Gulfstream 10 cent pick 6

[redeye007]

has anyone tried this wager yet? This is a very atttractive proposition. the pick 6 is normally a $2 wager so for a dime you can play a lot of entries. the jackpot pool keeps carrying over until one single winner snags the whole pot! My kind of bet :)

[Stillriledup]

I'm waiting for a closing day mandatory payout, hopefully the pot will be huge enough. That way, if i hit it, i actually get paid. (i know, novel concept)

[singletax]

I take a shot with a mixed bag of mid priced and long shots. I prefer larger fields more selections. For 10 cents a bet I keep it cheap. Usually I'll pick two horses each race. I try to keep favorites to a minimum because you have to have the only ticket to win the jackpot.

It is kind of like lottery tickets but better. I have more fun analyzing each race. My only question is the impact of the large syndicates or whales? Do they have all the potential bets covered?

[Stillriledup]

I take a shot with a mixed bag of mid priced and long shots. I prefer larger fields more selections. For 10 cents a bet I keep it cheap. Usually I'll pick two horses each race. I try to keep favorites to a minimum because you have to have the only ticket to win the jackpot.

It is kind of like lottery tickets but better. I have more fun analyzing each race. My only question is the impact of the large syndicates or whales? Do they have all the potential bets covered?

The latest pool of new money there was 169k. That's equivalent to 3.3 million into a large So Cal pick 6 . I guess the 64 dollar question is what are the odds that a So Cal pick 6 would be hit by 2 tickets or less.

Maybe if you invest 10 cents into the bet and single all 6 favorites, i mean, you should be the only winner, right?

Nobody else should be making that bet because they're supposed to think that if all 6 favorites win, there's 0 percent chance they'll be the only winner.

[redeye007]

If you were to get all 6 and not be the only ricket it still is paying good. saturday it paid over 9k for all 6. 7k after taxes, :ThmbUp:

[Spiderman]

I take a shot with a mixed bag of mid priced and long shots. I prefer larger fields more selections. For 10 cents a bet I keep it cheap. Usually I'll pick two horses each race. I try to keep favorites to a minimum because you have to have the only ticket to win the jackpot.

It is kind of like lottery tickets but better. I have more fun analyzing each race. My only question is the impact of the large syndicates or whales? Do they have all the potential bets covered?
There are probably several syndicates/whales who enter the pool and have huge coverage.

[vacationofwealth]

What is the takeout on this bet and what percentage is paid out daily vs. what percentage goes to the jackpot?

See today doing quick math there are about 900k combos and 148k was bet into pool meaning 1.48 mil combos. Unless 6 mid odds or bombs come in it is impossible to expect a single ticket. Quick pick is the way to go!

[boogsley]

Daily payout is 60%; if you have the only winning ticket, you take the pot. Such is my understanding. The guy who won the first Rainbow 6 pay out ($220+) spent more than $300 on the ticket (tried to find the link I read that at, and can't :confused:)

On one hand, I'm not a fan of it because the "unique ticket" angle makes it more of a lottery ticket than anything else. Also, the take out on that bet is insane - %52!!!

On the other hand... there's a lot of money in that pool...

Found an article that's pretty much in line with my views; part on the pick 6 is about half way down

http://www.dailyracingnews.com/industrynews/microbets-overall-the-benefits-trump-any-drawbacks-2/

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I believe on Friday (3/25), the probable payouts for the P6 showed four or five horses that were going to pay out the whole pool ($653K). Though a 10-1 shot won, there were multiple tickets with him, and it paid $8925. The winners were:

5th - $14.80
6th - $21.80
7th - $9.60
8th - $7.20
9th - $8.40
10th - $22.20

There were a couple of the JACKPOT horses I liked in the last race, and were under the winner's 10-1 odds, at least early. Although I would agree it's tough to hit the only winning ticket (by it's nature being difficult to handicap unless you're the ultimate contrarian), it's hardly impossible and not like the lottery or slots....and at least it gives me some incentive to handicap the card ahead of time - always a plus.....:)

[mistergee]

its been done 3 times during the meet

[statepierback]

It it once for a couple hundred with a $9.60 ticket. Played it about five times this meet. Fun bet but the pick 5 is better.

[OTM Al]

It it once for a couple hundred with a $9.60 ticket. Played it about five times this meet. Fun bet but the pick 5 is better.

Interesting blog piece I just saw stated closing day for the meet is Easter sunday. Some states are not allowed to operate racing on this day, New York being a big one.....

[Spiderman]

Interesting blog piece I just saw stated closing day for the meet is Easter sunday. Some states are not allowed to operate racing on this day, New York being a big one.....

I would like to play on closing day if pool continues to grow. However, njbets did not program to accept bet, even for $2 unit. I can name that tune with a 4x4x4x4x4x4=4096 tickets, divided by ten = $10 investment. Will be willing to partner with one or two others. If interested and able to make bet,send PM.

[Spiderman]

I would like to play on closing day if pool continues to grow. However, njbets did not program to accept bet, even for $2 unit. I can name that tune with a 4x4x4x4x4x4=4096 tickets, divided by ten = $10 investment. Will be willing to partner with one or two others. If interested and able to make bet,send PM.
Meant $410

[Stillriledup]

When is closing day?

[Charli125]

Interesting blog piece I just saw stated closing day for the meet is Easter sunday. Some states are not allowed to operate racing on this day, New York being a big one.....

Wow, that's a big mistake. The pool is going to handle a lot on closing day if it's still un-hit, but having NYRA shut out, as well as a lot of the semi-serious players that might actually be spending some time with their families, that's a pretty big loss.

I'll be flying back from Keeneland, but I'll make sure to put my play in before I get on the plane!

[OverlayHunter]

This question would have been better to post at the start of the GP meet but better late than never.

What are the best wagering strategies for this wager? I've never played the Pick 6 (neither the standard $2 variety or the $.10 version) but I'm thinking that $.10 version at least makes it affordable to put in the ticket sizes that are sometimes needed.

What makes for the best ticket construction and what kinds of decisions relative to chalk and mid-priced horses and longshots have to be considered?

[Spiderman]

This question would have been better to post at the start of the GP meet but better late than never.

What are the best wagering strategies for this wager? I've never played the Pick 6 (neither the standard $2 variety or the $.10 version) but I'm thinking that $.10 version at least makes it affordable to put in the ticket sizes that are sometimes needed.

What makes for the best ticket construction and what kinds of decisions relative to chalk and mid-priced horses and longshots have to be considered?

I build-up, first focusing on picking one horse as likely winner in each leg of the sequence, keeping aside contenders. I review the pps three times and view video replay for each contender, trying to find two singles on the ticket.

My ticket price range is $32 - $96 which is 1x1x2x2x2x2 for $32 or might be 1x1x2x2x3x4 for a $96 ticket. The ticket will not include more than three ml favorites. I don't like to go deeper than three in a race, prefer two.

[OverlayHunter]

Spiderman -

Thanks for your thoughts. However, the cost of you ticket is based on a $2.00 Pick 6. I'm trying to understand if the lower cost of the $.10 Pick 6 gives opportunities to construct tickets differently or if there are other strategies to exploit.

[Spiderman]

Spiderman -

Thanks for your thoughts. However, the cost of you ticket is based on a $2.00 Pick 6. I'm trying to understand if the lower cost of the $.10 Pick 6 gives opportunities to construct tickets differently or if there are other strategies to exploit.

My AdW is not programmed for dime version. I do have a strategy For GP dime: not more than one favorite; spice with third contenders and add two seemingly no-shot horses who may go to front or a deep closer if race has four early pace types. Use three or four horses per race.

[OverlayHunter]

Thanks for the insights.

[point given]

Per Ed Derosa @ Ttimes, the mandatory payout date will likely switch to Saturday instead of Easter Sunday.

http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2011/04/must-win-rainbow6-date-likely-to-move.html

[Cholly]

Friday’s Pick 6 @ GP paid $2,608 for a dime bet. That’s the equivalent of $52,160 for a conventional $2.00 Pick 6—not bad pay for a sequence with four favorites (including one odds-on and 2 at even-money) and a couple of 10-1 shots. Thursday paid $4,965 (equivalent to $99,300) for two favorites, two co-favorites, a 5-1 forth choice, and a 20-1 horse.

I suspect these exaggerated pay-outs are due to the plethora of tickets chasing the million dollar payday; some sharps finding low-hanging fruit while everyone else (like me) is staring at the sky.

[Valuist]

Crazy day on Thursday. There was one ticket alive to a 12-1 shot named Fly By Wildcat paying over $230,000. The horse opened up a seemingly insurmountable 7 length lead in the stretch before starting to stagger late, and get nailed by a nose at the wire by the chalk. Real tough beat for somebody.

[Spiderman]

Crazy day on Thursday. There was one ticket alive to a 12-1 shot named Fly By Wildcat paying over $230,000. The horse opened up a seemingly insurmountable 7 length lead in the stretch before starting to stagger late, and get nailed by a nose at the wire by the chalk. Real tough beat for somebody.
The payout woulda been $1.23 million

[Valuist]

I think the pool going into THIS Thursday is $1.3 million.

Which brings to mind...if nobody hits this thing before Sunday, how much will be in the pool for the mandatory payout? $10 million? $15 million? Have to think a lot of bettors who don't normally play the Pic 6 (myself included in that) will give it a run at $0.10 a ticket.

[Charli125]

I think the pool going into THIS Thursday is $1.3 million.

Which brings to mind...if nobody hits this thing before Sunday, how much will be in the pool for the mandatory payout? $10 million? $15 million? Have to think a lot of bettors who don't normally play the Pic 6 (myself included in that) will give it a run at $0.10 a ticket.

I'm going to guess just over 2 million. Maybe 2.2 or something like that. I think a lot of people will be taking a shot, but I don't see it doubling.

I'm planning an doing ABC tickets for different amounts since there's no reason to only do .10 cent tickets.

[Stillriledup]

I think the pool going into THIS Thursday is $1.3 million.

Which brings to mind...if nobody hits this thing before Sunday, how much will be in the pool for the mandatory payout? $10 million? $15 million? Have to think a lot of bettors who don't normally play the Pic 6 (myself included in that) will give it a run at $0.10 a ticket.

There's a huge shot it gets hit on the next racing day.

[Valuist]

There's a huge shot it gets hit on the next racing day.

Since there must be only one winner for it to be hit, I don't think there ever is a huge chance it gets hit on any particular day.

[trackcat]

Is this bet available to play on twinspires or link2bet ? Some types bets are not allowed online. Maybe because I live in Texas or for other reasons. I haven't played GPX this year and they do have some very nice payoffs if you can put it together in a 12 to 14 horse field. Anybody that has an online account and knows the answer please pass on some info. Thank You

Trackcat

[kingfin66]

You can definitely play the dime pick six on twin spires.

[Mike_412]

Does anyone know where the closest outlet to North Jersey this bet can be made? Just a bit curious. Thanks.

[trackcat]

Yes, you are right Kingfin, I put in two $10 shares on it at twinspires for saturday. Last I looked the pool was over 81k so they will have no problem hitting their 100k pot limit. I'll probaly make my own ticket also. Good Luck to you and all who play.

Trackcat

[toetoe]

... the take out on that bet is insane - %52!!! ...

[/url]



I've given this some more thought, and it seems Gulfstream's version is the worst-but-still-in-the-ballpark version of a difficult, usurious bet.



The lowest takeout I can think of is :

NYRA --- noncarryover: 37% for 6-o'6. Next best:

California --- every day: slightly >44%. Virtually tied at this figure:

NYRA --- carryover: 44.5%. As stated above:

Gulfstream --- shared every day: 52%.


Now, I admit that hitting 6-o'-6 in California or New York --- much less likelythan 5-o'-6, but possible --- will get you "latent value."



Here are the 5-o'-6 takeouts:

NYRA noncarryover @ 79%

NYRA carryover @ 81.5%

California every day @ slightly >76%



If I am wrong in assuming the following figures:

NYRA takeout 16% or 26%, NYRA split 75%/25%;

California takeout 20-ish%, California split 70%/30%;

Gulfstream takeout 20%, Gulfstream split 40%/60%,

please enlighten me. :)

[OTM Al]

Your splits are wrong in comparison. The NYRA and CA P6s pay out the entire amount less take in one form or another whenever all 6 are hit. Only on non winning days does only the conso payout go out. GP retains the entire 40% on any day when there is not 1 and only 1 winner. There are no consos paid out unless no one hits 6. Thus far fewer get paid anything and you face the 52% almost every day whether it is hit or not.

It's very hard to acurately give a takeout ex post on a NYRA/CA P6 winner as he also gets conso payouts, so the number you give would only be true if the player hit the bet on a single $2 ticket and thus had no share in the conso portion. So in sum, the GP bet is a much worse bet day to day than the NYRA/CA bets.

[toetoe]

Thanks for responding, OTMA.

Didn't I cover that when I conceded the latent value ? I understand it's 52% every day, but isn't it 44.5% every noncarryover day at NYRA tracks ?

I know you are making a good point --- I just haven't got it yet. :)

[Vinman]

As announced on the NYRA website today, NYRA will be taking bets on the Rainbow 6 on Saturday only. Wagering at Aqueduct and at the Belmont Cafe on the Rainbow 6 will be available on the self-service machines only, NOT with live tellers. Internet only wagering through NYRA Rewards accounts, NOT by phone.

Other than NYRA, the Rainbow 6 can be played at Harrah's Chester, the OTW restaurant in Reading, PA and at Capital OTB in upstate NY. Capital will let you open a wagering account online with an auto signature. Then you can fund the account via a number of methods.

The one edge Capital OTB has over the others is that they allow wagering with live tellers at their outlets AND by phone.


Vinman

[toetoe]

Preliminary 144-bucker, before scratches:



10 // * // * // 1,5,10 // 1,5,10 // 10.

[Rapid Grey]

I waited too long for the Players Pool but would hope they play one big ticket instead of multiples. The pool will be huge and the fields will all be at least 10 horses deep, the only thing that might effect that would be rain and races taken off the turf.

If the fields remain intact the payoff is going to be large imo.

[OTM Al]

Thanks for responding, OTMA.

Didn't I cover that when I conceded the latent value ? I understand it's 52% every day, but isn't it 44.5% every noncarryover day at NYRA tracks ?

I know you are making a good point --- I just haven't got it yet. :)

It's all in the conso payouts because a winning P6 ticket will get a lot of them. Say you had a ticket 3x3x1x4x2x5 that hits. Not only do you get paid from the win part once, but you also get paid from the conso part 2+2+0+3+1+4 = 12 times, so your payoff is coming from both parts of the pool. Say you missed only in leg 4. Then you only get 4 conso payments. So clearly, those that hit are also getting a good share of the conso pool as well. How this all figures though in terms of effective takeout faced is beyond me to calculate but you are getting payoffs from the entire pool. Only time you don't is when you win with a singles only ticket.

[garyscpa]

It's all in the conso payouts

But does this bet have the same 5 out of 6 conso payout as a regular Pick 6?

[NJ Stinks]

As announced on the NYRA website today, NYRA will be taking bets on the Rainbow 6 on Saturday only. Wagering at Aqueduct and at the Belmont Cafe on the Rainbow 6 will be available on the self-service machines only, NOT with live tellers. Internet only wagering through NYRA Rewards accounts, NOT by phone.

Other than NYRA, the Rainbow 6 can be played at Harrah's Chester, the OTW restaurant in Reading, PA and at Capital OTB in upstate NY. Capital will let you open a wagering account online with an auto signature. Then you can fund the account via a number of methods.

The one edge Capital OTB has over the others is that they allow wagering with live tellers at their outlets AND by phone.


Vinman

I guess the above means that NJBets.com does not accept bets on the Rainbow 6? Is that true, Vinman? Anyone? :confused:

[Spiderman]

I guess the above means that NJBets.com does not accept bets on the Rainbow 6? Is that true, Vinman? Anyone? :confused:
They do not. I checked yesterday.

[Sekrah]

Game On scratches out of the 1st leg, putting Indian Fog into the field.

[NJ Stinks]

They do not. I checked yesterday.

Thanks, Spiderman.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Game On scratches out of the 1st leg, putting Indian Fog into the field.
So much for keying the horse in the first leg that probably was going to run second.

[point given]

scratches as of 11:30 am

http://www.calderracecourse.com/racing-handicapping/program-changes