Apple Blossom field will be the best ever if everyone stays healthy

[kingoftherapids]

Blind Luck, Evening Jewel, Zardana, Havre de Grace, No Such Word, Unrivaled Belle
http://www.drf.com/news/harmonius-heading-back-turf-santa-ana
Guys it doesnt get any better than that.

[Dahoss9698]

Best ever?

[kingoftherapids]

if all of those horses get to run it will be. azeri, bayakoa, zenyatta, paseana were all some of the best fillies to win it, but a field with all of those runners would be incredible.

[Dahoss9698]

if all of those horses get to run it will be. azeri, bayakoa, zenyatta, paseana were all some of the best fillies to win it, but a field with all of those runners would be incredible.

The 1995 field saw Heavenly prize, Paseana, Halo America, Klassy Kim, Borodislew and Cinnamon Sugar. Paseana and Heavenly Prize were both champions and multiple grade 1 winners. Halo America was a grade 1 winner and won multiple grade 2 and 3's. Klassy Kim won multiple grade 2's. Borodislew won multiple grade 2's and Cinnamon Sugar was a grade 2 winner. This is when horses actually raced against each other and IMO the quality of the fields these horses were beating was much better.

The 1996 field was pretty solid also. If all of those horses show up this year it will be a very solid race. But not the best edition ever IMO.

[Cardus]

if all of those horses get to run it will be. azeri, bayakoa, zenyatta, paseana were all some of the best fillies to win it, but a field with all of those runners would be incredible.

It would be wonderful -- not incredible -- if all of the horses that you mentioned in the thread starter raced in the Apple Blossom this year.

Your thread title, though, is straight out of the Zenyattaville.

[kingoftherapids]

the whole trifecta from the ladies classic + another g1 winner and third in the BC ladies sprint + a grade 2 winner + another g1 winner.... thats incredible. what is a race male or female besides the triple crown or breeders cup that has had that kind of quality in the last 5 years

[Cardus]

the whole trifecta from the ladies classic + another g1 winner and third in the BC ladies sprint + a grade 2 winner + another g1 winner.... thats incredible. what is a race male or female besides the triple crown or breeders cup that has had that kind of quality in the last 5 years

And your thread title?

[kingoftherapids]

what about the thread title?

[Cardus]

what about the thread title?

You think that your thread title is accurate?

It's not even close.

[Valuist]

I would have to side with Da Hoss that the 1995 running was stronger, even if all those "potentials" do actually show up.

[kingoftherapids]

who was in that race besides those two and what had they accomplished?

[Tom]

It'll be the best one this year!

[Dahoss9698]

who was in that race besides those two and what had they accomplished?

I already said who was in that race in a prior post. IMO you are grossly overestimating the talent of the horses that are considering the race. Blind Luck, Havre De Grace and Unrivalled Belle are okay. The rest...not so much. And they all would have been also rans in the 1995 edition.

[kingoftherapids]

imo, you are grossly overestimating the enormity of the BREEDERS CUP LADIES CLASSIC.How can you say the those horses are "okay?"

[Dahoss9698]

imo, you are grossly overestimating the enormity of the BREEDERS CUP LADIES CLASSIC.How can you say the those horses are "okay?"

Because they are okay, nothing more. They aren't anywhere near the horses that Heavenly Prize, Paseana and Halo America were. Not even close.

[kingoftherapids]

yea, they need to all drop in for a tag

[Dahoss9698]

yea, they need to all drop in for a tag

And people wonder why I have a chip on my shoulder sometimes....

[kingoftherapids]

bc your racing opinions are solid as your pecks :):):)

[Tom]

How can you say this will one of the best ever when you have no historical perspective of ones run before?

Why does every thing have to be the best ever? "Ever" means a lot longer than any of us have been watching races, not the last year or two.

[ArlJim78]

best ever, second best ever, whatever. who cares?
It looks like it could be a good race.

[Relwob Owner]

yea, they need to all drop in for a tag


Your point of it being the best ever is off IMO and that has already been shown through examples from posts in this thread discussing past fields. I think you could say that the horses you mentioned would comprise one of the most competetive fields ever, as they all seem to be accomplished horses that are probably a notch below past greats ability wise.

[Valuist]

imo, you are grossly overestimating the enormity of the BREEDERS CUP LADIES CLASSIC.How can you say the those horses are "okay?"

Were any of those runners in the Ladies Classic as good as Zenyatta? Guess what.....Paseana and Heavenly Prize were BOTH as good as Zenyatta.

[Grits]

There's one thing for sure, regardless who shows up in the entry box . . . . their fans show up. Having gone last year for the weekend, it was a great place to be in early April. Beautiful weather and racefans were everywhere. And they were all friendly.

[Dahoss9698]

best ever, second best ever, whatever. who cares?
It looks like it could be a good race.

Another solid hit and run contribution. :ThmbUp:

[kingoftherapids]

What i am saying is that if the 6 of these horses enter the starting gate it will be the most quality field to ever enter the starting gate for the apple blossom

the heavenly prize, halo america, paseana race had only 6 runners and is in the slowest 3rd of blossoms ever run (24th out of 35).
5 of the 6 horses i mentioned ran faster mile and a sixteenth times last time at the distance than the winning time of 1:42.60. also of note that halo america and heavenly prize ran a race a month before at oaklawn that was 1:42.59 so it wasn't a one time slow time for a mile and sixteenth that year at oaklawn. and dont give me the crap about the track playing slower... cigar ran a 1:47.1 2 races later at a mile and an eight.

[ArlJim78]

Another solid hit and run contribution. :ThmbUp:
not as solid as your great work on this thread, more meaningless drivel over nothing, with the sole intent a vain effort to appear more knowledgable than others. It ain't working.

[the little guy]

What i am saying is that if the 6 of these horses enter the starting gate it will be the most quality field to ever enter the starting gate for the apple blossom

the heavenly prize, halo america, paseana race had only 6 runners and is in the slowest 3rd of blossoms ever run (24th out of 35).
5 of the 6 horses i mentioned ran faster mile and a sixteenth times last time at the distance than the winning time of 1:42.60. also of note that halo america and heavenly prize ran a race a month before at oaklawn that was 1:42.59 so it wasn't a one time slow time for a mile and sixteenth that year at oaklawn. and dont give me the crap about the track playing slower... cigar ran a 1:47.1 2 races later at a mile and an eight.


So, which is it, the highest quality field ever or the fastest race ever you are looking for? The 1996 Apple Blossom didn't come up a very fast race, you are correct, as it " only " earned a 104 Beyer ( I'll take a shot, however, this year's race gets a lower number ). However, in 1990 when Gorgeous beat Bayakoa, the race got a 119 Beyer fig ( those two horses had more talent between them than the field you mentioned ). In 1997, Halo America, a member of that " slow " 1996 field, beat Jewel Princess and Different with a 114 Beyer fig. The roster of good horses, winning fast runnings, of the Apple Blossom is extensive.

The problem, I am guessing, lies in the latest fad on message boards of declaring whatever is happening lately as " the best evah " with a complete disregard, along with a general ignorance, of history. Hey, I'm with you in hoping that group gathers together for the Apple Blossom, as it looks like a super entertaining race, and as good a group as you can possibly ask for at this time. But, doesn't it stand up well enough as a great potential race/match-up to look forward to......without having to call it something it's not?

[kingoftherapids]

also the fad is trusting andy beyer and his "figures"

[the little guy]

also the fad is trusting andy beyer and his "figures"


Please enlighten us, oh wise one, who in the field you mentioned is better than Gorgeous, Bayakoa, Susan's Girl, Lady's Secret, Life's Magic, Heatherton, Jameela, Bld 'n Determined, Sefa's Beauty, Goodbye Halo, Paseana, Heavenly Prize, Halo America, Serena's Song, Escena, Glitter Woman, Different, Twice the Vice, Jewel Princess, Banshee Breeze, Sister Act, Heritage of Gold, Take Charge Lady, or Azeri.

Put up or shut up.

[The Bit]

also the fad is trusting andy beyer and his "figures"

So now you are going to dispute that race tracks don't change? And you can blindly look at final times to compare horses from days, weeks, decades gone by?

You are in for a long, turbulent stay here at PA :)

[Sugar Ron]

Were any of those runners in the Ladies Classic as good as Zenyatta? Guess what.....Paseana and Heavenly Prize were BOTH as good as Zenyatta.

Nothing like a good belly laugh with your sencha first thing in the morning

Thanks, man


At least P was good enough to win a BC race.

You should be comparing the other one (HP) with fillies like RA.


Z was in a different league ... and over that classic American distance, would've schooled every filly or mare that you've seen in your lifetime, in my view.

[the little guy]

Nothing like a good belly laugh with your sencha first thing in the morning

Thanks, man


At least P was good enough to win a BC race.

You should be comparing the other one (HP) with fillies like RA.


Z was in a different league ... and over that classic American distance, would've schooled every filly or mare that you've seen in your lifetime, in my view.


Actually, One Trick Dopey, he was nice and didn't say what most here know, that both were better horses than Zenyatta.

[The Bit]

The "ever" label is thrown around far too loosely almost everywhere these days.

And, the other thing I think happens around here is that someone new to the board doesn't understand how knowledgeable and intelligent most of the people here are. Kingoftherapids in some of his first post felt he needed to inform us that "Travelin Man was a monster" and that "Uncle Mo was derby fav" or that "The Factor was a socal monster". That is great and appreciated, but 99.5% of those of us here don't need to be told that. So when you come to PA and make a statement like the one made here, you better have the facts and knowledge to back it up and be able to put it down in a way that makes sense and supports your point.

[PhantomOnTour]

Wow, a new poster makes an excited utterance about the Apple Blossom and some veterans on this board totally lose it. Yeah man! Let him have it!! :rolleyes:
Chill out fellas.

[cj]

Wow, a new poster makes an excited utterance about the Apple Blossom and some veterans on this board totally lose it. Yeah man! Let him have it!! :rolleyes:
Chill out fellas.

You really think he is a new poster? One of his posts in this thread sure makes it seem like he has been here before.

[Sugar Ron]

Actually, One Trick Dopey, he was nice and didn't say what most here know, that both were better horses than Zenyatta.

Belly laugh # 2

Thanks, Throat


By the way, didn't "most here" think that Z was gunna get exposed at CD?

[kingoftherapids]

what about uncle brent that ran the fastest 6f of the oaklawn meet and was unraced? sorry ya'll just lost out on the rest of my stable notes from working horses in the morning. if you would like to keep getting my notes, pm me. i am not posting them anymore

[PhantomOnTour]

You really think he is a new poster? One of his posts in this thread sure makes it seem like he has been here before.
That I am not aware of. Ya'll seem to recognize old posters better than me.
Still, it seems like some folks are burning a lot of energy dueling with this cheap speed, ya know?

[Tom]

The problem, I am guessing, lies in the latest fad on message boards of declaring whatever is happening lately as " the best evah " with a complete disregard, along with a general ignorance, of history. Hey, I'm with you in hoping that group gathers together for the Apple Blossom, as it looks like a super entertaining race, and as good a group as you can possibly ask for at this time. But, doesn't it stand up well enough as a great potential race/match-up to look forward to......without having to call it something it's not?

This is undoubtedly the greatest post ever to appear here at PaceAdvantage. The best ever by far!;)

[cj]

Belly laugh # 2

Thanks, Throat


By the way, didn't "most here" think that Z was gunna get exposed at CD?

Most, no, but many of us did. Guess what, we were right. She lost to an average stakes horse. He was good, but certainly nothing special.

[The Bit]

what about uncle brent that ran the fastest 6f of the oaklawn meet and was unraced? sorry ya'll just lost out on the rest of my stable notes from working horses in the morning. if you would like to keep getting my notes, pm me. i am not posting them anymore

You don't have to completely overreact. I said that the stuff you write is appreciated. ArchArchArch was another good one you mentioned. But we don't need to be told about Uncle Mo. Statements like that lead me to believe that some people don't understand the amount of knowledge here and how closely the contributors follow the sport. That being said, you cannot make "ever" statements here without expecting people to dispute them. It is an internet message board in which opinions are shared. You have yours, and everyone has their own.

[the little guy]

what about uncle brent that ran the fastest 6f of the oaklawn meet and was unraced? sorry ya'll just lost out on the rest of my stable notes from working horses in the morning. if you would like to keep getting my notes, pm me. i am not posting them anymore


Posted like a true newbie!

[the little guy]

This is undoubtedly the greatest post ever to appear here at PaceAdvantage. The best ever by far!;)


There were a few that were better.....but who am I to quibble.

[kingoftherapids]

I will name my next horse, The Little Guy or Little Guy Syndrome

[the little guy]

Yeah, Phantom on Tour, you really nailed this one. He's quite a newbie.

So boorish.

[kingoftherapids]

i wonder why younger people dont get into horse racing more. lol guys like you crucify them if they get on a message board claiming that a group of horses running in one race is better than any group of horses that has EVER run in that same race.

[kingoftherapids]

ya'll are in luck or not in luck because i will fend for myself and not give into people who have a different opinion.

[Relwob Owner]

So, which is it, the highest quality field ever or the fastest race ever you are looking for? The 1996 Apple Blossom didn't come up a very fast race, you are correct, as it " only " earned a 104 Beyer ( I'll take a shot, however, this year's race gets a lower number ). However, in 1990 when Gorgeous beat Bayakoa, the race got a 119 Beyer fig ( those two horses had more talent between them than the field you mentioned ). In 1997, Halo America, a member of that " slow " 1996 field, beat Jewel Princess and Different with a 114 Beyer fig. The roster of good horses, winning fast runnings, of the Apple Blossom is extensive.

The problem, I am guessing, lies in the latest fad on message boards of declaring whatever is happening lately as " the best evah " with a complete disregard, along with a general ignorance, of history. Hey, I'm with you in hoping that group gathers together for the Apple Blossom, as it looks like a super entertaining race, and as good a group as you can possibly ask for at this time. But, doesn't it stand up well enough as a great potential race/match-up to look forward to......without having to call it something it's not?



Tom beat me to it but you put into words a perfect response to his post and also summarized what seems to be happening in all sports in terms of "best ever", "instant classic" status and how doing that cheapens past events.....your post also proved its worth simply by the fact that it didnt get a composed response or debate, just one questioning Beyer's numbers.....

[Sugar Ron]

Tom beat me to it but you put into words a perfect response to his post and also summarized what seems to be happening in all sports in terms of "best ever", "instant classic" status and how doing that cheapens past events.....your post also proved its worth simply by the fact that it didnt get a composed response or debate, just one questioning Beyer's numbers.....

There's also a tendency by some to over-glorify past runners.

Not sure if Throat thinks Bayakoa is better than Z too ... but despite her apparent big number in that '90 AB ... she couldn't handle some mediocre colt named Quiet American down at the shore later that season.

[kingoftherapids]

beyer hates zenyatta. it is no secret his is super biased toward his certain horses. i love how you will see a higher beyer in a stakes race on the same track the same day even though the time is slower than the exact same distance on that track.

[rastajenk]

Oh, brother. The worms are out of the can now. :eek:

[kingoftherapids]

i respect what he does, but i just dont see how anyone can live off beyer figures and go around spitting them off like they are royal or something.

[Cardus]

what about uncle brent that ran the fastest 6f of the oaklawn meet and was unraced? sorry ya'll just lost out on the rest of my stable notes from working horses in the morning. if you would like to keep getting my notes, pm me. i am not posting them anymore

He was the wagering favorite and the works were in DRF.

He was the logical play in the race, and the only consideration, in my mind, was that he had to beat the Asmussen horse. With only two starters in the race with previous form -- slow form, at that -- a hot firster was the logical play.

Thanks for the offer, but citing Uncle Brent off of your stable notes was not a great example considering what was available publicly.

[kingoftherapids]

well, i made that list 2 whole months ago. you want me to start taking every horse off that has good workouts? i spend more time in the barns in the morning with the trainers and horses than i do at the racetrack in the afternoon. 2.70-1 on uncle brent seemed like a fantastic price to me but that is because i have been on the horse in the morning for a few months

[Cardus]

well, i made that list 2 whole months ago. you want me to start taking every horse off that has good workouts? i spend more time in the barns in the morning with the trainers and horses than i do at the racetrack in the afternoon. 2.70-1 on uncle brent seemed like a fantastic price to me but that is because i have been on the horse in the morning for a few months

It's great that you were on him. I mean that.

However, you're citing a morning line 5-2 horse who went postward as the favorite whose fast workouts were published in the DRF as evidence of the strength of your stable notes.

Why would anyone be impressed?

[Relwob Owner]

There's also a tendency by some to over-glorify past runners.

Not sure if Throat thinks Bayakoa is better than Z too ... but despite her apparent big number in that '90 AB ... she couldn't handle some mediocre colt named Quiet American down at the shore later that season.


I responded to his strong post about the thread topic, and it had nothing to do with Zenyatta, whose great run is in the past.....I think it is tiresome to re-hash that debate. She won the HOY, she was a terrific mare and that is that.

[thaskalos]

Actually, One Trick Dopey, he was nice and didn't say what most here know, that both were better horses than Zenyatta.Well...if that's what most people here think, then it must be true.

After all...isn't this how things work in this game?

[kingoftherapids]

Snow on the Bayou- finished second and third at 16-1 and 9-1

Archarcharch- won at 15-1

that is two from the last week

i can name some more

[Saratoga_Mike]

Snow on the Bayou- finished second and third at 16-1 and 9-1
Archarcharch- won at 15-1

that is two from the last week

i can name some more

When did you mention this horse (besides this post)?

[Dahoss9698]

not as solid as your great work on this thread, more meaningless drivel over nothing, with the sole intent a vain effort to appear more knowledgable than others. It ain't working.

It has nothing to do with trying to appear more knowledgable than anyone. It has to do with perspective. If you are going to stalk me at least have a point every once in awhile. You're acting like a jilted lover.

However, some people seem interested in discussing it because the thread is nearing 5 pages on a slow day. I did notice others who objected to the potential race being called the best ever edition also. Better tell them how meaningless their posts are.

You won't. No backbone.

[Dahoss9698]

Wow, a new poster makes an excited utterance about the Apple Blossom and some veterans on this board totally lose it. Yeah man! Let him have it!! :rolleyes:
Chill out fellas.

Wow, a totally incorrect interpration. Shocking.

[kingoftherapids]

When did you mention this horse (besides this post)?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=80023&highlight=oaklawn

Sorry you didnt see it

[ArlJim78]

Wow, a new poster makes an excited utterance about the Apple Blossom and some veterans on this board totally lose it. Yeah man! Let him have it!! :rolleyes:
Chill out fellas.
at first I was inclined to cut him some slack, but then he proceeded to dig a much deeper hole.

[Saratoga_Mike]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=80023&highlight=oaklawn

Sorry you didnt see it

I didn't open the PDF previously - good work note on him.

[Cardus]

at first I was inclined to cut him some slack, but then he proceeded to dig a much deeper hole.

When someone starts with "best ever", I think that it is OK to call him out on it from the beginning.

[kingoftherapids]

Some of ya'll need to change your sigs to Apple Blossom Handicap Specialist

[PhantomOnTour]

Some in this thread seem to think the op is a re-tread or imposter of some sort. Well, who is he then?

[Relwob Owner]

Some of ya'll need to change your sigs to Apple Blossom Handicap Specialist


This seems strange coming from the person who started the thread.....maybe change your sig?

[kingoftherapids]

i have defended my stance. 6 grade 1 or grade 2 winners which also includes the top 3 finishers from last years classic vs a 6 horse field that had a slow time in the apple blossom with at best 3 or 4 good horses.

[Valuist]

Belly laugh # 2

Thanks, Throat


By the way, didn't "most here" think that Z was gunna get exposed at CD?

Ron-

What was Zenyatta's odds in the Classic, 4-5 or 3-5? Did she reward her backers? Even with a great pace set up and clear room on the outside, she STILL didn't beat Blame. Go ahead and try to rewrite history.

[Valuist]

What i am saying is that if the 6 of these horses enter the starting gate it will be the most quality field to ever enter the starting gate for the apple blossom

the heavenly prize, halo america, paseana race had only 6 runners and is in the slowest 3rd of blossoms ever run (24th out of 35).
5 of the 6 horses i mentioned ran faster mile and a sixteenth times last time at the distance than the winning time of 1:42.60. also of note that halo america and heavenly prize ran a race a month before at oaklawn that was 1:42.59 so it wasn't a one time slow time for a mile and sixteenth that year at oaklawn. and dont give me the crap about the track playing slower... cigar ran a 1:47.1 2 races later at a mile and an eight.

Raw unadjusted times at Oaklawn are worthless. That surface can vary greatly.

King- were you around to see those runnings of the Apple Blossom in the 90s?

[Dahoss9698]

Some in this thread seem to think the op is a re-tread or imposter of some sort. Well, who is he then?

Cmoore maybe?

[cj]

Cmoore maybe?

That would certainly explain his prowess with first time starters.

[PaceAdvantage]

This is an interesting thread on many levels...for instance it provides me with more reasons why I need to return to my hard-ass style of moderating...it's been far too long...

[kingoftherapids]

what needs to be moderated in this convo? seems like a productive thread if u ask me.

[Sugar Ron]

Ron-

What was Zenyatta's odds in the Classic, 4-5 or 3-5? Did she reward her backers? Even with a great pace set up and clear room on the outside, she STILL didn't beat Blame. Go ahead and try to rewrite history.

Pretty lame, Valuist

Anyone with half a brain knew that B was clearly the horse to beat ... and should've been the solid chalk.

No need to "rewrite history" ... the record already shows that the old mare ran a great race.

[Tom]

Anyone with half a brain knew that B was clearly the horse to beat ...

....and he wasn't.

[classhandicapper]

All IMHO......

Personally, I think using Beyer figures to determine either the quality of an individual performance or the depth of quality of a specific field to be so comically discredited at this point, I can't even imagine why they are still part of the discussion among serious handicappers.

This is coming from a guy that's made pace and speed figures on and off for over 35 years, is currently a customer of multiple speed figure services that maker Beyer-like numbers, and that also looks at and uses Beyer figures.

1. There are numerous obvious accuracy issues with all figures that have been discussed to death. I see some that are demonstrably WRONG by 10 points in either direction in highly visible stakes races. That's a potential for a 20 point swing for two horses that are actually equal (one in each direction). So you can imagine how many are off by less than that that I don't notice in insignificant races.

2. Pace impacts time, but measuring pace accurately is an even more difficult task than measuring final time accurately. Determining how the pace impacted an individual horse can be an almost futile endeavor at times because each horse in a race has a different level of overall ability, different level of natural speed vs stamina, finishes the race with a different level of reserve stamina etc.. and each runs a different set of factions.

3. The relationship between pace and time varies from day to day at the same track at the same distance let alone at different tracks, different distances or on different surfaces.

4. Some of the between call action has a significant impact on the final time of horses and that's not even measured.

5. Races are not sprints where everyone is doing their best from start to finish. Superior horses sometimes use inferior horses as a prompter and only do their best running late depriving them of the ability to maximize their final time.

I could go on and on. It's borderline preposterous to take any of these numbers too literally - especially in extreme circumstances.

The reason I continue to purchase and use figures is that sometimes the pace and final time figures help explain races where there is very little information about the quality of the horses and there is way more variability around the average field.

For example, there isn't nearly as much variance in Grade 1 races over time as there is for MSW races and limited winner ALW races.

Stakes vary also, but most Graded stakes horses have sorted themselves out over time by either dominating weaker, consistently beating similar horses (or not) etc.... The extra good ones sort themselves by their level of dominance and consistency over other very good stakes horses.

On the flip side, MSW races and limited ALW winners are sometimes made up of future 5K claimers and sometimes made up of future Grade 1 winners. There is sometimes very limited information available to determine which is which because there are so many FTS and other limited winners. While the accuracy of figures for those races is still highly suspect, it's less suspect than guessing about quality unless you SEE or KNOW something specific about the way the horses has won and gone out after races etc... So the figures become a lesser of two evils.

There are a lot of applications like that where figures help a ton and almost become indispensable, but to me to point to the figure of a specific race and think because it was fast that means it was a high quality performance/deep field or vice versa is almost laughable.

[Saratoga_Mike]

All IMHO......

There are a lot of applications like that where figures help a ton and almost become indispensable, but to me to point to the figure of a specific race and think because it was fast that means it was a high quality performance/deep field or vice versa is almost laughable.

"How the Figure Was Earned" - Chapter Three of "Beyer on Speed" addresses all the issues you mentioned.

[Mineshaft]

Blind Luck, Evening Jewel, Zardana, Havre de Grace, No Such Word, Unrivaled Belle
http://www.drf.com/news/harmonius-heading-back-turf-santa-ana
Guys it doesnt get any better than that.





Our Khrysty is out. retired...

[Dahoss9698]

I want to comment on Classhandicapper's post, but I haven't finished reading it yet. I'm hoping to get through it by Friday and by then I'll try and respond to it.

[classhandicapper]

"How the Figure Was Earned" - Chapter Three of "Beyer on Speed" addresses all the issues you mentioned.

Agreed.

He recognizes some of the issues and problems with numbers, but he doesn't provide a very accurate numeric solution to them because he knows its an extremely complex and elusive area.

So the process evolves into a more subjective analysis of a bunch of issues upon which even very informed people disagree.

At the end of that process the original speed figures are almost irrelevant as a measure of the quality of the performance or the field.

So why even bother mentioning that a particular race or horse earned a fast or slow Beyer as an indication of quality.

[cj]

So why even bother mentioning that a particular race or horse earned a fast or slow Beyer as an indication of quality.

Of course there are exceptions, but I think you are greatly overstating the problems with figures. Many more times than not the best horses of each generation run the best figures. I am sure you know this.

I do think comparisons across generations are on very shaky ground. I have trouble believing all the best horses of years past were lengths better than today's horses in the same grade races.

[classhandicapper]

Of course there are exceptions, but I think you are greatly overstating the problems with figures. Many more times than not the best horses of each generation run the best figures. I am sure you know this.

I do think comparisons across generations are on very shaky ground. I have trouble believing all the best horses of years past were lengths better than today's horses in the same grade races.

I think if one horse is consistently a lot faster than all the other horses in its generation on a specific surface and raced against solid competition in some of those fast races, it is almost certainly superior.

But I do think using individual race figures is very bad idea. The accuracy issues are large and rampant. If you look at the figures from 3-4 figure makers they are often wildly far apart on some of the most important races in the country. I know I disagree with Beyer by 5-10 points on some very big races and prove to be right more often than not.

IMO those problems are only surpassed by pace, trip, race development, quality of race issues.

When you start doing comparisons across surfaces you can get into fantasy land.

I agree that the inter-generational comparisons are twice as complicated because of changing legal drug policies, illegal drugs, differences in the size of crops, and other complexities etc...

I think the best way to evaluate stake horses is to use a more qualitative and consistency based approach where you look at who is beating who how consistency and give extra credit to horses that often do special things to get the job done (like winning despite a terrible pace setup, trouble, racing against a bias, while showing an incredible burst of speed at some point in the race etc..). When a horse is doing that against other quality horses it is often revealing reserves of speed, energy, and stamina that don't always show up in figures.

The figures still have a role in my handicapping, but I mostly just want to know if the race was slow/average/fast relative to the norm without worrying much about the actual number.

[cj]

I agree that the inter-generational comparisons are twice as complicated because of changing legal drug policies, illegal drugs, differences in the size of crops, and other complexities etc...



Every time I start to think there is something amiss with Beyers because they seem to be shrinking, my eyes tell me he is probably right when I see horses struggling in a 750k G1 race like the Big Cap. I'm not sure how Jerry Brown can defend his horses are getting faster stuff these days. Those horses sucked today.

[RXB]

I think it depends on the distance. For example, at 12f the Beyer chart that was developed in yesteryear isn't really applicable anymore because the horses nowadays just don't have the stamina, so the comparison standard is out of whack. The Belmont BSF is almost invariably lower than the Ky Derby and Preakness numbers. This loss of stamina is probably starting to affect 10f races, too.

One thing's for sure: the horses that I grew up admiring were ready for more, two weeks after a big race. Now, the horses need a minimum of four weeks, it seems.

[RXB]

Ron-

What was Zenyatta's odds in the Classic, 4-5 or 3-5? Did she reward her backers? Even with a great pace set up and clear room on the outside, she STILL didn't beat Blame. Go ahead and try to rewrite history.

Not a good bet at 4/5 but just for the record, Blame got at least as good a trip, and a better pace setup thanks to the utter collapse of the weak speed horses on the turn. Of course, a deep closer on the dirt doesn't usually get things to go in its favour; nonetheless, I think she ran quite well.

[classhandicapper]

Every time I start to think there is something amiss with Beyers because they seem to be shrinking, my eyes tell me he is probably right when I see horses struggling in a 750k G1 race like the Big Cap. I'm not sure how Jerry Brown can defend his horses are getting faster stuff these days. Those horses sucked today.

I just wanted to clarify that I'm not singling out Beyer figures. If I still made my own figures I'd face the same issues and occasionally make the same mistakes. So I'd be in the same boat. I'm just pointing out that IMO it's a handicapping error to take any figure too literally as an measure of ability or performance in a specific race.

[classhandicapper]

I think it depends on the distance. For example, at 12f the Beyer chart that was developed in yesteryear isn't really applicable anymore because the horses nowadays just don't have the stamina, so the comparison standard is out of whack. The Belmont BSF is almost invariably lower than the Ky Derby and Preakness numbers. This loss of stamina is probably starting to affect 10f races, too.

One thing's for sure: the horses that I grew up admiring were ready for more, two weeks after a big race. Now, the horses need a minimum of four weeks, it seems.

I agree. I think this could easily be part of the problem.

Last year's Belmont was slow as shit based on Beyer figures, but I don't think it was an extremely low quality race bordering on limited ALW quality.

A couple of the horses in that race ran faster races going into it and then again coming out of the race not long after (much faster). Yesterday's winner of the big race at SA was competitive in that supposedly terrible Belmont.

I think you are correct that a lot of talented horses simply don't want to run that far anymore.

I think you could also make a case that years ago a versatile Grade 1 winning route horse that could also sprint would have a significant edge over the best sprinters. I think the gap has narrowed significantly over 30 years. The sprinters are better.

[FenceBored]

Blind Luck, Evening Jewel, Zardana, Havre de Grace, No Such Word, Unrivaled Belle
http://www.drf.com/news/harmonius-heading-back-turf-santa-ana
Guys it doesnt get any better than that.

Well, your dream was certainly better than what we got.


1. Absinthe Minded, Terry Thompson, 112 pounds
2. Miss Match, Garrett Gomez, 116
3. Havre de Grace, Ramon Dominguez, 119
4. Belle Watling, Hector Berrios, 114
5. Switch, Joel Rosario, 119

[cj]

Well, your dream was certainly better than what we got.


1. Absinthe Minded, Terry Thompson, 112 pounds
2. Miss Match, Garrett Gomez, 116
3. Havre de Grace, Ramon Dominguez, 119
4. Belle Watling, Hector Berrios, 114
5. Switch, Joel Rosario, 119

What happened to Blind Luck?

[castaway01]

What happened to Blind Luck?

DRF, ARCADIA, Calif. – Blind Luck, the champion 3-year-old filly of 2010, will skip Friday’s $500,000 Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park in favor of the $300,000 La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 6, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said on Monday.

“It’s a big purse and all that,” Hollendorfer said of the Apple Blossom, “but I think the Churchill Downs stretch is better for her to close from off the pace.”

[cj]

DRF, ARCADIA, Calif. – Blind Luck, the champion 3-year-old filly of 2010, will skip Friday’s $500,000 Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park in favor of the $300,000 La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 6, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said on Monday.

“It’s a big purse and all that,” Hollendorfer said of the Apple Blossom, “but I think the Churchill Downs stretch is better for her to close from off the pace.”

It is not a good sign when an alleged champion goes looking for races with less prestige, not that she has shown many positives this year.

[Stillriledup]

Havre de Grace supposedly has a very fast 'sheet' number, maybe that means she's the best mare in the country. If true, maybe its a good idea to avoid that horse.

[cj]

Havre de Grace supposedly has a very fast 'sheet' number, maybe that means she's the best mare in the country. If true, maybe its a good idea to avoid that horse.

That is very sporting!

[Dahoss9698]

It is not a good sign when an alleged champion goes looking for races with less prestige, not that she has shown many positives this year.

I'm just speculating, but it doesn't sound like she is 100% or close to it. Why couldn't she run in both races if she was fine?

[JustRalph]

an interesting tweet or two about Havre de Grace

Havre de Grace insane this a.m. Observer "greatest workout I've ever seen." Notes to come from


OaklawnRacing OaklawnRacing&Gaming
Havre de Grace was amazing this a.m. in her work. #AppleBlossom here she comes. The Factor worked out west. He... http://fb.me/VqpLdTKe

http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/215397_10150148648773262_332018038261_6502850_4873 891_n.jpg

[classhandicapper]

It's a big disappointment that Blind Luck is avoiding the race.

I'm a little surprised. Obviously, Blind Luck has been disappointing so far this year, but she looked a little better in her last race. It seemed she might be rounding back into her best form.

If they are serious about trying to win another Eclipse, she's going to have to face and beat Havre de Grace eventually because the latter has the clear upper hand right now by beating her and not having other losses.

I read she's going to stay in CA after that and run at Hollywood on synthetic. That made me laugh because last year they were considering running against Zenyatta in one of those summer races and shipped across country to avoid her. Now they are staying on synthetic to avoid Havre de Grace even though she is "supposedly" much better on dirt (something I never believed to begin with).