NCAA basketball - here we go

[RXB]

Things really start getting interesting tonight. Old Dominion versus VCU for the Colonial title, and St. Mary's/Gonzaga for the West Coast Conference title.

Bubble teams are praying for an Old Dominion win as the Monarchs would still be a a virtual lock for the NCAA's if they lose, while VCU would be considered for an at-large but more likely out than in should they lose. Either St. Mary's or Gonzaga will receive serious at-large consideration but neither would be a lock, although I think St. Mary's would have the stronger chance of getting invited. Both would have a better chance than VCU.

[cj]

The bubble teams are so bad this year it really has become a joke.

[slew101]

Villanova is 5-9 in its last 14 games, and even with a loss in its first Big East game, likely will still get in.

And I don't care how good Michigan State's tourney history is, they are 17-13 and should not be anywhere near the NCAA tournament unless they make it to the conference final.

The bubble teams are so bad this year it really has become a joke.

[slew101]

What about George Mason at 26-6? Bad loss to VCU in the semifinals. Think they have a shot at an at-large bid?

Things really start getting interesting tonight. Old Dominion versus VCU for the Colonial title, and St. Mary's/Gonzaga for the West Coast Conference title.

Bubble teams are praying for an Old Dominion win as the Monarchs would still be a a virtual lock for the NCAA's if they lose, while VCU would be considered for an at-large but more likely out than in should they lose. Either St. Mary's or Gonzaga will receive serious at-large consideration but neither would be a lock, although I think St. Mary's would have the stronger chance of getting invited. Both would have a better chance than VCU.

[RXB]

George Mason is almost assuredly in.

[BlueShoe]

First we have to ho hum through the virtually meaningless conference tournaments, which most believe is a waste of time. The teams with good records have already punched their tickets and the bubble teams are not likely to enhance their chances. :sleeping:

[cj's dad]

In my opinion of watching these tournaments since Hector was a pup, which is a thousand years ago, how many other than top 10 teams have won the NCAA final ?? I really don't know and don't care to look it up but I would wager one or two at most; and if that is the case, I bet they were in the top 20.

This tourney is enjoyable but when the first 11 thru 16 seed wins, I'll be impressed!

This post is not intended to put a damper on those of you who love the tourney, but it is just not realistic.

The last time I remeber a lower ranked team advancing was Cleveland State vs. the U.S. Naval Academy when David Robinson played.

Damn, I'm really getting old !!!

[RXB]

Here's how it see it. Let's see how I do.


GUARANTEED BIDS:
Ohio St - 1
Kansas -1
Duke – 1
San Diego St – 2
Kentucky – 2
Connecticut - 3
Old Dominion - 7
Utah St – 8
Richmond - 9
Washington - 9
Gonzaga - 10
Butler - 10
Memphis - 11
Belmont - 13
Oakland - 13
Princeton - 13
Wofford – 13
Bucknell - 14
Indiana St - 14
UNC-Asheville - 14
Long Island – 14
Boston U. - 15
Morehead St - 15
St. Peter’s - 15
N. Colorado - 15
Akron - 16
Hampton - 16
UC-Santa Barbara – 16 (play-in)
UT-San Antonio – 16 (play-in)
Arkansas-Little Rock – 16 (play-in)
Alabama St- 16 (play-in)


AT-LARGE LOCKS:
Pittsburgh – 1
Notre Dame – 2
North Carolina – 2
Florida - 3
BYU - 3
Texas - 3
Syracuse – 4
Arizona - 5
Purdue - 4
Louisville – 4
Wisconsin - 5
St. John’s - 5
West Virginia – 6
Vanderbilt - 6
Cincinnati – 6
Texas A&M – 6
UNLV - 7
Georgetown - 7
Xavier - 7
Temple - 8
George Mason - 8
UCLA - 8

NEAR-LOCKS:
Kansas St - 9
Missouri - 9

PROBABLY IN:
Tennessee - 10
Michigan - 10
Villanova - 10
Michigan St - 11
Penn St - 11
Marquette - 11

BUBBLE IN:
Colorado - 11
Illinois - 12
Florida St - 12
Clemson (play-in) - 11
St. Mary’s (play-in) - 11
USC (play-in) - 12
UAB (play-in) - 12

BUBBLE OUT:
Alabama
Georgia
Boston College
Virginia Tech
Cleveland St
VCU
Missouri St
Colorado St

[RXB]

Somehow, I have one too many 10's and 11's, and one too few 4's and 5's. Trying to do it at the last minute is tough.

[RXB]

Not bad; 31 out of 34. All three that didn't get in were within my seven bubble-in teams and two of them were in my play-in group, i.e. last four in. And my eight bubble-outs contained all three that did get in.

[RXB]

God, I need more sleep. USC is in, not out; so I got 32/34.

[slew101]

Interesting stat on ESPN. The last 25 years of the tournament, there were 6 teams total with 14 or more losses, and those were likely automatic bids from a conference tournament upset.

This year, six teams with 14 losses, and all at-large bids?

A total joke. Why not let teams in at 17-16 next year.

St. Mary's goes 25-8, makes the conference final and gets denied a bid? This after making the Sweet 16 last year? For what? So Tennessee, Marquette and a bunch of 14-loss teams can lose in the first round?

[RXB]

God, I need more sleep. USC is in, not out; so I got 32/34.

Make that 35/37. Still thinking about the 34 at-large total that ruled until this year.

St. Mary's exclusion doesn't surprise me at all; I only had them as a play-in. They beat St. John's in their 2nd game for their only good OOC win, didn't play all that well down the stretch and got thrashed by Gonzaga in the title game. The WCC was not strong at all this year. When Utah St was only rated a 12-seed, which surprised me, I knew that St. Mary's was a goner as they lost by 10 at home to USU late in the year.

[highnote]

Here are my ratings through end of day March 13.

Good luck!

Ohio St. 1064.8
San Diego St. 1060.5
Kansas 1051.5
Utah St. 1046.2
Duke 1045.1
Belmont 1042.3
BYU 1036.4
Kentucky 1036.2
Texas 1032.6
Pittsburgh 1030.1
New Orleans 1028.4
George Mason 1026.8
Xavier 1026.6
North Carolina 1025.8
Old Dominion 1022.1
Oakland 1021
Harvard 1020.1
Long Island 1020
Florida 1018.6
Coastal Carolina 1018.3
Butler 1018
Gonzaga 1017.4
Princeton 1017.2
Notre Dame 1017
Temple 1016.1
UNLV 1016
Wisconsin 1015.6
Purdue 1014.7
Connecticut 1013.4
Morehead St. 1013.4
Richmond 1012.5
Louisville 1010.1
Bucknell 1009.6
Syracuse 1009.6
UAB 1009
Wichita St. 1007
Arizona 1006.5
Arkansas-Monticello 1005.2
Tougaloo 1005.2
New Mexico 1005
Wofford 1004.4
Texas College 1002.8
UTEP 1002.7
Murray St. 1002
Iona 1001.6
Kansas St. 1000.9
Washington 1000.4
Missouri St. 999.7
St. John's 999.5
Cleveland St. 999.3
Northern Colorado 998.6
Cincinnati 998.5
Texas A&M 997.1
Vanderbilt 995.9
Tenn. Wesleyan 995.4
Tuskegee 995.3
St. Mary's 995
West Virginia 994
Methodist 993.9
Queens College 993.8
VCU 993.5
McMurry 992.7
Anderson (SC) 992.6
Marshall 992.6
Colorado-Colorado Springs 992.5
Hardin-Simmons 992.2
Oakwood 992.2
Clemson 991.7
Long Beach St. 991.4
Missouri Valley 991.4
Southern Miss 991.2
Montana-Western 991.1
North Greenville 990.9
Florida St. 990.8
Fairfield 990.6
Tusculum 990.5
UCLA 989.9
Colorado 989.7
Tennessee Tech 989.5
N.C. Asheville 989.2
Southeastern College 989.2
Texas A&M Intl 989.1
North Alabama 988.8
E. Tennessee St. 988.3
Lenoir-Rhyne 988.1
Tulsa 988
Stillman 987.7
Rider 987.4
Alabama 987.3
CSU Monterey Bay 987.3
Boise St. 986.8
Missouri 986.7
Memphis 986.6
Wiley 986.3
Hampton 986.2
Philander Smith 986
Auburn-Montgomery 985.9
Indiana St. 985.8
Susquehanna 984.5
William Jessup 984.5
Johnson and Wales 984.3
Virginia Tech 984.1
Quinnipiac 983.2
Texas Lutheran 983.1
Oral Roberts 983
Georgia 982.9
Tennessee Temple 982.8
Thomas More 982.5
Illinois 982.4
La Verne 982.4
Michigan 982.4
Akron 982.2
Charleston 982.2
Millsaps 982.2
Warner Southern 981.8
Montana 981.5
Colorado St. 981.1
Le Moyne-Owen 981
Savannah St. 980.8
USC 980.8
Northern Arizona 980.7
Penn St. 980.2
Polytechnic 980.2
MacMurray 980
Austin Peay 979.7
West Florida 979.7
Kent St. 979.5
Ky Christian 979.1
James Madison 978.9
Villanova 978.8
UCSB 978.7
Miami (FL) 978.6
Tennessee 978.6
Great Falls 978.4
Warren Wilson 978.3
St. Peter's 978.1
Valparaiso 978.1
Montana Tech 978
Chaminade 977.5
Asbury College 976.7
Wayland Baptist 976.7
UC Santa Cruz 976.6
Georgetown 976.1
American 975.7
Boston Coll. 975.4
Marquette 974.5
Hofstra 974.4
Haskell 974.1
Duquesne 974
Boston U. 973.9
Rochester (MI) 973.8
Wis. Milwaukee 973.8
Michigan St. 973.6
Drexel 973.4
UTSA 973.3
Central Conn. St. 972.9
Huston-Tillotson 972.6
Sam Houston St. 972.1
Minot State 971.8
Loyola (LA) 971.4
Nebraska 971.1
McNeese St. 970.6
South Dakota St. 970.6
UCF 970.3
Vermont 969.5
Oklahoma St. 969.4
N.C. Wesleyan 969.3
Texas-Tyler 969.3
IUPUI 968.9
San Francisco 968.8
Western St. 968.4
East Carolina 967.4
Washington St. 967.2
Allen 967.1
W. Michigan 966.9
Santa Clara 966.8
Creighton 966.3
Toccoa Falls 966.1
Idaho 965.9
Union College 965.8
Virginia Military 965.7
Mississippi 965.6
Portland 965.6
Florida Atlantic 965.5
Webber 965.5
Virginia-Wise 965.4
SMU 965.3
Oakland City 965.2
Wright St. 964.9
Dayton 964.4
Stephen F. Austin 964.4
North Texas 964.1
Furman 963.8
Robert Morris 963.6
Maryland 963.1
Seton Hall 962.1
Yale 961.9
Davidson 960.8
Weber St. 960.6
California 959.9
Arkansas St. 959.8
Western Carolina 959.7
LA Lafayette 958.8
Texas Southern 958.8
St. Gregory 958.7
Detroit 958.2
Western New Mexico 958.1
Buffalo 958
Mississippi St. 958
Northwestern 957.3
Mayville St. 957.2
Jacksonville 956.8
Rhode Island 956.8
Northern Iowa 956.6
Ohio 956.5
Reinhardt 956.5
Southern Virginia 955.8
Bethune-Cookman 955.3
Lipscomb 954.9
Vanguard 954.9
Coppin St. 954.1
Morgan St. 954
Panhandle St. 953.8
San Jose St. 953.6
Alabama St. 953.4
Geo. Washington 953.2
Central Baptist 952.9
AR Little Rock 952.3
Hawaii 952.3
Air Force 952
St. Bonaventure 951.7
Appalachian St. 951.4
Rice 951.1
Carver Bible 950.7
Ball St. 950.5
Cal Poly 950.5
North Dakota 949.9
Lehigh 949.8
North Dakota St. 949.8
Lyon 949.6
SE Louisiana 949.6
Texas St. 949.6
Baylor 949.5
Stony Brook 949
Iowa St. 948.6
Virginia 948.3
New Mexico St. 948
Liberty 947.7
Pennsylvania 947.6
Arkansas 947.3
Cornell 947.3
Mercer 947.2
Canisius 947.1
Louisiana College 947
IPFW 946.8
Loyola Chicago 946.6
Northwestern St. 946.4
Minnesota 946.3
Saint Louis 945.7
Utah 945.5
Middle Tenn. St. 945.4
North Florida 945.1
Nicholls St. 944.8
Oregon 944.8
St. Francis (NY) 944.8
Miami (OH) 944.5
Lafayette 944.1
Columbia 944
Lamar 944
Tennessee St. 943.8
N.J.I.T. 943.3
Oklahoma 943.3
Rutgers 943
Longwood 942.4
Nevada 941.7
N.C. State 941.6
Eastern Kentucky 941.2
Georgia Tech 941
Loyola (MD) 940
Jackson St. 939.8
Texas Tech 939.8
Evansville 939.1
Bradley 938.4
Pacific 938.2
Wis. Green Bay 937.6
Winthrop 937.5
Montreat 937.2
La Salle 937.1
Fresno St. 936.3
Stanford 935.9
Providence 933.7
West. Kentucky 933.5
TX Arlington 932.9
Tulane 932.6
SE Missouri St. 932.1
Denver 931.7
Albany 931.6
Northeastern 931.6
Eastern Wash. 931.3
Maine 931.3
N.C. Central 930.8
South Carolina 930.8
Brown 930.7
Delaware 930
Iowa 929.5
St. Joseph's 929.3
Elon 928.4
Holy Cross 928.4
Georgia St. 927.9
Siena 926.8
Southern Utah 926.3
N.C. A&T 925.6
UC Irvine 925.5
CSU Northridge 925.2
Arizona St. 925.1
Portland St. 924.5
Tenn-Martin 924.5
Indiana 924.3
Auburn 924
Presbyterian 924
William & Mary 923.9
Houston 923.5
Wagner 923.5
South Florida 923.2
Norfolk St. 922.4
Mount St. Mary's 921.8
UC Riverside 921.4
Gardner-Webb 920.6
Pepperdine 919.8
Grambling St. 918.8
Montana St. 918.6
Drake 918
Chattanooga 917.7
Oregon St. 917.2
Loyola Marymount 916.6
Navy 916.1
Alabama A&M 915.7
Mo. Kansas City 915.7
N.C. Wilmington 915.4
Sacred Heart 915.4
CSU Fullerton 915.3
Bowling Green 914.4
TCU 914.1
High Point 913
Miss. Valley St. 912.6
Illinois St. 910.5
Fla Gulf Coast 909.9
Southern Ill. 909.7
Troy 909.7
Wyoming 909.1
Florida Intl. 908.6
Louisiana Tech 907.4
Eastern Illinois 907.1
South Alabama 907
Cent. Michigan 906.9
St. Francis (PA) 906.9
Massachusetts 906.5
Charlotte 906.1
Jacksonville St. 904.6
Idaho St. 904.5
UC Davis 904.2
S. Carolina St. 904.1
New Hampshire 904
Hartford 903.6
N.C. Greensboro 903.2
Sacramento St. 903
Campbell 902.4
Colgate 902.1
Citadel 900.7
Army 900.1
Binghamton 899.2
Youngstown St. 899.1
LSU 898.9
MD Eastern Shore 897.6
East. Michigan 897.5
Monmouth 896.1
Delaware St. 895.6
Ill. Chicago 895.3
San Diego 895.2
Florida A&M 893.8
Prairie View A&M 892.6
Northern Illinois 892.5
DePaul 892.1
Samford 889.7
Stetson 888.2
Kennesaw St. 888
Niagara 887.4
Fordham 880.8
LA Monroe 879.6
AR Pine Bluff 877.7
Dartmouth 877.7
Marist 877
CSU Bakersfield 876.7
Towson 876.4
Wake Forest 875.3
Houston Baptist 875.1
Manhattan 874.4
Radford 873.9
Western Ill. 868.5
Fair. Dickinson 868.1
Howard 866.4
Central Arkansas 865.1
Alcorn St. 864.1
Chicago St. 862.7
Georgia Southern 858.2
Toledo 847.4
Centenary 846.4
Southern 839.6
11th Cavalry 800
Adams St. 800
Adrian 800
Alaska-Anchorage 800
Alaska-Fairbanks 800
Alice Lloyd 800
Alvernia 800
Angelo St. 800
Arkansas Tech 800
Atlanta Christian 800
Augusta St. 800
Avila 800
Belhaven College 800
Bluefield College 800
Cascade 800
Cent. Missouri St. 800
Charleston S. 800
Coker 800
Concord 800
Covenant 800
Daniel Webster 800
Geneva 800
Hanover 800
Harding 800
Harris Stowe 800
Hope International 800
Illinois-Springfield 800
Indiana Wesleyan 800
Indiana-Southeast 800
IU-SouthBend 800
John Brown 800
John Carroll 800
Johnson & Wales (FL) 800
Ky Wesleyan 800
Le Moyne 800
Lee University 800
Lees-McRae 800
LeTourneau 800
Lewis & Clark 800
Limestone 800
Linfield 800
Lock Haven 800
LSU-Shreveport 800
Manchester 800
Marygrove College 800
MD Baltimore Cty. 800
Menlo 800
Missouri St. Louis 800
Montana St.-Northern 800
Newport News 800
Northern Michigan 800
Northwest Nazarene 800
Nyack 800
Ohio Christian 800
Ohio Valley 800
Ouachita Baptist 800
Palm Beach Atlantic 800
Paul Quinn 800
Pikeville College 800
Pittsburg St. 800
Puerto Rico-Mayaguez 800
Rhema 800
Rio Grande 800
Rogers State 800
Schreiner 800
Shorter 800
Simpson University (CA) 800
Sonoma St. 800
South Carolina Upstate 800
South Carolina-Aiken 800
Southern-New Orleans 800
St. Mary's (MN) 800
St. Paul's College 800
Suffolk 800
SW Oklahoma 800
Texas A&M C.C. 800
Texas Pan Amer. 800
Texas Wesleyan 800
Tiffin 800
TX Permian Basin 800
U of the Ozarks 800
UC San Diego 800
University of Mary 800
University of the South 800
Utah Valley St. 800
Virginia Intermont 800
Wartburg 800
Washburn 800
William Carey 800
Winston-Salem 800
WV Wesleyan 800

[Rise Over Run]

Here are my ratings through end of day March 13.

Good luck!



Is this like the SATs where you are guaranteed a minimum score? Many are at 800.

[highnote]

Is this like the SATs where you are guaranteed a minimum score? Many are at 800.


800 means the team was not rated. Usually, if not always, it is a very small school. I get the scores for all the games from Yahoo sports. So if Yahoo never reports a score for a particular team then I can not rate them.

You will also notice that there might be a small school with a high rating. In general, there is no way that a small school with a high rating will beat a Division 1 school -- even if the Div 1 school is weak. So you have to do a little handicapping.

Now, if a small school gets a high rating then there is a good chance they will do very well against their own level of competition.

Likewise, the ratings of the Div 1 schools are good indicators of their ability to play against other Div 1 schools.

[melman]

My top play for the opening round is the UNDER on the Temple/Penn State game. The number is 122. I think these two teams may not combine for 100. PSU played Wisconsin and the final was under 80. :) Temple also plays a similar style. I also like but not nearly as much Belmont getting 4 1/2 from Wisconsin.

[onefast99]

Duke and Kansas are both -21 in the opening round.

[cj's dad]

This method has produced a winner in the last 5 years or so with the exception of one year - 2007 I believe.

FWIW- my plays are the 'dogs in each of these matchups:

14 over 3
13 over 4
12 over 5
11 over 6
10 over 7


in all 4 regionals via Sportsbook and playing the money line.

Total of 20 games @ $10 per = $200

Last years games produced 8 winners and I had a positive ROI.

2010:

8 wins 12 losses but with the money line wagering it was still an overall winner

East -
12 > 5 Cornell - Temple
11 > 6 Washington - Marquette
10 > 7 Missouri - Clemson
West -
13 > 4 Murray St. - Vandy
South -
11 > 6 Old Dominion - Notre Dame
10 > 7 St. Mary's (Cal) - Richmond
Midwest -
14 > 3 Ohio U. - G'town
10 > 7 Ga. Tech - OK. State

[slew101]

I wasn't going to play any games, but likely will jump in with a few plays in the first couple days. One theory I use is fading teams that usually flop in the tournament and back teams/coaches with good first round track records.

The bad: Clemson, Florida State and Tennessee. The good: Gonzaga, Texas A&M, any John Bielein-coached team (Michigan this year).

With so much outcry on VCU and UAB making the field, I think they will be extra motivated in these play-in games and both are getting 4-plus points.

This method has produced a winner in the last 5 years or so with the exception of one year - 2007 I believe.

FWIW- my plays are the 'dogs in each of these matchups:

14 over 3
13 over 4
12 over 5
11 over 6
10 over 7


in all 4 regionals via Sportsbook and playing the money line.

Total of 20 games @ $10 per = $200

Last years games produced 8 winners and I had a positive ROI.

2010:

8 wins 12 losses but with the money line wagering it was still an overall winner

East -
12 > 5 Cornell - Temple
11 > 6 Washington - Marquette
10 > 7 Missouri - Clemson
West -
13 > 4 Murray St. - Vandy
South -
11 > 6 Old Dominion - Notre Dame
10 > 7 St. Mary's (Cal) - Richmond
Midwest -
14 > 3 Ohio U. - G'town
10 > 7 Ga. Tech - OK. State

[slew101]

VCU gets a nice win over a terrible USC team, one of those teams with 14 losses that got an at-large bid. :bang:

VCU's win takes some heat off the selection committee after Tuesday's horrific effort by UAB, which looked like they didn't belong in any post-season tournament in an embarrassing 70-52 loss to Clemson, which didn't even play well and still won by 18.

Don't like much on Thursday, but will play Gonzaga +1.5 over St. John's just for some action.

[JustRalph]

and you can watch every game free on your ipad.......... using a fee app.

I predict the servers go down........ multiple times

[eastie]

Bucknell over Uconn
Morehead st over Louisville
Woffard over BYU


3 team ML Round Robin on Georgia, Memphis, Belmont

[OTM Al]

Bucknell over Uconn
Morehead st over Louisville
Woffard over BYU


3 team ML Round Robin on Georgia, Memphis, Belmont

You might get one of those on straight win and I probably wouldn't even take most of them with points.

[RXB]

Morehead St takes out Louisville. Eastie's off to a good start.

[dav4463]

I picked Wofford over BYU and Oakland over Texas, but didn't see Morehead State winning. What a finish!

[slew101]

Couple plays on Friday.

Michigan +2
Texas A&M -1

[rastajenk]

Michigan +2Wow, Tennessee quit like few teams ever have. Glad I'm not a Volunteer fan.

[OTM Al]

Wow, Tennessee quit like few teams ever have. Glad I'm not a Volunteer fan.

Thought Tennessee had gotten their act back together, but evidently not. That is not a good Michigan team. The Vols are going to have problems for years.

[Zippy Chippy]

MASON!! What a comeback by GM today.

[slew101]

Now I know why I play very small on the NCAAs. Take the UCLA-Florida game. No action for me on it, but UCLA +6.5 is in the game the entire way, never down a lot, down 66-65 with 1 minute left and gets outscored 7-0 to lose 73-65 and give Florida the cover.

Two plays tonight.

Butler +7.5
BYU +2

Likely the first time an 11-seed (Gonzaga) is favored over a 3-seed, mainly because BYU missing a top player. Going to play BYU anyways.

[slew101]

Two plays on Sunday.

North Carolina -4
Arizona +6

Want to take Michigan again +11.5 but wary about playing against Duke. Wolverines are also slow starters in most games, and if they get behind 10, 12 against Duke, they are not coming back.

[slew101]

Wrong on this one. Michigan down 15 with 12 minutes left and come all the way back and just miss going to OT in a 73-71 loss. Duke did not look good in this game.

Didn't take the 11.5 points. :bang:

Want to take Michigan again +11.5 but wary about playing against Duke. Wolverines are also slow starters in most games, and if they get behind 10, 12 against Duke, they are not coming back.