View Full Version : Who has accurate speed and pace figures?
jasperson
02-04-2011, 09:55 AM
I am snow bound and things are a little dull so here is a question to get things started. Members of this forum have said so and so's speed figures are inaccurate and so and so's paces figures are inaccurate. As far as I am concerned they all are inaccurate and it is only a matter of degree. I don't have any problem dealing with inaccuracy, because in designing an electronic circuit we have to deal with them all the time. Gains of vacuum tubes and transistors very all over the place and a precision resistor is + or- 5% and they vary with temperature. After making my own speed figures awhile back I understand the problem making them. I think bris and equibase have to many catagories and Beyers make to many adjustments to his data. I like to average the last 3 rateable races in my handicapping, but this has it's drawback also. Sometimes it misses a declining horse or an improving horse in his last race. Speed and pace figures are important in handicapping, but there are other factors like condition, class and sometimes weight.
Capper Al
02-04-2011, 12:20 PM
Amen. There aren't any accurate pace or speed figures. Never ever get worked up over one length between horses in any calculations. The charters aren't that accurate to start with. One needs a comprehensive view of form, class, speed, pace, and magically reading in-between the lines. And all this stuff about figuring a daily variant is only a wild guess. Daily variant guessing is needed, but it is still a wild guess. Sometimes they can be off a lot.
Chris G
02-04-2011, 12:41 PM
I make my own performance figures; that doesn't make them right.
But, I'm comfortable using them. To me that's key.
Sometimes I have a different pattern than say Brown's or Rags, but we may arrive on the same horse as top selection.
If you're going to use figures, I think it's important:
a) to be comfortable w/them
b) to know what went into making them.
CBedo
02-04-2011, 03:45 PM
Pace, speed, or any other type of figures are just measuring tools, and people often forget that measurement means reducing uncertainty, not necessarily eliminating it.
For a good read on the topic, checkout How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business by Douglas Hubbard.
The Bit
02-04-2011, 04:51 PM
I would agree with the above ... knowing how the figures were made is very important. Factors involved etc.
Daily variant guessing is needed, but it is still a wild guess. Sometimes they can be off a lot.
A lot of what you say is true, but the above is not. A wild guess is simply not accurate.
speed
02-04-2011, 05:22 PM
A lot of what you say is true, but the above is not. A wild guess is simply not accurate.
Educated guess
Educated guess
Certainly.
Fastracehorse
02-04-2011, 06:54 PM
I am snow bound and things are a little dull so here is a question to get things started. Members of this forum have said so and so's speed figures are inaccurate and so and so's paces figures are inaccurate. As far as I am concerned they all are inaccurate and it is only a matter of degree. I don't have any problem dealing with inaccuracy, because in designing an electronic circuit we have to deal with them all the time. Gains of vacuum tubes and transistors very all over the place and a precision resistor is + or- 5% and they vary with temperature. After making my own speed figures awhile back I understand the problem making them. I think bris and equibase have to many catagories and Beyers make to many adjustments to his data. I like to average the last 3 rateable races in my handicapping, but this has it's drawback also. Sometimes it misses a declining horse or an improving horse in his last race. Speed and pace figures are important in handicapping, but there are other factors like condition, class and sometimes weight.
don't have drawbacks for the reason u gave
they measure ability of the past - it's up to u to determine form
also, they aren't perfect, but the best tool available to measure ability
i like your vac tube eg.; except that i have +/- 10 % error w/ my figs and i'm fine w/ that
fffastt
Fastracehorse
02-04-2011, 06:56 PM
Amen. There aren't any accurate pace or speed figures. Never ever get worked up over one length between horses in any calculations. The charters aren't that accurate to start with. One needs a comprehensive view of form, class, speed, pace, and magically reading in-between the lines. And all this stuff about figuring a daily variant is only a wild guess. Daily variant guessing is needed, but it is still a wild guess. Sometimes they can be off a lot.
are the best we got Al
they are very accurate
fffastt
Broad Brush
02-04-2011, 07:23 PM
Having made Beyer figures for myself over thirty years ago and pace figs now,
I always chuckle at the notion that they are worthless. Most of the time I assume that people get that opinion because they take them at face value and assume that any horse will duplicate the same number. The way you should view them is simply
as a much better tool than fractional and final times themselves to evaluate
what kind of race a horse ran when including all of the other factors.
Understanding when to bet against them can also be very valuable.
One tip I can give for sure: don't trust beyer figs of horses in turf races
in which they were beaten and lost lengths (to the leaders) from the 3/8 pole to the wire. I won't bother you with the details,but, the figs are not true.
Capper Al
02-04-2011, 08:08 PM
A lot of what you say is true, but the above is not. A wild guess is simply not accurate.
Alright, I'll give you an educated guess that sometimes can be way off but most of the time is in the neighborhood but not exact.
Capper Al
02-04-2011, 08:09 PM
are the best we got Al
they are very accurate
fffastt
They beat real time, minutes and seconds.
I don't think I'm ever way off...maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt it.
Dave Schwartz
02-04-2011, 08:28 PM
IMHO, instead of saying, "There are no accurate speed pace figures" a better way would be, "Speed and pace figures are do not tell the story by themselves."
illinoisbred
02-04-2011, 08:33 PM
I don't think I'm ever way off...maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt it.
I doubt it too.I feel the same in regard to the numbers I craft. Doing this year after year after year,the knowledge and insight gained makes one's confidence pretty firm.
The figures are always right.
The damn horses are often wrong!
Fastracehorse
02-05-2011, 01:05 AM
Having made Beyer figures for myself over thirty years ago and pace figs now,
I always chuckle at the notion that they are worthless. Most of the time I assume that people get that opinion because they take them at face value and assume that any horse will duplicate the same number. The way you should view them is simply
as a much better tool than fractional and final times themselves to evaluate
what kind of race a horse ran when including all of the other factors.
Understanding when to bet against them can also be very valuable.
One tip I can give for sure: don't trust beyer figs of horses in turf races
in which they were beaten and lost lengths (to the leaders) from the 3/8 pole to the wire. I won't bother you with the details,but, the figs are not true.
so i guess u like pace figs better?
fffastt
Fastracehorse
02-05-2011, 01:10 AM
They beat real time, minutes and seconds.
i'd rather observe how horses are strung out in a race than observe teletimer splits to determine the pace
SA dirt can change a full second to the 1/4 w/ comparable horses on seemingly similar days
fffastt
highnote
02-05-2011, 02:13 AM
I used to make my own speed and pace figures. I think they were pretty accurate. I think other people make better ones than I could make.
The value of making your own is that you understand their strengths and weaknesses. When you see a horse that is a standout and you have confidence in your figures you can hit a home run. That is the best part of making your own. The problem I found was that I did not find enough of those opportunities.
Speed and pace figures are accurate because they measure what happened.
The trick is making a measurement of what is going to happen. Speed and pace can give you an idea of who was fastest, but they don't always tell you who is going to be fastest in the next race.
Speed and pace figures are a lot like word processing software. Most of them are good. So try to become an expert in one of them. It's hard to be an expert on all word processors or on all speed figures.
Pick one and stick with it.
ManeMediaMogul
02-05-2011, 05:56 AM
Having made Beyer figures for myself over thirty years ago and pace figs now,
I always chuckle at the notion that they are worthless. Most of the time I assume that people get that opinion because they take them at face value and assume that any horse will duplicate the same number. The way you should view them is simply
as a much better tool than fractional and final times themselves to evaluate
what kind of race a horse ran when including all of the other factors.
Understanding when to bet against them can also be very valuable.
One tip I can give for sure: don't trust beyer figs of horses in turf races
in which they were beaten and lost lengths (to the leaders) from the 3/8 pole to the wire. I won't bother you with the details,but, the figs are not true.
The figures are true but possibly not an accurate gauge of performance. Turf horses who give up ground are not usually good plays anyway.
Capper Al
02-05-2011, 06:13 AM
I don't think I'm ever way off...maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt it.
I understand you do a fine job with your speed ratings, and I'm sure you've learned a lot about speed ratings over the years. This all may be an over reaction to Andy Beyer promoting his figures as the key to racing. Yet my studies still show that speed ratings are the best single factor on their own to picking a winner. The reality is that there is more to account for than just speed when handicapping and a single speed point, one way or another, doesn't have any significances.
ronsmac
02-05-2011, 08:41 AM
The biggest key to accurate speed and pace figures are the runup to the official start and how soon the first to hit the beam quits and the wind velocity and direction. Of course if you time the races from the gate u eliminate the run up but must adjust that distance to your computations. Everyone knows speed of the surface is important, but that's obvious.
JohnGalt1
02-05-2011, 10:29 AM
I make my own using Cynthia's pars to compare track to track and for different distances.
Most of the time they are similar to Bris and Beyer as to which horse is faster, but when mine reveal a different horse, the price is usually better.
But an equally important factor is WHICH pace line to use, and again I want to pick it myself than have someone else do it for me.
I want to have reasonable confidence in a selection since I'm betting MY money.
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