Place & Show Pari-Mutuel Betting Rules

[bigbrown]

Does anybody has a quick link that explains the rules of place & show betting for the pari-mutuel system? I.e. how exactly are the payoff's computed.

I am especially interested in how the place and show payoffs can be computed or estimated from the pools available at the Post Time (e.g., win pools, place pools, show pools, track takeout).

[Dave Schwartz]

That would be a great topic for an "Improve Your Game in 10 Minutes or Less" episode.

Thanks for the idea!

[Overlay]

For place betting, subtract the take from the total place pool. Then, from that result, subtract the amounts bet to place on each of the top two finishers. Divide the remainder in half. (This is each of the top two finishers' share of the net pool.) Divide the amount bet on each of the top two finishers by 2 (to represent the number of $2.00 wagers on each horse). Divide that number into each horse's share of the place pool, round the result down to the nearest multiple of ten or twenty cents (depending on nickel or dime breakage), and add the original $2.00 bet back in to arrive at the amount of the $2.00 place payoff on each horse.

Simplified example:

Total place pool: $200
Track take: 15%
Amount bet to place on winner: $50
Amount bet to place on place horse: $40

$200 - $30 (take) = $170
$170 - ($50 + $40) = $80
Each of the top two finishers gets half of that $80 result, or $40.

For the winner, its $40 share is divided by 25 (since $50 in the place pool on the horse represents 25 $2.00 wagers), with the result being $1.60. (Since this is already a round amount, there will be no further breakage.) Add the $2.00 wager back in, and the place payoff on the winner is $3.60.

The place horse's place price is its $40 share divided by 20, or $2.00 (again with no breakage), plus the original $2.00 wager, for a total place payoff of $4.00.

Show payoffs work just the same way, except that, after the take is subtracted off the top of the show pool, the amounts bet to show on each of the top three (rather than two) finishers are deducted, and the remainder is divided into three (rather than two) equal parts. For each of the top three finishers, the result (that is, the horse's share of the net show pool) is then once again divided by the number of $2.00 wagers represented by the total amount bet on each horse in the show pool. If the result is not already a round number, it is rounded down according to the amount of breakage in effect. Then the $2.00 wager is added back in for each of the three top finishers to arrive at the horse's final $2.00 show payoff.

[Dave Schwartz]

well, there goes the great video idea!

LOL - Just kidding.

[stu]

don't forget the effects of net pool pricing

[therussmeister]

I can tell you from my experience with betting show that any horse having 15% of the show pool almost always will pay $3.00 or better. The very, very few times it payed less was in a small field with two strong co-favorites in the money, and also races with a successful bridge-jumper.

This proved to be a extremely reliable guideline for me and I have to believe it would be easy through observation to find equivalent prices for other pool percentages.

[bigbrown]

For place betting, subtract the take from the total place pool. Then, from that result, subtract the amounts bet to place on each of the top two finishers. Divide the remainder in half. (This is each of the top two finishers' share of the net pool.) Divide the amount bet on each of the top two finishers by 2 (to represent the number of $2.00 wagers on each horse). Divide that number into each horse's share of the place pool, round the result down to the nearest multiple of ten or twenty cents (depending on nickel or dime breakage), and add the original $2.00 bet back in to arrive at the amount of the $2.00 place payoff on each horse.

Simplified example:

Total place pool: $200
Track take: 15%
Amount bet to place on winner: $50
Amount bet to place on place horse: $40

$200 - $30 (take) = $170
$170 - ($50 + $40) = $80
Each of the top two finishers gets half of that $80 result, or $40.

For the winner, its $40 share is divided by 25 (since $50 in the place pool on the horse represents 25 $2.00 wagers), with the result being $1.60. (Since this is already a round amount, there will be no further breakage.) Add the $2.00 wager back in, and the place payoff on the winner is $3.60.

The place horse's place price is its $40 share divided by 20, or $2.00 (again with no breakage), plus the original $2.00 wager, for a total place payoff of $4.00.

Show payoffs work just the same way, except that, after the take is subtracted off the top of the show pool, the amounts bet to show on each of the top three (rather than two) finishers are deducted, and the remainder is divided into three (rather than two) equal parts. For each of the top three finishers, the result (that is, the horse's share of the net show pool) is then once again divided by the number of $2.00 wagers represented by the total amount bet on each horse in the show pool. If the result is not already a round number, it is rounded down according to the amount of breakage in effect. Then the $2.00 wager is added back in for each of the three top finishers to arrive at the horse's final $2.00 show payoff.

Thank you very much Overlay for your comprehensive response.

I understand now how Final payoff are computed: seems that it depends on the horse winning the race.

Is there a way to estimate the payoffs for place and show at Post Time, so that one has an idea if there is any Value in betting a particular horse to place (show)? Ie, similarly with the win situation when say a horse is 5/1 at Post Time , and if I believe that it should be 3/1 then I wager on that horse, is there any "value based" approach that one can employ for place (show) wagering?

As the place (show) payoffs seem to depend on the horse winning the race, this does not seem to be as straightforward...

[acorn54]

in the eighties william ziamba i believe wrote a book on place and show inefficientcies .
now with the oftentimes dramatic changes that occur from simulcast money coming into the parimutuel calculation after betting is closed, this idea has lost popularity, as one can not reliably determine place and show inefficientcies any longer before the betting is closed.

[bigbrown]

in the eighties william ziamba i believe wrote a book on place and show inefficientcies .
now with the oftentimes dramatic changes that occur from simulcast money coming into the parimutuel calculation after betting is closed, this idea has lost popularity, as one can not reliably determine place and show inefficientcies any longer before the betting is closed.

This is interesting it might help, I will try to dig to see if any formulas there can be useful with my question.

I am however not looking for a Ziemba like "inefficiency"; I remember that Ziemba was using the Public estimates of probabilities (odds) for winning as he considered "efficient" the win market and detected inefficiencies for the place markets.

My situation is a little different: assuming that my belief is that horse A has a 25% probability to place, and this is not necessarily coming from the win odds, then I would wager if I the payoff (to one) would be 5 and I would not wager if the payoff would be 3. I also appreciate the fact that payoffs can go down from Post Time to final especially for the winning entries, but I don't want to go there , as I can factor this somehow in my wagering: e.g., in the example above I would wager only if my Post Time estimation of the place payoff is say 6 and not 5, to leave some "room" for the payoff diminishing due to "last minute action".
All I want to know is: how can I estimate this payoff at the Post Time? If my estimation in the previous example would be 3, then for sure I would not wager.

[Coleman]

Certain totes have an option which shows minimum place show payouts for each horse, which it computes by assuming each horse will, say, show with the other two horses with the most pool money also show. I know expressbet has this for most tracks. This is very useful if you are targeting a specific minimum payout.

[Overlay]

Is there a way to estimate the payoffs for place and show at Post Time, so that one has an idea if there is any Value in betting a particular horse to place (show)? Ie, similarly with the win situation when say a horse is 5/1 at Post Time , and if I believe that it should be 3/1 then I wager on that horse, is there any "value based" approach that one can employ for place (show) wagering?

As the place (show) payoffs seem to depend on the horse winning the race, this does not seem to be as straightforward...

About the only ways I've heard of attempting that (outside of having the kind of toteboard that Coleman mentioned that will calculate and display the range of all possible place and show prices for each horse) is to examine the proportion of each pool accounted for by each horse, looking for those that account for less of a share of the place or show pool than of the win pool; or if there is a horse consuming a large share of the place and/or show pools that you are fairly confident (for whatever reason) will run third or worse (for the place pool) or finish out of the money (for the show pool). Of course, there are still the noted complications with late money coming in.

[Fingal]

Cynthia Publishing used to sell a handheld Casio Computer that had the program which used the different pools & gave place/show figures. Don't think they offer it any more though.

[bigbrown]

Cynthia Publishing used to sell a handheld Casio Computer that had the program which used the different pools & gave place/show figures. Don't think they offer it any more though.

Interesting: do you know if they also published any math related with their program? ie ways to compute their "place & show" figures starting from win place and show pool numbers.

[bigbrown]

well, there goes the great video idea!

LOL - Just kidding.

Dave,

I guess the video idea still stands, however it would be nice if you can work out and show some math that can help the handicapper figure out algebraically if there is value or not in a particular place or show play; I am talking about estimations of place and show payoffs rather than vague heuristics about "when a place/show bet makes sense"...

Thanks!