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DJofSD
03-09-2011, 05:55 PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PIMCO-Total-Return-dumps-US-rb-669816341.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The world's largest bond fund dumped all of its U.S. government debt in the biggest signal yet of how negative investors have become about the U.S. Treasury market.

The fat lady is clearing her throat.

Saratoga_Mike
03-09-2011, 06:14 PM
Gross publicly talks his book more than most money managers. Over the past two yrs he's been wrong about the economy, vastly underestimating its strength. He now believes once the Fed goes away (i.e., QEII ends), there will be few willing buyers for US ten yrs at a 3.47% yield. He may be right - we'll see. Personally, I suspect the long-end of the curve moves higher over the next six months to reflect higher inflationary expectations and better economic growth.

The 10-yr in Japan yields only 1.31%, but most of Japan's financing needs are internally funded (that may change, but many a hedge fund has been burned making that bet over time). The German 10-yr yields 3.29%.

Robert Goren
03-09-2011, 07:42 PM
I don't trust hedge fund managers especially the ones at PIMCO. They are not above using statements like this to influence the markets. If you listen CNBC all day long you find plenty of people with differing views. It is when they all agree, that you can act. When they all agree, they are almost always wrong. In August of last year they were all say the market was in for a 15% correction. They got 15% right, but got the direction wrong.

lamboguy
03-09-2011, 08:57 PM
while pimco was dropping the chineese were swapping. swapping out of short term and going into long term.

dollar still the reserve currency, not dead just yet.

Saratoga_Mike
03-09-2011, 09:09 PM
I don't believe Bill Gross runs any hedge fund products. He runs a large fixed-income shop. PIMCO is a large complex, so perhaps they have some hedge fund products, but I don't think Gross personally oversees them.

Saratoga_Mike
03-09-2011, 09:18 PM
while pimco was dropping the chineese were swapping. swapping out of short term and going into long term.

dollar still the reserve currency, not dead just yet.

As of Dec 31, 2010, China held $1.16 trillion in treasuries, but don't forget that Japan held $882 billion and had been a bigger net buyer in the past six months than the Chinese. Only 15% of overall foreign holdings were in t-bills, with the balance in longer-dated notes and bonds.

Valuist
03-09-2011, 09:48 PM
The TBT is the play when the Treasuries bubble bursts.

DJofSD
05-06-2011, 08:23 PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PIMCO-would-only-buy-rb-3296634525.html?x=0