Fav Under Perform

[misscashalot]

In more than 40000 races

Fav won .356 and when this fav won the
2nd bet choice ran second .112 and the
3rd bet choice ran 3rd .082

2nd bet choice won .214 then the
fav ran second .078 and the
3rd bet choice ran third .044

3rd bet choice won .151 then the
fav ran second .15 and the
2nd bet choice ran 3rd .038

Why should the fav under perform when the
2nd bet choice won the race?

[Hanover1]

My answer will not be nearly as eloquent as those to follow, but my guess is that is because he had a damn good reason to lose.

[misscashalot]

My answer will not be nearly as eloquent as those to follow, but my guess is that is because he had a damn good reason to lose.
go to the head of your class :D

[Coleman]

You are thinking of the stats the wrong way perhaps. What I think they are really saying is:

the favorites finish 1st or 2nd .434 of the time (.356 1st, .078 2nd)
the 2nd favorite is 1st or 2nd .336 of the time (.214 1st, .112 2nd)

Or in other words the favorites don't finish 2nd as often as the 2nd choice because they are too busy finishing 1st.

[Robert Goren]

A lot of favorites in claiming races are droppers with a physical problem. If they hold together, they win. If not, then they are up the track. You don't see many horses who ran in the money last out at higher claiming run second. They win or they run last.

[johnhannibalsmith]

A lot of favorites in claiming races are droppers with a physical problem. If they hold together, they win. If not, then they are up the track. You don't see many horses who ran in the money last out at higher claiming run second. They win or they run last.

This principle accounts for part of my knee-jerk response to the question.

It is found somewhere between the dedication and the appendix to Contrarian Handicapping, Searching For The Truth By Ignoring The Facts.

[Coleman]

Oh dear, don't skip the appendices, or you will severely overbet favorites in 7 1/2 furlong turf races.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Oh dear, don't skip the appendices, or you will severely overbet favorites in 7 1/2 furlong turf races.

Now, now, my compadre in witnessing history in the waiting, the last, and only, favorite that I nearly bet on at a big price in a 7.500001 furlong green sand race was named Mr. Moze, but it was run on the main and The General neglected to mention how much he particularly cared for his chances on that particular day in particular.

[Coleman]

Now, now, my compadre in witnessing history in the waiting, the last, and only, favorite that I nearly bet on at a big price in a 7.500001 furlong green sand race was named Mr. Moze, but it was run on the main and The General neglected to mention how much he particularly cared for his chances on that particular day in particular.

The opaqueness of your flibberdygibberty is nonpareil.

[Coleman]

On the other hand: "green sand" is quite appropriate a propos concerning several turf courses of which I know

[speculus]

In more than 40000 races

Fav won .356 and when this fav won the
2nd bet choice ran second .112 and the
3rd bet choice ran 3rd .082

2nd bet choice won .214 then the
fav ran second .078 and the
3rd bet choice ran third .044

3rd bet choice won .151 then the
fav ran second .15 and the
2nd bet choice ran 3rd .038

Why should the fav under perform when the
2nd bet choice won the race?

Irrespective of linking the fav's show with win of 2nd or 3rd choices, can you please share the stats for the following?

Fav 1st (.356) 2nd (?) 3rd (?)

2nd choice 1st (.214) 2nd (?) 3rd (?)

3rd choice 1st (.151) 2nd (?) 3rd (?)

Thanks in advance.

[Coleman]

The funny thing about this post is that it was a very straightforward question, to which I think I gave what I think was a very straightforward and sensible answer. And yet...

I'm kinda new here though, maybe that's just how it works here.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...
I'm kinda new here though, maybe that's just how it works here.

Hang tight, there's an ebb and flow. Sometimes you wonder why you can't get a response and at times you wonder why you responded. It all equals out in the end.

Now, I'm trying to behave and drift as few threads as possible, and I have one strike so far... (this one doesn't count, I'm being an ambassador to my only audience in the editorial section, who I wish to reassure that he is valued as a contributor.)

[misscashalot]

Irrespective of linking the fav's show with win of 2nd or 3rd choices, can you please share the stats for the following?

Fav 1st (.356) 2nd (?) 3rd (?)

2nd choice 1st (.214) 2nd (?) 3rd (?)

3rd choice 1st (.151) 2nd (?) 3rd (?)

Thanks in advance.

I think I answered in my opening post

Fav won .356 and when this fav won the
2nd bet choice ran second .112 and the
3rd bet choice ran 3rd .082

2nd bet choice won .214 then the
fav ran second .078 and the
3rd bet choice ran third .044

3rd bet choice won .151 then the
fav ran second .15 and the
2nd bet choice ran 3rd .038

or did I misinterpret your question?

[Coleman]

Hang tight, there's an ebb and flow. Sometimes you wonder why you can't get a response and at times you wonder why you responded. It all equals out in the end.

Now, I'm trying to behave and drift as few threads as possible, and I have one strike so far... (this one doesn't count, I'm being an ambassador to my only audience in the editorial section, who I wish to reassure that he is valued as a contributor.)

I have an odd feeling i had a hand in killing the Andy Beyer/ Tampa announcer thread (Miley Cyrus / Justin Bieber / Ovaltine), and yet, it's hard to decide if that's a thing which is good or bad.

But seriously, about the stats...isn't that straightforward?

[senortout]

I have an odd feeling i had a hand in killing the Andy Beyer/ Tampa announcer thread (Miley Cyrus / Justin Bieber / Ovaltine), and yet, it's hard to decide if that's a thing which is good or bad.

But seriously, about the stats...isn't that straightforward?

as is to say, most of the time if you win, you have a very very tiny chance of finishing 2nd! (dead heats?)

well said, and you are 100% correct, most people will not , will absolutely not, respond in the affirmative when something almost goes without saying......its a slap in the eye with the ice cream cone syndrome kinda thingie!

[Coleman]

Thank you for the affirmation, but...slap in the eye with an ice cream cone??

I have never suffered this particular indignity. Which is just as well, because if I had, I'm sure I would lash out at track announcers and takeouts and whatnot.

[speculus]

I think I answered in my opening post

Fav won .356 and when this fav won the
2nd bet choice ran second .112 and the
3rd bet choice ran 3rd .082

2nd bet choice won .214 then the
fav ran second .078 and the
3rd bet choice ran third .044

3rd bet choice won .151 then the
fav ran second .15 and the
2nd bet choice ran 3rd .038

or did I misinterpret your question?

Yes, I am afraid you have misinterpreted.

You have given stats ONLY for the races in which one of the top 3 choices won. I am requesting for the top 3 choices' 1-2-3 finish percentages in ALL races, even in races when 4th choice onwards won.

Hope I am not making it more complicated.

[misscashalot]

Yes, I am afraid you have misinterpreted.



The 2nd bet choice won .214,
Fav finished 2nd in those races .366
3rd bet choice finished second .206

The 3rd bet choice won .151,
Fav finished 2nd in those races .338
2nd bet choice finished 2nd .251

The 4th choice won .102,
Fav finished second in those races .303
2nd bet choice finished 2nd .223
3rd bet choice finished 2nd .200

The 5th choice won .071,
Fav finished 2nd in those races .276
2nd bet choice finished 2nd .211
3rd bet choice finished second .160

The 6th choice won .046,
Fav finished 2nd in those races .272
2nd bet choice finished 2nd .209
3rd bet choice finished 2nd .164

The 7th choice won .029,
Fav finished second in those races .261
2nd bet choice finished 2nd .174
3rd bet choice finished 2nd .164

[speculus]

The 2nd bet choice won .214,
Fav finished 2nd in those races .366
3rd bet choice finished second .206

The 3rd bet choice won .151,
Fav finished 2nd in those races .338
2nd bet choice finished 2nd .251

The 4th choice won .102,
Fav finished second in those races .303
2nd bet choice finished 2nd .223
3rd bet choice finished 2nd .200

The 5th choice won .071,
Fav finished 2nd in those races .276
2nd bet choice finished 2nd .211
3rd bet choice finished second .160

The 6th choice won .046,
Fav finished 2nd in those races .272
2nd bet choice finished 2nd .209
3rd bet choice finished 2nd .164

The 7th choice won .029,
Fav finished second in those races .261
2nd bet choice finished 2nd .174
3rd bet choice finished 2nd .164

Thanks misscashalot for taking all the trouble, but my question was quite simple.

In all (40,000+) races:

Fav 1st (.356) 2nd (?) 3rd (?)
2nd choice 1st (.214) 2nd (?) 3rd (?)
3rd choice 1st (.151) 2nd (?) 3rd (?)

You have already given figures for 1st (I have put those in brackets), can you now just supply percentages (for all the 40,000+ races) in place of the question marks, if it is not too incovenient?

Will highly appreciate that. Thanks again in advance.

[lsosa54]

Would also be curious as to the roi of that favorite that wins at 35.6% About a 14 cent loss on the dollar? I am surprised that the win rate has moved that much above the "traditional" 33%

[sammy the sage]

it would be quite interesting to see the breakdown via class...

maidens
claimers
allowance
stakes

[misscashalot]

Fav 1st (.356) 2nd (.207) 3rd (.141)
2nd choice 1st (.214) 2nd (.208) 3rd (.170)
3rd choice 1st (.151) 2nd (.175) 3rd (.175)

.
.

[misscashalot]

Would also be curious as to the roi of that favorite that wins at 35.6% About a 14 cent loss on the dollar? I am surprised that the win rate has moved that much above the "traditional" 33%
All data from NYRA only
For the past 30 years winning favs have been a steady 36%
(37% females and 35% males)

41,273 races
Bet $82546 on favs
Won $71080
Loss $11466
roi. -.138

[speculus]

Thanks.