Tapizar

[MickJ26]

I can't imagine Asmussen keeping Tapizar in California. The Sunland Derby seems like a logical spot.

[cj]

Sunland isn't all that friendly to frontrunners, and especially at route distances.

[MickJ26]

Thanks for the tip, CJ.
Even a second place finish may be enough to get him in the Derby.
At least they can use it as a learning experience going forward with him.

[toussaud]

AT THIS POINT a 3rd place finish in the sunland derby would get him in he has the sham stakes money already. plus he came in 4th in the RBL that's what a 10k check? 3rd in the sunland would pay him about 80k.

[ManeMediaMogul]

Derby? What Derby? Not the Kentucky Derby (G1)?

The horse knows nothing but running off. How is he going to go a mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs running like his tail is on fire?

Please take him off your list and don't wager a penny on him in the future book.

[MickJ26]

He's obviously a young horse with talent.
I presume the objective is to get him in the Derby starting gate.
Yes, I did lose money on him in the Bob Lewis Memorial.

[Grits]

Derby? What Derby? Not the Kentucky Derby (G1)?

The horse knows nothing but running off. How is he going to go a mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs running like his tail is on fire?

Please take him off your list and don't wager a penny on him in the future book.

I'm not sure as to the answer to your query, but you might contact Bob Baffert, and discuss that frontrunner he had by the name of "War Emblem."

How quickly we forget. It IS the Derby.:lol:

[picojim]

AT THIS POINT a 3rd place finish in the sunland derby would get him in he has the sham stakes money already. plus he came in 4th in the RBL that's what a 10k check? 3rd in the sunland would pay him about 80k.

he finished 5th in the RBL

[Market Mover]

I can't imagine Asmussen keeping Tapizar in California. The Sunland Derby seems like a logical spot.


Any understanding of peak form cycles would leave even the most novice of all handicappers to conclude that Tapizar was due for a bounce in the Bob Lewis stks. Even ASMUSSEN himself was quoted as saying the colt was expected to regress. With dirt composition changes to the speedway SA oval, the track had changed quite a bit since he wired them in his last, beating a very mediocre Clubhouse Ride who had the perfect setup but could not gain.

You could tell from his last race in the final sixteenth that he was tired going two turns. And GoGo's demonstrative antics in midstretch only served to mask the colt's fatigue, as visually it seemed as if the jock was getting the most response out of his mount.

Asmussen should not have run Tapizar in that race this past Saturday. He needed a rest, and there were plenty of engagements up the road to try 1 and 1/8th. This was one of his less than memorable training jobs...

[Dahoss9698]

Any understanding of peak form cycles would leave even the most novice of all handicappers to conclude that Tapizar was due for a bounce in the Bob Lewis stks. Even ASMUSSEN himself was quoted as saying the colt was expected to regress. With dirt composition changes to the speedway SA oval, the track had changed quite a bit since he wired them in his last, beating a very mediocre Clubhouse Ride who had the perfect setup but could not gain.

You could tell from his last race in the final sixteenth that he was tired going two turns. And GoGo's demonstrative antics in midstretch only served to mask the colt's fatigue, as visually it seemed as if the jock was getting the most response out of his mount.

Asmussen should not have run Tapizar in that race this past Saturday. He needed a rest, and there were plenty of engagements up the road to try 1 and 1/8th. This was one of his less than memorable training jobs...

Oh gimme a break. Where was all of this brilliant analysis before the race? The horse didn't look like himself at any point in the race and has developed a habit of being headstrong and running off since arriving in California. He was not like this in his races at Churchill. I wonder if there is something physically wrong with him.

Distance isn't the problem, nor is two turns (have you watched his races as a 2 year old?),but his habit of running off is and until they get this taken care of, he has no chance of advancing along the trail. But, if they are able to figure out what the problem is, he can rebound.

I know it's commonplace to overreact, but IMO it's not wise to judge a horse in a race they didn't appear to be themselves in.

[MickJ26]

The Bob Lewis flop nevertheless, he is by Tapit, the distance shouldn't be a problem, not sure about the dam side. He needs an easier spot somewhere else.

[Market Mover]

Oh gimme a break. Where was all of this brilliant analysis before the race? The horse didn't look like himself at any point in the race and has developed a habit of being headstrong and running off since arriving in California. He was not like this in his races at Churchill. I wonder if there is something physically wrong with him.

Distance isn't the problem, nor is two turns (have you watched his races as a 2 year old?),but his habit of running off is and until they get this taken care of, he has no chance of advancing along the trail. But, if they are able to figure out what the problem is, he can rebound.

I know it's commonplace to overreact, but IMO it's not wise to judge a horse in a race they didn't appear to be themselves in.


"Where was all of this brilliant analysis before the race?"

Well, I'm sorry but I was busy at the windows trying to bet AGAINST our 1-5 friend on Saturday.

But Seriously (PC), would you ever play a horse whose trainer openly admits a regression will be seen in the aforementioned race?

http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDczOTI=

“I’m very pleased with him,” Asmussen said. “He had a huge effort in the Sham. He should regress a touch. We leaned on him last time. We wanted him sharp, the way the track was playing. There’s a lot of time to pick it back up.”

[Dahoss9698]

"Where was all of this brilliant analysis before the race?"

Well, I'm sorry but I was busy at the windows trying to bet AGAINST our 1-5 friend on Saturday.

But Seriously (PC), would you ever play a horse whose trainer openly admits a regression will be seen in the aforementioned race?

http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDczOTI=

“I’m very pleased with him,” Asmussen said. “He had a huge effort in the Sham. He should regress a touch. We leaned on him last time. We wanted him sharp, the way the track was playing. There’s a lot of time to pick it back up.”

I would never play a horse at 1/5 under any circumstance. I also give little creedence to trainer speak.

Feel free to address the rest of my post though, when you get the time.

[cj]

The Bob Lewis flop nevertheless, he is by Tapit, the distance shouldn't be a problem, not sure about the dam side. He needs an easier spot somewhere else.

When you see him run, isn't the breeding out the window by now? There is ample evidence of how this horse expends energy.

[Chris G]

I would never play a horse at 1/5 under any circumstance. I also give little creedence to trainer speak.

Feel free to address the rest of my post though, when you get the time.

Do you not believe in form cycles? Or do you not understand them?

Because I don't see why you continue your arguement other than to argue?

The horse was due to regress. Like it or not, the trainer was honest about it.

[Dahoss9698]

Do you not believe in form cycles? Or do you not understand them?

Because I don't see why you continue your arguement other than to argue?

The horse was due to regress. Like it or not, the trainer was honest about it.

I don't believe in the bounce. I also don't listen to trainerspeak. I've done quite well avoiding each.

What happened yesterday was more than a simple regression.

[Charlie D]

very headstrong wasn't he and no real surprise he faded.

[funnsss1]

I see everyone railing on the horse for his bad performance but Im sure the trainer is more to blame than the horse.Asmussens ruined more good 2 and 3 year olds than anyone in the sport.He might win training titles but he does so because of the number of horses he has not his training talent.He would of ruined zenyatta and he did ruin rachel.

[redshift1]

You have to wonder about the future of Tapizar as a racehorse off the RBL effort.

[Dahoss9698]

At this point it seems like everyone is trying to top the previous post. First Asmussen is to blame and ruins horses, now Tapizar's future as a horse is in doubt because he was headstrong, fought the jock for 3/4's of a mile and was empty in the lane?

Really?

[Market Mover]

Do you not believe in form cycles? Or do you not understand them?

Because I don't see why you continue your arguement other than to argue?

The horse was due to regress. Like it or not, the trainer was honest about it.


Indeed Chris G, the understanding of form cycles belongs in a really elementary handicapping book.

No thanks DaHoss. I won't argue just to argue. But I would approach with caution when you see another young horse has just completed a very tough race, and the trainer himself states that a regression is expected.

It's just not worth it. Not at 1-5. Not even at 5-1!

[Market Mover]

Derby? What Derby? Not the Kentucky Derby (G1)?

The horse knows nothing but running off. How is he going to go a mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs running like his tail is on fire?

Please take him off your list and don't wager a penny on him in the future book.


He'd make a good candidate for the Ohio or West Virginia Derbies!! Hey, at least it's a Derby!!

Take that runaway speed and see how far he can take 'em. Like Sinister Minister or Concord Point or Conveyance...

[Market Mover]

I see everyone railing on the horse for his bad performance but Im sure the trainer is more to blame than the horse.Asmussens ruined more good 2 and 3 year olds than anyone in the sport.He might win training titles but he does so because of the number of horses he has not his training talent.He would of ruined zenyatta and he did ruin rachel.


Asmussen kinda messed this one up. Some 3 year olds actually need to be worked in company, to be taught how to be in behind horses, and an ATTEMPT be made at harnessing that runaway speed...

[Dahoss9698]

Indeed Chris G, the understanding of form cycles belongs in a really elementary handicapping book.

No thanks DaHoss. I won't argue just to argue. But I would approach with caution when you see another young horse has just completed a very tough race, and the trainer himself states that a regression is expected.

It's just not worth it. Not at 1-5. Not even at 5-1!

Again, I didn't and would never have bet the horse at 1/5. It has nothing to do with my post. All of your brilliance would have been nice before the race happened. We're all geniuses about what happened after the fact.

But you don't want to argue. You just want to redboard and act like a expert, while extolling the virtues of listening to trainer quotes. Oh the irony!

[Market Mover]

You have to wonder about the future of Tapizar as a racehorse off the RBL effort.


The high head carriage reminds me a lot of another precocious 3 year old, Honour and Glory. Put that big white shadow roll on, white bridle, change the silks, and you wouldn't know the difference at 6 or 7 furlongs!

[Dahoss9698]

I can't believe I fell for this trolling. I must be slipping a bit.

[Market Mover]

When you see him run, isn't the breeding out the window by now? There is ample evidence of how this horse expends energy.


Well, the damside has big problems in the classic distance department. Dam didn't do much or throw much, and 2nd dam's claim to fame was a G2 win as youngster and some stakes placings. Call Now was not a producer. Tapizar's female side comes from the family of millionaire Olympio, who won some minor Derbies in his day, and proved a useful sire of sprinter and miler types. But no offspring noted for a distance propensity...

I wish it was as simple as to say hey, that one there is a Tapit, and he should have no problems with the classic distances. Well, even grandsons of AP Indy can have problems as they go longer if there's no foundation on bottom...

[Dahoss9698]

Lessons in pedigree now. You can't make it up.

[Chris G]

Again, ... All of your brilliance would have been nice before the race happened. We're all geniuses about what happened after the fact.
...You just want to redboard and act like a expert, while extolling the virtues of listening to trainer quotes. Oh the irony!


The trainer quote was out prior to the race.

The form was out there prior to the race.

You don't have to be a genius to have seen either of them.

Was there something wrong with the colt? Quite possibly.

But to tell me form cycle had nothing to do with the result is absurd.

[Market Mover]

Again, I didn't and would never have bet the horse at 1/5. It has nothing to do with my post. All of your brilliance would have been nice before the race happened. We're all geniuses about what happened after the fact.

But you don't want to argue. You just want to redboard and act like a expert, while extolling the virtues of listening to trainer quotes. Oh the irony!


I'm no expert DaHoss. Hardly the expert. But I try to be an expert at beating odds-on favorites like Tapizar!

It's situations like what transpired on Saturday that make you love this game. Opportunity is a wonderful thing.

[Charlie D]

The trainer quote was out prior to the race.

The form was out there prior to the race.

You don't have to be a genius to have seen either of them.

Was there something wrong with the colt? Quite possibly.

But to tell me form cycle had nothing to do with the result is absurd.


And to tell someone or imply that pulling hard for 6f had nothing to do with result or performance is absurd too is it not??

[Market Mover]

I don't believe in the bounce. I also don't listen to trainerspeak. I've done quite well avoiding each.

What happened yesterday was more than a simple regression.


You don't HAVE to believe in the bounce. Because in fantasy world, some horses just keep running better and better with each race. They keep improving and improving until there's no Beyer high enough to accurately gauge the speed figure. And there's no way for a horse to run very hard in one race, and then possibly feel some fatigue and give a less-than-optimal performance in the next race.

Yes, I'm sure this world exists. And they may also have horns on their foreheads. I read about unicorns awhile back...

Without these handicappers, the game would be no fun.:)

[Market Mover]

Lessons in pedigree now. You can't make it up.


Oh I'm sorry, if you don't believe in pedigree either...I don't know why I brought it up! Pedigree and KY Derby?

What possible correlation could there be...?

[Chris G]

And to tell someone or imply that pulling hard for 6f had nothing to do with result or performance is absurd too is it not??

When did I say that?

I didn't.

[Charlie D]

When did I say that?

I didn't.


You're right you didn't. you didn't mention that Tapizar ran light outs for 6f and this had an effect on result, because it does not fit into your form cycle theory.

[Chris G]

And to tell someone or imply that pulling hard for 6f had nothing to do with result or performance is absurd too is it not??

Charlie, Dahoss' arguement was what we knew before the race. We didn't know that Tapizar was going to pull hard for 6f shaking his head prior to the race.

We did know he was likely to regress & highly unlikely to win.

[Market Mover]

And to tell someone or imply that pulling hard for 6f had nothing to do with result or performance is absurd too is it not??


The colt has a weakness. And that weakness is in his mentality.

One could have seen the potential runoff in his last race. Did anyone really expect him to relax off the pace and back off early after what he had shown previously?

We can sit here and make excuses for why a young colt may want to pull for 6 panels, etc etc...but is that what you want in a solid Derby contender?

What's going to happen to Tapizar when Uncle Mo ranges up alongside and then Johnny V decides to unleash hell and let him stride out and throw those front legs into full action?

You'll see Tapizar drop much quicker off your screen than what happened this past Saturday....

[Charlie D]

Charlie, Dahoss' arguement was what we knew before the race. We didn't know that Tapizar was going to pull hard for 6f shaking his head prior to the race.

We did know he was likely to regress & highly unlikely to win.


Your argument is Form cycle was the cause of the poor performance, but does not mention anything about what happened in race and to ignore that is absurb and poor handicapping too imho.

[Grits]

You typed this:

What's going to happen to Tapizar when Uncle Mo ranges up alongside and then Johnny V decides to unleash hell and let him stride out and throw those front legs into full action?

And now, the same guy types this:

I'm no expert DaHoss. Hardly the expert. But I try to be an expert at beating odds-on favorites like Tapizar!

Exactly what do you plan on terming Uncle Mo, if you think Tapizar showed up at odds on?

OKAY . . . . . .:lol:

[Charlie D]

The colt has a weakness. And that weakness is in his mentality.

One could have seen the potential runoff in his last race. Did anyone really expect him to relax off the pace and back off early after what he had shown previously?

We can sit here and make excuses for why a young colt may want to pull for 6 panels, etc etc...but is that what you want in a solid Derby contender?

What's going to happen to Tapizar when Uncle Mo ranges up alongside and then Johnny V decides to unleash hell and let him stride out and throw those front legs into full action?

You'll see Tapizar drop much quicker off your screen than what happened this past Saturday....


You are rigt the Colt has a weakness and that weakness is his ability, he has not shown himself of KD winning ability and needs to improve many lengths.

[Charlie D]

BTW, if i may remind you of some recent occurences. Super Saver, Mine That Bird were both beaten before taking the KD.

So if history is of any use, writing off horses after defeat is not the right thing to do.

[Dahoss9698]

The trainer quote was out prior to the race.

The form was out there prior to the race.

You don't have to be a genius to have seen either of them.

Was there something wrong with the colt? Quite possibly.

But to tell me form cycle had nothing to do with the result is absurd.

Form cycle had nothing to do with the result. Running off and fighting the jockey did.

[Dahoss9698]

Oh I'm sorry, if you don't believe in pedigree either...I don't know why I brought it up! Pedigree and KY Derby?

What possible correlation could there be...?

Oy vey.

[Dahoss9698]

We did know he was likely to regress & highly unlikely to win.

This takes the cake. I expect Ashton Kutcher to show up on my front door any minute and tell me I'm being punk'd.

Highly unlikely to win.....:lol: :lol: :lol:

[Dahoss9698]

The colt has a weakness. And that weakness is in his mentality.

One could have seen the potential runoff in his last race. Did anyone really expect him to relax off the pace and back off early after what he had shown previously?

We can sit here and make excuses for why a young colt may want to pull for 6 panels, etc etc...but is that what you want in a solid Derby contender?

What's going to happen to Tapizar when Uncle Mo ranges up alongside and then Johnny V decides to unleash hell and let him stride out and throw those front legs into full action?

You'll see Tapizar drop much quicker off your screen than what happened this past Saturday....

I'll ask again, did you happen to see Tapizar's races at Churchill? Did he runoff in those races?

[theguarantee]

:lol: I'd love for someone to point to me all the people who posted before the race "Don't bet Tapizar, he's going off form."

I don't really know what else to say to a lot of this stuff, not really worth the time.

[Market Mover]

You typed this:



And now, the same guy types this:



Exactly what do you plan on terming Uncle Mo, if you think Tapizar showed up at odds on?

OKAY . . . . . .:lol:


Uncle Mo odds-on in the Derby? Really?

[Market Mover]

BTW, if i may remind you of some recent occurences. Super Saver, Mine That Bird were both beaten before taking the KD.

So if history is of any use, writing off horses after defeat is not the right thing to do.


KY Derby winners are previously beaten horses all the time.

[Greyfox]

It looked to me that even if Tapizar had stayed back with the pack, and rated well, he would not have won the race.
My crystal ball does not see a KD contender here.

[cj]

KY Derby winners are previously beaten horses all the time.

Well, not always.

[Charlie D]

KY Derby winners are previously beaten horses all the time.

Yep, so it's a bit daft to imply that a defeated horse is not a Derby Contender as Market mover seemed to do here

but is that what you want in a solid Derby contender?





and redshift seemed to do here.

You have to wonder about the future of Tapizar as a racehorse off the RBL effort.

[theguarantee]

^Not sure how you can possibly say that Tapizar would not have won even if he had rated....you might be right about the KD, but to say he wouldn't have won the race if he rated....uhhhhh......maybe, I guess.

[Market Mover]

Yep, so it's a bit daft to imply that a defeated horse is not a Derby Contender as Market mover seemed to do here



and redshift seemed to do here.


like daft as in Daft Punk?

Let me just make it simple for you: Tapizar will NOT win the Kentucky Derby...

Is that Daft enough for you, Punk?:)

[Chris G]

:lol: I'd love for someone to point to me all the people who posted before the race "Don't bet Tapizar, he's going off form."

I don't really know what else to say to a lot of this stuff, not really worth the time.

At 1-5 you needed to be told not to bet the colt? Now that's funny.

[Market Mover]

^Not sure how you can possibly say that Tapizar would not have won even if he had rated....you might be right about the KD, but to say he wouldn't have won the race if he rated....uhhhhh......maybe, I guess.


Like saying Songinaprayer would have wired the Derby had he rated....

Really?

[Charlie D]

At 1-5 you needed to be told not to bet the colt? Now that's funny.

what i find funny is all this after the fact/redboarding stuff that seems to be the horseplayers #1 past time in 21st century

[Chris G]

what i find funny is all this after the fact/redboarding stuff that seems to be the horseplayers #1 past time in 21st century


I didn't redboard. The form was there prior to the race. The quote was there prior to the race. What are you so upset about?

You don't like form cycles, fine. I'm shocked how people are getting so worked up over this colt. Big deal.

[Dahoss9698]

what i find funny is all this after the fact/redboarding stuff that seems to be the horseplayers #1 past time in 21st century

I find it funny also. But hey, whatever gets them by.

[Chris G]

And Charlie, so I'm clear: Tapizar will not win this year's Kentucky Derby.

Hopefully I gave you enough warning.

[theguarantee]

OK, frame it better, "Tapizar will lose, he's going off form." Since so many seemed to know he was going to lose...

Obviously, no one is saying he was a good bet at 1/5...but I didn't read much other than Tapizar will win easily prior to the race.

[Charlie D]

And Charlie, so I'm clear: Tapizar will not win this year's Kentucky Derby.

Hopefully I gave you enough warning.


See, not hard to make a prediction is it.


As implied earlier i don't think he will either unless he improves or the KD comes up weak as dish water, which is not impossible as history shows btw.

[Charlie D]

UK books have Tapizar 33-1 at moment.


what price would he be if Uncle Mo went same road as Boys of Toscanova or he came out next time and did a demolition job on opposition.


Not 33-1 thats for sure.

[MickJ26]

I played Tapizar because I thought he had the best chance to win the race. He already had a race over the track and his main competition was running out of town. If you want to lump me in with the dumb money, that's fine. Tapizar, wherever he turns up, will not be 1-5 again. Hopefully, both Tapizar and Asmussen learned something. Maybe's he's not a Derby horse. But, isn't it better to lose in February than to lose in May?

[PaceAdvantage]

what i find funny is all this after the fact/redboarding stuff that seems to be the horseplayers #1 past time in 21st centuryIt's much easier on the ego. No chance of being wrong.

[Chris G]

I really didn't think it was redboarding. I thought redboarding was taking credit for a win after the fact (whether it was true or not).

In this case, I thought it was just answering the question of why did the colt run poorly.

It just seems even though we have some agreement, we don't agree wholely {I have no idea if that is spelled near correctly}.

[Market Mover]

I really didn't think it was redboarding. I thought redboarding was taking credit for a win after the fact (whether it was true or not).

In this case, I thought it was just answering the question of why did the colt run poorly.

It just seems even though we have some agreement, we don't agree wholely {I have no idea if that is spelled near correctly}.


Hey look we are at five pages for this Tapizar thread now:)

A fine job indeed Gentlemen. This is the kind of dialogue we need for the Derby trail.


And we're just getting warmed up here...

[Charlie D]

Hey look we are at five pages for this Tapizar thread now:)

A fine job indeed Gentlemen. This is the kind of dialogue we need for the Derby trail.


And we're just getting warmed up here...



Yer, but where was this dialogue before Tapizar's race was run

:bang:

[Grits]

Uncle Mo odds-on in the Derby? Really?


Here's some REALLY for you. You're extremely sure of yourself, and a wiseguy, pretty much. Too, you're trying to school gentlemen who've been at this game and at this website a very long time. And any fool would know that given what they've achieved to date, if both remain on the TC trail, Uncle Mo is going to be, in most any race in which he might be facing Tapizar--the lower odds horse at post time. Yet you're comparing the two while telling others, here, that you beat, and don't bet, chalk. Ok. Cool.

Funny, no one said a word about Song And A Prayer, why'd you bring him up? Funny, you're ignoring front running War Emblem who, when the gate flew open, never looked back and surprised every one and his brother paying around $44 Derby Day. Where were you that day with your "schooling?"

Sometimes, sitting off the pace wins, other times closers get it done, and on occasion the frontrunner smokes 'em all. As I'm sure you know.

Again, in post after post you're typing in an attempt to educate the masses here--after the fact. After the race was run. Covering everything from head carriage, mentality, odds, trainer speak, to pedigree. Good luck with this going forward--the after the fact--it doesn't garner a great amount of respect with long seasoned horseplayers. This is something you may want to consider.

The dialogue runs far more smoothly when the opinion is stated before they're loaded in the gate. Not 24+ hours later.

REALLY.

[FenceBored]

You don't HAVE to believe in the bounce. Because in fantasy world, some horses just keep running better and better with each race. They keep improving and improving until there's no Beyer high enough to accurately gauge the speed figure. And there's no way for a horse to run very hard in one race, and then possibly feel some fatigue and give a less-than-optimal performance in the next race.

Yes, I'm sure this world exists. And they may also have horns on their foreheads. I read about unicorns awhile back...

Without these handicappers, the game would be no fun.:)

Wasn't that a Marvin Gaye/Tami Terrell hit?

Ain't no Beyer high enough
Ain't no Sheet fig low enough
Ain't no weight spread wide enough
To keep him [her] from getting the win

[Market Mover]

Here's some REALLY for you. You're extremely sure of yourself, and a wiseguy, pretty much. Too, you're trying to school gentlemen who've been at this game and at this website a very long time. And any fool would know that given what they've achieved to date, if both remain on the TC trail, Uncle Mo is going to be, in most any race in which he might be facing Tapizar--the lower odds horse at post time. Yet you're comparing the two while telling others, here, that you beat, and don't bet, chalk. Ok. Cool.

Funny, no one said a word about Song And A Prayer, why'd you bring him up? Funny, you're ignoring front running War Emblem who, when the gate flew open, never looked back and surprised every one and his brother paying around $44 Derby Day. Where were you that day with your "schooling?"

Sometimes, sitting off the pace wins, other times closers get it done, and on occasion the frontrunner smokes 'em all. As I'm sure you know.

Again, in post after post you're typing in an attempt to educate the masses here--after the fact. After the race was run. Covering everything from head carriage, mentality, odds, trainer speak, to pedigree. Good luck with this going forward--the after the fact--it doesn't garner a great amount of respect with long seasoned horseplayers. This is something you may want to consider.

The dialogue runs far more smoothly when the opinion is stated before they're loaded in the gate. Not 24+ hours later.

REALLY.


Come on Grits, DaHoss and Charlie D don't need you to defend them. I think these two are competent "seasoned horseplayers" themselves.

And you weren't the only one to capitalize on prince's War Emblem at 20-1+. Some actually remembered his broodmare sire Lord at War was a Big Cap winner among other distance stakes. Some thought the Personal Ensign blood through his sire would give him some grit and determination when it came down to deep stretch. Some here hootin' and hollarin' when he roared around that turn in front and Proud Citizen came to him.

Yes, I know, Spend a Buck also wired his Derby. Wire-to-wire Derbies are quite possible. I have followed Derbies for quite a few years and yet I claim to be no expert.

But one thing is for sure: Tapizar will not win the KY Derby.:)

Oh wait, hold on. Is this another post-race analysis?:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/lewis-el-camino-real-and-davis-disappoint

Probably the biggest Derby-related story Saturday was the surrender Tapizar made at 1-5 in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. No one could have anticipated that Tapizar would back up to the point of finishing fifth of seven as he did. But anyone who watched Tapizar win last month’s Sham Stakes knew that a fold of some sort was not out of the question.

On the surface, Tapizar’s win in the Sham was a nice one. He won by open lengths (4 ¼ lengths, to be precise) and ran reasonably fast (98 Beyer Figure). But there was a troubling aspect to Tapizar’s performance in the Sham, and that was how headstrong and insistent on the early lead he was. That is just not a trait found in many, if any, Kentucky Derby winners. Well, Tapizar was even more headstrong in the early running of the Lewis. While he didn’t go as fast as the absurd 19 and change and 42 that was initially posted, his corrected splits of 22.48 and 45.64 were still too fast. It was obvious Tapizar was finished turning for home, and so, too, was his status as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. Tapizar, who took a lot of money in Future Book Derby wagering in Las Vegas right after the Sham, looks more like a candidate for the seven-furlong King’s Bishop. And even then, only maybe.

Of course, Tapizar’s flop in the Lewis wouldn’t be such a big deal if someone else in the race stepped up in a meaningful way. Unfortunately, no one did. I hate to knock Anthony’s Cross, who prevailed by a nose, because he was closest early to Tapizar’s fast fractions and he did produce his best effort yet in his first start with blinkers. But Anthony’s Cross staggered home, covering his last three-eighths of a mile in 38.71, and the preliminary 90 Beyer he earned doesn’t get him close to the discussion of prime Derby candidates. And as for runner-up Riveting Reason, he had no business not getting up what with the way the race set up. Then again, considering Riveting Reason was only 1 for 8 going into the Lewis, we already knew exactly what he could and couldn’t do.


That's Mike Watchmaker's view. And you might not follow him, but I'm sure he didn't land at DRF for being a "seasoned horseplayer."


There's no reason to start the namecalling. I claim to be no expert, Grits. This is a humbling game. But it is a game of opinions. And it is my solid opinion that this son of Tapit will not be in the Winner's Circle come the first Sat. in May.

[Market Mover]

I played Tapizar because I thought he had the best chance to win the race. He already had a race over the track and his main competition was running out of town. If you want to lump me in with the dumb money, that's fine. Tapizar, wherever he turns up, will not be 1-5 again. Hopefully, both Tapizar and Asmussen learned something. Maybe's he's not a Derby horse. But, isn't it better to lose in February than to lose in May?


Not a dumb opinion at all. These situations arise each year as a visually impressive youngster wins in what seems to be a dominating fashion.

As soon as he crossed the finish line in the Sham, I quickly noted that I wanted to follow this colt to his definite favoritism in the next start. He had run a hard race. And there was no secret the SA dirt oval was a highway. I was very unimpressed with the second place finisher, Clubhouse Ride, who had every chance after stalking the speed. PVal angled out and this colt flattened worse than a cheap suit.

And then track maintenance played with the dirt. It was no longer going to allow youngsters to go 1:06 and change for 6. It was going to be less speed favoring.

To be honest with you, I was very surprised he went off 1-5.

[Market Mover]

It looked to me that even if Tapizar had stayed back with the pack, and rated well, he would not have won the race.
My crystal ball does not see a KD contender here.


No need to worry here Greyfox. He's officially out.

http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com/west_points/2011/02/tapizar-injured-off-the-triple-crown-trail.html

[Charlie D]

Darn shame, but at least there is the possibility he may be seen on a race track again.

[Dahoss9698]

No need to worry here Greyfox. He's officially out.

http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com/west_points/2011/02/tapizar-injured-off-the-triple-crown-trail.html
Hmmm....I seem to remember someone suggesting that might be a reason for his performance. Who was that?

Oh gimme a break. Where was all of this brilliant analysis before the race? The horse didn't look like himself at any point in the race and has developed a habit of being headstrong and running off since arriving in California. He was not like this in his races at Churchill. I wonder if there is something physically wrong with him.


So are we to believe that form cycle wasn't the reason for the 5th place finish? In fact, he was injured and that explains the result? Weird...I guess you don't know as much as you think you know. Shocking.

[Dahoss9698]

That's Mike Watchmaker's view. And you might not follow him, but I'm sure he didn't land at DRF for being a "seasoned horseplayer."


Oh my god.

[Market Mover]

Hmmm....I seem to remember someone suggesting that might be a reason for his performance. Who was that?



So are we to believe that form cycle wasn't the reason for the 5th place finish? In fact, he was injured and that explains the result? Weird...I guess you don't know as much as you think you know. Shocking.


Good call DaHoss. But surely the bone chip did not force the crazy running style, did it?

Gotta love betting against these runaway speed types...

[Tom]

Maybe he hurt himself when he bounced! :rolleyes:

[Market Mover]

Maybe he hurt himself when he bounced! :rolleyes:


I'm glad you said it Tom! :jump: :D

[Dahoss9698]

Good call DaHoss. But surely the bone chip did not force the crazy running style, did it?

Gotta love betting against these runaway speed types...

No, but it had to have had an effect on where he finished. You blamed it on form cycle. Now you're switching it up because that lame theory has been debunked.

Kepp trying.

[toussaud]

I don't think he bounced at all, he broke his maiden, by 10 at Churchill, but that his third try (i.e, he found a chariman soft field to beat), then found a pretty easy Sham stakes to win, that was a group of will be claimers by july that he beat, then he runs against one of the horses that beats him in one of the maidens, and lo and behold he Folds. I just think he was beating really weak fields.

[Dahoss9698]

I don't think he bounced at all, he broke his maiden, by 10 at Churchill, but that his third try (i.e, he found a chariman soft field to beat), then found a pretty easy Sham stakes to win, that was a group of will be claimers by july that he beat, then he runs against one of the horses that beats him in one of the maidens, and lo and behold he Folds. I just think he was beating really weak fields.

So being injured had nothing to do with the finish?

[Market Mover]

No, but it had to have had an effect on where he finished. You blamed it on form cycle. Now you're switching it up because that lame theory has been debunked.

Kepp trying.


DaHoss, you sure you know when that bone chip occurred?

I know you don't believe in the bounce. So I guess each animal keeps getting better and better until they break down...

Fiction CAN be fun.

[Market Mover]

So being injured had nothing to do with the finish?


Let's assume the bone chip occurred at the head of the stretch....(now that is one great big assumption..)

But he was ALREADY a beaten horse at that point!!


Even Trevor saw it. And called it as such.

And if Trevor saw it, then I believe it! (Well, anything's better than that Street Sense BC Juvy blunder!)

[Dahoss9698]

DaHoss, you sure you know when that bone chip occurred?

I know you don't believe in the bounce. So I guess each animal keeps getting better and better until they break down...

Fiction CAN be fun.

So can trolling, as you are proving with each and every post.

He finished like a horse that had something wrong physically. We find out he had something wrong physically. Figure it out from there.

[Dahoss9698]

Let's assume the bone chip occurred at the head of the stretch....(now that is one great big assumption..)

But he was ALREADY a beaten horse at that point!!


Even Trevor saw it. And called it as such.

And if Trevor saw it, then I believe it! (Well, anything's better than that Street Sense BC Juvy blunder!)

Why would you assume it happened at the head of the stretch? Stick to pedigree, trainerspeak and Monday morning quarterbacking.

[Greyfox]

No need to worry here Greyfox. He's officially out.

http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com/west_points/2011/02/tapizar-injured-off-the-triple-crown-trail.html

Yes. The bone chip explanation makes sense.
Tapizar got away on the field and the rider had difficulty rating him.
Nevertheless, he was literally inhaled by the field early.
The distance that he was ahead, and the ease with which he was captured,
suggested to me that he's not a Derby horse.
With this new information, I've changed my mind.
Had the bone chip not happened, even battling the rider, he may have won.

What bothers me a bit is Asmussen's comment blaming the horse:

"Asmussen blamed the injury on the horse's attitude. Tapizar was rank during the early running of Saturday's race, insisting that he have the early lead and eagerly straining to run faster even when clear."

Any horse in a race can develop a bone chip problem, whether he's on the front or not. Certainly SA's hard surface might have been part of the reason.
Perhaps, Asmussen's training techniques might have contributed as well.
Who knows? But don't blame the horse.

In the rear view mirror, and now knowing that he was injured, I'd say that we've lost what probably would have been a good KD competitor.

[Market Mover]

So can trolling, as you are proving with each and every post.

He finished like a horse that had something wrong physically. We find out he had something wrong physically. Figure it out from there.


DaHoss, are you following me again? I thought you were just over at the Risen Star thread!

Yeah, he finished alright. Tapizar finished like a tired horse should....shortening stride...

It's a shame this colt was injured. I don't revel in today's announcement at all.

But the way a healthy Tapizar finished up in the Sham was not inspiring...you had to have doubts....

[Dahoss9698]

DaHoss, are you following me again? I thought you were just over at the Risen Star thread!

Yeah, he finished alright. Tapizar finished like a tired horse should....shortening stride...

It's a shame this colt was injured. I don't revel in today's announcement at all.

But the way a healthy Tapizar finished up in the Sham was not inspiring...you had to have doubts....

Am I following you? No, I repsonded to your asinine post. I made one post in the Risen Star thread (not to you) and resisted your trolling attempts in that thread. I wish I had done it in this one.

You win though. I'm not going to waste my time anymore. The uninformed keep making it more and more difficult to actually have discussions and I'm not going to try anymore.

[Chris G]

...
Was there something wrong with the colt? Quite possibly.

...

If not liking his form was reason enough not to bet him, I don't see why that's a problem. But if Dahoss is going to pat people on the back about seeing the injury after the fact, I'll take one. :)

[Market Mover]

If not liking his form was reason enough not to bet him, I don't see why that's a problem. But if Dahoss is going to pat people on the back about seeing the injury after the fact, I'll take one. :)


Double pats on the back for Hawksley Hill, I mean, DaHoss....AND Chris G.... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Market Mover]

Am I following you? No, I repsonded to your asinine post. I made one post in the Risen Star thread (not to you) and resisted your trolling attempts in that thread. I wish I had done it in this one.

You win though. I'm not going to waste my time anymore. The uninformed keep making it more and more difficult to actually have discussions and I'm not going to try anymore.


DaHoss, I am personally requesting that you stay on in these 3 year old threads. Your knowledge and expertise in equine handicapping is tremendously valued.

[Grits]

I claim to be no expert, Grits.

No, M&M, this seems to be exactly what you're attempting to convey. I could surely be wrong, maybe its all in your presentation. Cocksure has its appeal to some, I guess. I'm not one of them, particularly after the fact.

[Cardus]

No, M&M, this seems to be exactly what you're attempting to convey. I could surely be wrong, maybe its all in your presentation. Cocksure has its appeal to some, I guess. I'm not one of them, particularly after the fact.

Yes, it does.

[Market Mover]

Yes, it does.


All in fun Gentlemen, but could we please leave out the anatomical references? I enjoy the camaraderie but I'd feel more at ease if we left out the rooster adjectives ok?

[Cardus]

All in fun Gentlemen, but could we please leave out the anatomical references? I enjoy the camaraderie but I'd feel more at ease if we left out the rooster adjectives ok?

I agree. That Grits is always derailing threads with unnecessary anatomical references. I'll handle this.

[Grits]

All in fun Gentlemen, but could we please leave out the anatomical references? I enjoy the camaraderie but I'd feel more at ease if we left out the rooster adjectives ok?

I wasn't speaking of anatomy, I assure you, I was speaking of tone--they crow earlier and more loudly than all others. You don't know me, and I'm sorry but my thought was not along your line of thought, so let's don't go there, M&M.

Carry-on, much good luck here at PA. And, I'm not a gentleman.

[Grits]

I agree. That Grits is always derailing threads with unnecessary anatomical references. I'll handle this.

LOLOLOLOLOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL:lol: :lol: :lol:
Right, I am aren't I?

[Cardus]

LOLOLOLOLOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL:lol: :lol: :lol:
Right, I am aren't I?

Yes, indeed.

[sammy the sage]

No, M&M, this seems to be exactly what you're attempting to convey. I could surely be wrong, maybe its all in your presentation. Cocksure has its appeal to some, I guess. I'm not one of them, particularly after the fact.

:lol: :D

and just what does appeal to you :p

[PaceAdvantage]

The uninformed keep making it more and more difficult to actually have discussions and I'm not going to try anymore.I have a question. If you truly desire to have an actual discussion, why do you continuously engage those whom you consider "uninfomed?"

[Grits]

:lol: :D

and just what does appeal to you :p

A sense of humor, manners, and quiet confidence, mark a good beginning, if you must know.

EOC, carry on with the thread.

[Dahoss9698]

I have a question. If you truly desire to have an actual discussion, why do you continuously engage those whom you consider "uninfomed?"

Because when I see obvious BS, I try and address it. Some people actually do come here to discuss and learn off each other and when nonsense gets spread around it doesn't really help anyone.

Now I have a question. Are you going to continue to single me out in threads?

[ManeMediaMogul]

Good call DaHoss. But surely the bone chip did not force the crazy running style, did it?

Gotta love betting against these runaway speed types...

Sometimes when horses are sore, they run off...almost like they are running away from the soreness. This could have been a factor in his not settling.

[OntheRail]

Sometimes when horses are sore, they run off...almost like they are running away from the soreness. This could have been a factor in his not settling.
I agree...

[PaceAdvantage]

Because when I see obvious BS, I try and address it. Some people actually do come here to discuss and learn off each other and when nonsense gets spread around it doesn't really help anyone.

Now I have a question. Are you going to continue to single me out in threads?I get a little defensive when you keep posting how virtually everyone around here is uninformed.

I'm sure you understand why that might be....

[Dahoss9698]

I get a little defensive when you keep posting how virtually everyone around here is uninformed.

I'm sure you understand why that might be....

Quite an exaggeration. Since you didn't directly answer I'll assume yes.

[PaceAdvantage]

I wouldn't call replying to you every now and then "singling you out." So my answer is no, I'm not going to continue singling you out. But I also won't NOT reply to you if I feel I have something to say.

[PaceAdvantage]

Quite an exaggeration. Since you didn't directly answer I'll assume yes.Exaggeration? Not sure about that. You have been writing an awful lot about "uninformed" and "non-betting" members...

[Dahoss9698]

Exaggeration? Not sure about that. You have been writing an awful lot about "uninformed" and "non-betting" members...

I guess this is more of that "dialogue" that you've been trying to start up with me right? The fact that you chose to respond here, instead of respond to the "discussion" we were having in pm is very, very telling.

As I said to you in private, look at who began with the uninformed stuff in this thread. As for the other stuff, I have made maybe a handful of mentions of non bettors. Not really "an awful lot" but I guess if you keep exaggerating you can continue to appeal to those you are trying to. I hope it's worth it.

[PaceAdvantage]

I guess this is more of that "dialogue" that you've been trying to start up with me right? The fact that you chose to respond here, instead of respond to the "discussion" we were having in pm is very, very telling.so I was supposed to leave your public comments here unanswered? I can't ****ing win....I'm beginning to understand now....

[Dahoss9698]

so I was supposed to leave your public comments here unanswered? I can't ****ing win....I'm beginning to understand now....

Keep pandering.

[Market Mover]

Keep pandering.


Gentlemen,
The Tapizar thread is closed. Let's wish the colt a speedy recovery and now onto more pertinent future dialogue and discussions involving our common search for the Triple Crown hero(es)....

[PaceAdvantage]

Gentlemen,
The Tapizar thread is closed. Let's wish the colt a speedy recovery and now onto more pertinent future dialogue and discussions involving our common search for the Triple Crown hero(es)....What?

[Show Me the Wire]

War Emblem won the KD and the Preakness with a bone chip.