Market Commentary: the Press is exploitative

[MikeH]

I know this is "Off-topic", but I think it's important...

Several press reports this morning indicate that the US Stock markets are doing poorly. The headline at USA Today, for example, says "Stocks plunge in aftermath."

This is sensationalistic reporting.

In the first hour of trading, the Dow dropped 500, and the Nasdaq dropped 80 (about a 5% drop for each). Given the circumstances, that kind of a drop isn't all that bad.

However, this is what is important:
After the first hour, the markets have stabilized. After the first hour, both the Dow and the Nasdaq came back up a little, and now, after 4 hours of trading, the Dow is down only another 100, and the Nasdaq has dropped another 10 or so. People that felt uncomfortable with their investments in the Stock Market have been able to orderly cash out their stocks with only minimal losses.

I don't see anyone in the press doing "pro forma" calculations on what the drop in the markets would look like without the airline and related companies. American and United are both down 40% (ouch!), Boeing is down 15%. These are clearly pulling the averages much lower than they would otherwise be...

Churchill Downs Inc. is down 1/2 @ 29 1/4, about midway between their 52 week high-low of $36 - $23.
Magna Entertainment is down 3/4 @ 6 1/4, about midway between their 52 week high-low of $8 - $3.
Penn National Gaming is down 2 1/2 @ 15 1/2, somewhat less than midway between their 52 week high-low of $28 - $8.

The press is reporting that the Entertainment Industry as a whole is not doing well today in the market; this might be a good time to buy, as I think that people will turn to Entertainment/Gaming as an escape from the horrors of Tuesday.

The bottom line is: I would NOT be concerned if I had my money in the market (either in individual stocks or in mutual funds.) I would assume that most people reading this Board that are in the market are in it for the long term; in horseplayers' terms, it's about 1-5 that you will lose more if you sell out this week than if you simply "ride it out"...

[MikeH]

As a follow-up to the above post, here is how the markets closed today:

Dow down 680 @ 8900 (down 7%).

Nasdaq down 115 @ 1580 (down 7%).

S&P 500 down 53 @ 1040 (down 5%).

Overall NYSE index down 25 @ 540 (down 5%).
==============================================

So, essentially after the first hour, the markets have stabilized.

This is quite a positive, supportive statement being made by Americans in general, and by the investment community specifically.

I personally thought that the markets would be down about 10% today, so I don't think that we have anything to fear.

Now, if I was Mr. Bin Laden, ....... !!!

[PaceAdvantage]

US markets reacted about the same way European markets reacted in their first trading day after the attack...the funny thing is, CNBC is saying they are getting e-mails blaming the short sellers for all this....unbelievable ignorance....

As if the individual investor buying a few shares in a patriotic move is going to affect the market one way or the other.....and as if the huge funds are going to hold onto airlines and financial companies who were hit hard in the terrorist attack because of patriotism??? It's all about the bottom line to the big boys, however cold that sounds.....business is business....the market is going to go where the market wants to go, and nobody is going to stand in its way....

Despite how bad this sounds, today was GOOD for the markets, in my opinion....a sell off like this is just what this market needed....I still think the Nasdaq has a little more to give, but the quicker we get the capitulation over with, the sooner we can start building a base to move up from....


==PA

[so.cal.fan]

Our market will stabilize as it always does. Just hang tough.
We as gamblers aren't that easily discouraged.
What I want to know, is how can we stop these terrorist groups from making money in our markets? I heard they bought shorts in Munich on insurance and airlines. How can this happen?
The world needs to break them, financially, then physically.

[Tom]

I never left the track just because I lost the daily double.
I'm this for all nine races. Thoose that sold today had to sell to someone-those are the ones that got the deals.
Tom

[Lefty]

The liberal press i.e. democrats want to "hawk" about
a poor economy. They want Bush out next election and
some economically ignorant liberal democrat in. I can't
fig. why they are so liberal but truth is, they are.
The pctg. drop in stocks can't even make top 10 as
"all time" worst.

[PaceGuy]

If you look at history it becomes clear that markets do only one thing after events like this.

They RECOVER.

-pg