View Full Version : St Trinians defeated by a 45-1 shot (along with Switch)
PaceAdvantage
03-15-2011, 04:22 AM
....and nary a word posted on this board that I remember seeing... :lol:
EbdxQSFu_Tg
Dahoss2002
03-15-2011, 04:30 AM
....and nary a word posted on this board that I remember seeing... :lol:
EbdxQSFu_Tg
We boycotted Santa Anita remember? That woulda been a good one despite the "takeout" lol!!
Stillriledup
03-15-2011, 04:34 AM
We boycotted Santa Anita remember? That woulda been a good one despite the "takeout" lol!!
But these are horses that will eventually venture out to tracks you are NOT boycotting....that means, you still have to follow these races, you never know when those horses will come to a bettor-friendly track!
thaskalos
03-15-2011, 04:35 AM
....and nary a word posted on this board that I remember seeing... :lol:
EbdxQSFu_TgZenyatta is retired...remember? :)
Dahoss2002
03-15-2011, 04:49 AM
But these are horses that will eventually venture out to tracks you are NOT boycotting....that means, you still have to follow these races, you never know when those horses will come to a bettor-friendly track!
I was just making a joke about the boycot since the OP said no one had mentioned the race. I would like to follow all the races but I only have so much time. If one of these horses ends up in a race I'm handicapping, I will see that it is a G1 race in the pps
PhantomOnTour
03-15-2011, 10:54 AM
Zenyatta is retired...remember? :)
Looks like some folks on the other side of the Great Zen Debate can't seem to let it go...hmmm.
This thread, and the motivation for starting it, stinks.
FenceBored
03-15-2011, 11:16 AM
Looks like some folks on the other side of the Great Zen Debate can't seem to let it go...hmmm.
This thread, and the motivation for starting it, stinks.
Excuse me? After 'listening' to people brag from June 14 until the Eclipse Awards were handed out that St. Trinians would have dominated the F/M routers if Zenyatta wasn't around, we're not supposed to notice that she's 0 for 2 since her long layoff? :confused:
Oh, we're just not supposed to say anything. I see. :rolleyes:
Robert Fischer
03-15-2011, 11:27 AM
it's amazing that St Trinians hasn't broken down and has actually been able to run at decent class. Mitchell has been able to get her to run pain free and profitable. Watching her in the head-on is the visual equivalent to nails on the chalkboard. It's fair to question whether she should be racing, regardless of the "ends" used as a justification for the means. Mitchell is really "good" with these type of situations (getting a horse to run to their talent in spite of apparent pain)
Switch on the other hand is a horse with good conformation and easier on the eyes. Switch was much the best against the grain in the youtube race posted (s.margarita 2011).
PhantomOnTour
03-15-2011, 11:31 AM
Excuse me? After 'listening' to people brag from June 14 until the Eclipse Awards were handed out that St. Trinians would have dominated the F/M routers if Zenyatta wasn't around, we're not supposed to notice that she's 0 for 2 since her long layoff? :confused:
Oh, we're just not supposed to say anything. I see. :rolleyes:
You're excused...
You feel justified in pointing this out about St. T...why?
It's one of two things:
1) you don't like the way some folks carried on and now it's time to give them their just desserts...yeah man! stick it to 'em!
2) well, I can't think of another reason
JustRalph
03-15-2011, 11:35 AM
I laughed when I saw the thread............
which I am sure was the point........... :lol: :lol:
Robert Fischer
03-15-2011, 11:47 AM
Quote Removed
i don't know about any of that. Which is why i use "apparent". Some horses may have a really "painful" looking stride but be pain free.
I forget the story behind ST.
IIRC she was talented from another country (possibly Australia?) and for whatever reason her career was nearly over, but she was able to continue under Mitchell.
Maybe it had something to do with her awful looking conformation and possible physical issues?
FenceBored
03-15-2011, 11:50 AM
You're excused...
You feel justified in pointing this out about St. T...why?
It's one of two things:
1) you don't like the way some folks carried on and now it's time to give them their just desserts...yeah man! stick it to 'em!
2) well, I can't think of another reason
Here, let me help you out:
2) Veritas.
3) Perspective.
DJofSD
03-15-2011, 11:53 AM
Gee, who'd of thunk a horse from South America could run in the US and win.
Shocking.
There has been some talk that the SoCal horses are better than figures, specifically Beyer, would have people believe. This kind of result certainly doesn't help that notion.
Robert Fischer
03-15-2011, 12:09 PM
oh yea it was Wolverhampton.
in the UK.
the lower class polytrack course.
she likely had physical issues and was brought there with the hope/belief that polytrack would help her to continue running
I thought I was watching Rachel's 4 yo season again!
FenceBored
03-15-2011, 12:54 PM
I thought I was watching Rachel's 4 yo season again!
Ouch! Now that one hurt.
:D
That damn acerbic wit...it's a curse!
DJofSD
03-15-2011, 02:04 PM
Isn't that a stock line in old westerns: curse you, acerbic wit?
classhandicapper
03-15-2011, 04:59 PM
There were always 2 major issues those that admired her made clear last year when it came to St Trinians.
1. Soundness
2. Ability to handle dirt as well as synthetic.
She's not running well off the layoff (which occurred due to soundness), but I think it's unlikely it has anything to do with her quality last year because her form looks worse this year and she's not even running as fast as she did in her better synthetic races when she was often hampered by extremely slow paced races where she flew home.
If those synthetic figures were an accurate translation to dirt quality and she was handling the surface equally well and sound she would at least be running the same peak figures on dirt now, but she's not.
I don't think there's much to be learned from her about the synthetic to dirt translation (which was obviously wrong) or whether the CA circuit is still too slow at the top due to those translation issues.
A better test case was Thiskyhasnolimit at Oaklawn, but I think Beyer may have tweaked that figure down a little (not sure).
....and nary a word posted on this board that I remember seeing... :lol:
EbdxQSFu_Tg
Three words. Seven letters.
LET IT GO.
She's retired.
I don't think there's much to be learned from her about the synthetic to dirt translation (which was obviously wrong) or whether the CA circuit is still too slow at the top due to those translation issues.
A better test case was Thiskyhasnolimit at Oaklawn, but I think Beyer may have tweaked that figure down a little (not sure).
I wasn't talking about the figures of St. Trinian's. I'm talking about an east coast horse moving west with poor figures and beating a G1 west coast field.
As for ST, while it is possible her form is off, it is at least as likely she just can't handle dirt. Maybe her form is fine and it is the surface. Definitely? No. Possible? Certainly.
PaceAdvantage
03-15-2011, 05:23 PM
Three words. Seven letters.
LET IT GO.
She's retired.Who's retired? St Trinians? Switch?
PaceAdvantage
03-15-2011, 05:25 PM
Looks like some folks on the other side of the Great Zen Debate can't seem to let it go...hmmm.
This thread, and the motivation for starting it, stinks.This race happened this past weekend. Are you saying talk about it should be censored?
There is a boycott in effect in terms of BETTING SoCal racing. There is no boycott in effect in terms of WATCHING or DISCUSSING, as far as I know...
classhandicapper
03-15-2011, 05:34 PM
Edited: CJ, this is what I think of the winner of that race.
I should add one thing.
I think Switch ran another good race in defeat. She has always been a tad suspect stretching out. So I am not shocked she got caught after chasing a pretty darn fast horse early, but I was hoping she was going to continue to improve. We'll see.
I'm not sure what to make of the winner.
Her win there is either telling us that the the CA Beyers ARE in line with the rest of the country and these mares aren't a little better than they look or that she's improving for Drysdale (who is now 2-2 with her). Either way, he just got her to win a quality race and run a peak figure of 96 as a 6yo. That's a pretty good accomplishment. So she's definitely better for him (at least for this one race). It's a matter of how much.
In any event, I am only talking about a few points at the top of the scale (like 2-4 at most) if it's still an issue.
classhandicapper
03-15-2011, 05:36 PM
I wasn't talking about the figures of St. Trinian's. I'm talking about an east coast horse moving west with poor figures and beating a G1 west coast field.
As for ST, while it is possible her form is off, it is at least as likely she just can't handle dirt. Maybe her form is fine and it is the surface. Definitely? No. Possible? Certainly.
Definitely agree it could be that she can't handle dirt as well and mentioned that as a possibility. If she runs on synthetic later this year maybe we'll find out.
joanied
03-15-2011, 05:46 PM
I watched all the big races from CA. last weekend...I was especially interested in this one because of Switch and St. T...I was totally bummed that Switch got nipped at the wire, and very bummed that St. T didn't run better...it's already be tossed about, that she seems off form, or maybe dis likes the dirt...whatever it is, i hope she regains her form, wins a stake race and then they retire her...can't recall who mentioned watching her run in the head on...but, jeeze, I still can't get used to the way she throws her legs...she's a special little mare and I hope if she gets beat again, they just retire her.
I was stunned when Always A Princess went down...Martin did a great job of getting her stopped, and it's good news that she'll be OK and can go on to a career as a broodmare...could have been much worse.
classhandicapper
03-15-2011, 05:52 PM
Sorry, just thought of one more thing.
We may learn more about what's going on in CA when Blind Luck runs again because I read she is leaving CA. If she continues to run that slow outside of CA we'll know for sure that she just isn't anywhere near the same horse and her recent figures are correct. But if she immediately runs a little faster, IMO it will still be an open issue pending more evidence.
thaskalos
03-15-2011, 05:52 PM
This race happened this past weekend. Are you saying talk about it should be censored?
There is a boycott in effect in terms of BETTING SoCal racing. There is no boycott in effect in terms of WATCHING or DISCUSSING, as far as I know...We all know what you were referring too...
Your emoticon was a dead giveaway.
joanied
03-15-2011, 05:58 PM
Sorry, just thought of one more thing.
We may learn more about what's going on in CA when Blind Luck runs again because I read she is leaving CA. If she continues to run that slow outside of CA we'll know for sure that she just isn't anywhere near the same horse and her recent figures are correct. But if she immediately runs a little faster, IMO it will still be an open issue pending more evidence.
Blind Luck will be in the Azeri on Sat. I need to see the field first, but as of right now...I'll be rootin' her home:jump:
PaceAdvantage
03-15-2011, 05:59 PM
We all know what you were referring too...
Your emoticon was a dead giveaway.Look, we all know why the names St Trinians and Switch are on the map. If you want to ignore all of this, be my guest.
We never have in the past when it came to other horses. I guess this time around is different.... :rolleyes:
thaskalos
03-15-2011, 06:05 PM
Look, we all know why the names St Trinians and Switch are on the map. If you want to ignore all of this, be my guest.
We never have in the past when it came to other horses. I guess this time around is different.... :rolleyes:PA, you surprise me...
Making fun of an expectant mother?
freehouse2002
03-15-2011, 07:21 PM
If I remeber correctly, St. Trinians was brought over due to synthetics. I don't recall which race, but I believe it was the Apple Blossom, Mitchell specifically said that he wouldn't take her because of the dirt. He has no choice but to run her right now. Expect St. T to be back at her best at HP.
freehouse2002
Stillriledup
03-16-2011, 12:40 AM
....and nary a word posted on this board that I remember seeing... :lol:
EbdxQSFu_Tg
Since you posted '45-1 shot' in stead of the actual name of the horse, i'm assuming that you don't actually know the name of the horse.
Am i warm?
PaceAdvantage
03-16-2011, 12:44 AM
PA, you surprise me...
Making fun of an expectant mother?It's not really about Zenyatta. It's about the fact that in my opinion, St Trinians has been severely overrated, starting with her being the favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap last year...
Nikki1997
03-16-2011, 01:02 AM
It's not really about Zenyatta. It's about the fact that in my opinion, St Trinians has been severely overrated, starting with her being the favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap last year...
If I had posted a video about competition that Rachel faced in 2010 and made some ambiguous comments, you'd be the FIRST to say Rachel is retired and you'd be right. I respect the fact she is retired.
It would really, REALLY be nice if you'd extend the same respect and consideration to another retired mare that deserves the consideration and defense you so willingly put out for RA. This chapter is closed. Just thought I'd let you know.
PaceAdvantage
03-16-2011, 01:24 AM
There were plenty of comments about RA's competition both during and after she retired, and I never stated that a person should not be able to post such comments.
But thanks to you and everyone else in this thread who does not wish to extend the same courtesy to me, for whatever reason.
Must be the Zenyatta "diety effect" that I had forgotten about.
Once again, this thread is about St Trinians more than anything else...that's why her name is in the title. Ya'll can continue to conjure up whatever other fantasies you have running around in your heads...fine by me...
Nikki1997
03-16-2011, 01:33 AM
There were plenty of comments about RA's competition both during and after she retired, and I never stated that a person should not be able to post such comments.
But thanks to you and everyone else in this thread who does not wish to extend the same courtesy to me, for whatever reason.
Must be the Zenyatta "diety effect" that I had forgotten about.
Once again, this thread is about St Trinians more than anything else...that's why her name is in the title. Ya'll can continue to conjure up whatever other fantasies you have running around in your heads...fine by me...
Listen, both Zenyatta and Rachel conjured up CONSIDERABLE discussions about competition. One was not let off the hook in favor of the other.
If you want to take the attitude you have expressed in the above response, be my guest. Other posters in this thread picked up on the original intent of your starting this discussion. You want to deny it? Go for it. There's a few here that picked up on what you wanted to say without saying it. And, they did. It is obvious and now, you're trying to back out of it because your intent has been identified. Who cares? It is no secret how you feel and that's your right. But, don't tell me I am wrong when I have a different opinion.
classhandicapper
03-16-2011, 01:44 AM
It's not really about Zenyatta. It's about the fact that in my opinion, St Trinians has been severely overrated, starting with her being the favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap last year...
I can't believe you are trying to use her races from this year to make the case that she wasn't very good last year. She's had chronic physical issues, was laid off because of them, and is running on dirt now.
Many people (myself among them), thought she was a very good mare last year, but even last year we were all saying that she might not retain her form for long due to those soundness issues and conceded the strong possibility her form would not translate to dirt anyway.
If you want to say she was over bet in the SA Handicap last year, I would agree with that. That was a tough spot for all but a great mare. But IMO she was excellent in her races leading up to it. People that understand synthetic racing well (and the associated pace issues) understood that. That's why she was bet in such a tough spot and why many thought she could run a huge race against Zenyatta after she was freshened.
Some great mares (better than St Trinians) have gotten their heads handed to them in Grade 1 races against older horses going 10F. I don't think it says much other than it's really hard for an outstanding mare to win at that level.
She came out of that race with problems anyway. That's why she was laid off.
classhandicapper
03-16-2011, 02:13 AM
Look, we all know why the names St Trinians and Switch are on the map.
I don't think Switch was on the map until she followed up her easy trip 2nd to Zenyatta with a troubled trip 2nd in the Breeder's Cup and back to back Grade 1 wins on the dirt this year. She was 8-1 in the BC sprint (I bet her in that race). It wasn't like she was a hot ticket because she ran 2nd to Zenyatta.
Before that she was generally considered a mediocre horse that ran Zenyatta to a 1/2 length because she had a huge ground and pace advantage or because they didn't think much of Zenyatta.
There were a few people (like myself) that noticed that prior to that she had shown some signs of ability by being competitive with some of the best 3YO fillies in the country who later demonstrated their quality in the east on dirt. So there was a chance she was actually getting good (which is why I bet her in the BC), but most people thought she was a non entity until later on when she accomplished more.
PaceAdvantage
03-16-2011, 03:00 AM
I can't believe you are trying to use her races from this year to make the case that she wasn't very good last year. She's had chronic physical issues, was laid off because of them, and is running on dirt now.
Many people (myself among them), thought she was a very good mare last year, but even last year we were all saying that she might not retain her form for long due to those soundness issues and conceded the strong possibility her form would not translate to dirt anyway.
If you want to say she was over bet in the SA Handicap last year, I would agree with that. That was a tough spot for all but a great mare. But IMO she was excellent in her races leading up to it. People that understand synthetic racing well (and the associated pace issues) understood that. That's why she was bet in such a tough spot and why many thought she could run a huge race against Zenyatta after she was freshened.
Some great mares (better than St Trinians) have gotten their heads handed to them in Grade 1 races against older horses going 10F. I don't think it says much other than it's really hard for an outstanding mare to win at that level.
She came out of that race with problems anyway. That's why she was laid off.She came into the Santa Anita Handicap (one of the weakest fields ever assembled for that race) with career earnings of under $300,000 if I'm not mistaken.
She never beat anyone of consequence overseas and she continued that streak here in the USA. She was severely overrated by those that made her the favorite in the SA Handicap and quite obviously by you as well.
Although I don't have her PPs handy, I'm pretty certain her only claim to fame (as far as victory is concerned) is a lone Grade 2 win over Life Is Sweet...that's it...no graded victories overseas on polytrack, and one Grade 2 win here....
I'm shocked the description "very good" can be used with a straight face.
PaceAdvantage
03-16-2011, 03:11 AM
Listen, Now why the heck would I listen to you? You don't even know how mysterious signatures end up appearing on all of your posts...how am I supposed to trust you on anything?
FenceBored
03-16-2011, 08:16 AM
She came into the Santa Anita Handicap (one of the weakest fields ever assembled for that race) with career earnings of under $300,000 if I'm not mistaken.
She never beat anyone of consequence overseas and she continued that streak here in the USA. She was severely overrated by those that made her the favorite in the SA Handicap and quite obviously by you as well.
Although I don't have her PPs handy, I'm pretty certain her only claim to fame (as far as victory is concerned) is a lone Grade 2 win over Life Is Sweet...that's it...no graded victories overseas on polytrack, and one Grade 2 win here....
I'm shocked the description "very good" can be used with a straight face.
Racing Post says you're right: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=710462
Boy, that Man O' War.....beat some slugs in his day, huh?:rolleyes:
PaceAdvantage
03-16-2011, 10:54 AM
Boy, that Man O' War.....beat some slugs in his day, huh?:rolleyes:So what are you saying? Judgement of horses is off limits here all of a sudden? Didn't you just have a lot to say about why you don't like Uncle Mo?
St. Trinian's has always been vastly overrated by many.
So what are you saying? Judgement of horses is off limits here all of a sudden? Didn't you just have a lot to say about why you don't like Uncle Mo?
Well ex-cuuuuuuuuuse me!
I must have stumbled onto Off-Broadway here. So much drama.
affirmedny
03-16-2011, 12:58 PM
I can't believe you are trying to use her races from this year to make the case that she wasn't very good last year. She's had chronic physical issues, was laid off because of them, and is running on dirt now.
I'm pretty sure I read that Mitchell said there was nothing wrong with her, she was just "tired" from running against Zenyatta
classhandicapper
03-16-2011, 01:13 PM
She came into the Santa Anita Handicap (one of the weakest fields ever assembled for that race) with career earnings of under $300,000 if I'm not mistaken.
She never beat anyone of consequence overseas and she continued that streak here in the USA. She was severely overrated by those that made her the favorite in the SA Handicap and quite obviously by you as well.
Although I don't have her PPs handy, I'm pretty certain her only claim to fame (as far as victory is concerned) is a lone Grade 2 win over Life Is Sweet...that's it...no graded victories overseas on polytrack, and one Grade 2 win here....
I'm shocked the description "very good" can be used with a straight face.
I agreed with your assessment of her chances in the SA Handicap, but that was not as weak a race as you are making it out to be.
Misremembered was a Grade 2 winner, was Grade 1 placed, and had run Blame to a neck in the Clark before that. He just came back to win his first start of this year.
Neko Bay had just won a Grade 2 against Misremembered in a prep for that race.
Dakota Phone was graded stake placed multiple times and won a Grade 2 and the Breeder's Cup mile after that.
The Beyer figure for the race was a 104 which is not bad based the standards for lower figure synthetic tracks.
As for St Trinians, she ran a Beyer of 102 in the Paseana. That is a good figure for a mare based on Beyer synthetic standards, but especially good in that race because the pace was slow. That was her 3rd straight win (each progressively more impressive) for her "new trainer" (you should look at who it is) on synthetic tracks.
Then she won the Santa Maria in a race that contained Life is Sweet (multiple Grade 1 winner and Ladies Classic winner), Muska (Grade 1 placed in the Spinster and Ladies Classic), Zardana (coming off a Grade 2 win that was followed up by intermittent other good performances). In that race she outkicked the field despite a ridiculously slow pace and came home in 23.1 and 28.4 (extremely fast). That slow pace clearly depressed the Beyer figure more than usual, but she still earned a 99.
So at that point she was 4-4, beat very good Grade 1 mares, and had done it despite disadvantageous paces.
Should she have been favored in the SA Handicap?
IMO no.
But she came out of it with problems, was freshened up, and then ran a great race against Zenyatta (though she did get the best of the weights and first move in a slow paced race against Zenyatta).
If you don't think that was a good campaign and one that demonstrated decent quality I really don't know what to say.
That she's not running well at 6 after a long layoff on a dirt track is borderline irrelevant.
classhandicapper
03-16-2011, 01:14 PM
I'm pretty sure I read that Mitchell said there was nothing wrong with her, she was just "tired" from running against Zenyatta
I read she was body sore etc... and very tired and they figured they weren't going to beat Zenyatta. Similar.
Robert Fischer
03-16-2011, 01:22 PM
I'm pretty sure I read that Mitchell said there was nothing wrong with her, she was just "tired" from running against Zenyatta
He knows way too much about horses to be given the benefit of the doubt with that kind of statement.
classhandicapper
03-16-2011, 01:23 PM
St. Trinian's has always been vastly overrated by many.
CJ,
With all due respect as a customer, admirer, and really a friend after all these years, you base 90% or more of your opinions about the quality of horses on your PFs. IMO it has been clear for some time that due to pace and other race development issues synthetic numbers do not translate to dirt quality well and especially when paces are slow by synthetic standards or specific horses come home especially fast late.
What we saw with Uncle Mo this week (a lowly 89 for a horse capable of a mid 100 figure) was practically the norm in CA in the big races for mares over the last two years and occurs at times in other major stakes also.
IMO many of those horses were underrated by some numbers oriented handicappers that are used to the Beyer dirt scale because the are not translating properly or understanding the pace impact on specific horses within some races.
Robert Fischer
03-16-2011, 01:28 PM
St Trinians has lots of natural talent.
Unfortunately she has tons of issues.
Under Mitchell's program she can find a niche and put up relatively big numbers. She could conceivably string together a number of good races if she isn't stressed. However when she is stressed and tested she will tend to regress.
Wickel
03-16-2011, 01:35 PM
Who's retired? St Trinians? Switch?
I believe Mine That Bird retired. The "wonder horse" that was defeated by Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. The horse that continued on to greatness --Ohhh, wait a second--Mine That Bird, the horse that never hit the board again after the Belmont, the horse that was blitzed by mediocre horses the remainder of his career. Yeah, Mine That Bird is retired and is down south in my state, in Roswell, with the aliens. That's the type of competition that Rachel so proudly faced and beat--except for her 4-year-old campaign when she actually ran like Mine That Bird!!!
Wickel
03-16-2011, 01:36 PM
Must be the Zenyatta "diety effect" that I had forgotten about.
One more thing: What's a diety????
Dahoss9698
03-16-2011, 01:42 PM
I believe Mine That Bird retired. The "wonder horse" that was defeated by Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. The horse that continued on to greatness --Ohhh, wait a second--Mine That Bird, the horse that never hit the board again after the Belmont, the horse that was blitzed by mediocre horses the remainder of his career. Yeah, Mine That Bird is retired and is down south in my state, in Roswell, with the aliens. That's the type of competition that Rachel so proudly faced and beat--except for her 4-year-old campaign when she actually ran like Mine That Bird!!!
Didn't Mine That Bird finish 3rd at Mountaineer after the Belmont?
Wickel
03-16-2011, 01:49 PM
DaHoss, you're probably right. I couldn't believe this thread was posted. I was just ranting. I guess we'll just have to pick up the debate again when their foals meet on the racetrack (speaking of Z and RA, of course).
CJ,
With all due respect as a customer, admirer, and really a friend after all these years, you base 90% or more of your opinions about the quality of horses on your PFs. IMO it has been clear for some time that due to pace and other race development issues synthetic numbers do not translate to dirt quality well and especially when paces are slow by synthetic standards or specific horses come home especially fast late.
What we saw with Uncle Mo this week (a lowly 89 for a horse capable of a mid 100 figure) was practically the norm in CA in the big races for mares over the last two years and occurs at times in other major stakes also.
IMO many of those horses were underrated by some numbers oriented handicappers that are used to the Beyer dirt scale because the are not translating properly or understanding the pace impact on specific horses within some races.
I think I have a very good understanding of synthetic racing and how the figures translate. The figures are different, but mostly when the pace is a slow. That was certainly not the case in the SAH, and to a lesser extent the Vanity. The figures for her in those races are fine, and pretty much showed what she could do on dirt if she handled the surface.
FenceBored
03-16-2011, 03:03 PM
I believe Mine That Bird retired. The "wonder horse" that was defeated by Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. The horse that continued on to greatness --Ohhh, wait a second--Mine That Bird, the horse that never hit the board again after the Belmont, the horse that was blitzed by mediocre horses the remainder of his career. Yeah, Mine That Bird is retired and is down south in my state, in Roswell, with the aliens. That's the type of competition that Rachel so proudly faced and beat--except for her 4-year-old campaign when she actually ran like Mine That Bird!!!
That's dispicable. St. Trinians dreams of having Mine That Birds's class. Mine That Bird is a Champion who won multiple graded stakes races internationally.
As a group, horses returning in dirt routes off of six-month-plus layoffs underperform significantly. Plus, synthetic plays differently than dirt and many horses will distinctly prefer one surface over the other.
Whatever St. Trinians was or wasn't last year, I wouldn't use a dirt race off of a nine-month layoff as a basis for rating her previous synthetic performances.
Dahoss9698
03-16-2011, 04:35 PM
As a group, horses returning in dirt routes off of six-month-plus layoffs underperform significantly. Plus, synthetic plays differently than dirt and many horses will distinctly prefer one surface over the other.
Whatever St. Trinians was or wasn't last year, I wouldn't use a dirt race off of a nine-month layoff as a basis for rating her previous synthetic performances.
This wasn't St Trinians first race off the layoff. She was 3rd last month in the Santa Maria.
classhandicapper
03-16-2011, 04:56 PM
I think I have a very good understanding of synthetic racing and how the figures translate. The figures are different, but mostly when the pace is a slow. That was certainly not the case in the SAH, and to a lesser extent the Vanity. The figures for her in those races are fine, and pretty much showed what she could do on dirt if she handled the surface.
I'm sure you'll agree that you can't simply assume that if a synthetic pace is more dirt like (as was the case in the SAH), that the horses are going to run a dirt like number. There is a reason the paces are slower on average to begin with. It's because when they run dirt like paces early they often don't finish as well as they do on dirt and it costs them.
Either way, it's not like that was such a terribly slow race at a 104 Beyer (the winner just ran a 105 on dirt in his first race off a layoff since then). Those horses were too good for all but the very best mares you are going to see. She was very far back early, made a big very wide move to get into the race, and hung a little "at 10F". She needed a rest after that.
The pace in the Vanity up front was not slow relative to the norms on synthetic, but both Zenyatta and St Trinians (more so Zenyatta) were far off it after a 1/4 mile and finished faster at the end of the race than they had run in the beginning (more so Zenyatta) while taking each other well out on the track on the turn. In other words, they were both flying. To me, almost by definition you have a problem with speed figures when that's the case.
IMO its too complex to quantify all this crap and make cross surface comparisons with a lot of confidence when we are talking about a couple of points here or there. But I'm not even sure what the disagreement is though.
A 102 is not a bad figure for a Grade 1 mare. That's the PAR for all Grade 1 3+ filly and mare races from 2005-2009 on dirt. She did that twice on synthetic, had a rough trip in the SAH, and ran a 99 with an extremely fast finish in another race.
I don't think anyone ever called her a super horse. I think many of us thought she was a solid Grade 1 mare that was being underrated going into the Zenyatta race and again afterward when some people were still trying to diminish Zenyatta's competition.
A 102 is not a bad figure for a Grade 1 mare. That's the PAR for all Grade 1 3+ filly and mare races from 2005-2009 on dirt. She did that twice on synthetic, had a rough trip in the SAH, and ran a 99 with an extremely fast finish in another race.
I'm sure you realize the published Beyers are pretty much fake on synthetics these days. She simply never ran that fast, overall or even just late.
Stillriledup
03-16-2011, 05:57 PM
St Trinians is a horse with an exremely awkward gait. Its a gait that's not conducive to a long and healthy career. Horses like this can have a short span of brilliance, but then once the health issues set it, its almost impossible to get back to previous levels of performance. The current version of St Trin is nowhere near the verision who was racing in top form in the beginning, so, to start a post that St T lost a horse race today and therefore that proves she wasn't very good all along is just not correct. S T was very good in top form, this is not the same horse.
...Horses like this can have a short span of brilliance,...
Give us a heads up when that span occurs, because it hasn't yet.
affirmedny
03-16-2011, 06:12 PM
I read she was body sore etc... and very tired and they figured they weren't going to beat Zenyatta. Similar.
body sore is not a "chronic ailment" was the point I was making.
Robert Fischer
03-16-2011, 06:33 PM
body sore is not a "chronic ailment" was the point I was making.
not sure of the context as it related to your original point, but the "body sore" story was a canard.
This wasn't St Trinians first race off the layoff. She was 3rd last month in the Santa Maria.
Goes to show how much I follow Cali racing. Thanks for the correction.
PaceAdvantage
03-16-2011, 07:40 PM
I couldn't believe this thread was posted.What? Why? This simply blows my mind...after all this time, I can't discuss a horse (who in my opinion was way overrated) just because she once upon a time raced Zenyatta to within a couple of inches of embarrassment?? Am I even allowed to type her name anymore? Perhaps I should type it Zen-atta in order to calm the more orthodox among us.
And you bring up Rachel? What the heck does Rachel have to do with St Trinians? So confusing some of you are....
PaceAdvantage
03-16-2011, 07:46 PM
One more thing: What's a diety????The last thing I ever do is call someone out for a simple spelling error...but hey, if that's what you think it takes to prevail in the discussion, please continue with your pettiness.
Saratoga_Mike
03-16-2011, 08:00 PM
What? Why? This simply blows my mind...after all this time, I can't discuss a horse (who in my opinion was way overrated) just because she once upon a time raced Zenyatta to within a couple of inches of embarrassment?? Am I even allowed to type her name anymore? Perhaps I should type it Zen-atta in order to calm the more orthodox among us.
And you bring up Rachel? What the heck does Rachel have to do with St Trinians? So confusing some of you are....
You've certainly never prevented anyone from discussing RA (or any horse that I'm aware of), but you have gotten testy with a number of people over the past nine months or so when they mentioned that RA didn't come back the same horse in 2010. No big deal, but perhaps the Z camp is just getting a little testy now, which explains their defensiveness.
FenceBored
03-16-2011, 08:59 PM
You've certainly never prevented anyone from discussing RA (or any horse that I'm aware of), but you have gotten testy with a number of people over the past nine months or so when they mentioned that RA didn't come back the same horse in 2010. No big deal, but perhaps the Z camp is just getting a little testy now, which explains their defensiveness.
Getting?
Wickel
03-16-2011, 11:46 PM
The last thing I ever do is call someone out for a simple spelling error...but hey, if that's what you think it takes to prevail in the discussion, please continue with your pettiness.
My bad. I apologize. I just interpreted this post as another attack on the Zenyatta gang disguised as a St. Trinians thread. If this wasn't the intent, I apologize again. Fact of the matter is, Zenyatta was an incredible racehorse--male or female. She received her truly deserved Horse of the Year Award and moved on to make little Zenyattas. I think she should be respected for what she accomplished.
Nikki1997
03-17-2011, 12:26 AM
What? Why? This simply blows my mind...after all this time, I can't discuss a horse (who in my opinion was way overrated) just because she once upon a time raced Zenyatta to within a couple of inches of embarrassment?? Am I even allowed to type her name anymore? Perhaps I should type it Zen-atta in order to calm the more orthodox among us.
And you bring up Rachel? What the heck does Rachel have to do with St Trinians? So confusing some of you are....
LOL. Rachel has nothing to do with St. Trinians and you know it. Your protest of innocence here is, well, so becoming AND pathetic.
You initiated this damn thread, some have called you on it and now you're going to cry "foul". Good grief, Jerry. Can't you do any better? (In case you're wondering, I am referring to Jerry Springer - use your imagination)
Stillriledup
03-17-2011, 05:56 AM
My bad. I apologize. I just interpreted this post as another attack on the Zenyatta gang disguised as a St. Trinians thread. If this wasn't the intent, I apologize again. Fact of the matter is, Zenyatta was an incredible racehorse--male or female. She received her truly deserved Horse of the Year Award and moved on to make little Zenyattas. I think she should be respected for what she accomplished.
Of course it was a thread to 'prove' that the west coast horses aren't all that good, that's not even up for debate. The idea of the thread was to emphasize the winning horse's odds, it was to try and show that some horse who 'showed nothing on paper' beat the 'great' St Trinians. That's all it was about.
I find it interesting that an east coast reject went west and won a G1. Any real bettor should take that info seriously. Those who focus on some alleged agenda here probably don't bet. They are missing a good tidbit of info.
classhandicapper
03-17-2011, 11:31 AM
I'm sure you realize the published Beyers are pretty much fake on synthetics these days. She simply never ran that fast, overall or even just late.
CJ,
We've discussed this, but for the benefit of others.
Initially Beyer looked at his synthetic figures and saw the same type of figure compression we see on turf. So he and everyone else agreed there must be some kind of race development issue that was allowing the worst horses on the grounds to run faster than usual and preventing some of the best horses from running as fast as they were capable of. Most agreed pace was at least part of the issue.
What Beyer did was tweak his formula so that his figures would be more in line with dirt figures, but he also ARBITRARILY decided not to tweak it by as much as the average difference because he ASSUMED synthetic horses weren't as good a dirt horses. So the top synthetic horses were STILL slower than the top dirt horses even after his modification.
There were two problems with that approach
1. If pace is part of the issue (and most think it is), then looking at averages is not going account for the more extreme pace scenarios. That's a big problem because very slow paces are very common on synthetic tracks compared to dirt.
2. When he arbitrarily decided that synthetic horses were inferior and slower he never actually decided to take a look at how well highly versatile horses were doing when they shipped east to west and vice versa the way he normally does to keep circuits in sync.
IMO #1 requires a more detailed analysis of horses' actual closing times. When you see synthetic horses with fractions much like Uncle Mo's where they are closing faster late than they ran early (especially if it's extreme), you know you have a major figure issue that is hard to resolve because it's likely the horse could have run faster with a different pace.
Handicapper's can approach that any way they want, but I tend to look relative performance within the race (the way the_fat_man used to) and look at prior figures under more normal conditions. To me all formulas fall part because all the horses are different in terms of their balance of stamina and speed.
IMO #2 was the much bigger issue.
Ever since this figure issue came up tons of supposedly slow high level horses from the west shipped east and ran faster than their synthetic figures. Every time that happened the story was "he/she just liked dirt better" despite the fact that very often there was virtually no difference in the look of their PPs.
On the flip side, virtually every high level horse that shipped east to west ran slower figures on synthetic. Every time that happened the story was "he/she just liked hated synthetic" despite the fact that sometimes there was virtually no difference in the look of their PPs.
Some horses obviously hated the synthetic track and/or preferred dirt, but shockingly, few if any eastern based horses seemed to like synthetic better (according to Beyer figures) even though we know that some horses in CA are clearly better on synthetic than dirt.
To me, the obvious conclusion was that there were still major issues with those figures and that Beyer seemingly did not tweak "average" enough at the top. The quality of the best synthetic horses was still understated relative to the best dirt horses and a more detailed analysis of pace and actual closing times was required to understand those cross surface comparisons.
I'll have to find the article to verify, but I thought he brought the pars in line. I don't remember anything about not matching them because synthetic horses were inferior.
They will make synthetic figures closer to those for dirt. Top-class stakes horses will earn figures as much as 4 points higher.
In Southern California, the average winning figure in all stakes for older males is 102 on synthetics, compared with 106 on dirt.
There is nothing in the article to indicate he thinks synthetic horses are "weaker".
PhantomOnTour
03-17-2011, 11:43 AM
I find it interesting that an east coast reject went west and won a G1. Any real bettor should take that info seriously. Those who think there was some agenda here probably don't bet.
Not long ago Student Council did the same thing in the Pac Classic.
classhandicapper
03-17-2011, 11:46 AM
I find it interesting that an east coast reject went west and won a G1. Any real bettor should take that info seriously. Those who think there was some agenda here probably don't bet.
I am sure there are many people (like me) that are taking that performance just as seriously as the dozens of supposedly slow horses that shipped west to east and did the same thing over the last few years.
Either that performance indicates that those mares ran poorly or that her new trainer has her rolling at a new peak.
IMO it's probably a little of each.
Switch was a little suspect stretching out, Always a Princess broke down, St Trinian's form looks better on synthetic, and Vision of Gold stole her last win and was never much to begin with.
Drysdale probably has Miss Match at a new peak and he caught the right field on the right day to steal a Grade 1.
I am sure there are many people (like me) that are taking that performance just as seriously as the dozens of supposedly slow horses that shipped west to east and did the same thing over the last few years.
I'm sure it is some of both. However, winning a G1 with a 96 on dirt isn't much as you know.
As of the horses that shipped East, they involved a surface change, and most of those the improved ran better on dirt. They weren't horses that were running as well on rubber. That isn't the case here. This is a dirt to dirt comparison.
classhandicapper
03-17-2011, 12:13 PM
There is nothing in the article to indicate he thinks synthetic horses are "weaker".
By "weaker" I meant inferior.
Here's what Beyer said about his figures after he tweaked the formula.
"However, the best stakes horses and even some top-quality allowance horses will not necessarily earn figures on synthetic tracks that are as high as the best horses run on dirt. The reason has to do with the horses themselves, not the calculation of the figures. The U.S. Thoroughbred industry produces horses bred for speed and bred (for the most part) to run on dirt. It would not be logical to expect that America's very best horses would be just as productive on non-dirt surfaces that usually don't favor speed. Moreover, the early pace in stakes races on synthetic surfaces is often unrealistically slow - so slow that horses can't make up enough time in the stretch to produce their best possible final time."
That's why even after his adjustment he was willing to accept the fact that that the Graded Stakes Pars were still a lot slower on synthetic than dirt.
I don't even think it was unrealistic to assume that at the start.
While he addressed the extreme pace issue, what he never considered was the possibility that some horses supposedly bred for dirt actually preferred synthetic, others were equally good, and when you tossed in all the turf horses that also liked it, that the quality would be similar or at least better than his initial "bias" suggested.
From then on he simply explained away every quality west cost shipper that came east and ran faster on his numbers as another horse that preferred dirt and every east coast horse that went west and ran slower as another one that didn't like synthetic even when their non numeric form looked almost identical.
In truth, that's why he's been so wrong on so many horses for several years. He's a salve to his numbers but IMO they were misleading a lot of the time.
classhandicapper
03-17-2011, 12:33 PM
As of the horses that shipped East, they involved a surface change, and most of those the improved ran better on dirt. They weren't horses that were running as well on rubber.
This is the problem. When a synthetic horse came east and ran faster it was always ASSUMED to be a surface preference issue. But in many cases that wasn't the issue. On a "qualitative basis" the synthetic figures were still depressed even after the tweaking.
We all agree that some CA stakes horses simply prefer synthetic to dirt.
So why didn't we also see at least some eastern based horses that shipped to CA for the BC or other stakes run faster. At least some should have been equal or preferred synthetic just like all those CA horses.
It's because the dirt horses that do like synthetic wind up running a tad slower on average on synthetic. Same quality, slower figures.
FenceBored
03-17-2011, 01:02 PM
Wouldn't an examination of the horses who have stayed East of the Mississippi and run on both dirt and the Midwestern synthetic tracks provide a better basis for making a comparison between Beyers on dirt and synthetic? One wouldn't have the additional variables related to the transcontinental change to deal with. There are plenty of horses that regularly switch between dirt and synthetic running in the East. Between the 4 different Polytrack installations (Kee/TP/AP/WO) and the Tapeta at PID there's plenty of grist for the mill.
That's why even after his adjustment he was willing to accept the fact that that the Graded Stakes Pars were still a lot slower on synthetic than dirt.
I don't even think it was unrealistic to assume that at the start.
He probably got it right, even if by accident. The reason the figures are depressed is because of how the races are run, not because the horses are weaker. The best turf figures have never approached the best dirt numbers...same thing here.
classhandicapper
03-17-2011, 01:07 PM
I'm going to busy for awhile, but here's one last attempt.
Assume a horse in CA that typically runs a 100 on synthetic tracks faces a dirt horse that typically runs a 102 and beats him on dirt with a 104.
All else being equal, this would be my conclusion.
Either the CA horse prefers dirt and/or the synthetic figure was not expressing his quality properly relative to dirt horses.
Assume the same two horses run on synthetic next and this time the CA horse runs his usual 100 and the dirt horse runs a 98.
In isolation, you might assume the dirt horse doesn't like synthetic as much.
But in this case I think it's fairly obvious that the CA horse is simply superior and the figures are fluctuating because of the surface.
That's where "I" wound up.
The evidence indicated to me that speed figures were not in sync on a qualitative basis. The actual final times were more or less irrelevant to me. I needed a way to equate the "quality" of the horses and not worry about how fast they were on each surface.
To me, there two ways of dealing with this.
1. Throw out all the numbers completely and use a qualitative approach (class designation, identify strong and weak fields, comparative trip within a race, race dynamics, watch the shippers in and out etc..)
2. Try to adjust the figures to equalize the quality.
IMHO Beyer chose the latter route, but underestimated it.
classhandicapper
03-17-2011, 01:14 PM
He probably got it right, even if by accident. The reason the figures are depressed is because of how the races are run, not because the horses are weaker. The best turf figures have never approached the best dirt numbers...same thing here.
Yep.
Once Beyer started playing with adjustments, he was playing with fire. Jerry Brown said that right from the start. I disagreed at the time, but IMO he was right. I'd tell him so if I wasn't barred for the 3rd time. :lol:
I preferred your approach which was simply to tell me how fast (or slow :lol:) they were running, and I worried independently about how those horses stacked up against dirt horses and how the paces were impacting their times.
My only beef over the last few years was that IMHO people in general were underestimating the quality of some of the very best CA stakes horses because they were running slow. But they were running slow because they were on synthetic.
Time to call it a day. ;)
thaskalos
03-17-2011, 01:43 PM
I find it interesting that an east coast reject went west and won a G1. Any real bettor should take that info seriously. Those who focus on some alleged agenda here probably don't bet.
That's true...we don't bet.
You finally figured us out...
toussaud
03-17-2011, 03:36 PM
you can't realistically draw anything from that race. Always a princess, who I think is the best horse in the race, broke down, st T is a synthetic horse waiting for hollywood park.. she smokes this group at hollywood park. She was in it and Joe asked for run at the turn and she just stopped.
That's true...we don't bet.
You finally figured us out...
I figured it out a long time ago.
PaceAdvantage
03-17-2011, 08:56 PM
LOL. Rachel has nothing to do with St. Trinians and you know it. Your protest of innocence here is, well, so becoming AND pathetic.
You initiated this damn thread, some have called you on it and now you're going to cry "foul". Good grief, Jerry. Can't you do any better? (In case you're wondering, I am referring to Jerry Springer - use your imagination)You seem agitated. Odd....
Stillriledup
03-17-2011, 09:24 PM
That's true...we don't bet.
You finally figured us out...
Hey, welcome to the club, i'm one of the ones who doesnt bet either according to a small segment of the PA populus.
After we learn the game better from the people here to DO actually bet, we might accumulate enough knowledge to approach the window.
Maybe one day we can be as good as the experts here at PA who have outed us as bystanders and not actual parimutuel participants!
Dahoss9698
03-17-2011, 09:34 PM
Hey, welcome to the club, i'm one of the ones who doesnt bet either according to a small segment of the PA populus.
The segment isn't that small.
Hey, welcome to the club, i'm one of the ones who doesnt bet either according to a small segment of the PA populus.
After we learn the game better from the people here to DO actually bet, we might accumulate enough knowledge to approach the window.
Maybe one day we can be as good as the experts here at PA who have outed us as bystanders and not actual parimutuel participants!
Actually, I begged you to tell me where you would move your TuP action.
eastie
03-19-2011, 11:36 AM
....and nary a word posted on this board that I remember seeing... :lol:
EbdxQSFu_Tg
she never recovered from Zenyatta.....kinda like when Frazier fought Foreman, he hadn't recovered from Ali
PaceAdvantage
03-19-2011, 11:02 PM
she never recovered from Zenyatta.....kinda like when Frazier fought Foreman, he hadn't recovered from AliSwitch went on to win a couple of nice races, did she not? How was she able to recover from her encounter with the Almighty One?
Could it be St Trinians just wasn't as good as some people thought?
Stillriledup
03-19-2011, 11:13 PM
Switch went on to win a couple of nice races, did she not? How was she able to recover from her encounter with the Almighty One?
Could it be St Trinians just wasn't as good as some people thought?
Do you have any specific 'some people' in mind?
PaceAdvantage
03-20-2011, 03:33 AM
Do you have any specific 'some people' in mind?Yeah...all those that helped make her the 3-1 favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap...
classhandicapper
03-20-2011, 12:03 PM
Could it be St Trinians just wasn't as good as some people thought?
It could be, but that's obviously not the case here because no one here thought she deserved to be the favorite in the SA handicap at 10F. They thought she was a solid Grade 1 mare on her preferred surface and still think that. The public that made her the favorite that race obviously overestimated her. The public often overestimates the chances of Grade 1 mares when they face older horses at 10F. That gap is large on average. It's a very tough spot.
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