The Rebel

[sam i am]

This race looks pretty strong to me.
I like Sway Away ready to show his pedigree for dist.
right now this is my derby horse


SWAY AWAY
ARCHARCHARCH
THE FACTOR
ALTERNATION
ELITE ALEX
J P'S GUSTO

[redshift1]

This race looks pretty strong to me.
I like Sway Away ready to show his pedigree for dist.
right now this is my derby horse


SWAY AWAY
ARCHARCHARCH
THE FACTOR
ALTERNATION
ELITE ALEX
J P'S GUSTO

I liked Sway Away's last..... Rebel should provide a gauge for the California horses... The Factor may need a couple of oxygen bottles and a shot of nitrous to hold on.

[point given]

Sway Away for me too. Look what Pegasus did off that last 7F stakes which The Factor wired them. SA finished nicely that day and should stretch out.:ThmbUp:

[forced89]

I like Elite Alex. He had a tough trip in the Southwest and there is not much track after the final turn at a mile at Oaklawn.

I'm biased though because of the guts of his sire, Afleet Alex, and I'm not referring to his miraculous save in the Preakness. He prepped for the Rebel at Oaklawn in a six furlong race, sat third, and as the two horses in front of him moved together to shut him off, he basically knocked them both out the way as he drove between them.

Elite Alex has Afleet Alex's trainer. If he has his gut, he wins.

[tribecaagent]

I like Elite Alex. He had a tough trip in the Southwest and there is not much track after the final turn at a mile at Oaklawn.

I'm biased though because of the guts of his sire, Afleet Alex, and I'm not referring to his miraculous save in the Preakness. He prepped for the Rebel at Oaklawn in a six furlong race, sat third, and as the two horses in front of him moved together to shut him off, he basically knocked them both out the way as he drove between them.

Elite Alex has Afleet Alex's trainer. If he has his gut, he wins.

There were several rough trips in the Southwest, none more severe than Caleb's Posse.

[FlyinLate]

Alternation looks to be a nice up-and-coming horse. He defeated Elite Alex in an allowance race. On Southwest day, he returned to romp home 5 clear in another allowance and Elite Alex ran second in the Southwest (double flatterings of his first allowance win).

The Cali shippers are likely to take tons of cash. If the Factor can stretch out, he'll be outrageously tough (my guess is he can't). I think every horse player saw Sway Away closing at SA, and IMO will go off favored over The Factor.

With all the big names drawn in here, Alternation should offer tremendous value and will likely be my play come Saturday.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Alternation looks to be a nice up-and-coming horse. He defeated Elite Alex in an allowance race. On Southwest day, he returned to romp home 5 clear in another allowance and Elite Alex ran second in the Southwest (double flatterings of his first allowance win).

The Cali shippers are likely to take tons of cash. If the Factor can stretch out, he'll be outrageously tough (my guess is he can't). I think every horse player saw Sway Away closing at SA, and IMO will go off favored over The Factor.

With all the big names drawn in here, Alternation should offer tremendous value and will likely be my play come Saturday.
Elite Alex lost at least 5 lengths out of the gate in that allowance race and still almost beat your horse. Alternation may be improving, but I just can't see him winning this one.

[Pell Mell]

I find the races that have been run at SA to be kind of odd as far as the pace of the races such as the San Vicente and the San Felipe.
In the SV Premier Pegasus drew even with THE FACTOR in the stretch and couldn't sustain his bid. There were only 6 horses in the race and after that torrid pace somebody had to be finishing fast and it happened to be Sway Away.
Then in the SF there was another hot pace which a proven speed horse like CTTT couldn't even run with and PP was in the right spot to take advantage of the collapse up front. When I take this into consideration it occurs to me that THE FACTOR is much better than the other CA horses.
But, the question is, what will happen when the CA horses run on another track that doesn't have this weird pace scenerio? Also, when I look at Flashpoint and Travelin Man, I'm inclined to think they are faster than THE FACTOR. In light of this, and feeling I've got to make a decision one way or the other, I'm going to be forced to discount the CA horses. I think that SWAY AWAY only came close because of the hot pace and no one else left in the race to come on.
There is however the possibility that I'm totally wrong in my thinking and also, despite what others may say, I really like THE FACTOR's breeding and think he can get the distance, I will have to use him on top of some of my plays. He may just have his own way in this one.
Either way, I feel ARCHARCHARCH is the horse to beat.:ThmbUp:

http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/

[PhantomOnTour]

Can't find any pp's yet(the free kind)...shouldn't they be out by now?

[Pell Mell]

Not yet, they draw today.

[precocity]

J P'S GUSTO will upset!!!!!!!!!!!! :cool:

[redshift1]

Rebel S.
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $300,000

1 Archarcharch J. Court

2 Alternation L. Quinonez

3 Dreaminofthewin M. Berry

4 Picko's Pride I. Ocampo

5 J P's Gusto R. Dominguez

6 The Factor M. Garcia

7 Caleb's Posse E. Razo, Jr.

8 Saratoga Red T. Thompson

9 Sway Away G. Gomez

10 Elite Alex C. Borel

11 Glint G. Saez

12 Bluegrass Jam M. Baze

13 J W Blue J. Rocco, Jr.

[Cholly]

What’s wrong with this picture? Blind Luck and Havre de Grace, who happen to be crowd-pleasing, game as it gets, Grade I winning fillies, who have already accomplished great things, and have an established rivalry, will be racing at OP Saturday for $150,000. On the same card, a bunch of no-name, probably never amount to anything 3yo colts will race for $300,000. Shouldn’t it be the other way around?

Meanwhile, the Fairgrounds will stage a five horse race for a million dollars, with the favorite and likely winner another unaccomplished 3yo dreg who couldn’t cut it in Florida.

If racing wants to have stars, it needs to reward them…and quit throwing money at wannabes.

[Pell Mell]

HUH? :confused:

[PhantomOnTour]

Glint and Dreaminofthewin are supposedly not running and Elite Alex may go in the La Dby instead.

[surfdog89]

Bob Baffert used a new type bit on the Factor his last race. He was fighting this bit down the back-stretch. He goes back to the old bit in the Rebel.....interesting note to make. I have like Sway Away since I saw his first race last summer at the fair in Pleasanton......... A interesting horse that is under the radar in the Rebel might just be Picko's Pride.......should love the pace!

[PhantomOnTour]

Glint and Dreaminofthewin are supposedly not running and Elite Alex may go in the La Dby instead.
They are out.

[Pell Mell]

Bob Baffert used a new type bit on the Factor his last race. He was fighting this bit down the back-stretch. He goes back to the old bit in the Rebel.....interesting note to make. I have like Sway Away since I saw his first race last summer at the fair in Pleasanton......... A interesting horse that is under the radar in the Rebel might just be Picko's Pride.......should love the pace!

It seems that the big question in this race is if THE FACTOR will rate. Not much in the way of speed in here so he should have an uncontested lead.

http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/

[surfdog89]

That's the big question of The Factor......can he slow down the pace. I think he is bred for the distance. He is the most talented horse in the field. But making a bet with short odds might not be my bet.

[Chris G]

I'd play The Factor over JP's Gusto & Sway Away in the exacta.The Factor is the speed & JP Gusto has apparently been training very well in company.

[tribecaagent]

I'm taking a big swing with Caleb's Posse.

As someone whom I respect likes to say, "this horse is dirtied up".

At 20-1, I'm taking my chances.

[SmartyLane]

n......... A interesting horse that is under the radar in the Rebel might just be Picko's Pride.......should love the pace!


Shhhhh.......

[Marlin]

The recent work of Elite Alex tells me he's ready. I love him if he goes. I also think the big fillies in the previous race might be vulnerable. I'll use them but most likely be heavy on Tidal Pool. A Grade 3? Very nice!

[PhantomOnTour]

Glint and Dreaminofthewin are supposedly not running and Elite Alex may go in the La Dby instead.
Now Elite Alex is out as well and will go in the La Derby

[joanied]

Kinda bummed about Elite Alex, but I think a smart move by Ritchie...and as of today, the LA Derby has just 5 entries...
it also made me change my picks order...so...
The Factor
Sway Away
Archarcharch
Alternation

Can't wait to see if Blind Luck and Harve de Grace can finish 1,2 again...I have Blind Luck to win.

[crazyjeff8]

My short prediction: Sway Away wins a thriller over The Factor in a budding new rivalry, Alternation finishes a strong 3rd and JP's Gusto up for 4th.

[Dahoss2002]

Alternation looks to be a nice up-and-coming horse. He defeated Elite Alex in an allowance race. On Southwest day, he returned to romp home 5 clear in another allowance and Elite Alex ran second in the Southwest (double flatterings of his first allowance win).

The Cali shippers are likely to take tons of cash. If the Factor can stretch out, he'll be outrageously tough (my guess is he can't). I think every horse player saw Sway Away closing at SA, and IMO will go off favored over The Factor.

With all the big names drawn in here, Alternation should offer tremendous value and will likely be my play come Saturday.
I put a little WP money on him and keyed him with 1-6-9 in the gimmicks. Like you, I like his chances with his odds.

[dogkatcher]

If you notice the last 2 6f works for The Factor,
Baffert got him to slow down from 110.3 to 112.1.
Perhaps he's figured out how to tame that speed.
We'll see this afternoon, Good Luck to All.

[Market Mover]

If you notice the last 2 6f works for The Factor,
Baffert got him to slow down from 110.3 to 112.1.
Perhaps he's figured out how to tame that speed.
We'll see this afternoon, Good Luck to All.

does anyone know if the 12 and 13 are coupled entries or separate wagering interests in the Rebel?

[PhantomOnTour]

They are coupled

[Some_One]

That was impressive....although E types usually get killed in suicidal speed duals of late in the derby.

[Jasonm921]

I admit..I threw The Factor out of the exotics. Made me look like a fool. He had a nice second kick. Very Uncle Mo'ish win.

[Some_One]

Only a fifth slower than Harve De Grace (I believe the 6f pace was about a second faster in the Rebel)

[Jasonm921]

And Havre De Grace is no slouch.

[PhantomOnTour]

Pace in the Rebel was about 3/5 faster than the Azeri.
I think this race will get the highest Beyer yet of all the two turn Derby preps this year.

[Jasonm921]

I still think this is a horse that should be pointing to the Met Mile.

[Jasonm921]

Getting the feeling that Baffert doesn't want to go the Derby route with this horse...but the horse keeps providing the ownership with Derby dreams.

[Jasonm921]

I think you're right. Havre De Grace usually runs a pretty good number so he would have to be there as well.

[Some_One]

Quick beyer calcs I got about 107 for HDC, 2 points lower for The Factor. We'll see how close I am, lol.

[Jasonm921]

That sounds legitimate. Then again what the heck do I know :)

[Exotic1]

There were several rough trips in the Southwest, none more severe than Caleb's Posse.

Excellent observation and judgment.

[FiveWide]

Per Equibase: Apparently they removed the coupled entry but the feeds weren't showing separate odds...odd


TODAY'S SCRATCHES & PROGRAM CHANGES
Oaklawn Park
Last Updated: March 19, 7:11 PM ET

Current Track Conditions:

Dirt: Fast
Scheduled First Post: 1:05 PM CT



Race: 2 Changes Time Posted
#1 The Elevator Scratched - Trainer 1:16 PM ET
#1A Stamp No longer a Coupled Entry 1:16 PM ET

Race: 4 Changes Time Posted
#10 Firewhirl Scratched - Trainer 1:16 PM ET

Race: 10 Changes Time Posted
#2 Alternation Scratched - Veterinarian 7:11 PM ET
#3 Dreaminofthewin Scratched - Trainer 1:16 PM ET
#10 Elite Alex Scratched - Trainer 1:16 PM ET
#11 Glint Scratched - Trainer 1:16 PM ET
#12F Bluegrass Jam No longer a Coupled Entry 1:16 PM ET
Program Number - 12 changed to 12F 1:16 PM ET
#13F J W Blue No longer a Coupled Entry 1:16 PM ET
Program Number - 13 changed to 13F 1:16 PM ET

[tribecaagent]

Excellent observation and judgment.

Thank you. Too bad an underlayed 7/5 shot beat him.

How many times do we get beaten by a favorite? Too many.
I cashed the exacta and tri, and both were underlayed disapointments.

Next.

[Some_One]

Per Andy Serling on twitter:
The Factor gets a 103 Beyer fig for his Rebel win. Havre de Grace gets a 105.

[PhantomOnTour]

One of the commenters on Haskin's Derby Dozen column stated that Sway Away banged his mouth on the starting gate in the Rebel and knocked a tooth out...all due to the antics of Alternation, who flipped in the gate and had some other runners getting antsy. He says Archarcharch got kicked also.

Anyone else heard of the alleged missing tooth of Sway Away?

[Shelby]

Per Equibase: Apparently they removed the coupled entry but the feeds weren't showing separate odds...odd


TODAY'S SCRATCHES & PROGRAM CHANGES
Oaklawn Park
Last Updated: March 19, 7:11 PM ET

Current Track Conditions:

Dirt: Fast
Scheduled First Post: 1:05 PM CT



Race: 2 Changes Time Posted
#1 The Elevator Scratched - Trainer 1:16 PM ET
#1A Stamp No longer a Coupled Entry 1:16 PM ET

Race: 4 Changes Time Posted
#10 Firewhirl Scratched - Trainer 1:16 PM ET

Race: 10 Changes Time Posted
#2 Alternation Scratched - Veterinarian 7:11 PM ET
#3 Dreaminofthewin Scratched - Trainer 1:16 PM ET
#10 Elite Alex Scratched - Trainer 1:16 PM ET
#11 Glint Scratched - Trainer 1:16 PM ET
#12F Bluegrass Jam No longer a Coupled Entry 1:16 PM ET
Program Number - 12 changed to 12F 1:16 PM ET
#13F J W Blue No longer a Coupled Entry 1:16 PM ET
Program Number - 13 changed to 13F 1:16 PM ET

They were still coupled right before the race because Terry Wallace gave an explanation as to why there was the letter "f" after the 12 and 13.

[Pell Mell]

The Factor just blew them away but I was disappointed in the ride by Court on Arch. In the Smarty Jones he went out and chased the favorite and faded to 4th, actually hanging in pretty good considering the track that day.
He comes back in the Southwest and lays off the pace and closes like a champ and wins. My question is; why was he trying to chase The Factor. At the 3/8s he makes a premature move and gets his head in front of the #8 and then he drops back and then makes another move turning for home and finally loses 2nd by a neck. Bad ride IMO. He needs to lay off the pace, not press it and he needs a new jock.


http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/

[nijinski]

One of the commenters on Haskin's Derby Dozen column stated that Sway Away banged his mouth on the starting gate in the Rebel and knocked a tooth out...all due to the antics of Alternation, who flipped in the gate and had some other runners getting antsy. He says Archarcharch got kicked also.

Anyone else heard of the alleged missing tooth of Sway Away?

Just happened to go through this thread . I've heard the same about
him hitting the gate and knocking his tooth out. Poor baby , I see a
legit excuse here.