Comeback Winners

[mountainman]

Can somebody post what percentage of winners (in non-turf races) have not started within the preceding 45 days? It's for a blog entry that will (lightly) explore trends from the opening weeks of mnr's initial 2010 meet. (If I could find my Quirin books, I wouldn't need to bother you guys.)

[garyscpa]

The best I can find for you right now is from "Thoroughbred Handicapping State of the Art" page 142, "Layoff horses win only 70 percent of their share of races."

I know that's sort of a backwards answer, but it's the closest I can find. So assuming a field size of 8, "their share" would be 12.5%, but layoff horses only get 8.75%.

[sjk]

I get 16% of winners of non-turf races have not run in a non-turf race in the past 45 days.

Not exactly what you asked but should be close.

[JustRalph]

I get a pretty steady number of only 12 percent who have not started in 45 days, who actually win. This is over several different databases and the only outlier I find over the last three years is one of my databases on Maidens shows the number dropping to about 11.3 percent in a very specialized database I maintain that is related to a jcapper factor. Otherwise around 12 percent across the board.

This is using Bris data.

[Dave Schwartz]

I think you can get what you want from some of the data I used in Episode 3 of Improving Your Game in 10 Minutes or Less: Recency.

Link to Video: http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/horse-handicapping-authority-dave-schwartz-episode-3/


WIN BETS
224-Days Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1 75 11 14.7 $2.09 1.16 1.42 1.33
2 48 9 18.8 $2.23 1.40 1.82 1.61
3 66 7 10.6 $1.10 0.82 0.91 0.83
4 194 23 11.9 $1.53 0.90 1.17 1.05
5 363 43 11.8 $1.81 0.89 1.12 1.07
6 1,073 135 12.6 $1.26 0.96 1.05 0.96
7 3,186 388 12.2 $1.64 0.94 1.07 1.03
8 2,780 336 12.1 $1.62 0.95 1.05 1.02
9 2,920 376 12.9 $1.37 1.00 1.08 1.01
10 3,145 403 12.8 $1.47 0.99 1.04 1.00
11 3,755 441 11.7 $1.39 0.92 0.98 0.94
12 4,624 550 11.9 $1.40 0.93 0.95 0.93
13 6,845 874 12.8 $1.46 1.01 1.01 0.99
14 13,934 1,752 12.6 $1.52 1.01 1.01 1.00
15 7,757 972 12.5 $1.56 1.01 1.01 1.01
16 6,208 798 12.9 $1.62 1.03 1.02 1.03
17 5,186 661 12.7 $1.51 1.02 1.00 1.00
18 5,134 654 12.7 $1.51 1.02 1.00 1.00
19 5,746 768 13.4 $1.44 1.06 1.05 1.02
20 7,955 1,022 12.8 $1.45 1.04 1.00 0.99
21 10,164 1,306 12.8 $1.55 1.03 0.99 1.00
22 6,166 765 12.4 $1.48 0.99 0.96 0.97
23 4,066 548 13.5 $1.50 1.07 1.01 1.01
24 3,407 425 12.5 $1.38 1.00 0.95 0.95
25 3,056 379 12.4 $1.47 0.97 0.97 0.96
26 3,504 454 13.0 $1.38 1.02 0.98 0.97
27 4,443 609 13.7 $1.62 1.09 1.03 1.05
28 6,541 823 12.6 $1.50 1.01 0.97 0.98
29 3,827 508 13.3 $1.57 1.07 1.04 1.04
30 2,556 304 11.9 $1.39 0.94 0.88 0.90
31 2,088 265 12.7 $1.51 1.01 0.94 0.97
32 1,984 261 13.2 $1.53 1.04 0.97 0.99
33 2,110 301 14.3 $1.76 1.12 1.04 1.08
34 2,597 334 12.9 $1.45 1.02 0.96 0.97
35 3,210 445 13.9 $1.64 1.11 1.05 1.07
36 2,150 289 13.4 $1.58 1.07 1.02 1.03
37 1,595 204 12.8 $1.55 1.04 0.99 1.00
38 1,319 191 14.5 $1.54 1.14 1.04 1.05
39 1,153 167 14.5 $1.75 1.15 1.11 1.12
40 1,361 181 13.3 $1.40 1.06 1.02 1.00
41 1,620 195 12.0 $1.53 0.95 0.90 0.93
42 2,154 314 14.6 $1.69 1.17 1.11 1.12
43 1,396 190 13.6 $1.96 1.08 1.01 1.09
44 1,021 130 12.7 $1.39 1.00 0.93 0.94
45 783 77 9.8 $1.19 0.78 0.77 0.77
46 784 101 12.9 $1.69 1.02 1.02 1.04
47 797 115 14.4 $1.44 1.15 1.11 1.07
48 973 152 15.6 $1.80 1.24 1.16 1.18
49 1,128 140 12.4 $1.52 0.99 0.97 0.98
50 795 112 14.1 $1.61 1.12 1.08 1.08
51 619 87 14.1 $1.47 1.12 1.05 1.04
52 535 85 15.9 $1.69 1.24 1.20 1.18
53 492 57 11.6 $1.34 0.91 0.87 0.88
54 509 68 13.4 $1.22 1.06 1.00 0.96
55 633 89 14.1 $1.38 1.14 1.01 1.01
56 864 119 13.8 $1.40 1.11 1.06 1.03
57 530 57 10.8 $1.19 0.86 0.93 0.87
58 388 43 11.1 $1.12 0.89 0.90 0.85
59 358 32 8.9 $0.77 0.71 0.74 0.66
60 329 57 17.3 $3.81 1.38 1.26 1.52
70 3,668 458 12.5 $1.68 1.00 0.98 1.01
90 3,903 401 10.3 $1.39 0.84 0.93 0.90
110 2,426 246 10.1 $1.41 0.82 0.98 0.92
130 1,867 184 9.9 $1.41 0.80 0.99 0.92
150 1,499 146 9.7 $1.14 0.80 1.00 0.88
170 1,443 131 9.1 $1.19 0.73 0.89 0.82
190 1,376 143 10.4 $1.66 0.83 1.06 1.00
210 1,175 106 9.0 $1.25 0.71 0.91 0.83
230 1,018 74 7.3 $0.90 0.57 0.74 0.65
250 830 76 9.2 $1.04 0.73 0.92 0.80
above 185 22 11.9 $0.93 0.93 1.01 0.87

Total 184,389 23,189 12.6 $1.50 1.00 0.97

[therussmeister]

The best I can find for you right now is from "Thoroughbred Handicapping State of the Art" page 142, "Layoff horses win only 70 percent of their share of races."

I know that's sort of a backwards answer, but it's the closest I can find. So assuming a field size of 8, "their share" would be 12.5%, but layoff horses only get 8.75%.
I may be wrong, but I think what he means when he says 70% of fair share is, if for example, layoff horses account for 15% of all entries, they only win 10.5% of all races. (70% of 15%)

[mountainman]

tx very much guys. i found each response helpful.

[garyscpa]

I may be wrong, but I think what he means when he says 70% of fair share is, if for example, layoff horses account for 15% of all entries, they only win 10.5% of all races. (70% of 15%)

That's exactly the same thing.