Performance Class Ratings

[Shacopate]

I had the William L. Scott book some time ago, but lost it in a move. Does anyone know or remember exactly how these ratings were calculated?

[Shacopate]

I think the book was called "Total Victory at the Track."

I might be mistaken.

[shanta]

the book is "total victory at the track" by william scott. i dont remember how they made that rating but it was pretty good! check your local library,they might have a copy there. mine does here in westchester. good luck richie:)

[GameTheory]

The short version is:

-- sum up the 2nd call POSITIONS of your horse from his pps (last 10, presumably) -- call this A

-- sum up the finish positions -- call this B

-- sum up A & B -- call this C

-- for each past race, add or subtract "class points" from C depending on whether they were at a lower or higher level than today. For one level higher, subtract 1 point, for two levels or more higher, subtract 2 points, unless the class level of the past race was substantially higher, then subtract 3 (like if it is an ALW today and the past race was a graded stakes). If the class was lower than today, then add the points to C instead of subtracting them.

-- sum up the field sizes for all these races (total number of horses) -- call this D

-- Divide D by the adjusted C to get your PCR (then multiply by 100 & round)

Also, just looking at A compared to B will give you and idea of running style...

[Shacopate]

Thanks GT,

It's a shame we lost this guy, he had some innovative ideas.

Ablility times, form defects and advantages, and PCR's which I know Bris still uses.

[BETKING]

If you like these figures you can get almost all of them in The "Fast Fred Professional 3.53 software. Its prints them out in a great report. It also has the figs of Quinn, Qurin, and Brohamer. Its a great piece of software.

BETKING

[CapperLou]

"Total Victory At The Track"

Mr Scott's last book mentioned above is one of the best handicapping method books ever published. I have used it's methods in some variation to be able to WIN at certain tracks for many years.

Mr Scott was a brilliant attorney in the Washington D.C. area and loved the horses. His real name was Finley. I have met some of the so called smartest handicappers over the years and he was one of the best!!

TVAAT software is available thru Thomas Racing Systems in Maryland. Contact Matt Thomas--you'll find it under Google.

I still get a kick out of the fact that when All Ways sends out it's ROI for it's different impact values--the Scott Ability Time usually has a higher or 2nd highest ROI in the various distances and surfaces. All Ways has the Scott PCR & Ability times column on its software.

You can find the book thru Amazon.com.

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Scott helped more than anyone else to enable me to become profitable at the races over time by using "spot plays" of his when there is value at certain tracks.

[PaceAdvantage]

As some may or may not know, he is the father of Bill Finley, former racing columnist for the New York Daily News and recently with ESPN...(at least I don't think he's still with the News...I haven't read that paper in years)


==PA

[BillW]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
As some may or may not know, he is the father of Bill Finley, former racing columnist for the New York Daily News and recently with ESPN...(at least I don't think he's still with the News...I haven't read that paper in years)


==PA

I seem to remember his pseudonym (Real name: Joe Finley ??) was derived from his 3 kids' names, William, Lucinda(?) and Scott.

Bill

[cj]

He also has a book called "How Will Your Horse Run Today?" that had a type of performance rating. I don't remember the exact way to calculate it, but it concentrated on the last fraction. It is available at Barnes and Noble for about $6 through the used book dealers. Also, "Investing at the Racetrack" which you can find for around $5. The book the others are talking about, Total Victory at the Track : The Promise and the Performance, is available for around $10. I read all many years ago, and I think they were pretty good. Hell, I may buy all 3 again just for the hell of it. $20 isn't a bad deal.

[Pace Cap'n]

Originally posted by BETKING
If you like these figures you can get almost all of them in The "Fast Fred Professional 3.53 software. Its prints them out in a great report. It also has the figs of Quinn, Qurin, and Brohamer. Its a great piece of software.

BETKING

Checked out the website and found it intriguing. I would be interested to hear what features of the program you find most useful, and any general information you would care to share about it.

Thanks,
Steve

[BETKING]

Pace,
Go back to the web site and go to Customer Service. Print out the manual. This will tell you every thing that you want to know. It makes a Power Number and odds line that can't be beat.

BETKING

[tanda]

Isn't there a writer named Scott Finley?

Is he a son of WLS as well .. and brother of writer Bill?

[LOU M.]

Could you post the web address please. Does the program produce 'Quinn" turf figures? Thanks,Lou.

[Pace Cap'n]

Originally posted by LOU M.
Could you post the web address please. Does the program produce 'Quinn" turf figures? Thanks,Lou.

Here's the website. Don't know about the figs, but if you look around you might find the answer.

http://www.kangagold.com/fastfred_main.htm

[CapperLou]

Lou M.

The website for Mat Thomas for getting TVAAT software is as follows: www.webdynamicscorp.com/smert/main.htm

You can contact Mat there.

Yes, William was the Father of the handicapper and writer--that's where the "pen name" comes from.

"Investing At The Racetrack" was his first book, then he wrote"How Will You Horse Run Today", then TVAAT.

All three are great reads and each one progresses from the other. Someone asked about Quirin figures--there are no figures from anyone but himself in his books. His stuff is original--AND--as I mentioned earlier--despite all the changes in racing in the last 10-15 yrs--his method still works well at quite a few tracks.

Hope this helps everybody--I have posted about Scott on earlier threads.

All the best,


CapperLou

[Shacopate]

This the way William L. Scott created his "Ability Times." If anyone is interested, I can post the Form Defects and Advantages as well.


1. Calculate the lead time from the Qtr pole to the finish.

2.. Adjust for lengths gained. (the lenghts gained calculation should not be made from a second call beaten lenghts number greater than 8. For example, a horse behind 12 lenghts at the 2nd call that finishes 7 lenghts behind the winner is credited for a gain of one length.)

3. Energy adjustment: Calculate the horses 2nd call time.

47 to 47.80 add 1/5th.
48 to 48.80 add 2/5ths.
49 to 49.80 add 3/5ths.
50 to 50.80 add 4/5ths.

(adjustments start at 46 for California)

4. Lenghts gained gains in fifths of seconds

less than one none
1 to 1 and 3/4 one
2 to 2 and 3/4 two
3 to 3 and 3/4 three
4 to 4 and 3/4 three
5 to 5 and 3/4 four
6 to 6 and 1/4 four
6.5 to 7 and 1/4 five
7.5 to 8 six
8 and more six

5. Turn times are use for routes.

[socantra]

Originally posted by BETKING
If you like these figures you can get almost all of them in The "Fast Fred Professional 3.53 software. Its prints them out in a great report. It also has the figs of Quinn, Qurin, and Brohamer. Its a great piece of software.

BETKING

I own Fast Fred Professional, and I like it and use it fairly often. I also think its a nice piece of work. Unfortunately, his treatment pf PCR's is of little value, because he only uses the total number, while a great deal of the value of Scott's Performance Class Ratings is in the internal numbers, which indicate how the horse tends to run (early or late), and against what class of competition it has been running.

Back when the book first came out, I actually went through Scott's little tutorial chapter, and got fairly competent at running the figures in my head. Unfortunately, with multitrack wagering, and the atrophying of my brain due to computer use, such a feat is no longer possible.

while using the PCR's, I found the internal numbers much more useful than the totals, which are too broad to have a great deal of meaning by themselves. The lowest ranked PCR total does win, with enough frequency to make the numbers of questionable value as a rating system. I got burned on them at least twice last week at Oak Tree.

I also think Scott's form ratings are of limited value in today's racing with his recency cutoff of 21 days. I still look at them, but can't give them much credence.

socantra......

[BETKING]

Thanks for the info.
Have you suggested this to Kanga. The PCR numbers could be broken out and added to the printout easily. They are always looking for a way to improve their product.

I have all three of Scott's books and have read and reread them several times over the past years. If you play the New York tracks his system works best and the form factors work well.
Good luck,

BETKING

[Tom]

I thought he was a good au thor-easy to red becasue he could hold your attention. I use to mark every horse for his form defects, ala the +,-,N rankings, and do the ability times by hand-had very good results at FL in the old days before computers and simulcasting.
Finley was a guest at a Sartin Seminar in Baltimore on year-very likeable fellow and he gave out a contender method that I still use today when I am on the road and don't have my full arsenal at hand.

[CapperLou]

Tom:

You have it right--before computers and simul--it was very easy to win using Scott's stuff from "How Will Your Horse Run Today" and later Total Victory At The Track!! Of course, the prices were not beaten down then as they are now.

I am still able to profit the last many years since simul & computers by using spot plays when I have a horse that stands out and offers value. One just has to have a lot of patience and know which tracks to play. I will say that New York & Florida are playable on fast tracks and finding the spots.

I spent some time with Mr Finley years ago and he taught me more than anyone I had ever met including the original Clocker Billy Laughton & Ray Taulbot. I spent time with Taulbot at New Jersey tracks before he passed away and I met Laughton in Florida when I moved here in mid 70's. Laughton won at Hialeah like no one I have ever seen.

All the best,

CapperLou

[Shacopate]

PCR's absolutely killed Mountianeer on tuesday. Almost laughable. I'd say this is definitely a prime factor.

[Shacopate]

What condender method did Finley (Scott) give you?

Very interested.

[andicap]

Old methods sometimes come back into play as people move on to other, more"modern" methods, such as pace, etc.

Mark Cramer's theory is that since class has fell out of favor it should do better. You won't win more races, but payoffs will be better.

Maybe that's what happened with PCS ratings?

[Tom]

MR. Finley gave this contender selection methoid to the Sartin group at Baltimore:

1. Look at each horse's last two races and circle the highest Beyer of the two.
2. Take the top three circles Beyers and these three horses are contenders.
3. Now ignore the top top two races on each horse and circle the highest Beyer in the remaining 8 races (or ten, whichever) and the top three of these are also contenders.
4. You now have 3-6 contenders (one horse might have a top three in each catagory).

That is it.
When I use it, I don't care if I use turf numbers in dirt races or sprint numbers in route races - just the Beyer no matter where it was earned.

The idea was to get contenders to run through the Sartin programs.

[Thomason]

Tom,

Thank you for the post of Scott's contender selection method. I read his book "How Will Your Horse Run Today?" years ago and it struck a chord. Within a week, I had purchased his other two books and all three are sitting on my desk as I type this. Great stuff. I've heard he was a fine gentleman, too.

Michael Thomason

[CapperLou]

Michael:

If you read some of my earlier posts on him you will see that I regard him as probably the smartest handicapper I have ever met.

He was a gentleman and a brilliant attorney at law!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[Thomason]

Tom,

You mentioned that Scott gave his contender method to the Sartin Group in Baltimore. Do you remember when that occurred?

My friend Joe Majors is a former Sartin member and he has a bookcase full of Sartin's "follow ups" (I think that's what they were called). I'll see if he has the one for that meeting.

Michael Thomason

[socantra]

Originally posted by Shacopate
PCR's absolutely killed Mountianeer on tuesday. Almost laughable. I'd say this is definitely a prime factor.

Perhaps I spoke too harshly of the PCR totals. They are definitely of value, but I found them much more valuable with the internals. I need to drop Kanga a note.

You'll have days like that, and maybe they are more usefull at a place like Mountaineer, where a large group of similar horses run against each other frequently. I believe Scott's research said he found the winner in the top 3 PCR's 65% of the time in routes, and in sprints around 45%.

socantra.....

[Thomason]

I have been reluctant to mention this because All-Ways is regularly bashed on this Board and I use it. But All-Ways does compute both Scott's Performance Class Ratings and Ability Times.

Michael Thomason

[andicap]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Shacopate
[B]This the way William L. Scott created his "Ability Times." If anyone is interested, I can post the Form Defects and Advantages as well.

-------
I'd be interested in the form defects/advantages.
thanks,

[Tom]

Originally posted by Thomason
Tom,

You mentioned that Scott gave his contender method to the Sartin Group in Baltimore. Do you remember when that occurred?

My friend Joe Majors is a former Sartin member and he has a bookcase full of Sartin's "follow ups" (I think that's what they were called). I'll see if he has the one for that meeting.

Michael Thomason

It was 1992-93?
Not sure, but it was the one where the fire alarm went off all night long. Dick Schmidt might remember the year. It was unforgetable!
I am on the sixth floor, just got out of the shower (It was sweltering and the AC was off in our meeting room, so we called it an early night. I order a pay-for-view movie, pop open a cold one and just plopped into bed when the first alarm went off.
I thought it was a false alarm, but when it didn't stop, I looked out my window, and to my horror, I saw scores of people in the street, and more runnig out the front doors, and a firetruck with lights flashing right in front of the Holdiay Inn!!!!
I was getting dressed on the stairs on my way down and still don't think I touched more than half a dozen steps all the way down!

[Shacopate]

Andicap,

Ratings:

0 --- form defect; eliminate
N --- No significant impact, or neutral: ACCEPT.
+ --- A plus factor; give extra credit.
U --- Unknown: Do not rate.

+ --- has run within 7 days or less than today.
+ --- has run within 21 days of today and has either:

a. A 5f bullet witnin 14 days.
b. An exceptionally fast 5f work, such as 59.80 or less for East and Midwest; in the West 58.80 or less.

N --- has run within 21 days.
N --- has run within 28 days of today and has worked at 4f or longer within the past week.
N --- regardless of layoff time, has worked 5f or longer within 14 days.

0 --- Has not run in 21 days, without a qualifying workout.

To qualify for the rating the horse must have been "up close" at the stretch call of the last usable race. Sprints 3 lenghts, 7f and Mile 4 lenghts, 1 1/16th and longer 5 lenghts.

Horses dropping in class can be "up close" at any call.
Z pattern is also acceptable.

All horses that do not qualify for the + or N ratings will receive a "0" a form defect, to be eliminated.

The exceptions are the "U" horses, including 1sters, 1st on grass, foreign shippers.

Horses rising in class are most likely to win coming off a "big win" 3 or more lenghts AND having another plus factor.

[Thomason]

The latest All-Ways newsletter deals with the Breeder's Cup races and Scott's Performance Class Ratings are mentioned prominently.

For high caliber Santa Anita Dirt Sprints, Scott PCR have an I.V. of 2.40 and a R.O.I. of $3.45.

For high caliber Dirt Routes, the PCR have an I.V. of 2.62 and a R.O.I. of $2.07.


Michael Thomason

P.S. Tom, I sent Joe Majors an email regarding the Sartin followup for the Baltimore meeting you mentioned. Joe's in the process of moving this week and so everything's packed up, so it may takes a few days.