Beyer - BC chat transcript

[karlskorner]

Does he really have the answers ?

www.drf.com/bc/2003/chat_beyer.html

[JimG]

Thanks for the link. I'll say one thing about Beyer, he's not afraid to give an opinion. He's one horse racing writer that I'm sure backs his opinion at the betting windows.

Jim

[Suff]

The chat was at 5:00 PM EST. I logged on at 4:59. At 5:10 nothing was happening so I typed ..."what time you expect to get started?".

They responded " Technical difficulties, we Can't get Andy Beyer Logged on".

They got started at 5:25. 1/2 hour late. Sorta like Rock Stars..I suppose.

[kenwoodallpromos]

The more Andy Beyer I get, the less I like! Sounds like the only things he likes is the Yankees (lost!), Dynamer ( losing streak), and some that are not entered!! He doesn't like any horse with top beyers! I will agree with Beyer on his BC selections- I will dislike almost all horses running in any BC race- that way I will be corrrect with a high % of my picks to lose!!LOL!!

[kingfin66]

I think Beyer is wrong about Forest Music.

[alysheba88]

Why should he like horses with the "best beyers"? I dont understand that criticism

[Valuist]

I agree w/Alysheba. Beyer admits there's plenty of times he wagers against the "best Beyer #" horses. In the Winning Horseplayer, the whole book was about how the trip made the number.

[kingfin66]

I don't disagree with Beyer regarding betting against horses with the top Beyers. What sometimes irritates me about Beyer is when he makes statements to the effect that he doesn't thing Azeri is that great because she has only consistently beat 6 horse fields in SoCal. My response to that is so what and who cares. I guess it doesn't matter to Beyer that she was the 2002 HOY.

Beyer has obviously had a huge influence on horseracing, but he seems to bring a high degree of east coast arrogance when it comes to west coast horses. I'm just glad I didn't listen to his opinion on the Kentucky Derby.

BTW, it was interesting to hear Beyer say that rating the Euro horses by deducting 14 from the Timeform is very effective. I believe someone else on this board has espoused that same thing.

[kenwoodallpromos]

In the article Beyer distrusts a lot of Beyers as being compromised by trip, form or whatever. Any angle including Beyers that you constantly find reasons to ignore is not a reliable angle. Beyer did not say to consiser other things in conjunction to his #s, he said to throw the horses out Because of bad Beyers #s!

[alysheba88]

I dont see any inconsistency in what he said. Beyers have never been about the Holy grail "angle" to handicapping. All they tell you is how fast a horse ran last out. That is all. They are not a magical predictive tool.

When I started playing the game back in the late 80's and Beyers were not as well known, there was definite value in playing the "high Beyer" horses. But that is no longer the case. And again, they should not be used as a predictive tool.

Rather, as he implied, as a filter of eliminating horses. Once a horse has an established form, and you have an idea of what figure will be needed to win a race, you can eliminate horses rather quickly. But in BC races that is not necessarily true. For many reasons. First of all three of the races are on turf. Beyers just are not as reliable on turf due to the smaller sample. Plus trip and last quarter are vital. Secondly, the two year olds races contain horses with two or three starts. They don't have an established form yet, so significant increases in Beyers are not unusual in the least. Playing a two year old off two or three races because he/she has "the best Beyers" is a sure road to
ruin.

Its not about ignoring Beyers to me. Its about putting the information into a context. Too many handicappers blindly accept numbers without looking deeper.