Exacta feedback needed

[RichieP]

If anyone can help me:

I am tracking an exacta method (multiple tracks, no models, profiles, no NYRA or Socal etc just the individual race at hand) using 2 bets per race. To give an idea of the volume in the last 5 days I have bet 108 races (216 wagers) and have connected 18 times with the ROI very positive.

My question is are there any players (profitable only please!) playing this way who could give me an idea of an expected hit rate. because it involves exactas and not just the winner do I need like hundreds and hundreds of races before the result becomes "meaningful"? 2 exacta bets per race, no more no less.

Also (for rebate players http://paceandcap.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif) is it true that exacta wagers enable one to get a bigger rebate than those who play W/P/S? Any feedback (can be done via PM if need be) on a good rebate shop if I were to put say $1,500 a week (to start) through their windows ALL exacta play?

Thanks in advance for any and all help with my questions http://paceandcap.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif

Musica:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QljDNDxQLXc

[Track Collector]

If anyone can help me:

I am tracking an exacta method (multiple tracks, no models, profiles, no NYRA or Socal etc just the individual race at hand) using 2 bets per race. To give an idea of the volume in the last 5 days I have bet 108 races (216 wagers) and have connected 18 times with the ROI very positive.

My question is are there any players (profitable only please!) playing this way who could give me an idea of an expected hit rate. because it involves exactas and not just the winner do I need like hundreds and hundreds of races before the result becomes "meaningful"? 2 exacta bets per race, no more no less.

Also (for rebate players http://paceandcap.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif) is it true that exacta wagers enable one to get a bigger rebate than those who play W/P/S? Any feedback (can be done via PM if need be) on a good rebate shop if I were to put say $1,500 a week (to start) through their windows ALL exacta play?

Thanks in advance for any and all help with my questions http://paceandcap.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif

Musica:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QljDNDxQLXc

If you listen to the voices of the experienced who have gone before you, they will tell you that with the hit rate around 8.3%, you will need thousands of wagers (or plays) before you will have a reasonable idea as to whether or not your method is profitable long term. (As an interesting experiment, remove your highest two payoffs and see what that does to your profitability. Even it is truly profitable long-term, any method with a hit rate in the neighborhood of 8.3% or 18/216 is going to be subject to long losing streaks and/or periods of low ROI that will try your patience and lead you to question your methodology.

For the same track, exacta rebates are typically higher than the WPS rebate rates because their takeout rate is higher. The higher the takeout, the more a rebate establishment has to give back to the players.

[Ray2000]

Playing Harness, 159291 races 2007-to date, $1 Exacta Part Wheel a/bc

Wagered Returned Net ROI Max Hits Strike Rate Ave
$318,582 $327,271 $8,689 2.7% $699 21886 13.7% $14.95

[RichieP]

If you listen to the voices of the experienced who have gone before you, they will tell you that with the hit rate around 8.3%, you will need thousands of wagers (or plays) before you will have a reasonable idea as to whether or not your method is profitable long term. (As an interesting experiment, remove your highest two payoffs and see what that does to your profitability. Even it is truly profitable long-term, any method with a hit rate in the neighborhood of 8.3% or 18/216 is going to be subject to long losing streaks and/or periods of low ROI that will try your patience and lead you to question your methodology.



TC
Thank you for the feedback. I had a feeling this is going to have to be exposed to thousands of races like you said.

I tried what you said about removing the 2 highest paying "hits" through yesterdays play (added another 19 races to opening posts total with 2 "hits).

Removing the 2 largest exacta hits I now have 127 races = 254 wagers = $508.00

Return is $715.60 after taking out the 2 big ones. I'll check back after like 500 races (1000 wagers) to see if I am still standing :)

[RichieP]

Playing Harness, 159291 races 2007-to date, $1 Exacta Part Wheel a/bc

Wagered Returned Net ROI Max Hits Strike Rate Ave
$318,582 $327,271 $8,689 2.7% $699 21886 13.7% $14.95


Wow thank you Ray! That is exactly the kind of data I was looking for. 2 bets per race for a TON of races. I really appreciate the feedback man :ThmbUp:

[PICSIX]

Playing Harness, 159291 races 2007-to date, $1 Exacta Part Wheel a/bc

Wagered Returned Net ROI Max Hits Strike Rate Ave
$318,582 $327,271 $8,689 2.7% $699 21886 13.7% $14.95


Great information Ray! :ThmbUp: Can you run a $1box (a-b-c) as a comparison. I assume the strike rate goes up while the ROI suffers?

Thanks,

Mike

[Ray2000]

Here's the different ways I've looked at betting the Exacta with top 3 picks. All are for $2 Base Bets, meaning, for example, your $2 gets you 1/6th of the $12 Ticket return for 3 box.


Type Wagered Returned Net ROI Max Hits Strike Rate Ave

Ex Str $318,582 $324,296 $5,714 1.8% $1,368 12167 7.6% $26.65
Ex 2Box $318,582 $308,952 $(9,630) -3.0% $684 21220 13.3% $14.56
Ex 3Box $318,582 $296,351 $(22,231) -7.0% $392 48210 30.3% $6.15
Ex ab/bc $318,582 $312,745 $(5,837) -1.8% $749 27776 17.4% $11.26
Ex ab/abc $318,582 $307,960 $(10,622) -3.3% $562 36829 23.1% $8.36



.

[PICSIX]

Here's the different ways I've looked at betting the Exacta with top 3 picks. All are for $2 Base Bets, meaning, for example, your $2 gets you 1/6th of the $12 Ticket return for 3 box.


Type Wagered Returned Net ROI Max Hits Strike Rate Ave

Ex Str $318,582 $324,296 $5,714 1.8% $1,368 12167 7.6% $26.65
Ex 2Box $318,582 $308,952 $(9,630) -3.0% $684 21220 13.3% $14.56
Ex 3Box $318,582 $296,351 $(22,231) -7.0% $392 48210 30.3% $6.15
Ex ab/bc $318,582 $312,745 $(5,837) -1.8% $749 27776 17.4% $11.26
Ex ab/abc $318,582 $307,960 $(10,622) -3.3% $562 36829 23.1% $8.36



.

Thanks again Ray. This, to me, supports the fact that a (long term) player better have a good grip on his win bets before delving into the Exacta Pool. :ThmbUp:

[melman]

Richie----First I am a harness player like Ray. My results over 20,000 races are very similar. My best results are with three exacta plays. AB box and A with C. Expect around a 14% hit rate.

Send a PM to Ian Myers with his new ADW. If you plan on going forward with your all exacta plays the rebate will give you an EFFECTIVE takeout rate the same as WPS real rate. Ian now has driod and ipad betting as well.

Let us know how things are working out for you Richie. With your stated amount of betting you will be happy with the rebate. Best of trips