First Time Starters

[karlskorner]

Gordon Pine has some stats on FTS

http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTracts.htm

[CapperLou]

Karl:

I read this article last week and glad you posted it on the board. It has some very interesting stats concerning first timers that should help everyone's ROI!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[andicap]

CAUTION:

Stats were only from October. I would imagine this might be a seasonal factor for some of the stats.
Example: 3 yr olds starting for the first time are almost 4. They should do better in the spring.

[so.cal.fan]

"CAUTION:

Stats were only from October. I would imagine this might be a seasonal factor for some of the stats.
Example: 3 yr olds starting for the first time are almost 4. They should do better in the spring".



I agree here, Andy.........three year old first time starter maidens running at the big Santa Anita meet in January, Feb. and March are usually very different types of animals than the ones making their first starts in Oct. Nov. or Dec. At least here in So. Cal they are.

[Fastracehorse]

I believe that it is difficult for handicappers to think of firsters as strong contenders. Unless there are alot 0's by the sale sign and popular connections.

But the fact is, firsters are very dangerous. And the expensive ones may not be any more dangerous than inexpensive ones, at least in terms of IV.

Positives from Pine:

1) First-Time Starters in an Outside Post Position: In an unexpected result, firsters starting in post positions 10 through 12 generated a 1.83 ROI and a 2.23 True Impact from a sample of 64 horses.

2) First-Time Starters with the Highest Percentage Jockey Over the Last 30 Days: A good jock on a FTS is a good sign. Even though the odds went down, this group of 70 horses had a 1.23 ROI and a 1.50 True Impact.

About 1) - 2 things: a) Many young horses will not race on the rail while pressed. b) Alot of also eligible horses that draw in are dangerous, and they make up alot of outside PP's. Being on the AE list is often a signal of trainer intent.

About 2): It doesn't have to be the highest % jock - just a very good jock.

fffastt

[CapperLou]

Fastracehorse:

A very good post by you pointing out a few very significant factors.

It's so true--when you see a top rider on a FTS and the horse is well bred or cost a bunch as a yearling or shows a pattern of good works---LOOK OUT---especially if that horse is on the OUTSIDE---not the rail!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. And, make sure you have value when you see above.

[Fastracehorse]

Thrown in a few extra firsters in your pick-3's or doubles and you may get some nice hits - if you don't you may waste some nice tickets.

fffastt

[cj]

Originally posted by CapperLou
... It's so true--when you see a top rider on a FTS and the horse is well bred or cost a bunch as a yearling or shows a pattern of good works---LOOK OUT---especially if that horse is on the OUTSIDE---not the rail!!!...

...P.S. And, make sure you have value when you see above.

One thing I'd disagree with...if you have a well bred guy or a bunch of zeroes and he's being ridden by a top jock, value is a bad sign. Very rare indeed is the horse fitting the above description that pays a good price. Give me the poorly bred or cheap horse being ridden by a top guy anytime over that one.

[so.cal.fan]

One positive or negative angle on first time starters at Santa Anita or Del Mar is the morning line.
Jeff Tufts makes a damn good morning line on maiden first time starters......he is a clocker and unless the horse is stabled off track.......he is about 90% accurate in assigning either low or high odds to a first time starter. If they are under 8/1.....you have to believe they can run. If they are over.........they probably aren't ready to win or can't run.
Jeff is a very sharp guy, studies all the tapes of all the races and is out clocking every morning at Santa Anita.
Most people I know respect his opinion.
The guy who clocks at Hollywood Park is also a good clocker, so it is probably a good angle there as well.

[CapperLou]

CJ:

I should have clarified my statement. I do not play ANYTHING unless I get value--in some situations value can be 5-2 or more, but in most of my plays I look for 4-1 or better.

I simply PASS the race when there is one such as you mention!
Yes, I PASS a lot of winners--but I have learned that the only way I can show a good ROI is to be patient and get my picks that have value!! Without it---I and everyone else playing this game cannot beat the takeout--as Gordon Pine says so often--it's all about the takeout, the takeout!! I know he's right on that one.

All the best,

CapperLou

[Fastracehorse]

<Give me the poorly bred or cheap horse being ridden by a top guy anytime over that one.

That's actually what I said too if you read back.

I hit this Maiden horse at Arlington a few weeks back. It paid $40 and some guy was calling me a guesser. He told me I couldn't validate why I bet it - especially since there was an expensive favorite with bullets in the race.

I said, "Yah, I wish I was a smart as you and then I wouldn't have to guess."

fffastt


:eek: :cool: :rolleyes: :cool: :rolleyes: :eek:

[Fastracehorse]

There was a $40 winner today and your morning line guy didn't pick it - but 2 people on the DRF pypc ( post your picks contest )forum picked it.

Maybe 90 % was a slightttttttttttt exagerration.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

fffastt

[CapperLou]

Fastracehorse:

No bragging here--but I played the $41.80 winner at SA today in the 6th race. Bench Press was the only FTS in the race and he was a play for me based on some of the things I do!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[Fastracehorse]

Yah,

Bench press won me first seed in the KOTH contest today on DRF.

Wouldn't say I loved it - but he was my 2nd pick.

fffastt

[so.cal.fan]

Fast:
Okay, perhaps 75% to 80% correct.
Two of my paddock friends bet Bench Press. One guy liked it because it looked the sharpest and best confirmation in the paddock, the other guy liked it because it worked fast FOR AN EDDIE TRUMAN runner. Eddie works horses very slowwwwww.
Jeff missed this guy, but don't start betting against this angle too often.
Actually, the guy who bet this horse off the fast Truman works is the very guy who nearly always swears by Jeff Tufts. as he has watched his maiden lines for years like the rest of us regulars.

[Fastracehorse]

If that.

And that's not an embarrasssment for betting firsters.

fffastt