Pace Question

[Pell Mell]

In order to frame my question correctly I'd like to use an analogy, and since I was involved in auto racing for many years, I will use that as an example.
In drag racing there are 2 clockings; top speed and elapsed time. I'll not get into a lot of details but the car that's going fastest at the end doesn't always win the race. The car with the lowest elapsed time wins.
I raced open wheel dirt cars for many years. We had a term called hard power and soft power which was determined by the way an engine was built. A high revving high horsepower engine was called soft power while a lower revving high torque engine was called hard power. The difference was, all other things like suspension, tires, gear ratios, etc. being equal or correct, the soft powered car would be going faster at the end of the straight but the hard powered car would be faster coming out of the corner. The hard powered car requires a much more sensitive foot to combat wheel spin when accelerating off the turn.
In most races the cars that can get off the turn fastest usually win. You can see this when watching the NASCAR races on the short tracks.

Now, my question is; When pace handicapping using early and late pace, how would you determine at what point in the race the closer's high late speed would overtake the frontrunner's diminishing speed? I know that splits are used to determine early and late pace but aren't the splits broken into 1/8s or 1/16s? Since most races are decided by a length or so, this is a far cry from an eighth of a mile.
Is there a mathematical way to determine exactly where the point is that the horse traveling at the highest rate of speed at the end of the race succeeds or fails to overcome the early speed? I know that some handicappers break a race down to average speed like fps, but that is an average for the distance. Let's say horse A is traveling 35mph for a portion of the race while horse B is doing 25mph. At the end of the race horse A is now doing 25mph while horse B is now doing 30mph. At the end of the race I wouldn't expect horse B to be going as fast as horse A did in the early part. At any rate, how would you decide at what point the speeds overlapped each other?
I don't know if I'm really phrasing the question correctly but I hope you get my drift.

http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/
:confused:

[DJofSD]

IMO, the short answer is no, unless you have access to data like TRAKUS.

Your auto racing analogy assumes continous data is available, i.e. you can get the velocity information continously throughout each and every second of the race.

In traditional PPs, you only have information at the points of call, and, it is flawed. Let's just make it simple by saying unless you are only measuring the leader and you have 1/100ths resolution, and, the leader goes wire-to-wire, the traditional point of call/beaten lengths is going to introduce errors.

The bottom line: you are looking for a lot of data in order to determine what physists would call instaneous velocity and acceleration. You ain't got that when it comes to the ponies.

[Pell Mell]

IMO, the short answer is no, unless you have access to data like TRAKUS.

Your auto racing analogy assumes continous data is available, i.e. you can get the velocity information continously throughout each and every second of the race.

In traditional PPs, you only have information at the points of call, and, it is flawed. Let's just make it simple by saying unless you are only measuring the leader and you have 1/100ths resolution, and, the leader goes wire-to-wire, the traditional point of call/beaten lengths is going to introduce errors.

The bottom line: you are looking for a lot of data in order to determine what physists would call instaneous velocity and acceleration. You ain't got that when it comes to the ponies.

If there are flaws in the basic information why are cappers trying to get a number that is down to the nth degree. Or, why all the hair splitting?

http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/

[raybo]

If there are flaws in the basic information why are cappers trying to get a number that is down to the nth degree. Or, why all the hair splitting?

http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/

Because we're all competing against one another, and the ones with the most thorough and accurate data, despite the flawed raw data, has the edge, at least in the handicapping phase. The wagering phase really determines who is profitable and who is not.

[thaskalos]

If there are flaws in the basic information why are cappers trying to get a number that is down to the nth degree. Or, why all the hair splitting?

http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/ Even with the "flaws in the basic information", there is still an oppressive takeout to overcome...and - unfortunately - simplistic, "cookie-cutter" methods won't do the job...

[skate]

all these answers are 'right on', but the only figure that is close to being exact, is the odds figure, even that changes after you place your bet.


which all zerros in on "if you want exactness, you are wasting your time", that's because you dont need to be exact.

[DJofSD]

all these answers are 'right on', but the only figure that is close to being exact, is the odds figure, even that changes after you place your bet.


which all zerros in on "if you want exactness, you are wasting your time", that's because you dont need to be exact.
Say what?

[raybo]

all these answers are 'right on', but the only figure that is close to being exact, is the odds figure, even that changes after you place your bet.


which all zerros in on "if you want exactness, you are wasting your time", that's because you dont need to be exact.

Then why not just bet the color of the horse, should be close enough, huh? :bang:

[DJofSD]

Then why not just bet the color of the horse, should be close enough, huh? :bang:
Ditto. Expect my initial thought was more "colorful".

[classhandicapper]

There is a complexity to this issue that is not easily resolved even if we had fractions by 1/8th and 1/16th.

Ideally, when horses cross the finish line they should be close to the point where they are about to start decelerating quickly. If that's not the case, you can argue that had the horse moved sooner, it might have finished in a faster final time.

In fact though, that's sometimes the case.

Jockeys use the other horses in a race as a prompter. They usually make their moves at specific points in the race based on position and not based on how much they think they have left in the tank. So some horses cross the finish line dead tired and others still have quite a bit of stmina left in reserve even when they finish together.

That's why some handicappers like to watch how horses "go out" after the finish to try to guage how much stamina and energy the horse had in reserve. It's sometimes a clue that the horse would be capable of running faster if used sooner and harder while another would wilt badly if asked for the same.

I know I haven't answered any of your question, but I think horse racing and car racing aren't exactly alike in that regard.

[DJofSD]

Ideally, when horses cross the finish line they should be close to the point where they are about to start decelerating quickly.

Why is that ideal?

They already are decelerating unless you are looking at some turf races. How do you qualify decelerating quickly?

[DJofSD]

Jockeys use the other horses in a race as a prompter. They usually make their moves at specific points in the race based on position and not based on how much they think they have left in the tank. So some horses cross the finish line dead tired and others still have quite a bit of stmina left in reserve even when they finish together.

To a large degree, I agree. But my take is there is a natural affinity of the horse that determines where it wants to position itself relative to the herd. The jockey takes advantage of that tendency as much as he can.

Most horses want to be in the middle. That is more or less a way to protect themselves by an attack from a predator. Other horse want to be elsewhere - in the back or at the front.

As to whether or not there is anything left when a horse crosses the finish line, I believe that is a complex issue. Pace, breeding, trip, weather, the jocks ability (or lack thereof), surface and other factors all factor into how much the horse has left "in the tank".

[RXB]

Ideally, when horses cross the finish line they should be close to the point where they are about to start decelerating quickly.


There's definitely a fatigue level at which a runner "redlines" and the deceleration rate starts to spiral. You see it in frontrunning horses that are still right there at the 1/8th pole and then finish 10 lengths back.

Of course, sometimes the redline risk is less than the risk of allowing another horse to cruise in front, or getting stuck in traffic, and so the jockey might ask the horse sooner/harder than might be ideal if a race was just a matter of optimizing final time.

[skate]

once in a while...i assume too much, sorry.


i jump ahead, my fault. i do not have the time, nor the skill to get lengthy.


Look, i refer to the original post, to me the poster was asking for possible precise, or at least more accurate figures, such as those figures available to race car drivers.

to me "figures are available", but the only real good, exact figures, which are available in race car driving, are not available in horse racing.
therefore, the only real good reliable figures in horse racing are the "odds".

So...the question, why not availability? The answer, my opinion, depends on just how you cap your race.

Cappers use , for example "pace", "speed", "Class", "breeding" all of which are a duplication from each other. Not saying that these are the only figures, or points of interest while capping, as mentioned above, color might be a favorite of yours.

Many use jocks, trainers, weather, bias or even favorite numbers etc.

All of which are just fine and dandy, im not to argue.

But if you are to take "ANY" figures from the above, none will match the consistency of the "ODDS" figure.

Use your method. Let's say you come up with a fig. 345 and another fig. 346, dose not matter, what, how or whatever these figures represent, higher could be better or lower could be better for your concern.

What im saying is that the one ture fig. will remain..."ODDS", and that is the deciding fig....always. Hey, the higher the better...bingo!

This is not noteworthy if not for the FACT that cappers will take (after capping the race) "the lowest figure", why, because ...welp, people are people.

This was just my little attempt to perhaps lend a little thought to that which i see happening daily.

True example, i'll call him Bob, an owner of horses, has more than a few dollars.
I gave him horse # 1 at 20/1 and horse #2 at 2/1, he bets #2 over the #1...:bang:

[Horsepicker]

The race is in the Match-Up, period.

Read Tom Brohamers "Modern Pace Handicapping" and focus on the chapters of Turn-Time and Lone Earlys.

Don't focus on the method, focus on the principle.

Horses don't race against, owners, pars, class, front wraps, computer software ratings, etc.., horse race against other horse's in the race.

A horse don't know how much he is worth.

A horse don't know he is under Beyer par.

A horse don't know that he is racing against another horse who is trained by Bob Baffert.

Some horse is going to get the lead, and the others try to catch'em, if they don't catch him, he wins, if they do, who is going to catch him?

Every race is a unique race and Match Up, and will NEVER , EVER, be run again.

What is he facing TODAY?

Can he win on the lead?

At what call do others like to challenge?

Who can fight off the challenge and finish strongly?

What position or positions does he like to win or do well?

Will others steal his position TODAY?

Who is the Late horse who is going to pick up the pieces, passing tiring horses who are STOPPING in front of him after exerting ALL of their available energy?

What can the HORSE do?

Horsepicker

[skate]

OK picker, what you say is true, cept for the Period part.


Question for you, are they sending the horse? And are the others running also being sent.

Would you play your horse at 3/1?
Would you play the same horse at 8/1?
Or does it matter to you?

\ In other words, when your match up fig. are the best , do you play no matter what the odds?

[Horsepicker]

The Match Up does not care about "sending" horses, thats for the 99% of the "crowd".

The Match Up does not care about "figures", the fastest horse who can sustain his energy until the end of the race has the best chance to win.

Very few can use "figures" to help them see the race clearly, they get so caught up in the numbers, they forget it is a horse race.

Find who is "THE" horse, then decide if you are going to bet him at low odds or not.

If you can't find the winner or know who has the best chance to win, it does not matter what he will pay, cause you won't have him.

If a horse MUST go wire to wire to win the race, and there are several horses faster than him to the first call, it does not matter if they are "sending" him..., they are "sending" him to get his ass kicked and finish up the track.

Again, horses race against "other" horses, not man made ideas.

If we can't find the winner in todays race or odds too low, pass the race, practice some more, stay away from certain races until one gets better, use the horse in rolling doubles, pick 3's , or go play golf.

Again, The Match Up supercedes EVERYTHING, PERIOD.

Horsepicker

[Tom]

Very few can use "figures" to help them see the race clearly, they get so caught up in the numbers, they forget it is a horse race.

And you know this how?:rolleyes:

[Horsepicker]

And you know this how?:rolleyes:



Don't worry about it. Just keep the betting the ponies. :rolleyes:

Horsepicker

[Tom]

Thinking you had some facts to back up your claims...my bad.

[Horsepicker]

Thinking you had some facts to back up your claims...my bad.



You care about facts!?!? Really?

You don't know the FACT that horses have to beat the "other" horses in the race to win or that horses run against other horses in the race to win?

You NEED evidence of this FACT?

Nawwwwwwww, dude, MY bad.

Horsepicker

[Tom]

No, drama queen, see Post #18 - can you read?

[Horsepicker]

No, drama queen, see Post #18 - can you read?



Monkey boy, Post #17 is as clear as sunshine, especially paragraph six, it answers your question so clearly, so I'm wondering if you can read ?

Horsepicker

[Tom]

Monkey boy, Post #17 is as clear as sunshine, especially paragraph six, it answers your question so clearly, so I'm wondering if you can read ?

Horsepicker
From post #17 -
Very few can use "figures" to help them see the race clearly, they get so caught up in the numbers, they forget it is a horse race.

I challenge your assumption and asked you to prove it. Obviously you cannot and obviously, you know it. So far you have offered nothing but opinions, much of it obviously wrong. Coming here and poinding your chest with absolutes when you can't back it up is rather silly. Surely a man of your vast experience and knowledge can provide proof of statements, unless the statement was a pile of BS.

Perhaps you should end your posts: Comma.

[pktruckdriver]

Again, The Match Up supercedes EVERYTHING, PERIOD.


Hey Tom

It seems that all we need is to Match up and we will be winners Period.

[DJofSD]

Again, The Match Up supercedes EVERYTHING, PERIOD.

Horsepicker

That's not true and you know it.

And don't start quoting chapter and verse from the Sartin play book. If you don't realize it, quiet a number of folks here at Mike's place use Doc's and Jimmy's brain child. The difference is they realize the only absolute is there aren't any absolutes -- in handicapping and in life.

[pktruckdriver]

Yes

Please do not think I am making light of Jim Bradshaw and Doc's work, as I am most definitely not, because they were winners.

Patrick

[Horsepicker]

I challenge your assumption and asked you to prove it. Obviously you cannot and obviously, you know it. So far you have offered nothing but opinions, much of it obviously wrong. Coming here and poinding your chest with absolutes when you can't back it up is rather silly. Surely a man of your vast experience and knowledge can provide proof of statements, unless the statement was a pile of BS.

Perhaps you should end your posts: Comma.





Hey....,... dude.., why are you trolling, like some scavenger?

I was answering the posters request, which obviously was totally lost on your part with your thirst for blood, like a true parasite.

Your challenge is moot and disallowed, you are neither contributing to the posters question and , as usual , inserted your venom into the warmest blood you can sniff out.

Your opinion of what I offered and your conclusions are hallucinogenic and your stipulation on anything is less than an apparition.

Anyone can check your post, and most of it is nothing but opinion supported by charlatan sources.

Yes, I'll end my post, when you quit butting in and opening your trap.

Horsepicker

[Horsepicker]

That's not true and you know it.

And don't start quoting chapter and verse from the Sartin play book. If you don't realize it, quiet a number of folks here at Mike's place use Doc's and Jimmy's brain child. The difference is they realize the only absolute is there aren't any absolutes -- in handicapping and in life.



In order for a horse to win, or be considered a winner, guess what?

There have to be "other" horses in the race for him to beat.

If Micheal Jordan were to play YOU one on one, you can have the best trainer in the world, the best conditioning coach, you can pick to play at your house, sports area, dirt lot, he is going to beat you.

But you can't know that until you know who your competitor is, which is Micheal Jordan, The Match Up, YOU vs Mike.

You might have a chance if he broke his leg before the game, played hoops in 4 feet of mud or play in rollerskates.

The other factors are minor and secondary vs who will be your competitor.

Horsepicker

[Horsepicker]

Hey Tom

It seems that all we need is to Match up and we will be winners Period.





Yo, what is this, a bar scene?

Tom is a grown man, let him speak for himself.

What are you, protecting your man-wife or something?

Why are you egging dude on like some drunk 56 year old skinhead in a gang looking to beat some kid up?

Why don't you simply answer the poster's question and quit looking for target practice like your buddy?

He's " DEFINITELY " NOT looking for answers, quite the opposite.

Horsepicker

[Tom]

Talk about your trolls!
I asked you a very simple questions and you cannot answer it because your post was total BS from the git go. You have NO CLUE how anyone uses figs. Actually, several of us were help[ing the posters, by exposing the BS your offered him.

Btw, what was your last handle here? You sound familiar. :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Yo, what is this, a bar scene?

Tom is a grown man, let him speak for himself.

What are you, protecting your man-wife or something?

Why are you egging dude on like some drunk 56 year old skinhead in a gang looking to beat some kid up?

Why don't you simply answer the poster's question and quit looking for target practice like your buddy?

He's " DEFINITELY " NOT looking for answers, quite the opposite.

HorsepickerYour inflammatory rhetoric is bringing you dangerously close to being kicked off the island. I realize you probably don't care one way or the other, but I thought I'd just let you know as a courtesy.

[Horsepicker]

Talk about your trolls!
I asked you a very simple questions and you cannot answer it because your post was total BS from the git go. You have NO CLUE how anyone uses figs. Actually, several of us were help[ing the posters, by exposing the BS your offered him.

Btw, what was your last handle here? You sound familiar.



I was here answering posters question, not yours.

The poster did'nt ask for editorial assistance, the person can discern and think for themselves, pick what they want, and throw out what they don't want to use.

Now, you are making assumptions and opinions about what I know or don't know.

Do yourself a favor and don't do the poster ANY favors, your not the posters mommy.

Your opinion and conclusion about what is BS and what is not is unimportant and irrelevant, except in your skull , in the universe of you.

You wanna be a hall monitor, I'm sure there are plenty of schools looking for volunteers.

And quit crying to "daddy and your buds", if someone wants to invite your monitoring, they'll ask.

Horsepicker

[Horsepicker]

Your inflammatory rhetoric is bringing you dangerously close to being kicked off the island. I realize you probably don't care one way or the other, but I thought I'd just let you know as a courtesy.




You're kidding me, right!?

You're really saying that with a "straight" face?

You allow Tom and his buddies, gang up on political topics laced with racial innuendos, bashing anyone , for fun and sport, who don't agree or give an "amen brother" in their views or opinions.

Or they just make extremist political rhetoric among themselves and amusing themselves, which obviously there must be some kinship of such opinion by whoever is in charge of this board, otherwise THEY would be warned for CODE OF CONDUCT, and no, those malicious, veiled attacks on their targets they do is not defensible under free speech, unless I mis-read the title of this forum and its the "Sectarian Supremacist Message Board".

Inflammatory?

Compared to the style and unrelenting vitriol of political topics your "friends" crank out at a break-neck pace, I'm a baby lamb just born.

They constantly pick fights, yet, the administration here is silent as midnight.

Five or more guys fighting, and you want to pick me out and arrest me, like a small town good 'ole boy sheriff who never arrest his buddies, the stranger in town has to be the guilty one, " go on home boys, I'll take care of this", as he spits out his chewing tobacco.

Of course you would discipline your "friends" just as fast as you would anyone else, right?

Fairness and Justice, even-steven, equality across the board, correct?

Horsepicker

[Tom]

And I though Japan was having a meltdown! :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

Your inflammatory rhetoric is bringing you dangerously close to being kicked off the island. I realize you probably don't care one way or the other, but I thought I'd just let you know as a courtesy.

archive

[PaceAdvantage]

You're kidding me, right!?

You're really saying that with a "straight" face?

You allow Tom and his buddies, gang up on political topics laced with racial innuendos, bashing anyone , for fun and sport, who don't agree or give an "amen brother" in their views or opinions.

Or they just make extremist political rhetoric among themselves and amusing themselves, which obviously there must be some kinship of such opinion by whoever is in charge of this board, otherwise THEY would be warned for CODE OF CONDUCT, and no, those malicious, veiled attacks on their targets they do is not defensible under free speech, unless I mis-read the title of this forum and its the "Sectarian Supremacist Message Board".

Inflammatory?

Compared to the style and unrelenting vitriol of political topics your "friends" crank out at a break-neck pace, I'm a baby lamb just born.

They constantly pick fights, yet, the administration here is silent as midnight.

Five or more guys fighting, and you want to pick me out and arrest me, like a small town good 'ole boy sheriff who never arrest his buddies, the stranger in town has to be the guilty one, " go on home boys, I'll take care of this", as he spits out his chewing tobacco.

Of course you would discipline your "friends" just as fast as you would anyone else, right?

Fairness and Justice, even-steven, equality across the board, correct?

HorsepickerOff topic? What the heck does that have to do with anything? This is the horse racing section, where things are run a little differently. But since you brought it up, I usually put the whistle away in off-topic, except for the most extreme violations.

That goes for EVERYONE in off topic. I'm sure you simply missed all the times people not named Tom (or his "buddies") spewed extremest political rhetoric. I see you've been here since 2007, so I know you didn't miss that...

You aren't doing yourself any favors with this nonsense of a reply, but you are making my job easier.

[Horsepicker]

Don't worry about it. Just keep the betting the ponies. :rolleyes:

Horsepicker




He sarcastically asked me a question and that was my response.

I'm essentially walking away from him, yet, he follows me, egging me on.

HE started in FIRST on the name calling and snide-ass remarks.

But when I give it right back to him, now I'M the one who gets warned, go figure.

Horsepicker

[PaceAdvantage]

Your smug, condescending reply #19 that you just quoted is on par with being called a drama queen, don't you think?

Why not just answer the question posed in reply #18? Seems that reply #19 was just someone begging for a battle.

[Horsepicker]

Ok, this is your board and you are going to be right regardless.

You are inferring that he simply asked a question.

He is asking it rolling his eyes..., put the mouse arrow on this :rolleyes: , and read what it describes the character.

Look up sarcastic and its synonyms:



Main Entry: abusive

Part of Speech: adjective

Definition: exhibiting unkind behavior or words

Synonyms: calumniating, castigating, censorious, contumelious, defamatory, derisive, disparaging, insolent, insulting, invective, libelous, maligning, obloquious, offensive, opprobrious, reproachful, reviling, rude, sarcastic, scathing, scolding, scurrilous, sharp-tongued, slanderous, traducing, upbraiding, vilifying, vituperative



His question was not in good faith, and his M.O. is always the above descriptions.

But you can dissect , scrutinize and analyze MY response.

And you have yet to even comment on anything he, specifically, did negative or that it was negative.

So saying "Don't worry about it, keep betting the ponies" = the same as calling someone a "Drama Queen"......, ok, got it.

This is your board, and you can run it as you see fit.

Horsepicker

[DJofSD]

Ok, this is your board and you are going to be right regardless.

You are inferring that he simply asked a question.

He is asking it rolling his eyes..., put the mouse arrow on this :rolleyes: , and read what it describes the character.

Look up sarcastic and its synonyms:



His question was not in good faith, and his M.O. is always the above descriptions.

But you can dissect , scrutinize and analyze MY response.

And you have yet to even comment on anything he, specifically, did negative or that it was negative.

So saying "Don't worry about it, keep betting the ponies" = the same as calling someone a "Drama Queen"......, ok, got it.

This is your board, and you can run it as you see fit.

Horsepicker

Dude, are you this hyper-sensitive in real life?

[DJofSD]

Well, horsepicker, I think you've crossed the line. This is not off topics. And, if the best you can do is to take a swipe at a celebrity as some sort of response then I guess you just can't take the heat now, can you?

[PaceAdvantage]

What a shame...another who can't differentiate off topic from horse racing. Oh well...

[Tom]

You are inferring that he simply asked a question.

He is asking it rolling his eyes..., put the mouse arrow on this :rolleyes: , and read what it describes the character.

Look up sarcastic and its synonyms:

Call 60 Minutes! Call FOX!
Breaking NEWS!

Someone comes on here and posts a comment hat most people who use figures don't understand them, while MANY here not only use them successfully, but make them as well. I found this to be an unsubstantiated insult to us all, so I asked how he came to this conclusion. Everything he has posted so far proves he was talking BS through his hat.

Sarcastic........duh, obviously! :lol:

[AlanBaze]

He may have been non productive in other posters opinions, yet I see little production in the latter replies. It seem a little like the good old Boys club when the man of power lectures one and talks to his buddies what a shame it is that this person does not know what he is talking about. I think most posters here are not about to or even can post credibility of there success.(ROI) It's a collaboration of ideas in my opinion. If you do not like what the man says go to the next thread. Its just unattractive to read grown men using unproductive power in this way. Go to the next thread.

[PaceAdvantage]

He may have been non productive in other posters opinions, yet I see little production in the latter replies. It seem a little like the good old Boys club when the man of power lectures one and talks to his buddies what a shame it is that this person does not know what he is talking about. I think most posters here are not about to or even can post credibility of there success.(ROI) It's a collaboration of ideas in my opinion. If you do not like what the man says go to the next thread. Its just unattractive to read grown men using unproductive power in this way. Go to the next thread.So you would characterize the majority of Horsepicker's replies in this thread as productive? Perhaps he should have ignored whatever caused him to blow such an obvious gasket.

And this whole "boys club" theme is utter bullshit. I'm lecturing Boxcar as we speak in off-topic. I'm sure you would consider him part of the "boys club" simply because he isn't a liberal democrat, or whatever other horseshit ideas HorsePicker tried to peddle in this thread, which was SUPPOSED to be about HORSE RACING, not POLITICS or what happens in OFF TOPIC.

BTW, it's interesting that you used one of your 11 lifetime posts over three years to chime in under this thread. Way to be productive. :ThmbUp:

[AlanBaze]

It is this type of hostility that makes it non Productive. This will be the last of my opinion. Hope the rest of your day is better:)

[Tom]

Lots of intelligent, innovative ideas presented here over the years - tons of things you don't see anywhere else.

Funny you have been lurking that long and missed it all.
Your loss, not ours.

PA runs a fair board here.
To say otherwise is just ignorance.

[PaceAdvantage]

Hope the rest of your day is better:)My day has been quite pleasant since the moment I awoke. Careful on the assumptions you make.

[Sekrah]

Again, The Match Up supercedes EVERYTHING, PERIOD.




Disagree completely. Form supercedes everything. A horses form is constantly changing variable. It's a moving target for handicappers trying to figure out who is the best horse TODAY.

"Match Up supercedes Everything, Period." Sounds like you are proudly declaring that a horses fitness never changes and the results of the race are based purely on the competition he's facing today. Ludicrous.

Too often do horses not run their best efforts and there isn't an excuse in the world for them. A horse that couldn't sustain his energy after a :46 half mile one day, can now sustain it 2 months later. Why? His form changed.

Speed figures and Pace figures are valuable tools IMO, but they are useless if they aren't being utilized to try to pick up on form patterns.

Think about this everytime you look at horses last race. The VAST MAJORITY of time, the horses is in different form today than he was then. Is he in form better or worse? That's for you to figure out.


A horses's condition is a constantly moving target, PERIOD.

[HUSKER55]

maybe it is the way I do things but if I think the form is good then I will give a few lengths. There are lots of times I don't bet the fastest horse.

I also pay alot of attention to style and form

[raybo]

Who was it that used to preach "The Matchup"? Sounds like the same guy, must be contagious, because all those guys think there's only one way to skin this cat.

[hrspwr]

Ok, this is your board and you are going to be right regardless.

You are inferring that he simply asked a question.

He is asking it rolling his eyes..., put the mouse arrow on this :rolleyes: , and read what it describes the character.

Look up sarcastic and its synonyms:



His question was not in good faith, and his M.O. is always the above descriptions.

But you can dissect , scrutinize and analyze MY response.

And you have yet to even comment on anything he, specifically, did negative or that it was negative.

So saying "Don't worry about it, keep betting the ponies" = the same as calling someone a "Drama Queen"......, ok, got it.

This is your board, and you can run it as you see fit.

Horsepicker

What was the question? Doesn't matter now. I love this place. LOL

[skate]

Now, my question is; When pace handicapping using early and late pace, how would you determine at what point in the race the closer's high late speed would overtake the frontrunner's diminishing speed? I know that splits are used to determine early and late pace but aren't the splits broken into 1/8s or 1/16s? Since most races are decided by a length or so, this is a far cry from an eighth of a mile.
Is there a mathematical way to determine exactly where the point is that the horse traveling at the highest rate of speed at the end of the race succeeds or fails to overcome the early speed? I know that some handicappers break a race down to average speed like fps, but that is an average for the distance. Let's say horse A is traveling 35mph for a portion of the race while horse B is doing 25mph. At the end of the race horse A is now doing 25mph while horse B is now doing 30mph. At the end of the race I wouldn't expect horse B to be going as fast as horse A did in the early part. At any rate, how would you decide at what point the speeds overlapped each other?
I don't know if I'm really phrasing the question correctly but I hope you get my drift.

http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/
:confused:

i think it is a good question, i can only answer in my own cases, tracks, distance, surface among other points, will make a difference.

My answer is the second call, but im not using your term "exactness" here.

That's why i went Off with what i consider the only "exact number" is your odds number.

we had some drifting of opinions here.

[skate]

Then why not just bet the color of the horse, should be close enough, huh? :bang:

huh?

[skate]

Say what?


if you are asking a question, i'll need more than your "Say What", what say.


Or , you can just go back and read again;)

i know, tant easy

[dkithore]

Since I am dabbling with Australia Horse Racing, and some of you are more versatile in evaluating international horse racing, can you suggest how I can get handle on using horses' position in the race to measure their relative ability/performance for Handicapping purposes.

I use Av. Purse Value for class and speed figures provided by Brisnet. I am not sure how good they are. PPs don't have sectional times either. Only positions at Finish, turn, 6F from finish, 4 f from finish etc.

Any suggestion is appreciated.


DK

[HUSKER55]

i have found that depending on purse value for determining class to be a waste of effort, for me.

I concentrate on current form, and current condition and how well a horse stays in contention.

[thaskalos]

Disagree completely. Form supercedes everything.
IMO...nothing supercedes everything!

Every race is a puzzle...and each handicapping factor has its own unique role to play in the grand scheme of things.

A single handicapping factor may dominate in some cases - because of the characteristics of individual races - but it is folly to think that any ONE factor towers over the others in importance.

[Greyfox]

IMO...nothing supercedes everything!

Every race is a puzzle...and each handicapping factor has its own unique role to play in the grand scheme of things.

A single handicapping factor may dominate in some cases - because of the characteristics of individual races - but it is folly to think that any ONE factor towers over the others in importance.

Exactly. :ThmbUp:

[Greyfox]

Now, my question is; When pace handicapping using early and late pace, how would you determine at what point in the race the closer's high late speed would overtake the frontrunner's diminishing speed?

Excellent question.
In line with what Thaskalos has stated above about every race being a unique puzzle, the point in the race where the closer's high late speed will overtake the front runner's diminishing speed will vary depending on:

1. today's track surface (on some surfaces the closer's probability of passing may be past the finish line)
2. the "shape of the race"
3. the distance of the race

[raybo]

IMO...nothing supercedes everything!

Every race is a puzzle...and each handicapping factor has its own unique role to play in the grand scheme of things.

A single handicapping factor may dominate in some cases - because of the characteristics of individual races - but it is folly to think that any ONE factor towers over the others in importance.

Perhaps if he had used the word "determines" instead of "superc(s)edes", his statement might have been more widely accepted.

I firmly believe that current form/condition determines current speed ability, current pace ability, current class, etc., etc..

But, supersedes is a bit strong.

[raybo]

Excellent question.
In line with what Thaskalos has stated above about every race being a unique puzzle, the point in the race where the closer's high late speed will overtake the front runner's diminishing speed will vary depending on:

1. today's track surface (on some surfaces the closer's probability of passing may be past the finish line)
2. the "shape of the race"
3. the distance of the race

I agree, there is no universal point in races where the 2 overlap. That point varies from race to race, and pace battle to pace battle.

[thaskalos]

Perhaps if he had used the word "determines" instead of "superc(s)edes", his statement might have been more widely accepted.

I firmly believe that current form/condition determines current speed ability, current pace ability, current class, etc., etc..

But, supersedes is a bit strong.
I understand the point you are trying to make...but how would you define "current form/condition"?

I regularly see horses who seem to be hopelessly OUT of form...and yet, a well-calculated drop in class often leads them to the winners circle.

Is this a testament to current form/condition...or to class?

Can these different handicapping factors be clearly defined...or do they overlap each other?

[raybo]

I understand the point you are trying to make...but how would you define "current form/condition"?

I regularly see horses who seem to be hopelessly OUT of form...and yet, a well-calculated drop in class often leads them to the winners circle.

Is this a testament to current form/condition...or to class?

Can these different handicapping factors be clearly defined...or do they overlap each other?

My meaning here refers to a horse's form cycle.

An out of form horse, dropping in class and winning, is obviously a class vs current ability example. I'm not saying that an out of form horse cannot win, just not at his "in form" level.

Yes, the factors overlap, but it is my belief that current form will determine at what class level, distance, track/surface/condition, race pace, running style matchup, etc., the horse can be successful.

[Fastracehorse]

If there are flaws in the basic information why are cappers trying to get a number that is down to the nth degree. Or, why all the hair splitting?

http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/

.........hairsplitting doesn't work IMO. Find a pace and speed figure with "an about" mentality and you are fine.

A player needs to be able to compare performances reasonably when it is possible to. So if the horse ran between an 80 - 90 do you think it has a good chance against a horse that ran between a 75 -85?

Even with "an about" approach you CAN still get great overlays.

It is also a healthier approach because this game isn't just about Past Performances - it's about Today's Performances! And there are many factors that affect TP's, not the least being horse health.

To re-capitulate, hair-splitting is for PP's and is not as effective for TP's.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

I understand the point you are trying to make...but how would you define "current form/condition"?

I regularly see horses who seem to be hopelessly OUT of form...and yet, a well-calculated drop in class often leads them to the winners circle.

Is this a testament to current form/condition...or to class?

Can these different handicapping factors be clearly defined...or do they overlap each other?

......sometimes it is a strategic drop signifying form for the drop. Class may be better suited for horses that are in form because a dropper not doing well may run poorly.

But I know you know this.

fffastt