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lamboguy
03-03-2011, 07:41 AM
i have been following this stock for over a year now, Syntroleum Corposration, ticker symbol SYNM. it is a bio fuel. an old time yankee ballplayer turned me on to the stock. i have watched it and watched it and it was like watching paint dry. yesterday was the first sign of strength since i have watched it. i hoped on for the ride.

the other 2 stocks i like alot are goldmining company's, Goldfields ticker GFI, and Iamgold ticker IAG.

if i am boring anyone on these picks i won't bother posting them anymore.

offtrack
03-03-2011, 08:05 AM
Stock talk is always interesting.
I assume you would be buying the actual stocks, not options?
As a trade- do you have an idea how long you will hold them?

lamboguy
03-03-2011, 08:37 AM
Stock talk is always interesting.
I assume you would be buying the actual stocks, not options?
As a trade- do you have an idea how long you will hold them?
the gold miners i am holding onto, the syntroleum deal i am trying to build a position. the way i do that is this, and there is nothing complicated as to the way i do it. i bought 5000 shares of synm at $1.83, if and when it moves 20% i will sell 4000 shares. if it pullsback 15% i will buy another 5000 shares and look for another 20%, and repeat this process up to 5 times.

my initial position i stop myself out on a 10% decline. i am pretty simple because i cannot compete with all the sharp people out there using algorythyms to try to clean me out. i do look at fibornacci expansion and contractions, and also various different moving averages, like the 20 day, 50 day and 200 day. in gold i actually look at the 200 week and 200 month moving averages. the way i have gold figured is that the bottom on gold will be in for a minimum of 10 years once the 200 week moving average crosses $1050. right now we are at $1026 and we will cross that number within 3 weeks if not sooner.

Tape Reader
03-03-2011, 07:51 PM
Hey Lamboguy,

I can't believe there isn't more interest in your post. I certainly am.

I would like to buy the first book that you write on life experiences. Always enjoy your posts.

Tape Reader

chickenhead
03-03-2011, 09:54 PM
I'm the opposite of a trader, more of a fundamentalist...but finally found another company to invest in after quite a time hunting around. I crack myself up with some of my finds, people think I'm crazy.

The company, WD-40. What a well run company. 300 hundred people in San Diego, who knew they were independant, not me. WD-40, 3-in-1 oil, and lava soap. Expect a nice dividend bump next year sometime. Bought in for a quarter position recently.

lamboguy
03-03-2011, 10:01 PM
Stock talk is always interesting.
I assume you would be buying the actual stocks, not options?
As a trade- do you have an idea how long you will hold them?i don't buy, sell or write options. i don't play etf's, and i am not a future guy. although i do like natural gas as the move of the decade coming up. i am developing a list of explores and company's that should benefit from a bull market in nat gas

newtothegame
03-03-2011, 11:45 PM
yeah Lambo...I think there can be alot of interest in this thread. I personally like it. Just dont tell the libs...they will want to know how we have money to buy and sell stock lol.
But serriously, I follow and like the thread and look for more ...
Thanks again

plainolebill
03-04-2011, 12:07 AM
Gasfrac is an interesting company. They use gelled propane rather than water and fracking fluid to frac wells. Given the negative attention conventional fracking is getting in the news this looks like a pretty strong alternative.

Disclosure: I am long Gasfrac :D

lamboguy
03-04-2011, 06:44 AM
Gasfrac is an interesting company. They use gelled propane rather than water and fracking fluid to frac wells. Given the negative attention conventional fracking is getting in the news this looks like a pretty strong alternative.

Disclosure: I am long Gasfrac :Ddo you have any idea how many people work for the company?

lamboguy
03-04-2011, 07:00 AM
what is good about company's like GFS.V is that the management team does not get giant paychecks, but probably bigtime options.

lamboguy
03-04-2011, 04:43 PM
i have been following this stock for over a year now, Syntroleum Corposration, ticker symbol SYNM. it is a bio fuel. an old time yankee ballplayer turned me on to the stock. i have watched it and watched it and it was like watching paint dry. yesterday was the first sign of strength since i have watched it. i hoped on for the ride.

the other 2 stocks i like alot are goldmining company's, Goldfields ticker GFI, and Iamgold ticker IAG.

if i am boring anyone on these picks i won't bother posting them anymore.
synm finished out the day today up 16% or .32 with plenty of volume to hold this thing for a little longer

prospector
03-04-2011, 08:00 PM
i don't buy, sell or write options. i don't play etf's, and i am not a future guy. although i do like natural gas as the move of the decade coming up. i am developing a list of explores and company's that should benefit from a bull market in nat gas
i agree 100% with the natural gas..one of the best ideas i heard in the last few years was to make all city buses and trucks run on natural gas..it didn't go anywhere..it made sense..

lamboguy
03-04-2011, 08:29 PM
i agree 100% with the natural gas..one of the best ideas i heard in the last few years was to make all city buses and trucks run on natural gas..it didn't go anywhere..it made sense..you will definately see this within 15 years if not much sooner. i am going to come up with a list of individual company's and post them. my problem is there is only 24 hours in a day and i get into lots of arguements and fights on a very frequent basis. the whole world seems like they are out to get me.

plainolebill
03-04-2011, 09:19 PM
UPS is changing their vehicle fleet to natural gas - getting ahead of the curve again.

lamboguy
03-04-2011, 09:29 PM
the way i am seeing things these days is that us dollar is dropping like a rock, as long as so much money leaves the shores here the dollar is dead, they need nat gas to bail us out.

skate
03-08-2011, 12:05 PM
"shale oil" babe...after BO leaves office, 2017, shale will have been on radar, you'll be late.

lamboguy
03-09-2011, 07:28 AM
Gasfrac is an interesting company. They use gelled propane rather than water and fracking fluid to frac wells. Given the negative attention conventional fracking is getting in the news this looks like a pretty strong alternative.

Disclosure: I am long Gasfrac :Dthe action on this stock looks pretty good. they had a bad day yesterday due to an accident on one of the properties that they were going to do work on. the stock had gone up over 30% in one week, i was looking to enter between $9.50 and 10.00 incase it gets there. i never chase stocks so if i miss it i miss it.

Valuist
03-09-2011, 03:29 PM
The market bottomed 2 years ago today....been a great two year run but its starting to look long in the tooth. Doesn't take a genius to see that while the equities market has recovered, the economy is still in trouble. If oil prices fall, that will help. If not, we could re-visit 2008. Interesting to see that PIMCO is going to all cash.

lamboguy
03-09-2011, 03:57 PM
The market bottomed 2 years ago today....been a great two year run but its starting to look long in the tooth. Doesn't take a genius to see that while the equities market has recovered, the economy is still in trouble. If oil prices fall, that will help. If not, we could re-visit 2008. Interesting to see that PIMCO is going to all cash.in honor of your post, i just went short a few things at the close today!

Valuist
03-09-2011, 04:20 PM
in honor of your post, i just went short a few things at the close today!

Smart thinking. I sold about 10% of my holdings.

Either way, I think we get a definite correction. If the Middle East thing blows over, it will be relatively short. But if you look at the 200 day moving avg on the S & P it looks very over-extended.

The bearish argument is that oil keeps rising, unemployment stays high, and inflation kicks in. THAT could get real ugly.

Not trying to call a top here, but its not a bad idea to have an escape plan ready.

Valuist
03-09-2011, 05:11 PM
Seeing what happened to Finisar last night and today is a good reminder that momentum doesn't go forever. The stock had been a momentum darling; one of the top stocks on the IBD 50 for awhile. It hit $43.50 on Monday but trading was halted late in the day yesterday. They "made" the number but the guidance was real, real bad. The stock is about $24.50 today. And for good measure, they took competitor JDSU out back and shot them for a 15% or so loss.

Last 2 years have been great for momentum and growth; have to think there could be a swing to value soon.

lamboguy
03-09-2011, 05:15 PM
Smart thinking. I sold about 10% of my holdings.

Either way, I think we get a definite correction. If the Middle East thing blows over, it will be relatively short. But if you look at the 200 day moving avg on the S & P it looks very over-extended.

The bearish argument is that oil keeps rising, unemployment stays high, and inflation kicks in. THAT could get real ugly.

Not trying to call a top here, but its not a bad idea to have an escape plan ready.
the 200 day is a great one to follow. i also use the 200 week for gold. gold is pretty scary right now because of the extension away from the 200 week that it is right now. it is narrowing the gap though. right now its $400 over the 200 week. i find that when you deal with a long term bull or bear you have to definately get your head wrapped around a long term average.

RaceBookJoe
03-09-2011, 07:37 PM
Seeing what happened to Finisar last night and today is a good reminder that momentum doesn't go forever. The stock had been a momentum darling; one of the top stocks on the IBD 50 for awhile. It hit $43.50 on Monday but trading was halted late in the day yesterday. They "made" the number but the guidance was real, real bad. The stock is about $24.50 today. And for good measure, they took competitor JDSU out back and shot them for a 15% or so loss.

Last 2 years have been great for momentum and growth; have to think there could be a swing to value soon.

The FNSR situation made a great daytrade for me today though. JDSU dropped in sympathy...happens often, sometimes entire sectors just get hit. I didnt play JDSU, only FNSR...but JDSU was a great play today also. I think you are on the right track about going towards value soon, just going to wait for it to happen. You would have to think, long-term, that the monetary situation is going to hit the market hard. rbj

raybo
03-09-2011, 11:10 PM
Are there any positive rumblings, regarding natural gas, from the automakers? I've thought for a long time that there won't be much movement towards gas until the automakers get serious about it.

Thoughts?

lamboguy
03-17-2011, 11:36 AM
got stopped out of my shorts today. will reshort on friday afternoon if market rises into that period. i don't want to be long now!

still own SYNM

PICSIX
03-18-2011, 08:11 AM
got stopped out of my shorts today. will reshort on friday afternoon if market rises into that period. i don't want to be long now!

still own SYNM

Lamboguy,

You need to check this Free blog-site out.

http://wishingwealthblog.com/

Best free site for stock market analysis, hands down! I recommend reading from beginning to end. At the very least, go back before 2008.

lamboguy
03-18-2011, 08:30 AM
Lamboguy,

You need to check this Free blog-site out.

http://wishingwealthblog.com/

Best free site for stock market analysis, hands down! I recommend reading from beginning to end. At the very least, go back before 2008.the guy is real good, i looked back and he looks very steady. thank you for pointing this out to me. one important thing that i have learned in life is that i am often wrong, a matter of fact i am more wrong than right! life is always about going forward and learning new things on a constant basis.

PICSIX
03-18-2011, 08:40 AM
the guy is real good, i looked back and he looks very steady. thank you for pointing this out to me. one important thing that i have learned in life is that i am often wrong, a matter of fact i am more wrong than right! life is always about going forward and learning new things on a constant basis.

Yes, he is good (doubled one of his accounts 12 times in the last 10 years). He learned from many years of making mistakes. I like his calm well thought out approach. It helps ground me--I tend to get trigger happy when it comes to stock investing.

Good luck with your future investments! :ThmbUp:

Valuist
03-18-2011, 11:05 AM
Are there any positive rumblings, regarding natural gas, from the automakers? I've thought for a long time that there won't be much movement towards gas until the automakers get serious about it.

Thoughts?

I think we have to get the politicians on board. Obama appointed Boone Pickens, who is HUGE on nat gas so I have to think deep down, he knows that it is the right thing. Unfortunately many Dems hate Pickens for less than flattering comments he made about John Kerry back when he was runnign for Prez. It is so logical even the most stubborn tree hugger should be able to understand. Never mind its much cleaner than oil, its still a dreaded (in their minds) fossil fuel. Meanwhile we are still dependent on foreign oil at $100 plus a barrel. :bang:

raybo
03-18-2011, 09:46 PM
I think we have to get the politicians on board. Obama appointed Boone Pickens, who is HUGE on nat gas so I have to think deep down, he knows that it is the right thing. Unfortunately many Dems hate Pickens for less than flattering comments he made about John Kerry back when he was runnign for Prez. It is so logical even the most stubborn tree hugger should be able to understand. Never mind its much cleaner than oil, its still a dreaded (in their minds) fossil fuel. Meanwhile we are still dependent on foreign oil at $100 plus a barrel. :bang:

Yeah, Pickens has been one of my heroes forever, along with Perot and Buffett (and of course Doyle Brunson).

I just can't fathom, why, this country hasn't made an aggressive move towards natural gas, as an alternative to oil.

Am I missing something?

lamboguy
03-18-2011, 10:51 PM
Yeah, Pickens has been one of my heroes forever, along with Perot and Buffett (and of course Doyle Brunson).

I just can't fathom, why, this country hasn't made an aggressive move towards natural gas, as an alternative to oil.

Am I missing something?its very simple, the united states government is bought and paid for by bankers and large corporations, they work hand in hand to mislead the citizens.

raybo
03-18-2011, 11:05 PM
its very simple, the united states government is bought and paid for by bankers and large corporations, they work hand in hand to mislead the citizens.

I won't disagree with you.

It just seems that now that everybody on the face of the earth knows that oil has a definite "life span", that the "powers that be" would put a little more effort into other alternatives, other than "bio-fuel", which still depends on oil, and windmills don't run automobiles, ditto for nuclear, and coal.

Automobiles and airplanes, both commercial and military, use tremendous amounts of oil, why not start converting automobile engines to natural gas and start on the infrastructure to put fueling stations in strategic locations so those who convert will have somewhere to refuel?

I just don't get it.

RaceBookJoe
03-19-2011, 06:28 PM
Does anyone here trade the crude futures ( CL ) ? If so, what is your experience with trading it? Thanks rbj

PaceAdvantage
03-19-2011, 08:00 PM
Does anyone here trade the crude futures ( CL ) ? If so, what is your experience with trading it? Thanks rbjYou can make or lose a LOT of money VERY quickly, especially lately...

The average range on the CL is at least $2 and lately has crept up to almost $4, with some individual high action days going as high as almost $9....since each penny tick is worth $10, a one dollar move equals $1,000 P/L for a SINGLE CONTRACT.

By comparison, the S&P minis have to move 20 points in order for you to make or lose $1,000 per contract and the average daily range on the S&P was around 20 although it's risen lately to around 26...

So you can see that volatitlity on the CL is quite extreme compared to the S&P...

Plus it isn't nearly as liquid as the S&P futures, so slippage is a much greater factor...that being said, I've been using an automated strategy on the CL that many would consider a scalping strategy...although I recently revised it with the expanded volatility we've seen lately...I was only going for four ticks per trade...now I'm up to twelve... :lol:

Like trying to pick up quarters on the expressway.... :lol: :lol:

lamboguy
03-19-2011, 08:55 PM
You can make or lose a LOT of money VERY quickly, especially lately...

The average range on the CL is at least $2 and lately has crept up to almost $4, with some individual high action days going as high as almost $9....since each penny tick is worth $10, a one dollar move equals $1,000 P/L for a SINGLE CONTRACT.

By comparison, the S&P minis have to move 20 points in order for you to make or lose $1,000 per contract and the average daily range on the S&P was around 20 although it's risen lately to around 26...

So you can see that volatitlity on the CL is quite extreme compared to the S&P...

Plus it isn't nearly as liquid as the S&P futures, so slippage is a much greater factor...that being said, I've been using an automated strategy on the CL that many would consider a scalping strategy...although I recently revised it with the expanded volatility we've seen lately...I was only going for four ticks per trade...now I'm up to twelve... :lol:

Like trying to pick up quarters on the expressway.... :lol: :lol:i was watching last week how the bids just evaporated all at once like flash gordon!

that is one brutal market to trade. i would rather trade the etf's for oil by shorting them. i made some money shorting other etf's like the FAS, FAZ. there is more action these days in the markets and just as fast as a horse race.

PaceAdvantage
03-19-2011, 09:01 PM
i was watching last week how the bids just evaporated all at once like flash gordon!Yup...happens all the time, especially if you look to enter on the break of a previous bar high or low like I do....

RaceBookJoe
03-19-2011, 09:31 PM
You can make or lose a LOT of money VERY quickly, especially lately...

The average range on the CL is at least $2 and lately has crept up to almost $4, with some individual high action days going as high as almost $9....since each penny tick is worth $10, a one dollar move equals $1,000 P/L for a SINGLE CONTRACT.

By comparison, the S&P minis have to move 20 points in order for you to make or lose $1,000 per contract and the average daily range on the S&P was around 20 although it's risen lately to around 26...

So you can see that volatitlity on the CL is quite extreme compared to the S&P...

Plus it isn't nearly as liquid as the S&P futures, so slippage is a much greater factor...that being said, I've been using an automated strategy on the CL that many would consider a scalping strategy...although I recently revised it with the expanded volatility we've seen lately...I was only going for four ticks per trade...now I'm up to twelve... :lol:

Like trying to pick up quarters on the expressway.... :lol: :lol:

Thanks for the write-up. I have been tinkering with a few indicator settings and might try it slowly. I'll be careful though...dont want to get hit by one of those 18-wheelers cruisin' down the highway :) rbj

lamboguy
03-27-2011, 08:24 PM
i like the is gold miner GCU.V

grand canyon resources

on the venture exchange, i am buyer under 3.25

lamboguy
04-04-2011, 11:59 AM
just updating GCU.V

it has gone to $3.83

i am looking for $6.00 and maybe more if we get there.

still holding SYNM

the guy that had GFS.V looks good to now. stock got hit good and is rebounding looks like an $18 stock to me this year.

i am holding MCP from $50. it looks pretty parabolic today, i only have 200 shares of that baby and i am holding for dear life

ford motor looks good too on a buy around $13.50. i don't have any of that yet

good luck

HUSKER55
04-04-2011, 01:31 PM
Do you ever wonder about how real the energy crisis is? Remember back in the 60's and that german? guy made a carberater that got 60 miles per gallon?

I had family in the Army over there and they had a grand sport torino that got 47 mpg back then, with that carb on it. They were forced to sell the car because the laws wouldn't let them bring that carberatur and manifold over here.

The rest, as it is said, is history. My question is "what the hell happened"?

Where is that sucker today?

One has to think Detroit has answers they are not sharing, don't ya think?

lamboguy
04-05-2011, 04:07 PM
GCU.V has had a huge week so far. the stock has closed today at $4.03. congradulations for those that moved in under $3.25 last week. this thing is going to $6.00 and maybe more!

skate
04-05-2011, 05:32 PM
we have Hundreds of Trillions of Dollar Value in the ground, of which the Gov. owns most , like somewhere around 80% of the land.

Shale babe


oh yes, they also own about 92.7 % of the BS, yepper.:cool:

Valuist
04-06-2011, 09:48 AM
Do you ever wonder about how real the energy crisis is? Remember back in the 60's and that german? guy made a carberater that got 60 miles per gallon?

I had family in the Army over there and they had a grand sport torino that got 47 mpg back then, with that carb on it. They were forced to sell the car because the laws wouldn't let them bring that carberatur and manifold over here.

The rest, as it is said, is history. My question is "what the hell happened"?

Where is that sucker today?

One has to think Detroit has answers they are not sharing, don't ya think?

Detroit has shown (other than Ford) that they clearly are lacking many answers.

Valuist
04-06-2011, 09:51 AM
just updating GCU.V

it has gone to $3.83

i am looking for $6.00 and maybe more if we get there.

still holding SYNM

the guy that had GFS.V looks good to now. stock got hit good and is rebounding looks like an $18 stock to me this year.

i am holding MCP from $50. it looks pretty parabolic today, i only have 200 shares of that baby and i am holding for dear life

ford motor looks good too on a buy around $13.50. i don't have any of that yet

good luck

Gotta love Molycorp. Who needs tris or P4s when you there are MCP's of the world. I sold puts at 46. Just trying to bottom fish and steal some premium.

lamboguy
04-06-2011, 10:06 AM
Gotta love Molycorp. Who needs tris or P4s when you there are MCP's of the world. I sold puts at 46. Just trying to bottom fish and steal some premium.i have a gold miner IAG, IAMGOLD, they have the usual mining products plus a rare earth mineral called NOBIUM. they look good too and is a well managed miner.

i got my MCP on a secondary @$50 and they belted it down to $42 and i watched it. that baby is a monster going to god knows where.

lamboguy
04-08-2011, 08:34 PM
this week


SYNM finishes the week flat
GCU.V finishes the week at $4.00


a couple of goldminers that look pretty good right now AUY--------NXG

both have been underperformers now for a long time, the volume walked into AUY today. maybe something is up with that one.

i have been working on a natural gas list that i will have ready next week. if you are interested in it i will send it to you

lamboguy
04-29-2011, 03:18 PM
today gold has had a $30 move. its the biggest one day move that i can remember. gold is sitting at $1565 an ounce on its way to surpass the $1600 number i have been speaking about for the last 4 years. i am not that happy about it, it doesn't say much for what is going on in our country and the rest of the world. gold at these levels speak louder than words.

WaHoo
04-29-2011, 03:40 PM
today gold has had a $30 move. its the biggest one day move that i can remember. gold is sitting at $1565 an ounce on its way to surpass the $1600 number i have been speaking about for the last 4 years. i am not that happy about it, it doesn't say much for what is going on in our country and the rest of the world. gold at these levels speak louder than words.

Don't you think the U.S. Gov are the ones pushing the price of Gold and Silver up? I believe they are wanting everyone to sell and collecting all the Gold for payment to the Chinese and driving the dollar down, If Obama is re-elected gold will go over $3k oz.
This is just another way of busting the U.S.

lamboguy
04-29-2011, 03:52 PM
Don't you think the U.S. Gov are the ones pushing the price of Gold and Silver up? I believe they are wanting everyone to sell and collecting all the Gold for payment to the Chinese and driving the dollar down, If Obama is re-elected gold will go over $3k oz.
This is just another way of busting the U.S.i agree, the only thing is that when junior bush took office the price of gold was $250. he left it was $1250. the brunt of this move was under bush. if republican gets elected this time around or obama gets elected gold goes to $5000 or $10,000.. no president from either party can repair this country after what bush did to it

i have made bush the culprit, but if obama was any good he could have stopped the moral decline that bush started. he wound up being a continuation play of bushy.they are both the same.

PaceAdvantage
04-29-2011, 06:03 PM
i agree, the only thing is that when junior bush took office the price of gold was $250. he left it was $1250. the brunt of this move was under bush. if republican gets elected this time around or obama gets elected gold goes to $5000 or $10,000.. no president from either party can repair this country after what bush did to it

i have made bush the culprit, but if obama was any good he could have stopped the moral decline that bush started. he wound up being a continuation play of bushy.they are both the same.Detail for a me a bit, exactly what Bush did that so damaged the USA.

And don't tell me the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

And I want to know specifically why it is Bush's fault, and not the fault of the Federal Reserve or Dems in Congress who wanted no part of some of the reforms the White House was pushing in 2005 or 2006.

Was it all because of the bailouts? Hell, the Dems controlled congress by that point and should have vetoed those bailouts, but they were the major cheerleaders, were they not?

Take me to school lamboguy. I want to learn.

lamboguy
04-29-2011, 06:43 PM
bush took an expanded economy that he was handed and decreased the revenue base so that banks and corporations paid hardly any taxes. take a look at what is going on now with general electric. they make billions and hardly pay anything. look at your large financial institutions that arbitrate their taxes on a regular basis and wind up paying less than half of what they owe. he expanded the budget and never had the revenue to pay for it, therefore bringing the dollar down from 126 to 70 when he left. you mentioned wars, their were plenty of large company's that made plenty of money on it. i have no idea if the wars were justified or not, all i know is that there were alot of large corporations and individuals that got rich with those wars. i will admit that after 9/11 things took a drastic change in this country where people were afraid to travel and go to public places. it was his job to subside the peoples fears, and pretty much succeeded at it with a very high monetary cost that was completely unfunded. since the dollar is still the reserve currency of the world we have been able to get away from paying the piper up until now. the decline in the dollar and the rise in price of gold is telling the whole story today without knowing anything else.

JBmadera
04-29-2011, 07:50 PM
two spec stocks I've been buying lately: TRE and MITK. TRE could be the real deal assuming the govt doesn't take them over and MITK is in a real hot space, mobile banking, expect SAP, ORCL or IBM to snatch them up soon.

lamboguy
04-29-2011, 08:22 PM
two spec stocks I've been buying lately: TRE and MITK. TRE could be the real deal assuming the govt doesn't take them over and MITK is in a real hot space, mobile banking, expect SAP, ORCL or IBM to snatch them up soon.
james sinclair is a buddy of mine. he is the sharpest man on the face of the planet when it comes to currency's and gold. his father was a legendary trader and jimmy worked to liquidate the hunt brothes back in 1980. tanzanian royaly is a good company, it had some action the last 2 days. i own that and i also on royal gold that is a much bigger company't than sinclair's. sinclair thinks his stock will be a $50 stock within a few years. its a good one to own. i could go on and on about these company's i have been following all of them since 2000!

Robert Fischer
04-29-2011, 08:36 PM
what if some of these big gold and silver buying traders were to ask for delivery?

JBmadera
04-29-2011, 09:14 PM
james sinclair is a buddy of mine. he is the sharpest man on the face of the planet when it comes to currency's and gold. his father was a legendary trader and jimmy worked to liquidate the hunt brothes back in 1980. tanzanian royaly is a good company, it had some action the last 2 days. i own that and i also on royal gold that is a much bigger company't than sinclair's. sinclair thinks his stock will be a $50 stock within a few years. its a good one to own. i could go on and on about these company's i have been following all of them since 2000!

here's to $50 then..... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

lamboguy
04-29-2011, 09:14 PM
what if some of these big gold and silver buying traders were to ask for delivery?
this is not the same type of a gold run like in the late 70"s. you have big people like country's buying up the metals out the back door without the IMF. there is plenty of support for metals below these numbers. at the present time the silver market has backwardation in it, i have never seen that last this long, its been over 2 months now.

Bettowin
04-30-2011, 03:57 AM
How about a new "Topic" for this thread or should it stay under the radar? Great info.


Thanks guys.

plainolebill
04-30-2011, 04:10 AM
For speculation I've got mostly junior oil/gas, for miners I've got Orbite.A - new alumina extraction process, Allana Potash in Ethiopia, Baja mining - copper. I wish I had few gold miners but I think I'm a little late to the party.

lamboguy
04-30-2011, 07:38 AM
For speculation I've got mostly junior oil/gas, for miners I've got Orbite.A - new alumina extraction process, Allana Potash in Ethiopia, Baja mining - copper. I wish I had few gold miners but I think I'm a little late to the party.
trust me on this one, you are not late to the party on goldminers. there are tons of them that are the exact same price they were 10 years ago. they are being held back for the time being, but there will come a day soon where they will move too. if you want a few mid-tier producers try IAG, AUY, KGC. they all have small things wrong with them right now that will be fixed.

as far as gas goes you are onto to something there. that is going to be the next big market to come. you are at the very infant stage of them. if you could post a few of your plays i would appreciate it because i am heading in that direction as well and don't know the players yet

plainolebill
05-01-2011, 12:32 AM
Thanks for the miners Lamboguy. I like Birchcliff Energy BIREF on the pinks, they're producing light oil and gas in Alberta and Eastern BC, they'll benefit from the lng export terminal being built at Kitimat, BC. They've run up quite a bit recently. I also like Sandridge, they're drilling and completing a large number of oil wells with a high ROR - buy the oil company and get the gas inventory for free. SD isn't a junior, they're the 3rd most active driller in the US right now.

Valuist
05-01-2011, 01:05 AM
today gold has had a $30 move. its the biggest one day move that i can remember. gold is sitting at $1565 an ounce on its way to surpass the $1600 number i have been speaking about for the last 4 years. i am not that happy about it, it doesn't say much for what is going on in our country and the rest of the world. gold at these levels speak louder than words.

Whenever Bernanke talks, the price of gold goes up. He had his press conference and the spot price goes up by $30. How can the rest of the country see that we are headed for a serious inflation problem but he can't? Probably because he actually believes the biased CPI numbers, which discount food and energy. Maybe Ben doesn't have to worry about those prices but the rest of us do. He is an idiot who completely missed the mortgage crisis and he will steer us straight into an inflation crisis.

lamboguy
05-01-2011, 02:56 AM
Whenever Bernanke talks, the price of gold goes up. He had his press conference and the spot price goes up by $30. How can the rest of the country see that we are headed for a serious inflation problem but he can't? Probably because he actually believes the biased CPI numbers, which discount food and energy. Maybe Ben doesn't have to worry about those prices but the rest of us do. He is an idiot who completely missed the mortgage crisis and he will steer us straight into an inflation crisis.
the gold did move with his words, but the dollar index moved even more, it was down 2 full points and looks like its heading to 70 now.

personally i think that bernankie was handed a deck of cards by the government this century and he played them to the best of his ability. it looks like he wants the dollar to weaken and keep the world out of a depression. he is the most powerful man in the world today, and he is operating to the best of his abilities. thorughout civilization there has always been a balancing act between fiat currencies and gold. this is precisely what you are seeing today. alot of us look at the last 2 presidents and see that they are both bums in the ballpark with very poor leadership skills. but its not only those 2, when you look around the world there are very few leaders in power that are better than those 2 squandering idiots. but it all boils down to us, we are the real dopes for getting fooled by these snake-oil salesman, and holding our leaders accountable for what they are doing to us. presidents are not governing under what their job descriptions are, they are way to political. they are afraid to make tough decisions, and when they are in, they only worry about getting re=elected.

lamboguy
05-20-2011, 08:50 AM
the country of mexico has just announced that they have diversified some of their assets away from the us dollar and into gold. they just bought 93.3 tons of gold to make their total holding of 100 tons in their treasury's portfolio.

another thing that is happening is that there is a trend in mexico to monetize silver. they need approval from their congress which is in recess until september.

i believe that the real push to monetize silver is because they need some protection from the high prices of corn. i believe this will happen as soon as the congress gets into session. people might starve there without this happening.

go long silver

JBmadera
05-20-2011, 09:11 AM
I still like MITK, adding to my position. Expect it to be bought out shortly as mobile banking is hot right now.

TRE is making we nuts, it has to break out of its channel soon otherwise I'm going to drop about 3/4's of my position and keep 1/4 as a long term hold

lamboguy
05-20-2011, 10:47 AM
when you get rid of TRE, it will explode. that is just the way these things are. TRE is not alone, i am following 50 others that look exactly the same. there has been some type of hedge fund trade where they short juniors and mid tier producers and go long the metals. this trade will unwind within 2 months. so i would not be that worried about TRE.

i am positioned in DANG since $24.47. i am loser in that position but i like it as my internet china play for now. it is trading at 21.69 as i speak, it it falls below 20.00 i am out

JBmadera
05-20-2011, 11:29 AM
when you get rid of TRE, it will explode. that is just the way these things are. TRE is not alone, i am following 50 others that look exactly the same. there has been some type of hedge fund trade where they short juniors and mid tier producers and go long the metals. this trade will unwind within 2 months. so i would not be that worried about TRE.

i am positioned in DANG since $24.47. i am loser in that position but i like it as my internet china play for now. it is trading at 21.69 as i speak, it it falls below 20.00 i am out

yep, that's the way it seems to work!

good luck with your trades

plainolebill
05-22-2011, 12:06 AM
Here's an interesting stock and a story that could change the world of energy, most certainly the fat cat farmers getting the ethanol subsidies. Celanese has a process that can produce ethanol at $1.60 per gallon from ng, coal or petroleum coke. The equivilant of $60.00 oil.

Interview (http://cenblog.org/the-chemical-notebook/2010/12/celanese-says-it-is-the-amazon-of-ethanol/)

highnote
05-22-2011, 02:17 AM
good ideas here! thanks!

I'm 90% cash since end of April.... sell in May then go away.

I'm waiting for some good opportunities.

I own Hecla Mining (HL) and Sketchers (SKX). I have sold calls on Sketchers, though. It's down $1 since I bought, but calls keep me at about even.

I will sell some calls on HL if I can get a good price, but I don't mind being long HL since I think Silver will get back to over $40.

Fracing looks interesting. Big money is being spent buying up the rights to drill on 100 acre plots of land.

lamboguy
05-22-2011, 09:07 AM
good ideas here! thanks!

I'm 90% cash since end of April.... sell in May then go away.

I'm waiting for some good opportunities.

I own Hecla Mining (HL) and Sketchers (SKX). I have sold calls on Sketchers, though. It's down $1 since I bought, but calls keep me at about even.

I will sell some calls on HL if I can get a good price, but I don't mind being long HL since I think Silver will get back to over $40.

Fracing looks interesting. Big money is being spent buying up the rights to drill on 100 acre plots of land.
CE got one beautiful looking chart. I'M IN. thank you for a good looking one.

as far as hecka goes, its a personality stock, i have been following that company for over a decade now. i have owed and sold it at least 20 different times in that timeframe. i like PAAS better for a bluechip silver if there is a such thing! if you want a pretty conservetive investment in metals, RGLD.

lamboguy
06-13-2011, 11:32 AM
PAAS has taken a bit of a hit since they elected a new leader in Puru. the guy is supposedly not as good for miners in that country.

alot is happening in the world today, gold seems to be stalled for the time being because their is some demand for the us dollar for now. i suspect that won't last to long, but gold can still fall below $1400 on a bad day before it hits my new target of $1740. i am not selling because i view gold as an insurance policy and not an investment. when i win betting on horses i buy gold and silver with the money no matter what the price is.

the stock market has declined the last 6 weeks and may have more legs to the downside for now, it looks like down is the path of least resistance for the time being until something changes.

RaceBookJoe
06-13-2011, 12:17 PM
PAAS has taken a bit of a hit since they elected a new leader in Puru. the guy is supposedly not as good for miners in that country.

alot is happening in the world today, gold seems to be stalled for the time being because their is some demand for the us dollar for now. i suspect that won't last to long, but gold can still fall below $1400 on a bad day before it hits my new target of $1740. i am not selling because i view gold as an insurance policy and not an investment. when i win betting on horses i buy gold and silver with the money no matter what the price is.

the stock market has declined the last 6 weeks and may have more legs to the downside for now, it looks like down is the path of least resistance for the time being until something changes.

Long term i see gold soaring, just like you do. I also think the US$ will be ok for the time being, not because it is "good", its just that i see the euro becoming non-existent. Its the old 300lb guy standing next to the 600 lb guy...the 300 lb guys looks skinny, but really isnt. With the exception of a few vehicles, this really seems like a "trader's market". QE2 runs out soon, debt ceiling hits on 8/2. Down is the path of least resistance like you say, so i will play it that way until something changes. Money is made quicker to the downside anyways. To make money long, buyers have to push up prices, but to make money short...buyers just have to step aside. rbj ps: Lambo, do you ever use any of the inverse or ultra etfs??

lamboguy
06-13-2011, 02:27 PM
Long term i see gold soaring, just like you do. I also think the US$ will be ok for the time being, not because it is "good", its just that i see the euro becoming non-existent. Its the old 300lb guy standing next to the 600 lb guy...the 300 lb guys looks skinny, but really isnt. With the exception of a few vehicles, this really seems like a "trader's market". QE2 runs out soon, debt ceiling hits on 8/2. Down is the path of least resistance like you say, so i will play it that way until something changes. Money is made quicker to the downside anyways. To make money long, buyers have to push up prices, but to make money short...buyers just have to step aside. rbj ps: Lambo, do you ever use any of the inverse or ultra etfs??
i hate all etf's period. their is to much management fees built into them.

it seems to me that bernanke is not going to do further quantitative easing, that should push the dollar down, and keep gold to either sideways or down. when the stock market and economy tanks he will step in with the quantitative easing and the gold will fly. remember one thing, paper currency is to fool people, gold is the real deal, its paper vs. gold and gold will win eventually.

PaceAdvantage
06-13-2011, 09:36 PM
Why would no further quantitative easing push the dollar even lower? Seems to me it should go the other way.

Quantitative easing = printing money (regardless of what it is used for) = dollar plunge.

ElKabong
06-14-2011, 12:07 AM
When i saw QE3 discussed, it brings to mind a local fmr CFO here locally that is a guest on a popular Sunday nite show here. Link below, last week had 2 one hour segments

May not be your cup of tea,--- the twang is hard for me to take, too.....but the past 3.5. yrs of listening to him has been quite a learning experience. He basically walked thru the machinations and every step of the fall of 2008 fiasco week-by-week at that time. The things that Mike spoke of, didn't get reported in national papers or outlets for weeks after he went into details of the fallout

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/category/watch-listen/overnight-with-charley-jones/

lamboguy
06-14-2011, 08:40 AM
Why would no further quantitative easing push the dollar even lower? Seems to me it should go the other way.

Quantitative easing = printing money (regardless of what it is used for) = dollar plunge.
you are right i meant to say no qe means dollar up. but it really doesn't matter for the long run, the dollar is being pulled down with a magnet.

of course whatever i am saying here is my opinion. it is no better or worse than handicapping a horse race. to me its the same thing with bigger action.

TJDave
06-14-2011, 05:02 PM
another thing that is happening is that there is a trend in mexico to monetize silver. they need approval from their congress which is in recess until september.


There's been talk of this for the better part of ten years. As a guess, what would you think they would value the 1oz, .999 fine "Libertad" coin? They currently have 10, 20 and 50 peso mixed metal coins in circulation with a center of 1/6, 1/4 and 1/2 oz of 92% silver, respectively. The 50 peso 1/2 ounce silver coin is currently worth app. $4.25 usd face value.

lamboguy
06-14-2011, 05:25 PM
its the same as a united states 90% silver coin pre 1964. they bring about 30% less than spot these days.

TJDave
06-14-2011, 05:37 PM
its the same as a united states 90% silver coin pre 1964. they bring about 30% less than spot these days.

No, I meant monetary valuation. The $4.25 is what 50 pesos buys in dollars...11.8 X 1

If Mexico valued the 1 oz silver coin what should it be, over and above the commodity price?

lamboguy
06-14-2011, 05:48 PM
No, I meant monetary valuation. The $4.25 is what 50 pesos buys in dollars...11.8 X 1

If Mexico valued the 1 oz silver coin what should it be, over and above the commodity price?i understand what you are saying, but i don't think they will value the coin in the way that you mean as a monetary deal that would bring as much as spot, something less.

if you are going to buy silver bullion coins i would reccomend you buy united states 1 oz eagles. right now they sell for about $4.00 more than spot and they are .9999. those are easier to sell and turn into cash if the market is moving with plenty of volitility up or down.

TJDave
06-14-2011, 06:13 PM
i understand what you are saying, but i don't think they will value the coin in the way that you mean as a monetary deal that would bring as much as spot, something less.


Isn't that what monetizing means?

A government officially internally values it's currency against a precious metal?

lamboguy
06-14-2011, 06:25 PM
Isn't that what monetizing means?

A government officially internally values it's currency against a precious metal?no arguement there, i was just saying if you live here you are better off holding .999 silver than mexican silver. but it is still bettter to have some silver than no silver at all.

the mexican deal is for domestic purposes, mexico also just bought a whole bunch of gold.

chickenhead
06-14-2011, 10:13 PM
I had the same question re: Mexico monetizing silver...it didn't make a lot of sense to me. Apparently the current proposal is that the central bank pegs the coin at some premium in regards to spot, I read something like 14% (a $50 silver price gives a $57 monetary value) and it would be re-priced upwards by the central bank if the silver price infringes on the monetary value. So it has a repricing window and some dead zone so the monetary value doesn't fluctuate daily.

It's like a very liquid ficticious silver market controlled by the government (sole issuer of the "premium silver") -- that gets repegged to the real silver market every few months, I guess.

RaceBookJoe
06-15-2011, 01:05 PM
Bad news in Europe moving the US$...our dollar still seems like the go-to place when the world gets jittery. rbj

Tom
06-18-2011, 12:39 PM
Hey lamboguy......GOLDFINGER is on USA network right now! ;)

lamboguy
06-18-2011, 12:50 PM
Hey lamboguy......GOLDFINGER is on USA network right now! ;)got it, thanks

lamboguy
06-21-2011, 08:13 AM
this guy Paulson, who runs the largest hedge fund just blew up $700 million on one equity a forestry company in china.

these hedge funds got big manangement fees hidden inside of them, you invest with hedge fun you will lose, but the manager will make money.

buy gold and you pay your juice up front and know what you are getting into before you start and no one is going to fool you either. all i hear on financial networks is how bad a deal gold is for you. me experience says it usually opposit what they say.

my mother taught me this: those that tell don't know, and those that know don't tell.

gold going to $1740

PaceAdvantage
06-21-2011, 10:48 AM
my mother taught me this: those that tell don't know, and those that know don't tell.

gold going to $1740Did you just TELL us (again) where gold is going? Does that mean, according to your momma's teachings, that you really don't know? :lol:

lamboguy
06-21-2011, 01:04 PM
Did you just TELL us (again) where gold is going? Does that mean, according to your momma's teachings, that you really don't know? :lol:
i called gold to $1600 in 2009, it has gotten to $1575 so far. i am just human, picking equities is as tougher than picking horses. its alot easier to pick a horse to win in a 12 horse field for me than to pick the direction of one particular stock or any other equity. so i guess you are right.

PaceAdvantage
06-21-2011, 05:51 PM
i called gold to $1600 in 2009, it has gotten to $1575 so far. i am just human, picking equities is as tougher than picking horses. its alot easier to pick a horse to win in a 12 horse field for me than to pick the direction of one particular stock or any other equity. so i guess you are right.That was a joke man. You need a sense of humor if you are going to be trading these things...lol

What do you think is going to happen tomorrow with the Fed announcement?

lamboguy
06-21-2011, 08:08 PM
That was a joke man. You need a sense of humor if you are going to be trading these things...lol

What do you think is going to happen tomorrow with the Fed announcement?
i suspect that interest rates will stay down. the real thing that bothers me is that we all know there is no such thing as a free lunch. i have a mortgage that is based on the libor. my rate for the last 3 years is 1.75%. i am only paying principle. that is a joke

back to the fed, this guy likes news conferences, i have no idea who in their right minds will buy these rotten bonds. i know the chineese are still buying, but they must have something up their sleeve. personally i think that will be another round of fed bond buying in some shape or form.

the end result is going to be that this government is going to sell some of their assets to payoff the chineese, and then figure out how to screw them out of the stuff they sell them down the line.

greece is going to have to sell their airports, bridges rodes and whatever to pay what they owe. they are going to have to figure out something too, or maybe just default. the u.s. can't default. they can't even raise taxes here to pay off what they owe because the corporations will just leave this place for good for better deals overseas.

NoDayJob
06-21-2011, 08:39 PM
this guy Paulson, who runs the largest hedge fund just blew up $700 million on one equity a forestry company in china.

these hedge funds got big manangement fees hidden inside of them, you invest with hedge fun you will lose, but the manager will make money.

buy gold and you pay your juice up front and know what you are getting into before you start and no one is going to fool you either. all i hear on financial networks is how bad a deal gold is for you. me experience says it usually opposit what they say.

my mother taught me this: those that tell don't know, and those that know don't tell.

gold going to $1740

President Roosevelt closed the banks and stopped U.S. citizens from owning
gold in 1933. Prior to that gold's dollar value, per troy ounce, was $20.67.
Prices remained fairly stable, before the devaluation of the dollar, except for
occasional shortages.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing
power since 1933. If you multiply $20.67 times 50 then gold's monetary
value would be worth $1033.50. Have average dollar prices gone up 50 times
since 1933? You make the call! You'll see what the monetary value of gold
really is, in dollars.

lamboguy
06-21-2011, 09:22 PM
sometimes markets anticipate things ahead of time. while gold is priced in dollars, it is not always an inverse of what the dollar is. gold right now is at the highs vs plenty of other currencies worldwide.

plainolebill
06-22-2011, 01:35 AM
I guess I'd need to know the proportion of gold to world population, 1933 and 2011.

lamboguy
06-23-2011, 11:47 PM
today bernanke anounced no QE3 or 4 or 5. gold tanked about $30 bringing silver, platinum and all the other precious metals with it. this announcement was probably the best thing that could have happened to gold even though it dropped pretty strong. the way i see it, these guys at making the decisions of what to do are going to lose the confidence of the rest of the world. the worst thing that could happen is that a month for now bernanke has his news conference and anounces another round of QE in one form or another. at this point gold should skyrocket over and above numbers that i never dreamed of before. when bernanke talks about inflation he is just a code word for gold. inflation and gold are synonomis with each other. oil has dropped from $110 the barrel down to $90. the government might have sold some of its "strategic reserves" to bring the price down. not sure on that one but very possible. we live in a world where perception is the law of the land. the public constantly keeps getting fooled by their leaders. when the publice figures out what is going on all hell will let lose here with the currency.

i strongly urge anyone that has some type of a portfollio that they carry some portion of it in gold. curently i am about 110% in gold soon to go to 150%

newtothegame
06-23-2011, 11:51 PM
today bernanke anounced no QE3 or 4 or 5. gold tanked about $30 bringing silver, platinum and all the other precious metals with it. this announcement was probably the best thing that could have happened to gold even though it dropped pretty strong. the way i see it, these guys at making the decisions of what to do are going to lose the confidence of the rest of the world. the worst thing that could happen is that a month for now bernanke has his news conference and anounces another round of QE in one form or another. at this point gold should skyrocket over and above numbers that i never dreamed of before. when bernanke talks about inflation he is just a code word for gold. inflation and gold are synonomis with each other. oil has dropped from $110 the barrel down to $90. the government might have sold some of its "strategic reserves" to bring the price down. not sure on that one but very possible. we live in a world where perception is the law of the land. the public constantly keeps getting fooled by their leaders. when the publice figures out what is going on all hell will let lose here with the currency.

i strongly urge anyone that has some type of a portfollio that they carry some portion of it in gold. curently i am about 110% in gold soon to go to 150%

I am sure I probably misread something here lambo....But how can you be anything above 100% in your portfolio???
I take this to mean you are ALL IN GOLD?

Robert Goren
06-23-2011, 11:57 PM
Gold lost $33 or about 2% today. A buying opportunity?

lamboguy
06-23-2011, 11:59 PM
I am sure I probably misread something here lambo....But how can you be anything above 100% in your portfolio???
I take this to mean you are ALL IN GOLD?
i sold some silver 2 months ago, and bought gold below $1500. i will sell some portion of gold at $1740 when it reaches there. good strong bull markets have never gone strait up without haveing consolidation's . gold has been doing that the last 10 years.

PaceAdvantage
06-24-2011, 12:02 AM
Gold lost $33 or about 2% today. A buying opportunity?I'm going to state the obvious...and that is...gold has already topped out...

What could happen that could send gold CRASHING down? Whatever that is, look for it to happen...

Robert Goren
06-24-2011, 12:24 AM
I'm going to state the obvious...and that is...gold has already topped out...

What could happen that could send gold CRASHING down? Whatever that is, look for it to happen...The answer is nothing. Gold generally goes up when something happens. When nothing happens for a while, gold starts to slide. In this case the end of QE II is the beginning of nothing happening. But the world is a dangerous place and something could happen at anytime to sending the price upward.
This is my best impression of the kind of mumble jumbo that you hear CNBC or Fox Business. I haven't clue about where the price of gold is going.

PaceAdvantage
06-24-2011, 12:32 AM
If something were to happen to send Gold to the moon, your quality of life is going to end up in the shitter anyway....

Although I wouldn't trade it with your money, I say this bubble is about to pop something fierce. NOTHING goes up forever without some major PAIN along the way...

The beginning of the end of the gold run started when you began to see all these ads on TV telling everyone to buy gold...buy gold...buy gold...

Life just doesn't work this way, and the financial markets CERTAINLY don't work this way...once EVERYONE starts piling on, that's the time to BAIL...

Gold has TOPPED. I say it goes back to at least $1,000 before it sees another high anytime soon.

Now, back to my question...what could make the price of gold accelerate its descent? Why did it drop so much today?

lamboguy
06-24-2011, 08:25 AM
the 200 week moving average on gold is close to $1100 right now, so it is trading 35% above it, which is a huge number right now. it is scary to say the least if you hold gold. unfortunately i don't see gold as being in a bubble. the reason for that is that less than 1% of the world's population is holding gold right now. when everyone is all done piling into anything, its always time to bail out. that hasn't happened yet. it happened in the real estate market in this country and in certain area's it is down 70% off the top.

gold is the only bailout for our government to save our quality of life. gold needs to go much higher to save us so we can pay our bills with the stuff. high gold prices will mean high inflation.

NoDayJob
06-24-2011, 02:42 PM
i strongly urge anyone that has some type of a portfollio that they carry some portion of it in gold. curently i am about 110% in gold soon to go to 150%

I'd be very careful about investing in any assets right now as all asset classes
world wide, save cash [fiat] are moving together. The trend is down... deflation
is starting phase II.

Spiderman
06-24-2011, 05:36 PM
If something were to happen to send Gold to the moon, your quality of life is going to end up in the shitter anyway....

Although I wouldn't trade it with your money, I say this bubble is about to pop something fierce. NOTHING goes up forever without some major PAIN along the way...

The beginning of the end of the gold run started when you began to see all these ads on TV telling everyone to buy gold...buy gold...buy gold...

Life just doesn't work this way, and the financial markets CERTAINLY don't work this way...once EVERYONE starts piling on, that's the time to BAIL...

Gold has TOPPED. I say it goes back to at least $1,000 before it sees another high anytime soon.

Now, back to my question...what could make the price of gold accelerate its descent? Why did it drop so much today?

Announced withdrawing of armed forces from Afghanistan. I remember when gold prices soared fro $200 to $800+ in the mid-70's, due to the regime change in Iran. Reagan stated that he would get the price back to $200 and it did go back to that level.

lamboguy
06-24-2011, 07:09 PM
I'd be very careful about investing in any assets right now as all asset classes
world wide, save cash [fiat] are moving together. The trend is down... deflation
is starting phase II.
gold is not an investment it is an insurance policy. can it go back to $1200, the answer is YES, but will it go back and break prior highs, that is also a YES. anyone that thinks this is a bubble is fooling themselves on this one. in fact even if we are going into deflation that will not be bad for gold either.

newtothegame
06-24-2011, 08:18 PM
gold is not an investment it is an insurance policy. can it go back to $1200, the answer is YES, but will it go back and break prior highs, that is also a YES. anyone that thinks this is a bubble is fooling themselves on this one. in fact even if we are going into deflation that will not be bad for gold either.

Hoping "whitey bulger" didnt give ya that info......:lol:

JK....hope ya have a nice investment!

Dick Schmidt
06-25-2011, 06:24 AM
The ad on the bottom of this page is from an outfit called "Goldline", which reads "Now is the time to buy gold!"

Just thought it was ironic.

Dick


It'salways darkest before dawn, so if you're going to steal your neighbor'snewspaper, that's the time to do it.

lamboguy
06-25-2011, 07:11 AM
it looks like the s+p is in some type of trouble these days. the leadership stocks all look like are in the middle of doing huge leg downs. united technologies had been unstopable for years, cat looks pretty weak too. while these are going down it looks like the gold mining stocks have put in their bottoms and most look higher judging by the action this week. the leaders in that sector have shown signs of strength AEM, GOLD, NEM,ABX. i don't know if that will spill over to the actual metal though. the last low in gold was $1460, we will have to see if gold holds that number for now. my observation is that it is building cause for a huge leg up. most equities make tests on an ongoing basis. if the equity can't break lows it heads up, if it can't break thru highs it heads down. equities all travel to path of least resistance, meaning strong hands or very weak ones.

when trading stocks i always want to look at the day,week or month that had the last highest volume. those times tend to bring those stocks to or back to those points like a magnet. the commodity markets are different especially in gold these days. on the comex i try to pay attention to open interest in something and not really the number of contrackts that are traded on any particular timeframe. but gold is a pretty rigged game where the main players are bullion banks and large countries.

PaceAdvantage
06-29-2011, 02:38 AM
My gut is saying this run up in the market these past few days seems contrived. They are all banking on the Greek vote going a certain way.

Something tells me all is not what it seems. I smell a monkey wrench that could bring the indexes crashing back down to Earth.

But then again, I'm a trader and I don't predict when it comes time to lay my money on the line...I only react.

Is this another classic "Buy the rumor, sell the news" type of setup? And if the news isn't good, you'd better really look out below...

lamboguy
06-29-2011, 07:23 AM
i think the thing to keep your eye on is the long bond. it has "topped out" over a year ago at 145, now its trading 125. the secular bull run in bonds has been since 1983. its the longest running bull market that i have ever seen. as strong as gold is, its still only a 10 year run so far. i would think if bonds drop below 120 it would be very bad for the s+p.

with all this talk about no more QE, the bubble callers in gold have only been able to drag it down $60 from the top. i actually like gold a whole not more right here and right now than i did when it was $600 per ounce. with the inevitable restructuring of the EURO gold should have fallen $500 already. there are other dynamic's involved with gold, mainly the people's republic of china. they are the worlds largest producers of gold and also the largest buyer's of gold assets in the open markets.

gold miners are basically in a state if depression right now, some of them look like they have put in some very solid bottoms, such as south aftican miners Gold Fields GFI, and Harmony gold HMY Newmont Mining NEM, and Rangold GOLD, look like buy's here.

Saratoga_Mike
06-29-2011, 09:45 AM
My gut is saying this run up in the market these past few days seems contrived. They are all banking on the Greek vote going a certain way.

Something tells me all is not what it seems. I smell a monkey wrench that could bring the indexes crashing back down to Earth.

But then again, I'm a trader and I don't predict when it comes time to lay my money on the line...I only react.

Is this another classic "Buy the rumor, sell the news" type of setup? And if the news isn't good, you'd better really look out below...

I'm not good at making s-t mkt calls (if you're a trader, you're probably much better), but I agree with you here. Junk debt hasn't rallied much at all over the past few days. If you look at junk, the S&P should be at 1260, imo.

Valuist
06-29-2011, 09:52 AM
Its funny but when gold commercials started popping up on TV, the so-called experts said that marked the top.

Then the Cash for Gold stores started popping up, and the same "experts" said that this would definitively be the end for gold.

I haven't seen any of these gold stores close their doors.

lamboguy
06-29-2011, 10:02 AM
the experts have been wrong about this gold market now for over a decade, and will be wrong for the next decade.

gold going to $1740 on this run and more than likely alot higher than i even expect

lamboguy
06-30-2011, 08:26 AM
in the last decade gold has gone from $250 an ounce to $1500 the ounce, a 6 bagger. so a guy here pm'd me and asked me if i could be wrong about gold.

the only way i can possibly answer that is to back over 30 years because that is the prior bull run on gold. throughout the years gold has always been in cyclical bull markets, while today it is in the middle of a secular bull. when you look back to 1980 when gold crashed and burned it was trading over $800 per ounce. gold had come from a base of $35 per ounce and had over a twenty fold rise. at the time of the crash the 200 week moving average was less than $100 per ounce, so when it got to $800 it was 8 times that number. that proved that gold was only in a cyclicle bull and it crashed. today the 200 week moving average is $1100 per ounce and gold is only trading around 35% above that number.

when i trade i use alot more tools than the 200 week, but to judge long term stuff and try to figure out if the equity is in a bubble or not, there is no better tool.

lamboguy
06-30-2011, 11:11 AM
as we can see now in the country of GREECE. that country owes 160% of their gross national product. what they just voted in the other day is that the solution that they have come up with is to increase that debt to 170%, with the future generations resposnsible to pay. that future generation cannot get jobs today, and they are now rioting in the steets. this is going to spread from greece over to portugal, spain, italy, ireland. when its done there it will ultimately follow into the grand daddy of them all, the good old USA, the difference is that we have the world's printing presses and will continue to print. the world has no choice now. but as far as the people in this world goes, they own less than 1% of the total gold reserves above ground now. if they buy gold, it will skyrocket beyond belief. the last few government auctions on treasury instruments have not been that strong as in the past few years. could this be the start of the changing of guard? maybe

if you think i am wrong then go sell all your gold and turn them into paper assets and have a party.

lamboguy
07-07-2011, 10:40 PM
Have you thought about all the dramatics now taking center stage in the media? What compromise will be adopted that will allow for the US to avoid default by raising the debt ceiling?

Raising the debt ceiling is the problem and not by at means a solution. The race between dropping revenues and increasing costs will not be settled by politicians that do not even understand the problem.

The resignations of key economic personalities in the present Administration is systematic of the solid nature of the downward spiral that has gripped Western finances since the failure of OTC derivatives turned a normal recession into a long term depression.

There is no event that will turn the tide of the ramifications for poor economic management. Nothing can stop Gold, Silver, the Swiss and the Cando now.

The present drama of tax increases and spending cuts, like the release of oil, means nothing whatsoever even in the medium term.

The damage is done as the damage is cumulative. Day to day events are irrelevant. Day to day market activity is interesting but meaningless.

The dye is caste. All we can hope is that gold is not headed to $12,500.

PaceAdvantage
07-08-2011, 12:19 AM
I was wrong about the Greek vote and the market run up it seems.

Now let's see how wrong I was about Gold...1565 is right around the corner...if it passes that, I was wrong again...which is why I don't trade Gold... :lol:

lamboguy
07-08-2011, 12:46 AM
I was wrong about the Greek vote and the market run up it seems.

Now let's see how wrong I was about Gold...1565 is right around the corner...if it passes that, I was wrong again...which is why I don't trade Gold... :lol:don't trade gold, just hold it. these markets fool the best of us traders, but one thing for sure, the markets have been a paradise in the last 20 years for traders. the buy and holders have paid the price. but going forward i see markets that have steady direction worldwide. the s+p can go on a big run with all the emerging markets out there. and one more thing, look at gold as stored value. i have learned the hardway that there is little else in the world that can say that. i have seen the best of company's go under in my lifetime, general motors, pan american airlines, polaroid, digital equipment, eastern airlines. i have never seen gold go bancrupt yet!

Robert Goren
07-08-2011, 08:04 AM
The good thing about Gold is that is not a corporations. No need to worry about about crooks cooking the books like at Enron, although you probably should have a little concern about who ever is storing it for you. Crooks have a way of worming their way into any place where there is anything resembling money.

lamboguy
07-09-2011, 03:31 AM
the unemployment rate supposedly only shot up to 9.5% today. of course i suspect its probably something like double that. laura tyson, whom i though was pretty sharp during her years with clinton, proclaimed that what the united states needs is more infrastructure jobs. i highly doubt that she believes what she just said. what this country needs is to take its goods and services to foreign country's that are made and taxed in this country and bring home the revenue and spread it around. the economy in this country for the size that it is has very little backbone to it. it is basically crumbling right in front of laura tyson's eyes and she does know it. there has been very little growth in our economy now for about the last 15 years.

with all that being said, and the united states dollar still the reserve currency of the world, gold priced in united states dollars is only 6 times the price it was 12 years ago. i find that completely insane. the bankers and central governments are in a conspiracy to hold the price of gold down for now. what i have learned in markets my whole life is that no one man is large enough to control a market and even though gold is fighting a major uphill battle against the status quo of the world, eventually gold will win out.

plainolebill
07-09-2011, 03:49 AM
If congress and the administration did something unexpected and sensible like passing Bowles-Simpson, gold would drop like a rock. No worries, gold is safe.

lamboguy
07-09-2011, 05:02 AM
there is a PAN ASIA EXCHANGE that is about to open that will specialise in silver. there are very few silver mines in the world today, most of the silver that is mined is a byproduct of lead, zinc and gold. i truly wonder where the silver is going to come from to keep this exchange open. today silver is $36 the ounce, i say over $100 in the short future.

truthfully, what ever bill either the congress or the executive branch dreams up to try to supress the value of gold is not going to mean a hill of beans. china is buying up farmland all over the world and in this country. our government borrow'a from the chineese and the rest of the world the money it spends. eventually they won't be able to borrow money. so we are going to be selling our assets to pay what we owe to these governments until we say uncle. this is the way i see things, i suppose i could be completely wrong and someone or a group of someones is much smarter than myself and they have better answers for the problems than what i have. if there is a such person, i hope they step up to the plate real soon.

lamboguy
07-11-2011, 10:58 AM
this exchange is opening by the end of this month. the chineese securities regulation's comittee is behind it. this is a game changer folks. china wants to be where the united states is now. there is going to be major shortages of gold and silver once this thing is open.

i strongly urge that anyone that has their assets in treasury bills or bank accounts to get with the program and buy a small percentage of your assets in physical metals before you can't buy them.

the pan asia exchange is the bigest thing that i have ever seen to hit the precious metals markets.it is 10,000 times bigger than the hunt brothers were over 30 years ago.

Robert Goren
07-11-2011, 11:18 AM
this exchange is opening by the end of this month. the chineese securities regulation's comittee is behind it. this is a game changer folks. china wants to be where the united states is now. there is going to be major shortages of gold and silver once this thing is open.

i strongly urge that anyone that has their assets in treasury bills or bank accounts to get with the program and buy a small percentage of your assets in physical metals before you can't buy them.

the pan asia exchange is the bigest thing that i have ever seen to hit the precious metals markets.it is 10,000 times bigger than the hunt brothers were over 30 years ago.It is bad enough to have to deal with American crooks, but now to deal Chinese crooks too. This sort reminds of the US poker players who are still looking for foreign internet sites to take their money.

lamboguy
07-12-2011, 02:40 PM
a few skeptics have been waiting for gold to surpass tht $1570 to get on board. your time has come, protect yourself!

PaceAdvantage
07-12-2011, 03:01 PM
Was the official close above 1565? I am reading 1562 as the closing price today (it's up higher in after hours trading)...

I smell a trap...gonna wait for it to close markedly above 1565 for at least another day or two before I deliver my concession speech...

lamboguy
07-12-2011, 03:26 PM
Was the official close above 1565? I am reading 1562 as the closing price today (it's up higher in after hours trading)...

I smell a trap...gonna wait for it to close markedly above 1565 for at least another day or two before I deliver my concession speech...$1563 on the comex is correct, and usually the after hours in gold means nothing. it shot up as a reaction to the fed minutes.

trust me on this one, you arent going to win trading gold in the short run, it trades against any system known to man. but it is so strong for long run that the only thing that can stop it is an act of god. there is no republican going to come into office and masquerade as a president that will stop it either, they will probably get it move up further.

lamboguy
07-13-2011, 05:59 AM
watching the trading of gold yesterday i saw that every time gold got below $1500 there were buyers right there scooping it up. i don't know if that had anything to do with the knowledge of what was in those fed minutes ahead of time or not. my take is that someone always knows something more than i do, that is why technical analysis is very useful. none the less it looks like $1550 is support for gold at the moment, the levels below it all have small increments unerneath $1550, like $1520 appears to be quite strong as well.but it really doesn't matter in the long run. my target remains $1740 for the metal and i must say that is rather a conservetive one. my top gold stocks remain, IAG, KGC,GFI and a royalty company RGLD for the more pure play on the metal itself. the more i read about gold the more i see that there are more experts negetive on it. so naturally i am not an expert and could be completely wrong. but for those of you that know me, i have been touting these precious metals since the day George Bush got elected as president here. Gold was selling for $247 an ounce that day. i am actually more bullish now on these metals than i was back then. if and when gold does make it to the $2700-$3000 area you will see some rather large movement to the upside. the thing about gold is that it is always going to be fought by the bankers and politians to keep the price down, so in turn you will always have some pretty wild price action to them. your tax rate on gold is treated as earned income no matter how long you hold the stuff. but you can identify it as a 1031 exchange one metal against the other. for instance if you want play a gold to silver ratio, gold is now trading over 40 times the price of silver. the lowersy ratio in years was a 30-1, which i believe will be retested again. so you could swap out the gold now for silver and have no tax consequence if you report it properly.










g

lamboguy
07-13-2011, 12:16 PM
what i am doing now is paying close attention to the open interest on the gold contract. right now it has 500,000 contracts outstanding. if gold does reach 1609 and carries that large an open interest it will be on its way to the $1740 number that i have been talking about. if open interest declines i will cut back my position in gold based on the amount of the cut back in interest, i am only doing this because people are more interested in where something is going and not where its been.

JBmadera
07-13-2011, 12:27 PM
been adding to my MITK position, moves to the nasdaq tomorrow, love the space (mobile banking) this one is certainly a takeover target.

my only play on gold is TRX

lamboguy
07-13-2011, 12:49 PM
been adding to my MITK position, moves to the nasdaq tomorrow, love the space (mobile banking) this one is certainly a takeover target.

my only play on gold is TRX
you got the riight on there. sinclair gonna get that stock to $50 within 2 years

lamboguy
07-13-2011, 01:50 PM
for those looking at the comex close on gold today it was $1584. i suspect that people looking at closes will wait for the close on friday which tend to be wild days in the gold market and then they will be looking at the monthly close.

lamboguy
07-13-2011, 10:26 PM
i played the silver gold ratio today and will stay with it until it becomes 30-1. i shorted gold and went long an equal dollar amount of silver. i did this in the paper market so it really has nothing to do with the actual physical metals that i continue to hold.

the real lottery tickets are in gold miners and royalty company's. i highly suspect that things will take off faster and higher than the EMC's, microsoft's, and cisco system"s of the 90's.

of course all this is just my own personal opinion that i am sharing with you here. it certainly does not mean that i am entirely correct even though i have been pretty spot on in this market since i have become a member here. past performance does not guarantee future performance by any means.

my advice is coming to you at a very cheap price so take it for whatever its worth probably zero.

Robert Goren
07-13-2011, 10:43 PM
I am not so sure I agree with the idea that silver is just a poor man's gold. That seems to be some of what is driving the silver market right now.

Robert Goren
07-13-2011, 10:48 PM
I have a question. If I were to buy gold right now, what with the commissions, storage fees, etc would the price have to go to in order to break even. I am not going to buy any gold because I don't have any money, but I was just wondering.

lamboguy
07-13-2011, 10:53 PM
i buy united states $50 eagle one ounce coins. the premium that i pay is 4% over the spot price, i can sell back to the dealer that i bought them from for 3% over spot. you can buy smaller denominatios like one tenth of an ounce coins. i paid 9% over spot for those and can sell back for 7% above.

lamboguy
07-13-2011, 10:57 PM
I am not so sure I agree with the idea that silver is just a poor man's gold. That seems to be some of what is driving the silver market right now.they are using alot of silver now for solar panel's, and these flat top television screens.

silver got killed in the 1990's because they stopped using the stuff for film, but now there are plenty of other uses. silver is always a more risky play compared to gold vs. the united states dollar. what is interesting is that gold is not only at its highs against us dollar but at highs against most currency's worldwide. that is the case for massive exceleration to the upside on your gold these days. time will give us the answers.

lamboguy
07-14-2011, 08:56 AM
i see that gold hit $1599 last night, which incidenally was the target from JUST RALPH HERE. it didn't get to $1600 and it has pulled back $10 here.

my new target is going to be $1740. there could be a retracement coming at around the $1610- $1640 area. retracements are healthy but it could pull all the way back to under $1500 and scare you into thinking that you made a bad move. this is the way that markets work. strong stuff moves step by step and not parabolic straight lines. what happened last week was that strong buying came in anytime gold fell below $1550 that is called support.

gold is still as strong as i have ever seen anything in my life now.

ArlJim78
07-14-2011, 10:38 AM
interesting, albeit somewhat concerning fact presented at zerohedge;

the total amount of claims on paper money are anywhere from 8.8 to 24 times the actual amount of paper money in existence.

In other words when (or if) a bank run ever happened in this country, you really need to be near the very front of the line in order to not be shut out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/what-american-bank-run-would-look

lamboguy
07-14-2011, 11:26 PM
ok for my gold update today. it seems like gold has died on the vine at $1599 for now. when i take a good look at it, gold at $1616 represents a 1-1.618 move, which usually calls for an imediate trend reversal using fibornacci. the only problem is it all depends on what numbers you are using to get there. the $1616 is a very short term number. if that is the way the market is trading in gold, then the gold could bet smacked down to under $1500 in a heart beat and have nothing wrong with it at all. i know that must sound pretty confusing to some, bottom line is that if you hold gold today, it will be worth alot more vs. us dollar by the end of the year.

highnote
07-14-2011, 11:42 PM
I just posted the following in a new thread, but maybe it can get answered here:

"Gold transactions

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I read in our local paper that it is illegal in Connecticut to use cash in gold transactions. Only checks or money orders can be used.

A local merchant was arrested for buying gold for cash and not issuing a receipt and he did not have a license to buy or sell gold.

Does anyone know if it is illegal to use cash to buy or sell gold in other states?"

plainolebill
07-15-2011, 04:58 AM
I know it it's legal in Oregon because I've bought gold from a dealer here for cash.

lamboguy
07-15-2011, 01:29 PM
comex gold close for the week is $1590

i know we are going to have to wait for the monthly for confirmation!

Saratoga_Mike
07-15-2011, 03:10 PM
Without a rate CUT in the very short term, I believe the EU (not just the PIIGS) will enter a sharp downturn in the next few qtrs. If you look at Euribor (think LIBOR but just for European banks) and Euro-based swap spreads, you'll see very real stresses in the European financial system. Apparently ECB head JCT has his head in the sand.

lamboguy
07-15-2011, 03:16 PM
Without a rate CUT in the very short term, I believe the EU (not just the PIIGS) will enter a sharp downturn in the next few qtrs. If you look at Euribor (think LIBOR but just for European banks) and Euro-based swap spreads, you'll see very real stresses in the European financial system. Apparently ECB head JCT has his head in the sand.i don't think that trouchet is any worse than bernanke. the only difference is that the us got the printing presses going for it and the euro don't. ultimately though, i think the us dollar is going to go to hell and people that have put their money in treasury bills and banks will get wiped out quickly. try getting someone to believe you on this and they will tell you the conservetives are going to be in power and everything will be hunky dory.

Saratoga_Mike
07-15-2011, 03:19 PM
i don't think that trouchet is any worse than bernanke. the only difference is that the us got the printing presses going for it and the euro don't. ultimately though, i think the us dollar is going to go to hell and people that have put their money in treasury bills and banks will get wiped out quickly. try getting someone to believe you on this and they will tell you the conservetives are going to be in power and everything will be hunky dory.

Trichet has no idea what he's doing. I can't decide if the ECB or the BoJ is more clueless. Hell, it's the BoJ.

lamboguy
07-15-2011, 03:24 PM
in the scope of things, it really doesn't matter how stupid or smart these guys are, china LOVES GOLD as much as MR GOLDFINGER. to protect yourself that is really all you have to know these days.

Saratoga_Mike
07-15-2011, 03:27 PM
in the scope of things, it really doesn't matter how stupid or smart these guys are, china LOVES GOLD as much as MR GOLDFINGER. to protect yourself that is really all you have to know these days.

China's banking system is a disaster, imo. People like to cite their massive reserves. Fine, what did the United States' reserves look like in 1929?

lamboguy
07-15-2011, 03:35 PM
China's banking system is a disaster, imo. People like to cite their massive reserves. Fine, what did the United States' reserves look like in 1929?just like the chineese banking system looks today, but they are accumulating gold now. its in the chineese best interest to keep the dollar around even if it gets alot weaker. this stuff is pretty predictable with the sellout policy's of bill clinton and george bush jr. the guy we have now is completly lost after those 2 guys, he never had a chance, and the next guy will have less of a chance.

Saratoga_Mike
07-15-2011, 03:36 PM
just like the chineese banking system looks today, but they are accumulating gold now. its in the chineese best interest to keep the dollar around even if it gets alot weaker. this stuff is pretty predictable with the sellout policy's of bill clinton and george bush jr. the guy we have now is completly lost after those 2 guys, he never had a chance, and the next guy will have less of a chance.

I don't care about gold. I can make more money in other places. You've made a very good call on gold, though!

lamboguy
07-15-2011, 03:38 PM
mike its not about making money, its about stored value. i was hoping that i am wrong about gold. the function of gold is to protect you against stupid governments. you can fool people with all the paper in the world, gold is real.

Saratoga_Mike
07-15-2011, 03:41 PM
mike its not about making money, its about stored value. i was hoping that i am wrong about gold. the function of gold is to protect you against stupid governments. you can fool people with all the paper in the world, gold is real.

No, it's about making money. I'm saying I can make more money in other asset classes (namely small-cap stocks) than in gold, even if I translate my gains into other currencies. You, on the other hand, may be much more successful with gold over stocks (I don't know). I'm not arguing your gold trade, just not for me. I wish you continued success.

lamboguy
07-15-2011, 04:01 PM
No, it's about making money. I'm saying I can make more money in other asset classes (namely small-cap stocks) than in gold, even if I translate my gains into other currencies. You, on the other hand, may be much more successful with gold over stocks (I don't know). I'm not arguing your gold trade, just not for me. I wish you continued success.
i am diversified, i also own gold stocks. those stocks have charts that come from hunger too.

PaceAdvantage
07-15-2011, 05:06 PM
Uncle.

Saratoga_Mike
07-15-2011, 09:04 PM
Uncle.

I take it you've decided to convert your entire net worth into gold! Save a few soon-to-be-worthless US dollars for wagering at Saratoga - they don't take bets in gold --- yet.

PaceAdvantage
07-16-2011, 11:27 PM
I take it you've decided to convert your entire net worth into gold! Save a few soon-to-be-worthless US dollars for wagering at Saratoga - they don't take bets in gold --- yet.Not quite. And you know, now that I think about it, I'm not through with being a bit of a bear on Gold either.

It's about to kiss $1,600. That's a nice, big, fat, round psychological level. The kind of number that might turn into major resistance.

Wasn't lamboguy's original target somewhere around $1,600? I know he's revised it lately to $1,700+.

Maybe $1,600 is where the shit will hit the fan. Of course, I have no vested interest in this whole thing, so it's easy for me to talk... :lol:

Robert Fischer
07-16-2011, 11:43 PM
supply n demand has gold @ 5X the cost of the means of production

time 2 sell

thaskalos
07-16-2011, 11:53 PM
I sold all my Krugerands...and used the money to buy Greek government bonds.

I think it might be the next "big thing"...:)

Robert Fischer
07-17-2011, 12:46 AM
buy interest rates ;)

lamboguy
07-17-2011, 03:05 AM
what got me interested in gold?

about 10 years ago i had bought a $20 ST. GAUDEN one ounce gold piece for roughly around $300. the next day i was going out with this gal and she had a haricut, she told me she paid $300 for the haircut. i stared at her and and stared at my newly purchased gold coin. right then and there i knew the gold coin was the way to go. i proceeded to study the gold market from years past along with other markets throughout the history of the world including the dutch tullip market of 1600's that ended up in a bubble that ultimately crashes. i became very interested in fibornacci. that is a mathematical expansion contraction theory that takes into account human emotions, meaning fear and greed. if you follow this theory it will help you to pinpoint the areas that are likely for different trend reversals in anything in life. it can even help you with training horses. if a horse gets trained wrong and you ask him to do to much all at once, he will crash and burn. example, if you work a horse 4 furlongs one day and next week you go a mile, the horse will have some type of a problem, mental or physical. the same with markets, they cannot go up in straight lines for ever. when they go parabolic, they crash at some point. every market that i have ever studdied has done that including the dutch tulip market of the 1600's.

i bring that up because i have never seen a bull market ever before like this gold bull market that i believe we are in the early innings of. the market climbls the wall of worry with plenty of skeptics every step of the way. there really hasn't been an expert in markets that has been close to predicting it either. but this great bull market in gold makes 5 steps forward and 4 steps backwards every single time it moves. all that really means is that there is always going to be some type of major support for the stuff no matter how fast a central banker can get the price of gold pushed back. by nature gold operates in cyclical patterns for the last 5000 years. there have been a few times where gold price has been in a bull market for longer than 10 years. the bull market that we are in now is probably going to be at least a 30 year run from what i see. not many things go up for 30 straight years, but the us treasury markets have been up since 1983 now, so i would say that is close. if indeed my assesment on gold is correct, then 30 years would be a piece of cake.

Saratoga_Mike
07-17-2011, 01:43 PM
Not quite. And you know, now that I think about it, I'm not through with being a bit of a bear on Gold either.

It's about to kiss $1,600. That's a nice, big, fat, round psychological level. The kind of number that might turn into major resistance.

Wasn't lamboguy's original target somewhere around $1,600? I know he's revised it lately to $1,700+.

Maybe $1,600 is where the shit will hit the fan. Of course, I have no vested interest in this whole thing, so it's easy for me to talk... :lol:

I share your skepticism about gold. In general, I don't buy gold stocks or resource/energy stocks. And instituting a gold standard at this point in history would be disasterous (see Europe where the Euro is a de facto gold standard imposed on dysfunctional economies).

Saratoga_Mike
07-17-2011, 01:46 PM
what got me interested in gold?

i bring that up because i have never seen a bull market ever before like this gold bull market that i believe we are in the early innings of. the market climbls the wall of worry with plenty of skeptics every step of the way. there really hasn't been an expert in markets that has been close to predicting it either. but this great bull market in gold makes 5 steps forward and 4 steps backwards every single time it moves. all that really means is that there is always going to be some type of major support for the stuff no matter how fast a central banker can get the price of gold pushed back. by nature gold operates in cyclical patterns for the last 5000 years. there have been a few times where gold price has been in a bull market for longer than 10 years. the bull market that we are in now is probably going to be at least a 30 year run from what i see. not many things go up for 30 straight years, but the us treasury markets have been up since 1983 now, so i would say that is close. if indeed my assesment on gold is correct, then 30 years would be a piece of cake.

Ck out the US stock market from 1982 to 2000.

lamboguy
07-17-2011, 01:58 PM
Ck out the US stock market from 1982 to 2000.
that was a great bull market, but the treasury market was 27 years, and gold will probably be a lot longer than the treasury's.

Robert Fischer
07-17-2011, 02:19 PM
i hope gold takes u to the moon Lambo...

i just can't get past my labour economics

we are gonna produce 2 million kilos of gold at a price of $325 per ounce this year.

sammy the sage
07-17-2011, 08:48 PM
what got me interested in gold?

about 10 years ago i had bought a $20 ST. GAUDEN one ounce gold piece for roughly around $300. the next day i was going out with this gal and she had a haricut, she told me she paid $300 for the haircut. i stared at her and and stared at my newly purchased gold coin. right then and there i knew the gold coin was the way to go. i proceeded to study the gold market from years past along with other markets throughout the history of the world including the dutch tullip market of 1600's that ended up in a bubble that ultimately crashes. i became very interested in fibornacci. that is a mathematical expansion contraction theory that takes into account human emotions, meaning fear and greed. if you follow this theory it will help you to pinpoint the areas that are likely for different trend reversals in anything in life. it can even help you with training horses. if a horse gets trained wrong and you ask him to do to much all at once, he will crash and burn. example, if you work a horse 4 furlongs one day and next week you go a mile, the horse will have some type of a problem, mental or physical. the same with markets, they cannot go up in straight lines for ever. when they go parabolic, they crash at some point. every market that i have ever studdied has done that including the dutch tulip market of the 1600's.

i bring that up because i have never seen a bull market ever before like this gold bull market that i believe we are in the early innings of. the market climbls the wall of worry with plenty of skeptics every step of the way. there really hasn't been an expert in markets that has been close to predicting it either. but this great bull market in gold makes 5 steps forward and 4 steps backwards every single time it moves. all that really means is that there is always going to be some type of major support for the stuff no matter how fast a central banker can get the price of gold pushed back. by nature gold operates in cyclical patterns for the last 5000 years. there have been a few times where gold price has been in a bull market for longer than 10 years. the bull market that we are in now is probably going to be at least a 30 year run from what i see. not many things go up for 30 straight years, but the us treasury markets have been up since 1983 now, so i would say that is close. if indeed my assesment on gold is correct, then 30 years would be a piece of cake.

All THE gold in ENTIRE world won't make you feel any better if you're NO LONGER w/a woman who CAN afford a $300 hair-cut :lol: :D

lamboguy
07-17-2011, 08:56 PM
i have a good one now

Saratoga_Mike
07-17-2011, 09:02 PM
supply n demand has gold @ 5X the cost of the means of production

time 2 sell

What's the "right" ratio in your opinion?

lamboguy
07-17-2011, 09:13 PM
the bigger mines have higher cost to produce their gold. GOLD FIELDS is close to $1000 an ounce to get the stuff up out of the ground, while gold corp is a low cost producer and they are under $300. the average cost to dig up gold these days is about $700 an ounce and going up. the governments that allow these goldminers to work in their countries all want more of a cut now that the price has gone up. and they will continue to want more.

i like these mining stocks right now in this order. IAG, AEM, KGC, AUY all midteir producers. and i do like GFI and HMY because they have alot of gold reserves and well managed company's.

Robert Fischer
07-17-2011, 09:54 PM
What's the "right" ratio in your opinion?
i'm ignorant of higher economics

Saratoga_Mike
07-17-2011, 09:56 PM
i'm ignorant of higher economics

I doubt that, but the cost of production is a minor consideration if a commodity is truly scarce.

Robert Fischer
07-17-2011, 11:04 PM
I doubt that, but the cost of production is a minor consideration if a commodity is truly scarce.

it's true. it's a puzzle to me. very ignorant, but where's the bliss...

looking at gold alone... based on purported production:p it almost looks like the concept of "overproduction" is being bet-against with GOLD, given it's status as a reserve and standard.

but say i do a comparison with gold and oil... 10 years ago what is a barrel of OIL ?? $20?, and what was an ounce of GOLD? $300?? and a barrel was what roughly worth 1/15 of an ounce of gold? and today if a barrel of OIL was $110 and roughly 1/15 of an ounce of gold it would seem to indicate inflation.

lamboguy
07-18-2011, 06:32 AM
i just saw in the overnight electronic session that gold finally hit my original target of $1600 after prediction this round number about 4 years ago. i have already revised my target to $1740. but what i am seeing now in gold is a very possible backwardation in the futures contracts. what that means is that the front month is selling for more than the back month. this just recently happened in the silver market in january of this year when its price was $26 per ounce and it ran up all the way to $49 in a parabolic fashion and retreated all the way back to just under $33. there are lots of times when backwardation does occur due to supply but price usually cures that. in the last backwardation in silver it took over 4 months to get the price to correspond to the demand. usually it only takes a few days to a week tops. a 4 month backwardation in gold could bring it way over $2000 per ounce depending upon how many short positions remain open on the comex and other exchanges worldwide. i reported that the pan-asia exchange is due to open the end of this month. i really for see lots of big swings and plenty of volitility in these markets going forward. if you are a trader, volitility is your friend, even if you don' t like this particular market. your basic plan is to capture monetary gains from upside and downside moves. up until now the gold has been trading fairly normal. when silver had reached $49 this time around the margin requirements were boosted up 4 straight days in a row until they got the silver price to where they wanted it to be. the margin requirements have remained the same and the silver is now over $40 per ounce. i suspect the same thing will happen with gold at some point if it reaches over $2000 an ounce. it could go as high as $2700 and take a huge haircut like 33% of its value on a straight line move to the downside, just like what happened with silver. persoanlly, i cannot see any government in this world allowing gold to surpass $2700 on this upward cycle. that is not saying that it won't eventually happen at some point of time, i just think it won't for at least 2 years.i would probably exit the precious metals markets sometime around the first quarter of 2012, and wait for a substantial pullback to re-enter those markets.

lamboguy
07-18-2011, 08:09 AM
newcorp is selling for under $15 a share now, they are currently doing a which hunt for rupert murdoch to get rid of him. he is probably going to have to sell out and his company is easily worth double the $15 a share. i think $14 would be a great entry point to hop on.

RaceBookJoe
07-18-2011, 12:44 PM
newcorp is selling for under $15 a share now, they are currently doing a which hunt for rupert murdoch to get rid of him. he is probably going to have to sell out and his company is easily worth double the $15 a share. i think $14 would be a great entry point to hop on.

If you like it lower, you can always sell puts on it ( not sure if its optionable ), and bring in extra income. rbj

Robert Fischer
07-18-2011, 07:32 PM
i just saw in the overnight electronic session that gold finally hit my original target of $1600 after prediction this round number about 4 years ago. i have already revised my target to $1740. but what i am seeing now in gold is a very possible backwardation in the futures contracts. what that means is that the front month is selling for more than the back month. this just recently happened in the silver market in january of this year when its price was $26 per ounce and it ran up all the way to $49 in a parabolic fashion and retreated all the way back to just under $33. there are lots of times when backwardation does occur due to supply but price usually cures that. in the last backwardation in silver it took over 4 months to get the price to correspond to the demand. usually it only takes a few days to a week tops. a 4 month backwardation in gold could bring it way over $2000 per ounce depending upon how many short positions remain open on the comex and other exchanges worldwide. i reported that the pan-asia exchange is due to open the end of this month. i really for see lots of big swings and plenty of volitility in these markets going forward. if you are a trader, volitility is your friend, even if you don' t like this particular market. your basic plan is to capture monetary gains from upside and downside moves. up until now the gold has been trading fairly normal. when silver had reached $49 this time around the margin requirements were boosted up 4 straight days in a row until they got the silver price to where they wanted it to be. the margin requirements have remained the same and the silver is now over $40 per ounce. i suspect the same thing will happen with gold at some point if it reaches over $2000 an ounce. it could go as high as $2700 and take a huge haircut like 33% of its value on a straight line move to the downside, just like what happened with silver. persoanlly, i cannot see any government in this world allowing gold to surpass $2700 on this upward cycle. that is not saying that it won't eventually happen at some point of time, i just think it won't for at least 2 years.i would probably exit the precious metals markets sometime around the first quarter of 2012, and wait for a substantial pullback to re-enter those markets.

looks like you have a good gameplan
recognizing cycles and volatility and capitalizing on the MOVES

kind of explained the game to me a lot more, you can see how i'm thinking in terms of a set price at a set time instead of the cycles like u r doing Lambo :ThmbUp:

Tape Reader
07-18-2011, 08:10 PM
Congratulations lamboguy on $1600 gold!

Luv your analysis.

Tape Reader

Saratoga_Mike
07-18-2011, 08:17 PM
Congratulations lamboguy on $1600 gold!

Luv your analysis.

Tape Reader

agreed - great job sticking with gold after the big run Lambo.

lamboguy
07-18-2011, 08:20 PM
Congratulations lamboguy on $1600 gold!

Luv your analysis.

Tape Readeryou know something, i realy needed that after my war today about a horse on another thread. thank you very much.

the only problem is that this gold market is going to become very tricky now, because there will be more new people to enter in this market. no question in my mind right now that it goes alot higher, but how it gets there is another story.

i am pretty sure that if one is not in gold at all now and wants to enter the market i think the gold mining stocks are the way to go.

Valuist
07-18-2011, 09:36 PM
Lambo-

Do you prefer the miners over the GLD?

lamboguy
07-18-2011, 09:48 PM
Lambo-

Do you prefer the miners over the GLD?the GLD represents 1/10th the price of gold. gld is selling today for 156.22 while gold is 1605. the difference is a management fee.

goldminers are options on the price of gold without a time factor. the miners have underperformed for the last 4 years. there is alot of cause built in them now to really takeoff bigger percentage than gold could possibly move.

i love IAG and KGC right now. if you bought these things, i would go into the dreaded buy and hold strategy.

my aim is going to make this the top thread on this board along with the help of others here. i learned my lesson today on another thread here because i had a different opinion than most on this board. in this thread a different opinion might make you some money, on the other thread it just gives you a headache.

lamboguy
07-18-2011, 10:09 PM
there is another company that i own and follow. RGLD, royal gold. it is a royalty company that is basically tied to the price of gold. this company finances gold miners. it is a very expensive stock, but there is very little risk and will eventurally pay huge didvidends, maybe as high as 20%. i think i have owned this thing since it was $8 per share, it closed today at $66.

every miner has a business plan that eventually the share price will be worthless, but you will be paid huge dividends. when the mines run out of gold, the company has no reason to be in business. the same thing has happened numerous times in the past. the best example i can give you was HOMESTAKE mining, back in 1980. the stock started less than $1.00 and went to over $200 at the high point but paid out thousand s of dollars in dividends within 6 years. the same thing is going to happen on this run. but there is a difference. today most of the goldminers are UNHEDGED. those miners are all in index called the HUI. there is another difference between this gold bull and the one in 1980. the one 30 years ago went parabolic early and crashed, this one will get to a level eventually and stay there for decades. that will mean that they will get all the gold out of those mines for years to come and you will have major gains on your investment in them. since i have been doing this for more than ten years now, i know most of the ceo's of these miners. alot of them i know from a different company that got bought out and they started new company's. for instance i met and spoke with the legendary rob mcquen when he was the boss of goldcorp, they took over a company called glamis gold, and he was no longer ceo, he then started 2 other company's called us gold, UXG and manera andes. he has a hedge fund background and knows a thing or 2 aobut shareholder value. he has a projection for gold to hit $5000 an ounce within 3 years. i don't see that number yet. he probably knows alot more than i do because he knows who is buying the stuff now.

lamboguy
07-19-2011, 04:46 AM
i have been paying close attention to the grand daddy of them all lately, and that is the us treasury market. during the last month the yield on the 10 has come from 3.35% down to 2.78%. that is one huge move in that market in such a short time span. the bond has been in a 27 year bull in my estimatimation, which is as long a run as anyone could have dreamt of. when the bond first started to get out of its downtrend which had preceded this major uptrend, it took the bond roughly 3 years of a bottoming of process. if you take the chart today and invert it, it looks the same as it did in 1983 but instead of being in a bottoming process it is now in a topping off process which if i am right could take up to 3 years to be topped off. my guesss is that we are already past the first year in this topping off deal with maybe 2 years to go.

Valuist
07-19-2011, 01:56 PM
I see Goldman missed their numbers. Stock is around 125, a 52 week low. At some point it is a buy. Since so much of their earnings comes from trading, they could turn things around much quicker than a commercial bank like Bank of America, who still has billions in bad loans still on the books.

lamboguy
07-19-2011, 02:41 PM
I see Goldman missed their numbers. Stock is around 125, a 52 week low. At some point it is a buy. Since so much of their earnings comes from trading, they could turn things around much quicker than a commercial bank like Bank of America, who still has billions in bad loans still on the books.i see what you are looking at with GS, and on the surface it looks good, but i have always had my own numbers on goldman and they are way below this level, so i would not reccomend them at this point. i would start looking at it around $80 and then $64. that is really where i am with that stock, because the fundementals do look extremely enticing, but i am very scared of it because of those lower numbers that i have on it.

lamboguy
07-19-2011, 03:34 PM
after going up for almost 2 straight weeks, gold has taken a pretty decent hit after the comex close today.

my target remains the same for gold $1740

Saratoga_Mike
07-19-2011, 04:28 PM
i see what you are looking at with GS, and on the surface it looks good, but i have always had my own numbers on goldman and they are way below this level, so i would not reccomend them at this point. i would start looking at it around $80 and then $64. that is really where i am with that stock, because the fundementals do look extremely enticing, but i am very scared of it because of those lower numbers that i have on it.

What are your modeling assumptions on GS by division? Thanks.

highnote
07-19-2011, 04:34 PM
There is still a chance we could experience a period of deflation.

What happens to the price of gold then?

lamboguy
07-19-2011, 04:46 PM
There is still a chance we could experience a period of deflation.

What happens to the price of gold then?
probably it will go up more, it did in the great depression

i see the fundemental reason gold getting killed in after the comex was the budget deal today. they waited until the close to announce the deal, yet ahead of the announcement gold and silver was already getting hit. file that one as someone always knows something more than myself!

highnote
07-19-2011, 04:52 PM
probably it will go up more, it did in the great depression

i see the fundemental reason gold getting killed in after the comex was the budget deal today. they waited until the close to announce the deal, yet ahead of the announcement gold and silver was already getting hit. file that one as someone always knows something more than myself!


So it sounds like the price of gold moves independently of inflation or deflation.

RaceBookJoe
07-19-2011, 05:02 PM
Silver took a huge dump from Obama's speech for about 2 hours, mild recovery near the end of the day. What I am wondering overall is how much money is on the side waiting, and how much are the debt issues factored in already. Really nice profits today. rbj

lamboguy
07-19-2011, 05:19 PM
Silver took a huge dump from Obama's speech for about 2 hours, mild recovery near the end of the day. What I am wondering overall is how much money is on the side waiting, and how much are the debt issues factored in already. Really nice profits today. rbjthe thing about gold and silver is that when you go to a store to buy something they ask you for money. when you pay your mortgage and taxes they ask for money. when you own gold you are banking on people, bankers and other countries that have a high value for the stuff.

india, and china love gold more than mr. goldfinger.

the government of the united states is afraid of the rise in price of gold, that is their number one concern now because if it goes up in price the public will know how much lying the government has done to their citizens. after watching these leaders and congressional delegations, they all scare me.

RaceBookJoe
07-19-2011, 06:05 PM
the thing about gold and silver is that when you go to a store to buy something they ask you for money. when you pay your mortgage and taxes they ask for money. when you own gold you are banking on people, bankers and other countries that have a high value for the stuff.

india, and china love gold more than mr. goldfinger.

the government of the united states is afraid of the rise in price of gold, that is their number one concern now because if it goes up in price the public will know how much lying the government has done to their citizens. after watching these leaders and congressional delegations, they all scare me.

Its going to be interesting to see where gold goes if/when the dollar really starts to tank. I'm honestly not comfortable holding any stocks long ( most of my action is intraday at the moment), and i try to be objective by playing the hand i'm dealt, but i still see a bigger and more dangerous hand getting ready to trump many. Do you see any issues with gold falling if China has a big problem economically? rbj

lamboguy
07-19-2011, 06:18 PM
Its going to be interesting to see where gold goes if/when the dollar really starts to tank. I'm honestly not comfortable holding any stocks long ( most of my action is intraday at the moment), and i try to be objective by playing the hand i'm dealt, but i still see a bigger and more dangerous hand getting ready to trump many. Do you see any issues with gold falling if China has a big problem economically? rbj
china could certainly create a major problem with gold. the united states not. there is no way in hell that the united states ever defaults on their debts, all they have to do is turn on those printing press's they have in the backroom and run them at night, every night if they have to.

this deal with the sherade that has gone on between the congress and the president was nothing but a show. the tea party might mean well, but they ultimately are a show too.

when you look at things from a neutral perspective you will see that the lawmakers are all no good. i mean the democrats say they want to raise the taxes, they don't raise them on the corporations, they raise them on the middle class. the republicans claim they want to lower the taxes, they lower them for the bankers and corporations. in essence the liberals and the conservetives are spitting images of each other.

and that is why gold is going to $1740 on this move

lamboguy
07-20-2011, 04:43 PM
gold had a nothing day today, it went down after hours yesterday and got it back today during regular trading. i would not pay to much attention right now to the after hours trading until the pan-asia exchange opens at the end of the month.

what really does look good are these gold miner stocks that i have been watching, IAG, KGC, AUY and a few others. i think they alll move way up even if gold should drop or remain the same as it is now.

i will try to revisit the long bond next week to try to figure out where it is.

ArlJim78
07-20-2011, 04:50 PM
I think everything will stay more or less in a holding pattern right now, until this debt ceiling issue is put to bed.

lamboguy
07-20-2011, 04:57 PM
I think everything will stay more or less in a holding pattern right now, until this debt ceiling issue is put to bed.i have to agree with that in the united states markets. summer trading is usually light and pretty much back and forth.

Jay Trotter
07-20-2011, 05:53 PM
Slightly off topic but how often does a father get the chance to brag...

...a couple days ago my son was approached by Goldman Sachs to trade for them in New York City! Not bad for a bumpkin!

lamboguy
07-20-2011, 06:04 PM
Slightly off topic but how often does a father get the chance to brag...

...a couple days ago my son was approached by Goldman Sachs to trade for them in New York City! Not bad for a bumpkin!
they are the Hertz of the trading industry, big time congradulations on that one jay.

on another note the university of texas put $1billion into gold bullion in 2009. the value of the gold has almost doubled and they have not sold an ounce of the stuff and they claim they see no reason in the near future to sell any either.

i am sure that the guy making the decisions for the university of texas is alot smarter than i am, so if one doesn't want to listen to me about gold, please listen to that guy he is already a proven commodity.

Tape Reader
07-20-2011, 06:30 PM
Slightly off topic but how often does a father get the chance to brag...

...a couple days ago my son was approached by Goldman Sachs to trade for them in New York City! Not bad for a bumpkin!

Brag!

Tell your son to let it go to his head.

Congratulations!

lamboguy
07-20-2011, 06:34 PM
i have one more thing to add, the company NORTHGATE MINERALS, NXG, has just hired a very prolific man in the goldming industry, JOE CONWAY.he is a pro at developing mining company's, he did it prior for IAG whom i already love.

so if you are looking for a lottery ticket, this might be the one. closing price today is $3.38 per share.

RaceBookJoe
07-20-2011, 06:58 PM
i have one more thing to add, the company NORTHGATE MINERALS, NXG, has just hired a very prolific man in the goldming industry, JOE CONWAY.he is a pro at developing mining company's, he did it prior for IAG whom i already love.

so if you are looking for a lottery ticket, this might be the one. closing price today is $3.38 per share.

Nice little upswing recently, also like that they have twice the amount of cash than debt. thanks for the heads up. rbj

lamboguy
07-20-2011, 07:04 PM
Brag!

Tell your son to let it go to his head.

Congratulations!i am honored that he actually posted about his son on this thread. you have no idea how happy i am for his son and his post here today.

lamboguy
07-21-2011, 06:55 AM
What's the "right" ratio in your opinion?today the ratio is just under 40-1. historically speaking it has been as high as 65-1 and as low as 20-1.

when it was 20-1 the price of gold was $20.00 and price of silver $1.00. back in those days the money in the united states was either backed by gold and silver notes or the coins used to buy things were real gold and silver. a $20 gold piece was always an ounce of gold, and silver dollar was always an ounce of silver. after those days gold went to $35 an ounce and the silver dollar remained the same for the longest period of time.

today you have world markets trading these things second by second and really has no correlation to a silver dollar or $50 gold coin as far as price goes.

so far in the last 3 weeks silver has outpaced gold. my target for the ratio is 30-1, simply because that was the last low. moving forward i would expect that gap to even get narrower.

for the meantime, if anyone believes this precious metals story, and is not a holder of physical gold, i would not buy it here even though i think its going way higher. i think that the mining stocks presensts more of an upside potential today than gold or silver vs. united states currency. later on down the road you can take your profits in the mining stocks and buy precious metats with it no matter what the price has risen to. i am thinking that way because it looks like hedge funds have been short gold miners and long gold for the last 2 years and they are going to have to unwind their positions at some point of time. the gold mining sector is so small that if you total up all the company's market caps, microsoft is still bigger. that is why i think there is some high growth potential in these things that have been slaughtered in the last 3 years. and they seem to be bottoming out to me.

lamboguy
07-21-2011, 08:52 AM
There is still a chance we could experience a period of deflation.

What happens to the price of gold then?
i actually have given some thought to what you said. i have come up this right now, we live in the united states when you look at prices based in dollar's there is heavy duty inflation going on with prices going up on almost everything. however when you compare prices to gold you actually have deflation now. a good comparison might be the dow vs. gold 12 years ago when the dow was at 12k then, it took 40 ounces of gold to buy the dow back then, now the dow is the same price and it only takes 8 ounces to buy it now. that i have to admit is deflation in spades.

so the moral of this story john is that the question you asked was an excellent one and i gave you a very fast answer without giving it much though. but after careful review i really see where you are coming from and have to give you alot of respect for that question.

PaceAdvantage
07-21-2011, 11:15 AM
Slightly off topic but how often does a father get the chance to brag...

...a couple days ago my son was approached by Goldman Sachs to trade for them in New York City! Not bad for a bumpkin!Congrats to your son and to you too, proud papa Jay!!

teddy
07-21-2011, 11:27 AM
Is it too late to invest in gold...i think there will be a huge decline in stocks soon. I am seeing some bad signs at the hospital and jobs in general. If youwanted to put in20 k is there a fund that has gold in it or as you say mining companies. I dont want to buy gold coins because im sure selling them would cost me dearly when that time comes. Not sure what the cost is to convert themto cash.

lamboguy
07-21-2011, 11:58 AM
Is it too late to invest in gold...i think there will be a huge decline in stocks soon. I am seeing some bad signs at the hospital and jobs in general. If youwanted to put in20 k is there a fund that has gold in it or as you say mining companies. I dont want to buy gold coins because im sure selling them would cost me dearly when that time comes. Not sure what the cost is to convert themto cash.
i recently bought 1/10th of an ounce of united states fold eagles. i paid 9% over spot from a coin dealer in florida. to sell them back to this dealer he will pay me 7% over spot.

as far as physical gold, to me personally it is not even close to being an investment, its an insurance policy. when i buy things today i look at it in terms of how much gold it cost not money.

just yesterday our federal reserve chairman whom i did happen to have a high degree of respect for just said a flat out lie, he claimed that gold is not money. in the united states constitution it is. what in gods name makes him more powerful than the constitution and the laws that we all have to live by in this country?

Mike at A+
07-21-2011, 01:51 PM
Is it too late to invest in gold...i think there will be a huge decline in stocks soon. I am seeing some bad signs at the hospital and jobs in general. If youwanted to put in20 k is there a fund that has gold in it or as you say mining companies. I dont want to buy gold coins because im sure selling them would cost me dearly when that time comes. Not sure what the cost is to convert themto cash.
I've been in the Oppenheimer Gold Fund (Symbol OPGSX) for over 20 years and it has treated me very well.

lamboguy
07-21-2011, 07:48 PM
not much racing today and i was out all day.

what i have noticed is mr. softie, microsoft, is showing some signs of strength after a pretty rough century. it looks good on a technical basis.

the gold market turned back today before 1:30, but nothing really special. the gold miners had minor pullbacks as well that didn't amount to anything.the dollar index got killed is at 74. the thing about the dollar index is that it will not go above 76.50. one day it will break 73 and have a bigger fall.

lamboguy
07-22-2011, 06:50 PM
most market technicians look at daily, weekly, monthly and sometimes quarterly closes. today gold closed above $1600 on a weekly basis. for right now i have a short term target of $1740 per ounce. but gold is like a gift that keeps on giving. at some point i am really expecting a parabolic run up and a big crash in it to follow. there could be a trend-reversal in it right in this area, but i don't think its happening. in the long run i expect major things out of gold from both sides. gold is and will alway's be the number 1 enemy of any central bank and government int he world that works over time to fool you. that is the nature of this market. when gold goes down you will have every doubter in this world telling you how bad it is and that if you like gold you are negetive on this country. there couldn't be anything further from the truth in my mind.

i am going to call the bottom in on goldminers now and you could easily get some 10 or 20-1's on this sector.

lamboguy
07-23-2011, 09:41 AM
on this gold and silver, we are now in a very dynamic area where you have the bulls and bears fighting this price viciously. you have bullion banks trying to drive the price down below $1600 and trying like hell to get it to the $1580. along with the bullion banks you the guys that tag along to the bullion banks and try to be on the right side of the trade. on the other side of the scale you have hedge funds, people from india and china (not governments) buying the gold here. along with those people you now also have the people that are in europe who have never trusted their governments. i don't think those guys don't like the way the greek debt and other soverign debt has played out. the reason why i know about the folks from europe is because the premiums to buy precious metals in this country is actually down this week, meaning there is plenty of supply of silver and gold to buy here. so when i look at actual price it leaves me with the conclusion that the people in europe are attacking these markets now.

the key number to look at this upcoming week will be $1610. the guys that are piggybacking the bullion banks and swaps dealers are very weak hands and will cover at that point. the cover could easily get you a gold price of $1650 PRONTO.

lamboguy
07-24-2011, 06:51 PM
i know gold is way up this evening, something like $25 and over the number of the $1610. for all those that have been with me the last 10 years of this run, you know that i don't get excited one way or the other on moves in asian markets on sunday evening. i am not sure if the pan-asia exchange is open yet. but in any case for this move to be real you will need some heavy duty follow through on the comex monday morning. we may have finally got to the point that cheap gold will no longer exist.

lamboguy
07-25-2011, 09:23 AM
it looks like they have shaved $8.00 off the electronic high in gold last night.for those that have questions on what does a raise the debt ceiling or not to raise have to do with the price of gold? i would say absolutely nothing. the reason for that is that the guys that move the price of gold already know which way they are going to go and the price of gold already reflects it. the worst thing you can ever do in trading is trade based on the news, that is a recipe to bust you. gold is still in an accumulation phase, the next phase will be the mark up phase. i don;t have a crystal ball to say what the eventual high will be in gold, what i do know is it will go up and down for a very long time to come in this SECUALR bull market.

NXG looks great going forward. i also like another one GCU.V

lamboguy
07-25-2011, 06:32 PM
tuesday morning on sqwak box CNBC Rob Mckewen will be a co-host on their show. the man is a legend he developed the gold corp properties and merged with glamis gold. he now runs us gold and another menero andes. the man knows 100 times more than myself on gold.

as soon as obama opened his mouth today about progress happening with the debt ceiling, the gold fell $10 and was only up $13 from friday.that is nothing but a smokescreen. obama has no chance of bringing down the price of gold no matter how much his advisors tell him he needs to do it to get re-elected. when he leaves office, the only report card that will matter will be how much the price of gold has gone up during his one term.

NXG didn't go up today, but had good action

lamboguy
07-26-2011, 09:11 AM
mr. softie (microsoft) does look strong and is sitting right now just under $28. i happened to have caught jim cramer last night, and he suggested that msft might purchase a big name like twitter and that would get some juice underneath this stock and get it to $31.00. the most important part of investing is always knowing the other side of the coin. if one would buy msft here, they could stop themselves out at $27.25 and target $31 for better than a 3-1 return if i am wright. i am really not seeing to many stocks outside of the gold mining sector that has great worthwhile risk rewards up or down these days.

another company that i like is DHX, it is a company that is in cloud computing. they did a secondary and have held price for now. there isn't much juice in it right now though. but i have seen this plenty of times before like when i bought 300 shares of EMC back in 1985 and sold it at $19 before it went to the sky. if i had held the 300 shares i would have made over $1 million. same thing has happened with netflix and other company's.

lamboguy
07-26-2011, 06:29 PM
DHX showed a nice sign of strength today moving up over 5% today on bigtime volume. MSFT had volume today but no real price movement, but still strong. gold stocks are all very strong, you can almost throw a dart on any of them and make money. the gold contract got up as high as $1620 and closed the comex @ $1670. the dollar index was the story today with downside pressure. bonds look like are in hunger right now, i suspect the trade is going to be sell the bond and buy the gold from here.

the major difference in this gold run today from 1980 is that in 1980 it was just united states money in that market, today its the whole world. they will line up people from here to shanghai to try to scare you out of gold. stay with the program, gold is your only insurance going forward.

lamboguy
07-27-2011, 09:06 AM
IAMGOLD(IAG) is poinsed for a huge run, a break above $23 will get you to $30. this is a very well run company sitting with over $1billion in cash and plenty of gold reserves. i also love NORTHGATE MINERALS(NXG), both stocks have been in lengthy consolidations and when that happens, you usually get huge runnups.

if anyone is playing rare earth minerals, i am sticking with MOLLYCORP (MCP). they had a secondary about 6 months ago. the stock exploded to $79 after the secondard and then pulled back for a retest of the $50 area and that train has left the station again. any break over $80 will get you $110.

PaceAdvantage
07-27-2011, 10:44 AM
Isn't there an SEC law against pumping stocks publicly like this?

lamboguy
07-27-2011, 10:54 AM
Isn't there an SEC law against pumping stocks publicly like this?
there might be a pace advantage law, but not an sec law

PaceAdvantage
07-27-2011, 10:59 AM
I could have sworn there was something on the books....no PA law unless there is an SEC law....do you disclose that you own any of the stocks you are pumping?

lamboguy
07-27-2011, 11:01 AM
every single one of them i own, different amounts of

lamboguy
07-28-2011, 09:05 AM
all stocks i listed above went down yesterday. i am stopping myself out of msft below 26,75. i am using a very wide stop on MCP to $50. the goldminers i am stopping out 15% below these levels.

as far as physical gold goes, i have no stop at all on it, i am keeping it no matter what because it is not a trade to me, its insurance. i have been buying this insurance plan now for over a decade, so i know how tough it would be to start now. there are 2 different things that can bring the price of gold down in the short run. one way is for exchanges to raise margin requirements. that ussally happens if a commodity goes parabolic like silver did in april. silver went from under $20 per ounce to $49 and then the comex increased margin requirements 5 times in 10 days and the silver reacted and fell to $33, it has since rebounded to $41, half the pullback from the top.

the other way to get the gold price down is not an artificial one like margin requirements, its central banks selling their gold. recently their have been planned sales of gold by smaller countries and they have asked the international monetary fund for permission to cut back their sales. but those are very small countries with very small amounts of gold that they own. if a country like russia would sell any gold at all the gold market would get croaked. its highly unlikely, but anything is possible.

for disclose, i own the above stocks and i own gold and silver.

lamboguy
07-30-2011, 07:19 AM
another wild week with everything. the summer time can often see whipsaw action in all the markets. the treasury market is speaking like this debt crisis is already solved. it went up almost 3 full points on friday alone. the 10 year yields fell to the 2.8's. the swiss franc got stronger and the dollar index is in a trading range between 73 and 77. gold made it up $25 for the week while silver was basically flat.

the goldming stocks went slightly down even with gold moving up, that suggests that hedge funds are selling and shorting gold miners and buying the actual meta's half of the gains in gold was on friday with very low contract volume, there was a drop in open interest too. so what i am trying to say is for the short term i would guess that gold is going to head down a bit. i would say that $1550 is wide open for a small correction.

msft finished the week the way it started this week. dhx took back the one day gains it made on tuesday, while MCP was up to 65 and pulled back.

for disclosure purposes, i own all these stocks and the gold and silver, no position on the swiss franc or the us dollar or any other currency trade. and i don't have a position in any treasury bond except for a few us savings bonds that i have owned my whole life.

lamboguy
08-02-2011, 08:56 AM
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hYx6G6gFpmDpu5bxOz2KW8I5IRog?docId=CNG.f34dc e87aeb4423295dfefc4df61a363.fe1

as far as i can see these buys did not go through the international monetary fund, which leads me to believe that they don't want to sell anyone any gold these days. it might mean that gold will be in very short supply real soon.

for disclosure purposes i own gold now

Saratoga_Mike
08-02-2011, 04:43 PM
Without a rate CUT in the very short term, I believe the EU (not just the PIIGS) will enter a sharp downturn in the next few qtrs. If you look at Euribor (think LIBOR but just for European banks) and Euro-based swap spreads, you'll see very real stresses in the European financial system. Apparently ECB head JCT has his head in the sand.

Europe is in for a world of hurt - European credit mkt indicators are flashing red, in my opinion. Italian spreads blowing out.

While Rome burns, the ECB fiddles.

Saratoga_Mike
08-02-2011, 04:48 PM
My gut is saying this run up in the market these past few days seems contrived. They are all banking on the Greek vote going a certain way.

Something tells me all is not what it seems. I smell a monkey wrench that could bring the indexes crashing back down to Earth.

But then again, I'm a trader and I don't predict when it comes time to lay my money on the line...I only react.

Is this another classic "Buy the rumor, sell the news" type of setup? And if the news isn't good, you'd better really look out below...

Good call here --June 29--S&P was around 1,310...closed today at 1,254

lamboguy
08-02-2011, 04:49 PM
Europe is in for a world of hurt - European credit mkt indicators are flashing red, in my opinion. Italian spreads blowing out.

While Rome burns, the ECB fiddles.can't argue with that!

gold went up $40 today and the dollar index went up as well. that says it all today, europe in some big trouble now. trouble often spreads to other continents.

gold did hit the imediate objective today making it past the $1650.

for disclosure purposes i am long gold

Saratoga_Mike
08-02-2011, 04:55 PM
can't argue with that!

gold went up $40 today and the dollar index went up as well. that says it all today, europe in some big trouble now. trouble often spreads to other continents.

gold did hit the imediate objective today making it past the $1650.

for disclosure purposes i am long gold

It's interesting. If I could rule out QE3 for the balance of this yr, I'd predict the dollar would appreciate by 10% to 15% against the Euro. Hell, it still may happen even with more QE.

So if you knew with certainty the Euro was going to 1.25, would you stay long gold? I can make both cases. I think I know the one you'll make. :)

lamboguy
08-02-2011, 05:17 PM
It's interesting. If I could rule out QE3 for the balance of this yr, I'd predict the dollar would appreciate by 10% to 15% against the Euro. Hell, it still may happen even with more QE.

So if you knew with certainty the Euro was going to 1.25, would you stay long gold? I can make both cases. I think I know the one you'll make. :)my opinion on gold is that it will get smacked down with a few more days like today. my target is $1740 for the time being, when i mean a smack down, i mean a worthwhile smackdown of more than $200, probably $300. it could get hit all the way down to $1460 and that would be the sweetest of all buys at that point. gold eventually is going to crazy numbers that i could never have dreamt of. i am looking at these republican's running for president in 2012. one of those guys figures to get elected after this trainwreck. the problem i am having is none of these guys is any better than the guy we have now.the history of gold is that it always speaks very loud and even clearer. i think this gold move has more to do with the weak republican field that is going to run for president in 2012 than anything else.

Valuist
08-02-2011, 05:21 PM
The strongest technical over the past 10 years or so has been the S&P 500 200 day moving average. It broke thru strong support levels today. Not good at all for the market.

lamboguy
08-02-2011, 05:41 PM
The strongest technical over the past 10 years or so has been the S&P 500 200 day moving average. It broke thru strong support levels today. Not good at all for the market.the thing about the s+p runnup in the last 2 years is that there was never real demand behind the move. look at the volumes on the way up. that would mean that downtown action is going to be fast and furious. s_p 825 is extremely possible.

lamboguy
08-02-2011, 09:25 PM
The strongest technical over the past 10 years or so has been the S&P 500 200 day moving average. It broke thru strong support levels today. Not good at all for the market.as bad as the s+p looks today, and boy it does look awful, the gold mining stocks don't look to bad. you might have expected more pop today with gold up so much and you just didn't get it. the old line always goes when they raid the whore house they always take the good girls along with the bad ones. this didn't happen today with the miners. i went back all the way to 1930 when there was a big gold run, and that run had the gold moving before the stocks. when the stocks did make their run it was an enormous run. i guess i can still hope!

Valuist
08-02-2011, 09:35 PM
Contrasting TA points. Yes, the 200 day moving average of the S & P was violated, but the non-moving avg S & P 500 still hasn't fallen below the support of around 1250. Its teetering and very close, but hasn't broken.

Lambo-

What do you think of DE and TIF? TIF was down 8% today but their customer base isn't sensitive to the economy. Their sales continue to be strong. Deere is still an ag leader. Down 20% the last 3 months....

lamboguy
08-02-2011, 09:44 PM
Contrasting TA points. Yes, the 200 day moving average of the S & P was violated, but the non-moving avg S & P 500 still hasn't fallen below the support of around 1250. Its teetering and very close, but hasn't broken.

Lambo-

What do you think of DE and TIF? TIF was down 8% today but their customer base isn't sensitive to the economy. Their sales continue to be strong. Deere is still an ag leader. Down 20% the last 3 months....i know they look bad on charts, both of them. but that is how you make money. on a fundemental basis, tiffany is selling lots of diamond jewelry in the far east, and john deere is not only big agricultuaraly, but they supply the equipment along with cat for miners, so you know i got to like that one. i know you asked me about gs and it went up after you asked, but i still hate it along with bac, bank of america looks like its going straight to 8

plainolebill
08-03-2011, 02:53 AM
I'm extrememly bearish right now, our economy is terrible and is probably going to get worse before it gets better - if Italian and Spanish bonds get hammered the ECB won't be able to do anything to help them - at that point the banks go down and will probably take ours down with them. 2008 all over again without the party favors and noisemakers.

Maybe the dollar rises but you might have trouble getting it out of the bank. :rolleyes:

lamboguy
08-03-2011, 06:11 AM
I'm extrememly bearish right now, our economy is terrible and is probably going to get worse before it gets better - if Italian and Spanish bonds get hammered the ECB won't be able to do anything to help them - at that point the banks go down and will probably take ours down with them. 2008 all over again without the party favors and noisemakers.

Maybe the dollar rises but you might have trouble getting it out of the bank. :rolleyes:
the dollar is really falling like a rock right now, the perception is that it is holding up though because they are measuring the dollar in terms of dollar index. the dollar index is comprised of very weak currnecies, the euro, and the yen. so the dolllar shines compared to those. but the dollar is breaking down to the swiss franc which means alot more than the euro and will mean more than the euro going forward.

on another note, what i have tried to do with this thread is simply make some people aware as to what is going on around them. i am not a spammer, and i do not gain one penny from this thread or any other thread that i post here. i have pounded gold just to make my felllow horseplayers aware that there is another currency in the world that one can protect themselves from the awful leadership of the george bush's and barrack obama's and congress of this country. and not only are these characters awful, the guys in europe are no better. every step of the way there have been people that have doubted my call on gold, those very same people will doubt me going forward too, and when it turns out that my numbers are correct i became a spammer. i can't help that part, this is what makes a market.

Saratoga_Mike
08-03-2011, 09:37 AM
the dollar is really falling like a rock right now, the perception is that it is holding up though because they are measuring the dollar in terms of dollar index. the dollar index is comprised of very weak currnecies, the euro, and the yen. so the dolllar shines compared to those. but the dollar is breaking down to the swiss franc which means alot more than the euro and will mean more than the euro going forward.

on another note, what i have tried to do with this thread is simply make some people aware as to what is going on around them. i am not a spammer, and i do not gain one penny from this thread or any other thread that i post here. i have pounded gold just to make my felllow horseplayers aware that there is another currency in the world that one can protect themselves from the awful leadership of the george bush's and barrack obama's and congress of this country. and not only are these characters awful, the guys in europe are no better. every step of the way there have been people that have doubted my call on gold, those very same people will doubt me going forward too, and when it turns out that my numbers are correct i became a spammer. i can't help that part, this is what makes a market.

SNB intervened -- printing Swiss Franc - finally.

lamboguy
08-03-2011, 09:53 AM
SNB intervened -- printing Swiss Franc - finally.
just happened today. where can people go for a safe currency now?

Saratoga_Mike
08-03-2011, 10:12 AM
just happened today. where can people go for a safe currency now?

Gold is a de facto currency! :)

In all seriousness, I've never understood viewing the Swiss Franc as a great safe haven. The ratio of the the banking system to the Swiss economy makes it a very risky currency!

lamboguy
08-03-2011, 10:23 AM
Gold is a de facto currency! :)

In all seriousness, I've never understood viewing the Swiss Franc as a great safe haven. The ratio of the the banking system to the Swiss economy makes it a very risky currency!
in my mind i always though that gold would always be cyclical and strickly a trading vehicle. today i view it as secular and more of an insurance policy than a trading vehicle.

even the swiss are playing follow the leader now, i suspect south africa will be the next, they are getting real strong now too.

Saratoga_Mike
08-03-2011, 11:46 AM
in my mind i always though that gold would always be cyclical and strickly a trading vehicle. today i view it as secular and more of an insurance policy than a trading vehicle.

even the swiss are playing follow the leader now, i suspect south africa will be the next, they are getting real strong now too.

Well congrats on the gold...another great day.

Saratoga_Mike
08-04-2011, 10:08 AM
Well congrats on the gold...another great day.

Same thing today - new high!

Saratoga_Mike
08-04-2011, 10:59 AM
Europe's on fire...where's the ECB?

Valuist
08-04-2011, 11:25 AM
How about Dendreon (DNDN)? Down around 70% on weak sales for its prostate cancer drug. But maybe a bit overdone? Funny how the analysts NOW downgrade after the butchering. Technically its shot and no hurry to get in, but once it starts to consolidate it might be worth a flyer. That could be several months from now but it does seem like an overreaction.

Valuist
08-04-2011, 12:08 PM
Getting in definite correction mode now. Except for a late reversal yesterday, the Dow would be in its 10th consecutive down day......the worst scenario since 1978 during the good ole Carter years.

lamboguy
08-04-2011, 12:09 PM
How about Dendreon (DNDN)? Down around 70% on weak sales for its prostate cancer drug. But maybe a bit overdone? Funny how the analysts NOW downgrade after the butchering. Technically its shot and no hurry to get in, but once it starts to consolidate it might be worth a flyer. That could be several months from now but it does seem like an overreaction.
the s+p could easily fall to the 825 level now. it might take a year but it can get there. the 825 is the last big volume on the s+p. by my work those numbers work like magnets, with the markets down big gold is down $2.00 for the day. but it is only an insurance policy.my mother always taught me to expect the worst and pray for the best.

lamboguy
08-04-2011, 12:13 PM
Getting in definite correction mode now. Except for a late reversal yesterday, the Dow would be in its 10th consecutive down day......the worst scenario since 1978 during the good ole Carter years.
to tell you the truth, i think this guy is percieved as being worse than carter or bush

Saratoga_Mike
08-04-2011, 12:29 PM
The ECB will cut rates in the next 90 days, imo. They don't even realize it yet. The dollar could continue to rip here. If there were no prospects for QE3, the dollar/euro would already be at 1.30. Europe's in meltdown mode.

So if the dollar rips, that may whack gold. Not sure. I don't play gold, or currencies for that matter.

lamboguy
08-04-2011, 12:36 PM
The ECB will cut rates in the next 90 days, imo. They don't even realize it yet. The dollar could continue to rip here. If there were no prospects for QE3, the dollar/euro would already be at 1.30. Europe's in meltdown mode.

So if the dollar rips, that may whack gold. Not sure. I don't play gold, or currencies for that matter.
you are looking at the DOLLAR INDEX. if the euro gets weaker gold will get a little weaker. right now the gold has some very strong support at the $1460 level, which no question we could get. but to me that is not a real smack down on gold.going forward i highly anticipate a time when gold loses ONE THIRD OF ITS VALUE fast. but at higher levels from where we are now. to get a smack down all you need is a few central banks to get together and put some of their gold on the open market at the same time. that is more powerful than raising margin requirements i promise you that this will happen at some point with the gold, it has to happen

Saratoga_Mike
08-04-2011, 12:55 PM
Bank of NY is charging new large deposits 13 bps (13/100 of a percent), according to CNBC! That's right: you pay them to keep your money!

JBmadera
08-04-2011, 12:56 PM
Bank of NY is charging new large deposits 13 bps (13/100 of a percent), according to CNBC! That's right: you pay them to keep your money!

makes sense, as real interest rates are negative.