Saturday Beyers

[cj]

Uncle Mo 89
Tackleberry 103

I'll add more as I find them.

[raybo]

Yeah, I just looked at the replay of the 8th at GP. That wasn't a race, it was a workout.

[cj]

Premier Pegasus, 96
Miss Match, 96

[classhandicapper]

The extremely slow pace almost certainly had a huge negative impact on Uncle Mo's final time.

The funny thing is that if this was some random NW1 winner instead of Uncle Mo, some people would be saying the horse wired a weak field off a very slow pace and hadn't done anything to demonstrate it could run a lot faster under quality pressure. The even funnier thing is that a lot of the time they would be right.

All that said, I've seen a lot of precocious 2YOs that didn't develop much if at all at 3, but I haven't seem many that got worse at 3 unless there were physical problems. As far as I know, Uncle Mo is totally sound. So I think it's safe to assume Uncle Mo had an absolute ton in reserve and can be viewed in light of his 2YO campaign.

I'm not so sure I like this preparation though. This is not some seasoned older horse that just needs a single tuneup race to get to 100%. These are early year 3YOs with a limited foundation for going long distances under extremely competitive conditions like the Derby. I don't see how this race did any more for him than a 1 mile workout in company. I think the best thing that could happen from here is a tougher race (not killer but tough) in the Wood or Florida derby to set him up better.

[Beachbabe]

The extremely slow pace almost certainly had a huge negative impact on Uncle Mo's final time.

The funny thing is that if this was some random NW1 winner instead of Uncle Mo, some people would be saying the horse wired a weak field off a very slow pace and hadn't done anything to demonstrate it could run a lot faster under quality pressure. The even funnier thing is that a lot of the time they would be right.

All that said, I've seen a lot of precocious 2YOs that didn't develop much if at all at 3, but I haven't seem many that got worse at 3 unless there were physical problems. As far as I know, Uncle Mo is totally sound. So I think it's safe to assume Uncle Mo had an absolute ton in reserve and can be viewed in light of his 2YO campaign.

I'm not so sure I like this preparation though. This is not some seasoned older horse that just needs a single tuneup race to get to 100%. These are early year 3YOs with a limited foundation for going long distances under extremely competitive conditions like the Derby. I don't see how this race did any more for him than a 1 mile workout in company. I think the best thing that could happen from here is a tougher race (not killer but tough) in the Wood or Florida derby to set him up better.


Agree !!
Though I don't see anything else that has stepped up and stamped themselves as a legitimate contender.

[RXB]

As far as I know, Uncle Mo is totally sound. So I think it's safe to assume Uncle Mo had an absolute ton in reserve and can be viewed in light of his 2YO campaign.

I'm not so sure I like this preparation though. This is not some seasoned older horse that just needs a single tuneup race to get to 100%. These are early year 3YOs with a limited foundation for going long distances under extremely competitive conditions like the Derby. I don't see how this race did any more for him than a 1 mile workout in company. I think the best thing that could happen from here is a tougher race (not killer but tough) in the Wood or Florida derby to set him up better.

Totally agree.

I hope he gets another relatively easy-paced win in the Wood, but hopefully with a fairly large Beyer figure this time, and then he will be perfectly set up to lose in the Derby at skimpy odds.

[Tom]

I saw nothing that impressed me.

I saw nothing close to a quality race. And now he has one shot left to get ready, in which he must beat better and stretch out to two turns. I hope he is the Derby favorite.

[raybo]

I saw nothing that impressed me.

I saw nothing close to a quality race. And now he has one shot left to get ready, in which he must beat better and stretch out to two turns. I hope he is the Derby favorite.

What I saw in that race was that the 1 rushed up quickly to take the lead and then hit the brakes immediately. The next quarter looked like they were running in slow motion. Mo never exerted anything close to what he could have until the 6 tried to overtake him, Then he put him away easily and then coasted home.

The horse had all kinds of energy left, but didn't need to use it.

Just my take on the replay.

Just a decent workout for him.

[gm10]

I was impressed by Mo. He probably was only 85% and the speed figure isn't special but he still looked like a bundle of raw talent.

I have a very good figure for Premier Pegasus, but his final split was slightly disappointing.

[PhantomOnTour]

So which prep will see a colt or filly finally hit the 100 Beyer barrier?

Arkansas Derby?
Wood Mem?
Florida Derby?
Santa Anita Derby?
Louisiana Derby?
Blue Grass?
Illinois Derby?

Your guess is as good as mine...step right up and take your pick.

[Doza]

So which prep will see a colt or filly finally hit the 100 Beyer barrier?

Arkansas Derby?
Wood Mem?
Florida Derby?
Santa Anita Derby?
Louisiana Derby?
Blue Grass?
Illinois Derby?

Your guess is as good as mine...step right up and take your pick.

The San Vicente?

Although I'm sure you mean two turn preps.

[gm10]

Uncle Mo came home in 17.7 meter/sec.
That is extremely impressive, usually only seen on the turf.

[PaceAdvantage]

Uncle Mo came home in 17.7 meter/sec.meter/sec? You do realize this website is based in the USA...we dumb asses don't do metric... :lol:

[gm10]

meter/sec? You do realize this website is based in the USA...we dumb asses don't do metric... :lol:

they don't do meters in the UK either, you know

convert it into feet if you wish

[gm10]

meter/sec? You do realize this website is based in the USA...we dumb asses don't do metric... :lol:

the reason why I like meters/second is because 0.1 m/sec is approximately 1 length over 2 furlongs

for example, Radiohead went 17.1 last year
that means a difference of 0.6 m/s with Mo, in other words Mo was 6 lengths faster than Radiohead over the final 2f

[PaceAdvantage]

Uncle Mo came home in 17.7 meter/sec.
That is extremely impressive, usually only seen on the turf.58.07 feet/sec...

[Cratos]

Uncle Mo came home in 17.7 meter/sec.
That is extremely impressive, usually only seen on the turf.

He was "smoking" at a brisk 39.584 mph and this is equilavent of a horse running a mile (The Timely Writer distance) in approximately 1:31 seconds.

[cj]

The race was obviously nothing but a workout. Since he did no running at all for the first 1/2 mile, and only a little from the 1/2 to 3/4, I would certainly expect him to fly home.

[The Hawk]

The race was obviously nothing but a workout. Since he did no running at all for the first 1/2 mile, and only a little from the 1/2 to 3/4, I would certainly expect him to fly home.

Not only that but we don't even know if the times are correct.

[gm10]

The race was obviously nothing but a workout. Since he did no running at all for the first 1/2 mile, and only a little from the 1/2 to 3/4, I would certainly expect him to fly home.

Maybe it was a workout by his standards, but his speed rating was decent enough to gain some sort of insight into his ability as a 3yo (imo).
I can honestly say I have never seen this kind of late speed before on the dirt.

[raybo]

I've seen allowance horses run the final fraction in 58 ft/sec, so, I'm not that impressed, I would be impressed at 60 ft/sec..

You have to remember that he had just accelerated to ward off the 6, which means when the final fraction started he was already under full steam, allowing him to coast home and still get 58 Ft/sec in the final fraction.

[gm10]

Not only that but we don't even know if the times are correct.

That is definitely a worry.

[gm10]

I've seen allowance horses run the final fraction in 58 ft/sec, so, I'm not that impressed, I would be impressed at 60 ft/sec..

You have to remember that he had just accelerated to ward off the 6, which means when the final fraction started he was already under full steam, allowing him to coast home and still get 58 Ft/sec in the final fraction.

Which allowance horse?? I've got nothing close to that (over a mile on dirt).

[onefast99]

I saw nothing that impressed me.

I saw nothing close to a quality race. And now he has one shot left to get ready, in which he must beat better and stretch out to two turns. I hope he is the Derby favorite.
If he wins you can say it was a combination of Repoles Pirates Booty and Vitamin water, if he loses it was a combination of Pirates Booty and Vitamin Water. Good for Mikey he deserves a few wins this is a costly game and he has spent a lot. Stay Thirsty everyone! http://freeemoticonsandsmileys.com/3D%20Smileys/3D%20Funny%20Smileys/more%20crackers.gif

[Valuist]

Uncle Mo did NOT impress me in the least. If you are that good and your opponents are that bad, and you CRAWL that slowly early, you'd better come home extremely fast.

Guys like Baffert, Lukas and Zito wouldn't have run this horse in a joke public workout like this. They know you get your horse ready thru HARD preps, not coddling them. What's Pletcher's Derby record now, 1 for 25 or 30?

[Tom]

Unless he intends to make a run from off the pace in the Derby, that 3rd fraction is meaningless. If he has to step it up early, he will never come close to that.

But hey, I said War Emblem would be last by 30 lengths! :D

[raybo]

Unless he intends to make a run from off the pace in the Derby, that 3rd fraction is meaningless. If he has to step it up early, he will never come close to that.

But hey, I said War Emblem would be last by 30 lengths! :D

I think the whole race was meaningless. It told us nothing of what Mo is capable of. He did not extend himself early so we don't know if he can finish strong, if he has to run early.

[appistappis]

Totally agree.

I hope he gets another relatively easy-paced win in the Wood, but hopefully with a fairly large Beyer figure this time, and then he will be perfectly set up to lose in the Derby at skimpy odds.


lol, how true.

[maddog42]

I think the whole race was meaningless. It told us nothing of what Mo is capable of. He did not extend himself early so we don't know if he can finish strong, if he has to run early.

While I agree we don't know how much a fast pace will affect him, let me tell you just how fast that 3rd fraction was. It was a 22.87. The Par for gulfstream
is 26.14. That means his percentage of Par was .874. That is the lowest percentage of Par on Dirt that I have seen in about 1 year against ANY pace. And It was done by a young 3 year old in March.
Remember what Quirin said about how much 3 years old improve? I thought this board was called Pace Advantage? You are right Raybo, A faster early pace will slow him down, but he can afford to speed up about 10 lengths and still come home fast. This Horse has a pace advantage.
I am not saying he will win the Derby, but he can run.

[CBedo]

My take is that you don't know anything more about Mo after the race than you did before (except confirming that he seems to be healthy & sound). However fast he ran late was meaningless since he wasn't running at all early.

Think of it this way. Let's say that someone runs the 100 yard dash in 12 seconds (mine would be more like 12 minutes), but if they run a mile with a "normal" pace, the last 100 yards would obviously not be any where close to 12 seconds. Now change the pace dramatically. Instead of normal, walk the first 1660 yards and run the last 100, SHAZAAM!--12 seconds coming home in a very slow total time, telling you nothing about his overall mile ability.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think too much is being made of this race and of his schedule overall. If Mo were the only horse being coddled, it might be a huge factor. But in this day and age, they're all basically lightly raced and coddled...

If he gets a decent test in his next race (Wood Memorial/Florida Derby), will he really be that far behind the rest of the Derby field in terms of "seasoning?"

Let's get real here for a minute...

[classhandicapper]

If he gets a decent test in his next race (Wood Memorial/Florida Derby), will he really be that far behind the rest of the Derby field in terms of "seasoning?"



I think that might be a key point.

I know there's been all sorts of "rules" for winning the Derby that didn't stand the test of time, but most of them never made any sense to me to begin with.

I think when we are taking about getting 3YOs ready to run an extremely competitive 10F in the spring, it's probably a good idea to have few 2 turn routes and at least 1 or 2 reasonably tough races under their belt to get the proper conditioning and experience.

I had no problem with his 2YO campaign, but if he has another walk in the park in the Wood I'm not going to feel so great about his chances if he has to earn the lead in the Derby, multiple horses are taking pot shots at him on the turn, and then he has to run an extra 1/8th with fresher horses coming at him.

I never really worry about this stuff with older horses. IMO once they are battled tested and have stretched out etc.., it usually only takes 1 prep race to get them all the way back. But so many young horses have trouble with the 10F (some eventually can get it later in their development), it worries me.

[MNslappy]

Does it remind anyone else of the way Todd handled (maybe mishandled) Dunkirk a few years ago going into the Derby?

And, does anyone think it possible that they're thinking far ahead about saving enough horse for the third leg of the TC? If they can win the Derby, the Preakness seems right in Mo's wheelhouse....just sayin. Maybe that's ridiculous, I don't know.

[Linny]

Mile times at GP are always skewed because of the near standing start. Most races are times using a run-up, at GP the timer starts about 10 feet out of the gate. The first fraction is always very slow as they horses have not reached their maximum cruising speed until about 40 ft into the race.
By contrast 9f races at GP have an 80ft run-up.

I agree that since they are all coddled that Mo won't be any more or less conditioned than the rest. I don't like horses in the Derby who have never run a hard race. I don't care of they win or lose but I like to see a colt show me that he's willing to engage in a dogfight. Sure the Seattle Slews of the world win everything easily then have to bully through in the Derby and get it done but Slews are few and far between.

[raybo]

While I agree we don't know how much a fast pace will affect him, let me tell you just how fast that 3rd fraction was. It was a 22.87. The Par for gulfstream
is 26.14. That means his percentage of Par was .874. That is the lowest percentage of Par on Dirt that I have seen in about 1 year against ANY pace. And It was done by a young 3 year old in March.
Remember what Quirin said about how much 3 years old improve? I thought this board was called Pace Advantage? You are right Raybo, A faster early pace will slow him down, but he can afford to speed up about 10 lengths and still come home fast. This Horse has a pace advantage.
I am not saying he will win the Derby, but he can run.

Not having the pars for GP, this certainly seems impressive.

I'll withhold my decision on the quality of Mo until he has been truly tested.

Funny things happen to horses, and humans, when they find themselves in a competition where they are up against other competitors at, or above, their own class. Liken it to an athlete moving from high school to college, or college to the pros.

Let's see what he can do in tougher fields, where there will certainly be speed burners and very strong closers.

[rastajenk]

And, does anyone think it possible that they're thinking far ahead about saving enough horse for the third leg of the TC? If they can win the Derby, the Preakness seems right in Mo's wheelhouse....just sayin. Maybe that's ridiculous, I don't know.I suggested this in another Mo thread. It may take a supreme level of confidence to plan this way...arrogance may be a less charitable way of putting it... but if there's an absence of any other quickly improving 3yo's, why not?

If more and more people keep knocking his schedule, pretty soon it will become the conventional wisdom. That makes those that stick with him the new "wise guys." :confused: ;) :p

[maddog42]

Not having the pars for GP, this certainly seems impressive.

I'll withhold my decision on the quality of Mo until he has been truly tested.

Funny things happen to horses, and humans, when they find themselves in a competition where they are up against other competitors at, or above, their own class. Liken it to an athlete moving from high school to college, or college to the pros.

Let's see what he can do in tougher fields, where there will certainly be speed burners and very strong closers.

A better handicapper than me from Tulsa who wore a hat once told me that for every 1/5 a horse has to run early it will cost him 2/5 on the back end. I may disagree with how much it costs on the backend, but that is essentially correct. Will Mo have enough ? I don't know.
He was correct and so are you.

[Pell Mell]

I think too much is being made of this race and of his schedule overall. If Mo were the only horse being coddled, it might be a huge factor. But in this day and age, they're all basically lightly raced and coddled...

If he gets a decent test in his next race (Wood Memorial/Florida Derby), will he really be that far behind the rest of the Derby field in terms of "seasoning?"

Let's get real here for a minute...

Not being biased either way with MO, the reality is, he may never be tested. Don't forget, nobody's been close to him yet. Just suppose he's that good :faint:

[fmolf]

Not being biased either way with MO, the reality is, he may never be tested. Don't forget, nobody's been close to him yet. Just suppose he's that good :faint:
If he's that good why wouldn't they put him in a race with other quality 3yr olds?Last time i checked the derby was still a 20 horse field ...right?

[Pell Mell]

If he's that good why wouldn't they put him in a race with other quality 3yr olds?Last time i checked the derby was still a 20 horse field ...right?

I didn't say he was that good, I said SUPPOSE he is that good. And, just speculation on my part but where were they going to run him? It seems to me that Pletcher was in somewhat of a dither being that he has three horses in MO, THIRSTY and BRETHREN and sure didn't want to run them against each other.

I suppose he could have sent one of them to OP or the FG but I don't believe he wants to leave FL or NY with them right now.

[Robert Fischer]

I can honestly say I have never seen this kind of late speed before on the dirt.

Admittedly I'm in an antisocial mood, but unless you are giving a lot of credit for the often elusive "more in reserve" "clause", this has me mumbling obscenities at the screen.

according to the chart Mo came home in 22.87, and Rattlesnake came home in 23.19 and Schoolyard Cat came home in 23.41.

was Mo's late speed really a once in a lifetime type of deal?
what does that make the also rans?

A case can be made for Rattlesnake(who is now 2/2 in running pretty good) finding a niche and earning some decent money. At the same time Schoolyard Cat is no guarantee to ever be competitive at the stakes level.

[Cratos]

Uncle Mo is a very good horse and having run and won over 4 different track surfaces without losing a step makes him a very special horse.

He proved in the Juvenile that he could negotiate two turns and the only thing left is whether he can get the 1 ¼ mile distance and if he does there will be many nay Sayers climbing aboard his bandwagon.

[Fastracehorse]

Uncle Mo is a very good horse and having run and won over 4 different track surfaces without losing a step makes him a very special horse.

He proved in the Juvenile that he could negotiate two turns and the only thing left is whether he can get the 1 ¼ mile distance and if he does there will be many nay Sayers climbing aboard his bandwagon.

.......and one thing to remember: this horse was freakish in all 2 yo starts - nobody COULD test him; that's important to note.

His first 3yo start was awesome because it was an exercise in professionalism.

fffastt

[Valuist]

Uncle Mo reminds me a bit of Devils Bag. But when Devils Bag did get challenged in the Flamingo, he wasn't up to it. I can see Uncle Mo getting challenged and bringing down a ton of money with him. Yes I know Pletcher finally won the Derby last year but it was a BAD bunch and a sloppy track. Big Brown maybe wasn't challenged in his preps but at least he ran fast. Just don't know how much Uncle Mo could've gotten out of the race last weekend. I am not a believer in coddling horses to get them ready for CD.

[Irish Boy]

They're not just prepping him for one race in May. They're prepping him for two races in May and one in June.

[raybo]

I'm not concerned with his preparation for future races, just wondering if he really has what it will take to compete against world class competition, I certainly didn't get an answer to that question in this past race.

That doesn't mean that I believe he doesn't "have it", but it wasn't displayed, that's all I'm saying.

[Tom]

Uncle Mo reminds me a bit of Devils Bag. But when Devils Bag did get challenged in the Flamingo, he wasn't up to it.

Exactly who I was thinking of.

[rastajenk]

I'm not concerned with his preparation for future races, just wondering if he really has what it will take to compete against world class competition...Where would that be coming from? The world class competition, that is.

[cj]

What does everyone think about Premier Pegasus? His 96 seems ok. I gave him a 94, but the pace was very fast. There have been three preps run this year with very fast paces (@110 to the 6f), and all three have been in SoCal.

[classhandicapper]

One difference between Uncle Mo and Devil's bag is that IMO Uncle Mo was more tested in the Juvenile than Devil's Bag was in the Champagne. He rated, they took some pot shots at him on the turn, and he drew off anyway.

But I think the real issue is not how good Devil's Bag was. IMO he WAS a great 2YO. He just didn't develop. The issue is that we still don't know if Uncle Mo has developed. He hasn't been tested this year.

[classhandicapper]

What does everyone think about Premier Pegasus? His 96 seems ok. I gave him a 94, but the pace was very fast. There have been three preps run this year with very fast paces (@110 to the 6f), and all three have been in SoCal.

There are a handful of remaining preps and it wouldn't shock me if a couple of horses took a big step forward next time out. None of the trainers have been trying to get their horses to peak yet.

[gm10]

Admittedly I'm in an antisocial mood, but unless you are giving a lot of credit for the often elusive "more in reserve" "clause", this has me mumbling obscenities at the screen.

according to the chart Mo came home in 22.87, and Rattlesnake came home in 23.19 and Schoolyard Cat came home in 23.41.

was Mo's late speed really a once in a lifetime type of deal?
what does that make the also rans?

A case can be made for Rattlesnake(who is now 2/2 in running pretty good) finding a niche and earning some decent money. At the same time Schoolyard Cat is no guarantee to ever be competitive at the stakes level.

I think you're right. Some of these horses ran too fast late to be true.

(Not that I have any doubts about Mo)

[GatetoWire]

What does everyone think about Premier Pegasus? His 96 seems ok. I gave him a 94, but the pace was very fast. There have been three preps run this year with very fast paces (@110 to the 6f), and all three have been in SoCal.

I think he could turn into a major player going forward.
Yes, the pace was fast and it set up the effort, but I like the way he has been prepped. Several sprints, blinkers off, good works and a route
With his breeding he should not have trouble with the distance and I thought that he looked great physically before and after the race.
After the gallop out he turned, bowed his neck and looked like he was ready to go again.
The other thing I like about PP is his tactical speed. He seems like he can go with the flow and be in the right spot no matter what the fractions are.
This could serve him very well in the Derby.

[Pell Mell]

What does everyone think about Premier Pegasus? His 96 seems ok. I gave him a 94, but the pace was very fast. There have been three preps run this year with very fast paces (@110 to the 6f), and all three have been in SoCal.

CJ, I mentioned something to that effect in another thread. We don't have a clue yet how the horses from those races are going to respond on another track. I think we may get an inkling after the Rebel with THE FACTOR in there.

As far as PP, I think that last race completely fell apart up front and he was in the right spot to take advantage of it. Seems to me that Jaycito was left with too much to do by being so far back early. Another point is the SV race won by THE FACTOR. The fractions were crazy and he goes the second 1/4 faster than the first, and after setting that pace, he was able to turn back PP after being hooked at the top of the stretch.

I'm very anxious to see how all that plays out in the Rebel

[Tom]

What does everyone think about Premier Pegasus? His 96 seems ok. I gave him a 94, but the pace was very fast. There have been three preps run this year with very fast paces (@110 to the 6f), and all three have been in SoCal.

He and Soldat are the only two I am really looking at right now.
He handles the pace and he handles the stretch out....I think he will improving more than most, while most still have improve to get to where he is now.

[maddog42]

What does everyone think about Premier Pegasus? His 96 seems ok. I gave him a 94, but the pace was very fast. There have been three preps run this year with very fast paces (@110 to the 6f), and all three have been in SoCal.

I thought I would list most of the major KD hopefuls (so far) their PPF pars and the pace they ran against in routes. Remember PPf pars are not true 3rd fraction pars but bastardized pace of race 3rd fraction pars where you are penalized lengths behind at 2nd call. Lower is better.

Uncle Mo 874 pace 73.69 and 920 70.47 and 971 71.92
Mucho Macho Man 917 73.65 and 976 70.33 and 1001 71.18
Soldat 955 72.13 and 973 72.43
Dialed In 960 73.89 and 951 70.33
Premier Pegasus 1026 68.98 wow fast pace!
Brethren 974 71.79 and 969 72.6 and 962 73.16
Jaycito 1064 68.98 and 981 73.08
Many of the KD hopefuls have not run at a mile or more. Notice the See-saw
fulcrum effect when pace gets faster PPF gets higher. This is quite common to pace handicappers. To tell you the truth these PPF Par numbers aren"t that good above 9 furlongs, but i still did pretty good at Breeders Cup. I did not use the 7 furlong races like I would in my normal handicapping, because they also don't translate without special adjustments.
Premier Pegasus ran such a fast Pace that I wouldn't put much stock in his lousy PPF. These are the kind of horses that beat me, especially if the ESP matchup is favorable.I believe that true 3rd fractions are a little more predictive about stretch outs than PPF numbers.
Sorry about the 2nd call decimal times. Old habits die hard.
The 874 that Mo ran is a little suspicious, but I think It is legit. Other PPF numbers ran that same day are in line with Pars and not much faster than normal. imo that 920 70.47 would beat these other horses.
Quirin said that 3 year olds often improve 9 fifths during the course of the year, and he laid out a calendar to adjust these horses. something Like a 3/5 improvement from Jan 1 to May 1. He was certainly correct for an average horse, but these Super 3year-olds sometimes get 5 lengths better overnight.
And they can get 10 lengths slower overnight too.
That is why older horses are easier to handicap and why the derby is so hard to predict.
These figures are raw and not daily variant adjusted, They have a built in track to track par adjustment.

[Fastracehorse]

CJ, I mentioned something to that effect in another thread. We don't have a clue yet how the horses from those races are going to respond on another track. I think we may get an inkling after the Rebel with THE FACTOR in there.

As far as PP, I think that last race completely fell apart up front and he was in the right spot to take advantage of it. Seems to me that Jaycito was left with too much to do by being so far back early. Another point is the SV race won by THE FACTOR. The fractions were crazy and he goes the second 1/4 faster than the first, and after setting that pace, he was able to turn back PP after being hooked at the top of the stretch.

I'm very anxious to see how all that plays out in the Rebel

.............is just too dang fast; his style doesn't bode well for Classic distances - no effort to rate his last start.

fffastt

[maddog42]

I thought I would list most of the major KD hopefuls (so far) their PPF pars and the pace they ran against in routes. Remember PPf pars are not true 3rd fraction pars but bastardized pace of race 3rd fraction pars where you are penalized lengths behind at 2nd call. Lower is better.

Uncle Mo 874 pace 73.69 and 920 70.47 and 971 71.92
Mucho Macho Man 917 73.65 and 976 70.33 and 1001 71.18
Soldat 955 72.13 and 973 72.43
Dialed In 960 73.89 and 951 70.33
Premier Pegasus 1026 68.98 wow fast pace!
Brethren 974 71.79 and 969 72.6 and 962 73.16
Jaycito 1064 68.98 and 981 73.08
Many of the KD hopefuls have not run at a mile or more. Notice the See-saw
fulcrum effect when pace gets faster PPF gets higher. This is quite common to pace handicappers. To tell you the truth these PPF Par numbers aren"t that good above 9 furlongs, but i still did pretty good at Breeders Cup. I did not use the 7 furlong races like I would in my normal handicapping, because they also don't translate without special adjustments.
Premier Pegasus ran such a fast Pace that I wouldn't put much stock in his lousy PPF. These are the kind of horses that beat me, especially if the ESP matchup is favorable.I believe that true 3rd fractions are a little more predictive about stretch outs than PPF numbers.
Sorry about the 2nd call decimal times. Old habits die hard.
The 874 that Mo ran is a little suspicious, but I think It is legit. Other PPF numbers ran that same day are in line with Pars and not much faster than normal. imo that 920 70.47 would beat these other horses.
Quirin said that 3 year olds often improve 9 fifths during the course of the year, and he laid out a calendar to adjust these horses. something Like a 3/5 improvement from Jan 1 to May 1. He was certainly correct for an average horse, but these Super 3year-olds sometimes get 5 lengths better overnight.
And they can get 10 lengths slower overnight too.
That is why older horses are easier to handicap and why the derby is so hard to predict.
These figures are raw and not daily variant adjusted, They have a built in track to track par adjustment.

What horses that have run 8f or longer am I leaving out?

[Cratos]

I wasn’t much of an Uncle Mo fan until his Juvenile and having watched a 2yo at the time demonstrate the professionalism of an older horse; I became a fan.

In all due respect to speed figure handicappers, the speed figure will tell you little or nothing about Uncle Mo’s or any other horse future potential.

We as horseplayers and fans should be hoping that Uncle Mo or some other horse rise to the top of the “heap” and become a “rock star” because this sport is in dire need of being on the sports front page.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I wasn’t much of an Uncle Mo fan until his Juvenile and having watched a 2yo at the time demonstrate the professionalism of an older horse; I became a fan.

In all due respect to speed figure handicappers, the speed figure will tell you little or nothing about Uncle Mo’s or any other horse future potential.

We as horseplayers and fans should be hoping that Uncle Mo or some other horse rise to the top of the “heap” and become a “rock star” because this sport is in dire need of being on the sports front page.

I'm not going to get into a Beyer debate with you again (we've covered that), but I disagree with your statement. So let's go at this differently. Would you be willing to say the following: the time a horse (Derby-contender) has run will tell you little or nothing about the horse's future potential?

We do need a star - I totally agree with you on that point.

[Cratos]

I'm not going to get into a Beyer debate with you again (we've covered that), but I disagree with your statement. So let's go at this differently. Would you be willing to say the following: the time a horse (Derby-contender) has run will tell you little or nothing about the horse's future potential?

We do need a star - I totally agree with you on that point.

First of all, I didn’t mentioned Beyers at all. I spoke to the general concept of speed figures regardless of their originator.

Secondly, final times of any race and speed figures are not the same metrics. Final time is a recorded metric determined when the horse crosses the finish line stopping the timer. A speed figure is a metric based on final time, but includes other adjustments by its developer.

To answer your question directly I do believe the final times which a Derby contender has run prior to the Derby will give you some indication of its ability, but that is not the same as saying speed figures will do the likewise as explained earlier in this post.

[Saratoga_Mike]

First of all, I didn’t mentioned Beyers at all. I spoke to the general concept of speed figures regardless of their originator.

Secondly, final times of any race and speed figures are not the same metrics. Final time is a recorded metric determined when the horse crosses the finish line stopping the timer. A speed figure is a metric based on final time, but includes other adjustments by its developer.

To answer your question directly I do believe the final times which a Derby contender has run prior to the Derby will give you some indication of its ability, but that is not the same as saying speed figures will do the likewise as explained earlier in this post.

To me, a Beyer is a speed figure. I might sometimes refer to a tissue as a Kleenex, but it might really be a generic brand tissue. Same thing, unless one wants to be pedantic.

So you think an unadjusted final time is more predictive than a speed figure (I would use a Beyer)? I draw this inference from the bolded statement above, as it is stronger than your statement about the predictive value of Beyers, sorry speed figures.

[Cratos]

To me, a Beyer is a speed figure. I might sometimes refer to a tissue as a Kleenex, but it might really be a generic brand tissue. Same thing, unless one wants to be pedantic.

So you think an unadjusted final time is more predictive than a speed figure (I would use a Beyer)? I draw this inference from the bolded statement above, as it is stronger than your statement about the predictive value of Beyers, sorry speed figures.

I get your tissue analogy, but it is not the specificity to my earlier assertion.

Furthermore I didn’t say nor did I infer that “an unadjusted final time is more predictive than a speed figure.” I didn’t make any postulation about the probabilistic application of either the final time or the speed figure.

What I did was giving a direct response to your question and explained the difference between the two as I understand.

For future reference I will understand that your synonym for speed figures is Beyers

[Saratoga_Mike]

I get your tissue analogy, but it is not the specificity to my earlier assertion.

Furthermore I didn’t say nor did I infer that “an unadjusted final time is more predictive than a speed figure.” I didn’t make any postulation about the probabilistic application of either the final time or the speed figure.

What I did was giving a direct response to your question and explained the difference between the two as I understand.

For future reference I will understand that your synonym for speed figures is Beyers

Here the two statements you made (labeled a and b):

a) The speed figure will tell you little or nothing about Uncle Mo’s or any other horse future potential.

b) I do believe the final times which a Derby contender has run prior to the Derby will give you some indication of its ability

From those two statements, I inferred that you believe final times have more predictive value than speed figures for Derby contenders. To me, "some indication of ability" is a stronger statement than telling one "little or nothing." How is my inference incorrect? I never said you inferred anything, but you certainly implied something.

Thank you for indulging me on my usage of the term Beyer.

[rastajenk]

I'm still waiting for some candidates for this "world class" competition that raybo mentioned a few days ago. While I am certainly aware that some 3-yo's can develop rapidly in the spring, I also know that in any given year, most Derby contenders at this point on the Trail do not turn into world class runners; they are merely the best in a certain region until further notice.

I'm getting the bad feeling that if Mo doesn't pan out, we might get another Giacomo kind of winner....one who can "get the distance," just not very quickly.

[PhantomOnTour]

Since Beyers were introduced in the DRF(1992?) every Derby winner except Sea Hero and Street Sense has improved upon their best 2yo fig before the Derby.
Statistically speaking, Uncle Mo should run a huge race in his next outing and approach the 108 BSF he got in the BC Juv.
And if he doesn't.....

[Tom]

Since Beyers were introduced in the DRF(1992?) every Derby winner except Sea Hero and Street Sense has improved upon their best 2yo fig before the Derby.


That is good news for a few this year - should be easy to beat those dismal numbers! :rolleyes:

[SmartyLane]

Back a few pages were some Pletcher comments.

I am not fan let me say that first but in '09 when Dunkirk was around and the Pletcher talk was going I did a little research into it.

I can't remember the horse, but prior to the '09 Derby Pletcher only had one horse that was 10-1 or less. Now I am not 100% sure, but I think that horse was ITM. So yeah you can say he is is Derby cursed, but he has never had a Derby horse that was even in the top 5 probably in terms of odds, until last year with Super Saver who was in that top 5.

As for Dunkirks campaign, his first start was not until late January if memory serves me correct.

Again, not a fan, just stating some interesting info.