Form Chances

[Shacopate]

The Dick Francis book "Twice Shy" has inspired me immeasurably.

Giving horses a rating based on "chances to win."

I've came up with an idea that I call Form Chances.

Here it is:

From William L. Scott, I give a point to a horse for every plus rating from his "Form Defects and Advantages" approach.

Also a point to horse that has "no failures, last three races" as by Quirin.

A point for the Z pattern.
A point for a double diagonal.
A point for improving at every call in last.
A point for improving beaten finish in last three.
A point for a middle move in last.
A point for bid-hung in last.
A point for a taxing stretch drive in last.
A point for a horse that shows the Cardello angle.
A point for a horse coming off a big win (four or more in last).

Non-tested, non-proven, but I look forward to getting my hands dirty.

[JimL]

Form chances,really a good idea. Talk about original thinking!I hope you keep us posted. One question: Al Illich, Danny Holmes, and our own Karlescorner, have described the Z pattern differently. Just exactly what is it? Any one know for sure?

[socantra]

Originally posted by JimL
One question: Al Illich, Danny Holmes, and our own Karlescorner, have described the Z pattern differently. Just exactly what is it? Any one know for sure?

I don't see the difference. Holmes and Karlscorner use beaten lengths and calls, but those are only illustrations. Its basically 2 moves withinn a race, which is what I've seen it named in some books.

Al Illich calls it the irregular race. He describes it as:
The only qualification for an irregular pattern is that the horse dropped back and then gained (or came on) after being back
A paragraph later he says:
This is an irregular race, drop back and gain, no matter where in race, or where finished.
Illich leaves out the first gain, but it is implied, since you have to make some sort of move to be able to drop back

Most folks would tighten that up a bit, to require some sort of show of contention during the race, and even Illich advised the "judicious study" of the conditions and competition of the race before betting. He thought you could probably profit from betting them all, but then, the takeout was a lot smaller in his day.

Holmes used numerous illustrations of his z pattern later in the book, all with different calls, positions and lengths. I can't say for sure on Karlscorner, but I assume his specifics were just examples.

The basic move is come on, drop back, come on again.

socantra....

[socantra]

Originally posted by Shacopate

A point for a horse that shows the Cardello angle.


I either don't know or have forgotten, what's the Cardello angle?

socantra....

[karlskorner]

Al Illich is gone. Danny boy is gone. The Tatante is over and I get to enjoy the bottle of Cognac

[John]

KARL,
I'LL drink to that.

[JimL]

socantra, thanks for the info. Karl, I will also have some of that Tatante oh I meant to say Cognac.

[Shacopate]

Also add:

One point for a horse making its 2nd or 3rd start off a layoff.

One point for a horse that pressed the pace outside/wide from poor post.

[Tom]

You might be interested in Form Points by Tom Hambleton. It rated horses on various form factors.

[Shacopate]

Tom,

Very interested. Is there a book?

[Fastracehorse]

What is this??

< double diagonal.

Gratefully,

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

When I handicap I adjust the horses' speed figures of course. But, more interesting is to discern which animal will be firing today.

I don't have numerical weightings for 'form points' but I put a check mark beside the horse for every form point. In this way, there are more contenders. And, with experience I have learned that horses with check marks but lesser speed figs, can upset more 'tote-happy' horses ( public choices ).

It's kind of amazing how most trainers do the same things to get the most out of the horse.

fffastt

[BIG HIT]

fast
Mean's looking at the horse position in race.In stead of across you look for inproveing position's diagnol.
example if you go 3 race back and thrid race back he was 4th at frist call second race back thrid at sec call and last race he was frist at str call.He would have inproved diagonly

[Fastracehorse]

Thanks again.

fffastt

:cool:

[Tom]

Fast,
That used to be the nuts and bolts of my handicapping-I would isolate contenders, rate them on pace, the go through the whole list of Tom Ainsle's plus factors (plus ones I added from other books).
Then I would look at anything within something like 10 points on pace ratings and and bet across the board the one with the most check marks (oh those 12 horse field days!).
For many years, I did very well with this basic method-the only things that changed were the criteria for picking contenders and the pace ratings - evolved into Quirin speed figs and my own variants around 1977 when the book came out, and then added pace figs when the next book came out.

[Fastracehorse]

I just hit bomb # 129 at Woodbine ( 12-1 ).

fffastt

:cool: :rolleyes: :eek: :) :D :cool:

[socantra]

Originally posted by Shacopate

Very interested. Is there a book?

Form Points is the title of Hambleton's book. Probably available at RPM or Gamblers Book Shop. I think its one of those $49.00 jobs, but it occasionally shows up on eBay.

It started out as a chapter in Pace Makes The Race and evolved into a whole method and book. I understand it became rather time consuming and unwieldy, but have never read the whole thing myself.

socantra.....

[Shacopate]

Are you kidding me?

I feel like a screenwriter on his last page, that gets a phone call and is told "they've already made a movie about a killer great white shark that is eating people in the beach water of a small coastal town."

I can definitely second the time consuming thing.

NEXT!

[Fastracehorse]

Are you guys saying that understanding, employing, or learning form analysis is time consuming??

I don't think it is but it is the foundation of my handicapping - along with speed figures of course.

Just curious.

:confused: :D :cool: :confused: :cool: :D :)

[Shacopate]

ffast,

I'm saying that the way I was trying to do it was extremely time consuming.

Going through a long list, then checking for each factor (just for one horse) became unrealistic for me.

I've scrapped the "Form Chances" and came up with a simple formula to adjust speed figs by hand. You'll like the acronym I came up for it: FAST- form adjusted speed technique.

I have another that allows me to evaluate the early speed/class factors.

These are simple ratings that I can do by hand that allow me to handicap a race in less than 10 minutes.

I have cut-off points for both ratings and look for contenders that qualify in both, focusing on the price horses.

I'll find out how good it is on saturday.

[Amazin]

Shacopate

What you described in your opening post was basically how the "Pops and tips" system worked.It assigned a point for each "tip".A tip was any number of factors the author felt was significant. Some of the factors you described were tips including the Z pattern. This was basically unrecorded trouble of the horse gaining ground,losing ground and re-gaining ground.

I have come a long way since Pops and Tips.I devoloped my own manual system that is very solid.But like you say manual systems are too time consuming. I've had my system put into computer form,and it speeds things up,but accuracy and insight are sacrificed. A computer just cannot deal as successfully with the idiosynchrocies of pp's like the human mind and real experience.

At this point,I have to agree with Dick Mitchell when he states in his books,that you don't make money in an occupation without hard work and why would we be so naive to think horseracing is an exception.

[Shacopate]

Amazing,

Excellent post. Hard work, hard work, hard work.

That is the edge we have when applied.

But I didn't want to put all my energy into just one handicapping factor such as form.

I've created a formula based on the following factors; class, speed, early speed and form.

And, like I said, they are easily calculated by hand.

The goal is to select "live" contenders against the grain, using numbers that no one else has.

Most of the time I put into a race will be in deciding the best way to frame the bet.

[Amazin]

Shacopate

My "system" is basically similar to what you are talking about. What I did as a blueprint to my system was to think about all the angles or factors I had used successfully throughout the years and put them all together into one"system". This includes adjusting times that Pops and Tips ignored.(I think they feel time only counts in prison).

In general,in will show me the contenders,but occasionally have a shot stick out like a sore thumb as a single. Yesterday's last at SA for example with a 25-1 FTS making his debut on grass. I use to pass these races but developed my own "tips" for inexperienced horses or first time turfers.

As far as betting goes(the more difficult phase),I have come to detach myself from liking a low odds horse but will use him in exoctics to multiply value. Like Cramer says,you have to start liking odds,instead of horses.So when I get 4 contenders in a race and 2 are favs and 2 have value,it's now automatic who I key. If I lose cause the 2 favs come in,who cares.But if my bomb wins and I don't have him(cause I second guessed him)I need a drink

[Fastracehorse]

I could see the Drysdale firster too.

Was there anything special for you about it??

fffastt

[Amazin]

Fast:

My "system" rated the #2 Grafton ($55.00) on top. It's a point assignment thing as I said to Shacopate. Top 4 contenders according to the system were:

Grafton 2 points
Sterny 1-1/2 points
Signature Sunday 1-1/4 points
American Liberty 1 point.

I gave Grafton points for breeding.His breeding was superior for turf.Sire Rahy gets high marks for turf progency.I check all 3 male sires .I don't assume the horse is more influenced by the latest sire.You never know where they are influenced the most by.so I use all 3 sires.The Dam's sire Danzig is even better than Rahy on turf. I use Mike Helm's book "Exploring Pedigree" to assign breeding points.

I gave Grafton points for Drysdale's first time turf percentage as you pointed out.Also noted that Drysdale had the 2nd choice (American Liberty) in the race,but no points awarded for 2 in a race,just suspicious.

The last credit I gave Grafton was because his stud fee and yealing fee's were substantial enough to note.80k/105k. I only give this credit for FTS.

I could do these calculations in my head and make mental notes.But I usually forget and it's not as clear as seeing it written on paper with the highest point total.

[Fastracehorse]

Do you remember a horse named Sea of Secrets??

That was probably 6 years ago now but it was a Drysdale firster that taught me alot about firsters.

Anyways, 'Secret won by many lengths at 20-1. He didn't have a gate work and he had gaps in his works - 2 factors that most public handicappers demand to see.

Thanx for the reply,

fffastt