Fountain Of Youth

[redshift1]

The field is starting to take shape for the February 26th race:

To Honor and Serve

Soldat

Gourmet Dinner

Shackleford

Racing Aptitude

Casper's touch

Dialed In ... may pass this prep

[redshift1]

Dialed In out of the FOY, Zito is looking for another prep at Gulfstream in preparation to the Florida Derby. The FOY is coming up tough with To Honor and Serve and Soldat. I think Its a good call.

[Chris G]

I was looking back over recent Fountains of Youth races and was surprised to find that none of the top three finishers have had an impact on the Derby since Thunder Gulch. That goes back a bit.

[redshift1]

Breeders' Cup Juvenile - one winner
Arkansas Derby - four winners
Blue Grass Stakes - 23 winners
Flamingo Stakes - 13 winners
Florida Derby - 21 winners
Fountain of Youth - 12 winners
Illinois Derby - one winner
Gotham Stakes - one winner
Holy Bull Stakes - two winners
Hutcheson Stakes - three winners
Lane's End Stakes - one winner
Lexington Stakes - two winners
Louisiana Derby - three winners
Rebel Stakes - two winners
San Felipe Stakes - 11 winners
Santa Anita Derby - 15 winners
San Vicente Stakes - 9 winners
Sham Stakes - one winner
Southwest Stakes - two winners
Tampa Bay Derby - one winner
Wood Memorial - 20 winners

[Tom]

Thanks for the list.
Blue Grass stats are misleading since they put in crap-track.
Probably not worth mentioning anymore.

[joanied]

Yes...thanks for the list...very interesting stats...and I have to agree with Tom, the Blue Grass ain't nothin' anymore...
guess after this year we can add the Timely Writer to the list :lol:

[redshift1]

Entries are up

Fountain of Youth

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $400,000

1 Soldat A. Garcia

2 Gourmet Dinner R. Dominguez

3 El Grayling R. Maragh

4 Casper's Touch A. Solis

5 Bowman's Causeway J. Leparoux

6 Racing Aptitude J. Lezcano

7 To Honor and Serve J. Velazquez

8 Shackleford J. Castanon

[Reezy]

Must be nice to b johney v

[redshift1]

I have a question, anyone know why Leparoux is riding Bowman's Causeway and not Casper's Touch. Julian usually rides first call for McPeek
and I see Solis is up this weekend.

[Chris G]

I have a question, anyone know why Leparoux is riding Bowman's Causeway and not Casper's Touch. Julian usually rides first call for McPeek
and I see Solis is up this weekend.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61528/to-honor-and-serve-takes-center-stage-in-foy

"Casper’s Touch, from the barn of Ken McPeek, had a nightmare trip when running second to Shackleford, but he was closing hard at the finish despite those problems. Alex Solis picks up the the mount on the Touch Gold (http://www.stallionregister.com/sr_sire_page.asp?refno=1434312&origin=BHonline) (http://www.equineline.com/dotReportProductSelectionDisplay.cfm?horse_name=To uch+Gold&YOB=1994&breed_type=TB&horse_type=I&ASCID=1443262) colt. McPeek said he hopes to give Casper's Touch two chances to make the Kentucky Derby, with the $1 million Florida Derby (gr. I) on April 3 the next target.
El Grayling was beaten a nose by Casper’s Touch after setting the pace. The Mike Maker trainee has already raced eight times with one win to show from his efforts.
Bowman's Causeway (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/bowmans-causeway/2008?source=BHonline) impressed many with his nine-furlong maiden win Feb. 11 at Gulfstream and he will jump right into the deep end against his classier rivals. Trained by Patrick Biancone for Martin Schwartz, Bowman’s Causeway got up late to win by a length in that race, which was his third try at breaking his maiden. Julien Leparoux will ride him for the first time."

[redshift1]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61528/to-honor-and-serve-takes-center-stage-in-foy

"Casper’s Touch, from the barn of Ken McPeek, had a nightmare trip when running second to Shackleford, but he was closing hard at the finish despite those problems. Alex Solis picks up the the mount on the Touch Gold (http://www.stallionregister.com/sr_sire_page.asp?refno=1434312&origin=BHonline) (http://www.equineline.com/dotReportProductSelectionDisplay.cfm?horse_name=To uch+Gold&YOB=1994&breed_type=TB&horse_type=I&ASCID=1443262) colt. McPeek said he hopes to give Casper's Touch two chances to make the Kentucky Derby, with the $1 million Florida Derby (gr. I) on April 3 the next target.
El Grayling was beaten a nose by Casper’s Touch after setting the pace. The Mike Maker trainee has already raced eight times with one win to show from his efforts.
Bowman's Causeway (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/bowmans-causeway/2008?source=BHonline) impressed many with his nine-furlong maiden win Feb. 11 at Gulfstream and he will jump right into the deep end against his classier rivals. Trained by Patrick Biancone for Martin Schwartz, Bowman’s Causeway got up late to win by a length in that race, which was his third try at breaking his maiden. Julien Leparoux will ride him for the first time."


I got the impression McPeek was unhappy with JL's ride but then I read this.

From one of the handicappers at the DRF

Its no small matter Leparoux sees fit to take the call, too; all that being said, that was a maiden win only and now he's facing some of the toughest of his crop so the hurdles are not insignificant.

It may not matter anyway as either horse would need vast improvement
to win on Saturday.

[Chris G]

I'm surprised Solis is considered a step up.

[Striker]

I was looking back over recent Fountains of Youth races and was surprised to find that none of the top three finishers have had an impact on the Derby since Thunder Gulch. That goes back a bit.
Very true, but IMO the last 2 years both FOY winners would have been the favorite for the Derby if they wouldn't have been injured--Quality Road and Eskendereya. Ice Box finished 5th last year in the FOY and then went on to get 2nd in the Derby.

[redshift1]

I'm surprised Solis is considered a step up.


That's my take to, HRTV may have some additional information when they
handicap the weekends races tonight.

[Chris G]

Very true, but IMO the last 2 years both FOY winners would have been the favorite for the Derby if they wouldn't have been injured--Quality Road and Eskendereya. Ice Box finished 5th last year in the FOY and then went on to get 2nd in the Derby.

Good point; and I don't know how I forgot about Ice Box...he was my Derby pick. Thrilling to see him finishing, disappointing to have seen him lose.

[joeyp]

I LIKE TO HONOR AND SERVE TO WIN THIS WITH EITHER SOLDAT OR GOURMET DINNER OR CASPERS TOUCH TO GET 2ND

[Robert Fischer]

20/1 is a little high for the 5

[Chris G]

I got the impression McPeek was unhappy with JL's ride but then I read this.

From one of the handicappers at the DRF

Its no small matter Leparoux sees fit to take the call, too; all that being said, that was a maiden win only and now he's facing some of the toughest of his crop so the hurdles are not insignificant.

It may not matter anyway as either horse would need vast improvement
to win on Saturday.

"This is a big test for him against some very good horses so I want to see what his price is near post time. I want at least 7-1 on him to make a win bet, otherwise he will be an exotics play. Normally, if Leparoux switches mounts it's not a good thing but in this case there is a legitimate reason for Ken McPeek to replace him with Alex Solis. Leparoux is committed to Dialed In and McPeek wants the same rider for this race, the Florida Derby, and hopefully the Kentucky Derby. Solis is riding superbly right now."

from: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2011/02/25/real-derby-trail-starts-with-foy.aspx

[Chris G]

I think this is either won by To Honor and Serve or Soldat. I can see Shackleford getting up for 2nd or 3rd.

I could also see Gourmet Dinner hanging on for 3rd.


Not a race I'll be playing.

[Marlin]

Soldat is extremely sharp right now. I will key him in horizontals.

[redshift1]

I finally settled on To Honor and Serve
Won at 1 1/8
Won off a layoff (first start)
Bullet works
Solid Beyers

Longshot's Shackleford and Bowman's Causeway

To Honor and Serve............. 1-1
Soldat................................9/5
Gourmet Dinner...................4-1
Casper's Touch....................8-1
Shackleford........................12-1
Bowman's Causeway............15-1
El Grayling.........................25-1
Racing Aptitude...................40-1

[MickJ26]

I think it was Biancone who first brought Leparoux to America to ride, I may be mistaken.

[PhantomOnTour]

I think Soldat is an underlay. Way too much hype about how ready this guy is. I will take a shot against him...finished strong after sitting on a moderate to slow pace in the slop. If he attends a fast pace today I believe he will not finish. It's best that he not 'take the race to To Honor & Serve early' as I've heard a few say.
I will try with Shackleford(#8) and Caspers Touch(#4) over and under To Honor & Serve.

[Stillriledup]

Looks like one of those 'big day' biases today, inside speed on the main, be careful betting closers, your heart might hurt at the end of the day if you do.

[Dahoss9698]

Looks like one of those 'big day' biases today, inside speed on the main, be careful betting closers, your heart might hurt at the end of the day if you do.

You're determining this after the FIRST race where the favorite won and a closer ran 2nd?

[Cardus]

You're determining this after the FIRST race where the favorite won and a closer ran 2nd?

Keep this up and the thread will be closed.

[Tom]

20/1 is a little high for the 5

I like the 5 in the exacta.
2 and 7 both have some negatives....this could be big price race.

[DJofSD]

I'm only going to say this once: Racing Aptitude.

[Beachbabe]

I like the 5 in the exacta.
2 and 7 both have some negatives....this could be big price race.


I'm with you on the :5: . Gets giant rider switch after a nice win at the distance

[redshift1]

Leparoux is somewhere near 2/45 in the last week or so at Gulfstream.

[Robert Fischer]

one of the favorites should take this from on the pace.

bowman's causeway has a chance to lump up on the board

gourmet dinner looks like a bit of an underlay

[point given]

Leparoux is somewhere near 2/45 in the last week or so at Gulfstream.

Too true. Wait for the rails to go back on the turf and a fairer main.

[theguarantee]

Keep this up and the thread will be closed.

uhhh why? I thought it was a very fair point.

I'll credit Casino who posted in the selections section that Soldat might crush here. I didn't like To Honor and Serve at all, but ended up on Gourmet Dinner. Soldat definitely made a statement here in my opinion. I was a bit of a doubter but after today I definitely wouldn't dismiss any longer.

[Marlin]

uhhh why? I thought it was a very fair point.

I'll credit Casino who posted in the selections section that Soldat might crush here. I didn't like To Honor and Serve at all, but ended up on Gourmet Dinner. Soldat definitely made a statement here in my opinion. I was a bit of a doubter but after today I definitely wouldn't dismiss any longer.Dismiss now. He can't hold Dialed In's jock. Dialed in is your 2011 Derby winner. I made so much money today. Drinks are on me!!!!!!!!!!!:)

[toussaud]

flashpoint was the best horse to run today at gulfstream.

[Marlin]

flashpoint was the best horse to run today at gulfstream.Thank god I had him 1/3 on my horizantals. He ran huge. I agree 100% with you. I didn't know it before post.

[theguarantee]

Dismiss now. He can't hold Dialed In's jock. Dialed in is your 2011 Derby winner. I made so much money today. Drinks are on me!!!!!!!!!!!:)

BEFORE you see Uncle Mo return???? Haha, congrats on your day. I popped the R Heat Lightning pick-3 a couple times but ultimately didn't have a great day. But at least I didn't lose my ass. Soldat's numbers (idk honestly) might not be great...but I do think was more impressive than that would indicate. I'll defer to the numbers to make a real judgement.

Flashpoint, whose race I missed, popped me out of the pk-4 AND I went 6 deep there...big mistake.

R Heat Lightning, a personal favorite of mine, was also mighty impressive, nice patience on the ride and I never expected her to draw off so convincingly.

[tribecaagent]

Dismiss now. He can't hold Dialed In's jock. Dialed in is your 2011 Derby winner. I made so much money today. Drinks are on me!!!!!!!!!!!:)

Why do you think Nick didn't run here?

I'm a fan of Dialed In but Nick is now saying he will go next in the Timely Writer (one turn mile). If true, Dialed In will have ONE two-turn race (presumably the Florida Derby) prior to the KY Derby. How can this horse have the lung capacity to run a mile and a quarter?

I just don't get it.

[theguarantee]

^It's a valid question though I don't know what it ultimately says about the horses capability of getting the Derby 1/4...Ducking isn't necessarily an indication of some sort of lack of talent.

With that said I'll be betting against Dialed In at two turns whenever we see it.

[Marlin]

BEFORE you see Uncle Mo return???? Haha, congrats on your day. I popped the R Heat Lightning pick-3 a couple times but ultimately didn't have a great day. But at least I didn't lose my ass. Soldat's numbers (idk honestly) might not be great...but I do think was more impressive than that would indicate. I'll defer to the numbers to make a real judgement.

Flashpoint, whose race I missed, popped me out of the pk-4 AND I went 6 deep there...big mistake.

R Heat Lightning, a personal favorite of mine, was also mighty impressive, nice patience on the ride and I never expected her to draw off so convincingly.I used 2. Only because the one I liked scratched. I had bet RHL in the BC off her recent works. I saw todays recent works and thought payback. I really got lucky because of the scratch.

[Marlin]

Why do you think Nick didn't run here?

I'm a fan of Dialed In but Nick is now saying he will go next in the Timely Writer (one turn mile). If true, Dialed In will have ONE two-turn race (presumably the Florida Derby) prior to the KY Derby. How can this horse have the lung capacity to run a mile and a quarter?

I just don't get it.I know Nick was behind to start. The Timely Writer was originally planned for him. The distance was to be two turns. Todd brought up Uncle Mo and everything changed.

[tribecaagent]

^It's a valid question though I don't know what it ultimately says about the horses capability of getting the Derby 1/4...Ducking isn't necessarily an indication of some sort of lack of talent.

With that said I'll be betting against Dialed In at two turns whenever we see it.

Okay, well let me ask you this. Do you believe that a horse "turning back" in distance has a fitness edge over his/hers rivals?

[theguarantee]

^I do.

[tribecaagent]

I know Nick was behind to start. The Timely Writer was originally planned for him. The distance was to be two turns. Todd brought up Uncle Mo and everything changed.

Okay fine. Let's say you're Nick. If you originally planned to run Dialed In going two turns and it was now ONE, and your horse is no more than 6-1 for a 400k purse, wouldn't you take you shot at a grade II for 400k?

I know what I would do.

[Marlin]

Okay fine. Let's say you're Nick. If you originally planned to run Dialed In going two turns and it was now ONE, and your horse is no more than 6-1 for a 400k purse, wouldn't you take you shot at a grade II for 400k?

I know what I would do.No. The only race I care about is the first Saturday in May.

[tribecaagent]

^I do.

This is the antithesis.

A racehorse builds up their stamina/lung-capacity by running a distance of ground.

I'm not saying Dialed In can't run a mile and a quarter off ONE mile and an eighth race, nor am I second guessing Nick's tactics. However, Nick and Mr. LaPenta love to run on the first Saturday in May. What is the easiest way to get there? Let's face it, they don't have another prospect.
Perhaps there is an undermining issue we're not hip to? Perhaps they know Dialed In is a late-running sprinter?

I just can't put a positive spin on it.

[tribecaagent]

No. The only race I care about is the first Saturday in May.

What do you mean no?

Nick originally planned on running two turns in the Timely Writer for 100k and a non-grade.
Now, the race is 400k and a Grade II. And his horse is no more than 6-1.

[Marlin]

What do you mean no?

Nick originally planned on running two turns in the Timely Writer for 100k and a non-grade.
Now, the race is 400k and a Grade II. And his horse is no more than 6-1.It's all about spacing. The FOY was too soon. And forget about 6-1. If Dialed In goes he is no more than 2-1. Look for him in the Gotham or the TB Derby. Or perhaps he stays home for the Timely Writer. If he waits until the Florida Derby fine. Nick has forgotten more about racing than I'll ever know. If Dialed In is in the gate for the Derby he wins. Final answer!:)

[MickJ26]

To Honor and Serve clearly looked like a horse coming in off a layoff. He stalked an average pace and came up empty. His next race will be better and the Derby will be his third off the layoff. Soldat had his breakthrough performace.

[toussaud]

To Honor and Serve clearly looked like a horse coming in off a layoff. He stalked an average pace and came up empty. His next race will be better and the Derby will be his third off the layoff. Soldat had his breakthrough performace.What he will make up in fitness, he will lose when the horses aren't walking around the track like they were in the FOY. Horses like flashpoint, crossbow and travelin man, if that is his next step, i assure you, aren't having any part of 24/48/1:13 splits, which is what he got today, yet still could not make a move. the horse is a bum. This is no longer the minor leagues (aqueduct winter) when he was by deflation the front running closer of every race he ran in.

[MickJ26]

What he will make up in fitness, he will lose when the horses aren't walking around the track like they were in the FOY. Horses like flashpoint, crossbow and travelin man, if that is his next step, i assure you, aren't having any part of 24/48/1:13 splits, which is what he got today, yet still could not make a move. the horse is a bum. This is no longer the minor leagues (aqueduct winter) when he was by deflation the front running closer of every race he ran in.


You may be right, Toussaud. I do disagree with your assessment that his horse is a bum. His wins at Aqueduct were in the fall, not winter, which is a big difference. Two months from now he won't be at the mercy of a slow pace.

[Marlin]

Wow! I acted like it was the first time I won. LOL:) Bill Mott is too good of trainer. His numbers have never been strong off the lay off. To Honor And Serve should move up and does deserve another shot. ARGH just the word shot makes me queezy.:)

[toussaud]

this horse isn't any different than buddy's saint or court vision before him. IF he turns out to be another court vision that's not a bad thing at all, horse can run, he's just not a handicap division top caliber horse. Maybe bum was overstating it, but he's not a legit threat in a triple crown race IMHO

[MickJ26]

this horse isn't any different than buddy's saint or court vision before him. IF he turns out to be another court vision that's not a bad thing at all, horse can run, he's just not a handicap division top caliber horse. Maybe bum was overstating it, but he's not a legit threat in a triple crown race IMHO

You may be right, Toussaud. Not to put words in your mouth, but, I think you're discounting his wins because they came at Aqueduct, citing your examples. He did beat Mucho Macho Man twice, who came back to take the Risen Star. To me, it looked like a classic example of a horse who needed a race. Mott could've found an easier spot for him than the Fountain of Youth. He got beat by an improving sort like Soldat who also had the benefit of recency. If he crashes and burns in the Wood/Florida Derby, then I'll rethink my argument.

[toussaud]

You may be right, Toussaud. Not to put words in your mouth, but, I think you're discounting his tingwins because they came at Aqueduct, citing your examples. He did beat Mucho Macho Man twice, who came back to take the Risen Star. To me, it looked like a classic example of a horse who needed a race. Mott could've found an easier spot for him than the Fountain of Youth. He got beat by an improving sort like Soldat who also had the benefit of recency. If he crashes and burns in the Wood/Florida Derby, then I'll rethink my argument.
No i'm discounting him because he's slow. He just so happens to have ran at the big a.

[JustRalph]

WTF Mick? That font you insist on using is a pain in the ass to read.........

[Robert Fischer]

It's all about spacing. The FOY was too soon. And forget about 6-1. If Dialed In goes he is no more than 2-1. Look for him in the Gotham or the TB Derby. Or perhaps he stays home for the Timely Writer. If he waits until the Florida Derby fine. Nick has forgotten more about racing than I'll ever know. If Dialed In is in the gate for the Derby he wins. Final answer!:)

The decision may reflect on how confident Zito is with Dialed In stretching out.

A win in the Florida Derby and Preakness would be a silly 5million bonus
obviously Zito isn't going to train the horse specifically for a gimmick
but if the shoe fits...

[OTM Al]

I still really like To Honor and Serve. Little piece in the Times today confirms my thinking on that one. Look for a much better result in the next and less from Soldat.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/sports/01racing.html?_r=1

[classhandicapper]

The decision may reflect on how confident Zito is with Dialed In stretching out.

A win in the Florida Derby and Preakness would be a silly 5million bonus
obviously Zito isn't going to train the horse specifically for a gimmick
but if the shoe fits...

To me, the biggest problem with Dialed In is his trainer.

IMO, Zito is one of the better trainers at pointing for a specific race and getting a big effort on the right day, but he's not one of the better trainers at getting a horse to his peak and then keeping him there for a sustained period of time. IMO his horses are notoriously more in and out than some of the other trainers that have top horses in their barn.

It wouldn't shock me in the least if Dialed In ran a sub par race as the favorite either next out or the time after that and it wouldn't shock me if he ran several bad races and then won the Travers either. You just never know what to expect out of his horses.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I still really like To Honor and Serve. Little piece in the Times today confirms my thinking on that one. Look for a much better result in the next and less from Soldat.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/sports/01racing.html?_r=1

I see nothing negative to be taken from Saturday either.And although the race wasn't loaded for bear with early speed,I don't expect any relative frontrunner to have it easy with another similar horse in the race while coming off a layoff.It was a tuneup to me.

[toussaud]

To me, the biggest problem with Dialed In is his trainer.

IMO, Zito is one of the better trainers at pointing for a specific race and getting a big effort on the right day, but he's not one of the better trainers at getting a horse to his peak and then keeping him there for a sustained period of time. IMO his horses are notoriously more in and out than some of the other trainers that have top horses in their barn.

It wouldn't shock me in the least if Dialed In ran a sub par race as the favorite either next out or the time after that and it wouldn't shock me if he ran several bad races and then won the Travers either. You just never know what to expect out of his horses.
generally, zito's horses tend to have a peak shelf life of about a good month to a month and a half lol. If he gets the timing just right his horses can beat anyone.

[OTM Al]

I see nothing negative to be taken from Saturday either.And although the race wasn't loaded for bear with early speed,I don't expect any relative frontrunner to have it easy with another similar horse in the race while coming off a layoff.It was a tuneup to me.

Besides the fact that horses outside the 6 hole are at a distinct disadvantage at the 1 1/8 mile distance at GP. Extra energy has to be used by horses out there to get position going into the quick first turn and likely they still get hung wide as was the case for this horse. Yet he still had a little bit coming around the second turn. One should expect him to flatten on his first back when this race was a prep in the true sense of the word. If he stinks next out and gets an awful Derby draw, then I may well get off him, but not until then.

[redshift1]

I see nothing negative to be taken from Saturday either.And although the race wasn't loaded for bear with early speed,I don't expect any relative frontrunner to have it easy with another similar horse in the race while coming off a layoff.It was a tuneup to me.

I'm off THAS after the FOY but I was off R Heat Lightning before the Davona Dale and still mystified about her sudden resurgence.

[PhantomOnTour]

I downplayed Soldat before the race and picked against him, citing a tough pace assignment. That tough assignment never happened and he cruised on a relatively easy pace (well below par).
I am still downplaying him after the race. Yeah, Soldat finished up nicely (just like his last race...easy pace and big finish) but I still want to see him perform after attending a solid pace.
I will probably try to beat him next time.