Can you survive the losing streak?

[windoor]

This is continuation of the thread in the Library. (Handicap writer) If a mod would like to combine them with this, it might prove helpful for those that are interested in the discussion.

The Losing Streak, Can you survive?

No matter what you are doing, it is inevitable that you will experience a losing streak sooner or later. I had one of my worst ones in December of 2010. (I have a nice one going as I type thisJ) I played 28 races and placed 38 wagers and did not cash one ticket. Many ran second and most were on the board, but none won the race. I play to win only. I can just imagine the ridicule I would suffer if I were trying to show someone how successful I’ve been, or posting picks at this point in time.

This is a real confidence buster and makes it very difficult to continue placing wagers on the same type of horses that has been draining you bankroll.

Looking back on 2010, I had two losing months and two months that under performed.Yet I still managed a 28% hit rate at a whopping 7 to 1 average odd on my win bets for the year. Did I mention the need for patience, discipline, and the proper bank size?

These mostly came in the spring months and past records show that I always struggle here, and usually do very well in the fall months. A little perplexing.

I believe it has something to do with shippers leaving and coming back, and the age of the horse. A young 4 year old in the spring is not the same as a 4.5 year old in the fall, or so my data is telling me. It needs much more analyzing, and time is always short for me.

I chop the year up into quarters and am never concerned over a losing week. Losing days are a given, just don’t make them any worse then they need to be. This is huge problem for most of you, especially if there is a betting window near by. No one wants to be a loser and walk out of the track with less money than going in. Many try to get even, or turn a profit by over playing the last couple of races, even if they intended to pass the upcoming races to begin with. This is probably the single most common mistake a player can make. Losing days can and will happen, learn to accept it. A losing month will have me investigate the plays to make sure I didn’t make too many mistakes. When this happens it usually means I strayed from my rules.

A losing quarter in not acceptable and will bring everything to a grinding halt until I solve the problem. Fortunately I have not experienced this yet over the last 18 months. This was when I finally made the decision to play more than one horse to win when called for. That and a couple of more tweaks to what I was doing using the “Seven”.

One of the nice things about the way I handicap is the huge odd I can sometimes get. This goes along way to recovering from a long losing streak. A nice 41 to 1 shot after that horrible losing streak made everything all right. I’m always just one race away from wiping out an extended losing period. Speed and Pace handicappers are usually at a disadvantage here, as it is a proven method for picking winners. Unfortunately there are many smart people out there that use these numbers and that helps to drive down the odds. I have recently seen a “spot” play from Raybo that would contradict this assumption, so take it for what it’s worth.

I’m mostly a spot play/angle play type of player. This allows for some very nice odds over the long term. I averaged a whopping 7 to 1 over the last eighteen months and still maintained a 28% hit per wager over the period. (I often play more than one horse to win when called for) I have been as high as 47% win per race played, during an especially good quarter in 2009. Of course it didn’t last, but it does go to show how well you can do when things are clicking for you.

Regards,

Windoor

[Robert Fischer]

inspirational post Windoor

i went through a losing streak

with me it was a overconfidence issue

started feeling like superman after 5 or 6 big plays in a weekend

and then started playing wild and losing like 2 in a row.

i'm split between the LOGICAL mathematical stance that there are no "hot hands" and streaks are probability ruled...

VS.

the Illogical idea that you can "walk away" while you are winning

if you feel your concentration slip than i sit that one out.
go out and take my mind off waking up at 1230am thinking about uncle mo's conformation and if he strides in on the head on ...

so at that time i treat myself for a day or two

and then i get hungry again and can't stay away. I don't come back unless i have a obvious standout 60% hammer
or
maybe i happen to see that the 6/1 first time starter next race is FAVORED H7EAVY in the daily doubles pool, so the next race i take the easy money from whatever pools the guys sneaking in the FTS didn't exploit.

something high% or workman-like to get my concentration sharp again.

i cant accept the long losing streaks
they happen

they test you.

[appistappis]

I doubt that it is something that can be quantified.....winning streaks happen, losing streaks happen. If they didn't then we would all be 100% winners or 100% losers.

I was on fire from mid nov to just past xmas and then went a month without a cash. Then hit two tri's back to back within 5 min at FG and PARX, one for 1900 and the other for 900.

[acorn54]

i don't have the stomach for long losing streaks of say forty consecutive losers or so
the angle i use gets me a thirty percent hit rate so losing streaks are held to about fifteen consecutive losers.
i break up the year into quarters also and some quarters i have breakeven at best which includes the rebate. nature of the beast. just like financial markets there are losing periods and winning periods, ebb and flow of life i guess.

[xfile]

Many players do not use any form of Bankroll Management and because of this blow out their bankroll during a losing streak. And it is always the NEXT bet that would have cashed big for them. If a player bets 1% of bank per race it is pretty safe. And obviously wager only on races where the player has an advantage over the odds. Losing streaks and winning streaks are part of the game however the trick is in the management of funds and strict adherence to such.

[windoor]

Robert,

Thanks for the kind words.

I have made just about every mistake a player can make at one time or another.

Looking back, it was a good thing, because making mistakes is a good way to learn, especially if it causes pain, either emotionally or physically. Pain is a good teacher.

It’s when you make the same mistake twice that you have to stop what your doing and take a good long look at yourself. I read the definitions of Patience and Discipline I posted on the other thread on a weekly basis. It’s almost a prayer to me, as I know I will become a better (more successful) person if I can follow it.

XFile,

I can’t tell you how many times I have had this happen to me after the bank went bust.

Following the races on paper after the bank is gone, only to see it turn around with some nice odd horses that I now couldn’t play because there was no money left in the racing bank. Thinking to myself, if only I didn’t play those races that really didn’t qualify as a play, or lay down the large wager for that Trifecta I though was in the bag.

Patience and Discipline are hard lessons to learn, but all so necessary in our game.

Regards,

Windoor.

[Light]

in the spring months and past records show that I always struggle here, and usually do very well in the fall months. A little perplexing.



A couple of possible reasons. The main reason we go hot or cold is not the races we play because we are free to chose from every track in America and play our strengths on the internet. It is our mental state. If you got a lot on your mind or are just too busy to devote the time,your chances are slim. You're basically in lottery mode. If you are relaxed,have the time and are "seeing" the races,your chances are good. Then again there are times when I am feeling good,have the time,but just don't "see".

The spring/fall problems are possibly due to the newly turned 3 and 4yo's in spring racing either out of their age bracket or improving or declining in form at a greater variance than older more established horses. By the fall that form swing due to maturation has diminished considerably.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Simplify things.Don't be so concerned with the act of betting or handicapping horses.Handicap yourself.Handicap the situation.Handicap the conditions under which the race will be run.

There are conditions of a race.What conditions do you beat more than others?

You cant evaluate horses at the beginning or meets?Go to Equibase's historical charts and look at all the shippers coming in from the last meet.Look at the class levels of the shipping tracks.Look at trainers who succeed early in the meet.

How is the track playing?How were the shipping tracks playing?Even looking at a few weeks of charts from the big shipping tracks can answer you this.

How is the race going to be playing out?How in tune are you to being thorough about probable pace?Because that is basically the race itself,along with track profile.

What are you looking at in horses?Do you look at it's history as a storyline,from bottom to top?Do you look at it's basic abilities and running style(s) where it succeeds?

How do your 1st 2nd and 3rd selections win over a year?Is it 64% for the first 2 and 76% for all 3?Because if the numbers are way off from the norm it's just a random distribution of bad events.

I've been on hellacious win streaks and hellacious losing streaks too.And I'm realizing that most of what I did to fail was either simply abnormal negatives or having too narrow of a focus.I think what you are going through is relatively normal.It sounds like you are off by small margins and you said something that I think is totally smart and needs to be repeated,you are 1 race away from trampling this losing streak.Good luck bro:ThmbUp:

[curious]

Windoor,
I place all the horses that I bet on, X to win, 2X to place, and 4X to show. Someone who I trust told me to do it that way in 2007 when I first started betting horses. He has been doing this a long time.

This works well for me. Some days you kick yourself for betting any show bets, other days you kick yourself for betting anything to win.

I have never calculated each position with the question "what if I only made this bet?", so maybe I am off somehow, but I do know that I am + money since 2007 and you could not find a bigger novice than me.

I'm not trying to tell you what to do but I am just saying that this works well for me.

Curious

[thaskalos]

We all curse the losing streaks...but they play a key role in our journey to mastering this game.

How else are we to develop the virtues of patience, discipline and courage...which are so necessary to our advancement as players?

The calm sea has never produced a single competent sailor; it is the RESTLESS sea which presents the ultimate test...

[CincyHorseplayer]

We all curse the losing streaks...but they play a key role in our journey to mastering this game.

How else are we to develop the virtues of patience, discipline and courage...which are so necessary to our advancement as players?

The calm sea has never produced a single competent sailor; it is the RESTLESS sea which presents the ultimate test...

I hear that.Good Post.I am far from "there" yet.But finding more consistency.

[windoor]

Windoor,
I place all the horses that I bet on, X to win, 2X to place, and 4X to show. Someone who I trust told me to do it that way in 2007 when I first started betting horses. He has been doing this a long time.

This works well for me. Some days you kick yourself for betting any show bets, other days you kick yourself for betting anything to win.

I have never calculated each position with the question "what if I only made this bet?", so maybe I am off somehow, but I do know that I am + money since 2007 and you could not find a bigger novice than me.

I'm not trying to tell you what to do but I am just saying that this works well for me.

Curious

I used this exact same betting strategy some years ago. What I found was that the place bet was profitable, but the show bet was not, over time.

If I took the amount of money wagered per race and put it all on the win bet, the bottom line was always much better.

I had a 30 to 1 shot recently that got nipped at the wire while paying $26.00 to place. Ouch!! The place bet does smooth out the losing streaks and for that reason alone, it's not a bad idea. Helps to keep you sane.

Regards,

Windoor

[windoor]

Simplify things.Don't be so concerned with the act of betting or handicapping horses.Handicap yourself.Handicap the situation.Handicap the conditions under which the race will be run.

There are conditions of a race.What conditions do you beat more than others?

You cant evaluate horses at the beginning or meets?Go to Equibase's historical charts and look at all the shippers coming in from the last meet.Look at the class levels of the shipping tracks.Look at trainers who succeed early in the meet.

How is the track playing?How were the shipping tracks playing?Even looking at a few weeks of charts from the big shipping tracks can answer you this.

How is the race going to be playing out?How in tune are you to being thorough about probable pace?Because that is basically the race itself,along with track profile.

What are you looking at in horses?Do you look at it's history as a storyline,from bottom to top?Do you look at it's basic abilities and running style(s) where it succeeds?

How do your 1st 2nd and 3rd selections win over a year?Is it 64% for the first 2 and 76% for all 3?Because if the numbers are way off from the norm it's just a random distribution of bad events.

I've been on hellacious win streaks and hellacious losing streaks too.And I'm realizing that most of what I did to fail was either simply abnormal negatives or having too narrow of a focus.I think what you are going through is relatively normal.It sounds like you are off by small margins and you said something that I think is totally smart and needs to be repeated,you are 1 race away from trampling this losing streak.Good luck bro:ThmbUp:


Many questions Cincy, and all of them good. If I only had the time (or the right software) to get an easy answer. I will explore the shipper tracks and see if I can find something useful there. Thanks for the tip.

As long as my horses are still hitting the board at a good rate, I'll chalk most of it up to bad racing luck. At least I know most of them are trying.

Light:

I'm pretty sure the older 4 year old is not the same horse as in the spring. I will do some more investigating.

Regards

Windoor

[jfdinneen]

Windoor,

In terms of money management, there are only two rules (adapted from Warren Buffett (http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett) ):

Never Lose Bankroll; and
Never Forget Rule No 1.

Mathematically, when you (finite bankroll) are competing against the crowd (opponent with infinite bankroll), you should focus firstly on minimizing the probability of ruin and secondly on bankroll growth. Minimizing the probability of ruin is strongly correlated with reducing the variance of outcomes. This is why your decision to bet more than one horse to win per race paid off.

John

[raybo]

Windoor,

In terms of money management, there are only two rules (adapted from Warren Buffett (http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett) ):

Never Lose Bankroll; and
Never Forget Rule No 1.

Mathematically, when you (finite bankroll) are competing against the crowd (opponent with infinite bankroll), you should focus firstly on minimizing the probability of ruin and secondly on bankroll growth. Minimizing the probability of ruin is strongly correlated with reducing the variance of outcomes. This is why your decision to bet more than one horse to win per race paid off.

John

Ahhh! Warren Buffett, my man!

A living example of PDC, Patience, Discipline, and Consistency. He's one of the few people on the face of this planet for whom I believe every word out of his mouth.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Allright,spinoff time.In the baddest of losing streaks how much of the roll have you eroded??

It's been 40% for me.Painful.Life eroded the bankroll worse though.But 40% on a losing streak that lasted 6 months.