To beyer or not to beyer

[misscashalot]

I watch NYRA racing and listen to the guys run the field and make choices prior to the race and everything is based on byers. I wonder what % of players use beyers as the prime foundation for making their choices.

[cj]

I would hardly say all the horses are based on Beyers. A tool, sure, but not even close to the only factor.

[misscashalot]

I would hardly say all the horses are based on Beyers. A tool, sure, but not even close to the only factor.

are you saying about the guys or yourself? They always do.
But thats not what my question is.

[the little guy]

are you saying about the guys or yourself? They always do.
But thats not what my question is.


You are completely full of sh it.

Then again, that's old news.

[ronsmac]

Speed figures are the most over rated factor in horse racing. Pace , trips and trainer angles are at least 3 times more effective.

[misscashalot]

You are completely full of sh it.

Then again, that's old news.


youre off base i wasnt criticising you need help

[misscashalot]

Speed figures are the most over rated factor in horse racing. Pace , trips and trainer angles are at least 3 times more effective.

and for me it's the board. :ThmbUp:

[the little guy]

youre off base i wasnt criticising you need help


Let's go through today's card and the pick's Eric Donovan and I gave out on the show today...

1st - we both picked #4 Galaxy Rush - 4th highest last race Beyer ( out of 6 ) and that was his career top

2nd - Eric picked the winner, who had a standout Beyer, and I picked # 4 Victory for V L Ts who had the fourth best Beyer figs out of six runners.

3rd - Eric took #3 River Fancy, who had the 5th best last out Beyer of seven runners, and is clearly slower overall on figs. I took #5 Eager Emma, who has the third highest last out Beyer, and is moderately competitive overall in figs, though clearly inferior to #7 Zaphyra on figs.

4th - We both took Bob's Dylan who has the second best last out Beyers and is in the mix on speed figures overall.

5th - We both took Judicial Leader, who has the 4th best last out Beyer of eight runners, and overall is far from the fastest on the figs.

6th - We both took Redwood Falls who is 4th of 6 runners on figs.

7th - I took Lofty Banner, who does have the best last out Beyer fig, and Eric took Dorian Will who is last of seven on his last two figs.

8th - We both took heavy favorite #7 Saginaw who has the best figs.

9th - I took #1 Donna Ala who has the 4th best fig, out of nine, and Eric took #3 Montessori, who has the 2nd best figs. We both picked against the top fig, and likely favorite, #6 Shalaka.



Like I said, you are completely full of sh it.

[misscashalot]

Let's go through today's card and the pick's Eric Donovan and I gave out on the show today...

1st - we both picked #4 Galaxy Rush - 4th highest last race Beyer ( out of 6 ) and that was his career top

2nd - Eric picked the winner, who had a standout Beyer, and I picked # 4 Victory for V L Ts who had the fourth best Beyer figs out of six runners.

3rd - Eric took #3 River Fancy, who had the 5th best last out Beyer of seven runners, and is clearly slower overall on figs. I took #5 Eager Emma, who has the third highest last out Beyer, and is moderately competitive overall in figs, though clearly inferior to #7 Zaphyra on figs.

4th - We both took Bob's Dylan who has the second best last out Beyers and is in the mix on speed figures overall.

5th - We both took Judicial Leader, who has the 4th best last out Beyer of eight runners, and overall is far from the fastest on the figs.

6th - We both took Redwood Falls who is 4th of 6 runners on figs.

7th - I took Lofty Banner, who does have the best last out Beyer fig, and Eric took Dorian Will who is last of seven on his last two figs.

8th - We both took heavy favorite #7 Saginaw who has the best figs.

9th - I took #1 Donna Ala who has the 4th best fig, out of nine, and Eric took #3 Montessori, who has the 2nd best figs. We both picked against the top fig, and likely favorite, #6 Shalaka.



Like I said, you are completely full of sh it.

I said your picks are based on beyers. i didnt say you picked the highest. you admit yourself that beyers are your foundation see your post above
i didnt criticise you and you really need help

[MaTH716]

are you saying about the guys or yourself? They always do.
But thats not what my question is.

That couldn't be further from the truth. If anything they go out of the way to explain about horses with questionable beyers that might be a play or play against.
Also when you think about it, wouldn't a show like Trips and Traps be an absolute waste of everyone time (including theirs) if all they did were tout horses with the highest Beyers?

[misscashalot]

That couldn't be further from the truth. If anything they go out of the way to explain about horses with questionable beyers that might be a play or play against.
Also when you think about it, wouldn't a show like Trips and Traps be an absolute waste of everyone time (including theirs) if all they did were tout horses with the highest Beyers?
yes they do talk about questionable beyers dont they

[MaTH716]

yes they do talk about questionable beyers dont they

What about trips and traps? What about track biases? What about trainer changes? Have you ever heard them talk about these things? Do they count for nothing?

[misscashalot]

I watch NYRA racing and listen to the guys run the field and make choices prior to the race and everything is based on byers. I wonder what % of players use beyers as the prime foundation for making their choices.
-----------------------

I wonder what % of players use beyers as the prime foundation for making their choices.

[misscashalot]

thanks andy for not talking beyers when you got to We Need VLTs race.

[the little guy]

thanks andy for not talking beyers when you got to We Need VLTs race.

You have quite the high opinion of yourself. Why I will never know.

Nobody will.

[Tom]

I said your picks are based on beyers. i didnt say you picked the highest. you admit yourself that beyers are your foundation see your post above

Say what? :confused:

[speed]

Say what? :confused:
The look on the monkey's face says it well.

[freddymo]

I watch NYRA racing and listen to the guys run the field and make choices prior to the race and everything is based on byers. I wonder what % of players use beyers as the prime foundation for making their choices.

What's your point? You make a trolling comment about the only decent racing show, and then attack Beyers. Beyers measure speed, its called racing , hence speed is paramount in decision making. If you have followed Serling you would know that he is best known for trip handicapping. Have you seen the show Trips and Traps? Perhaps watching it will clue you in to what Serling is best known for.

As for Beyers and there significance, get the book!

[classhandicapper]

I'm not even sure I understand the conflict in this thread. :confused:

I take the original question as asking how many people specifically use Beyer figures as a core factor in estimating a horse's ability as opposed to various versions of "class handicapping", "velocity ratings", other types of speed and pace figures, race shape analysis, etc... that have nothing to do with Beyer figures.

I think it's well understood that few if any people that use Beyer figures simply bet the best last Beyer. People look at the figures in light of various combinations of pace, trip, bias, competition, distance, surface and other factors and often bet slower horses etc... But at the core of the analysis is still a Beyer speed figure.

However, some people don't use Beyer speed figures at all (or any speed figures of any kind for that matter) and still do well. That's the issue he is raising.

[misscashalot]

I'm not even sure I understand the conflict in this thread. :confused:

I take the original question as asking how many people specifically use Beyer figures as a core factor in estimating a horse's ability as opposed to various versions of "class handicapping", "velocity ratings", other types of speed and pace figures, race shape analysis, etc... that have nothing to do with Beyer figures.

I think it's well understood that few if any people that use Beyer figures simply bet the best last Beyer. People look at the figures in light of various combinations of pace, trip, bias, competition, distance, surface and other factors and often better slower horses etc... But at the core is still a Beyer speed figure.

However, some people don't use Beyer speed figures at all (or any speed figures of any kind for that matter) and still do well. That's the question.

There is no conflict unfortunately some people here did not read the question; instead they got up tight in response to andy's aromatic snit
who likewise never got to the question.
The question still remains unanswered.

I wonder what % of players use beyers as the prime foundation for making their choices.
__________________

[the little guy]

I watch NYRA racing and listen to the guys run the field and make choices prior to the race and everything is based on byers. I wonder what % of players use beyers as the prime foundation for making their choices.


Here is the original post in the thread. It is a lie. A complete lie. I don't know why he told it and don't have any interest in guessing what led to this utter distortion of the truth. However, it is a total misrepresentation of the truth.

Now, if he wanted to ask his second sentence, which does seem like a reasonable discussion, why not just ask that question? The first sentence was completely superfluous to the point he now wants to pretend was HIS ENTIRE ARGUMENT. So, if this was the case, why make up his initial sentence?

Like I said, I don't know, or care, what the answer is to that question. But, I do know what he did.

[rastajenk]

Another way of asking that is what percent still uses the Form, inasmuch as that's where the Beyers are. And my guess would be a pretty low percent.

Ten years ago I was in a position that involved Form sales on track. It was all very predictable over time; previous years' sales and attendance for the date provided for the most reliable trends in all of racing. :D There were definite correlations in the numbers I tracked. I forget now exactly what some of the ratios were, but something like 10-15 % of program sales was the Form number; sounds about right, . So if we sold 1000 programs, we might have sold 100, 120 Forms; attendance would have been less than 2000 for something like that. There would have been some sold locally off-track, but it's not many, either.

But that was early in the intertubes era. I know some people who came out to the track were downloading pp's then, but not a lot. So it could easily be different today, but not necessarily in an upward trend.

And even then you have to guess at what percent of Form buyers use Beyers, which lowers the rate even more. Any way you slice it, misscashalot, I think the answer to your question is, very few.

[misscashalot]

And even then you have to guess at what percent of Form buyers use Beyers, which lowers the rate even more. Any way you slice it, misscashalot, I think the answer to your question is, very few.
Thanks for your answer According to your sales, your answer makes sense.
I'm surprised. I'd have thought the opposite.

[Spiderman]

You are completely full of sh it.

Then again, that's old news.
I listened to your ranting selections, last year. Mostly, it's your colleagues who over-emphasive Beyer #s.

[Spiderman]

There is no conflict unfortunately some people here did not read the question; instead they got up tight in response to andy's aromatic snit
who likewise never got to the question.
The question still remains unanswered.

I wonder what % of players use beyers as the prime foundation for making their choices.
__________________

I am glad to play against people who make Beyer #s a primary tool. I use brisnet for the superior information provided.

[Cardus]

youre off base i wasnt criticising you need help

Psychologically or as a handicapper? Or both?

[bigmack]

I listened to your ranting selections, last year. Mostly, it's your colleagues who over-emphasive Beyer #s.
Why a comma after selections and how does one over-emphasive?

[Spiderman]

Why a comma after selections and how does one over-emphasive?

Glad to answer. The (,) separates the two thoughts: ranting selections and the time, last year. The emphasis of the sentence is: ranting selections. Otherwise, I would have written: Last year, I listened to your ranting selections. The comma is in the sentence, either way.

Emphasis would be sufficient. However, I recall that tlg and his colleagues, collectively, would mention Beyer #s in every race and it became overkill.

I no longer play nyra because the races are not on njbets. More than half the time, I hit the mute button when the talking-heads are on at any venue.

[thaskalos]

More than half the time, I hit the mute button when the talking-heads are on at any venue.IMO...Andy Serling is the most knowledgeable horse racing analyst around.

All the racing circuits should be lucky enough to have someone like him...

[Spiderman]

IMO...Andy Serling is the most knowledgeable horse racing analyst around.

All the racing circuits should be lucky enough to have someone like him...
I don't disagree with that. He does think out-of-the-box and disdains favorites.

[Robert Goren]

You asked people at the track or simulcast center and most will say they never use them. The horses with the highest Beyer's sure do get bet a lot for something nobody uses. In most races the favorite and the the last race high Beyer's are the same horse. Horses moving in class are sometimes the exception. Even then they are second or third choice. It very rare for a horse with 5 point advantage last race Beyer's to go off at 5/1 or higher. I think they get bet more than people willing admit to.

[big frank]

I rarely agree with Andy's picks, but i always give them a second look and respect his take on a race. The Beyer numbers are a great tool for narrowing down the contenders , not as a stand alone factor. Pace does affect the numbers from race to race, Best of luck

[bigmack]

I watch NYRA racing and listen to the guys run the field and make choices prior to the race and everything is based on byers.
How 'bout if you rescind your take on them basing 'everything' on Beyer's and the thread can possibly move forward to address your inquiry?

Do you honestly expect anyone to say they base their entire decision on Beyer figs or do you have an ulterior agenda?

[freddymo]

How 'bout if you rescind your take on them basing 'everything' on Beyer's and the thread can possibly move forward to address your inquiry?

Do you honestly expect anyone to say they base their entire decision on Beyer figs or do you have an ulterior agenda?

He is a troll who passively gets his rock off while hiding behind a respectable topic.

[JustRalph]

Andy, you are starting to grow on me.

Why does that bother me ? :lol:

[dav4463]

The Beyers are a great tool. I use them. It depends on "how" you use them as to whether or not they "work".

[exiles]

I rarely agree with Andy's picks, but i always give them a second look and respect his take on a race. The Beyer numbers are a great tool for narrowing down the contenders , not as a stand alone factor. Pace does affect the numbers from race to race, Best of luck


I always listen to THE LITTLE GUY run down the races at the NYRA tracks , best way to narrow a race down just throw out the ones he likes,works like a charm.

[JustRalph]

I always listen to THE LITTLE GUY run down the races at the NYRA tracks , best way to narrow a race down just throw out the ones he likes,works like a charm.

So, you had the $42 dollar horse in the 4th then?

[fast4522]

I stopped looking st speed figures years ago, the computer looks at them as part of a formulation of which line to use but its the other factors get my attention. The Beyer number by itself, hell no because anything home made will be better than that out of the can number.

[Cardus]

I stopped looking st speed figures years ago, the computer looks at them as part of a formulation of which line to use but its the other factors get my attention. The Beyer number by itself, hell no because anything home made will be better than that out of the can number.

What's the difference between you making figures at home -- if that is correct -- and, let's say, Mark Hopkins making figures in an office or at a racetrack?

[KidCapper]

I was just thinking we hadn't had a 47 page thread over Beyer figures in at least a week.....Carry-on!! :D

[gm10]

Nothing wrong with using BSF imo. They aren't the best around (the ones you make yourself are the best), but nonetheless they are good enough.

Of course the top last BSF gets overbet. Nothing wrong with that, though. If one horse is overbet, others will be underbet.

[PhantomOnTour]

If you were Beyer what would you have done? Tell the world about them and sell lots of books, then get a deal to publish them in DRF (wonder how much that pays), or shut up and bet?

If Andy hadn't written the book someone else would have and we'd be getting their figs in DRF.
Be it Beyers, BRIS, Quirin or homemade...i would venture a guess that the overwhelming majority of winning players use speed figs (or their computer programs utilize/analyze speed figs) in their handicapping.

[Cardus]

Nothing wrong with using BSF imo. They aren't the best around (the ones you make yourself are the best), but nonetheless they are good enough.

Of course the top last BSF gets overbet. Nothing wrong with that, though. If one horse is overbet, others will be underbet.

I'm not going to get too far into the weeds with you on this, but what is the difference between Andy Beyer's figures and your -- or anyone else's -- figures from a production and reliability standpoint?

From the way you phrased it -- what I highlighted above -- supposes that anyone who makes his own figures has inherently better figures than Beyer.

I'd make the same argument if we were discussing Len Ragozin, Jerry Brown, or any other prominent figure maker.

Some handicappers with self-made figures might be better (I'm not arguing that the above figure makers are better than everyone else without exception), but I cannot see how a majority of self-made (i.e., non-published) figures are inherently better.

[cj]

I'm not going to get too far into the weeds with you on this, but what is the difference between Andy Beyer's figures and your -- or anyone else's -- figures from a production and reliability standpoint?

From the way you phrased it -- what I highlighted above -- supposes that anyone who makes his own figures has inherently better figures than Beyer.

I'd make the same argument if we were discussing Len Ragozin, Jerry Brown, or any other prominent figure maker.

Some handicappers with self-made figures might be better (I'm not arguing that the above figure makers are better than everyone else without exception), but I cannot see how a majority of self-made (i.e., non-published) figures are inherently better.

There are always going to be differences amongst figure makers. The value comes from the fact that Beyers are widely published, discussed, and bet.

When I disagree with Beyer, I usually find I turn out "right" more often than not...maybe 70/30. I use more sophisticated variables and don't rely on one number for the race. The big difference though is whether I am right or wrong, I get much better odds than if I agree with Beyer.

[The Bit]

The idea that any Joe can waltz into B&N, pick up Andy's books and start making even decent speed figures is a joke. Now an accomplished handicapper that knows the nuances of the track and has enough experience to know when to split variants and what races are affected by pace. Sure. But those folks are few and far between. So unless I'm purchasing numbers from a guy like CJ or someone else with a proven track record, experience and some knowledge I'll take the stock Beyer figs over some homegrown guesses any day.

I made my own for a period of time and generally, my numbers and the Beyers numbers coincided. My hopes were, as CJ said, that when they were different, it was because I knew something they didn't or I made a better educated guess and was right.

[bigmack]

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/4cookie.png

[misscashalot]

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/4cookie.png
:sleeping:

[mountainman]

I use more sophisticated variables and don't rely on one number for the race.

Are you using the term "figure" in strict reference to final time, or in some broader context that perhaps encompasses pace? And is the difference you estimate in strike rates based on a straight up number to number comparison? Or is some judgement included on your end of the equation?

[cj]

Are you using the term "figure" in strict reference to final time, or in some broader context that perhaps encompasses pace? And is the difference you estimate in strike rates based on a straight up number to number comparison? Or is some judgement included on your end of the equation?

When I compare my number to Beyer, I'm talking strictly speed figure. However, I never use my speed figures alone as the basis for bets.

Most times I disagree with Beyer it has to do with a very slow or very fast pace. When Beyer breaks out a race, the problem he has is that it treats every horse the same in the race. Extreme paces usually treat horses completely different depending on early position.

[mountainman]

When I compare my number to Beyer, I'm talking strictly speed figure. However, I never use my speed figures alone as the basis for bets.

Most times I disagree with Beyer it has to do with a very slow or very fast pace. When Beyer breaks out a race, the problem he has is that it treats every horse the same in the race. Extreme paces usually treat horses completely different depending on early position.

Tx for clarifying. I've heard that you make good numbers. And a bsf IS simply an adjusted representation (sophisticated or not) of final time. To me, how a race unfolded and under what circumstances a figure was earned are more important. Context is everything. But that's a much longer discussion, and it's not my intention to reroute the thread. Besides, we aren't reinventing the wheel. Most good handicappers would agree that gauging performance entails much more than measuring final time.

[Cardus]

There are always going to be differences amongst figure makers. The value comes from the fact that Beyers are widely published, discussed, and bet.

When I disagree with Beyer, I usually find I turn out "right" more often than not...maybe 70/30. I use more sophisticated variables and don't rely on one number for the race. The big difference though is whether I am right or wrong, I get much better odds than if I agree with Beyer.

That's fine. I disagree with the "casual dismissal"-type posts.

[BCOURTNEY]

This is a bad idea if your trying to actually make money. Profitable players spend their time trying to handicap when the other players have made a mistake in the odds line. The remaining 98% of the public spend a lifetime refining a selection system trying to figure out who the winning horses of the race will be, instead of trying to handicap when the other players have made a mistake and error in odds, which is not very often. I vote change your game, it's not about picking winners. It's about picking the winners when no one else is looking. Byers are looked at quite a bit.

Cheers

I watch NYRA racing and listen to the guys run the field and make choices prior to the race and everything is based on byers. I wonder what % of players use beyers as the prime foundation for making their choices.

[cj]

Most good handicappers would agree that gauging performance entails much more than measuring final time.

Right. The problem with Beyer is that sometimes they try to make the number more than final time, and other times they don't. Someone just buying a DRF and using the numbers doesn't know the details or when this was done.

[bigmack]

:sleeping:
Haven't you the gonads to admit you were wrong?

[Solid_Gold]

What if we go back in time, before the Beyers? Maybe using the Telegraph's/DRF's speed ratings is the way to go? One would like to believe that history repeats itself, but does it?

Say if a horse has run a 95 speed figure in the past will it ever be able to run that in the future? Let's say the horse ran that at 6F, what could he run at 7F or even 5F?
Speed figs.are merely a tool used as part of the whole picture while considering distance, sex&age, current condition, class, trainers and jocks too, IMO. I'm not all that sure that whatever speed figs you use makes much difference anyways. Whether they are Beyer, Bris, Equibase, the DRF or even your own. Every race is it's own separate puzzle.

That's my .02

[JustRalph]

I stopped looking st speed figures years ago, the computer looks at them as part of a formulation of which line to use but its the other factors get my attention. The Beyer number by itself, hell no because anything home made will be better than that out of the can number.

I gotta tell you. I found it hard as hell to make my own speed figures. I got together with a few guys on this site and I lasted about a week. I couldn't keep up with them. I was so out of my element that I just plain had to admit that I was adding nothing to the group.

In that light, I admire anybody that can make them and they have any value at all. I don't normally use Beyers, because I use Bris products. But there is no way you can say the Beyer#'s don't have value. They wouldn't have lasted this long if they didn't.

I know the nuances of the Bris figures, and I am sure that everybody adjusts to whatever they are using. This adjustment is the key, no matter where you get the data.

[gm10]

I'm not going to get too far into the weeds with you on this, but what is the difference between Andy Beyer's figures and your -- or anyone else's -- figures from a production and reliability standpoint?


Production ... par times, DTV calculation, weight considerations. From my own point of view, I weigh each section of a race differently when calculating a speed figure. The weights are both a function of track profile and race shape. Some will say that they aren't speed figures anymore, that's fine with me. (I think they are, they are based on speed anyway.)

Reliability ... they only pick as many winners as BSF. The key however is that they pick DIFFERENT winners than BSF.

From the way you phrased it -- what I highlighted above -- supposes that anyone who makes his own figures has inherently better figures than Beyer.

I'd make the same argument if we were discussing Len Ragozin, Jerry Brown, or any other prominent figure maker.

Some handicappers with self-made figures might be better (I'm not arguing that the above figure makers are better than everyone else without exception), but I cannot see how a majority of self-made (i.e., non-published) figures are inherently better.

I'm not arguing that they are necessarily better in terms of picking winners, but they are better in the sense you fully understand then, and in the sense that they are unique. If they are right often enough when others are wrong, they can be profitable.

Another major advantage is that you can use them to make predictive ratings, which increases the % of winners by 4-5% compared to, say, "last top fig". In a dirt sprint, a decent predictive rating will pick 35-36% winners.

[fast4522]

What I mean is if I were to use a final speed figure to make the choice of who to bet I probably would send CJ a email to see if I could subscribe with him. But I do not view the final speed figure for betting or use the Formulator product. The game is all about value, if you do not look for it you chances of getting it are slim.

[098poi]

You asked people at the track or simulcast center and most will say they never use them. The horses with the highest Beyer's sure do get bet a lot for something nobody uses. In most races the favorite and the the last race high Beyer's are the same horse. Horses moving in class are sometimes the exception. Even then they are second or third choice. It very rare for a horse with 5 point advantage last race Beyer's to go off at 5/1 or higher. I think they get bet more than people willing admit to.

I think this is probably the closest to reality as far as the second part of the posters original question. If someone has the gumption, check five days of racing at Aq, keep track of the two horses with the highest last out Beyers and then keep track of the favorites and see how many coincide. Shouldn't be hard to figure if there is a high impact value for the result. (I don't use Formulator much or I would do it, I don't have an active subscription right now)

As far as the first part of the posters question

"I watch NYRA racing and listen to the guys run the field and make choices prior to the race and everything is based on byers. I wonder what % of players use beyers as the prime foundation for making their choices."


dumb, dumb dumb and designed to ruffle feathers.

[shouldacoulda]

I believe that perception is reality. If you perceive something to be true then it is. We all tend to perceive things differently. Do they mention Beyers figs a lot on Trips and Traps? Yes. Is it what they base the majority of their picks on? Not in my opinion. I believe they do mention Beyers frequently as it is almost universally understood by the majority of the betting public.
To answer your question, no I don't base my handicapping on them. They are just like any other tool. Using one tool to handicap a race would be the equivalent of trying to fix every broken thing with a hammer. :)

As for Andy Serling. I have to say, he has been at this game a long time and in my opinion loves the game. You don't get to where he is talking about Beyer figures alone.

[bigmack]

Speaking of The Big Shoe (National Racing Report) I was thrilled to see the camera person has found the zoom button. It helps to rid the impression the boys are sitting at a desk as high as that of the one found in The Twilight Zone episode,The Obsolete Man starring Burgess Meridith (Women weaken legs!)

I do what I can to hep. :rolleyes:

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/3_10_11_17_51_12.jpg

[Fastracehorse]

I gotta tell you. I found it hard as hell to make my own speed figures. I got together with a few guys on this site and I lasted about a week. I couldn't keep up with them. I was so out of my element that I just plain had to admit that I was adding nothing to the group.

In that light, I admire anybody that can make them and they have any value at all. I don't normally use Beyers, because I use Bris products. But there is no way you can say the Beyer#'s don't have value. They wouldn't have lasted this long if they didn't.

I know the nuances of the Bris figures, and I am sure that everybody adjusts to whatever they are using. This adjustment is the key, no matter where you get the data.

.......in a sense; U adjust Bris data.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

I'm not going to get too far into the weeds with you on this, but what is the difference between Andy Beyer's figures and your -- or anyone else's -- figures from a production and reliability standpoint?

From the way you phrased it -- what I highlighted above -- supposes that anyone who makes his own figures has inherently better figures than Beyer.

I'd make the same argument if we were discussing Len Ragozin, Jerry Brown, or any other prominent figure maker.

Some handicappers with self-made figures might be better (I'm not arguing that the above figure makers are better than everyone else without exception), but I cannot see how a majority of self-made (i.e., non-published) figures are inherently better.

....you are not.

I would agree that you aren't going to improve too much on the Beyer if you wanted to measure the 'same thing'.

That 'same thing' is pretty much a variant-adjusted time traveling from point A to B.

What if the horse was steadied hard in the lane? Costing him a placing.

Do you think the published Beyer adjusts for this? This is one way you can utilize a popular figure and have it be different than the published # - make an adjustment.

There are many ways to do this. I can have a horse that actually ran 40 points better than was published; that has utility.

fffastt

[classhandicapper]

Most times I disagree with Beyer it has to do with a very slow or very fast pace. When Beyer breaks out a race, the problem he has is that it treats every horse the same in the race. Extreme paces usually treat horses completely different depending on early position.

I bet I've spent a week of my life making that point when you add up all the time it took for me to compose and type every post. :bang:

[thaskalos]

I'm not going to get too far into the weeds with you on this, but what is the difference between Andy Beyer's figures and your -- or anyone else's -- figures from a production and reliability standpoint?

From the way you phrased it -- what I highlighted above -- supposes that anyone who makes his own figures has inherently better figures than Beyer.

I'd make the same argument if we were discussing Len Ragozin, Jerry Brown, or any other prominent figure maker.

Some handicappers with self-made figures might be better (I'm not arguing that the above figure makers are better than everyone else without exception), but I cannot see how a majority of self-made (i.e., non-published) figures are inherently better.When Andy Beyer first introduced his figures to the world, he was under the assumption that speed was "the way, the truth and the light"...and he totally disregarded pace and class as major factors in the handicapping of a race.

Beyer's mind has changed radically, of course...but his figures have NOT!

As a result, many handicappers have long been in search of a more comprehensive type of rating, a PERFORMANCE rating so to speak...which would somehow factor pace -- and sometimes class -- into the equation.

After much effort, some of these handicappers have created their own "homemade" figures, which -- in their opinion -- better reflect the "totality" of a horse's performance...giving them BOTH, an accuracy AND a value advantage over the more popular one-dimensional figures.

[gm10]

When Andy Beyer first introduced his figures to the world, he was under the assumption that speed was "the way, the truth and the light"...and he totally disregarded pace and class as major factors in the handicapping of a race.

Beyer's mind has changed radically, of course...but his figures have NOT!

As a result, many handicappers have long been in search of a more comprehensive type of rating, a PERFORMANCE rating so to speak...which would somehow factor pace -- and sometimes class -- into the equation.

After much effort, some of these handicappers have created their own "homemade" figures, which -- in their opinion -- better reflect the "totality" of a horse's performance...giving them BOTH, an accuracy AND a value advantage over the more popular one-dimensional figures.

There seems to be a lot of confusion regarding PERFORMANCE RATINGS. They are not more comprehensive speed ratings. They do not take into account pace, on the contrary, they strip out the pace factor.

[thaskalos]

There seems to be a lot of confusion regarding PERFORMANCE RATINGS. They are not more comprehensive speed ratings. They do not take into account pace, on the contrary, they strip out the pace factor.Not all PERFORMANCE RATINGS are the same...

[gm10]

Not all PERFORMANCE RATINGS are the same...

Performance ratings are not speed based. Anybody can still call their speed ratings 'performance ratings', I guess, but the name has already been taken essentially.

[thaskalos]

Performance ratings are not speed based. Anybody can still call their speed ratings 'performance ratings', I guess, but the name has already been taken essentially.Taken by whom?

In his book HANDICAPPING BY EXAMPLE, William Quirin presents a method for calculating "performance ratings"...and they have plenty to do with speed and pace.

Would it please you if I called them COMBINATION RATINGS instead?

[gm10]

Taken by whom?

In his book HANDICAPPING BY EXAMPLE, William Quirin presents a method of calculating "performance ratings"...and they have plenty to do with speed and pace.

Would it please you if I called them COMBINATION RATINGS instead?

Many authors (Dickinson, Mordin, Potts, ...) refer to performance ratings as something else. Funnily enough Beyer uses the performance rating approach when calculating his track variants.

[cj]

Many authors (Dickinson, Mordin, Potts, ...) refer to performance ratings as something else. Funnily enough Beyer uses the performance rating approach when calculating his track variants.

People can call them whatever they like, especially since none of those are US based. Why should we care what they call them?

[gm10]

People can call them whatever they like, especially since none of those are US based. Why should we care what they call them?

Who is 'we'?

I am not sure why you should care. Admittedly, I usually care very little about the names of things myself. However, and this must be said, having a name for things often helps to avoid confusion.

[cj]

Ok, why is whatever the three you quoted supposed to be the accepted version of a Performance Figure?

[gm10]

Ok, why is whatever the three you quoted supposed to be the accepted version of a Performance Figure?

Performance RATING.

If they all call it that (as do other authors), then I assume that's what the word is. You read something often enough, it always has a name, you assume that's what it's called. I guess it has become convention.

[Tom]

I made Quirin style speed ratings from about 1977 on and always called them performance ratings because I modified the figure with the par at first, then added the pace rating into the mix once he came out with his next book;)

Speed fig = 100
Par = 96
PF = 98

That was it.