It should be noted at this point regarding JCapper...

[PaceAdvantage]

That they are sporting two teams in the P.A.I.H.L. Contest (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=78756) and those two teams, if my math is correct, are currently sitting ONE TWO overall...and except for one or two other teams, the two JCapper teams are ONE TWO by a pretty impressive margin...

In my book, no better advertisement for a handicapping program...I may just have to work something out with Jeff so that I can get my hands on a copy in exchange for some free advertising... :lol:

PS. Team PaceAdvantage (my team, team #31) is currently in first place in our division...well behind JCapper overall, but hey, we're in first place in our division... :lol:

[JimG]

Mike,

I am surprised you do not own JCapper. It is definitely one of the best handicapping products on the market.

Jim

PS...Congrats to the JCapper group(s) in the contest.

[JustRalph]

good stuff.......

[Capper Al]

JCAP is doing well in the contest. These graded stakes the data is form fitting. How is Jcapper at claiming races?

[JustRalph]

JCAP is doing well in the contest. These graded stakes the data is form fitting. How is Jcapper at claiming races?

25k claimer

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inr&country=USA&track=AQU&date=2011-02-11&race=7

Nailed it with jcapper

Jcapper is good in every scenario.

[Capper Al]

25k claimer

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inr&country=USA&track=AQU&date=2011-02-11&race=7

Nailed it with jcapper

Jcapper is good in every scenario.


Impressive.

[netbet]

Good Morning all,

Do any of you use the JCapper Silver program?

And you need to purchase the HDW files or Bris .drf and results file correct?

Thanks.

Just trying to figure this all out.

I've always been a pen/paper handicapper but I've come to realize that the technology available is at least worth investigating.

Thank you.

Patrick

[Solid_Gold]

Regarding Jcapper, I would prefer to see where they finish in the PAIHL rather than where they start before making any judgements on their product.

[PaceAdvantage]

Regarding Jcapper, I would prefer to see where they finish in the PAIHL rather than where they start before making any judgements on their product.Of course you would.The breakeven point in the contest after 6 weeks is around $1,400. They have over $2,500 if I'm not mistaken...

[Jeff P]

Regarding Jcapper, I would prefer to see where they finish in the PAIHL rather than where they start...

Exactly. Lots of work still ahead... against some very tough competition too.

-jp

.

[Jay Trotter]

....originally posted in wrong thread! Sheesh!

The amount bet is $240.00 per card, so after Week 6 the total layout is $1440.00. The two JCapper teams have a return of $2,500.50 and $2,311.50 which gives them ROI's of 1.73 and 1.60 respectively.

Six full weeks into the schedule and both teams up front is not a fluke! Well done JCapper gang!

Trotter:ThmbUp:

[Capper Al]

What's the investment $1,500 for JCaps top of the line plus $10.00 per card? I'm not sure. I would like to see them play some cheap claimers also. All software programs depend on their data. Claimer's data is inconsistent.

[Charli125]

What's the investment $1,500 for JCaps top of the line plus $10.00 per card? I'm not sure. I would like to see them play some cheap claimers also. All software programs depend on their data. Claimer's data is inconsistent.

I'm a happy jcapper user, so let me weigh in real quick. One of the things that drew me to jcapper is made evident by these results. Both teams have done well, but we've done it by picking different horses. Sure, we've hit some of the same, but we've both had big winners that the other didn't. That's the thing about jcapper that I really like. It gives you the options to be able to find your own plays rather than every jcapper user landing on the same horses. I'll also say that talking through the races with 2 other guys can be very interesting. Hearing why each guy likes his horse, etc., can be very enlightening.

The data I use is HDW, and I've found it to be pretty good, better than BRIS in my opinion. I pay for the monthly downloads, so I think it's something like $140 a month for all cards. You of course have the option of only buying the cards you want, but I found this to be the most cost-effective method for me. Plus, if I want to look at a track I don't usually play, I have the data there.

For me, the initial price, and monthly data fees, are well worth it.

[Jeff P]

What's the investment $1,500 for JCaps top of the line plus $10.00 per card? I'm not sure. I would like to see them play some cheap claimers also. All software programs depend on their data. Claimer's data is inconsistent.

JCapper's top of the line program, JCapper Platinum, is $695.00 (not $1500.00) The program supports the following data file types:

1. HDW JCapper Binary Race File - available through HDW (Handicapper's Data Warehouse) with the HDW JCapper Platinum Data Plan, price: $119/mo - unlimited file downloads - both data and results - all thoroughbred races in North America.

2. Brisnet .mcp file - available from Brisnet.com. Grandfathered in monthly TSN .pcs file subscribers can get these files for $60/mo. For all others: Brisnet.com sells individual .mcp files for $5.00 each ($2.00 ea for Brisnet Silver Club Members.)

3. Brisnet .drf single format comma delimited data file - available from Brisnet.com for $1.00 ea.

4. Brisnet .xrd exotic results data file - available from Brisnet.com for 25 cents ea.



-jp

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[Light]

Jeff

You may recall in a Handifest program thread, where they made selections, different sources of data picked different horses on top. Have you experimented with the different data sources with your program to see if you land on the same horses with all 3 data sources you just posted? If so then why would someone want to pay for the more expensive files when the cheaper data would do. If not,then shouldn't the best performing data source be the default one?

[Jeff P]

Light,

Some valid points and interesting questions. What follows is a (hopefully) not too boring history of how things came to be... along with answers to your questions.

The original algorithms for the program that would later evolve into JCapper were created based on observations made using large data samples; all of those observations came from databases built using Brisnet DRF single format data files as the source. As a result, I made the home grown program I was working on Brisnet DRF single file compatible. At the time, I had no plans whatsoever to sell copies of the program – and no reason whatsoever to make that program support any other file type.

At some point I shared a copy of my home grown program with a buddy of mine – who liked it. He, in turn shared a copy with a buddy of his – who also liked it… and he in turn told a buddy, etc., etc. One of my buddy’s friends suggested a few revisions – which I implemented. When I shared with him what I’d produced he told me in no uncertain terms he wanted to purchase a copy of the program – as well as copies of any future revisions I might see fit to produce. Word about the program was spreading by word of mouth – and that’s how JCapper as a commercial enterprise came to be.

About the time the first early copies of JCapper became available, the first posts about JCapper began showing up right here in the software section at Paceadvantage.com. Shortly afterwards, I started receiving inquiries about making the program TSN Procaps file compatible. I resisted at first – but eventually bit the bullet and made that happen.

JCapper is database enabled. It comes with a comprehensive query interface called The Data Window. Users of the program have the ability to query databases and see the performance of the program’s factors, either separately or in combination with each other, in terms of win rate, impact value, and roi.

Once the JCapper user community started to grow I created a message board at JCapper.com. It didn’t take long for members of the JCapper user community to post Data Window results of their data samples. Some of the data samples were quite large. Results from the various data samples showed a very clear trend. Results for the program’s key factors posted by Brisnet data customers always outperformed results for the same factors posted by TSN data customers. Flat win bet roi for Brisnet key factors were typically 1 to 3 points higher than flat win bet roi for TSN key factors. Of course this became known among the JCapper user community as the results were posted on the board for all to see.

Have you experimented with the different data sources with your program to see if you land on the same horses with all 3 data sources you just posted?To answer your question, yes, I’ve experimented with the different data sources. No. Users of different data sources do not land on the same horses. Even though the data structure of the old PCS file was nearly identical to the Brisnet DRF single file, upon investigation I discovered that the speed and pace figs in the two files were different… different enough to create different user experiences for the Brisnet customer (better) vs. the user experience with the same program for the TSN customer (worse.)

If so then why would someone want to pay for the more expensive files when the cheaper data would do.The thing is, very often cheaper data doesn't do.

At the time, monthly unlimited file download subscriptions for PCS Files were readily available for $59.95 from TSN. If I recall correctly, my typical download bill from Brisnet was running as much as $400 a month. Yet I never once considered switching to TSN. Why not? Anything I might “save” by lowering my data costs was more than made up for by getting a higher (verifiable) flat bet roi out of my key factors.

In 2009, after acquiring Brisnet, CDI/Twinspires announced they would be eliminating TSN (and grandfathering in the TSN PCS file subscribers who hadn’t cancelled their subscriptions. "Grandfathered in" subscribers would be offered .MCP files at the same price through year end 2010.) However, they also announced they could not guarantee availability at that price beyond year end 2010. This sent me scrambling for a new data supplier. (What if CDI/Twinspires decided to discontinue comma delimited data files altogether?) Where would hundreds of other players including myself be then?

Looking back, this was actually a fortunate turn of events because it led me to HDW.

Aside from offering (my opinion) better speed and pace figs and “cleaner” data to begin with than Brisnet… Ron Tiller at HDW was willing to work with me. He had initially sent me a “basic” JCapper file spec that appeared more than adequate for what I wanted to do. However, over the past year I have been able to convince Ron to insert quite a few custom data items into the HDW JCapper binary race file spec. This has enabled me to write algorithms designed to take specific advantage of the custom data items Ron was kind enough to insert into the files HDW produces for us. There’s no other way to say it. Because of Ron’s willingness to work with me, and because of the custom data items, the JCapper Platinum program produces a superior factor set for my HDW data customers vs. what it can produce for my Brisnet data customers.

If not, then shouldn't the best performing data source be the default one?No. Last year when I began offering HDW data subscriptions, I promised the JCapper user community that I wouldn’t mandate they switch over to HDW files.

While a data subscription might make sense to a guy like me, I know that not everybody plays daily. Some players are weekend warriors. For others, it might be just one or two days a month – family obligations permitting. One of my earliest customers plays just one meet a year that happens to be running right now (weather permitting.) :D

Even though HDW offers my customers what I clearly see as a better user experience, I’d rather my customers have choices when it comes to things like files and data providers.

-jp

.

[Light]

Jeff P

Thanks for the explanation. Coincidentally after reading your explanation, I went to your message board where the latest topic is about a very very low ROI using HDW at Aqu so far this year. I have a hard time believing that the Bris $1 files would do worse than that.

[Jeff P]

RE: HDW better than $1 Bris files

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jeff P

Thanks for the explanation. Coincidentally after reading your explanation, I went to your message board where the latest topic is about a very very low ROI using HDW at Aqu so far this year. I have a hard time believing that the Bris $1 files would do worse than that.

That discusssion on my board here (http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/TopicReader.asp?topic=924&forum=General) had nothing to do with key factor roi comparisons between HDW and Brisnet files.

The point being made by the original poster on my board was this:

For the month of Jan 2011, a flat $2.00 win bet on every starter (no handicapping whatsoever; just bet 'em all) at AQU returned just $0.64 for every $1.00 wagered.

Here's what the data looks like...

Jan 2011 AQU Only:
query start: 2/17/2011 11:25:15 AM
query end: 2/17/2011 11:25:18 AM
elapsed time: 3 seconds

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE [YEAR]=2011
AND TRACK='AQU'
AND INTSURFACE=2


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 2475.50 3029.70 2939.80
Bet -3868.00 -3868.00 -3868.00
Gain -1392.50 -838.30 -928.20

Wins 254 507 757
Plays 1934 1934 1934
PCT .1313 .2622 .3914

ROI 0.6400 0.7833 0.7600
Avg Mut 9.75 5.98 3.88

This is a significantly lower player expectation than is typically seen in larger data samples.

Jan 2011 - ALL Tracks:
Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE [YEAR]=2011


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 55778.00 54528.20 53776.80
Bet -70840.00 -70840.00 -70840.00
Gain -15062.00 -16311.80 -17063.20

Wins 4272 8518 12574
Plays 35420 35420 35420
PCT .1206 .2405 .3550

ROI 0.7874 0.7697 0.7591
Avg Mut 13.06 6.40 4.28


Make sense now?

-jp

.

[Light]

OK, but what do you get using the same criteria with the $1 Bris files for Aqu 2011. I'd still be surprised if its worse.

[Charli125]

OK, but what do you get using the same criteria with the $1 Bris files. I'd still be surprised if its worse.

It will be exactly the same, the results shown were for an across the board bet on EVERY horse that ran.

[Light]

And what is the point of that?

[Charli125]

And what is the point of that?

It was posted on the jcapper board for discussion because it stands out. What makes it stand out is what Jeff said above, "This is a significantly lower player expectation than is typically seen in larger data samples."

You can see the average mutuel went from 13.06 to 9.75 when comparing all races to just the Aqueduct Inner.

No real point other than it stands out and likely means that favorites are winning at a higher clip than the norm.

[Light]

If you've been playing Aqu, you would know that Aqu had a streak in January where It could have easily been labeled the chalkiest track in America.No software required.

Any rate, it would be nice to see Jeff's performance data between HDW and the $1 Bris files that have led him to conclude the superiority of HDW.

[ArlJim78]

If you've been playing Aqu, you would know that Aqu had a streak in January where It could have easily been labeled the chalkiest track in America.No software required.

now you've caught on. nobody claimed that software was required, it was just an observation that someone made.

[Charli125]

If you've been playing Aqu, you would know that Aqu had a streak in January where It could have easily been labeled the chalkiest track in America.No software required.
Nobody is saying you need software to know this. You went and quoted another message board and I'm just trying to explain what you saw because it had nothing to do with data types. It had nothing to do with jcapper either. It was just about Aqueduct.

Any rate, it would be nice to see Jeff's performance data between HDW and the $1 Bris files that have led him to conclude the superiority of HDW.
I'll leave that one up to Jeff.

[Capper Al]

Jeff, and everyone who answered on behalf of Jcapper, thanks for your responses. It's good to hear about a satisfied racing community built around a software product. It looks like one might have to be a bit of a high roller to absorb the cost of such a system. I'm a low roller and rarely put out over $15.00 a race, usually around $10.00, and am only a weekend warrior to boot.

[Lasix67]

Darn that cat is out of the bag :bang:

[Capper Al]

That they are sporting two teams in the P.A.I.H.L. Contest (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=78756) and those two teams, if my math is correct, are currently sitting ONE TWO overall...and except for one or two other teams, the two JCapper teams are ONE TWO by a pretty impressive margin...

In my book, no better advertisement for a handicapping program...I may just have to work something out with Jeff so that I can get my hands on a copy in exchange for some free advertising... :lol:

PS. Team PaceAdvantage (my team, team #31) is currently in first place in our division...well behind JCapper overall, but hey, we're in first place in our division... :lol:

You jinxed them. Neither JCap team won their division this week in the P.A.I.H. contest. :lol:

Go Cappers!

[dkithore]

New Pace Swings

Those of you looking for long shot plays may want to give a serious look at Dave's Newpace Audio/video. Today (Feb 19th) I had two long shot plays. One I missed and one I caught.

At Sam Houston Race #4, #2 slipped from my fingers (literally), my hand shook and slipped on the key board as I attempted to press the "submit" button. The race had already started. It was 50-1. He won and paid $102. (He was no. 2 Late for those familiar with his material).

However, I caught 29 to 1 in the the Sam Houston race #8, no. 2 again won the steaks race. Paid $60. I am staggered at the possibility of what results you can produce with this NewPace approach.


DK

[JustRalph]

You jinxed them. Neither JCap team won their division this week in the P.A.I.H. contest. :lol:

Go Cappers!

No worries. I know a couple jcaps that caught that 77 dollar horse at Tampa Friday........it's all good.......

[Capper Al]

No worries. I know a couple jcaps that caught that 77 dollar horse at Tampa Friday........it's all good.......

I had my worse day in the EPFHL contest on Preakness day this year, and it was my most profitable day of the year with real money for me this year. In the end it's the real money that counts that $77.00 horse.

[judd]

are we getting fat?