canuck
10-18-2003, 08:38 PM
The last four runnings of the Breeders Cup in California has been brutal to the east shippers and Euro invaders.
Home court advantage will once again be prevalent but with the aid of my shiny new Crushing the Cup 2003 which they give away gratis at the OJC-(what a swell bunch of reptiles)-there are some Euros and East Coasters who may make some noise.
The key--according to the authors of this little tome--is to concede home court advantage unless you come across a Road Warrior which is defined below--i think....
The tools being used to arrive at the contenders are
1) 4-6 factors to get your basic contenders
2) an index to further fine tune them (the Crushing Index )
3) very careful attention to the Road Warrior
Here are the 8 races in order--i am now going for several ales and a pork pie
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 2 - Post Time 10:20
Breeders' Cup Distaff Presented by Nextel – Purse $2,000,000
1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) - For fillies and mares 3 years old and up
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are five factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and Grade 1 win for domestics in 2003
#3 No wins at the distance
#4 Layoff 35+ days
#5 Less than 5 races leading up to this race in 2003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adoration #1 #2 #3 #5
Azeri
Buy The Sport
Elloluv #3
Got Koko
Lady Tak #3 #4
Sightseek
Take Charge Lady
The Crushing Index for this race is Par 107(103 for 3 year olds) plus # of wins plus beyers over 100
Adoration *2*
Azeri *9*
Buy The Sport *2*
Elloluv *7*
Got Koko *7*
Lady Tak *6*
Sightseek *16*
The Road Warriors in this race are Got Koko and Azeri
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 3 - Post Time 10:55
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies – Purse $1,000,000
1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs) - For 2 year old fillies
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No stakes wins
#3 No less than 3 and no more than 6 races
#4 Layoff of 30+ days
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ashado
Be Gentle
Class Above #3 #4
Dixie High #4
Forest Music #2 #3
Halfbridled
Hollywood Story #2
Renaissance Lady #1 #2 #3
Shadow of Mine #1 #2
Society Selection #3
Tarlow #2 #3
Victory U.S.A #2
Vino Tinto #3
Zosima
My goodness--10 of them knocked out
The Crushing Index =overall wins +95+beyers+90+route beyers+3 points for sprint to route beyer improvement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ashado *6*
Be Gentle *3*
Class Above *5*
Dixie High *3*
Forest Music *2*
Halfbridled *6*
Hollywood Story *3*
Renaissance Lady *1*
Shadow of Mine *4*
Society Selection *7*
Tarlow *6*
Victory U.S.A. *6*
Vino Tinto *2*
Zosima *6*
Historically a CI of 5 has won 9 out of the last 12 leaving us with 3 contenders factoring in the knock eliminations.
There are no Road Warriors in this group.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 4 - Post Time 11:35
Netjets Breeders' Cup Mile – Purse $1,500,000
1 mile on Turf (8 furlongs) – 3 year olds and up
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are six factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and stakes win for domestics in 2003
#3 No win at the distance in 2003
#4 Three year olds must have been competitive to elders
#5 A Beyer top is an automatic toss
#6 Never run to par-(this race is 109)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Century City-#3 #5 #6
Decarchy #2 #3 #6
Designed for Luck #5 #6
Freefourinternet #5 #6
Irish Warrior #3 #6
Oasis Dream #3 #5 (time form adjusted--just topped)
Peace Rules #3
Perfect Soul #5 #6
Refuse To Bend #1
Sarafan
Six Perfections #5
Soaring Free #6
Special Ring #3
Touch of the Blues #6
Important note--subtract 13 points from the Timeform rating
on a European runner to get a Beyer equivalent.
SARAFAN IS THE ONLY NAG TO FLY UNDER THE RADAR AND SURVIVE THE
AXE. MIGHT BE A HALF DECENT PRICE.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 5 - Post Time 12:10
Breeders' Cup Sprint – Purse $1,000,000
6 furlongs – 3 year olds and up
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 Less than 4 preps leading up to this race
#3 No wins at the distance
#4 No stakes wins (any stakes)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aldebaran #3
Bluesthestandard
Cajun Beat
Captain Squire
Ethan Man #2
Midas Eyes #2 #3
Posse
Private Horde
Shake You Down
Valid Video
Yanke Gentleman #2
Zavata
Looks like we got rid of the chalk and a couple of dogs.
On to the Crushing Index
Aldebaran *13*
Bluesthestandard *11*
Cajun Beat *6*
Captain Squire *5*
Ethan Man *2*
Midas Eyes *3*
Posse *7*
Private Horde *13*
Shake You Down *17*
Valid Video *8*
Yanke Gentleman *5*
Zavata *5*
The Road Warriors are Aldebaran/Posse/Private Horde/Valid Video
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home court advantage will once again be prevalent but with the aid of my shiny new Crushing the Cup 2003 which they give away gratis at the OJC-(what a swell bunch of reptiles)-there are some Euros and East Coasters who may make some noise.
The key--according to the authors of this little tome--is to concede home court advantage unless you come across a Road Warrior which is defined below--i think....
The tools being used to arrive at the contenders are
1) 4-6 factors to get your basic contenders
2) an index to further fine tune them (the Crushing Index )
3) very careful attention to the Road Warrior
Here are the 8 races in order--i am now going for several ales and a pork pie
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 2 - Post Time 10:20
Breeders' Cup Distaff Presented by Nextel – Purse $2,000,000
1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) - For fillies and mares 3 years old and up
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are five factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and Grade 1 win for domestics in 2003
#3 No wins at the distance
#4 Layoff 35+ days
#5 Less than 5 races leading up to this race in 2003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adoration #1 #2 #3 #5
Azeri
Buy The Sport
Elloluv #3
Got Koko
Lady Tak #3 #4
Sightseek
Take Charge Lady
The Crushing Index for this race is Par 107(103 for 3 year olds) plus # of wins plus beyers over 100
Adoration *2*
Azeri *9*
Buy The Sport *2*
Elloluv *7*
Got Koko *7*
Lady Tak *6*
Sightseek *16*
The Road Warriors in this race are Got Koko and Azeri
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 3 - Post Time 10:55
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies – Purse $1,000,000
1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs) - For 2 year old fillies
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No stakes wins
#3 No less than 3 and no more than 6 races
#4 Layoff of 30+ days
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ashado
Be Gentle
Class Above #3 #4
Dixie High #4
Forest Music #2 #3
Halfbridled
Hollywood Story #2
Renaissance Lady #1 #2 #3
Shadow of Mine #1 #2
Society Selection #3
Tarlow #2 #3
Victory U.S.A #2
Vino Tinto #3
Zosima
My goodness--10 of them knocked out
The Crushing Index =overall wins +95+beyers+90+route beyers+3 points for sprint to route beyer improvement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ashado *6*
Be Gentle *3*
Class Above *5*
Dixie High *3*
Forest Music *2*
Halfbridled *6*
Hollywood Story *3*
Renaissance Lady *1*
Shadow of Mine *4*
Society Selection *7*
Tarlow *6*
Victory U.S.A. *6*
Vino Tinto *2*
Zosima *6*
Historically a CI of 5 has won 9 out of the last 12 leaving us with 3 contenders factoring in the knock eliminations.
There are no Road Warriors in this group.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 4 - Post Time 11:35
Netjets Breeders' Cup Mile – Purse $1,500,000
1 mile on Turf (8 furlongs) – 3 year olds and up
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are six factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and stakes win for domestics in 2003
#3 No win at the distance in 2003
#4 Three year olds must have been competitive to elders
#5 A Beyer top is an automatic toss
#6 Never run to par-(this race is 109)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Century City-#3 #5 #6
Decarchy #2 #3 #6
Designed for Luck #5 #6
Freefourinternet #5 #6
Irish Warrior #3 #6
Oasis Dream #3 #5 (time form adjusted--just topped)
Peace Rules #3
Perfect Soul #5 #6
Refuse To Bend #1
Sarafan
Six Perfections #5
Soaring Free #6
Special Ring #3
Touch of the Blues #6
Important note--subtract 13 points from the Timeform rating
on a European runner to get a Beyer equivalent.
SARAFAN IS THE ONLY NAG TO FLY UNDER THE RADAR AND SURVIVE THE
AXE. MIGHT BE A HALF DECENT PRICE.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 5 - Post Time 12:10
Breeders' Cup Sprint – Purse $1,000,000
6 furlongs – 3 year olds and up
HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!
#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)
#2 Less than 4 preps leading up to this race
#3 No wins at the distance
#4 No stakes wins (any stakes)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aldebaran #3
Bluesthestandard
Cajun Beat
Captain Squire
Ethan Man #2
Midas Eyes #2 #3
Posse
Private Horde
Shake You Down
Valid Video
Yanke Gentleman #2
Zavata
Looks like we got rid of the chalk and a couple of dogs.
On to the Crushing Index
Aldebaran *13*
Bluesthestandard *11*
Cajun Beat *6*
Captain Squire *5*
Ethan Man *2*
Midas Eyes *3*
Posse *7*
Private Horde *13*
Shake You Down *17*
Valid Video *8*
Yanke Gentleman *5*
Zavata *5*
The Road Warriors are Aldebaran/Posse/Private Horde/Valid Video
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------