Low Takeout is a waste of time for a track

[samyn on the green]

Takeout takeout takeout. Yes a real concern for a few but why does the high takeout trifecta(25%) have double the handle of the low takeout(12%) pick 3 at Sam Houston?

Horseplaying for most is a vice based on compulsion, not a action based on reason. Sorry, but this is the landscape that the game is built on. There is nothing we can do to change that. Management knows the demographic that it is dealing with. Here are the pool numbers from Sam Houston on 2/14/2011. this scenario is repeated day after day for years.

If takeout was such an overwhelming factor driving handle and wagering choices why do the high takeout three horse bets dominate the low takeout three horse bets at Sam Houston? Seems like horseplayers are just in it for the action and most really don't care what the takeout is as long as they get something when they win.

I'm not stating this as my opinion but as an observation. Until horseplayers can show that low takeout will drive handle management is not going to be motivated to lower takeout.

Race 3 tri pool 17k / pick 3 5k

race 4 tri pool 24K / pick 3 3K

race 5 tri pool 18K / pick 3 3K

race 6 tri pool 21K / pick 3 5K

race 7 tri pool 33K / pick 3 5K

race 8 tri 18K / pick 3 4K

race 9 tri pool 18K / pick 3 10k

race 10 tri pool 32K /pick 3 5K

race 11 tri pool 31K / pick 3 10K

[Twenty Seven]

Takeout takeout takeout. Yes a real concern for a few but why does the high takeout trifecta(25%) have double the handle of the low takeout(12%) pick 3 at Sam Houston?

Horseplaying for most is a vice based on compulsion, not a action based on reason. Sorry, but this is the landscape that the game is built on. There is nothing we can do to change that. Management knows the demographic that it is dealing with. Here are the pool numbers from Sam Houston on 2/14/2011. this scenario is repeated day after day for years.

If takeout was such an overwhelming factor driving handle and wagering choices why do the high takeout three horse bets dominate the low takeout three horse bets at Sam Houston? Seems like horseplayers are just in it for the action and most really don't care what the takeout is as long as they get something when they win.

I'm not stating this as my opinion but as an observation. Until horseplayers can show that low takeout will drive handle management is not going to be motivated to lower takeout.

Race 3 tri pool 17k / pick 3 5k

race 4 tri pool 24K / pick 3 3K

race 5 tri pool 18K / pick 3 3K

race 6 tri pool 21K / pick 3 5K

race 7 tri pool 33K / pick 3 5K

race 8 tri 18K / pick 3 4K

race 9 tri pool 18K / pick 3 10k

race 10 tri pool 32K /pick 3 5K

race 11 tri pool 31K / pick 3 10K


One reason is that intra-race bets have a long history. Serial wagers are newer to the scene. Those multi-race bets, though, are gaining steam as people become more comfortable with them.

Sam Houston is a poor model to use. The multi-race plays aren't popular when fields are small. Inefficiencies in the market are less with fewer horses per race. But at other tracks with fuller fields and/or better quality racing, there's nothing wrong with the pool-size of P3s and P4s.

Smaller fields also aren't great for triactors and exactors, obviously, but at least a bettor can have a rough idea of the odds a minute before post time.

Another reason serial bets are less popular in general is that they take a lot more time and effort to handicap -- and especially more time to construct a bet around. unless one's a pro player, most simply don't have the time or inclination for that, and those who venture to play those options inevitably get burned by half-measures.

Also, whales often plunge into pools intra-race only, with less than a minute to go since any edge they can garner is tied in to minute discrepancies in odds (they don't have to worry about covering a 20% take every race), and they can accept more plays which would otherwise fall into the underlay category for non-rebate players. This opportunity is obviously not possible for rebaters in multi-race bets.

[samyn on the green]

I looked at this in 2008 and the chasm between the tri and pick 3 pools has grown.

Total tri pools 212K / total pick 3 pools 50K.

I understand that tris are more popular but the low takeout pick3 at Sam still has not helped drive handle. It is disappointing that the low takeout marketing has not closed the gap. On this day the trifecta had 4 times as much handle than the pick 3 in comparable races. The tri takeout is 2 times as much as the pick 3. One reason is that intra-race bets have a long history. Serial wagers are newer to the scene. Those multi-race bets, though, are gaining steam as people become more comfortable with them.

Sam Houston is a poor model to use. The multi-race plays aren't popular when fields are small. Inefficiencies in the market are less with fewer horses per race. But at other tracks with fuller fields and/or better quality racing, there's nothing wrong with the pool-size of P3s and P4s.

Smaller fields also aren't great for triactors and exactors, obviously, but at least a bettor can have a rough idea of the odds a minute before post time.

Another reason serial bets are less popular in general is that they take a lot more time and effort to handicap -- and especially more time to construct a bet around. unless one's a pro player, most simply don't have the time or inclination for that, and those who venture to play those options inevitably get burned by half-measures.

Also, whales often plunge into pools intra-race only, with less than a minute to go since any edge they can garner is tied in to minute discrepancies in odds (they don't have to worry about covering a 20% take every race), and they can accept more plays which would otherwise fall into the underlay category for non-rebate players. This opportunity is obviously not possible for rebaters in multi-race bets.

[lamboguy]

hasting's park reduced takeout in their show pools, i actually think that the reduction has decreased business in that particular pool.

but for a short term basis, lowered takeout does raise handle in most cases, but i stress on a short term basis. lower takeout and other major changes are needed to make racing a viable game.

[Stillriledup]

Here's the problem and i think TS touched on this a bit. SH is a 'B' track and its a track that most people don't play as their first, 2nd or even 3rd gambling choices (for those of us who play multiple tracks). So, in order to take advantage of a 'low takeout' at a track you are not familiar with, you need to be able to bet one race, not a horizontal bet. With a pick 3, it requires you to handicap 3 races in order to make one wager. Its not worth the work you have to put into a signal you're not familiar with. Especially since the pick 3 pool is extremely low to begin with. Its not even 20k, its totally not worth the risk and the amt of work you have to put into the bet imo.

HANA had a 'pool party' at SH for pick 3's because of the low takeout, but i dont follow that signal at all and wasnt about to handicap 3 races to bet into a 5k pool at a track i'm not familiar with.

Now, if they had their pool party on a Trifecta or exacta or something like that, i would have went into it, as it wouldnt have been as much of a problem to handicap one race. But to handicap 3, is more work than i want to invest.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

hasting's park reduced takeout in their show pools, i actually think that the reduction has decreased business in that particular pool.

but for a short term basis, lowered takeout does raise handle in most cases, but i stress on a short term basis. lower takeout and other major changes are needed to make racing a viable game.
I believe they raised it back after one year.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Having one low takeout bet doesn't solve much. It might, from a tracks perspective lure some Horseplayers to handicap those races and many will play other pools as well.
The extra money made by those hitting the low takeout bets is likely to be churned back almost immediately into high takeout pools either at the same track or a simulcast track (or another track on the ADW menu if betting from home).
Sam Houston may have more eyes on it and players than it would if they didn't have such a bet, but the bet itself isn't going to cure much when it comes to fixing the game. We need widespread reduction in takeout for that.

[NTamm1215]

Having one low takeout bet doesn't solve much. It might, from a tracks perspective lure some Horseplayers to handicap those races and many will play other pools as well.
The extra money made by those hitting the low takeout bets is likely to be churned back almost immediately into high takeout pools either at the same track or a simulcast track (or another track on the ADW menu if betting from home).
Sam Houston may have more eyes on it and players than it would if they didn't have such a bet, but the bet itself isn't going to cure much when it comes to fixing the game. We need widespread reduction in takeout for that.

So those that scream about takeout being high want to have their cake and eat it too?

[toussaud]

I think tracks, would do a lot better to "lure" people in with a low takeout on W/P/S becuase it's 1 race and easily hittable, easier to form a favorable impression on a track, then to ask someone to jump in and bet a pick 4 at a track you have never wagered on or don't wager on often.


Betting at a new track is like going swimming. You start off by dipping your toe in the water to see if the water is too cold or whatever. Then you get in the water and wade around a little bit once you get somewhat comfortable. After a while, you start to swim. At least me, I have never just jumped into any track and just started playing pick 4's and pick 6's guns blazing, even though I am a primarily W/P/S bettor I do dabble, but only at tracks I feel comfortable doing so at.

[lamboguy]

Having one low takeout bet doesn't solve much. It might, from a tracks perspective lure some Horseplayers to handicap those races and many will play other pools as well.
The extra money made by those hitting the low takeout bets is likely to be churned back almost immediately into high takeout pools either at the same track or a simulcast track (or another track on the ADW menu if betting from home).
Sam Houston may have more eyes on it and players than it would if they didn't have such a bet, but the bet itself isn't going to cure much when it comes to fixing the game. We need widespread reduction in takeout for that.all that a lower takeout rate does is keep a player alive longer, you know that as well as anyone. it does nothing at all to bring enough new players in for the game to survive. a combination overhaul and lower takeout would be the key. l

[Horseplayersbet.com]

So those that scream about takeout being high want to have their cake and eat it too?
I'm dealing in realities here. I'm explaining the reality of a low lure bet which will not create new players versus a paradigm shift that is needed in order to create new players.
I'm sure that Sam Houston is better off because it offers that bet. It has enticed me to play the track a few times, and I bet other exotics once handicapping the card. But it just creates a shift by making a player play there instead of another track. It by itself doesn't create new players for the industry.
A 12% takeout on all bets offered by Hialeah is something that can actually grow their local fan base (and create new Horseplayers), and the same is true with Tioga Downs, as players last much longer regardless of whether they understand takeout....but it takes time, especially with simulcast wagers available at higher takeouts.

[DSB]

The hastings park example used earlier basically proves nothing, and its failure could have easily been predicted.

What serious bettor - the kind that would be enticed by low takeouts - would consider making big show bets at a small track, with small pools, like hastings? I think they got the answer, and as I said, it could have been predicted.

Nobody can draw a conclusion concerning lowering takeouts based on that example.

Takeouts matter, whether any individual understands them or not, because they affect the amount of money bettors get back and, by extension, whether or not they can win.

If takeout is ever going to make a serious difference, it has to be undertaken on a serioius scale.

Here's something that could work, although it will never be tried, unfortunately.

The NYRA is probably the only entity in racing who can do it. Let's say that the NYRA came out tomorrow and announced: effective immediately, the takeout will be 10% on W,P,S wagers. all other takeouts will remain the same. Our simulcast partners will receive a 50/50 split on simulcast revenues and all other splits will remain the same. Any simulcast outlet that doesn't want to take wagers on our W,P,S pools won't be given the right to take wagers on any of our other pools.

(now i realize their are contractual obligations, but because this is hypothetical anyway, for the sake of simplicity, lets just say that have the ability to dictate this at once.)

What would this accomplish? I believe it would bring big bettors back into the game to take advantage of the favorable rates. The pools are big enough to support it, and would be even bigger once the new money came in. Before long, the profit would more than likely exceed what was previously being gained at the higher rates because of the increase in betting volume.

Once this proves to be the correct course of action, most likely the take on other pools would probably be lowered as well.

although it might not cause a huge return of bettors, it could cause a huge return of money. that's the most important thing, anyway. let the marketing dept figure out how to put asses in the seats. this will put money in the pools.

takeout is just a tax. when you want more of an activity, you tax it less. if you want less of an activity, you tax it more.

racetracks have been taxing more for decades, and getting less of the activity they seek (betting).

apparently track management's attitude mirrors that of our political leaders who haven't figured this out either....

[The_Knight_Sky]

Samyn, do you realize what you're doing is comparing something like this:


Dealer A: made a total of $400,000 in sales
8 Lexus models priced $50,000

Dealer B: made a total of $240,000 in sales
12 Toyota Corollas priced $20,000

Gross sales do not tell then entire story.http://i53.tinypic.com/ev55jl.gif
There were 50% more customers happily signing up with Dealer B
That should count for something.

[castaway01]

The only way the industry will ever actually take notice and make a wipespread move to lower takeout will be if a track cuts all of its takeout rates in half, or something similar, promotes the heck out of it, and then handle more than doubles. And honestly, even if we could get a track to do it, I don't see it working at a minor league track because horseplayers will not change their habits to bet on that track on a degree that would cover the lost revenue. Even if they wanted to, most other tracks and simulcast outlets around the country would probably not carry a track with 12% takeout because after the rights fees they'd make very little on the wagers. I'm not talking about Hialeah and it's miniscule handle, but I remember the mid-Atlantic tracks dropped Keeneland years back when they cut their win takeout, and that was Keeneland. Sad to say, but if a track like Sam Houston cut the take to 12 percent in all pools, they'd get dropped by simulcast outlets nationwide and take a financial beating.

I'm not arguing against lower takeout---that would be idiotic---just saying that I fear it wouldn't even work unless Stronach, NYRA, and Churchill all agreed to cut the take at one time and pledged to support each other. And that's not happening anytime soon.