Luck is not an issue in horse race betting.

[Stillriledup]

I feel that if i cut corners, the racing gods will punish me. If i make a mistake, they'll punish me too. They won't let me off the hook. But, on the other hand, if i handicap great, prepare tirelessly and make an incredibly smart decision, they reward me. They give me nothing for free, they only let me cash a ticket when i handicap for a long time and do everything right in preparation.

Have any of you found that you seem to do much better when you really prepare the right way as opposed to just opening up the form, curling up to an adult beverage, flipping on TVG and placing a wager that you really didn't 'research' tirelessly?

I feel like i'm not allowed to get 'lucky'. I feel like every bet i win is well earned and there was a ton of hard and smart work behind it. If i win a bet, there's zero luck involved. I feel that if i lose a bet, there's also no bad luck involved either. If i lose a bet, its because i wasnt good enough to win money on that particular race.

Explain to me how you view 'luck' in horse racing and in your own betting.

[cj]

So instead you curl up to your computer, have a few adult beverages, and start silly new threads on PA?

[Overlay]

I don't know about the necessity to "research tirelessly". The fundamentals need to be adequately taken into account, of course, but I think that it's possible to do that in a way that approaches handicapping from a systematic perspective, and that doesn't take hours of study on a race or a race card to apply.

In my case, dealing with statistics and probabilities helps me to avoid getting caught up in time-consuming subjective hair-splitting. Random events will always occur, but taking a long-term bulk view (i.e., that the effects of such events will even out over time), and looking at the full field from a probability/betting value standpoint, keeps me from getting oversold on any one horse, and helps me understand and cope with losses attributable to events that couldn't be foreseen or taken into account.

[Stillriledup]

So instead you curl up to your computer, have a few adult beverages, and start silly new threads on PA?

Time will tell if its silly or not. Silly threads usually don't have many replies or views. If this thread is one of them time will tell.

[cj]

Time will tell if its silly or not. Silly threads usually don't have many replies or views. If this thread is one of them time will tell.

My point is that in a game with a 20+ percent takeout, if you don't work hard you are going to get your ass handed to you. Who doesn't know that already?

[Stillriledup]

My point is that in a game with a 20+ percent takeout, if you don't work hard you are going to get your ass handed to you. Who doesn't know that already?

That's not the point i was trying to make or discuss.

[woodtoo]

Well....I know a player who relies only on luck,and he is a really lucky bettor.
Rarely looks a the form and when he does its usually a loss.He has this mysterious numbers system that makes no sense, we have stopped making fun of him because of the big payouts, now we just snicker amongst ourselves
Basically he plays certain numbers according the race number ie; r8 1 or 10
race 1 #4.Makes no sense at all :confused: but he does ok

[horses4courses]

To me, luck is a short-term factor only.

You will always be on that horse, occasionally, that gets shut-off behind a wall of other horses, only to get out too late, and finish full of run.
We have all been there.

On the other hand, a bettor does not recall, as easily, the time when you have the winning horse who benefitted from a bad trip for other horses.

Luck does not come into play - in the long run. It all evens out.

[Saratoga_Mike]

That's not the point i was trying to make or discuss.

It sure seemed like your point. What exactly was your point if it wasn't what CJ spelled out?

[Stillriledup]

It sure seemed like your point. What exactly was your point if it wasn't what CJ spelled out?

My point was that i'm never allowed to get lucky when i don't do the work. Its obvious that in the long run, you need to be very good and do a massive amount of correct work to even be competitive, i do understand that, my point was that i don't ever seem to win when i DONT do the work. I know you would say, "Well, that's obvious, if you don't do the work, you can't win". But, i'm talking about individual races, short term, i never seem to win unless i grind out the work.

Maybe i'm not explaining this the right way, but if a person who does no work at all and knows nothing about the game runs up in between hands of blackjack while in a Vegas Casino (for example) and tosses a hundred dollar chip on a random 8-1 shot at a random track, that guy will win on occasion. My point was that i can't do that. I can't toss a flyer on a horse i did no work on and get lucky.

[Saratoga_Mike]

My point was that i'm never allowed to get lucky when i don't do the work. Its obvious that in the long run, you need to be very good and do a massive amount of correct work to even be competitive, i do understand that, my point was that i don't ever seem to win when i DONT do the work. I know you would say, "Well, that's obvious, if you don't do the work, you can't win". But, i'm talking about individual races, short term, i never seem to win unless i grind out the work.

Maybe i'm not explaining this the right way, but if a person who does no work at all and knows nothing about the game runs up in between hands of blackjack while in a Vegas Casino (for example) and tosses a hundred dollar chip on a random 8-1 shot at a random track, that guy will win on occasion. My point was that i can't do that. I can't toss a flyer on a horse i did no work on and get lucky.

Maybe some of your wins that you thought were brilliantly insightful were just luck!

[Dahoss9698]

Someone needs a hug.

[Stillriledup]

Maybe some of your wins that you thought were brilliantly insightful were just luck!

See, now we're getting somewhere!

Its quite possible that i will do a ton of work, bet the wrong horse, win, and feel like i won because i did a great amt of work and had the right horse. Sure, that probably happens on a rare occasion.I'm talking about what my mind is telling me. I know the times i've done the work and uncovered what i feel was a great situation and i know the times when i was stupid and bet a race without doing a massive amount of work on, so, in my mind, i know when i've been good and when i've been bad and to me, whether right or wrong, i seem to not get 'allowed' to win when i know in my head i cut corners.

Good point!

[QuarterRACER]

though i'll play both. but to answer your question if i prepare on the races i prefer quarterhorses i feel my chances are far better. i keep my own track variant on most of the midwest quarterhorse tracks. there are times during the year i get behind in keeping up with the variant. what happens is i get to a race card ,i'll adjust my figures for the horses that ran on days that i had worked up a variant,but there can be 2 or 3 horses or more that i have no adjusted figure on. thus i'm left guessing at how well those horses really ran that day,and most of the time i will play one of the ones i had adjusted times on. so for me preparation is very important.

[MPRanger]

That's not the point i was trying to make or discuss.

This is a tough crowd. I thought the question was fun. I haven't been here long enough to become jaded yet.

I don't think there is anything very hard about playing the horses. But I haven't finished weaving my method together yet as a pro would. Like, I don't keep records as I know any serious approach should. I'm basically lazy. I have fun playing and I win. In fact, it seems the harder I try the worse I do. I enjoy the heck out of pace handicapping but I swear I do so much better and find it so much simpler to just rank my contenders according to class ascension and form. Seems to me that working twice as hard does not yield twice as much benefit.

Here's my typical evolution: I handicap the races that interest me the night before if I can, in the morning if I can't. Depends on how I feel about the race. I may analyse the pace or slough off and use class ascension. I use a chart to identify overlays in the exacta and quinela pools. The races that I handicap I may also play the win pool. I can use my charts as a pure toteboard system too. In between the races I have 'capped I'll play the toteboard by using the win pool odds to ferret out overlays in the exacta and quinella pools.

The most difficult thing for me is to concentrate and keep up with the probables as they are flashed on the monitor. Many many many times I don't catch them and have to pass the race. Sometimes I wonder why these jackasses even show the probables if they are gonna cutaway in the middle of a number to some meaningless shot of an outrider taking a positon. It really makes me crazy. When Keeneland is running, they do a great job of displaying the probables.

[Tuffmug]

Luck is a concept that lazy idiots use to deny responsibility for their failures and claim magical prowess for their successes.

[Light]

My point was that i'm never allowed to get lucky when i don't do the work.

Maybe you should enter a handicapping contest because according to you, they are all luck.

[Saratoga_Mike]

See, now we're getting somewhere!
Its quite possible that i will do a ton of work, bet the wrong horse, win, and feel like i won because i did a great amt of work and had the right horse. Sure, that probably happens on a rare occasion.I'm talking about what my mind is telling me. I know the times i've done the work and uncovered what i feel was a great situation and i know the times when i was stupid and bet a race without doing a massive amount of work on, so, in my mind, i know when i've been good and when i've been bad and to me, whether right or wrong, i seem to not get 'allowed' to win when i know in my head i cut corners.

Good point!

Yes, I'm suggesting maybe you aren't that good of a handicapper, and when you win, it's luck. I don't know, just a suggestion.

[highrider]

I have Luck by Design..But without some luck no design seems to work. :rolleyes:

[Tom]

Only two kinds of luck - bad and worse.

But, I suppose today, hitting that cable at Aqueduct was a stroke of luck for some. :rolleyes:

I remember one day, they canceled FL before the first race. as we alked out, my friend remarked that this was his best day ever at the track. This was before simulcasting, so he had to walk out with money in his pocket.
Good thing for bars.

[Pace Cap'n]

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

[Stillriledup]

Yes, I'm suggesting maybe you aren't that good of a handicapper, and when you win, it's luck. I don't know, just a suggestion.

Are you suggesting i improve my handicapping skills?

If you are, that's great advice, i will surely take that under consideration!

[harness2008]

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

......and you have to be prepared to make your own luck.

[Stillriledup]

Maybe you should enter a handicapping contest because according to you, they are all luck.

Where did i say they're all luck?

:bang:

[riskman]

Here is an article written by Gordon Pine from his Netcapper site.

The Most Important Factor in Horse Racing
http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010615.htm

There is some problems with some of the type but you can get the point he is making. Those damn "casual" factors are a bitch.

[garyscpa]

Here is an article written by Gordon Pine from his Netcapper site.

The Most Important Factor in Horse Racing
http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010615.htm

There is some problems with some of the type but you can get the point he is making. Those damn "casual" factors are a bitch.

Maybe SRU's being too casual in his handicapping. ;)

[rastajenk]

I remember one day, they canceled FL before the first race. as we alked out, my friend remarked that this was his best day ever at the track. This was before simulcasting, so he had to walk out with money in his pocket.Reminds me of one of my favorite racetrack lines, attributed to Anonymous: "I hope I get lucky and break even today...I need the money."

:)

[Light]

Where did i say they're all luck?

:bang:

Does "crap shoot" ring a bell?

[Cardus]

There might be "racing gods," but there certainly are not Internet Land Gods watching over us.

We'd be spared some of these inane threads.

[Stillriledup]

Maybe SRU's being too casual in his handicapping. ;)

I've found that when i give in to my desires for an action bet, i don't do as well as when i actually put some serious time and effort into it. I've been betting multiple tracks and spending plenty of time handicapping, but i do believe i'm spreading myself thin at this point. I'm going to start handicapping less races, but putting more time and effort into each race i cap.

[garyscpa]

I've found that when i give in to my desires for an action bet, i don't do as well as when i actually put some serious time and effort into it. I've been betting multiple tracks and spending plenty of time handicapping, but i do believe i'm spreading myself thin at this point. I'm going to start handicapping less races, but putting more time and effort into each race i cap.

Where do you find the time?

[Stillriledup]

Where do you find the time?

Usually from 10pm to 3am is when i do most of my work. Whatever i can get done in that 5 hour block is what i go with the next day.

[Market Mover]

I feel that if i cut corners, the racing gods will punish me. If i make a mistake, they'll punish me too. They won't let me off the hook. But, on the other hand, if i handicap great, prepare tirelessly and make an incredibly smart decision, they reward me. They give me nothing for free, they only let me cash a ticket when i handicap for a long time and do everything right in preparation.

Have any of you found that you seem to do much better when you really prepare the right way as opposed to just opening up the form, curling up to an adult beverage, flipping on TVG and placing a wager that you really didn't 'research' tirelessly?

I feel like i'm not allowed to get 'lucky'. I feel like every bet i win is well earned and there was a ton of hard and smart work behind it. If i win a bet, there's zero luck involved. I feel that if i lose a bet, there's also no bad luck involved either. If i lose a bet, its because i wasnt good enough to win money on that particular race.

Explain to me how you view 'luck' in horse racing and in your own betting.


"Luck" is coming out on the top end of a stewards' decision as in today's Big Cap. THAT's luck. In this game, you either have it or you don't...

[Stillriledup]

"Luck" is coming out on the top end of a stewards' decision as in today's Big Cap. THAT's luck. In this game, you either have it or you don't...

Actually, it would have been lucky had they altered the order of finish and you benefitted from horses who too slow to be placed ahead of horses faster than them.

There's no luck involved when the judges actually pay off the rightful winners.

[thaskalos]

They say that luck evens out in the end. If that's true...then I have a heck of a winning streak to look forward to...

[toussaud]

I don't see the big cap being luck. I had game on dude. But you know what, 3 weeks ago I had a horse literally just fall down that was making a winning move on the turn. My point is, if you play long enough, some brakes you get, some you won't get.

[dav4463]

I think I know exactly what the original poster is trying to say.

I work hard. I do my homework. I have my possible bets all written down in an orderly fashion. When I win, I feel good. I worked for it. I am successful....."on top of the world!"

Then I watch a drunk guy walk up and bet the #2 to win....for $20. He hits a $61.00 winner! Then he says " check this winner out, I punched the wrong track and caught a 30-1 shot! I meant to bet the other track!"

I've seen that happen. I am NEVER that guy! I'm not lucky!

[Greyfox]

So instead you curl up to your computer, have a few adult beverages, and start silly new threads on PA?

This idea of cj should be tossed out the window.

In my mind, "riled" you are doing the work and the right thing.
It's just a matter of time until you believe in what you are doing.
What is holding you back is your lack of believing in what you are doing.
You said:
I feel like "I'm not allowed to get 'lucky'."
Get that thought out of your head...today, right now, and forever.

Simply stated: If your mind's eye wont see it, it won't happen.
My advice:

You are allowed to get as "lucky" as the next guy...and even more so
as you've put your homework in. :ThmbUp:

[Light]

Stillriledup seems like one mixed up dude to me. On the one hand he attributes "luck" to be the determining force in handicapping contests and on the other hand the "gods" are unfair to him in not allowing him to play "lucky" at the races.

The resolution lies in his mistaken notion that handicapping contests and winning at the races is predominately determined by luck or to a great deal so. When and if he ever sees the truth he will realize that luck is not the predominant factor in horse racing. Then not having "luck" when you play the races will not be a reason to complain to the gods and on PA "why me".It will be seen as the natural outcome rather than "I'm not lucky".

Yes, people do win by pure luck where that drunk walks in and slobbers all over the teller saying "$100 win on the ffff ff fi ffi ve" and it wins as he passes out. But to expect to win at a "lucky" rate of probability that is equivalent to being hit by lightning is to cause yourself unnecessary mental anguish. Sober up and face reality.

[Fastracehorse]

They say that luck evens out in the end. If that's true...then I have a heck of a winning streak to look forward to...

So true :)

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

This idea of cj should be tossed out the window.

In my mind, "riled" you are doing the work and the right thing.
It's just a matter of time until you believe in what you are doing.
What is holding you back is your lack of believing in what you are doing.
You said:
I feel like "I'm not allowed to get 'lucky'."
Get that thought out of your head...today, right now, and forever.

Simply stated: If your mind's eye wont see it, it won't happen.
My advice:

You are allowed to get as "lucky" as the next guy...and even more so
as you've put your homework in. :ThmbUp:

...........have some tough beats but if you keep to the plan you are going to get some kind finishes.

fffastt

[Nitro]

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
Because the term "Luck" applies to so many of life's experiences and disciplines, I'll take your true comment a step further by reiterating a definition that I truly believe:
"Luck is Good Planning - Properly Executed".

I take this to simply mean that whatever approach was used to make good decisions in order to reach a valued goal successfully, should be held in high regard in order to replicate that achievement.

[riskman]

Simply stated: If your mind's eye wont see it, it won't happen.

Some of Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw here. The above statement applies to everything in life.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have come to the conclusion that luck is simply the randomness of the game, life, etc. beyond the point of which we can exert control.

To a winning player, "luck" is what works against him.
To a losing player, "Luck" is what works for him.

Luck is the opposite of regression to your mean. That is, it is the variance away from whatever is normal for you.


Consider the casino's experience at roulette. They've got a solid edge. The table comes out ahead most nights, as it should be. When the casino has a losing night it is because they got unlucky, while someone on the other side of the table got lucky.

In other words, it does not take luck to win for the casino because they are supposed to win.


Now, consider the player at the other side of the table; the one with the losing proposition. In order for them to win they must get lucky.


So, winning players experience "bad luck" while losing players are more likely to experience "good luck." This does not mean that the losing player admits to the good luck making him a winner today. In fact, it is often just the opposite.



Dave

[Stillriledup]

Stillriledup seems like one mixed up dude to me. On the one hand he attributes "luck" to be the determining force in handicapping contests and on the other hand the "gods" are unfair to him in not allowing him to play "lucky" at the races.

The resolution lies in his mistaken notion that handicapping contests and winning at the races is predominately determined by luck or to a great deal so. When and if he ever sees the truth he will realize that luck is not the predominant factor in horse racing. Then not having "luck" when you play the races will not be a reason to complain to the gods and on PA "why me".It will be seen as the natural outcome rather than "I'm not lucky".

Yes, people do win by pure luck where that drunk walks in and slobbers all over the teller saying "$100 win on the ffff ff fi ffi ve" and it wins as he passes out. But to expect to win at a "lucky" rate of probability that is equivalent to being hit by lightning is to cause yourself unnecessary mental anguish. Sober up and face reality.

Havent you learned ANYTHING reading my posts! :lol:

I could fix your post for you, but that would take too long.

I've gone over this ad nauseum, but to summarize, luck is a major factor in 2 day handicapping contests, people can stab 20-1 shots and hit one of them and beat you, they dont have to know too much to win a 2 day tournament. Its not ALL luck, but luck is a major factor.

Also, you needed to read more carefully and not just read what you wanted to read and interpret what you wanted to interpret. I'm not saying i want to just stab away and win...my point was that if i do cut corners in any way, shape or form, i don't win. Ever. If i slap together a quick pick 4 ticket, i lose. When i do the work is when i have a shot. The times that i've made good scores in pick anythings is when i've put massive amounts of work into it.

You need to not be offended that 2 day handicapping tournaments are luck. don't take it personally. For some reason, you're taking it personal and thinking that i'm making 'light' of the effort and passion that it takes to actually make money to beat the races.

[Light]

Stillriledup

I hear ya. But you already seem to know the answer to this whole thread. You've stated that when you do the work,you win and when you don't do the work,you lose. I think that goes for 99.9% of us. It's a little depressing to realize that this form of "entertainment" is actually "work" in disguise if you want to succeed. Otherwise,you should expect to lose,not be "lucky".

a) "Luck is a "gift" from forces we know not.The who, what and why of "luck" is even more mysterious.

b) Because "luck" is a gift,you cannot "use" it to make money.It's nature is that it will run away from you when greediness and desire is in your heart.

[Dahoss2002]

Havent you learned ANYTHING reading my posts! :lol:

I could fix your post for you, but that would take too long.

I've gone over this ad nauseum, but to summarize, luck is a major factor in 2 day handicapping contests, people can stab 20-1 shots and hit one of them and beat you, they dont have to know too much to win a 2 day tournament. Its not ALL luck, but luck is a major factor.

Also, you needed to read more carefully and not just read what you wanted to read and interpret what you wanted to interpret. I'm not saying i want to just stab away and win...my point was that if i do cut corners in any way, shape or form, i don't win. Ever. If i slap together a quick pick 4 ticket, i lose. When i do the work is when i have a shot. The times that i've made good scores in pick anythings is when i've put massive amounts of work into it.

You need to not be offended that 2 day handicapping tournaments are luck. don't take it personally. For some reason, you're taking it personal and thinking that i'm making 'light' of the effort and passion that it takes to actually make money to beat the races.
Not hating, but are you saying if I do my work and come up with a 20-1 shot it is luck? Dont get me wrong, I feel lucky everytime I pick a winner. What odds range does hard work and skill turn to luck?

[thaskalos]

I'm not saying i want to just stab away and win...my point was that if i do cut corners in any way, shape or form, i don't win. Ever. If i slap together a quick pick 4 ticket, i lose. When i do the work is when i have a shot. The times that i've made good scores in pick anythings is when i've put massive amounts of work into it.
SRU...allow me to offer a different perspective on this issue...

IMO, you are very fortunate to have never won when you "cut corners", because, if you HAD won by playing "sloppy", you would have accumulated many bad habits for which you would have to pay greatly in the end.

Why do so many players handle themselves so irresponsibly at the track?

Why do they bet with "scared" money...eventhough it has been repeated to them a million times that they should only gamble with money that they can afford to lose?

Why do they go to the OTB unprepared, buy the DRF at the door, and hurry to get their handicapping done in-between races...eventhough we all know that serious handicapping should be done earlier, in the calm and comforting surroundings of home?

Why do horseplayers "chase" their losses by wildly increasing their bets during the day...eventhough we all know that this is a recipe for disaster?

I'll tell you why:

They do all these things because THEY HAVE GOTTEN LUCKY, AND HAVE WON THIS WAY IN THE PAST!

A player takes the "rent" money to the OTB, and triples it...or, he runs to the OTB on his lunch hour totally unprepared, grabs a program he finds on the floor, glances at the PPs for 45 seconds, and hits a $1,500 trifecta...or, after losing during the whole day, he empties his pockets on his pick in the last race and goes home a big winner.

In all these cases, the player goes home singing...ecstatic with his good fortune.

But was he lucky...really?

Of course not. When sloppy, irresponsible play like this is rewarded, it is the worst thing that could happen to a player. The MEMORY of these "scores" lasts a lot longer than the winnings...and the player starts harboring thoughts that he can repeat this feat whenever he needs to in the future. He starts thinking that he is "lucky", and that the rules of proper play don't apply to him.

And that's the beginning of the end...

So...be glad that you never win when you play in a sloppy way; it helps keep you on your toes...and it forces you to give this game the serious effort that it deserves.

[Stillriledup]

SRU...allow me to offer a different perspective on this issue...

IMO, you are very fortunate to have never won when you "cut corners", because, if you HAD won by playing "sloppy", you would have accumulated many bad habits for which you would have to pay greatly in the end.

Why do so many players handle themselves so irresponsibly at the track?

Why do they bet with "scared" money...eventhough it has been repeated to them a million times that they should only gamble with money that they can afford to lose?

Why do they go to the OTB unprepared, buy the DRF at the door, and hurry to get their handicapping done in-between races...eventhough we all know that serious handicapping should be done earlier, in the calm and comforting surroundings of home?

Why do horseplayers "chase" their losses by wildly increasing their bets during the day...eventhough we all know that this is a recipe for disaster?

I'll tell you why:

They do all these things because THEY HAVE GOTTEN LUCKY, AND HAVE WON THIS WAY IN THE PAST!

A player takes the "rent" money to the OTB, and triples it...or, he runs to the OTB on his lunch hour totally unprepared, grabs a program he finds on the floor, glances at the PPs for 45 seconds, and hits a $1,500 trifecta...or, after losing during the whole day, he empties his pockets on his pick in the last race and goes home a big winner.

In all these cases, the player goes home singing...ecstatic with his good fortune.

But was he lucky...really?

Of course not. When sloppy, irresponsible play like this is rewarded, it is the worst thing that could happen to a player. The MEMORY of these "scores" lasts a lot longer than the winnings...and the player starts harboring thoughts that he can repeat this feat whenever he needs to in the future. He starts thinking that he is "lucky", and that the rules of proper play don't apply to him.

And that's the beginning of the end...

So...be glad that you never win when you play in a sloppy way; it helps keep you on your toes...and it forces you to give this game the serious effort that it deserves.

GREAT post. Everything you say here is the deepest form of true. I have a saying, "you win the way you lose and you lose the way you win"

If you gamble a certain way and win, if you lose, you're going to lose the same way. What goes up must come down.

I really appreciate this form of logic and thought process. The difference between the very good players and the great players is the ability of the great players to play with the same exact 'even mental keel' no matter how the previous day or week has treated them.

I've been doing this a long time and i feel that i've gotten much better at 'letting things go' than i was in the beginning of my horseplaying career.

I would take a bad beat with me to bed and not be able to let it go. Now, i have the ability to shake things off better and refocus in time for the next race.

One of the things i need to work on is the ability to NEVER let one race get in the way of another. I need to be able to skip a race that should be skipped after an emotional loss or a race i lost more than i wanted to.

If you take a bad beat or lose a race you really thought you should win, you gotta let that go instantly. The great ones can let it go instantly, the average ones carry that over to the next race or the next day and let it affect their plays going forward.

I try and tell myself after a bad beat/loss that its extremely important to get refocused because as bad as this beat was, i could make it worse by letting it affect me going forward.

Good stuff Thas.

[Grits]

I have a saying, "you win the way you lose and you lose the way you win".

Years ago, I was told by a physician something I've never forgotten.

"In all the years I've been practicing medicine, one thing I've come to realize -- "most of us tend to die in the same way that we've lived."

For myself, its our personality, our attitude that carries us throughout our lives and dictates how we think, how we react, how we cope. Luck has far less prominence in one's life than we may believe . . . doesn't matter whether its family, work, or play--I'd include winning or losing a horserace.

[skate]

My point is that in a game with a 20+ percent takeout, if you don't work hard you are going to get your ass handed to you. Who doesn't know that already?

but but but...you seem to miss (ms.) the point...you entwine, yep.

[cj]

but but but...you seem to miss (ms.) the point...you entwine, yep.

English anyone?

[wes]

It's all luck! Why do you think each horse has 4 horse shoes for?

wes

[Grits]

It's all luck! Why do you think each horse has 4 horse shoes for?

wes

You've not ever noticed that all four of their shoes are turned in the wrong direction for luck to be held in either of them?

Luck runs out when horseshoes are pointing downward.

[castaway01]

In the end our handicapping abilities and money management are what will determine our success or failure. That's about the only certainity we have as handicappers. Every other cliche' has its opposite side. For example, the OP said he doesn't get lucky, that he has to put the work in. On the other hand, the guy who mentored me at the track always said, "You study long, you study wrong." Now I agree that putting in the work is necessary, but it's important to work SMART and not just HARD. I personally believe specialization is the way to go, that having the best speed figures or knowledge of turf sires or track biases or trainer moves or whatever, really knowing that one topic cold, will bring you more success than studying a card for 10 hours and trying to master handicapping every aspect of every type of race. So I might work less than someone else and be considered "lucky" for hitting my spot plays, but it's really just that I know my little corner of the handicapping world better than some others might.

The rest of it is just luck. :)

[dav4463]

Sometimes it's better to be lucky.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=80867

[joeprunes]

"The more I practise the luckier I get"

[pondman]

If you are playing a game at a disadvantage, such as a slot machine, and you win money--then it is luck.

I also agree with the problem with contest: handicapping contest produce bad play. A person playing a 5 dollar tournament will throw caution to the wind. To beat the game over time requires a different mindset than a tournament.

This following statement will produce some skeptics but it's true: I study the structure of tracks and cluster horses by groups. My play sounds like "windsors." Because I've done years of analysis for a number of tracks, it only takes me about 30 seconds to scan a race card and decide if there is a play. I beat this game over time, and spend about 5 minute a day per track. I spend more time afterword recording daily results then the pre-race analysis.

[Dave Schwartz]

What does "windsors" mean?

[BetCrazyGirl]

I can't say luck as worked agasint me but maybe I'm just a lucky person ;) . I had made the wrong bet last year and it ended up paying out 200 something. It was a horse I would had never picked and was some really high longshot so luck was on my side that day.

Anyways, its the research part with horse racing I find to be entertaining, its a hell of alot more fun then pushing a button a slot machine just to hear a 'Ding!" and overall I'm more comfortable with placing a bet once I've done the research, that was another thing that actually sucked me into racing, was when I started to disset races and able to see them unfold how I was hoping they would.

And this isn't a silly thread :)

[gm10]

I can't say luck as worked agasint me but maybe I'm just a lucky person ;) . I had made the wrong bet last year and it ended up paying out 200 something. It was a horse I would had never picked and was some really high longshot so luck was on my side that day.

Anyways, its the research part with horse racing I find to be entertaining, its a hell of alot more fun then pushing a button a slot machine just to hear a 'Ding!" and overall I'm more comfortable with placing a bet once I've done the research, that was another thing that actually sucked me into racing, was when I started to disset races and able to see them unfold how I was hoping they would.

And this isn't a silly thread :)

When I was at Monmouth for the Breeders Cup I punched in some superfecta bet for the Classic, a very bad one. The machine went crazy and spit a number of tickets that were patently not mine. One of them was a trifecta Curlin/Hard Spun/Awesome Gem.

Now that's lucky.

[fmolf]

i believe that a slow time consuming handicapping method is the best.When i go to either belmont,aqueduct or saratoga i always play only that track using the same bankroll as when i go to the racepalace near where i live and try to play two sometimes three tracks.....i am not as thorough and not as shrewd with my wagering decisions mainly the structure of my bets when rushed and trying to follow the action at two or more tracks

[citygoat]

I just watched a Bio about Jimi Hendrix.He said that when you get rid of negativity and doubt everything becomes clear.I didn't know he handicapped. :D