Aqueduct 3/18 Race 3

[tzipi]

This is a race that makes your head hurt. What does everyone think of STARR WEST as the heavy favorite here?
Pros:
Fast for this field
High Beyers for this field
Good trainer
Rested

CONS:
Here's a horse that cost $400,000 at Keeneland and Pletcher/Evans put him into a low claimer at Aqueduct right off the bat, to get rid of him. Soon as Jacobson got him, he had to lay him up for 2 months after the race. Obviously Pletcher knew this horse had MAJOR problems and Jacobson inherited them soon as he got the horse. Then it looked like he was entered in a high MSW to get a better price when pushed down to a cheap Mdn Clm, but this horse went bad barely finishing the races. Serious problems kicked in again.
Jacobson looks like he put Starr West into a layoff to finally fix the problem and try to get this nicely bred horse to be something. But it looks like Starr West is just a flawed, broken down horse maybe. The workouts have been very slow and there's a BIG gap from Jan 8th to Feb 18th. Guessing the problem arose again. But again, Pletcher and Evans let this big purchase go VERY cheap right away as they saw something bad.

Million Dollar Question:
Is Jacobson finally giving up the rehabilitation and just entering him cheap(18k not 20k), hoping someone thinks it's a bargain and claims him? He does put his main man Cohen on but wondering if that's just a trick to pretend the horse is fit and will run well. Attracting a buyer?
Now I'm not saying Starr West can't be back in some form and walk over this field with Jacobson stealing a cheap race, but all these bad things and I have to take him at a super short price? If he really is bad and here as a red flag dump off, the exacta and triple could pay very well.

Any thoughts?

[theguarantee]

I like Black Diablo. Obviously wasn't ready for the unveiling. Worked him for the comeback which came up pretty tough, bumped early and wide, and might not have wanted that much ground anyway. Then in the last got no pace at all to close into. 5/1 ML seems generous.

[Pell Mell]

I happened to look at this race and gave the 3 a second look. The problem is that we don't know the true story with the 2 but somebody will. Zito and Rice have 1st timers in here and if the 2 is NG then smart money will show somewhere.
And, if the 2 is a dud, and money shows on someone else, just what do you think you can get in the way of value in a 6 horse race in NY? Unplayable race IMO.

[tzipi]

And, if the 2 is a dud, and money shows on someone else, just what do you think you can get in the way of value in a 6 horse race in NY? Unplayable race IMO.

Well everyone today would have to be on in the in and know the #2 is a dud. How's that going to happen? And with Dominquez now on who knows.

"What kind of value can it possibly show in a 6 horse race? Unplayable race"
Yesterday in the 2nd race (6 horse race) the exacta paid $281.00 and the triple almost $1000.00. In the 3rd (4 horse race) the exacta paid $44.40. Not bad value.

Again, this horse might ROMP but was just looking into this horses past and boy does it look bad. We'll soon find out ;)

[tzipi]

Heavy ML favorite Starr West is at 9-2. Well that doesn't look good. Might just sit out and money is now spread around and tough race to call clearly IMO.

[PhantomOnTour]

No play for me here but I like the :5: if he can stay at 3-1

[PhantomOnTour]

I like Black Diablo. Obviously wasn't ready for the unveiling. Worked him for the comeback which came up pretty tough, bumped early and wide, and might not have wanted that much ground anyway. Then in the last got no pace at all to close into. 5/1 ML seems generous.
Nice one...my #5 ran pretty brave after that start, as did the runner up #6 after a wide trip all the way.

[tzipi]

Starr West ended up the track while taking a bit of money towards the end. Will have to see now if someone claimed him. Nice pick theguarantee on Black Diablo :ThmbUp:

[theguarantee]

Thanks guys. Serling also tweeted Black Diablo as his pick looking for a more aggressive ride prior to the race.