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View Full Version : BETA RC (thoroughbred Report Card)


douglasw32
03-10-2011, 11:15 PM
Simple scratch sheet, nothing fancy.
http://localpcpros.com/handifast/
The one called RC.sfx.exe
I recycled an old handifast GUI

Download it.
Click Run
Browse to where you want it to unzip
extract it.
Start it by clicking on RC.exe
Run the two support files if it does not work, in the folder "Support Files"
(if you do it adds a shortcut to the desktop "test your computer speed", just delete it, after you run them if you even need to you can delete the folder.
Should be self explanatory from there.

All I ask is some posts on how it works at different tracks, distances, surface, etc.

I don't have the time to run major testing. but it is all I have been using for a while now.

douglasw32
03-10-2011, 11:21 PM
P.S.

RC.exe and the folder BIN, is all that needs to be anywhere, even a usb stick, as long as they stay in the same folder all is good.
You can browse anywhere for the unzip of the bris $1.00 single file format data file.

Ghostrider5
03-11-2011, 12:26 AM
Could you explain what the numbers in black mean on the thoughbred report card?


ghostrider5

Handiman
03-11-2011, 01:55 AM
Hey Doug,

Here's how things went at Golden Gate today.


1.....4.20
2.....2nd......3.60
3.....4th
4.....6th
5.....2nd......3.00
6.....4th
7.....6.00
8.....5.60

Thought I'd post this for you per your request.

Handi:)

dartman51
03-11-2011, 10:47 AM
CT 2011-03-10
__________________________________________________ ________
Race #1 for 4 & 5 Year Olds , Md 5000, going 4.5f, on Dirt
================================================== ========
147 (05) CARSON'S STAR HAT SHOW
060 (07) THOUGHITWUZABOY WIN $13.60
052 (04) LOGAN'S LOVE
020 (06) LADY BOP PLACE
...... (03) TRIDY'S HUTCH

__________________________________________________ _____________
Race #2 for 4 Year Olds And Up,Clm 5000n2x, going 9.0f, on Dirt
================================================== =============
359 (02) COLLEEN'S CHARM
321 (01) BELLA COLES WIN $ 4.60
182 (04) FLOSSIE M. SHOW
134 (07) MADDYABOUTYOU
093 (08) DEGRACIA
075 (05) WOO WOO ANN
043 (10) ALADRA PLACE
034 (06) GIRLING

__________________________________________________ ____
Race #3 for 3 Year Olds , Md 5000, going 4.5f, on Dirt
================================================== ====
363 (05) LIVINGONAPRAYER SHOW
229 (10) FREE HUMOR WIN $12.20
175 (03) CLOSER TO PEACE
132 (06) TEACHEM OUTLAW
114 (09) ALFIE'S SONG
051 (04) CAT TACTICS
...... (02) MILLWOOD PLACE
...... (08) PUNCH ON THE ROCKS

__________________________________________________ ______________
Race #4 for 4 Year Olds And Up, Clm 5000n2l, going 6.5f, on Dirt
================================================== ==============
373 (07) BIG ROUGE PLACE
348 (09) DAPPER DANE
258 (01) LORD PARKER
191 (08) DR. SPOCK WIN $ 9.20
172 (06) MAKINUSFAMOUS SHOW
168 (05) STARCASM
152 (02) HOTEL SIERRA
090 (04) ARSIERO
080 (10) POSITIVELY MACHO
065 (03) REBEL BOY

__________________________________________________ ______________
Race #5 for 4 Year Olds And Up, Clm 5000n2y, going 7.0f, on Dirt
================================================== ==============
636 (07) SHAMSS PLACE
561 (01) ONLY BY INVITATION
521 (08) IJADA'S RUN
520 (10) TERRIFIC TOM
458 (05) LOVE TOUR SHOW
453 (04) COASTAL DRIVE WIN $13.00
450 (06) ANOTHER VOW
357 (02) BALRAJ

__________________________________________________ _____
Race #6 for 3 Year Olds , Md Sp Wt, going 4.5f, on Dirt
================================================== =====
417 (07) SECONDTIMELOVE WIN $ 6.40
249 (06) WILD MOCHA
206 (09) HEIR DE VYE PLACE
FTS (03) BRASH ALEXANDRA
FTS (08) JUSTICE DENIED SHOW

__________________________________________________ _________
Race #7 for 3 Year Olds , Clm 16000n3x, going 6.5f, on Dirt
================================================== =========
551 (03) TIMBER WEST
361 (01) WILD MAMBO
357 (02) CANCEL THESHOW
354 (08) GOOD TO SEE YOU
286 (07) NO BOND PER JUDGE WIN $45.20
201 (05) MAN FROM HOPE SHOW
094 (06) CLASSY SCAMP PLACE

__________________________________________________ ________________
Race #8 for 4 Year Olds And Up, OClm 12500n1x, going 6.5f, on Dirt
================================================== ================
686 (08) PRINCESS MALKA WIN $ 7.00
520 (07) SWISH MARAVICH
463 (04) YOU KNOW I WANCHA PLACE
393 (01) SKY CAN FLY SHOW
371 (05) PROSECCA
282 (09) COLORMINE BLUE

__________________________________________________ ______________
Race #9 for 4 Year Olds And Up, Clm 5000n2x, going 4.5f, on Dirt
================================================== ==============
383 (03) CAPE SABLE WIN $ 3.40
351 (02) OSCAR THE MAYOR
331 (04) EIGHT GOLD MEDALS SHOW
325 (06) LEON'S WAY
295 (01) JOE THE PLUMBER PLACE
267 (05) REBEL CHALLENGER
256 (09) ODDBALL
121 (08) ROBB TRADD


© 2008 Equibase Company LLC. All Rights Reserved. Software © 2008 Douglas Wood

fight
03-11-2011, 11:12 AM
having trouble scratching. if i donot sc is the selection order still the same? or sc changes the points order. ty

dartman51
03-11-2011, 11:40 AM
having trouble scratching. if i donot sc is the selection order still the same? or sc changes the points order. ty

The selections come out in program # or post order. I changed the order to put them highest to lowest.

To scratch, click on the SCRATCHES ? button. You need a BRIS account. Then highlight the last section of scratches to make sure you have the latest. Then right click and copy. Then click on the SCRATCHES button and a NOTEPAD will pop up. Paste what you copied to the notepad. Then you have to delete all the race #'s and put the horses in SINGLE FILE order. Clean up the names. Remove any COUNTRY designations ie: (ARG) SEE BELOW. Once you have done that, click SAVE. Then click on CHOOSE FILE, and select the file that you just saved the scratches for. When it tells you it's done, click on OPEN REPORT, The scratches should be removed.

THIS:
1ST. OWATONNA, WELCOME TOVIRGINIA
2ND. STAR KICKER, CANADIAN CITIZEN
3RD. GREAT ISLANDER, PACKSADDLE
4TH. GIN CITY, MY SNAKE DOCTA, TEN LUCKY STARS
5TH. FORTUNATELY BOLD, MARTY'S HUNCH, GUSKA'S GOLD
6TH. BANK TELLER, SISTER STEPHANIE, SHINE FOR ME, REGAL ROCK, LOOKIN FOR ANSWERS
7TH. HI HO SILVERMAN
8TH. ELITE CLASS, REALLY NOW, MIKESLITTLEGIRL
9TH. DOTS RECORD SHOP, JOE'S LAD, THAT'S MAUVEALOUS, TEUTONIC KNIGHT, AZADI, BRI
G
HTEST HOPE

BECOMES THIS:
OWATONNA
WELCOME TOVIRGINIA
STAR KICKER
CANADIAN CITIZEN
GREAT ISLANDER
PACKSADDLE
GIN CITY
MY SNAKE DOCTA
TEN LUCKY STARS
FORTUNATELY BOLD
MARTY'S HUNCH
GUSKA'S GOLD
BANK TELLER
SISTER STEPHANIE
SHINE FOR ME
REGAL ROCK
LOOKIN FOR ANSWERS
HI HO SILVERMAN
ELITE CLASS
REALLY NOW
MIKESLITTLEGIRL
DOTS RECORD SHOP
JOE'S LAD
THAT'S MAUVEALOUS
TEUTONIC KNIGHT
AZADI
BRIGHTEST HOPE

:ThmbUp:

fight
03-11-2011, 12:28 PM
HOW DID YOU PUT THE RESULT #S HIGH TO LOW ?

dartman51
03-11-2011, 01:37 PM
HOW DID YOU PUT THE RESULT #S HIGH TO LOW ?

Cut and paste. I just did it because I like things neat. It takes a little time, but, that's just me. :ThmbUp:

fight
03-11-2011, 06:41 PM
your the best....next to headhawg :lol:

dartman51
03-11-2011, 07:03 PM
your the best....next to headhawg :lol:

To even be mentioned in the same breath, is an honor. TY ;)

douglasw32
03-11-2011, 07:10 PM
Thanks Dartman, I wish I could sort it that way but I am a rookie, Thanks for aking on the scratches explanation...handi thanks..

This is exactly the input I wanted, how do the top 4 perform?

Excellent. anyone who can keep that coming it is greatly appreciated !

Now a little black box of the old programs top 4 against the Report Card.
Or maybe taking the top 2 from each to make a new 4, etc.

Who knows, tis always fun. thats why I put it out there.

Also ghostrider5, it is just a power rating of sorts, looks at alot and just awards points. let me get around to writing out the formula and I will fill you all in.

dartman51
03-11-2011, 07:46 PM
Not too bad, 5 WINNERS on TOP @ GP :ThmbUp:

GP 2011-03-11
__________________________________________________ _________
Race #1 for 3 Year Olds , Clm 15000n2l, going 8.0f, on Dirt
================================================== =========
641 (01) NORA'S CAT WIN $ 3.60
475 (02) MARIA'S LUCK
358 (03) SOUTHSIDE LADY
337 (07) WILSON RIDGE PLACE
__________________________________________________ ______
Race #2 for 3 Year Olds , Clm 50000, going 6.0f, on Dirt
================================================== ======
543 (05) JUST SAY GOODBYE WIN $12.00
467 (06) LIMBO DANCER SHOW
452 (03) HENNY'S HURRICANE
403 (07) FLYING TRIP
__________________________________________________ _____
Race #3 for 3 Year Olds , Md 12500, going 8.0f, on Dirt
================================================== =====
312 (02) EXCHANGE CHIC
266 (06) CARRIETTA PLACE
245 (07) TRIPLECONSOLIDATOR
128 (09) ALLTHETIME
__________________________________________________ _______________
Race #4 for 4 Year Olds And Up, OClm 100000b, going 9.0f, on Dirt
================================================== ===============
673 (07) AMAZING WIN $ 4.60
644 (03) BELLE WATLING SHOW
476 (04) JOANIE'S CATCH
454 (01) TESORO DE AMOR
__________________________________________________ ______________
Race #5 for 4 Year Olds And Up, Clm 8000n1y, going 8.0f, on Dirt
================================================== ==============
571 (02) RUN SMART ONE SHOW
522 (01) TARGE
485 (1A) CHIEF BEAR WIN $ 3.40
479 (05) HEY BYRN PLACE
__________________________________________________ _______________
Race #6 for 4 Year Olds And Up, Clm 20000n2l, going 5.0f, on Turf
================================================== ===============
758 (03) JOCKEY RIDGE
635 (09) CITIZEN'S ARREST
619 (11) REFLECTED CAT PLACE
554 (01) LUCKY IRISH DAY
__________________________________________________ ___________
Race #7 for 3 Year Olds And Up, Md 35000, going 8.5f, on Turf
================================================== ===========
397 (03) HANSON HEIGHTS WIN $ 6.40
391 (11) BAZINE SHOW
340 (01) WAR COLLEGE PLACE
326 (05) RIVER LEMON
__________________________________________________ _____________
Race #8 for 4 Year Olds And Up, Alw 10000s, going 8.0f, on Dirt
================================================== =============
742 (08) HUFF 'N HUGHES
641 (03) HOLIDAY BLAKE
609 (05) TRUELYONBROADWAY PLACE
526 (06) STRONG STAR
__________________________________________________ _______________
Race #9 for 3 Year Olds And Up, Clm 20000n2l, going 8.5f, on Turf
================================================== ===============
490 (01) BLACK HONOR
460 (10) BAY POINT COUNTESS PLACE
453 (02) KATE'S HOLIDAY
388 (12) I'M UNFORGETTABLE SHOW
__________________________________________________ _________________________
Race #10 for 3 Year Olds , Md 35000, going 8.0f, on Turf @ (5:25)/4:25/3:25/2:25
================================================== =================
386 (02) DO IT BABY WIN $ 7.80
248 (04) GOODWOOD GAL
180 (05) TOMORROW CAME PLACE
179 (03) GIMME TWENTY

© 2008 Equibase Company LLC. All Rights Reserved. Software © 2008 Douglas Wood

mmdorn
03-11-2011, 08:13 PM
Hi Doug,

Good to see you back. I would also like to see the formula. Do you think that awarding points for different numbers as you are doing here, and in the Handifast program, is going to be better than points and the fast number? I am going to start testing the program on past data files I have on my computer. I keep everyone posted.

Thanks,
Mike

headhawg
03-11-2011, 08:24 PM
your the best....next to headhawg :lol:Hey. That's not funny. :D

Good to see you back in the game Doug.

fight
03-11-2011, 08:33 PM
if you dont sc print it out then sc with pen does it come out the same?

douglasw32
03-11-2011, 11:00 PM
Absolutely

mmdorn
03-12-2011, 11:38 AM
I used the RC software on two past days at Gulfstream, files attached.

douglasw32
03-12-2011, 11:54 AM
Thanks. I know it should not be used for maiden. Turf. And 2 yo races. This shows that.

punteray
03-12-2011, 01:13 PM
Is there a way to use MCP files?

Ray

fight
03-12-2011, 01:26 PM
YES YOU CAN USE THEM I DO.

mmdorn
03-12-2011, 02:30 PM
Hi Doug and all,

I am currently working on 2 past days from Saratoga September 2010, but the big news from Aqueduct's 1st race.

# 1 Leap Day Top # 533 broke bad rushed up to get the lead and ran 3rd
# 2 Karakorum On Black 22-1 and 2nd # 438 got the lead coming down the
stretch and just lost by a neck paid $11.60 for place.
# 4 Dealing Lucky 3rd # 414 won and paid $6.20.
Exacta - $81.50
Tri - $ 217.50

Since I am still checking the software I did not play, MY BAD.

Good Luck to All

Mike

douglasw32
03-12-2011, 03:38 PM
Nice

mmdorn
03-12-2011, 04:26 PM
Hi,

Picks for Saratoga September 2010 see attached

Mike

punteray
03-12-2011, 05:38 PM
Fight

How do you get the .mcp files into .eg format?

Ray

douglasw32
03-12-2011, 05:59 PM
Fight

How do you get the .mcp files into .eg format?

Ray

Just rename them but crap I will make it so you can choose all file types and re upload it, I'll let you know

douglasw32
03-12-2011, 06:02 PM
Hi,

Picks for Saratoga September 2010 see attached

Mike

Okay I am going to have to start hash marking , looks like it hit a fair share of turf and mdn's those two days ?

Anyone comparing it to how handifast did ?

of course like anythng else it is meant as a tool not a black box, but I love seeing it group tri's every now and then =)

fight
03-12-2011, 06:41 PM
doug winning. i compared thier 1 and2 picks for 3 days . i know handi is a good program but so fay doug doing better on top pick.today 3rd gpx doug cold top pick 66.40 ex cold 577.00. ps thats looking at sa gp tam aqu for 3days

punteray
03-12-2011, 06:51 PM
THANX

For some reason??? trying to rename the files did not work???

Ray

douglasw32
03-12-2011, 07:20 PM
Fight

How do you get the .mcp files into .eg format?

Ray

Uploaded a version that should allow selecting .mcp
let me know.
just overwrite the old one
same name and all on the hosting site.

fight
03-12-2011, 07:26 PM
for now i copy and paste mcp to the bin then when i choose filr i type in ex: tam0313.mcp

douglasw32
03-13-2011, 10:32 AM
.mcp should be able to be picked up anywhere and I uploaded another version that will open the bris file that jcapper puts out.

I am working on an export that will replace the bris prime power rating with my figure so it can be used in the ALLDATA spreadsheet.

raybo
03-14-2011, 11:06 AM
.mcp should be able to be picked up anywhere and I uploaded another version that will open the bris file that jcapper puts out.

I am working on an export that will replace the bris prime power rating with my figure so it can be used in the ALLDATA spreadsheet.

We appreciate that Doug! Let us know when you have the export working.

douglasw32
03-15-2011, 08:14 AM
Okay =) that took a while...

(May still have some quircks in the export so please let me know.
however, I got the program to create the "Scratch Sheet" and then Export to a folder called EXPORT (Tricky huh ?) a .DRF file that will open in ALLDATA but replace the BRIS Prime Power with the TRC fig from the sheet.

It should also open .mcp extensions now.

I did not add the export to the Jcapper sheet since that is all-ready using a custom exported file from them.

http://localpcpros.com/handifast/

The new version is named TRC.EXE and is a self extracting ZIP file.

douglasw32
03-15-2011, 10:22 PM
Fun ! I divided my RC fig by 100 in alldata to make it more like the size of the BB rating in all data then Add the two together.

Impressive results ;)

raybo
03-15-2011, 11:33 PM
Fun ! I divided my RC fig by 100 in alldata to make it more like the size of the BB rating in all data then Add the two together.

Impressive results ;)

Cooool!

I wasn't satisfied with the BB grades anyway, they work well at some tracks but really suck bad at others, but when they are working they hit some big prices.

Are you dividing your fig by 100, or by 10? 100 would yield numbers in the single digits wouldn't it?

I'll give your idea a try. I've got a test workbook, that allows me to batch process cards and results and output the picks and results to another sheet, then I have summary report formulas written for checking hit rates of the 6 picks, their ROIs and also my basic superfecta ticket hit rate and ROI. I'll stick the composite formula in it and batch process several tracks.

I have been busy and haven't even checked the csv output yet. But I will. I'll holler if I have questions.

douglasw32
03-15-2011, 11:54 PM
[QUOTE=raybo]Cooool!

Are you dividing your fig by 100, or by 10? 100 would yield numbers in the single digits wouldn't it?

I'll give your idea a try. I've got a test workbook, that allows me to batch process cards and results and output the picks and results to another sheet, then I have summary report formulas written for checking hit rates of the 6 picks, their ROIs and also my basic superfecta ticket hit rate and ROI. I'll stick the composite formula in it and batch process several tracks.
QUOTE]

Yes single digits, tried 10 didn't work but oonly had time to try a few.

Let me know what you come up with but the BB given the majority of the weight and the RC fig added in pushed some in the correct direction that having it at /100 or by itself did not.

A real test would Kick Ass, imho !

Just playing with it- I freakin love this spreadsheet!!!

raybo
03-16-2011, 12:00 AM
Fun ! I divided my RC fig by 100 in alldata to make it more like the size of the BB rating in all data then Add the two together.

Impressive results ;)

Doug,

In your export file, does your fig replace the Bris prime Power rating?

If so should I divide it by 100 or 10, before adding to the BB grade?

Thanks!

raybo
03-16-2011, 12:20 AM
Doug,

In your export file, does your fig replace the Bris prime Power rating?

If so should I divide it by 100 or 10, before adding to the BB grade?

Thanks!

Never mind, I saw the earlier post stating that your fig replaces Prime Power. Good deal, I don't ever use PP anyway.

Ok, I'll write a formula to divide your fig by 100, then add it to the BB grade and then I'll push a bunch of my files through your program, export the output, move them to a file on my C drive then open AllData NI Batch, import the TRC data files and my .xrd results files, and batch process them, checking the summary report for hit rate/ROI on all 6 picks that the BB/TRC kicks out. I'll let you know what happens.

douglasw32
03-16-2011, 12:34 AM
I can't wait, lots of work for you =)

douglasw32
03-16-2011, 12:38 AM
Here is a sheet I made from the spreadsheet for tampa tomorrow.

TAMPA ALLDATA (http://localpcpros.com/ALLDATA.pdf)

douglasw32
03-16-2011, 12:41 AM
Best Bet (largest numeric spread)

Race :9: :7: Sparkling Spirit | ML: 5-2

raybo
03-16-2011, 02:55 AM
Ok, I ran LaD for 2009 using the TRC/BB grade in AllData NI Batch. Not good.

Here's a screenshot of the summary for all 6 picks betting to win, then to place, and then to show. Going to try some different divisors for the TRC fig.

raybo
03-16-2011, 03:01 AM
Here is a sheet I made from the spreadsheet for tampa tomorrow.

TAMPA ALLDATA (http://localpcpros.com/ALLDATA.pdf)

Dang! Nice presentation!

Hope you have better luck than I did at LaD. I'll have to try some other tracks with your 100 divisor, it didn't work at LaD.

douglasw32
03-16-2011, 08:11 AM
Ouch..... would it be hard to try the RC fig independently.? Not divided. Not added.

douglasw32
03-16-2011, 08:44 AM
I like the way it follows logic, well my logic. 1st one should do better than 2nd, better than 4rd one etc, and show should happen more than place, and place more than win etc.

So as a black box, no profit, but I don't play Maiden, 2yo or Turf, and big fields with tifectas probably can't be tested.

But %age wise I would say it does a darn better job than me listening to Andy Beyer ;)

Not sure if it is possible, but maybe compare just the BB, just the RC, and then like you say maybe play with making the 2 figures "match" on another a little better.

Is interesting, love the knowledge a database can show so quickly, again thanks for the wonderful tool.

raybo
03-16-2011, 10:14 AM
Ouch..... would it be hard to try the RC fig independently.? Not divided. Not added.

No, easily done.

raybo
03-16-2011, 10:19 AM
I like the way it follows logic, well my logic. 1st one should do better than 2nd, better than 4rd one etc, and show should happen more than place, and place more than win etc.

So as a black box, no profit, but I don't play Maiden, 2yo or Turf, and big fields with tifectas probably can't be tested.

But %age wise I would say it does a darn better job than me listening to Andy Beyer ;)

Not sure if it is possible, but maybe compare just the BB, just the RC, and then like you say maybe play with making the 2 figures "match" on another a little better.

Is interesting, love the knowledge a database can show so quickly, again thanks for the wonderful tool.

Yeah, the progression is fine.

I can write some more IF statements to filter out Mdns, 2YOs, and Turf. Can also run your TRI/large fields test. 10+ runners for large field?

raybo
03-16-2011, 10:47 PM
I ran the RC fig against 75 cards at LaD from 2009, the same cards as the previous screenshot, all races (I'll run them again with no 2 YOs, Mdns, ot turf later was gone all day and didn't have time to write all those IF statements).

Here's the summary report:

John
03-16-2011, 10:51 PM
I can't wait, lots of work for you =)


AMEN!!!

raybo
03-17-2011, 12:43 AM
Here is the RC figs, same cards, no 2YO, no Mdns, no turf.

LaD isn't being nice to either of us.

douglasw32
03-17-2011, 03:43 AM
One word: hmmm "Revealing"

That is so awesome of you, it would take me years to know that information.
I think it needs tweaking, funny thing is I started out with trying to get it to put together tifectas from the top 4. and it seems to be doing so.

It is also heavily biased towards dirt, but I think the regular bris prime power would out perform it by the looks of things, and if I may I think it may need a lot of the BB put into it ;)

Maybe you could check just BB, just BRIS when you have time, I find this utterly amazing you can do this.

douglasw32
03-17-2011, 03:52 AM
My figs are actually worst filtered to what I have perceived in my wagering to be there strong point... The TRI may prove insightful. top 4 in anything with 10 or more horses. is how I usually shoot at it.

douglasw32
03-17-2011, 04:12 AM
AVERAGE(IE4606,IN4606,IV4606)+M4606/112)

M is the bris prime, the export replaces that with the RC
The RC is actually divided by /112 in the formula then I am adding it back in.

I am going to play around some more.

douglasw32
03-17-2011, 04:55 AM
Okay so I think I figured out my problem. ALLdata BB takes the bris Prime field divides by 112 in the ability section of the BB figure.

The RC fig includes Bris Prime but (-112)

So I modified this.
=IF(OR(IE4606="",IN4606="",IV4606=""),"",AVERAGE(IE4606,IN4606,IV4606)+M4606)

To not have the 112 division since that field (the bris prime) is being replaced with the RC that allready dilutes there figure in a different way.

Making the BB figure use my export the way I originally intended.
Maybe you could run those 75 card one more time ;)

If I made a bit of sense at 3:30am

douglasw32
03-17-2011, 11:20 PM
Okay that won't work, instead I modified this and tweaked the idea some more.

=IF(C4632="","",BQ4606+((M4606/100))*2)

Seems to fit well with this parameter.

One more test if you can, using this division then I will let it rest.

raybo
03-18-2011, 12:22 AM
Okay that won't work, instead I modified this and tweaked the idea some more.

=IF(C4632="","",BQ4606+((M4606/100))*2)

Seems to fit well with this parameter.

One more test if you can, using this division then I will let it rest.

Doug,

Where do you want this formula put, in the "Ability" column?

douglasw32
03-18-2011, 11:58 PM
Sorry , Summaries Tab--> BB Grade starting at AW4632

BO 4606 and down removed the bris prime field/112
so it only has this.
=IF(OR(IE4606="",IN4606="",IV4606=""),"",AVERAGE(IE4606,IN4606,IV4606))

douglasw32
03-19-2011, 12:03 AM
Also anyone following along, the export loads into alldata but loses some stuff at times, it will not open in handifast so it is still not perfect so I will go through it again tomorrow to figure out where it is messing up

raybo
03-19-2011, 12:11 AM
Sorry , Summaries Tab--> BB Grade starting at AW4632

BO 4606 and down removed the bris prime field/112
so it only has this.
=IF(OR(IE4606="",IN4606="",IV4606=""),"",AVERAGE(IE4606,IN4606,IV4606))

So, you need the ability formulas, BO4606 and down, and the BB grade formulas AW4632 and down, changed?

douglasw32
03-19-2011, 10:22 AM
IF thats not too much for you to do in your test environment and run that modification through those same race cards. It seems to work okay but I only managed to check out like 3 days.

douglasw32
03-19-2011, 07:01 PM
Also.. I uploaded a newer version of RC.exe (TRC, thoroughbred report card) it now exports a proper CSV file labeled with an eXXXXX.drf format to a folder named C:/tsn1 (for use with) http://alldataexcel.weebly.com/
It also now works with HHXV21 and WR-P, and I uploaded the VB Code I used.

raybo
03-19-2011, 08:59 PM
Also.. I uploaded a newer version of RC.exe (TRC, thoroughbred report card) it now exports a proper CSV file labeled with an eXXXXX.drf format to a folder named C:/tsn1 (for use with) http://alldataexcel.weebly.com/
It also now works with HHXV21 and WR-P, and I uploaded the VB Code I used.

The drf files with the "e" in front, won't get imported into Alldata. The "e" will have to be removed before AllData can import it.

douglasw32
03-19-2011, 09:29 PM
Works on mine?

douglasw32
03-19-2011, 10:50 PM
But it's your baby so my export does not put the "e" in front. and I fixed a bug that was throwing some of the RC power ratings off kilter in the export.

raybo
03-19-2011, 11:21 PM
But it's your baby so my export does not put the "e" in front. and I fixed a bug that was throwing some of the RC power ratings off kilter in the export.

Well crap, my bad, I didn't have the correct results file in my folder so when it looked for the results the import failed. You can put the "e" back in front if you want.

Sorry!

douglasw32
03-20-2011, 12:11 AM
no sweat, i'll leave it, works great, thanks again, the spreadsheet is great

raybo
03-20-2011, 06:08 PM
no sweat, i'll leave it, works great, thanks again, the spreadsheet is great

Ok, sorry it took so long, had a bunch of new errors pop up after making the formula changes.

Same 74 cards at LaD, using the changes Doug requested:

douglasw32
03-20-2011, 07:33 PM
That is awesome !

Thanks for the confidence builder, I also tweaked the pace selection but I won't keep taking your time up testing things for me =)

It works, that is all I was after.

raybo
03-20-2011, 07:39 PM
That is awesome !

Thanks for the confidence builder, I also tweaked the pace selection but I won't keep taking your time up testing things for me =)

It works, that is all I was after.

Are you talking about paceline selection or something else?

douglasw32
03-20-2011, 08:11 PM
Sorry, yes I meant I followed your pop up readme's and set the paceline selection to do more of what I would.

raybo
03-20-2011, 11:38 PM
Sorry, yes I meant I followed your pop up readme's and set the paceline selection to do more of what I would.

Ahhh, cool! The Auto-Paceline Selection method could use some public demonstration and testing. This is probably the most underused/misunderstood section of the Batch program and it is one of the most important.

Post a screenshot of that area and I'll run it.

Maybe we can get some collaboration/discussion started about it. Doing a good job of utilizing this method can be a real time saver. If done properly, the only manual overriding the user should need to do concerns obvious "bad" trips.

douglasw32
03-21-2011, 12:00 AM
Exactly, will do

raybo
03-21-2011, 12:44 AM
By the way, for anyone following these tests, and if you are one that believes that the Bris Prime Power number is predictive at all tracks, here is a test of the Bris Prime Power number being used as the only criteria for the picks. Same track, same cards, same restrictions on playable races:

raybo
03-21-2011, 03:36 AM
Here's the same cards using one of my favorite factors as the criteria, TEPF. Some good prices using this factor.

llegend39
03-21-2011, 10:31 AM
By the way, for anyone following these tests, and if you are one that believes that the Bris Prime Power number is predictive at all tracks, here is a test of the Bris Prime Power number being used as the only criteria for the picks. Same track, same cards, same restrictions on playable races:

Do you have any Tam cards to run thru? My limited play at Tam so far this meet I have found the top 4 Bris Power winning around 80% of the races
On Sat 2/19 the top 4 won 10/12-including a $40 horse in the last race and by boxing the top 4 resulted in a $256 exacta and a $1242 Tri.

raybo
03-21-2011, 07:59 PM
Do you have any Tam cards to run thru? My limited play at Tam so far this meet I have found the top 4 Bris Power winning around 80% of the races
On Sat 2/19 the top 4 won 10/12-including a $40 horse in the last race and by boxing the top 4 resulted in a $256 exacta and a $1242 Tri.

Sorry, I don't have any Tam cards available, yet.

dartman51
03-22-2011, 02:34 AM
Do you have any Tam cards to run thru? My limited play at Tam so far this meet I have found the top 4 Bris Power winning around 80% of the races
On Sat 2/19 the top 4 won 10/12-including a $40 horse in the last race and by boxing the top 4 resulted in a $256 exacta and a $1242 Tri.

For the month of January 2011 @ TAM, BRIS PRIME POWER Top 4

RACES=213
WIN BETS= 213 x 4 = 852 x $2 = $1704
WIN = 158 = 74.18%
RETURN = $1458.60 FOR -$245.40
ROI = -14.4% :ThmbDown:

EXACTA BETS 213 x $24.00 = $5112 ($2 BOXES)
WIN = 110 = 51.64%
RETURN = $4927.60 FOR -$184.40
ROI = -3.61% :ThmbDown:

TRIFECTA BETS = 213 x $24.00 = $5112 ($1 BOXES)
WIN = 53 = 24.89%
RETURN = $4839.20 FOR -$272.00
ROI = -5.34% :ThmbDown:

SUPER BETS = 213 x $24.00 = $5112 ($1 BOXES)
WIN = 14 = 6.57%
RETURN = $1835.80 FOR -$3276.20
ROI = -64.1% :ThmbDown:

Not a profitable situation. Could have improved some, possibly by not playing ANY race with FTS. I didn't take the time to check that.

douglasw32
03-28-2011, 12:20 AM
Uploaded a new version, replaces old has some tweaks to work better with the export in alldata.

in the ability column on the summary tab where the bris prime power that the rc export replaces with it's own change the divide by 112 to multiply by 112 and it hits some crazy tri's

maybe raybo will feel like running some more exports and re-testing it.

douglasw32
03-28-2011, 12:21 AM
Oh and with that tweak I have done better myself manually over riding the selected pace line with the best speed of the last 10 as the line.

not sure if there is a way to make that automatic ?

fight
03-28-2011, 01:10 PM
i downloaded your lastest program hopefully. i knowtist the results #s are lower than the 1st program ex like 112 hi# comared to 801 etc am i in the latest program trc?

SoCaGambler
03-28-2011, 08:44 PM
I downloaded the latest update to TRC. I believe that I am doing something wrong or it’s not working properly. Here is what I am experiencing.

I click on the RC icon to open the file selection.
When I click on step 2 (Choose File) my race files located in TSN1 folder come up.
When I choose a file- I receive an error message (run-time error ‘55’) file already open.
I can click on step 3 Open Report and the file opens and has ratings for the races requested. However when I close the card it doesn’t reload the file in TSN with the “E” designation as the original did. Any idea what I might be doing wrong? Thanks in advance. Chuck

douglasw32
03-28-2011, 09:45 PM
Sorry looks like I uploaded a test one. here is the direct link to the newest one.

http://localpcpros.com/handifast/TRC.exe

After it is decompressed it is important to open the Sub Folder labeled SUPPORT FILES and run those two files.

Then launch the program.

The one named library files will leave behind a shortcut on your desktop to "Check your computer speed" just delete it.

douglasw32
03-28-2011, 09:48 PM
Let me know if this happens after you run the two files in the "Support Files" Folder.

If it does make sure there is a folder on your Root C: drive named "tsn1"

That is where the export will end up for use with the alldata spreadsheet.


I downloaded the latest update to TRC. I believe that I am doing something wrong or it’s not working properly. Here is what I am experiencing.

I click on the RC icon to open the file selection.
When I click on step 2 (Choose File) my race files located in TSN1 folder come up.
When I choose a file- I receive an error message (run-time error ‘55’) file already open.
I can click on step 3 Open Report and the file opens and has ratings for the races requested. However when I close the card it doesn’t reload the file in TSN with the “E” designation as the original did. Any idea what I might be doing wrong? Thanks in advance. Chuck

SoCaGambler
03-28-2011, 10:12 PM
Thanks Doug, this new upload solved my problem with opening the file. Should running the file send an "E" file to the TSN folder? The first one did but this one is not. Thanks again for sharing your hard work.

raybo
03-28-2011, 10:23 PM
Let me know if this happens after you run the two files in the "Support Files" Folder.

If it does make sure there is a folder on your Root C: drive named "tsn1"

That is where the export will end up for use with the alldata spreadsheet.

Doug,

I followed your instructions and got the same error. I notice that the .mcp files in my "tsn1" folder don't show, only the .drf files.

douglasw32
03-28-2011, 11:00 PM
I removed the 'e should I put it back ?

douglasw32
03-28-2011, 11:01 PM
I never tested it with the MCP files...
I'll look into that.

SoCaGambler
03-29-2011, 12:30 AM
I removed the 'e should I put it back ?
Thats fine. It was a quick flag to note which file was updated. Thanks Doug

douglasw32
03-29-2011, 09:58 AM
10 seconds to put it back now that raybo cleared it as working ;)
I'll let you know when it is changed,

Have to test the mcp files anyhow

douglasw32
03-29-2011, 08:31 PM
Done .MCP files show again, the "e" prefixes the exports to tsn1.

Minor adjustment to the formula.

raybo
03-29-2011, 11:38 PM
Done .MCP files show again, the "e" prefixes the exports to tsn1.

Minor adjustment to the formula.

Looks good now.

douglasw32
03-30-2011, 12:34 AM
Something is up with the MCP export though it messes up the race # and the trainer data in alldata.

I'll mess with it over the weekend

BTW- Only change I made in alldata this time around was.

Ability column, summary tab, took out the Divide by 112 at the end of this formula and copied it down.

=IF(OR(IE4606="",IN4606="",IV4606=""),"",AVERAGE(IE4606,IN4606,IV4606)+M4606)

I also tweaked the hell out of my copy and got it to auto select the best speed figure of the 10, nice marriage since my number focuses on last race.

Thanks again, when i hit a pick 6 your getting 10% lol

raybo
03-30-2011, 09:34 AM
Something is up with the MCP export though it messes up the race # and the trainer data in alldata.

I'll mess with it over the weekend

BTW- Only change I made in alldata this time around was.

Ability column, summary tab, took out the Divide by 112 at the end of this formula and copied it down.

=IF(OR(IE4606="",IN4606="",IV4606=""),"",AVERAGE(IE4606,IN4606,IV4606)+M4606)

I also tweaked the hell out of my copy and got it to auto select the best speed figure of the 10, nice marriage since my number focuses on last race.

Thanks again, when i hit a pick 6 your getting 10% lol

Doug,

So you're using the number in column "BQ" for the "BB Grade" in column "AW"?

douglasw32
03-30-2011, 10:42 PM
Yes but I removed the "/112" in column BO leaving just +M4606...etc

raybo
03-31-2011, 12:18 AM
Yes but I removed the "/112" in column BO leaving just +M4606...etc

Yeah, I caught that and changed it.

So, this is the formula in the top cell of the BB Grade, column "AW"?

=IF(OR(C4632="",BQ4606=""),"",BQ4606+((M4606/100))*2)

raybo
03-31-2011, 12:27 AM
By the way, I don't know how you changed the auto-paceline select method, but, the "Manual Override" can be changed from manual to auto simply by writing criteria formulas on the same lines as the pacelines and then referencing those cells in the "Manual Overrides" column, so that if your criteria comes up true for a particular paceline, then there is a character placed in the corresponding cell in the "Manual Overrides" column, which will then override the auto-paceline selection method.

In your case, you would write a formula to see if the speed figure in the 1st paceline is the horse's best, if it is, then the resulting value = "x" or "1" or any other character, if it isn't, then the formula result would be ="", then copy that formula down for that horse's 10 pacelines, then select all 10 of those paceline formulas and paste them down for the rest of the horses.

You can use this method for any selection criteria you want to use.

dartman51
04-01-2011, 10:27 AM
Nice catch on the $22 horse @ AQU in the 7th, but was wondering what the extra characters are, to the left of the track name. They only show up on the files imported from TRC.

Great job on the 2 programs, guys.

raybo
04-01-2011, 08:03 PM
Nice catch on the $22 horse @ AQU in the 7th, but was wondering what the extra characters are, to the left of the track name. They only show up on the files imported from TRC.

Great job on the 2 programs, guys.

You'll have to ask Doug, I have no idea.

douglasw32
04-02-2011, 09:45 AM
"So, this is the formula in the top cell of the BB Grade, column "AW"?

=IF(OR(C4632="",BQ4606=""),"",BQ4606+((M4606/100))*2)"

Negative =) everything else is exactly your settings, other than removing the 112.

And it is kicking ass, I did modify my sheet to auto paceline select the fastest speed rating of the 10 going against the grain somewhat, but it is working well.

douglasw32
04-02-2011, 09:46 AM
By the way, I don't know how you changed the auto-paceline select method, but, the "Manual Override" can be changed from manual to auto simply by writing criteria formulas on the same lines as the pacelines and then referencing those cells in the "Manual Overrides" column, so that if your criteria comes up true for a particular paceline, then there is a character placed in the corresponding cell in the "Manual Overrides" column, which will then override the auto-paceline selection method.

In your case, you would write a formula to see if the speed figure in the 1st paceline is the horse's best, if it is, then the resulting value = "x" or "1" or any other character, if it isn't, then the formula result would be ="", then copy that formula down for that horse's 10 pacelines, then select all 10 of those paceline formulas and paste them down for the rest of the horses.

You can use this method for any selection criteria you want to use.

Awesome thanks for that advice, and that is how I did it. all be it after hours of thinking =)

douglasw32
04-02-2011, 09:48 AM
Nice catch on the $22 horse @ AQU in the 7th, but was wondering what the extra characters are, to the left of the track name. They only show up on the files imported from TRC.

Great job on the 2 programs, guys.

That is , "You used a MCP file" I have to figure out what it is doing, it seems to be joining some Text fields together on the export, compared to the normal DRF file.

hcap
04-02-2011, 11:15 AM
Very interesting work Doug. As the co-author of AllData, I would suggest another way to deal with testing very large data sets. Unfortunately it would be a lot of work, but it would allow testing and tweaking many thousands of races in less than a minute. or so.

You are able to write sophisticated formulas in Excel. If you could translate your code into Excel, we could open cards and results and output to a database directly. Once in database form we could do 2 different things.
1-Analise your numbers in conjunction with dozens of other factors and filters.
2-Extract the raw data you need to compose your formulas to another type of Rxcel program where you could actually change the parameters of your code and test new configurations very quickly. At the moment I have been working with over 4,000 races and am able to write totally different formulas on in the same program, and run those 4000 races in less that a minute. I use it to test WPS and exotic bets.

A lot of work, but I would be willing to help and I am sure Ray would pitch in as well. I would take care of automation and help with formulas, and Ray is exceptional writing formulas.

Harry

douglasw32
04-02-2011, 12:56 PM
I think I can, it is mainly just doing simple logic, on every horse and true false adding up a figure, then some math.

It is not very complicated at all.

It is based on just things people have said that I read, like 5F works having an impact or things Ed Bain or Mark Kramer have pointed out, etc.

not some fancy scientific formula but more the computer doing my work for me and assigning it a value.

douglasw32
04-02-2011, 01:00 PM
The thing is just like my original program without a bunch of testing and I just do not have a way of doing that, I can only assign the same value for each true statement, I would like to know that some have more of an impact than others and weight them a bit in the final calculation.

That is the dream anyway.

And it works better combining it with the BB figure in your product, thus the export.

So if I could wrap it all up into one even better, it was just easy for me to refashion the VB code I had.

But I think it would work just as well added into the spreadsheet

raybo
04-02-2011, 08:26 PM
"So, this is the formula in the top cell of the BB Grade, column "AW"?

=IF(OR(C4632="",BQ4606=""),"",BQ4606+((M4606/100))*2)"

Negative =) everything else is exactly your settings, other than removing the 112.

And it is kicking ass, I did modify my sheet to auto paceline select the fastest speed rating of the 10 going against the grain somewhat, but it is working well.


Ok, so just reference the new BB number in column "BO", which combines the standard BB and your number?

douglasw32
04-03-2011, 12:22 AM
Sorry I made this confusing.

This is my BO formula.

=IF(OR(IE4606="",IN4606="",IV4606=""),"",AVERAGE(IE4606,IN4606,IV4606)+M4606)

This is th orginal.

=IF(OR(IE4606="",IN4606="",IV4606=""),"",AVERAGE(IE4606,IN4606,IV4606)+M4606/112)

I removed the divide by 112

then drag it down.

This modifies the BQ column that the BB draws from.

hcap
04-03-2011, 08:48 AM
Doug, what version of Excel are you using?
Pre-2007 is way better. AllData programs wiil run much faster under pre-2007.

Just checked the newer database program I mentioned. Running same 4,000+races with 2007. Instead of under 1 minute with 20003 about 3 using 2007. Doable bit not preferable.

raybo
04-03-2011, 08:49 AM
Sorry I made this confusing.

This is my BO formula.

=IF(OR(IE4606="",IN4606="",IV4606=""),"",AVERAGE(IE4606,IN4606,IV4606)+M4606)

This is th orginal.

=IF(OR(IE4606="",IN4606="",IV4606=""),"",AVERAGE(IE4606,IN4606,IV4606)+M4606/112)

I removed the divide by 112

then drag it down.

This modifies the BQ column that the BB draws from.

Ok, gotcha!

douglasw32
04-03-2011, 11:05 AM
Doug, what version of Excel are you using?
Pre-2007 is way better. AllData programs wiil run much faster under pre-2007.

Just checked the newer database program I mentioned. Running same 4,000+races with 2007. Instead of under 1 minute with 20003 about 3 using 2007. Doable bit not preferable.

I have the XP version, 2003, 2007 and the newest 2010

raybo
04-03-2011, 06:18 PM
Doug,

What track are you looking at that the TRC/BB number is doing well?

I set AllData up like you explained, have the paceline, with the best speed number, as the selected paceline, and ran the same cards as before, from LaD, , no maidens, no turf, and the results are still not good.

I'll post the screenshot so you can see he results from all those cards.

Maybe LaD is one of those tracks where your composite number just doesn't work well.

raybo
04-03-2011, 06:29 PM
Here's the screenshot using the latest configuration of the TRC/BB figure.

Same cards as the previous screenshots.

douglasw32
04-03-2011, 09:48 PM
GP, TAM, SA and AQU.

Maybe I should post a current race make sure the numbers are the same.

raybo
04-03-2011, 10:51 PM
I have SA, 2009, ran a month of cards (.mcp files) through your program. Then went into the tsn1 folder and renamed all those files to get rid of the "e" in front of the file names. Then ran AllData, batch processed those same cards and results and got 89 plays and only got 1 hit using the top 4 picks.

I must be doing something wrong, that's impossible. Or, something is getting screwed up.

I removed the "e" in front of the names thinking that AllData would not be able to match up the cards, with the "e" in front, with the appropriate results files. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think so.

raybo
04-03-2011, 11:21 PM
I just opened one of the files in the tsn1 folder from your program and there's a bunch of characters preceding the track code, this is causing the races to appear to be canceled. The track code in the cards and the results must match in order to get the results to display correctly.

All the horses are showing to be scratched in the "Past performances", "Pace Ratings" and Summaries views.

douglasw32
04-04-2011, 08:32 AM
ALL I can think is maybe older cards wouldn't work but I ran past Kentucky Derby cards through and they worked.

I use just drf dingle files not MCP, something still goes on with that export.

To be sure we are looking at the exact same thing I uploaded a zip folder named RAYBO to http://localpcpros.com/handifast

Unzip, use that, pull the card from the Data folder included, it will export to you tsn1 folder, use the alldata sheet included.

See if it still happens, if not then maybe it will troubleshoot out the problem.

If you could send me s anippet of the original export and the one messing up I might be able to sort out why and correct it.

I have never used results files, just the PP portion so the export may very well need some TLC.

This is the Florida Derby Figures from that uploaded sheet.
1/8/2/7

Horse # BB Grade 1 171.13
2 165.81 3 162.85 4 162.06 5 155.70 6 159.69 7 164.88 8 170.48

raybo
04-04-2011, 09:24 AM
ALL I can think is maybe older cards wouldn't work but I ran past Kentucky Derby cards through and they worked.

I use just drf dingle files not MCP, something still goes on with that export.

To be sure we are looking at the exact same thing I uploaded a zip folder named RAYBO to http://localpcpros.com/handifast

Unzip, use that, pull the card from the Data folder included, it will export to you tsn1 folder, use the alldata sheet included.

See if it still happens, if not then maybe it will troubleshoot out the problem.

If you could send me s anippet of the original export and the one messing up I might be able to sort out why and correct it.

I have never used results files, just the PP portion so the export may very well need some TLC.

This is the Florida Derby Figures from that uploaded sheet.
1/8/2/7

Horse # BB Grade 1 171.13
2 165.81 3 162.85 4 162.06 5 155.70 6 159.69 7 164.88 8 170.48

Here you go. The .drf files work fine.

douglasw32
04-04-2011, 10:50 AM
Do the results files work with those?

douglasw32
04-04-2011, 12:29 PM
Sorry Raybo that was me trying to post from my phone... Let me start over.

So we have the same numbers, and the .drf files are working, so do they work with the results and the export with the "e" added to it ?

If so is all I am dealing with fixing is still the MCP files export ?

And if so, can you still do your fancy check of the combined number with the BB figure your program has using the drf files ?

also I go back and forth since I can not test it hardcore, but can you (if it works)

1. Run it with just the BB as is but with my import default paceline selection (Basically the way it is right after the download),
2. just my replaced Power rating,
3. and the combined power rating and BB modified with no division of 112.

Then the same 3 tests but with the autopaceline selecting only the best speed rating of the last 10.

And let me know what of those 6 has the best win %

So I know if it really matters one way or another.

My observation is all of them put the same horses in the top4, just moves them around a bit.

If I am pushing it with the request just ignore me =)

douglasw32
04-04-2011, 12:33 PM
One more thing it takes an unfair hit if there are foreign imports or 1st time starters in the race that win.

I know filtering for that would be unlikely, just saying =(

Otherwise I have been using it with turf, dirt, and any distance, even maidens with no firsters.

raybo
04-04-2011, 06:23 PM
I had to remove the "e" from the cards to run "with results". AllData must see the same track code and date, for both files, in order to match up cards and results files.

Here are the 4 GP cards you put in the "Raybo" download, run in batch mode and sent to my database. The settings were: The BB picks only, best speed paceline as the paceline selection.

raybo
04-04-2011, 06:37 PM
Same setup, except, using the TRC figure only, no BB included, also using the paceline with best speed as the paceline selection.

raybo
04-04-2011, 06:46 PM
Same setup, except, used BB + TRC, best speed paceline selection.

raybo
04-04-2011, 07:17 PM
Same setup, BB picks only, using your auto-paceline selection settings.

raybo
04-04-2011, 07:53 PM
TRC only, and your auto-paceline selection settings.

raybo
04-04-2011, 08:12 PM
BB + TRC, with your auto-paceline settings.

douglasw32
04-04-2011, 10:08 PM
Looks like just the BB did best to me.

douglasw32
04-04-2011, 10:23 PM
If I read it correctly though, since I use the top 4 (the 6 are handy in case someone scratches since I usually go to an OTB) and Bet Win more than anything I should stick with the BB+TRC highest speed paceline.

Least loss on ROI%

Correct ?

And beofre anyone says it, I think we all get it is a very small sample ;)

I also think the "e" needs to be removed again to make it easier to use results.

P.S. Raybo thanks for doing the hard stuff.

raybo
04-04-2011, 10:29 PM
Looks like just the BB did best to me.

1 track, 4 cards, hardly enough data to tell us much.

douglasw32
04-04-2011, 10:58 PM
Looks worth exploring though =) I know I have never been happier betting on the weekend !

raybo
04-05-2011, 09:18 AM
Well, if I were going to use the results of these 6 tests, as a strategy, I would only use it for GP, I would only use top 3 BB picks, and I would only bet 7/2 horses, or above, from those top 3 picks. 1 unit for each horse bet, win only.

BB only with speed race as the paceline, produced 93% winners hit in the top 3 picks. That's pretty unbeatable, if wagered correctly.

As we all should know by now, money is made off the wagering strategy, not the handicapping strategy.

douglasw32
04-05-2011, 08:12 PM
Very true, I am salivating for a larger sample...

Another thing I am curious of

what if, you considered, paceline of best Speed.

WIN Only- instead of BB+TRC

BB AND TRC

What if we looked at the Best BB pick and the best TRC figure, independent of one another.

Like 2 Win Bets.

78.57 % Hit Rate

14 Races

$56 invested
$48.40 Returned

======
<7.60> Lost.

I think that is 27 Cents on the dollar lost.

Playing all races with no other handicapping.


If I have the Math right, then doing the same thing with the auto paceline selection is even better doing it that way.

douglasw32
04-05-2011, 08:23 PM
Would that not be 100% Hit 25.71% ROI
Pretty sure I am screwing the math up. has to be some way to figure thatout though right ?

Top BB and Top TRC both to Win, auto paceline.

raybo
04-05-2011, 11:52 PM
Would that not be 100% Hit 25.71% ROI
Pretty sure I am screwing the math up. has to be some way to figure thatout though right ?

Top BB and Top TRC both to Win, auto paceline.

Remember, sometimes the TRC and BB will pick the same horse, so I doubt seriously if this would produce 100% winners, and probably not 25.71% ROI.

What we really need are more races and results to test before anything concrete is obtained.

Patience. As we know, things change as a meet progresses.

However, as a contender method, there is promise shown in the tests, thus far.

Proper wagering, with value as the priority, will yield a profit, if, viable contenders are found.

raybo
04-06-2011, 12:36 AM
As you know, win betting is not my game, but it was years ago, and I learned rather quickly that this game will swallow you up and spit you out if you can't overcome your losses with your wins. It's very hard to cover losses with win betting, something else I learned early on.

However, the basic premise behind win betting, for profit, and superfecta wagering, for profit, is the same. The average payout must defeat your win/loss ratio.

Simple math and rule of thumb will tell you that if you hit 33% (1/3) of your wagers, you should have an average odds of 3/1. In 100 wagers you will invest $200. What average price do you need, to produce a profit? You will hit 33 winners. If they average 5/2 that's $7 x 33, or $231. So, to be safe, fudge it and make acceptable odds 3/1 or higher.

You fudge the odds, on the high side, because some of your 33% hit rate will be on low odds horses, and removing those from your wagering will surely lower your hit rate. Lower hit rate means you need higher average odds, in order to profit.

In the scenario I suggested in the previous post, we're going to be wagering up to 3 horses per playable race. Yes, often, 1 or 2 of those horses will be under 3/1, so we wager less than 3 horses. But, sometimes we will wager all 3, and pretty often we will wager 2 horses. In the scenario I used, with 92.9% winners in the top 3 picks, we're going to hit almost 100% of the races we wager, if we bet all of our top 3 picks. If we assume that we will always bet all 3 of the horses, we will hit just shy of 33% of our plays, in every race (not including dead heats). There's that 5/2 odds again, but we fudged to 3/1, with only 1 wager per race. To cover the 7.1% we don't hit, and to cover multiple wagers in some races, we fudge to 7/2 or higher, as our minimum acceptable odds.

That would be a good starting point, for a decent wagering strategy. Once more races are in the database, the odds can be tweaked higher some, if we find that a sizable number of our winners are from our low odds, unplayable, horses.

If not, we may be able to tweak the odds lower, to 3/1 or even 5/2.

douglasw32
04-06-2011, 11:13 PM
That is some good information ! Thanks for taking the time to post it.
What about pick 3's ? that is win based. but no way of knowing the odds?

raybo
04-06-2011, 11:40 PM
That is some good information ! Thanks for taking the time to post it.
What about pick 3's ? that is win based. but no way of knowing the odds?

No help there! Why do you think they call them "picks"? It's like the lottery, almost. I have never played a pick in my life.

I guess if I were going to play them, I would approach them similar to the way I play supers. I would insist that I know who the post time favs are going to be, first. If I can't figure that out, I would pass.

Secondly, once I know who the favs are going to be, I would make sure that I'm not betting on at least 2 favs in a pick 3, or at least 3 favs in a pick 4. The morning line, is the most obvious tool for guesstimating the minimum odds spread for a given ticket, but maybe someone has a good line that better mimics the public's choices. Obviously, the higher the minimum odds spread, the more the ticket will pay, and therefore the more horses you can include on the ticket. I would stay away from any ticket that could be inexpensively "boxed" by the public (by "boxed" I mean races where all the player has to do is bet the top 2 or 3 ML favs for each of the 3 or 4 races in the pick). Picks where the top 3 morning line horses look legit, and must be included on the ticket, would appear to be bad bets, too many players will have that ticket.

Probably the best tickets would include races with several firsters, chaos races, large fields, very cheap priced horses, etc..

Final odds are not important in the picks. It's all about odds "order", make sure you aren't betting too many favs, 2nd favs, and 3rd favs, on the same ticket.

Another thing I would study, are pool sizes vs race "slots" (especially in the "rolling" picks) to find out when, on the card, the largest pools are available to win. If it's like supers, the later in the card you go, the larger the pools, with exceptions for certain types of races, like stakes races, higher class allowance races, etc.. The early picks usually include a race or 2 that are considered "crap" races, maidens, 2 yos, etc.. Many picks players probably don't wager too much money in these slots due to the difficulty of handicapping the races and the number of runners that must be included. While these scenarios would offer good "value", normally, the pool size must be there, or you're betting against yourself.

douglasw32
04-07-2011, 04:34 AM
Again thank you.

fight
04-09-2011, 05:54 PM
can you help me. i drew down 2 different final versons one is the latest verson but i cant tell witch one here is example of both saturday 6th aqu
Race #6 for 3 Year Olds And Up, Clm 7500b, going 6.0f, on Dirt @ (3:37)/2:37/1:37/12:37
================================================== =================
103 (01) SUMFUN
105 (02) INTREPID
111 (03) SURFING IAN
099 (04) JELLO SHOT
095 (05) EAST END BOY
004 (06) CIHANGIR
106 (07) LITTLE WISE GUY
096 (08) MR. DR. PROFESSOR
101 (09) KING RUSH
108 (10) DRINK AT LAST CALL
096 (11) BUZZ OFF BUSTER
102 (12) EX PAT

Race #6 for 3 Year Olds And Up, Clm 7500b, going 6.0f, on Dirt
================================================== ============
112 (10) DRINK AT LAST CALL
111 (03) SURFING IAN
106 (07) LITTLE WISE GUY
105 (02) INTREPID
103 (01) SUMFUN
102 (12) EX PAT
101 (09) KING RUSH
099 (04) JELLO SHOT
096 (08) MR. DR. PROFESSOR
096 (11) BUZZ OFF BUSTER
095 (05) EAST END BOY
004 (06) CIHANGIR
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