Overbetting Certain Stallions

[strapper]

I noticed today a horse at Aqueduct by Smarty Jones got hammered in the betting. Let me preface it by saying Ramon Dominguez was aboard, but still, I thought the low odds was a huge underlay. The horse ran 3rd. I find many of the Smarty Jones have been overbet. I found this same phenomenon with other stallions in the past, namely Fusaichi Pegasus, Mineshaft, and Empire Maker when their progeny began running.

[Market Mover]

I noticed today a horse at Aqueduct by Smarty Jones got hammered in the betting. Let me preface it by saying Ramon Dominguez was aboard, but still, I thought the low odds was a huge underlay. The horse ran 3rd. I find many of the Smarty Jones have been overbet. I found this same phenomenon with other stallions in the past, namely Fusaichi Pegasus, Mineshaft, and Empire Maker when their progeny began running.

Don't forget Unbridled Song's going two turns for the first time, especially at the mile and an eighth distance. Often these have shown a good ability of speed going shorter, and the public pounds these speedball types going two turns, a mile and an eighth, esp. at Saratoga.

Does anyone have stats on the lifetime progeny of Unbridled Song's on dirt going a route of ground?

[MNslappy]

you see this starting to happen with the Bernardini offspring too. secret is well out on that one.

[Market Mover]

you see this starting to happen with the Bernardini offspring too. secret is well out on that one.


He is a tremendous physical specimen. Can any conformational analysts look at this young stallion and tell me if he has any physical weaknesses? And which mares would he NOT go well with?

[Cholly]

Note that horse was owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, and the win pool had been pre-seeded with $5K on Sunrise Smarty...not an uncommon occurrence for a West Point horse. Terry Finley and his partners have a reputation of occasionally supporting their horses at the window.

Was it just me, or did it appear that the other five jockeys in the race were teaming up to make sure Dominguez didn't win. Every time he tried to go somewhere, somebody was closing the hole. Probably just the way it worked out, but sometimes I wonder if the other jockeys don't resent Dominguez' success.

[Linny]

The WPT gang seems to love to bet. With Ramon riding for Hushion (30%) he figured to be bet hard.

When the first Smarty's started running over the summer of their 2yo year they did seem to be overbet, apparently by the Smarty Party crew. I tend to dount that people who "follow" stallions like Smarty are turning out in the betting pools at AQU in mid-February.

The Bernardini's are getting bet, esp. first and second out, but.... Most are with good outfits and if their debut was decent most figure to move up.

[strapper]

While some of the Bernardinis may get overbet, I wouldn't put him in the same catergory with my group of disappointing sires. Bernardini is making the grade.

[Market Mover]

While some of the Bernardinis may get overbet, I wouldn't put him in the same catergory with my group of disappointing sires. Bernardini is making the grade.


And would that group of disappointing sires include:

Ten Most Wanted?
Eddington?
Purge?

[Hanover1]

To me, there is some merit to sizing up pedigree when wagering, especially when younger horses begin to sretch out. Having said that, it is low on my criteria of who I feel has the chance. It isn't the stud who is running, and barns are full of fashionably bred stock that run for tags. I may bite on a first out if works are fresh, and stud has decent % in that area, but yet again, the stars must align.....