Looking For Help Handicapping Closers

[mflood23]

I handicap mainly by pace. I have lost a lot of bets due to closers, that I didn't think looked very good, getting up into 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place. Does anyone have any tips or techniques to rate these horses for their chances at today's race? Thanks for your help.

[thaskalos]

An entire book could be written on this subject. :)

[mistergee]

I handicap mainly by pace. I have lost a lot of bets due to closers, that I didn't think looked very good, getting up into 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place. Does anyone have any tips or techniques to rate these horses for their chances at today's race? Thanks for your help.
there is a thread in this group titled extreme pace by examples, i would take alook at that

[Ocala Mike]

What thaskalaos said. If you want to keep it simple, however, I would look at "turn times" and final quarter times in coming up with, presumably, horses you are looking for to fill the "underneath" spots in vertical wagers.


Ocala Mike

[harness2008]

You may find some clues within the race flow of previous races.

For example, a horse that laid off of a slow early pace and closed well into a fast final fraction as opposed to one that merely laid off of a fast early pace and closed into a slow final fraction. These horses are always faster than the final time recorded. This holds true for both harness and thoroughbreds. The key is knowing how much faster.

[bob60566]

My thoughts
Use the horses best race at the second call behind the leader so if can he duplicate that in this race today.
Mac:)

[Robert Fischer]

I look at the horse he ran down and who else closed with him.

[eastie]

last 1/4 mile time is big..or in 1 1/16 races the last 5/16's

[Robert Goren]

First rule of betting closers on the dirt. Don't take a short price. There is no quicker path to the soup kitchen line.

[JustRalph]

race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape

there I am done......... learn it.

[MNslappy]

this PDF has some basic, but useful info in it

[Nitro]

race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape race shape

there I am done......... learn it.“Race Shape” is all well and good on an unbiased racing surface. However, if you can’t comprehend or allow for how the actual conditions of the race will affect its outcome, or know how the track variant might have an effect before the race you’re betting, then obviously you’ll be throwing your money to the wind on “Closers”, particularly in Sprints. This BTW also applies to playing those with lots of early speed.

Of course you’re also assuming that no matter what their running style might be, that they’re in the best of shape and actually trying to win. Unfortunately the PP’s (and any software using them) won't provide that information, but there is a resource that does! Thank goodness for that!

[Coleman]

I handicap mainly by pace. I have lost a lot of bets due to closers, that I didn't think looked very good, getting up into 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place. Does anyone have any tips or techniques to rate these horses for their chances at today's race? Thanks for your help.

Some of those bets you have lost to closers, and others you have lost to pace horses collapsing. It is useful to have a sense--and I only mention this because you admittedly focus on the early fractions--what a good final fraction is at the tracks you handicap. Because there is nothing worse than betting on a closer who won last out with mediocre final fractions in a race where the pace blew up. I've done it enough to learn.

[Coleman]

The other advice I can offer from personal experience--don't forget the obvious. One of the caveats of becoming more sophisticated in your handicapping is you can actually be too involved to remember stuff that was once obvious. A race with 7 early pace types and one closer can be wasted calculating which of the pace types are really the fastest; similarly in races where early pace seems less advantageous (1 1/8 mile routes, turf races) lone speed types are often overlooked.

Which you already knew, but this is my point--sometimes you forget what you already know.

[Dave Schwartz]

The world handicaps "early" and this is often a mistake. Think of it this way - the average price for all winners is around $13.00. If you are cashing mostly on early horses, you will get a lot of $6-$8 winners. While the late side averages more like $22.

This is because most people do not understand how to handicap late.

My NewPace handicapping approach addresses exactly this. It points to many horses that are usually not getable.

What percentage of YOUR winners come in early?

Here is a link to a short explanation and a couple of videos from the NewPace video seminar (also known as Early or Late: Unlocking the Mystery of Pace).

http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/2011/pace-handicapping-newpace/

[maddog42]

Check out my post on PPF Pars and Handicapping Magic. I gave the route pars away on this board a month ago for free. I never sent out the sprint Pars as I promised. (Many people seemed unappreciative and I LIED!!) I am through giving away these Pars when I have to answer about a 150 emails and people complain because they couldn't hit an 8/5 favorite.

[JohnGalt1]

I handicap mainly by pace. I have lost a lot of bets due to closers, that I didn't think looked very good, getting up into 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place. Does anyone have any tips or techniques to rate these horses for their chances at today's race? Thanks for your help.

You are right how most closers run. Look at a great horse like Strike the Gold's lifetime pp's and see how many thirds he racked up. Handicappers who used the final times of his races--some better than rivals--and bet him to win watched him weave and rally through a pack of horses only to finish a hard charging third.

William L. Scott in his book "Total Victory at the Track" handled closers by down grading the final fraction based on how many lengths gained in the stretch.

His chart he credited 3 3/4 lengths gained as stated then made more drastic adjusments. 3 3/4 to 4 3/4 3 lengths gained 3, 5-6 1/4 4 , 6 1/2-7 1/4 gained 5 and topping out at 6 lengths gained.

He reasoned that that it is more difficult to estimate lengths behind due to traffic. And is it really gaining or just passing tiring horses if coming from many lengths back.

I buy is arguments, but not his chart. I made my own.

What I do is 1-1/34 is one through 5-6 3/4 is five lengths. Then I go 2 for one. 7-8 3/4 is 6 to 13-14 3/4 is 9. 15 and up is 10. If a horse gains 20 lengths in the stretch he gets credited for 10.

I use Hambleton pace figures.

Example of what I do.

Two horses out of the same race-- 46.0 1:10

Horse A was 2 lengths behind at the second call and finshed two lengths behind the winner.

Horse B was 12 lengths back at the second call and finished 2 lengths behind the winner.

Raw pace--A 88 85 = 173
B 78 95 = 173

The way I adjust B -- 78 92 = 170

Unless the track favored closers, or B's class was superior to A, I would play A even though their final times were the same.

I hope this gives you some ideas.

[Dave Schwartz]

All this week I have been in KY with the guys at HDW. While I was there I handicapped an old day of races - about 77 races, as I recall. On this particular day there were 16 horses that paid 8/1 or higher. I had 12 of them.

I missed a $143 horse but had 3 over $40 - one paid $70+.

The punch line? I never used a single pace rating... not an early rating, no late ratings. It was all running style.

The key to picking the late horse is to start with the right pool of who will be late. The easy definition is they are the ones who won't be early.


Sounds simplistic because it is.

[RaceBookJoe]

All this week I have been in KY with the guys at HDW. While I was there I handicapped an old day of races - about 77 races, as I recall. On this particular day there were 16 horses that paid 8/1 or higher. I had 12 of them.

I missed a $143 horse but had 3 over $40 - one paid $70+.

The punch line? I never used a single pace rating... not an early rating, no late ratings. It was all running style.

The key to picking the late horse is to start with the right pool of who will be late. The easy definition is they are the ones who won't be early.


Sounds simplistic because it is.

Once you do that, then you have to eliminate the " LBTL "...the late-but-too-late horses. PS : Dave, I am loving your ideas by the way, great job. rbj

[Valuist]

Start reading the charts. Equibase now does them the "correct" way so you don't have to add up all the beaten lengths for each horse at each call. The best closes aren't the ones where the announcer and crowd are going crazy. Those are usually where a race falls apart and the closers inherit the win. Horses that gain ground into slow early/fast late are worth following. Or "lone" closers in a race (i.e. speed horses finish 1st 3rd and 4th but the runnerup comes from 8 back).

[fmolf]

Start reading the charts. Equibase now does them the "correct" way so you don't have to add up all the beaten lengths for each horse at each call. The best closes aren't the ones where the announcer and crowd are going crazy. Those are usually where a race falls apart and the closers inherit the win. Horses that gain ground into slow early/fast late are worth following. Or "lone" closers in a race (i.e. speed horses finish 1st 3rd and 4th but the runnerup comes from 8 back).
closers generally need to be in top form to get the win...the way i like to handle them is to catch horses on their way to the peak of their form cycle and use them underneath in the exactas.Once a closer in the race is at peak form, if their is enough early speed entered,I will bet closers to win only if odds on said closer are what i believe to be "generous"...or overlayed.

[thaskalos]

You are right how most closers run. Look at a great horse like Strike the Gold's lifetime pp's and see how many thirds he racked up. Handicappers who used the final times of his races--some better than rivals--and bet him to win watched him weave and rally through a pack of horses only to finish a hard charging third.

William L. Scott in his book "Total Victory at the Track" handled closers by down grading the final fraction based on how many lengths gained in the stretch.

His chart he credited 3 3/4 lengths gained as stated then made more drastic adjusments. 3 3/4 to 4 3/4 3 lengths gained 3, 5-6 1/4 4 , 6 1/2-7 1/4 gained 5 and topping out at 6 lengths gained.

He reasoned that that it is more difficult to estimate lengths behind due to traffic. And is it really gaining or just passing tiring horses if coming from many lengths back.

I buy is arguments, but not his chart. I made my own.

What I do is 1-1/34 is one through 5-6 3/4 is five lengths. Then I go 2 for one. 7-8 3/4 is 6 to 13-14 3/4 is 9. 15 and up is 10. If a horse gains 20 lengths in the stretch he gets credited for 10.

I use Hambleton pace figures.

Example of what I do.

Two horses out of the same race-- 46.0 1:10

Horse A was 2 lengths behind at the second call and finshed two lengths behind the winner.

Horse B was 12 lengths back at the second call and finished 2 lengths behind the winner.

Raw pace--A 88 85 = 173
B 78 95 = 173

The way I adjust B -- 78 92 = 170

Unless the track favored closers, or B's class was superior to A, I would play A even though their final times were the same.

I hope this gives you some ideas.Here is my thought on the subject:

A front runner's early speed is measured by rating his velocity at the half mile call, after 4 furlongs of running...so why should the stretch runner's closing speed be measured solely by the last quarter, which only represents 2 furlongs of running?

In a six furlong sprint, the stretch runners should be rated by the way they performed during the last 4 furlongs of the race.

As an example, we could set a par of 100 for a 45-sec. half mile...and also a par of 100 for a 47-sec. last-half mile. (These times are only an example...we all know that there can be a great deal of difference between race tracks.)

By measuring the stretch runners this way, not only are we able to better compare the bursts of speed of both the front runners and the stretch runners...we are also penalizing those stretch runners who are incapable of making an "earlier" move, during the middle fraction of a sprint.

[mflood23]

Thanks guys! There are some great comments here. Very helpful.

[teddy]

All this week I have been in KY with the guys at HDW. While I was there I handicapped an old day of races - about 77 races, as I recall. On this particular day there were 16 horses that paid 8/1 or higher. I had 12 of them.

I missed a $143 horse but had 3 over $40 - one paid $70+.

The punch line? I never used a single pace rating... not an early rating, no late ratings. It was all running style.

The key to picking the late horse is to start with the right pool of who will be late. The easy definition is they are the ones who won't be early.


Sounds simplistic because it is.



I cant wait to see you do that with real money...since you are quoting this success on here. I suspect it will be replicatable. I have a friend that has sent me at least 12 unbeatable systems... as soon as real money is applied they always flop... 99% succes turns into ... I cant understand what went wrong.

[teddy]

Start reading the charts. Equibase now does them the "correct" way so you don't have to add up all the beaten lengths for each horse at each call. The best closes aren't the ones where the announcer and crowd are going crazy. Those are usually where a race falls apart and the closers inherit the win. Horses that gain ground into slow early/fast late are worth following. Or "lone" closers in a race (i.e. speed horses finish 1st 3rd and 4th but the runnerup comes from 8 back).


Ironically there is usually a horse with a low beyer in a race full of closers. The beyer is so low they get overlooked. I have tossed them to see them still win. U really cant p ick them u just have to have faith they will come running.

[lamboguy]

I cant wait to see you do that with real money...since you are quoting this success on here. I suspect it will be replicatable. I have a friend that has sent me at least 12 unbeatable systems... as soon as real money is applied they always flop... 99% succes turns into ... I cant understand what went wrong.
the guy is good, but you need to be pretty smart and willing to do the work.

on a sidenote, that was a questionable takedown last night at charlietown.

[mistergee]

you mean the 3-5 shot they took down, didnt he cross in front of that horse in the stretch? thats what it looked like watching the head on

[teddy]

the guy is good, but you need to be pretty smart and willing to do the work.

on a sidenote, that was a questionable takedown last night at charlietown.
I didnt watch... im guessin he was early money..