California Slip Sliding Away

[drib]

The recent betting numbers from both Santa Anita and Golden Gate are horrendous. Comparing comparable days from 2010 (no banner year there) the numbers are down about 25% for the last 2 weeks. There is a pretty consistent decline daily. A few weeks ago I pointed out the devastating effect of such decline in pool size on the top 10-20% of track customers. If these bettors (probably responsible for a large % of handle) bet the same amounts as a year ago, their finances will be hit by the double whammy of raise in takeout and acceleration of the negative effect of their bets on payoffs. No bettor can absorb this new burden of more than 5%. As noted earlier, this is an unprecedented decline in pool size never before seen on a major American thoroughbred circuit. I made the analogy of a snowball gathering size as it rolls downhill....Well Santa Anita and Golden Gate have moved further down that slide to oblivion. The results are going to get worse and more quickly. The CHRB and TOC are probably scrambling to avoid cutting purses (tho they have already chopped them quietly at Golden Gate), but the real problems for them are only getting started, and the fools just do not seem to understand.

[Stillriledup]

Management is looking at the guy on the first floor of the grandstand with holes in his sneakers kicking over discarded tickets and thinking "THATS what our customers look like"

If they're right, the takeout raise will be a success and they will prosper as the bottom level regulars will carry the mail and save the day. Those customers on the lower level will bet what they normally bet AND, get this, they will also go out and find more money to make up for the money they've lost more rapidly because of the takeout raise.

Time will tell if this is a pipe dream or not.

[DJofSD]

People are voting, not with their feet, but, with their money. I think the last CA race I wagered on was the Pacific Classic. No sh*t.

There has been a collection of little insults over the years. The take out increase on the exotics was the straw that broke the camels back. Screw CA, the CHRB, the TOC and track management. I still bet on out of state races, so, CA will still be getting some of my money. And, if CA finds a way to screw up out of state wagering, I'll just walk away. I've done it before and it's not that hard to do. Not every one that plays the game is an adict, wearing dirty, holy tennis shoes.

[BillW]

The sad thing is that the longer this goes on, the longer it will take to recover. At this point California has already lost players that will never come back. :(

[andymays]

The current meeting will be down anywhere from 75 to 100 million in handle by the end of the meet.

I can tell you that the Tracks have tried to make some adjustments earlier in the year but they really aren't in control of what is and isn't done. The blame is with the TOC and the CHRB. The TOC is in control in California and the Tracks basically have to beg them to make some changes. I wouldn't have believed they had this much power but the TOC dictates what happens out here. They need to go away in my opinion.

I know for a fact from being in the meetings that Hollywood Park is trying it's ass off to get some changes to the wagering menu for the upcoming meet. I hope they can get it done.

These are some small changes that have been suggested by Horseplayers. The low takeout exotic has the best shot of happening in the short term.

1. Penny or Nickel breakage.

2. Having a low takeout early pick 4 or pick 5 in the first race. The takeout on this should be anywhere from 12% to 14%. It will be popular and help raise handle on the rest of the card.

3. Since the leadership isn’t ready to rescind the takeout raise they should at least lower the exacta and daily doubles down 1%.

4. Increase rewards/rebates for California Horseplayers.

5. Having bonus payouts on track only.

[dansan]

its not only california I wont bet New York either that's been in the crapper for awhile also 4 horses fields what a joke

[jelly]

Agree,haven't bet NY or Cal. in some time.

[lamboguy]

The current meeting will be down anywhere from 75 to 100 million in handle by the end of the meet.

I can tell you that the Tracks have tried to make some adjustments earlier in the year but they really aren't in control of what is and isn't done. The blame is with the TOC and the CHRB. The TOC is in control in California and the Tracks basically have to beg them to make some changes. I wouldn't have believed they had this much power but the TOC dictates what happens out here. They need to go away in my opinion.

I know for a fact from being in the meetings that Hollywood Park is trying it's ass off to get some changes to the wagering menu for the upcoming meet. I hope they can get it done.

These are some small changes that have been suggested by Horseplayers. The low takeout exotic has the best shot of happening in the short term.

1. Penny or Nickel breakage.

2. Having a low takeout early pick 4 or pick 5 in the first race. The takeout on this should be anywhere from 12% to 14%. It will be popular and help raise handle on the rest of the card.

3. Since the leadership isn’t ready to rescind the takeout raise they should at least lower the exacta and daily doubles down 1%.

4. Increase rewards/rebates for California Horseplayers.

5. Having bonus payouts on track only.bonus payouts ontracks is an excellent idea

[andymays]

bonus payouts ontracks is an excellent idea

One thing I've learned in all this is that every jurisdiction has unique problems. Some of the decisions made in California over the last 5 years have accelerated the decline of racing out here. The takeout raise and the bad publicity caused by the Chairman and Vice Chairman of the CHRB along with the unwillingness of the TOC to give a damn about anyone but themeselves has caused a problem that might never be solved. California may not make it unless they pull their heads out and everyone starts working together.

[Charli125]

The current meeting will be down anywhere from 75 to 100 million in handle by the end of the meet.


Through yesterday Santa Anita is down 77.2 million and Golden Gate is down 19.3 million.

Like Bill said, CA is losing a lot of players that won't be able to just pick up playing if CA starts making the correct decisions. I know things look bad, and they'll continue to be bad, but the longer this goes on the more customers CA loses for good.

[andymays]

Through yesterday Santa Anita is down 77.2 million and Golden Gate is down 19.3 million.

Like Bill said, CA is losing a lot of players that won't be able to just pick up playing if CA starts making the correct decisions. I know things look bad, and they'll continue to be bad, but the longer this goes on the more customers CA loses for good.

Everyone seems to know that except the TOC and the leadership of the CHRB. It's a totally crazy situation. Increases in field size haven't happened and there is no relief in sight. Higher takeout and short fields are a recipe for what we're seeing in California.

[JustRalph]

The sad thing is that the longer this goes on, the longer it will take to recover. At this point California has already lost players that will never come back. :(

Coming up on the year anniversary since my last socal bet

I am not really missing it.

[Charli125]

Coming up on the year anniversary since my last socal bet

I am not really missing it.

The only thing that makes me miss it is when I print out my annual reports for my taxes and see my ROI at Delmar.

[rwwupl]

Through yesterday Santa Anita is down 77.2 million and Golden Gate is down 19.3 million.

Like Bill said, CA is losing a lot of players that won't be able to just pick up playing if CA starts making the correct decisions. I know things look bad, and they'll continue to be bad, but the longer this goes on the more customers CA loses for good.

Thank you Charlie 125 for a great job on keeping an eye on the numbers from California.

The numbers we get from the associations in California are twisted to put the best face on things.. and they are running out of excuses.

The fans are refusing to accept the product offered in California in an unprecidented show of economic withdrawal to wager.

There are meetings going on all over the place..seeking the less painful answers.

The ball is in the court of the California managers. Lets hope they reach the right conclusions. We have tried to help them along with our suggestions...Jeff, Andy and I...but we know there are many other factors too.

We all live in California... and want the outcome to be a positive thing in the long term for California and the rest of the horse racing industry.

Roger Way

[rwwupl]

Everyone seems to know that except the TOC and the leadership of the CHRB. It's a totally crazy situation. Increases in field size haven't happened and there is no relief in sight. Higher takeout and short fields are a recipe for what we're seeing in California.



I join you, Andy in your accurate assessment of things in California. The TOC always chooses to fix things by artificially raising purses at the expense of the customers, instead of helping to put on race cards that draw customers and handle the old fashioned way.

That makes the situation worse, by running customers off by charging more for the bet.

Could anything be more self serving? If the plan worked, that would be something, but it has never worked...not with S/B 27 ($40 million) a few years ago and not with S/B 1072 ($70 million) starting in 2011.

The reason we race is to produce a race card that attracts customers and handle so that the rest of the industry can be supported.

The TOC thinks the only purpose in racing is to support their membership.

They are from the original "me first" gang.. and need to see the big picture.

I hope they get it soon.

Roger Way

[Stillriledup]

I join you, Andy in your accurate assessment of things in California. The TOC always chooses to fix things by artificially raising purses at the expense of the customers, instead of helping to put on race cards that draw customers and handle the old fashioned way.

That makes the situation worse, by running customers off by charging more for the bet.

Could anything be more self serving? If the plan worked, that would be something, but it has never worked...not with S/B 27 ($40 million) a few years ago and not with S/B 1072 ($70 million) starting in 2011.

The reason we race is to produce a race card that attracts customers and handle so that the rest of the industry can be supported.

The TOC thinks the only purpose in racing is to support their membership.

They are from the original "me first" gang.. and need to see the big picture.

I hope they get it soon.

Roger Way

They (current leadership) don't get it and they never will. Ca racing needs to hit rock bottom, clean house and get new, young and fresh leadership with modern ideas in there to right the ship. The ship can be righted, but not under the current regime, they'll never admit their mistakes.

[drib]

its not only california I wont bet New York either that's been in the crapper for awhile also 4 horses fields what a joke

Right now, New York represents just as strong a problem for significant players as California. The loss of NYC OTB money in the pools (about 10%) really hurts b/c much of this OTB business consisted of unsophisticated players willing to pay an additional 6% surcharge. There is, of course, a huge difference b/c California self-created their situation with no obvious way out, while the future in New York should get better. Eventually a new entity will form to return that OTB money into the pools. NYRA has always been looking to lower takeout (totally opposite to the TOC and CHRB), but were stymied by the politically powerful OTB's. With the recent bankruptcy of the Suffolk OTB, the opposition is getting weaker. The coming slots money, hopefully, will give NYRA even a better chance of cutting the take in the coming years..

[Robert Goren]

They (current leadership) don't get it and they never will. Ca racing needs to hit rock bottom, clean house and get new, young and fresh leadership with modern ideas in there to right the ship. The ship can be righted, but not under the current regime, they'll never admit their mistakes.Don't count on it. NJ racing has hit rock bottom and they still don't get it.

[BlueShoe]

Right now, New York represents just as strong a problem for significant players as California.
Good point. While most of the criticism has been directed at California, the quality of racing in New York has also been in decline. The winter meeting on the inner track at Aqueduct is awful, and no longer can be even regarded as a class A major track meeting anymore. Saratoga of the NYRA and Del Mar in California the only bright spots in those two states?

[Southieboy]

Cards blow at AQU. Think there is not even 25 horses in 1st 4 races Thursday.

[David-LV]

Don't count on it. NJ racing has hit rock bottom and they still don't get it.

Robert,

Still picking on New Jersey???

You & Kelso could become the next tag team pair on "can you top this" on who hates New Jersey horsemen and horse racing in general the most.

For a change of pace say something positive about racing and surprise us all.

________
David-LV

[bigmack]

Through yesterday Santa Anita is down 77.2 million and Golden Gate is down 19.3 million.

Like Bill said, CA is losing a lot of players that won't be able to just pick up playing if CA starts making the correct decisions. I know things look bad, and they'll continue to be bad, but the longer this goes on the more customers CA loses for good.
With the real estate market in shambles, job loss at a record high, taxed beyond belief & newly elected Gov. Brown looking to raise taxes, the fact is, nobody cares if horse racing goes in the tank.

Hard to believe those that actually make a living from racing in this state don't storm the offices of TOC & CHRB.

No question there is hand writing on the wall. And it ain't good.

[Zman179]

Good point. While most of the criticism has been directed at California, the quality of racing in New York has also been in decline. The winter meeting on the inner track at Aqueduct is awful, and no longer can be even regarded as a class A major track meeting anymore. Saratoga of the NYRA and Del Mar in California the only bright spots in those two states?

You can thank the slots for that. The Aqueduct Inner Dirt has always been exclusively for cheaper horses and, up until recently, had pretty strong fields for lesser quality horses and was the meet for working class trainers to make their money for the year. Now with Philadelphia Park, Penn National and Delaware drawing the lesser quality horses with inflated purses, the quality of the NYRA product has been diluted.

I'm quite interested to see how next year's Inner Dirt meet will fare considering that their purses will be "slots welfare" infused as well, thus re-diluting the Philly and, to a lesser extent, the Pig Penn programs.

[Robert Goren]

Robert,

Still picking on New Jersey???

You & Kelso could become the next tag team pair on "can you top this" on who hates New Jersey horsemen and horse racing in general the most.

For a change of pace say something positive about racing and surprise us all.

________
David-LV I have said a lot positive things about places that deserve to have positive things said about them. TB, Hasting Park and Oaklawn are places that are trying to do things right. CD has some very good takeout rates even though their announcer drives me nuts. Even CA for all its faults has a low takeout rate on WPS pools. I hate places who are racinos and ignore the their horse betting customers. I don't think taxpayer money should be used to keep a race track open. Anyplace that tries to do help the betters directly will get my praise. But places who throw money at horsemen at the expense of betters and try to sell it as helping betters will get my wrath.

[DJofSD]

Where have all the horses gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the horses gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the horses gone?
Owners have moved them every one
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?

Where have all the new owners gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the new owners gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the new owners gone?
Taxed too much every one
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?

Where have all the taxes gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the taxes gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the taxes gone?
Gone for welfare every one
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?

Where have all the bettors gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the bettors gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the bettors gone?
Gone to graveyards every one
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?

Where have all the graveyards gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the graveyards gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the graveyards gone?
Covered with casinos every one
When will we ever learn?
When will we ever learn?

[andymays]

Outstanding DJ! :ThmbUp:

I guess we've kind of devoloped a new way for Horseplayers to express themeselves here on PA. I like it.

If there were some way to put the words to some of the songs they follow it would be a great way to get their attention.

[Kelso]

Still picking on New Jersey???

You & Kelso could become the next tag team pair on "can you top this" on who hates New Jersey horsemen and horse racing in general the most.Still resorting to the Hate Card because you have nothing of substance to offer in support of Welfare-for-Horsemen? You should be writing "How to Win Millions at the Track" systems. They'd be just as productive as your HORSEMEN FIRST drivel.


For a change of pace say something positive about racing and surprise us all.For a change of pace, admit that all you care about is horsemen taking all they can out of assets that belong to taxpayers. Even a shade of honest discussion from you would be refreshing.

[horses721]

Good point. While most of the criticism has been directed at California, the quality of racing in New York has also been in decline. The winter meeting on the inner track at Aqueduct is awful, and no longer can be even regarded as a class A major track meeting anymore. Saratoga of the NYRA and Del Mar in California the only bright spots in those two states?

Winter racing at Aqueduct stinks because the top barns head south for the winter. When Belmont opens, the quality will return to NY while California doesn't have that hope and will still keep shoving short fields down our throat except for the cheap Cal-bred maiden claimers which are the only type of races that draw more than 8 horses. As far as Del Mar goes, it is no different than any of the other meets that run in CA. Short fields, even after eliminating Monday racing and carding fewer races, and lots of cheap claiming races.

[jelly]

Ron Anderson leaving California.


“I’m going to go east, and he wants to stay here,” Anderson said. “There are no ill feelings. [Gomez] is a great guy. He is an American success story.”


http://www.drf.com/news/gomez-splits-agent-wants-spend-more-time-california

[cj]

Are they racing Friday? I still don't see PPs. They must be having a hell of a time finding horses. Now there is a card you want to bet, one with half the horses running in races the trainer was hustled to run in!

[GregReinhart]

Ron Anderson leaving California.


“I’m going to go east, and he wants to stay here,” Anderson said. “There are no ill feelings. [Gomez] is a great guy. He is an American success story.”


http://www.drf.com/news/gomez-splits-agent-wants-spend-more-time-california

I understand Garrett's family concerns but from a business perspective it is a bizarre decision. There aren't a whole lot of good mounts to go around in CA with short fields and this decision probably takes him off any mounts he would've had for Pletcher and other east coast trainers.

[Stillriledup]

I understand Garrett's family concerns but from a business perspective it is a bizarre decision. There aren't a whole lot of good mounts to go around in CA with short fields and this decision probably takes him off any mounts he would've had for Pletcher and other east coast trainers.

Maybe money isnt important to him.?

What else could it be.

[DJofSD]

Maybe money isnt important to him.?

What else could it be.
Maybe he knows the big one is coming in the near future.

[cj]

There aren't a whole lot of good mounts to go around in CA ...

Maybe not, but he gets most of them right now.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

The sad thing is that the longer this goes on, the longer it will take to recover. At this point California has already lost players that will never come back. :(


They will be back when exchange betting begins in 2012.

Allan

[jelly]

I understand Garrett's family concerns but from a business perspective it is a bizarre decision. There aren't a whole lot of good mounts to go around in CA with short fields and this decision probably takes him off any mounts he would've had for Pletcher and other east coast trainers.



Can't blame the guy for staying with his family.

But on the business front things are only gonna get worse.



SA- handle last year $5,004,929 att.2,850.

Today $3,459,899 att.2,187.

handle down over 30%.


Tampa Bay handle today $3,492,882

[ronsmac]

These next 5 day weeks are really going to show how bad it is in So Cal.

[Southieboy]

Today $3,459,899 att.2,187.

I'd like to know where they got 2,100 people based on this pic.
http://plixi.com/p/86346601

[pondman]

Who has any money to spend in California?

Every contractor I know is either bankrupt or near it. There are 2 million unemployed construction workers in California (unemploymet 12.5%.) These are the people who spend their Sundays at the track.

The mistake of Santa Anita is:

They've taken the fun away.

1 beer = $6
1 hotdog = $5
--------------
Total = $11

Have I given up on it-- No. There still is a pile of money to be made in California.

[macguy]

I'd like to know where they got 2,100 people based on this pic.
http://plixi.com/p/86346601


Wow, that's sad.

[owlet]

I was in Frontrunner's yesterday. There were maybe 100 people in there total.

Looked around the track; saw no more than 1000 people.

[GregReinhart]

Garrett and Victor Espinoza have the same agent now. Weird

[Zman179]

Who has any money to spend in California?

Every contractor I know is either bankrupt or near it. There are 2 million unemployed construction workers in California (unemploymet 12.5%.) These are the people who spend their Sundays at the track.

The mistake of Santa Anita is:

They've taken the fun away.

1 beer = $6
1 hotdog = $5
--------------
Total = $11

Have I given up on it-- No. There still is a pile of money to be made in California.

Don't forget the $6 to park & admission.