Baseball Prospectus 2011 win projections

[Valuist]

Heard this on the radio yesterday. Didn't get them all but managed to write down a few. Here's their win total projections for 2011. Supposedly 25 of the 30 major league teams finished within 2 games of their 2010 projections.

AL East: New York 100 wins, Tampa 98, Boston 89
AL Central: Minnesota 95, Chicago 89
AL West: Texas 91
NL East: Philly 94, Atlanta 91
NL Central: Cincy 93, St. Louis 85 Milw 75 Chicago 70
NL West: San Fan 91 San Diego 90 Colorado 89

I would be shocked if either the Yankees or Tampa reach those numbers and I would play Boston over 89. I also think Philly, with that rotation, is the best bet to win 100 games, not the Yanks. Milwaukee 75 wins? Over on that. San Diego 90 wins this year? Definite under on that one.

[OTM Al]

Interesting. Don't think any of these are that far off. Philly will not win 100 games. They are going to lose a bunch of 1-0, 2-1 games this year because while they have very good pitching, their hitting is awful.

Boston is another highly overrated team. Lester is for real amd Beckett should be fine, but the rest of that staff is badly over rated and they are developing some black holes in their lineup.

Yanks might not make it to 100 but this may be the first year in some time they are not being over bet and really have some value. They look a little rough right now amongst the starters, but this has the look of a team in which ify you aren't ahead when the 6th rolls around, you are going to be in trouble. Have a feeling they will be going all out in July and will make some serious moves.

Tampa will be fun to watch again this year. They are not done yet. 98 may be too high though but 94-5 isn't out of the question.

Texas is a fraud. Too bad you didn't get the numbers for the A's or Angels. Both should be better this year.

I'm a little curious about Detroit this year in the central

Can't say I like Cincinnati, but can't say I like anyone in that division either. West is just about as much a mess as well. Maybe Colorado will get their act together before August.

[PhantomOnTour]

I am trying my best to enjoy this week because it is the last week WITHOUT baseball until the end of the world series...I will make the most of it. Wake me up when baseball is over.

[ElKabong]

the yankees will finish 3rd or worse. Total frauds. They might start well, but watch them falter badly in aug-sept unless they can steal a trade like the Rangers did with Lee in mid season.

Over rated lineup, didn't improve off season
Pettite gone...again, no improvement in the off season
Rivera showed signs vs the Rangers here that he's beatable
A Rod streaks his hair, stares in the clubhouse mirror while applying body lotion to his upper body without blinking.....what a strange place the zoo will be

Again

[castaway01]

the yankees will finish 3rd or worse. Total frauds. They might start well, but watch them falter badly in aug-sept unless they can steal a trade like the Rangers did with Lee in mid season.

Over rated lineup, didn't improve off season
Pettite gone...again, no improvement in the off season
Rivera showed signs vs the Rangers here that he's beatable
A Rod streaks his hair, stares in the clubhouse mirror while applying body lotion to his upper body without blinking.....what a strange place the zoo will be

Again

totally disagree, Yankees will win at least 95....ARod streaks his hair? Seriously, that's why they won't win? I guess everyone I went to high school with should be dead, except they're making big money now. Tampa will be around 85 and Red Sox at 95, but Yankees are the most accurate part.

[Valuist]

totally disagree, Yankees will win at least 95....ARod streaks his hair? Seriously, that's why they won't win? I guess everyone I went to high school with should be dead, except they're making big money now. Tampa will be around 85 and Red Sox at 95, but Yankees are the most accurate part.

So will it be Sabathia and Hughes, and pray for bad weather news?

Who is the 3rd starter? AJ (5.26 ERA) Burnett? Chamberlain? No way do they get 100 wins. They'll be fortunate to get to 93.

[OTM Al]

So will it be Sabathia and Hughes, and pray for bad weather news?

Who is the 3rd starter? AJ (5.26 ERA) Burnett? Chamberlain? No way do they get 100 wins. They'll be fortunate to get to 93.

Many expect moves to be made. Further, with the bullpen as it is, they need to get the game to the 6th ahead and they will be in pretty good shape

[cj's dad]

Go O's

[ElKabong]

IMO, the yanks pen will miss Kerry Wood. And after seeing the Rangers beat up on Rivera back to back nights in Arlington I have doubts about him this late in his career

And are the yanks really ok with Hughes as a #2? Seriously? The guy was smashed around in the ALCS. Not once. Twice. That's their #2? Laughable.

They win 88 to 90 and lucky to do so unless they pull off a Cliff Lee type trade, which I do expect them to do. Any injuries at all to a starter in the rotation and they fall out of the playoff picture. The Central will have some decent contenders for the wild card this season

[ElKabong]

my swag for the races....serious and semi serious contenders listed

AL

Oakland ..........Detroit...................RedSox
Texas..................Minnesota...............Yan ks (big gap from #1 and#2)
Angels.................xxxxxxxxxx..............Jay s (fade after break)
----------------------------------------O's (places 2-4 is all the same)

NL

Giants.................Brewers.................... ..Phils
Rockies...............Reds........................ ...Braves
xxxxxxxx..............Cardinals................... .xxxxxxxxxx

[Valuist]

my swag for the races....serious and semi serious contenders listed

AL

Oakland ..........Detroit...................RedSox
Texas..................Minnesota...............Yan ks (big gap from #1 and#2)
Angels.................xxxxxxxxxx..............Jay s (fade after break)
----------------------------------------O's (places 2-4 is all the same)

NL

Giants.................Brewers.................... ..Phils
Rockies...............Reds........................ ...Braves
xxxxxxxx..............Cardinals................... .xxxxxxxxxx


Interesting take. I like your Brewers call, and you are going out of a limb on that one. Surprised to see you going against your Rangers. They certainly will miss Lee, but they only had him part of last year anyways. I can't see Detroit beating the Twins or White Sox. Agree on Red Sox, Giants and Phils.

[OTM Al]

I liked Detroit too until that little incident yesterday. Now likely Minnesota wins it again and gets swept out of the playoffs. The Red Sox are not as good as they are being given credit for. Lester is very good and Beckett will be fine and Buckholtz is solid as a three, but Lackey and Matsusaka are way overrated. The bullpen is bad though they have triedto improve there. Lineup is strong in many spots but does have holes and there are some injury histories there that make you think there will be breakdowns. They and the Yanks are much closer than many are thinking. Oakland will win the west

[ElKabong]

Interesting take. I like your Brewers call, and you are going out of a limb on that one. Surprised to see you going against your Rangers. They certainly will miss Lee, but they only had him part of last year anyways. I can't see Detroit beating the Twins or White Sox. Agree on Red Sox, Giants and Phils.

Valuist,

jmho, the Rangers might have the 4th best rotation in the west. Or they might be best....The difference between 1 and 4 is small.

I firmly believe that if Lee had gone to NY and not Texas, the R's would have slid to 2nd or 3rd. Lee ate a ton of innings, saved the pen. As it was the set up men were running on fumes in late Sept, thru the playoffs. Lee was able to hand the ball to a closer every 5th day. That was huge.

The innings that CJ and Colby have put up are career #'s. Do they falter under Nolan Ryan's demand to pitch till they drop (like Feldman has done)? I think the probability is there.

After CJ and Colby, what else? Holland? (not ready, needs another pitch and better control)... Hunter? (now that hitters figured out his out pitch was a shoulder high fastball, he no longer has an out pitch)...Webb? Hasn't pitched in years (plural...likely another Rich Harden). They're counting on Kirkman to start. Nuff said.

They'll need career years from pitchers...again.

Ogando is good, but not a starter. The set up men and closers actually look solid. Almost excellent. But my guess is overuse and the heat will get the better of them, which has been the case for 38 of 39 years of R's baseball

Infiels is sold, as is the outfield. I'm still not sold on Josh Hamilton. He's turning 30, only has 2 seasons of 100+ games under his belt. His addiction's a ticking time bomb

Catcher is a question mark.

I like Oakland this year...., plus that org seems willing to pull the trigger on a big trade this year if what they say on mlb tv is honest.

White Sox....originally I put em in 3rd but I think Detroit runs away late with Minnesota pushing hard for the wild card. I just heard about Cabrera, not sure what the outcome is going to be for the Tigers

[Shemp Howard]

The tired, old boob managing the Phillies will invent new ways to lose this season.

[Immanuel Kant]

For your entertainment here are the over/under season win numbers:


ARIZONA 72.0
ATLANTA 88.5
BALTIMORE 74.5
BOSTON 96.0
Cubs 82.0
White Sox 84.5
CINCINNATI 87.0
CLEVELAND 71.0
COLORADO 87.5
DETROIT 83.5
FLORIDA 81.5
HOUSTON 73.5
KANSAS CITY 70.0
Angels 85.0
Dodgers 82.0
MILWAUKEE 84.0
MINNESOTA 87.0
Mets 78.5
Yankees 91.0
OAKLAND 82.5
PHILADELPHIA 97.0
PITTSBURGH 65.5
SAN DIEGO 75.5
SAN FRANCISCO 88.5
SEATTLE 70.0
ST. LOUIS 87.5
TAMPA BAY 86.0
TEXAS 88.5
TORONTO 75.5
WASHINGTON 72.5

[OTM Al]

For your entertainment here are the over/under season win numbers:


ARIZONA 72.0
ATLANTA 88.5
BALTIMORE 74.5
BOSTON 96.0
Cubs 82.0
White Sox 84.5
CINCINNATI 87.0
CLEVELAND 71.0
COLORADO 87.5
DETROIT 83.5
FLORIDA 81.5
HOUSTON 73.5
KANSAS CITY 70.0
Angels 85.0
Dodgers 82.0
MILWAUKEE 84.0
MINNESOTA 87.0
Mets 78.5
Yankees 91.0
OAKLAND 82.5
PHILADELPHIA 97.0
PITTSBURGH 65.5
SAN DIEGO 75.5
SAN FRANCISCO 88.5
SEATTLE 70.0
ST. LOUIS 87.5
TAMPA BAY 86.0
TEXAS 88.5
TORONTO 75.5
WASHINGTON 72.5

The ones that hit me right off
Boston Under
Cincinnati Under
Cleveland Under (Yipes!)
Detroit Over
Mets Under
Yankees Over
Phils Under
Oakland Over

[cj's dad]

I admit to being a loyal O's fan. If i think they are terrible, I say so.

This year, with the addition of Vlad and Derrick Lee, the solid play of Brian Roberts, NIck Markakis, and hopefully the continued improvement of Matt Weiters at catcher, the O's could surprise many.

The team posted a +500 record after the hiring of Showalter. The pitching began to fall in line also. Guthrie, Matucz, Arieta are solid starters.

I think over 74.5 is a winner.

[OTM Al]

I admit to being a loyal O's fan. If i think they are terrible, I say so.

This year, with the addition of Vlad and Derrick Lee, the solid play of Brian Roberts, NIck Markakis, and hopefully the continued improvement of Matt Weiters at catcher, the O's could surprise many.

The team posted a +500 record after the hiring of Showalter. The pitching began to fall in line also. Guthrie, Matucz, Arieta are solid starters.

I think over 74.5 is a winner.

I thought they were going to be better from the get go last year, but it ended up taking Buck to get them playing to that ability. They will be much better again this year. Only reason I didn't list them as an over is the fact that their division it a meat grinder this year. If they were in any other division, I'd say they were around 85 wins. Over is still probably ok as I would imagine .500 may be within view if not achieved.

[Immanuel Kant]

Playing 19 against the Yanks, BoSox and Rays can do serious damage to a pitching staff. I think the Yanks may finally be getting a little long in the tooth, but as a Blue Jay fan since Day 1, I never count NYY out...I think BOS and TAM trade shots at each other all season long...where that leaves the O's and Jays is in a battle for 78 wins max. There's just not enough schedule outside of the division for either team to get to .500

Top end for the O's I believe is 78...tough to play over 74' with so little margin for error. There are better plays on the board IMHO.......

[Immanuel Kant]

Found this prop for those of you who like the O's chances of improvement this year.....


4/1/2011 1:00 PMToronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Wager is on which team will win regular season series between teams listed. Teams must play a Minimum of 15 games vs each other for action. Max wager is $300 .MLB.com for results1007Toronto Blue Jays (http://www.thegreek.com/sports/online/contest.asp?ContestNum=94633796&ContestantNum=94633869)1008Baltimore Orioles (http://www.thegreek.com/sports/online/contest.asp?ContestNum=94633796&ContestantNum=94633870)
Baltimore -110
Toronto -110