canuck
10-18-2003, 08:39 PM
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 6 - Post Time 12:34
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf – Purse $1,000,000
1¼ miles on Turf (10 furlongs) – Fillies and Mares 3 years old and up
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No stakes win for Euros 2 knocks but no G1 no knocks- for US 1 knock no g1 2 knocks no stakes win
#3 Has never finished within 4 lengths of winner at this distance
#4 Not laid off for more than 45 days
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bien Nicole #2
Bright Sky
Dessert #4
Dimitrova
Heat Haze
Islington #4
L'Ancresse
Megahertz #4
Mezzo Soprano
Musical Chimes
Riskaverse
Tates Creek
Voodoo Dancer #4
Yesterday
NOT TOO MANY KNOCKS--MAYBE THE CRUSH INDEX CAN PAINT A BETTER PICTURE
For this race the par is 103
CI is 2003 wins/beyers +100(2003)/Beyers+103(2003)
Bien Nicole *6*
Bright Sky *9*
Dessert *3*
Dimitrova *6*
Heat Haze *8*
Islington *9*
L'Ancresse *2*
Megahertz *7*
Mezzo Soprano *5*
Musical Chimes *5*
Riskaverse *6*
Tates Creek *11*
Voodoo Dancer *6*
Yesterday *8*
Seems we have a competitive race here.
Time to scan for a Road warrior. Bien Nicole is the only shipper that qualifies. Tates Creek is the home horse who has won at every SoCal track. These two look interesting.
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Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 7 - Post Time 1:20
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile – Purse $1,500,000
1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs) - For 2-year-old colts and geldings
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No stakes wins
#3 No less than 2 and no more than 7 races
#4 Layoff of 30+ days
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Action This Day #2
Cactus Ridge
Capitano #2
Chapel Royal
Consecrate #1 #2
Cuvee #4
Grand Reward #2
Minister Eric #2 #4
Old Deuteronomy #2
Race For Glory
Relaxed Gesture #2
Siphonizer #1
Thats an Outrage #2
Tiger Hunt
Mambo Train #1 #2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Was that the chalk we just threw out there??
The Crushing Index is overall wins plus 96+ Beyers plus 90+ route Beyers plus 3 points for Sprint to Route Adjustment
Action This Day *1*
Cactus Ridge *10*
Capitano *1*
Chapel Royal *9*
Consecrate *1*
Cuvee *7*
Grand Reward *4*
Minister Eric *1*
Old Deuteronomy *1*
Race For Glory *3*
Relaxed Gesture *6*
Siphonizer *2*
Thats an Outrage *1*
Tiger Hunt *3*
Mambo Train *1*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Historically anything less than 3 is a toss-ofer last 10 runnings
Cuvee may be a tad vulnerable--especially with 2 Road Warriors with better CIs-Cactus Ridge and Chapel Royale.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 8 - Post Time 1:55
John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf – Purse $2,000,000
1 1/2 miles (12 furlongs) - For 3 year olds and up
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are five factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner) Also consider any horse coming from the Arc de Triomphe
#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and Grade 1 win for domestics in 2003
#3 No wins at the distance
#4 Six year olds and up have gone 0/22
#5 Layoff of 35+ days
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Balto Star #3
Bright Sky #2 #3
Deeliteful Irving #2
Falbrav
High Chaparral
Johar #2 #3
Storming Home
Sulamani
The Tin Man #5
Three Europeans and the hometown horse remain unscathed from the dreaded knocks!
The Crush Index for this race is Wins for year + #105 Beyers + #Beyers over par(110)
Balto Star *3*
Bright Sky *4*
Deeliteful Irving *2*
Falbrav *14*
High Chaparral *8*
Johar *2*
Storming Home *6*
Sulamani *10*
The Tin Man *4*
In the last 10 runnings of the Turf the CI has been 12/13/10/11/10/11/13/3/8/13
This points heavily to the 3 European horses.
Is there a Road Warrior in the house?
The lone qualifier is Falbrav.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are five factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and Grade 1 win for domestics in 2003
#3 Six year olds and up have gone 0/15
#4 Layoff of 35+ days must be accompanied by a bullet AND stamina work(longer than 5f)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Congaree
Dynever
Evening Attire #2
Falbrav
Funny Cide
Hold that Tiger #2 #4
Medaglia d'Oro #4
Perfect Drift
Pleasantly Perfect #2
Ten Most Wanted
Toccet #1 #2
Volponi #1 #2
Well-that trims the herd somewhat. Lets look at the "Crushing" index. It seems that a minimum of *8* is required to be competitive judging by past runnings.
Congaree *15*
Dynever *6*
Evening Attire *7*
Falbrav *14*
Funny Cide *7*
Hold that Tiger *2*
Medaglia d'Oro *9*
Perfect Drift *12*
Pleasantly Perfect *4*
Ten Most Wanted *8*
Toccet *2*
Volponi *6*
The CI does little to separate any further.
The Road Warriors are Congaree/ Falbrav/ Perfect Drift and Ten Most Wanted.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE ROAD WARRIOR
In the last four runnings in California shippers and Euros have not fared well. The ones that have displayed this profile--
1-Victories at four different tracks during the year. For 2 year olds 3 wins.
2-French based horses must also show a win in England or Ireland. English and Irish based horses must show a win in France or on the continent,
3-Cal-based horses need a win at each S. Cal track.
Race 6 - Post Time 12:34
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf – Purse $1,000,000
1¼ miles on Turf (10 furlongs) – Fillies and Mares 3 years old and up
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No stakes win for Euros 2 knocks but no G1 no knocks- for US 1 knock no g1 2 knocks no stakes win
#3 Has never finished within 4 lengths of winner at this distance
#4 Not laid off for more than 45 days
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bien Nicole #2
Bright Sky
Dessert #4
Dimitrova
Heat Haze
Islington #4
L'Ancresse
Megahertz #4
Mezzo Soprano
Musical Chimes
Riskaverse
Tates Creek
Voodoo Dancer #4
Yesterday
NOT TOO MANY KNOCKS--MAYBE THE CRUSH INDEX CAN PAINT A BETTER PICTURE
For this race the par is 103
CI is 2003 wins/beyers +100(2003)/Beyers+103(2003)
Bien Nicole *6*
Bright Sky *9*
Dessert *3*
Dimitrova *6*
Heat Haze *8*
Islington *9*
L'Ancresse *2*
Megahertz *7*
Mezzo Soprano *5*
Musical Chimes *5*
Riskaverse *6*
Tates Creek *11*
Voodoo Dancer *6*
Yesterday *8*
Seems we have a competitive race here.
Time to scan for a Road warrior. Bien Nicole is the only shipper that qualifies. Tates Creek is the home horse who has won at every SoCal track. These two look interesting.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 7 - Post Time 1:20
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile – Purse $1,500,000
1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs) - For 2-year-old colts and geldings
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No stakes wins
#3 No less than 2 and no more than 7 races
#4 Layoff of 30+ days
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Action This Day #2
Cactus Ridge
Capitano #2
Chapel Royal
Consecrate #1 #2
Cuvee #4
Grand Reward #2
Minister Eric #2 #4
Old Deuteronomy #2
Race For Glory
Relaxed Gesture #2
Siphonizer #1
Thats an Outrage #2
Tiger Hunt
Mambo Train #1 #2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Was that the chalk we just threw out there??
The Crushing Index is overall wins plus 96+ Beyers plus 90+ route Beyers plus 3 points for Sprint to Route Adjustment
Action This Day *1*
Cactus Ridge *10*
Capitano *1*
Chapel Royal *9*
Consecrate *1*
Cuvee *7*
Grand Reward *4*
Minister Eric *1*
Old Deuteronomy *1*
Race For Glory *3*
Relaxed Gesture *6*
Siphonizer *2*
Thats an Outrage *1*
Tiger Hunt *3*
Mambo Train *1*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Historically anything less than 3 is a toss-ofer last 10 runnings
Cuvee may be a tad vulnerable--especially with 2 Road Warriors with better CIs-Cactus Ridge and Chapel Royale.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 8 - Post Time 1:55
John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf – Purse $2,000,000
1 1/2 miles (12 furlongs) - For 3 year olds and up
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are five factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner) Also consider any horse coming from the Arc de Triomphe
#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and Grade 1 win for domestics in 2003
#3 No wins at the distance
#4 Six year olds and up have gone 0/22
#5 Layoff of 35+ days
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Balto Star #3
Bright Sky #2 #3
Deeliteful Irving #2
Falbrav
High Chaparral
Johar #2 #3
Storming Home
Sulamani
The Tin Man #5
Three Europeans and the hometown horse remain unscathed from the dreaded knocks!
The Crush Index for this race is Wins for year + #105 Beyers + #Beyers over par(110)
Balto Star *3*
Bright Sky *4*
Deeliteful Irving *2*
Falbrav *14*
High Chaparral *8*
Johar *2*
Storming Home *6*
Sulamani *10*
The Tin Man *4*
In the last 10 runnings of the Turf the CI has been 12/13/10/11/10/11/13/3/8/13
This points heavily to the 3 European horses.
Is there a Road Warrior in the house?
The lone qualifier is Falbrav.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are five factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and Grade 1 win for domestics in 2003
#3 Six year olds and up have gone 0/15
#4 Layoff of 35+ days must be accompanied by a bullet AND stamina work(longer than 5f)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Congaree
Dynever
Evening Attire #2
Falbrav
Funny Cide
Hold that Tiger #2 #4
Medaglia d'Oro #4
Perfect Drift
Pleasantly Perfect #2
Ten Most Wanted
Toccet #1 #2
Volponi #1 #2
Well-that trims the herd somewhat. Lets look at the "Crushing" index. It seems that a minimum of *8* is required to be competitive judging by past runnings.
Congaree *15*
Dynever *6*
Evening Attire *7*
Falbrav *14*
Funny Cide *7*
Hold that Tiger *2*
Medaglia d'Oro *9*
Perfect Drift *12*
Pleasantly Perfect *4*
Ten Most Wanted *8*
Toccet *2*
Volponi *6*
The CI does little to separate any further.
The Road Warriors are Congaree/ Falbrav/ Perfect Drift and Ten Most Wanted.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE ROAD WARRIOR
In the last four runnings in California shippers and Euros have not fared well. The ones that have displayed this profile--
1-Victories at four different tracks during the year. For 2 year olds 3 wins.
2-French based horses must also show a win in England or Ireland. English and Irish based horses must show a win in France or on the continent,
3-Cal-based horses need a win at each S. Cal track.