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menifee
03-13-2011, 12:45 AM
1. Not impressed with the Tampa Bay Derby field before the race, certainly not impressed after the race. None of these horses should be in the Derby.

2. Not impressed with Uncle Mo's comeback race. Still to early to tell, but I think you can make a lot of money by betting against him in the Wood. It was a paid workout and he looks like another War Pass to me.

3. Not impressed with Cori Nakatani's ride on Comma to the Top (yes I bet him at those odds). I thought this horse was a great overlay. The horse does not need to be on the lead and why Cori thought keeping him close to the lead on those fractions was reasonable is beyond me.

4. Not impressed with Jaycito - he's done.

5. Impressed with Tampa Bay Downs - great betting fields, pretty good racing. Every race has full fields. Compared to Aqueduct, Fair Grounds and Santa Anita, Tampa Bay knows how to card its races and get full fields.

6. Impressed with the San Vincente - this might be the key race for the Derby. I have a feeling that the Top 3 will be heard from on Derby Day.

Irish Boy
03-13-2011, 12:56 PM
duly noted

DRIVEWAY
03-13-2011, 01:33 PM
1. Not impressed with the Tampa Bay Derby field before the race, certainly not impressed after the race. None of these horses should be in the Derby.

2. Not impressed with Uncle Mo's comeback race. Still to early to tell, but I think you can make a lot of money by betting against him in the Wood. It was a paid workout and he looks like another War Pass to me.

3. Not impressed with Cori Nakatani's ride on Comma to the Top (yes I bet him at those odds). I thought this horse was a great overlay. The horse does not need to be on the lead and why Cori thought keeping him close to the lead on those fractions was reasonable is beyond me.

4. Not impressed with Jaycito - he's done.

5. Impressed with Tampa Bay Downs - great betting fields, pretty good racing. Every race has full fields. Compared to Aqueduct, Fair Grounds and Santa Anita, Tampa Bay knows how to card its races and get full fields.

6. Impressed with the San Vincente - this might be the key race for the Derby. I have a feeling that the Top 3 will be heard from on Derby Day.

Can't remember the last time a 7 Furlong race was considered a key race for the Derby. Normally a 1 1/8 race jumps up as the key. Has anyone even run that far yet?

Thanks for your insight.

cj
03-13-2011, 01:36 PM
Can't remember the last time a 7 Furlong race was considered a key race for the Derby. Normally a 1 1/8 race jumps up as the key. Has anyone even run that far yet?

Thanks for your insight.

I suspect he simply has the name wrong. Don't you?

Plenty have run 1 1/8 miles.

DRIVEWAY
03-13-2011, 01:59 PM
I suspect he simply has the name wrong. Don't you?

Plenty have run 1 1/8 miles.

I think he meant what he said. The San Vincente ran last month at 7 Furlongs.

As far as races for 3 yr olds at 1 1/8, they are yet to be run. Did I miss a race at 1 1/8 for 3 yr olds on the Derby Trail?

Wood, BlueGrass, Lanes End, Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, Dubai Race etc.

What distance is the Fountain of Youth this year?

menifee
03-13-2011, 11:19 PM
I think he meant what he said. The San Vincente ran last month at 7 Furlongs.

As far as races for 3 yr olds at 1 1/8, they are yet to be run. Did I miss a race at 1 1/8 for 3 yr olds on the Derby Trail?

Wood, BlueGrass, Lanes End, Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, Dubai Race etc.

What distance is the Fountain of Youth this year?

I did mean what I said. I think the San Vincente has been the best prep so far. I know it was 7f and one turn, but I have a feeling that the first three finishers are very good horses who can stretch out.

Stillriledup
03-14-2011, 03:43 AM
I'm not sure what Nak was doing there with Comma, first time front bandages, he was sent into a big duel instead of sitting off the duel, the horse was spectacular for 4th, he was used extremely hard and hung around and got into the super, gutty effort.

FenceBored
03-14-2011, 08:11 AM
I think he meant what he said. The San Vincente ran last month at 7 Furlongs.

As far as races for 3 yr olds at 1 1/8, they are yet to be run. Did I miss a race at 1 1/8 for 3 yr olds on the Derby Trail?

Wood, BlueGrass, Lanes End, Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, Dubai Race etc.

What distance is the Fountain of Youth this year?

The FOY was 1 1/8. And six of the eight starters in it had already run another 9f race.

Also 9f were the G2 Robert B. Lewis and the G3 El Camino Real Derby.

Pell Mell
03-14-2011, 11:08 AM
I just haven't been able to get excited over the CA races but I may after I see how The Factor runs in the Rebel this weekend, if he goes.
The early fractions they have been running seems to make those races too far out of the ordinary. :confused:

http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/

DRIVEWAY
03-14-2011, 12:54 PM
The FOY was 1 1/8. And six of the eight starters in it had already run another 9f race.

Also 9f were the G2 Robert B. Lewis and the G3 El Camino Real Derby.

Thanks for your input.

I see the Robert B. Lewis was run at 1 1/8 for the first time this year. In the past at 1 1/16 Ferdinand(1986) went on to win the roses. Sham(1973) ran second to the great Secreteriat. The ITM horses this year should come back in a G1 a 1 1/8 and we'll see the strength of the race.

The El Camino Real Derby was run at 1 1/8 on poly for the fourth time. This G3 race with a purse of $150K doesn't appear to be a serious derby prep.

The FOY has been recognized as a strong prep for the Derby at both 1 1/16
and more recently at a 1 1/8. Soldat is recognized as a serious contender this year.

The most serious 1 1/8 preps at G1 and G2 are yet to be run. The upcoming races four to six weeks prior to the Derby are the races to watch closely in your Derby analysis. There are no hard and fast rules but success at 1 1/8 on dirt in early April has a high correlation to having your picture taken on the first saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

Good luck with your Derby pick.

menifee
03-19-2011, 10:03 PM
The Factor dominates. San Vincente is a key race for the handicapping purposes and will be a key race for the Derby. Disappointed by Sway Away, but I have a feeling this horse will be heard from again. I am an east coaster, but I think the Califorina contingent is much stronger this year than the east coast horses.

Robert Goren
03-19-2011, 10:30 PM
5. Impressed with Tampa Bay Downs - great betting fields, pretty good racing. Every race has full fields. Compared to Aqueduct, Fair Grounds and Santa Anita, Tampa Bay knows how to card its races and get full fieldsTampa Bay does a good job with getting full fields. But they have a lot of races with only really bad horses. The first race today was a prime example. It was imposable to find a horse in it that you could bet with any confidence. Somehow the public found a horse to make a 9/5 favorite and it won. Those kind of races are pretty common there.
They are getting a lot off out of state money being wagered there. I don't know what their cut of that is, but I suspect it isn't much.