View Full Version : Machen!
Stillriledup
01-30-2011, 03:42 PM
Hello!
Watch Race 5 today at FG, and yes, this was what the buzz was all about.
Impressive.
That was a very nice paid workout. It showed he is a tractable race horse going two turns, a very important trait to have.
ArlJim78
01-30-2011, 03:56 PM
they've got a real nice one there. the way he handled the situation was impressive.
lamboguy
01-30-2011, 04:02 PM
he is going to get alot better next time! that is a bigtime horse.
phattty
01-30-2011, 04:29 PM
might wanna work on the gate a little....
Mineshaft
01-30-2011, 06:45 PM
horse has loads of ability but didnt beat anybody. His next 2 races should tell us a lot. Hes a little on the inexperienced side but man hes has some talent
Stillriledup
01-30-2011, 07:55 PM
horse has loads of ability but didnt beat anybody. His next 2 races should tell us a lot. Hes a little on the inexperienced side but man hes has some talent
If you knew Usain Bolt before he became famous and you had a race with him in the county park and he beat you by the length of the park, would you say, "im not sure if he's very talented or not, he only beat me"?
Striker
01-30-2011, 08:35 PM
Derby future odds were 100/1 in Vegas before the race on him. Let's see where it goes from here.
Stillriledup
01-30-2011, 08:37 PM
Derby future odds were 100/1 in Vegas before the race on him. Let's see where it goes from here.
Probably 6-1.
Future odds, especially in Vegas, are normally a bad bet. They don't give you 'proper odds', they have like 9 horses who are 6-1, the 'takeout rate' has to be at least 50% if you want futures in Vegas.
Best bet is to just wait till Derby day, the odds are a plenty and you will know for sure you're in the gate.
Mineshaft
01-30-2011, 10:11 PM
If you knew Usain Bolt before he became famous and you had a race with him in the county park and he beat you by the length of the park, would you say, "im not sure if he's very talented or not, he only beat me"?
He beat nobody but that doesnt mean hes not good or has any talent. This horse has talent and then some.
netbet
01-31-2011, 09:48 AM
We may get a better idea of what Machen has been facing in terms of competition.
The 3rd at Fair Grounds today features 3 runners from the January 2nd debut for Machen.
Sour who finished 2nd to Machen, Heiden (4th) and Devil's Hammock (5th) all return today.
depalma113
01-31-2011, 12:22 PM
Hello!
Watch Race 5 today at FG, and yes, this was what the buzz was all about.
Impressive.
6 furlongs in 1:15 3/5? 1:44 3/5 for a mile and 70 yards? He's going to need a lot more than that to be competative with the big boys.
We may get a better idea of what Machen has been facing in terms of competition.
The 3rd at Fair Grounds today features 3 runners from the January 2nd debut for Machen.
Sour who finished 2nd to Machen, Heiden (4th) and Devil's Hammock (5th) all return today.
Sour certainly looked pretty good today.
Mineshaft
01-31-2011, 04:23 PM
76 Beyer.
That might not win a N1X
the little guy
01-31-2011, 04:27 PM
That might not win a N1X
It did yesterday.
toussaud
01-31-2011, 11:19 PM
I follow fair grounds regularly. I always thought beyer, didn't really too much care for fair grounds, they are always low balled. that track is deep, 1:44 and 3/5ths is not slow for a mile and 70. It's not super duper fast, but that's pretty good time there.
I would put it almost on par with calder.. not quite, but almost as far as track variants and time. Imagine those same splits being ran at calder and readjust how you think of the horse.
I follow fair grounds regularly. I always thought beyer, didn't really too much care for fair grounds, they are always low balled. that track is deep, 1:44 and 3/5ths is not slow for a mile and 70. It's not super duper fast, but that's pretty good time there.
I would put it almost on par with calder.. not quite, but almost as far as track variants and time. Imagine those same splits being ran at calder and readjust how you think of the horse.
There is a very good reason why the Beyer is low, and it has nothing to do with any alleged Beyer bias.
R4: 17.5k claimers (off turf), 1:43.02, raw beyer 85, actual beyer 87
R5: Machen, 1:44.60, raw beyer 70, actual beyer 76
R7: 3yoF MSW, 1:44.09, raw beyer 75, actual beyer 77
R9: Alw (off turf), 1 1/16 m, 1:45.94, raw beyer 81, actual beyer 83
It was the slowest route. The track was considered two points slow for all other routes, yet Beyer added 6 to Machen's race. This means it probably should have been given a 72, not a 76.
Still, none of this addresses why the race was so slow. It is painfully obvious, and certainly not indicative of Machen's ability.
Mineshaft
01-31-2011, 11:59 PM
It did yesterday.
Must of been a slow bunch then
Must of been a slow bunch then
Well, those other than the winner are a slow bunch. But again, there is a reason the race was so slow.
PhantomOnTour
02-01-2011, 12:41 AM
The Machen race was run at 1m70 which is a new distance this meet at FG. Three of the four routes on Sunday were run at the 1m70 distance. I no longer make figs for FG...how have the figs for these races been so far?
I also see no reason for FG to run at 1m40, 1m70, and 1 1/16m. They did away with the 1m distance and the short stretch with alternate finish line. That was as good idea, but why not run at 1 1/8m also? These three distances a akin to having a races run at a distances of 6f, 6.25f, and 6.5f.
Makes no sense to me and can lead to confusion for both the starting crew and fig makers.
The Machen race was run at 1m70 which is a new distance this meet at FG. Three of the four routes on Sunday were run at the 1m70 distance. I no longer make figs for FG...how have the figs for these races been so far?
I also see no reason for FG to run at 1m40, 1m70, and 1 1/16m. They did away with the 1m distance and the short stretch with alternate finish line. That was as good idea, but why not run at 1 1/8m also? These three distances a akin to having a races run at a distances of 6f, 6.25f, and 6.5f.
Makes no sense to me and can lead to confusion for both the starting crew and fig makers.
I agree it doesn't make sense to run the three distances, but not about it causing trouble making figures.
Stillriledup
02-19-2011, 05:42 PM
Machen races in about 15 mins at FG in the Risen Star stakes.
toussaud
02-19-2011, 06:03 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A
Stillriledup
02-19-2011, 06:05 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A
They might have run him back too fast.
toussaud
02-19-2011, 06:07 PM
I don't think that's the case beucase I don't think he did all that much running in his last race. I just don't think he's that good. Freak now mucho macho man is a legit derby entrant. Thanks alot machen
Tread
02-19-2011, 06:10 PM
this thread reeks of exposed irrational exuberance
Stillriledup
02-19-2011, 06:13 PM
this thread reeks of exposed irrational exuberance
There's a book about this sort of thing!
depalma113
02-19-2011, 06:17 PM
Like I said before, he needed to be much better than he was in his last to take on the big boys.
I guess he needed to be much better than his last just to take on the little boys.
Jasonm921
02-19-2011, 06:52 PM
Did you see that the pick 3 payed out more than the pick4. Never seen that before. Penalized for singling out Kathmanblu in the first leg.
I wouldn't write Machen off just yet. Wide into a very slow pace isn't really an ideal trip.
Tread
02-19-2011, 09:01 PM
Im gonna go ahead and write him off now. Despite the pace scenario, Rouge Romance was further back and blew by him in the stretch, and was carrying a full length worth of extra weight. Khatmanblu started behind a similiarly slow pace and was able to get by horses.
I don't think he is going to get by the group of horses that finished in front of him in any race, so unless he switches circuits he isn't going to have the earnings to make the Derby. And even if he does, I'm not certain there's anywhere he fits unless he can find a soft race like the Illinois derby and manage to win it to get the $$.
Might he get better by summer? Perhaps, but he clearly is not the animal Rouge Romance is right now at this point, and I don't think many people have Rouge Romance in their top 5, so that aint saying much.
Im gonna go ahead and write him off now. Despite the pace scenario, Rouge Romance was further back and blew by him in the stretch, and was carrying a full length worth of extra weight. Khatmanblu started behind a similiarly slow pace and was able to get by horses.
The horse that saved ground on both turns blew by him?
phattty
02-19-2011, 09:56 PM
still thinking a better start and not having to make so much of a late move may help
Stillriledup
02-19-2011, 10:08 PM
He's a nice horse, a little unsettled, its hard to go 2 turns vs good competition if you're not totally professional. I think they 'rushed' this horse also, they got derby fever after his maiden win and they ran him two times since.
PhantomOnTour
02-20-2011, 12:02 AM
If you are Machen's connections what do you do from here? Push on for the KyDerby and enter him in the LaDby or sit him down for a bit?
I think he deserves another shot vs top 3yr olds, and I would push on and go in the LaDby.
Ocala Mike
02-20-2011, 01:29 AM
Push on! Horse had a bad day at school; he'll learn from it.
Ocala Mike
redshift1
02-20-2011, 01:55 AM
IMO Machen lost all chance with the late break and was further hurt by the slow early fractions. That being said he failed to make up any ground during the latter part of the race and that can't be good sign. The top three finishers looked good though.
I think Machen needs a new path he would need to win one of the major preps to qualify, earnings wise, for the Derby.
Why would you set him down - he's only run three times. What will rest do for him?
PhantomOnTour
02-20-2011, 10:49 AM
Why would you set him down - he's only run three times. What will rest do for him?
Okay, bad choice of words...what i meant was, do you think he's still among the top 3yr olds and a worthy Derby candidate? If not, it makes sense to give him a month or so and point to some other big 3yr old races.
After all, he didn't debut until 3Jan and the Derby will be a bit of a rush job. Curlin is the only recent Derby runner who debuted in his 3yr old season and ran well in it...i think.
PhantomOnTour
02-20-2011, 10:52 AM
Well....Fusaichi debuted on 31Dec I think and he won it so....who knows man!
After all, he didn't debut until 3Jan and the Derby will be a bit of a rush job. Curlin is the only recent Derby runner who debuted in his 3yr old season and ran well in it...i think.
I don't think that is all that important anymore - the quality of Derby horses is not what it used to be. The Derby is fast becoming a joke of a race. I think a break on Drby day is far more impartnat than class or a sound foundation. And this guy closes, so with 20 horses, the pace will likely melt down again and a one-hit wonder will win it. :sleeping:
Tread
02-20-2011, 09:55 PM
The horse that saved ground on both turns blew by him?
You are kidding me with this comment right? He was one path outside of him on either turn. He was in front a length exiting the turn, yet loses by over a length in the end, and it is widening.
Yes, he ran slightly further being one path outside, but the inside horse carried 4 more lbs basically making this factor a wash. Rouge Romance is pulling away at the end of the race, and is first back off the layoff, he is clearly the better horse here.
You are kidding me with this comment right? He was one path outside of him on either turn. He was in front a length exiting the turn, yet loses by over a length in the end, and it is widening.
Yes, he ran slightly further being one path outside, but the inside horse carried 4 more lbs basically making this factor a wash. Rouge Romance is pulling away at the end of the race, and is first back off the layoff, he is clearly the better horse here.
He broke poorly, was jammed up on the first turn while the pace was a crawl, and lost two to three lengths around the turns to the 3rd finisher. I would never say four pounds is equal to to that distance.
Clearly the better horse? We'll see I guess, but it isn't clear to me. I'm hardly saying he is the Derby favorite or anything, but I think he is better than his last looks. He was certainly an underlay, but he won't be next out if it is the La Derby.
PhantomOnTour
02-21-2011, 01:03 AM
Figurewise, Machen rebounded a little in his 2nd try around two turns and against a pretty good field...not too shabby. He improved his figs at every call from his last race, but that should be expected...it was slow.
Yes, he lost ground to a few horses late, but Mucho Macho and Santiva were ahead of him all the way on a soft pace. They are also more seasoned colts at this point. So is Rogue Romance, who is the other one that gained on him in the lane.
He could be tough with a better pace set up and this experience under his belt.
classhandicapper
02-21-2011, 07:16 PM
I have mixed feelings about Machen. I thought he was coming out of a weak ALW race, but he looked like he could easily be a lot more talented than he had shown to date. I sort of feel less optimistic about him now. It wasn't an ideal setup, but he didn't show me anything special.
I actually liked Santiva's performance best. That was a nice wide sweep just as the race picked up and he more or less finished as well as anyone. Then again, I bet him in the race. So maybe I am biased and just think I got the worst of the trip. :lol:
Valuist
02-21-2011, 07:39 PM
I don't think that is all that important anymore - the quality of Derby horses is not what it used to be. The Derby is fast becoming a joke of a race. I think a break on Drby day is far more impartnat than class or a sound foundation. And this guy closes, so with 20 horses, the pace will likely melt down again and a one-hit wonder will win it. :sleeping:
That certainly has been true the past two years. Hard to imagine horses the caliber of Mine that Bird and Super Saver winning the Derby.....unless the competition was pathetic and the track was muddy or sloppy. In any event, hopefully the race won't be as awful as the past 2 years.
20 horses in it almost ensures a crap race.
Anything over 12 is catering to trash horses.
Maybe they could card the Dollar Bill Stakes on the under card - for 3oy who have no talent but dreamers for owners.
Chris G
02-22-2011, 01:08 AM
Since this hasn't been shifted to the Triple Crown section, is this PA's way of saying he's not a TC colt?
:)
Chris G
02-22-2011, 01:20 AM
Since this hasn't been shifted to the Triple Crown section, is this PA's way of saying he's not a TC colt?
:)
I guess not!
:)
Chris G
02-22-2011, 06:01 PM
http://www.drf.com/news/louisiana-derby-looking-risen-star-rematch
From Neil Howard on Machen: "You’re not on par with these other horses yet, but I think it’ll give him more of a fair chance when he does run back with them.”
Howard said Machen would return to training Wednesday, and that a start in the Louisiana Derby was possible. Another colt from the barn, Lecomte Stakes winner Wilkinson, remained on track for that race with a favorable workout on Monday.
Personally, I'd prefer Wilkinson over Machen going in the LA Derby. Grant it, Wilkinson had a perfect trip in his last start, but he got it done.
joanied
02-23-2011, 11:21 AM
Since this hasn't been shifted to the Triple Crown section, is this PA's way of saying he's not a TC colt?
:)
This IS the Triple Crown section :)
kid4rilla
02-23-2011, 11:41 AM
If you knew Usain Bolt before he became famous and you had a race with him in the county park and he beat you by the length of the park, would you say, "im not sure if he's very talented or not, he only beat me"?
Yes
Chris G
02-23-2011, 05:15 PM
This IS the Triple Crown section :)
This was in the racing section prior to the move.
Casino
03-24-2011, 05:24 PM
IMO Machen will improve my pick.
Casino
03-25-2011, 09:17 PM
IMO Machen will improve my pick.
Prado will make the difference.
Tread
03-26-2011, 06:10 PM
He broke poorly, was jammed up on the first turn while the pace was a crawl, and lost two to three lengths around the turns to the 3rd finisher. I would never say four pounds is equal to to that distance.
Clearly the better horse? We'll see I guess, but it isn't clear to me. I'm hardly saying he is the Derby favorite or anything, but I think he is better than his last looks. He was certainly an underlay, but he won't be next out if it is the La Derby.
Please give me more of your excuses for this horse this time. Can't wait to hear them. This is horse is a miler, if that. Once again, they drew away from him once he reached contention.
PaceAdvantage
03-26-2011, 06:38 PM
Please give me more of your excuses for this horse this time. Can't wait to hear them. This is horse is a miler, if that. Once again, they drew away from him once he reached contention.What's with the attitude?
I didn't detect any attitude in CJ's reply to you...unreal...
What's with the attitude?
I didn't detect any attitude in CJ's reply to you...unreal...
Not only that, I said I didn't think Rogue Romance was clearly better. Seeing how he wasn't in the race, or any other race since, what the hell does this prove?
Dahoss9698
03-26-2011, 07:20 PM
Please give me more of your excuses for this horse this time. Can't wait to hear them. This is horse is a miler, if that. Once again, they drew away from him once he reached contention.
This is pretty funny. The guy that falsely claimed Gulfstream had a bias on the turf and then disappeared (shocking) when it was proven wrong now wants to take someone to task.
Tread
03-26-2011, 09:27 PM
This is pretty funny. The guy that falsely claimed Gulfstream had a bias on the turf and then disappeared (shocking) when it was proven wrong now wants to take someone to task.
I never falsely claimed anything. I never said or even remotely implied there was a permanent bias at Gulfstream, I remarked (and backed up with data) on what was happening over the space of a few days where front-end runners had a clear statistical advantage. The track changed and that was the end of it, the rest of that thread was just a bunch of ridiculous arguing and there was no value in continuing it. I'm not obligated to respond to every post.
Track speeds are constantly changing, I have never argued or impled otherwise anywhere. But discovering a bias over a period of a couple days before weather and/or maintenance changes a track can be an important tool.
CJ wanted to engage on a discussion and attack my (clearly correct) opinion here. People fall in love with these horses (Bind too) after one sprint race and aren't ready to eat the crow when they fail at routes. My original point in this thread was not so much that Rouge Romance is better, but that it was time over a month ago to write off Machen for the Triple Crown. I said he wasn't on par with the group of horses who beat him (and Mucho Macho Man beat him again, soundly) in addition to calling out Rogue Romance.
If you want to engage in a discussion with a contrary opinion, thats great, but I find the endless string of excuses you have made for this horse since the beginning of this thread ever since he started trying routes to be ridiculous, and I'm stating so openly.
CJ wanted to engage on a discussion and attack my (clearly correct) opinion here. People fall in love with these horses (Bind too) after one sprint race and aren't ready to eat the crow when they fail at routes. My original point in this thread was not so much that Rouge Romance is better, but that it was time over a month ago to write off Machen for the Triple Crown.
First off, I didn't attack anything, I just stated an opinion. I'll still sleep fine if I was wrong about Machen.
Second, I was only addressing his trip in relation to Rogue Romance as far as I remember. Since he hasn't run again, I don't think your opinion is validated. If your original point was that Machen was not a triple crown horse, try saying it.
I'll ignore the rest of the drivel.
I went back and reread my posts. Of course you greatly exaggerate what I said. I said he was tractable, he didn't have a great trip in the Risen Star, and explained why the Beyer came back very slow in his allowance race. That is pretty much it.
Dahoss9698
03-26-2011, 11:19 PM
I never falsely claimed anything. I never said or even remotely implied there was a permanent bias at Gulfstream, I remarked (and backed up with data) on what was happening over the space of a few days where front-end runners had a clear statistical advantage. The track changed and that was the end of it, the rest of that thread was just a bunch of ridiculous arguing and there was no value in continuing it. I'm not obligated to respond to every post.
Nonsense and you know it. You were wrong, as backed up with data. You even tried to claim it was biased on a Thursday, despite closers winning the day before and when closers won every race the next day (Friday) you disappeared from the thread.
It's the internet and you're like most people. Instead of admitting you were wrong you just never went back to the thread. No big deal, but I found it funny what you were trying to do here.
Stillriledup
04-30-2011, 09:44 PM
Does he have enough cash to make it to the Derby???
Hmmmm...he looked pretty good today. Where is Rogue Romance again?
Tread
04-30-2011, 10:31 PM
Hmmmm...he looked pretty good today. Where is Rogue Romance again?
Yes, well your only hope of making a comparison between Machen and a TC-quality horse is to compare him to one with a broken foot. If you want to claim victory because your horse is still racing and the other is injured, go right ahead. Thanks for the laugh.
I already stated I think Machen would be much better served at a mile or less, and tonight proves the point. If you want to prove the point further, enter him in the KD or Preakness and watch him finish out of the money again.
Yes, well your only hope of making a comparison between Machen and a TC-quality horse is to compare him to one with a broken foot. If you want to claim victory because your horse is still racing and the other is injured, go right ahead. Thanks for the laugh.
I already stated I think Machen would be much better served at a mile or less, and tonight proves the point. If you want to prove the point further, enter him in the KD or Preakness and watch him finish out of the money again.
Please, point me to the post where I said he was a Triple Crown horse.
I said he was better than his 76 Beyer, and I also said his last two trips were far from ideal. I'll take the $15.80, you can keep speculating if he is better than a horse with a bum wheel.
Beachbabe
04-30-2011, 10:41 PM
Does he have enough cash to make it to the Derby???
According to Howard, he wont be pointing to any TC races.
The only race he mentioned was The King's Bishop.
strapper
04-30-2011, 11:04 PM
Machen is going to turn out fine but I would say he's not really a mile & a quarter type even though he closed well in the Derby Trial tonight. A mile to mile & 1/16th would seem to be his gig.
Valuist
05-02-2011, 01:05 PM
Machen was way out past the middle of the track. Really thought the inside was bad on opening day. And as often is the case with a bad inside, speed was lousy. Borel had the one 1 1/16 mile race where he wired on the inside but none of the sprints were won wire to wire.
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