When alive for big money in Horiz bet, how do you 'save'?

[Stillriledup]

I'll admit, i'm a huge saver guy at the end of a horizontal bet when i'm alive for big money. I know, they say you're supposed to 'ride it out' and whatnut, but its human nature for me, at least, to 'save' on horses i'm scared might beat me in the final leg of a pick 4 or pick 6 when i'm alive for a bunch.

Here's a hypothetical example, i want you (if you would be so kind) to tell me how you would 'save' in this situation.

You're heading into the last leg of a pick 4. Its a 10 horse field, you're alive to 4 horses for 10 grand (would this change if you were alive for 100k in pick 6s) and you're alive to the 6-5 shot for 2,500. The other 5 horses you don't have a penny on. You have the first 5 betting favorites covered, so the 5 horses you don't have are all longshots.

Out of the 5 horses you don't have, you think one of them is someone you're somewhat scared of and the other 4, you don't like at all, so you're not concerned about them beating you.

Or, if you dont want to use my hypothetical example, give me one of your own where you 'saved' a big score and it either hurt you or helped you.

[thaskalos]

If your hypothetical example happened to me, I would not spend one additional dollar as a "saver" bet. Having the best 5 horses out of a possible 10 is as good a "coverage" situation as I could ever expect...and I would let the chips fall where they may.

If you lack my internal fortitude however,:) then I would advise that you "key" the longshot that worries you...on top of your other 5 selections in a trifecta, at the cost of $20 per $1 trifecta bet. It is the most logical way to give yourself a little added protection, at a reasonable cost.

[1GCFAN]

Only was alive once for a big score of $19K. Spent $500 in win bets to cover the shots. As it turns out I didn't need it.
Don't bet horizonal on a regular basis so I felt comfortable. Others who regularly bet horizonal probably wouldn't buy protection.

[HuggingTheRail]

I would tend to agree with thaskalos, and I wouldn't buy a "saver". The only thing that may change my mind is the size of the initial pick 4 investment - if I had sunk $500 in, and that one horse that worried me a bit was 20-1, I may throw down $50 on the nose.

[Stillriledup]

If your hypothetical example happened to me, I would not spend one additional dollar as a "saver" bet. Having the best 5 horses out of a possible 10 is as good a "coverage" situation as I could ever expect...and I would let the chips fall where they may.

If you lack my internal fortitude however,:) then I would advise that you "key" the longshot that worries you...on top of your other 5 selections in a trifecta, at the cost of $20 per $1 trifecta bet. It is the most logical way to give yourself a little added protection, at a reasonable cost.

I guess i should have maybe said pick 6 because in a pick 6 bet, there's a much better chance you can actually not be alive with someone you really liked just because of cost and whatnut.

I think it depends on how i've been doing the last few weeks, how i got to the final leg (how much, etc) and how and why i wasn't alive with a horse that i maybe should have been alive for.

intestinal fortitude aside, what if there was a horse who you didnt have sitting up there at 15-1, and he looked amazing warming up, neck bowed, glistening coat, powerful and looking sharp, would you let that horse just beat you?

I love your idea of the Tri key, what i've personally done in the past is that if i was alive with half the field for huge money, i would take the one horse i was alive with the most money for and take the horse i was scared of and key that horse on top in a big tri key. In other words, horse i'm scared of, over my best outcome, over the other 4 or 5 in the tri. Ten dollar part wheel is 50 bucks. That way, if the horse i'm scared of nails my best outcome on the wire, i get a little relief.

[Xman2]

I think if you add up all the "savers" that you make during the year, regardless of horizontal or vertical, you will find that they haven't "saved you".

[Greyfox]

I would guarantee that I'd make money on the race.
If the fav won I'd get $ 2,500.
Any of the 4 others would get me more.
I'd look at what I paid on my ticket.
I'd look at the longshots.
I'd smack them hard enough that I'd at least be going home with perhaps triple or more of my money.
If I won the Pick 4, I'm fine.
If I hit any of the longshots I'd be fine too.

[JustRalph]

I think Crist covers this in "exotic betting" or whatever his book is called

I re-read parts of it recently and believe he covered it pretty well.

Just a tip

[newtothegame]

Not that I have been in these situations lol....
But, I would think that one mindset would saying your "saving" yourself....
On the other hand, another might think its a throw away bet....

Personally, I would ask myself why would I want to make a wager now....if I wouldnt of made it from the start!
I would think if you handicapped the race and came up with what you thought were the winning combo's, why change it?

Just my opinion though....

[olddaddy]

If you didnt play the longies in the last race because of lack of funds, then you have to cover yourself. But if you didnt like them then, then you dont like them now and you stand pat.

[carlonr]

The name of the game is winning. If one can be in a position where one wins "no matter what" its a no-brainer, especially when the faviorite is paying $2,500 and you have 4 other horses as well. From your description, it sounds like the uncovered horses are long shots, so it would take a relatively small amount of money to play the others to win or an exacta with the others over all.

[CBedo]

Just like taking insurance personally or professionally, it probably does lower your long term single bet profit margin, but by increasing safety margin, possibly increases your long term overall expectation (allowing you to bet larger amounts safely).

For me personally, it depends on the situation. 1) How much money do I have invested, 2) How large are the potential returns relative to my investment, 3) How much will the insurance cost me, 4) How "hard" is the last race that I need to hedge relative to my handicapping skill set (if you are terrible at maiden claimers with first time starters, etc) & 5) How constrained was I in horses I didn't include on the ticket in the last race due to bet sizing?

There have been times, when I didn't hedge at all even though I was singled in the last race, and there have been times when I actually made insurance bets on not just the last leg, but the last two. It all depends.

[Coleman]

The odd thing is I find I almost do the opposite. If I'm alive through four or even three legs of a pick six, I feel like I'm "on" and I start doubling up on my picks by using my picks in rolling pick 3s, doubles, etc. For instance say I'm alive after three legs of a pick six and I have 2/2/4 horses in the last three, I might do a 2/2/4, an all/2/4, a 2/all/4, and a 2/2/all pick three. This way you are still covering horses that aren't in your pick six, but in such a way that you are keying the horses you picked, not the ones you didn't. Because, after all, you've been correct so far, right? But everyone's psychology is different...

[JohnGalt1]

I have NEVER made a saver bet in a pick 4 or pick six where I've won the first 3 or 5 races.

If I've won the first 5 in a pick six, I know I'll at least get a consolation.

I've won 8 pick sixes, and if I've had win bets on horses in the final leg, I've let it ride even though if it wins, the payoff will be paltry compared the what the pick six would likely pay.

I don't see the point in betting money on a horse I don't think will win. If I thought it had a decent chance I would've included it in the bet when I made it.

[GaryG]

I play a lot of P3's and P4's and never take the insurance. However, I am not normally a longshot player, so maybe my situation doesn't count.

[fmolf]

I am not normally a horiz player.I would win bets on uncovered horses in varying amts. to cover the cost of my p4 or p6 bet + a small profit.

[arno]

I would dutch the remaining horses to the smallest payout (2,500).
Would never save just a few horses.
Would always save ALL the remaining horses.
If could not afford the dutch I would not save at all.

[Robert Fischer]

insurance isn't necessarily bad if say you got 2 longshots and then a heavy-fav in the 3rd leg of a pick3...

that way you get a decent pick 3 if the fav wins , and you can get a price if he doesn't.

usually those situations would be more by design than by coincidence

[eastie]

I play a lot of P3's and P4's and never take the insurance. However, I am not normally a longshot player, so maybe my situation doesn't count.


"if they ain't flashin, I ain't cashin"

[Marlin]

Plan in advance. If you don't know how to properly execute a "save". Don't do it! I advise writing down some Pick 3,4,5,6 probable payouts. After the results are in just play around with some "what ifs?". I'm sure many on this board are a ton more technical than this. But I wouldn't just start thinking about "saving" with 10 minutes to post. You might just "save" yourself from a nice score.

[thelyingthief]

lemme see,

they take upwards of 30% of your winnings.

they tax you if the wager pays off in a significant amount.

they tax you again at the end of the year.

and YOU want to add to this seepage by throwing saver money?

MAYBE, just maybe, if it's an enormous pot, I'll save. But rarely.

tlt-

[therussmeister]

Anytime you find an overlay feel free to bet it. Anytime you find an underlay feel compelled to not bet it.