Latest Poll on Badger State Crisis

[Ocala Mike]

I guess PA posters weren't canvassed:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/us/01poll.html?_r=2&hp

Of course, this is Pravda speaking (NY Times/CBS). So, what is the "will of the people" other than clearly divided on this and so many other issues in our country? Because of this division, I have to laugh when I hear politicians of any stripe claiming they're carrying out the people's wishes which they know so well.


Ocala Mike

[prospector]

ny times/cbs? ever hear of credibility?
everyone i talk to is in favor of the governors..
its over for the union in wisc..learn to deal with it..
no more piggies at the public trough..they should get no more than the public sector..they are no more special than i am or any of my neighbors..

[ArlJim78]

the will of the people is reflected in the election of gov Walker, and the Wisconsin house and senate turning Republican in a landslide, not in a NYT/CBS poll. pol's should be doing what is right, and not reading pols and moistening their fingers in order to determine a course of action.

[Ocala Mike]

ny times/cbs? ever hear of credibility?

everyone i talk to is in favor of the governors..



prospector, didn't you see my jab (Pravda?).

As far as everyone you talk to being in favor of the governors, I am trying to get across the point that the country is a lot bigger than the circles that you and I run around in. There's also a "birds of a feather" syndrome, right? We tend, where possible, to associate with people who think like us and share our attitudes.

I would expect that pollsters know how to sample a population scientifically, but I too am skeptical of some of the results the different pollsters come up with.


Ocala Mike

[Robert Goren]

While I favor the worker's side, I take any poll with a grain of salt. I worked for Gallup for a brief period time and I know how they get their numbers. There is nothing scientific about it.

[DJofSD]

While I favor the worker's side, I take any poll with a grain of salt. I worked for Gallup for a brief period time and I know how they get their numbers. There is nothing scientific about it.
Pray tell, what is the correct scientific method to taking a poll?

[ArlJim78]

some of the details are leaking out about this poll. its amazing what they will do to steer the answer to the one they are looking for.
here are the detail (http://hotair.com/archives/2011/03/01/a-peek-under-the-hood-of-the-nytcbs-poll/)s.

briefly
they used a 36/24/31 sample split for Democrat/Rep/Independent
Republicans have been for some time now been polling higher than democrats, yet this was weighted heavily for Dems

20% of poll respondents claimed to be from union households, while only 11.9% of workers belong to a union

25% claimed to be public employees or shared a household with a public employee, yet the total percentage of all gov workers is only 17%

[Tom]

The only poll that counted was held in November.

[boxcar]

prospector, didn't you see my jab (Pravda?).

As far as everyone you talk to being in favor of the governors, I am trying to get across the point that the country is a lot bigger than the circles that you and I run around in. There's also a "birds of a feather" syndrome, right? We tend, where possible, to associate with people who think like us and share our attitudes.

I would expect that pollsters know how to sample a population scientifically, but I too am skeptical of some of the results the different pollsters come up with.

Ocala Mike

Slick pollsters routinely know how to skew a poll with the type of questions they ask and how they ask them and who they poll.

As far as I can tell, the people in Wisconsin want to reign in runaway spending not just for this budget but for years to come. This means some fundamental reforms have to be made to the budget structure, which involves unions.

Boxcar

[boxcar]

some of the details are leaking out about this poll. its amazing what they will do to steer the answer to the one they are looking for.
here are the detail (http://hotair.com/archives/2011/03/01/a-peek-under-the-hood-of-the-nytcbs-poll/)s.

briefly
they used a 36/24/31 sample split for Democrat/Rep/Independent
Republicans have been for some time now been polling higher than democrats, yet this was weighted heavily for Dems

20% of poll respondents claimed to be from union households, while only 11.9% of workers belong to a union

25% claimed to be public employees or shared a household with a public employee, yet the total percentage of all gov workers is only 17%

As I type this, El Rushbo is bringing these facts to light. Now get this: To get this information, one must go to page 17, 7th paragraph of the paper to find it! In other words, they buried the info.

Good post, Jim! :ThmbUp:

Boxcar

[prospector]

prospector, didn't you see my jab (Pravda?).

As far as everyone you talk to being in favor of the governors, I am trying to get across the point that the country is a lot bigger than the circles that you and I run around in. There's also a "birds of a feather" syndrome, right? We tend, where possible, to associate with people who think like us and share our attitudes.

I would expect that pollsters know how to sample a population scientifically, but I too am skeptical of some of the results the different pollsters come up with.


Ocala Mike
APOLOGIES..missed pravda

[mostpost]

some of the details are leaking out about this poll. its amazing what they will do to steer the answer to the one they are looking for.
here are the detail (http://hotair.com/archives/2011/03/01/a-peek-under-the-hood-of-the-nytcbs-poll/)s.

briefly
they used a 36/24/31 sample split for Democrat/Rep/Independent
Republicans have been for some time now been polling higher than democrats, yet this was weighted heavily for Dems

20% of poll respondents claimed to be from union households, while only 11.9% of workers belong to a union

25% claimed to be public employees or shared a household with a public employee, yet the total percentage of all gov workers is only 17%
The way you have that worded it appears that you are trying to tell us that
NYT/CBS selects the respondents ahead of time to conform to national percentages. Not true. If you google "Gallup Poll Methodology" there is a long explanation of how they conduct their polls. I would think other polling organizations conduct their polls similarly

The sample is random, but the method of achieving randomness is complex and specific. Any sample should give a fair distribution along various criterion.
Fair, but not exact. That is why pollsters include information on who was polled so you can interpret the numbers. (I had the thought that the numbers we see are scientifically adjusted to account for an excess or lack of representation by a group, but that appears not to be the case.)

You can argue that surveying 20% union households, when only 12% of household are union nationally changes the results. You can't argue that it changes them by 8%. (Which, by the way would put the margin at 52% to 41%-still a substantial margin in favor of the unions) Even if you replaced all those union members with republicans, the poll shows that Republicans opposed the unions by "a slim margin." Whether you like it or not, Americans support the unions on this one.

[mostpost]

As I type this, El Rushbo is bringing these facts to light. Now get this: To get this information, one must go to page 17, 7th paragraph of the paper to find it! In other words, they buried the info.

Good post, Jim! :ThmbUp:

Boxcar

Funny, 'cause I found it on the first page of the article in Ocala Mike's link.
In any case we all know that it's impossible to construct a survey that perfectly matches the population among all demographic lines. The only survey that would do that would have to include the whole population. That's why pertinent information concerning the makeup of those surveyed is always included. If the information was on page 17 that just means that other information was considered more important. Like the results of the survey and an explanation of what was being asked and some comments on the questions by individuals. That stuff is news. The fact that every survey isn't demographically perfect is something everybody knows; or should. :bang:

[dartman51]

The way you have that worded it appears that you are trying to tell us that
NYT/CBS selects the respondents ahead of time to conform to national percentages. Not true. If you google "Gallup Poll Methodology" there is a long explanation of how they conduct their polls. I would think other polling organizations conduct their polls similarly

The sample is random, but the method of achieving randomness is complex and specific. Any sample should give a fair distribution along various criterion.
Fair, but not exact. That is why pollsters include information on who was polled so you can interpret the numbers. (I had the thought that the numbers we see are scientifically adjusted to account for an excess or lack of representation by a group, but that appears not to be the case.)

You can argue that surveying 20% union households, when only 12% of household are union nationally changes the results. You can't argue that it changes them by 8%. (Which, by the way would put the margin at 52% to 41%-still a substantial margin in favor of the unions) Even if you replaced all those union members with republicans, the poll shows that Republicans opposed the unions by "a slim margin." Whether you like it or not, Americans support the unions on this one.

Do you actually believe the BS that you spread. If that poll is done in the South, it's 5-1 against the unions. WFM :bang:

[bigmack]

.)You can argue that surveying 20% union households, when only 12% of household are union nationally changes the results. You can't argue that it changes them by 8%. (Which, by the way would put the margin at 52% to 41%-still a substantial margin in favor of the unions) Even if you replaced all those union members with republicans, the poll shows that Republicans opposed the unions by "a slim margin." Whether you like it or not, Americans support the unions on this one.
What's the square root of BS?

[Tom]

What's the square root of BS?

mp?

[Tom]

Whether you like it or not, Americans support the unions on this one.

Not the ones who voted in Wisconsin.
There is nothing going on there that was not promised before the election.

[boxcar]

Funny, 'cause I found it on the first page of the article in Ocala Mike's link.
In any case we all know that it's impossible to construct a survey that perfectly matches the population among all demographic lines. The only survey that would do that would have to include the whole population. That's why pertinent information concerning the makeup of those surveyed is always included. If the information was on page 17 that just means that other information was considered more important. Like the results of the survey and an explanation of what was being asked and some comments on the questions by individuals. That stuff is news. The fact that every survey isn't demographically perfect is something everybody knows; or should. :bang:

Yes, intelligent people do. But Poll Worshipers like your buddy Hcap, as on example, who live and die with their polls, apparently don't know this.

Having said this, however, the fact that the poll was so badly skewed in one direction, tells this intelligent writer that no real effort was made to conduct the poll impartially in order to achieve the most honest, unbiased results possible.

Also, very many intelligent people know that oftentimes very important and pertinent information is intentionally buried in a news piece because the paper decides what is important and that will be more prominently displayed in the article. The paper figures that many people will not read the whole piece carefully and either skip the buried stuff altogether or just gloss over it in the hopes that the readers will diminish or even dismiss its true value.

Hope you have enjoyed this teachable moment as much as I have. ;)

Boxcar

[boxcar]

Do you actually believe the BS that you spread. If that poll is done in the South, it's 5-1 against the unions. WFM :bang:

He's is hopeless. I guess he didn't get the HOPE part of Obama's memo -- and probably not the CHANGE part either because he's the same ol, tired, wearisome Mosty. :D

Boxcar

[Robert Goren]

The biggest problem with telephone polling is the cell phone. Even they get responder on a cell, the chances of getting to them take the poll is next to none.

Here is who is in the poll.
Land line users ... A pretty unique group these days. Only one person I know still uses a land line as his personal phone.
People who are willing to spend the time answering questions. I am not sure that they represent a cross section of the public at large.
All in all, not a good sample of the population today.

[boxcar]

The biggest problem with telephone polling is the cell phone. Even they get responder on a cell, the chances of getting to them take the poll is next to none.

Here is who is in the poll.
Land line users ... A pretty unique group these days. Only one person I know still uses a land line as his personal phone.
People who are willing to spend the time answering questions. I am not sure that they represent a cross section of the public at large.
All in all, not a good sample of the population today.

No! The biggest problem is finding scrupulously honest pollsters!

Boxcar

[DJofSD]

I don't know the root of BS but I do have a corrilary: if you can not dazzle 'em with brilliance baffle 'em with BS.

[dartman51]

I don't know the root of BS but I do have a corrilary: if you can not dazzle 'em with brilliance baffle 'em with BS.

BINGO!! I am convinced that Mostie has a BS in Scatology.

[NJ Stinks]

Do you actually believe the BS that you spread. If that poll is done in the South, it's 5-1 against the unions. WFM :bang:

That's must be why the standard of living is so much higher down South. :rolleyes:

[rastajenk]

And why the cost of living is so much higher in El Norte. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[bigmack]

That's must be why the standard of living is so much higher down South. :rolleyes:
You ever been to Detroit? Maybe, just maybe, jobs have been shipped overseas because union goons want ridiculous pensions and benefits that burden businesses to the point of them taking their work elsewhere.

Nah. Makes too much sense.

QO7VUklDlQw

[NJ Stinks]

Detroit? Your comeback is Detroit? :sleeping:

[NJ Stinks]

And why the cost of living is so much higher in El Norte. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Because union shops don't condone slave labor.

Geez, pay attention, Rasta. :p

[boxcar]

Because union shops don't condone slave labor.

Geez, pay attention, Rasta. :p

And what non-union shops do and, if any, which states allow "slave labor"?

Looking forward to your reply,
Boxcar

[mostpost]

Do you actually believe the BS that you spread. If that poll is done in the South, it's 5-1 against the unions. WFM :bang:

What part of National Poll escapes you? The poll was done in the South, and the north and all over the country. 60% favored the unions. Whether you like it or not.

[mostpost]

The biggest problem with telephone polling is the cell phone. Even they get responder on a cell, the chances of getting to them take the poll is next to none.

Here is who is in the poll.
Land line users ... A pretty unique group these days. Only one person I know still uses a land line as his personal phone.
People who are willing to spend the time answering questions. I am not sure that they represent a cross section of the public at large.
All in all, not a good sample of the population today.
The article I referenced in regard to methodology was from 1997. Don't know how they deal with the cell phone issue.

[mostpost]

No! The biggest problem is finding scrupulously honest pollsters!

Boxcar

And how do we determine which is a scrupulously honest pollster? Let me guess!
If the pollster's findings agree with Boxcar's preconceived notions he is honest. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[bigmack]

mosty gettin' all cocksure 'cause of a ginned-up poll & then thinking people actually care about it. :lol:

Ain't gonna change a darn thing about the bill being passed in WI and then on to other states.

[boxcar]

And how do we determine which is a scrupulously honest pollster? Let me guess!
If the pollster's findings agree with Boxcar's preconceived notions he is honest. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

You're without a clue. Intelligent people can determine when polls have been skewed. When a poll doesn't represent a fair demographics cross section, then we know it was a deliberately biased poll in order to produce desired results.

We can also know with a fair degree of certainty that a poll has been skewed just by the organization that conducted it. In this case, the N.Y. Slimes is owned by this administration, so we can expect nothing but dishonesty from this paper. Birdies of a feather and all that good stuff...

Boxcar

[riskman]

the will of the people is reflected in the election of gov Walker, and the Wisconsin house and senate turning Republican in a landslide, not in a NYT/CBS poll. pol's should be doing what is right, and not reading pols and moistening their fingers in order to determine a course of action.

True, this I believe is a national poll. The poll that counts was taken in the voting booth on election day in WI. Just for the hell of it, I would like to see a current poll taken from Wisconsin resident voters on this issue.
The results may be surprising.

[NJ Stinks]

mosty gettin' all cocksure 'cause of a ginned-up poll & then thinking people actually care about it. :lol:

Ain't gonna change a darn thing about the bill being passed in WI and then on to other states.

Guess what, BigMac. If govs like Walker bury much of what's left of the middle class in their states, say hello to four more years of Barack Obama.

There aren't enough righties in the deep end of the pool in enough states to allow this BS to continue for any length of time.

You don't have to agree with me, of course. Just let me know when you see the opening line on the 2012 presidential election. :cool:

[bigmack]

Bury the middle class? The entire state of WI is middle class. Walker ran on doing this very thing.

Who do you think elected him, rich people? :lol:

HcQ7hwRhKIs

[NJ Stinks]

Saying you are gonna stop a train many may or may not ride is one thing.

Sticking a fork in the middle class is something else.

Republicans should do good in off-year elections. (Hence, Walker. :rolleyes: ) Because if there is one thing righties need, it's a low turnout and/or foul weather of some kind.

That's it - you guys are mudders! :jump:

Dems need a fast track with no bias. Of course! ;)

[mostpost]

You're without a clue. Intelligent people can determine when polls have been skewed. When a poll doesn't represent a fair demographics cross section, then we know it was a deliberately biased poll in order to produce desired results.

We can also know with a fair degree of certainty that a poll has been skewed just by the organization that conducted it. In this case, the N.Y. Slimes is owned by this administration, so we can expect nothing but dishonesty from this paper. Birdies of a feather and all that good stuff...

Boxcar
I will try to explain this to you again. (He said dubiously) When a polling organization takes a poll it doesn't say we have to interview 35% republicans and 40% Democrats and 30% Independents, because that is what the proportion of those groups is in the country. Nor does it say 12% of our respondents and no more have to union. Nor does it say since 17% of the population are government workers our sample must include 17% government workers; no more, no less.
The pollster relies on the randomness of his sample to get close to the proportions of the population at large. As part of the polling process, the pollster asks the person being polled a series of questions relating to that person's politics, occupation and whatever else is pertinent to that particular pool. That information is always included with the poll.

Your comments on the New York Times and the fact that you call it the New York Slimes, proves my point that you have your opinion and will only accept information which reinforces that opinion. Everything else is just lies to you.

[bigmack]

Sticking a fork in the middle class is something else.
"Sticking a fork in." Is that your dramatic way of saying this will be the end of the middle class? WOW!

Do explain.

[NJ Stinks]

"Sticking a fork in." Is that your dramatic way of saying this will be the end of the middle class? WOW!

Do explain.

Oh no, Mack. This is going to make the middle class stronger. Nothing makes for a stronger middle class than nobody in the middle class having any pension benefits, or healthcare benefits, and if at all possible - no sickdays and 10 days off a year tops.

I mean - just look at the last 30 years. Obviously, losing benes and the loss of union representation has done nothing to hurt the middle class. :rolleyes:

[bigmack]

Axing them to contribute 12% of their HC and a single digit for their pensions and taking away collective bargaining ONLY for benefits and it's the end of the world?

Can you say drama queen?

[boxcar]

Guess what, BigMac. If govs like Walker bury much of what's left of the middle class in their states, say hello to four more years of Barack Obama.

There aren't enough righties in the deep end of the pool in enough states to allow this BS to continue for any length of time.

You don't have to agree with me, of course. Just let me know when you see the opening line on the 2012 presidential election. :cool:

Guess what, NJ? It is the middle class taxpayers, who largely pay the freight of public employees, who Walker is trying to protect. Someone has to put an end to this tax and spend madness. This is what the last election was primarily about -- and also repealing ObaminationCare.

Boxcar

[NJ Stinks]

Axing them to contribute 12% of their HC and a single digit for their pensions and taking away collective bargaining ONLY for benefits and it's the end of the world?

Can you say drama queen?

How many people today get an annuity when they retire vs. 30 years ago? If you don't get a fixed annuity, I hope the economy stays strong for your 401(k). Because hope is all you really got IMO.

Oh yea. You also have your SS check that conservatives want you to invest too.

Let me ask you a question for a change. What's better? A fixed annuity or a 401(k) for somebody in the middle class?

[bigmack]

Let me ask you a question for a change. What's better? A fixed annuity or a 401(k) for somebody in the middle class?
If they're healthy & over 55 a FA. If they're unhealthy 401K and lotto tickets.

[NJ Stinks]

If they're healthy & over 55 a FA. If they're unhealthy 401K and lotto tickets.

I agree.

[Ocala Mike]

It is the middle class taxpayers, who largely pay the freight of public employees, who Walker is trying to protect.

Boxcar

Public employees ARE middle class taxpayers. Walker is not trying to protect anyone except people to whom he owes favors.

Here's another poll for all you Walker jock-sniffers to ponder:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2011/feb/28/wisconsin-poll-gov-walker-would-lose-rematch/


Ocala Mike

[boxcar]

Public employees ARE middle class taxpayers. Walker is not trying to protect anyone except people to whom he owes favors.

My central point, you have missed entirely. Public employees are only "middle class taxpayers" because private sector middle class employees made it possible for them to achieve that status. Think about it.

Boxcar