John Doyle wins NHC XII with score of 234.80

[Stillriledup]

:ThmbUp:

Way to go John Doyle!

[Zman179]

Yet another crapshoot winner in a crapshoot contest. Good for him, but I still think they should rename it from "Handicapping Championship" to "Pick Longshots And Hope You Get Lucky Contest".

They'll have 40 NHC contests and will have 40 different winners.

[Stillriledup]

Yep, seems like a new winner every year. :ThmbUp:

[rrpic6]

Yet another crapshoot winner in a crapshoot contest. Good for him, but I still think they should rename it from "Handicapping Championship" to "Pick Longshots And Hope You Get Lucky Contest".

They'll have 40 NHC contests and will have 40 different winners.

Yep, just the U S Open, the Masters, The British Open, the PGA Championship, the Super Bowl, etc. These are professionals of equal skill level. Appreciate that and offer congrats.

RR

[Robert Goren]

Yep, just the U S Open, the Masters, The British Open, the PGA Championship, the Super Bowl, etc. These are professionals of equal skill level. Appreciate that and offer congrats.

RRGive me a break.

[Tom]

You will see many familiar names near the top of many tourneys. It might appear to be a lottery, but the results achieved by so many repeaters would suggest otherwise.

[Johnny V]

From what I saw there was very little publicity for this tournament. I really did not hear anything about it while betting those two days either on the racing channels or anywhere I was watching. Congrats to the winner. A very nice chunk of change.

[Bobzilla]

You will see many familiar names near the top of many tourneys. It might appear to be a lottery, but the results achieved by so many repeaters would suggest otherwise.

Absolutely correct!

Congratulations to all PA board members who qualified for this latest NHC. Looks to me like bcgreg, who was 2nd last year, had a very respectable showing this year as well finishing in the top 6th of the field. Cato put up some decent numbers on the second day. There may very well be others of whom I'm unaware.

[GatetoWire]

Yet another crapshoot winner in a crapshoot contest. Good for him, but I still think they should rename it from "Handicapping Championship" to "Pick Longshots And Hope You Get Lucky Contest".

They'll have 40 NHC contests and will have 40 different winners.

Can anyone tell me why Horseplayers are such a cranky bunch of complainers who think that when they win it's skill but when someone else wins it's luck?

Give me a break.....anyone know anyone outside of a lottery winner that achieved any kind of success through luck?????

This is why most of America can't get out of their own way. They are waiting for someone to hand them success when the only true formula for success is hard work.

[horses4courses]

Can anyone tell me why Horseplayers are such a cranky bunch of complainers who think that when they win it's skill but when someone else wins it's luck?

Give me a break.....anyone know anyone outside of a lottery winner that achieved any kind of success through luck?????

This is why most of America can't get out of their own way. They are waiting for someone to hand them success when the only true formula for success is hard work.

What you say is true.
With horseplayers, though, you have to factor in that huge 3-letter word.
EGO

[Charli125]

Yet another crapshoot winner in a crapshoot contest. Good for him, but I still think they should rename it from "Handicapping Championship" to "Pick Longshots And Hope You Get Lucky Contest".

They'll have 40 NHC contests and will have 40 different winners.

I'll tell you what. John was not throwing darts. I spent a lot of time with him this weekend and he did his homework. He watched replays of every horse in the races he was playing, and was able to do things like identify a horse with the chart comment of "tired". By watching the replay he could tell that the horse got boxed in twice, and had plenty of run. Nothing close to "tired".

He's an excellent handicapper.

[GatetoWire]

I'll tell you what. John was not throwing darts. I spent a lot of time with him this weekend and he did his homework. We watched replays of every horse in the races he was playing, and was able to do things like identify a horse with the chart comment of "tired". By watching the replay he could tell that the horse got boxed in twice, and had plenty of run. Nothing close to "tired".

He's an excellent handicapper.

You mean someone who won a contest beating 304 other players from across North America actually did it with skill and not luck.....cmon.....how could luck not be the only reason he won???? :bang:

People who think that the lucky guy wins these contests don't have a clue of how good these guys really are!!!

[pandy]

They have a cap now on the odds, I think the most you can get is 19-1 on a winner.

[BillW]

They have a cap now on the odds, I think the most you can get is 19-1 on a winner.

$42 for win (20-1) and $22 for place (10-1) = $64 total cap.

[NTamm1215]

Yet another crapshoot winner in a crapshoot contest. Good for him, but I still think they should rename it from "Handicapping Championship" to "Pick Longshots And Hope You Get Lucky Contest".

They'll have 40 NHC contests and will have 40 different winners.

Should have just posted, "I've never done well in contests and am very sour about it."

[JBmadera]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: to all the competitors, great work!

[BillW]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: to all the competitors, great work!

Hear, Hear! Lots of prep work and a tough grind.

[exiles]

I'll tell you what. John was not throwing darts. I spent a lot of time with him this weekend and he did his homework. He watched replays of every horse in the races he was playing, and was able to do things like identify a horse with the chart comment of "tired". By watching the replay he could tell that the horse got boxed in twice, and had plenty of run. Nothing close to "tired".

He's an excellent handicapper.
In this kind of contest you need to throw darts otherwise you have no chance.
It's a LOTTERY.

[Stillriledup]

Here's the thing about Luck vs Skill in these things.

Because its a 2 day tourney, luck plays a huge part in this. The shorter the tourney, the more luck involved. No matter how good you are, in a 2 day tournament, someone who has zero skill can beat you by getting lucky. In a 365 day tournament, skill will always win, if you dont know what you are doing, you have no chance because of the length of the contest.

"Length" Matters. :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

Here's the thing about Luck vs Skill in these things.

Because its a 2 day tourney, luck plays a huge part in this. The shorter the tourney, the more luck involved. No matter how good you are, in a 2 day tournament, someone who has zero skill can beat you by getting lucky. In a 365 day tournament, skill will always win, if you dont know what you are doing, you have no chance because of the length of the contest.

"Length" Matters. :ThmbUp:What's your personal experience when it comes to these contests. I only ask because you are commenting like an expert of sorts.

Same goes for exiles.

[Tom]

If you can't do it, it must be luck?
That's why HTR has a whole separate program called Tour geared towards tournament play.

[parlay]

My experience.
I play one qualifier per year.
I progressed to Vegas once.
Tournaments are tough, but they are what they are.
The money is at the top, which means if you get
behind you have to shoot for prices.
That being said, i believe skill and hard work are
essential to scoring.
I HAVE NOTHING BUT RESPECT FOR THE TOP 30
Sure, we all have stories. We zigged when we should have
zagged. That is were the luck comes in, but regardless we
still sniffed out the live longshot.
Does winning this tournament determine the best capper in
the world? No, but its great fun and a huge acomplishment
to show well.
Congratulations to all the prize winners.

[Light]

Here's the thing about Luck vs Skill in these things.

Because its a 2 day tourney, luck plays a huge part in this. The shorter the tourney, the more luck involved. No matter how good you are, in a 2 day tournament, someone who has zero skill can beat you by getting lucky. In a 365 day tournament, skill will always win, if you dont know what you are doing, you have no chance because of the length of the contest.

"Length" Matters. :ThmbUp:

You are contradicting yourself and here's why:

Your notion that a tournament based on 365 days would be a test of skill is contradicted by your own declaration that the basis for any individual contest day is made up of luck.According to your rule of theory,since a 2 day contest is based on luck,and the whole is made up of the sum of its parts, if you keep the same format for 365 days,the results can only be based on luck as well.

It may come as a surprise to you that there can be a different explanation.The more relevant "lucky" factors are not your selections(or "stabs" as you call them) but the racing cards you are dealt that day and whether they play to your strengths or weaknesses. The other is where you are at in your form cycle as a handicapper.There is luck in the timing of these factors.

I'm pretty sure all handicappers in the tournament "handicapped",their selections. There probably is some "stabbing" very late in the tournament but this would only come from those who are hopelessly beaten,not by anyone in contention.

[Zman179]

Yep, just the U S Open, the Masters, The British Open, the PGA Championship, the Super Bowl, etc. These are professionals of equal skill level. Appreciate that and offer congrats.

Give me a break.

Thank you, Robert. :ThmbUp:

Can anyone tell me why Horseplayers are such a cranky bunch of complainers who think that when they win it's skill but when someone else wins it's luck?

Give me a break.....anyone know anyone outside of a lottery winner that achieved any kind of success through luck?????

This is why most of America can't get out of their own way. They are waiting for someone to hand them success when the only true formula for success is hard work.

Oh get off your high horse already. Are you waiting for applause? Well here you go...clap clap clap...hope you feel better. WHO THE HELL ARE YOU TELLING ME THAT I'M WAITING FOR SOMEONE TO HAND ME SUCCESS?!?!?

I'll tell you what. John was not throwing darts. I spent a lot of time with him this weekend and he did his homework. He watched replays of every horse in the races he was playing, and was able to do things like identify a horse with the chart comment of "tired". By watching the replay he could tell that the horse got boxed in twice, and had plenty of run. Nothing close to "tired".

He's an excellent handicapper.

I'm sure he is an excellent handicapper and I'm not calling his handicapping prowess into question. What I am calling into question is the format of the contest. I just think it's a lot harder to pick five winning 3/1 shots than it is one 20/1, yet they're both treated equally...and that's why many of these tournament players stab at longshots that they would NEVER put actual money on. I'm happy that he won and that he's receiving a potentially life-changing sum, but I think the NHC is more about luck than skill.

Should have just posted, "I've never done well in contests and am very sour about it."

Yes, all two of them. Sorry, but I don't go travelling across the country playing contest after contest hoping to qualify for a Vegas contest that I might win. I just do irresponsible things during my days off like take care of my family and spend time with my wife. Oh, if I only had a life. Woe is me. Maybe if I was more like you I'd feel so much better about myself. :rolleyes:

[Stillriledup]

What's your personal experience when it comes to these contests. I only ask because you are commenting like an expert of sorts.

Same goes for exiles.

I've been in tournaments, not too many of them, but i've been there a few times.

[Stillriledup]

You are contradicting yourself and here's why:

Your notion that a tournament based on 365 days would be a test of skill is contradicted by your own declaration that the basis for any individual contest day is made up of luck.According to your rule of theory,since a 2 day contest is based on luck,and the whole is made up of the sum of its parts, if you keep the same format for 365 days,the results can only be based on luck as well.

It may come as a surprise to you that there can be a different explanation.The more relevant "lucky" factors are not your selections(or "stabs" as you call them) but the racing cards you are dealt that day and whether they play to your strengths or weaknesses. The other is where you are at in your form cycle as a handicapper.There is luck in the timing of these factors.

I'm pretty sure all handicappers in the tournament "handicapped",their selections. There probably is some "stabbing" very late in the tournament but this would only come from those who are hopelessly beaten,not by anyone in contention.

I say that a 365 day contest is skill because if a stabber catches a 40-1 winner on day one, that's not going to get him placed into the tourney, he has to do it over and over again in order to survive and finish in the top 10. In a 2 day format, he can catch one stab on a lucky number and hit the board. The shortness of the tourney protects his one 40-1 shot, it makes any individual longshot matter that much more. In a long contest, the weak handicappers will get weeded out. Its the same thing as real life handicapping. Anyone can have a winning 2 days, even the worst horseplayers in america will win on occasion, but will those same horseplayers show a profit after 1 year? Probably not.

[Zman179]

I say that a 365 day contest is skill because if a stabber catches a 40-1 winner on day one, that's not going to get him placed into the tourney, he has to do it over and over again in order to survive and finish in the top 10. In a 2 day format, he can catch one stab on a lucky number and hit the board. The shortness of the tourney protects his one 40-1 shot, it makes any individual longshot matter that much more. In a long contest, the weak handicappers will get weeded out. Its the same thing as real life handicapping. Anyone can have a winning 2 days, even the worst horseplayers in america will win on occasion, but will those same horseplayrers show a profit after 1 year? Probably not.

I fully agree. Spot on.

[trackrat59]

Can someone explain the tourney? Like how much of a bankroll? I take it they pre select the races everyone will be betting. Is it just bet to win?

Wondering how it's all laid out?

Thanks

[Bobzilla]

Can someone explain the tourney? Like how much of a bankroll? I take it they pre select the races everyone will be betting. Is it just bet to win?

Wondering how it's all laid out?

Thanks

15 $2.00 Win/Place bets on both days of the contest. 8 of the 15 races are mandatory races and the other 7 are of your own chosing.

[trackrat59]

15 $2.00 Win/Place bets on both days of the contest. 8 of the 15 races are mandatory races and the other 7 are of your own chosing.

Thanks very much. That's pretty cool. I thought it would be much more complicated.

[mistergee]

I guess its legal but the thing I hate about most of these contests is when for example, mary smith, harry smith, john smith, and tom smith each enter the same contest. get 3 entries each and john smith is really doing all the picking for the now 12 entries and isnt handicapping any longer but is just spreading picks amongst the 12 entries and some of the crap sticks

[PhantomOnTour]

Can anyone tell me why Horseplayers are such a cranky bunch of complainers who think that when they win it's skill but when someone else wins it's luck?

Give me a break.....anyone know anyone outside of a lottery winner that achieved any kind of success through luck?????

This is why most of America can't get out of their own way. They are waiting for someone to hand them success when the only true formula for success is hard work.
That about sums it up for me :ThmbUp:

[Light]

In a 2 day format, he can catch one stab on a lucky number and hit the board.

No he cant. There is a cap of $42 win and $22 place. You're going to have to do a lot more "lucky stabbing" to win it or hit the board.What's the odds of that? Astronomical via "luck" or "stabbing".

[Light]

In a long contest, the weak handicappers will get weeded out.

Not necessarily true and you are totally missing the boat.

In a 2 day contest,what you just saw was a snapshot of how 305 people did in 2 days.

In a 365 day contest you will see how x number of people did in the course of 365 days.

In a 50 year contest,you will see how x number of people did in the course of 50 years.

Which one is luck and which one is skill? The answer is the same for all. The winner of the 50 year contest is not any luckier or skilled than the winner of the 2 day contest.Time is irrelevant.

[Bobzilla]

It may come as a surprise to you that there can be a different explanation.The more relevant "lucky" factors are not your selections(or "stabs" as you call them) but the racing cards you are dealt that day and whether they play to your strengths or weaknesses. The other is where you are at in your form cycle as a handicapper.There is luck in the timing of these factors.

I'm pretty sure all handicappers in the tournament "handicapped",their selections. There probably is some "stabbing" very late in the tournament but this would only come from those who are hopelessly beaten,not by anyone in contention.

Good post Light. These two paragraphs sum up nicely the true extent to which the role of luck plays in the NHC. The best tournament players, such as those who have performed well in this event over the years, are those who can best capitalize when presented with the opportunities unique for them as individual handicappers. Whether or not these opportunities will be amply available over an arbitrary two day time span is dependant on chance. How well the handicapper recognizes the opportunities that may be available is dependent on his/her current form and sense of awareness. That's where luck ceases to play a role in the outcome of an NHC. The rest is the handicapper's skill in identifying the kind of opportunities for which to look. Some are better at it than most.

[Light]

Stillriledup

I would also like to point out that the longer a contest (like your 365 day one) the more conducive it is to stabbing.One has plenty of time to reach for the moon and plenty of opportunities compared to a short 2 day contest where there is much less room for error. If I was in your 1year contest,all I would do is bet the longest shot on the board till it eventually hit.Keep doing that for most of the contest and only bear down at the end. And when you hand me the trophy,I could honestly tell you "it was all luck".

[Stillriledup]

Stillriledup

I would also like to point out that the longer a contest (like your 365 day one) the more conducive it is to stabbing.One has plenty of time to reach for the moon and plenty of opportunities compared to a short 2 day contest where there is much less room for error. If I was in your 1year contest,all I would do is bet the longest shot on the board till it eventually hit.Keep doing that for a most of the contest and only bear down at the end. And when you hand me the trophy,I could honestly tell you "it was all luck".

There's less room for error, which means if the little old lady from Pasadena gets lucky with her 40-1 shot, how can you overcome her in only 2 days? In a 365 day tournament, there is room for error, you have much more time to 'catch' the stabber, in a 2 day tourney, the stab that beats you is probably going to prove fatal.

[Stillriledup]

How about a new idea for the NHC.

Instead of getting a few hundred people in a room for 2 days of stabbing, how about giving each handicapper 30 bets for the entire year of 2011 and the highest bankroll on Dec 31, 2011 is the winner?

This way, you get 30 picks and you can actually bet 30 races you like (i know, novel concept) instead of forcing bets on races you dont want to play.

:ThmbUp:

[bigmack]

How about a new idea for the NHC.

Instead of getting a few hundred people in a room for 2 days of stabbing, how about giving each handicapper 30 bets for the entire year of 2011 and the highest bankroll on Dec 31, 2011 is the winner?

This way, you get 30 picks and you can actually bet 30 races you like (i know, novel concept) instead of forcing bets on races you dont want to play.
How 'bout you come to terms with the fact the format ain't for you and let others decide how to run the tournament?

Either you're green with envy or you don't have the wherewithall to start your own tournament lasting 12 months. :eek:

[Stillriledup]

How 'bout you come to terms with the fact the format ain't for you and let others decide how to run the tournament?

Either you're green with envy or you don't have the wherewithall to start your own tournament lasting 12 months. :eek:

Im just trying to make a suggestion, its got nothing to do with envy or wherewithall.

[bigmack]

Im just trying to make a suggestion, its got nothing to do with envy or wherewithall.
With all due respect, a year long tournament would be as popular as a bed bug.

I don't know if your portrayal of "stabbing" is an accurate one for these types of events. Were you able to read Tom's post about familiar names appearing at the top of the leaderboard year after year? That goes against your theory of stabbing. (Not to say it isn't done)

[Stillriledup]

With all due respect, a year long tournament would be as popular as a bed bug.

I don't know if your portrayal of "stabbing" is an accurate one for these types of events. Were you able to read Tom's post about familiar names appearing at the top of the leaderboard year after year? That goes against your theory of stabbing. (Not to say it isn't done)

Yes, i know, people don't have the patience to grind out a year to find out who's the best when you can find out who's the best in 2 days.

The entire tournament isnt all about stabbing, but because its 2 days, there is some element of stabbing. Every player in this tourney, who is behind with one or 2 races left to play, is stabbing...every one of them. If you're not in the top 10, you're stabbing, which means 90 percent of the players in this tourney are stabbing on at least one pick, the pick at the end when they know they're behind.

There's some element of skill, but even the most skillful players are forced to adapt to it being 2 days and not 200. There's a different way to play a 2 day tourney than if you were in hypothetical one year tourney.

[Light]

There's less room for error, which means if the little old lady from Pasadena gets lucky with her 40-1 shot, how can you overcome her in only 2 days?


Follow along with the math if you can. Your little old lady hits a 40-1 shot. Okay,lets say she stabbed. She gets capped at $42 win and $22 place. She now has a total of $64. You need at least $150 in this contest to finish on the board (30th place).

So tell me what this little old lady is going to do now? She takes your advice and continues stabbing. No handicapping because that would take away stabbers. She has to get another "capped" horse. At least one a day in a 2 day contest.She gets another! She still hasn't hit the board in this 2 day contest. She now has $128. Still short.

Lets give Grandma a boost and have her hit a phenomenal 3rd capped horse! :faint: She's now got $192. Now shes about 7th. Still not in the top 3.Still not won the contest.

Take a realistic look at Grandma. Is she real? 3 bombs in the required 30 races. A 10% hit rate with an average mutual over 20-1! Not only is this a rarity,but its never been done in the history of any major contest I know of. Even if it has in some remote village,how often has it happened! Like once in a lifetime. Yet you are basing your entire view of the NHC contest on something that has probably never happened and probably never will.

[GatetoWire]

Oh get off your high horse already. Are you waiting for applause? Well here you go...clap clap clap...hope you feel better. WHO THE HELL ARE YOU TELLING ME THAT I'M WAITING FOR SOMEONE TO HAND ME SUCCESS?!?!?


Thank you for the applause....I appreciate it......applause is always good. I do feel better.

I said that America thinks that luck is important and they are looking for someone to hand them success.

If you work hard and are successful then great but don't co-mingle success and luck in the same sentence because they don't belong together.

[rrpic6]

I'm going to summarize this thread:
If someone from the paceadvantage.com community wins a Handicapping contest, then it is skill, if anyone else wins a contest, then its luck.

RR

[bigmack]

I'm going to summarize this thread:
If someone from the paceadvantage.com community wins a Handicapping contest, then it is skill, if anyone else wins a contest, then its luck.
What have you been reading; he views of one? Cut the melodrama.

[PaceAdvantage]

What have you been reading; he views of one? Cut the melodrama.I was just about to echo your sentiments. Thanks for saving me the thought process. :ThmbUp:

[Light]

Stillriledup

I think they're talking about you.

Re: NHC winner John Doyle

Charlie was pretty impressed with John's skill . In responding to a comment on a chat board about contests like this being luck, he said:

"I'll tell you what. John was not throwing darts. I spent a lot of time with him this weekend and he did his homework. He watched replays of every horse in the races he was playing, and was able to do things like identify a horse with the chart comment of "tired". He's an excellent handicapper."

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2011/01/john-doyle-wins-nhc.html

[Stillriledup]

Stillriledup

I think they're talking about you.

Re: NHC winner John Doyle

Charlie was pretty impressed with John's skill . In responding to a comment on a chat board about contests like this being luck, he said:

"I'll tell you what. John was not throwing darts. I spent a lot of time with him this weekend and he did his homework. He watched replays of every horse in the races he was playing, and was able to do things like identify a horse with the chart comment of "tired". He's an excellent handicapper."

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2011/01/john-doyle-wins-nhc.html

:ThmbUp:

I'm famous!

[Zman179]

Question:

In the 12 editions of the NHC, how many people were able to finish in the Top 10 twice?

I know of at least one, but are there more? It's not easy to find prior results.

[Steve 'StatMan']

If there were a year long handicapping contest, I sense a lot of participants would start stabbing in September or October out of necessity.

[Stillriledup]

If there were a year long handicapping contest, I sense a lot of participants would start stabbing in September or October out of necessity.

Here's the difference though. In the current format, you could stab once at the end, and it can make or break your top 10 finish. If you arent a good handicapper, by the time sept or oct roll around, you'll be so far behind that one lucky stab won't put over the top. In this contest, you can stab at the end and one winner can let you pass quite a few people.

[jbshoulda]

It can be done and both luck and skill are required. Since others don't think it is possible, it is. I have done very well in tournaments over the last 10 years. My wife has also done well and cashed in many tournaments. Hard work does pay off for those willing to work.

I also have sucked the last 2 years at tournaments. But I'm in it for the long haul. Here's a summary of the last big win at the Gold Coast



HTR Report Sep/Oct 2007 3 Seminar Review / Tournament Results







Anatomy of a Tournament Champion – Déjà vu!







Below is the list John sent me of his tournament point tally in the order that he they were hit. Reminder: the Gold Coast contest is Win-Place event with 15 mythical wagers plays per day for three days. There is a modified 10% cap on the usual $42/$22 payoff maximums. This means the player will receive full credit on 10% of the wager if the win payoff is greater than $42 or the Place price exceeds $22.





The contest was run from Thursday July 26 thru Saturday July 28.



Day Trk R# Pn Horse MLO WinPay PlaPay Points Total







Thu SAR 5 12 Pay Att 15/1 $22.60 $9.70 3230 3230







Thu SAR 7 8 Truly B 6/1 $30.60 $10.80 4140 7370







Thu AP 7 7 Sand Ar 10/1 $54.40 $22.60 6530 13900







Thu LAD 10 6 High To 10/1 ---- $10.60 1060 14960







Fri AP 4 1 Skating 15/1 $50.80 $15.20 5808 20768







Fri SAR 6 3 Half He 6/1 ---- $7.30 730 21498







Fri DMR 5 7 Carson’ 6/1 $15.20 $7.20 2240 22738







Sat MTH 4 4 Midnigh 15/1 ---- $13.20 1320 25058







Sat AP 5 1 West Co 15/1 $71.80 $28.20 6760 31818







Sat MTH 10 5 Earthen 8/1 $19.40 $9.80 2920 34738







Sat DMR 5 10 Desert 12/1 $17.00 $8.00 2500 37238







Sat DMR 7 10 Excessi 12/1 $10.80 $5.60 1640 38878





Talking Points



9 wins in 45 tries = 20% winners. 12 for 45 win or place = 26% WP rate.
Average Win Price was about $32; approximate Win ROI > 3.00.

Not only did JB win in back-to-back years in this contest -- this was a record score at the Gold Coast and one of highest relative scores ever achieved in any Vegas tournament. If the total were compared to other popular contests it equates to over 11,000 at the Orleans events and about 250 points at the NTRA NHC. Obviously we can’t make direct comparisons because the formats are all different, but the ROI benchmarks are well established in each. I have told JB and wife Barb that he was underpaid for this remarkable achievement and deserved a million dollars!

I hit all the same horses that JB scored with at MTH, DMR and SAR. As you’ll see if you look them up in the software, they are pretty obvious HTR plays, usually a "$$" tag. But he hit two bombs at AP that were would be very hard to find with any source. We talked on the phone after returning from Vegas and I asked him about the FTS he hit – AP Race 05 Saturday -- that paid $71.80. Although the winner had dull PED rating and FT and the trainer was just 1 for 12 with FTS, he noticed a couple of subtle items: 1) Interesting set of workouts, 5f-6f, very unusual for a 2yr and several gate works, and all spaced exactly 7 days apart – the horse was extremely fit in his mind. 2) The trainer and jockey together had won 5 of 18 starts and a large ROI. He surmised this was a "go to" homerun swing for clever trainer James Divito.
When you are in the zone, noticing obscure clues like that and taking an educated shot is par for the course. Brilliant handicapping. That element of clarity happens to all of us from time to time as we play the horses over the years. It usually results from intense focus and a relaxed confident attitude. Add a healthy dose of good intuition accrued with years of experience and daily feedback betting real money and eventually everything comes together. That’s what John does every day. He earned it.

[Bobzilla]

Question:

In the 12 editions of the NHC, how many people were able to finish in the Top 10 twice?

I know of at least one, but are there more? It's not easy to find prior results.


You're right, it's not easy to get past leaderboard results. I would have hoped that the DRF and NTRA websites would have had that information available. Maybe they do and I somehow missed it.

I can think of three who I think have done it but I'm not completely sure (Gutfreund, Houston, Shurman). I think Kent Meyer came close with a 12th along with his 1st.

[OTM Al]

I was out in Vegas and saw the second day (the snow delayed us a day). Because he's a modest guy, going to give props to Charlie as he was up among the leaders for a long time before falling back late and did a pretty darned good job. It wax a pleasure to meet him as well. These contests are great fun. I played the shoot out contest today along with 227 other players, many that were in the NHC. I screwed up strategically so wasn't able to play a couple I should have late, though did cash well for real on one to take away some of the pain. Having $80 exacted several times does make the day go well.

Only thing to say against the NHC is that Red Rock is just too remote and we got so bored waiting to be able to leave in the end we ended up playing Keno. I shudder at the thought of sitting in a chair so many have gone to die in, though friend Earle, who's idea it was, did win $100, we got free drinks and your money lasted a hell of a lot longer than on slots....

[exiles]

I say that a 365 day contest is skill because if a stabber catches a 40-1 winner on day one, that's not going to get him placed into the tourney, he has to do it over and over again in order to survive and finish in the top 10. In a 2 day format, he can catch one stab on a lucky number and hit the board. The shortness of the tourney protects his one 40-1 shot, it makes any individual longshot matter that much more. In a long contest, the weak handicappers will get weeded out. Its the same thing as real life handicapping. Anyone can have a winning 2 days, even the worst horseplayers in america will win on occasion, but will those same horseplayers show a profit after 1 year? Probably not.


AMEN!

[JustRalph]

In my experience in tournaments (not much really, but some recently) the "stabbers" aren't really that big a surprise to many. They usually don't move just one person way up. They move many well informed or well equipped types way up and many many times the same names rise to the top on these horses.

I recently caught some nice prices late in a tournament, in the later races and thought I was really going to move up. Then I find that several of the same names that I have seen before (and some from here on PA) have moved right up with me. There are some sharpies out there playing many many tournaments. Like my Gandpappy used to say, If you want to run with the big dogs, you gotta learn to piss in the high grass..........

[Bobzilla]

The entire tournament isnt all about stabbing, but because its 2 days, there is some element of stabbing. Every player in this tourney, who is behind with one or 2 races left to play, is stabbing...every one of them. If you're not in the top 10, you're stabbing, which means 90 percent of the players in this tourney are stabbing on at least one pick, the pick at the end when they know they're behind.

Going into the last race of NHC IX (2008) I wasn't in the top 10. I was somewhere in the 20s. I liked a horse in the race who I thought would be at higher odds than the post time odds of 6.60:1. I think he was the 5th choice in a field of about 10 or 11. Available to me were at least four horses offering odds between 10:1 and 40:1. Many of those payouts would have boosted me into 2nd for the tourney provided someone ahead of me hadn't taken the same stab. I stuck with the horse whose chances I liked, he won, and I finished with a 9th place finish in the NHC. I think the highest win payout I had during that particular NHC was $23.20. I had several in that range over two days. I took 5:2 and 9:5 in two of my mandatorys. One of those was towards the end of the second day. Hardly stabbing. I had been handicapping for at least four days leading up to the first day and definitely had a good idea of who I was going to be playing provided there was fair value and conditions were as expected.

There are some pretty sharp players out there who are known for their day to day play as well as their annual presence in the NHC. Ross Gallo and Duke Matties come to mind. Personally I would prefer the tournament be 4 days rather than 2 and that the threat of having to tap out be present. No need for "365". It's interesting that at least 7 of the 15 players who won the 2009 TwinSpires Ironman competition between March and November of 2009 (9 months w/ 60 choices a month) earned berths in this latest NHC with at least two of them being in the 50.

[Charli125]

I was out in Vegas and saw the second day (the snow delayed us a day). Because he's a modest guy, going to give props to Charlie as he was up among the leaders for a long time before falling back late and did a pretty darned good job. It wax a pleasure to meet him as well. These contests are great fun. I played the shoot out contest today along with 227 other players, many that were in the NHC. I screwed up strategically so wasn't able to play a couple I should have late, though did cash well for real on one to take away some of the pain. Having $80 exacted several times does make the day go well.

Only thing to say against the NHC is that Red Rock is just too remote and we got so bored waiting to be able to leave in the end we ended up playing Keno. I shudder at the thought of sitting in a chair so many have gone to die in, though friend Earle, who's idea it was, did win $100, we got free drinks and your money lasted a hell of a lot longer than on slots....

Thanks Al, it was great to meet you as well. You don't happen to know what the scores were for the shootout do you? My brain was fried so I put in my picks and took off.

I like the current format of the tournament, but while it would make it more difficult, I think a 3-day format might work even better. I'm still decompressing from the tournament though, so I'm going to put some additional thought into how I think it would work best.

[Stillriledup]

Going into the last race of NHC IX (2008) I wasn't in the top 10. I was somewhere in the 20s. I liked a horse in the race who I thought would be at higher odds than the post time odds of 6.60:1. I think he was the 5th choice in a field of about 10 or 11. Available to me were at least four horses offering odds between 10:1 and 40:1. Many of those payouts would have boosted me into 2nd for the tourney provided someone ahead of me hadn't taken the same stab. I stuck with the horse whose chances I liked, he won, and I finished with a 9th place finish in the NHC. I think the highest win payout I had during that particular NHC was $23.20. I had several in that range over two days. I took 5:2 and 9:5 in two of my mandatorys. One of those was towards the end of the second day. Hardly stabbing. I had been handicapping for at least four days leading up to the first day and definitely had a good idea of who I was going to be playing provided there was fair value and conditions were as expected.

There are some pretty sharp players out there who are known for their day to day play as well as their annual presence in the NHC. Ross Gallo and Duke Matties come to mind. Personally I would prefer the tournament be 4 days rather than 2 and that the threat of having to tap out be present. No need for "365". It's interesting that at least 7 of the 15 players who won the 2009 TwinSpires Ironman competition between March and November of 2009 (9 months w/ 60 choices a month) earned berths in this latest NHC with at least two of them being in the 50.


Good stuff!

I know there are some amazing players in this tournament, i'm not criticizing them or their capping skills, its just that in a 2 day tournament, if you want to win, you're going to be stabbing. The shorter the tournament, the more stabbing you are going to do. Also, a 2 day tournament puts good players in a position where they could lose to someone who isnt as good who's stabbing. Lets face it, not everyone in these contests is good, i just hate to see seriously good horseplayers lose out to people who they are better than just because of the 2 day format.

Well, it is what it is i guess, you have to make due with the 2 days.

I think your situation is a rare instance where you went for the horse you liked instead of stabbing and tying to win this thing.

I think this is why they cap win prices at 42, they do understand that they dont want 'stabbers' winning this thing and a 100 dollar horse will ruin the entire tournament if he comes in and a few people have him.

[OTM Al]

Thanks Al, it was great to meet you as well. You don't happen to know what the scores were for the shootout do you? My brain was fried so I put in my picks and took off.

I like the current format of the tournament, but while it would make it more difficult, I think a 3-day format might work even better. I'm still decompressing from the tournament though, so I'm going to put some additional thought into how I think it would work best.

Didn't hear the final score as I knew I was out. I do remember before the last required race (and I think there were only 3 races to play as an optional after it) the leader had something like $106 and the next 4 had around $91. Given as many good prices were happening during the day I was surprised it wasn't higher and my measely $55 had me on the first sheet of the 4 recording scoring.

[Light]

..if you want to win, you're going to be stabbing.


What facts do you have to validate this mantra you keep chanting? ZERO.What champions can you tell me that declared they "stabbed"? Name one. Who in the top 10 has declared they "stabbed"...ever? Where are you getting your facts? Give me just one case,one name. You have absolutely nothing to validate your case.

Your fantasy of how the NHC contest works is pure fiction in your head and has a deep disconnect with reality. I suggest you check one of these contests out the next time they happen before making a very derogatory remark regarding something you seem to know absolutely nothing about.

[Stillriledup]

What facts do you have to validate this mantra you keep chanting? ZERO.What champions can you tell me that declared they "stabbed"? Name one. Who in the top 10 has declared they "stabbed"...ever? Where are you getting your facts? Give me just one case,one name. You have absolutely nothing to validate your case.

Your fantasy of how the NHC contest works is pure fiction in your head and has a deep disconnect with reality. I suggest you check one of these contests out the next time they happen before making a very derogatory remark regarding something you seem to know absolutely nothing about.

No need to get your panties in a bunch, you're not even talking about the same thing i'm talking about. I don't understand what derogatory remark i'm making, please enLIGHTen me.

[rrpic6]

What have you been reading; he views of one? Cut the melodrama.

You and PA seem to confuse my sarcasm with melodrama. Its human nature to react in various ways when dealing with "a commoner" or "an average Joe" that rises above obscurity to become "the King of the hill". Its why American Idol is so popular. Common reaction to those that have found "stardom", no matter how short lived, range from admiration (acknowledging their skill), to envy (the success was mostly luck), to ass-kissing (these few are and always will be the top of heap and we shall worship their every word).

I've played in many a tournament, and I truly admire the winners of each and every tournament...(without kissing ass)

RR

[OTM Al]

Thanks Al, it was great to meet you as well. You don't happen to know what the scores were for the shootout do you? My brain was fried so I put in my picks and took off.

Here's the final scores for the shootout (first page anyway)

http://www.redrocklasvegas.com/images/2011shootoutfinalstanding.jpg

[bcgreg]

Absolutely correct!

Congratulations to all PA board members who qualified for this latest NHC. Looks to me like bcgreg, who was 2nd last year, had a very respectable showing this year as well finishing in the top 6th of the field. Cato put up some decent numbers on the second day. There may very well be others of whom I'm unaware.

Thanks for the mention Bobzilla. In last years tournament, I sat next to a very nice gentleman from Connecticut...by chance, was that you?

Interesting discussion in this thread about tournaments, stabbing and the like. Since I only started playing tournaments 2 years ago, I do not feel that I am any where close to an expert on how to go about it properly (if there is such a thing) but I have been very fortunate (and lucky) to have cashed in 2009 Horse Players World Series (30th), 2009 Summer Classic (40th), 2010 NHC (2nd) and 2010 Summer Classic (2nd). Yes, I am still a maiden, lol!

I finished 49th this past weekend. Not a very strong showing and I am disappointed in my organization. Yes, I said organization, not my handicapping. With 8 tracks running at the same time from 1:00 pm to roughly 4:00 pm, things can get a bit, well hectic, and that is putting it mildly. With mandatory races going off at the same time as a possible optional play, you only have so much time to handicap and watch the odds. I missed 2 plays that I had spent 5 hours the night before weeding out. It is definitely an art that I have, as of now, not mastered.

I had one bullet left going into the last race of the day, the 10th at SA. My handicapping led me to look at 2 horses...the 4 and the 9. The 4 was my first choice and was hovering around 5 to 1. The 9 was at 19 to 1 with 3 minutes left. The 4 would put me in top 30 and about $2,000. The 9 would put me in 7th or 8th and around $20,000. I played the 9. Take a look at the race and tell me if my play on the 9 was a "stab" or not.

The 4 won. The 9 led 6 panels and faded to a close up 4th.

Oh well, now, I am preparing for the Horse Players World Series in 2 weeks. Love this sport!

Regards,
bcgreg

[Light]

No need to get your panties in a bunch, you're not even talking about the same thing i'm talking about. I don't understand what derogatory remark i'm making, please enLIGHTen me.

I don't wear panties. I'm a guy.

The derogatory remark you are making is the repeated use of the word "stabbing" in association with these contests. It is derogatory for a couple of reasons:

A) stabbing implies desperation. Desperation is normally used as a last resort. You are implying that the contest is made up of a number of desperadoes who would trade the successful approach that got them there in the first place for the sure road to the poor house:"stabbing". Skill and handicapping have become secondary because "stabbing" is more "lucrative" in a 2 day event.You are making it into a mockery where mindlessness triumphs over reason.

B) If you were ever in one of these contests as I and several here have been, you would know that it is a lot of freaking HARD WORK. For you to disregard the winners coming up with their long shots as mere "stabbing" is very insulting after all the time and effort one has to put into it in order to be successful.

C) I know you are saying that you respect handicappers and blah blah blah,but you are also not giving credit where credit is due. 99% of handicappers in these contests are intelligent people who enjoy using their brain that got them there in the first place as opposed to getting a labotomy and "stabbing".

D) You still have not given one case of what you are talking about. When you belittle an event and people by conjuring up something that has no evidence of truth,you obviously don't respect it or it's participants.

[Stillriledup]

I don't wear panties. I'm a guy.

The derogatory remark you are making is the repeated use of the word "stabbing" in association with these contests. It is derogatory for a couple of reasons:

A) stabbing implies desperation. Desperation is normally used as a last resort. You are implying that the contest is made up of a number of desperadoes who would trade the successful approach that got them there in the first place for the sure road to the poor house:"stabbing". Skill and handicapping have become secondary because "stabbing" is more "lucrative" in a 2 day event.You are making it into a mockery where mindlessness triumphs over reason.

B) If you were ever in one of these contests as I and several here have been, you would know that it is a lot of freaking HARD WORK. For you to disregard the winners coming up with their long shots as mere "stabbing" is very insulting after all the time and effort one has to put into it in order to be successful.

C) I know you are saying that you respect handicappers and blah blah blah,but you are also not giving credit where credit is due. 99% of handicappers in these contests are intelligent people who enjoy using their brain that got them there in the first place as opposed to getting a labotomy and "stabbing".

D) You still have not given one case of what you are talking about. When you belittle an event and people by conjuring up something that has no evidence of truth,you obviously don't respect it or it's participants.

I apologize if i implied that the people in this contest don't work hard and arent talented, that wasn't my intention. The contest format is such that stabbing is required if you want to win. Not in all races, but unless you are in the lead somehow with a few races to go, most of these players are stabbing at the end, trying to get lucky. If you are down by a bunch of dollars, which most people are with a few bets left, they are going to stab on horses they normally wouldnt play in real life with real money. This has nothing to do with their overall skill as players, it has nothing to do with if they're longterm winners or not, it has everything to do with how the contest is set up.

If the best handicapper in the tournament is behind by 40 dollars with 1 or 2 bets left, he's going to stab on a 20-1 shot, even if he doesnt like the horse...that's what i'm talking about when i say stabbing.

[mistergee]

I apologize if i implied that the people in this contest don't work hard and arent talented, that wasn't my intention. The contest format is such that stabbing is required if you want to win. Not in all races, but unless you are in the lead somehow with a few races to go, most of these players are stabbing at the end, trying to get lucky. If you are down by a bunch of dollars, which most people are with a few bets left, they are going to stab on horses they normally wouldnt play in real life with real money. This has nothing to do with their overall skill as players, it has nothing to do with if they're longterm winners or not, it has everything to do with how the contest is set up.

If the best handicapper in the tournament is behind by 40 dollars with 1 or 2 bets left, he's going to stab on a 20-1 shot, even if he doesnt like the horse...that's what i'm talking about when i say stabbing.
do you think it would be better if they didnt post the standings during the contest?

[bcgreg]

One point I forgot to mention is that the 9 in SA race 10 was the longest odds horse I played the entire tournament. My highest score was a 12 to 1.

Regards,
bcgreg

[Stillriledup]

One point I forgot to mention is that the 9 in SA race 10 was the longest odds horse I played the entire tournament. My highest score was a 12 to 1.

Regards,
bcgreg

Did you feel this was a stab? Was this a horse you played with your own money at the windows?

[PaceAdvantage]

Did you feel this was a stab? Was this a horse you played with your own money at the windows?How was it a stab when he has already stated it was his second choice in the race?

My handicapping led me to look at 2 horses...the 4 and the 9. If your second choice in a race was going off at 19-1, I guarantee you that you would be betting it WITH YOUR OWN MONEY.

[Light]

If the best handicapper in the tournament is behind by 40 dollars with 1 or 2 bets left, he's going to stab on a 20-1 shot, even if he doesnt like the horse...that's what i'm talking about when i say stabbing.

This is not what you said before. Because this could easily apply to the end of a 2 day contest as well as the end of your proposed 365 day contest where you said stabbing would not be a factor.

[Stillriledup]

How was it a stab when he has already stated it was his second choice in the race?

If your second choice in a race was going off at 19-1, I guarantee you that you would be betting it WITH YOUR OWN MONEY.



Here's the thing though. No matter what 19-1 shot you play in the tournament, you are going to be able to find SOME reason to justify that it has some chance. If you can find ONE angle on a 19-1, no matter what that angle happens to be, does that mean by definition its NOT a stab?

I know that Light and a few others here want to believe that noone in this entire tournament has stabbed even one time, maybe there's really no such thing as a stab and if you can come up with any reason for a 19-1 to win, its a good sophisticated selection instead of a stab.

Does anyone here think that ANY horse racing selection is a stab, or maybe stabs are left up to lottery and slots players?

[Zman179]

The fact of the matter is that a handicapper is penalized for picking shorter priced horses. Therefore it requires handicappers to concentrate their plays on horses which have longer prices, and not necessarily horses in which the handicapper would have put their own money on. Therein lies the problem.

BCGreg's story is different because his 19/1 shot was his second choice, and many of us would use such a play as a top choice.

And yes, there are people in these contests who legitimately find long priced horses, but to think that there isn't a degree of stabbing amongst other participants is not realistic. I've cherry-picked a few results from the contest from the NTRA website:

Finished -- Day 1 Result --- Day 2 Result --- Grand Total

16 ... $0.00 $172.70 $172.70
25 ... $18.40 $139.10 $157.50
45 ... $5.00 $131.80 $136.80
52 ... $9.40 $120.90 $130.30
55 ... $5.00 $124.20 $129.20
75 ... $17.80 $99.60 $117.40
80 ... $0.00 $113.70 $113.70
82 ... $9.40 $103.50 $112.90
93 ... $8.20 $100.10 $108.30
95 ... $10.00 $97.80 $107.80
106 ... $9.40 $93.60 $103.00
T107 ... $9.40 $93.40 $102.80
109 ... $9.40 $92.70 $102.10
120 ... $0.00 $99.60 $99.60
123 ... $17.80 $80.80 $98.60
139 ... $6.60 $84.20 $90.80
141 ... $12.20 $78.00 $90.20
148 ... $9.80 $77.50 $87.30
149 ... $11.20 $76.00 $87.20
155 ... $0.00 $84.70 $84.70
162 ... $8.80 $72.40 $81.20
T166 ... $8.20 $71.00 $79.20
166 ... $3.80 $75.40 $79.20
176 ... $8.00 $68.60 $76.60
T176 ... $0.00 $76.60 $76.60
184 ... $0.00 $75.40 $75.40

The entire results can be found here: http://www.ntra.com/leaderboard/nhcxi/

I just found it interesting that so many people could have such a dreadful first day only to rebound so strongly on the second. While there are exceptions, there just had to be some sort of stabbing at choices in order to try to get back in the game.

[bcgreg]

Did you feel this was a stab? Was this a horse you played with your own money at the windows?

No I don't. No, I did not play this one...I already had a $20K+ payday coming if he wins.

I handicapped the race the night before and settled on looking more closely at the 4 and the 9. I thought the 9 would get the lead easily enough to control the early pace. First time offered for claim, the switch to Pat Val and this being the horses 3rd off a long layoff were the other deciding factors.

The 4 had many reasons to like: Mike Mitchell claim, Talamo, who is red hot in these races, I figured to be close to the early pace and very strong closing fractions, plus a razor sharp work 7 days prior.

So I had a choice between the 9 at 19 to 1, and the horse that might catch him, the 4 at 5 to 1. The 9 would give me a $20,000 payday...the 4, $2,000. As I said before...I played the 9. Race played out as I hoped except the 9 missed the turn for home and drifted wide. Don't know how much difference this made but he got beat by 1.25 lengths. That's horse racing!

With only 7 bullets each tournament day, I treat them like gold. I will not play a race that I have not handicapped. That, to me, is the definition of stabbing. Stabbing, as I understand the comments here, would be more in line with dart-throwing at races we did not handicap. Do players stab at tournaments? My opinion is yes, of course. Do they win money? I have no way of knowing but I do not personally know a single person that will admit it...lol!

These tournaments are a tremendous amount of work and nerve racking, to say the least. With 70 races a day and sometimes 4 to 5 races going off at the same time, need I say more. I use HTR to point me to the races most likely to produce a higher payoff winner (and these are the ones I spend time looking at), and I use CJ's numbers to help clarify the pace picture.

In the case of these tournaments, I am not looking for 3 to 1's that should be 2 to 1...I am looking for 8 to 1 and higher that have hidden positives or other positives that have been missed by the bettors and will outrun their odds. This is what I do in my regular play as well so the tournament format fits my playing style.

Regards,
bcgreg

[bcgreg]

I just found it interesting that so many people could have such a dreadful first day only to rebound so strongly on the second. While there are exceptions, there just had to be some sort of stabbing at choices in order to try to get back in the game.

I can explain part of this Zman...the racing cards on Saturday were much better than Friday. The Sunshine Millions cards at the tracks were great races overall and there were quite a few more mid price horses on Saturday, even though I wasn't able to find them, lol.

Regards,
bcgreg

[Zman179]

No I don't. No, I did not play this one...I already had a $20K+ payday coming if he wins.

I handicapped the race the night before and settled on looking more closely at the 4 and the 9. I thought the 9 would get the lead easily enough to control the early pace. First time offered for claim, the switch to Pat Val and this being the horses 3rd off a long layoff were the other deciding factors.

The 4 had many reasons to like: Mike Mitchell claim, Talamo, who is red hot in these races, I figured to be close to the early pace and very strong closing fractions, plus a razor sharp work 7 days prior.

So I had a choice between the 9 at 19 to 1, and the horse that might catch him, the 4 at 5 to 1. The 9 would give me a $20,000 payday...the 4, $2,000. As I said before...I played the 9. Race played out as I hoped except the 9 missed the turn for home and drifted wide. Don't know how much difference this made but he got beat by 1.25 lengths. That's horse racing!

Listen, even though you should have zigged when you needed to zag, you did the right thing. You were there to win, you had the minerals, you went for the $20K instead of the minor prize, and for that I give you two thumbs up. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[bdownes]

When u have a miserable first day then you have to shoot for higher priced horses the second day. U might have set a 5/1 minimum for an optional play for the first day but because u had a bad first day that minimum is now 10/1. Same thing with the mandatories.

[pandy]

If everyone had to bet $100 on each of their horses it would be interesting to see if that changed how they picked.

[bcgreg]

When u have a miserable first day then you have to shoot for higher priced horses the second day. U might have set a 5/1 minimum for an optional play for the first day but because u had a bad first day that minimum is now 10/1. Same thing with the mandatories.

This is absolutely correct...I did just this last January when Brian Troop got such a huge lead the first day.

Regards,
bcgreg

[Zman179]

With only 7 bullets each tournament day, I treat them like gold. I will not play a race that I have not handicapped. That, to me, is the definition of stabbing. Stabbing, as I understand the comments here, would be more in line with dart-throwing at races we did not handicap. Do players stab at tournaments? My opinion is yes, of course. Do they win money? I have no way of knowing but I do not personally know a single person that will admit it...lol!

My personal definition of stabbing is when a tournament handicapper (after handicapping a race) selects a horse with inflated odds of which he/she, under normal betting circumstances outside of a contest, would not normally place a wager on.

[Aner]

Question:

In the 12 editions of the NHC, how many people were able to finish in the Top 10 twice?

I know of at least one, but are there more? It's not easy to find prior results.

At the banquet one person at the microphone said that only one player in the last 12 years had finished in the top 10 twice. I thought that was so interesting that I wrote it down.

[exiles]

Question:

In the 12 editions of the NHC, how many people were able to finish in the Top 10 twice?

I know of at least one, but are there more? It's not easy to find prior results.

How many people can win the lottery twice?

[Capper Al]

The one thing about handicapping is that you don't need a contest to win. If you're good, you should make a profit. The contest are just icing on the cake for those who handicap well.

[Fastracehorse]

No he cant. There is a cap of $42 win and $22 place. You're going to have to do a lot more "lucky stabbing" to win it or hit the board.What's the odds of that? Astronomical via "luck" or "stabbing".

but i understand it.........sort of

the guy who lead after day 1 actually had an $80 winner, and ended up losing in the last race by only a few dollars

fffastt

[Stillriledup]

Why is there a cap in the NTRA, anyone know?

[Zman179]

How many people can win the lottery twice?

So you're saying winning the NHC is pure luck with that comment?

[Zman179]

Why is there a cap in the NTRA, anyone know?

There was one contest in New Haven, CT in which a $180 horse won a race. All of the regular handicappers wound up being immediately surpassed by a large group of stabbers (something like 20 people). From then on they implemented caps.

[Zman179]

At the banquet one person at the microphone said that only one player in the last 12 years had finished in the top 10 twice. I thought that was so interesting that I wrote it down.

Thank you. I said in the beginning that the NHC could have 40 editions and have 40 different winners. With next year's NHC being expanded to 500 seats, I'm beginning to think that my 40/40 estimate was a little too conservative.

[Capper Al]

Why is there a cap in the NTRA, anyone know?

The story goes back in the day, when contest were just becoming popular, Andy Beyer had the lead until the last race. Someone put his money on a long shot and won the contest. After that the rules started to change.

[Spiderman]

There was one contest in New Haven, CT in which a $180 horse won a race. All of the regular handicappers wound up being immediately surpassed by a large group of stabbers (something like 20 people). From then on they implemented caps.
There was a contest at Aqueduct, first race winner paid well over $100. Cap was instituted in future contests.

[Johnny V]

There was one contest in New Haven, CT in which a $180 horse won a race. All of the regular handicappers wound up being immediately surpassed by a large group of stabbers (something like 20 people). From then on they implemented caps.
In one of the earliest contests at New Haven somebody had Frisk Me Now, the winner of the Hutcheson and he paid $213.80 to win. There was no cap back then either. This fellow just zoomed by everyone and won the tournament. The prize back then was about twenty thousand to the winner. That may have been the highest payoff in official tournament play before the caps.

[Light]

It's amazing the things you learn on PA. Like how the worst angle in the history of horse racing,(stabbing), is actually your best angle in the most prestigious horse racing tournaments in the country.

Now if this is true,(and the winners and runner ups ROI's are surely in the black),why is "stabbing" not the angle of choice of the everyday better?I mean if its good for the best players in the country,it must be good for us. No,no,no. Don't tell me people like to play there own way. People want to primarily make money,and they would gladly toss all their books and racing forms out the window in exchange for those green backs. After all that's the motivator.

So why is there nothing written about stabbing? After all, according to the gospel of a few here,it is the determining factor among each group of elite horse players every year.

But wait,could these "long shots" have been derived from some other source? Can handicappers really handicap a "long shot"? Impossible according to the wise ones here. They're sharp :ThmbUp: Handicappers are basically lottery players. This game has no rhyme or reason. If you catch a long shot,don't bother explaining how you used some angle to catch it.You're just fooling yourself. There is only one possible way a human being can catch a long shot and it is called "stabbing". The worst angle ever is now your best friend. This is the secret to winning tournaments. I bow to the PA Gods of wisdom.

[turfnsport]

Now if this is true,(and the winners and runner ups ROI's are surely in the black),why is "stabbing" not the angle of choice of the everyday better?I mean if its good for the best players in the country,it must be good for us.

So why is there nothing written about stabbing? After all, according to the gospel of a few here,it is the determining factor among each group of elite horse players every year.



I think they are probably among the elite contest players, not among the elite horseplayers or handicappers in the country.

[Stillriledup]

There was a contest at Aqueduct, first race winner paid well over $100. Cap was instituted in future contests.

But why? I mean, its pretty obvious the person who had the 100 dollar winner 'handicapped' this horse for 3 hours the night before and determined that it was one of his 'prime picks' .why should future geniuses get punished and not get the whole hundred? Since there's no such thing as stabbing, according to the wise ones here, why punish an elite handicapper who picks out a hundred bucky? :rolleyes:

[Zman179]

In one of the earliest contests at New Haven somebody had Frisk Me Now, the winner of the Hutcheson and he paid $213.80 to win. There was no cap back then either. This fellow just zoomed by everyone and won the tournament. The prize back then was about twenty thousand to the winner. That may have been the highest payoff in official tournament play before the caps.

THAT'S the one! Thanks Johnny.

[Zman179]

I think they are probably among the elite contest players, not among the elite horseplayers or handicappers in the country.

Is there a difference between a contest player and a bettor? I seem to think there's a different mentality between the two.

It's amazing the things you learn on PA. Like how the worst angle in the history of horse racing,(stabbing), is actually your best angle in the most prestigious horse racing tournaments in the country.

Now if this is true,(and the winners and runner ups ROI's are surely in the black),why is "stabbing" not the angle of choice of the everyday better?I mean if its good for the best players in the country,it must be good for us. No,no,no. Don't tell me people like to play there own way. People want to primarily make money,and they would gladly toss all their books and racing forms out the window in exchange for those green backs. After all that's the motivator.

So why is there nothing written about stabbing? After all, according to the gospel of a few here,it is the determining factor among each group of elite horse players every year.

But wait,could these "long shots" have been derived from some other source? Can handicappers really handicap a "long shot"? Impossible according to the wise ones here. They're sharp :ThmbUp: Handicappers are basically lottery players. This game has no rhyme or reason. If you catch a long shot,don't bother explaining how you used some angle to catch it.You're just fooling yourself. There is only one possible way a human being can catch a long shot and it is called "stabbing". The worst angle ever is now your best friend. This is the secret to winning tournaments. I bow to the PA Gods of wisdom.

You sound like a horseman.

[Bobzilla]

A couple of nice articles from the DRF.

http://www.drf.com/news/quitting-his-day-job-pays-john-doyle-nhc


http://www.drf.com/blogs/classy-exacta-nhc

[PaceAdvantage]

I bow to the PA Gods of wisdom.Why are you using the plural form of God in this instance? There is only one "God" spouting this nonsense (ok, maybe two...I'll hedge my bet).

But don't make it seem as this is the general consensus of those in this thread.

I am starting to seriously detest those who enjoy painting this board with a broad brush.

[PaceAdvantage]

But why? I mean, its pretty obvious the person who had the 100 dollar winner 'handicapped' this horse for 3 hours the night before and determined that it was one of his 'prime picks' .why should future geniuses get punished and not get the whole hundred? Since there's no such thing as stabbing, according to the wise ones here, why punish an elite handicapper who picks out a hundred bucky? :rolleyes:How about lettin' it go for a change...

[SeattleSlew@BP]

I've played in two major contests and finished third in the 'Championship at the Orleans'.

The "skill" is very basic. First, it's win/place. Which eliminates the more complex ticket structures and betting savvy, where the best bettors separate themselves in real world wagering. Second, there are horses you can eliminate as viable contest plays in 30 seconds.....odds well over the cap, short chalks, etc....and that creates a much smaller range of possible plays. This is how contest strategy greatly differs from actual wagering, where there are infinite ways to bet and maximize the race.

The "luck" is that out of this smaller pool of possible plays, you need to outhit a big field of players, the best of who are picking from the same group of contest-playable horses. So you have to have the said basic "skill", and still get tremendously lucky to outdraw everybody.

Maybe a full weekend of "stabbing" is a little extreme. The horses I played I would have in real life, but that was near the lead almost the whole time, so no need to stab. I had the hot streak of my life, every break and every bob, and I would have made more than the 30k prize if I had wagered from home. A big reason I don't play contests. Sorry if that sounds snobbish, but you would not have to be a big bettor to win 30k with the weekend I had.

[Stillriledup]

I've played in two major contests and finished third in the 'Championship at the Orleans'.

The "skill" is very basic. First, it's win/place. Which eliminates the more complex ticket structures and betting savvy, where the best bettors separate themselves in real world wagering. Second, there are horses you can eliminate as viable contest plays in 30 seconds.....odds well over the cap, short chalks, etc....and that creates a much smaller range of possible plays. This is how contest strategy greatly differs from actual wagering, where there are infinite ways to bet and maximize the race.

The "luck" is that out of this smaller pool of possible plays, you need to outhit a big field of players, the best of who are picking from the same group of contest-playable horses. So you have to have the said basic "skill", and still get tremendously lucky to outdraw everybody.

Maybe a full weekend of "stabbing" is a little extreme. The horses I played I would have in real life, but that was near the lead almost the whole time, so no need to stab. I had the hot streak of my life, every break and every bob, and I would have made more than the 30k prize if I had wagered from home. A big reason I don't play contests. Sorry if that sounds snobbish, but you would not have to be a big bettor to win 30k with the weekend I had.

Fantastic post.

[Bobzilla]

I'm impressed with the format of the P.A.I.H.L. contest currently underway on the PA site. I wonder if something like that would have more universal approval for a tournament as important as the NHC than the current $2 WP format.

Strictly for the purpose of the NHC, if it were to adopt a similar format, maybe the only thing I would change would be the amounts considered wagered for the A, B, and C selections with the A-B-C (D-E) option. Rather than $2 atb for the A, B and C, in the NHC the A horse would be the primary play and would be backed with $3 across the board. The B horse $2 and the C horse $1. Caps for straight wagers would be 20:1, 10:1 and 5:1. Rather than a $2 exacta box of A,B,C I would have the AB exacta at $4; AC $3; BA $2; BC $1; CA $1 and CB $1.

The A-A-B (C-D) option would be just like it is in the P.A.I.H.L. with $4 across the board on the A and $2 for the B. The exactas are $8 for AB and $4 BA.

All exactas would have to have a cap as well but I haven't thought out the math for an appropriate cap over a 3 or 4 day tournament. A possible wrinkle would be to give full track odds on the first $2 wagered for a successful AB hit with the A-A-B option.

The alternates, in parantheses, would be used in the event of post time scratches.

The event would be either 3 or 4 days. With 500 players expected to earn a berth starting in 2012, the contest could be held in a ballroom for the first two days. If players make the cut after thursday and friday, as is done in golf tournaments, they can then continue as the event moves to the racebook for the weekend. Preferred seating would go to those on the top of the leaderboard.

As is done now, leaderboard updates would occur only after the mandatory races. I would not display an update after the last mandatory on the last day. I wouldn't have a mandatory race during the last two hours of the contest on the last day.

I think something similar to the P.A.I.H.L. format might work well over 3 or 4 days in a NHC. Strength of opinion would be represented in selection order and stategy would very much be in play. It wouldn't be just a handicapping contest but a horse playing event as well. Those who performed well would hopefully be recognized as having accomplished something impressive by a broad representation of the horse playing public.

[NTamm1215]

But why? I mean, its pretty obvious the person who had the 100 dollar winner 'handicapped' this horse for 3 hours the night before and determined that it was one of his 'prime picks' .why should future geniuses get punished and not get the whole hundred? Since there's no such thing as stabbing, according to the wise ones here, why punish an elite handicapper who picks out a hundred bucky? :rolleyes:

Thus the whole point of having a cap, right?

I don't get your crusade against tournaments. Have you done poorly in any you've entered? Are you pissed because someone you don't know and probably never will is going to carry around the moniker of "Handicapper of the Year"?

You understand that everyone playing in the NHC has EARNED their way there. It's an elite field and the people who are fortunate enough to put themselves in position to win are not the types that fire away at 20-1 shots for two days. Look at the three horses John Doyle hit late on Saturday to put him over the top. Were they such inconceivable longshots that he "stabbed" to get them? Your act is tiresome.

[PIC6SIX]

I have played in MANY contests; NHC, Vegas, OTBs and etc. The two main things I learned is that contests are FUN and FATIGUING. The people you see always qualifying and repeating are contest junkies. I mean they enter as many contests as their personal life will allow. They ALWAYS buy the max number of entries allowed. They are not detered by defeat because they are on a mission and they know "Success is Failure Turned Inside Out". They have (a) Handicapping Skills (b) A Plan (c) Luck and (D) Hopefully "Good Day".`I inserted (D) because successful angles in the past DO NOT WORK ON A DAILY BASIS. Every race has different dynamics. HOw else can you explain horse "A" beating horse "B" today and horse "B" winning next time.

Long story short I take a middle of the road response to this thread. I see both sides of the issue and they both have merit. But if I had to lean either way in this issue I would lean toward LUCK. There are too many prior NHC champions, qualifiers, professional - trainer/bettors who do not show up on championship day as you would believe their credentials would indicate. In ending I say again "You Gotta Have a Good Day"

I usually do not respond to Threads but this is one I found somewhat personal and interesting.

Needless to say I am still waiting for "My Good Day". It almost happened March 5th, 2010 at Santa Anita in the $40 dollar contest but all the STABBERS went by me with the $100 horse in the last race. By the way I had the $100 horse on my successful P-6 ticket which I did not play because I was too involved in the $40 CONTEST???????????????????// Oh well life goes on and the sun will rise tomorrow. :)

[Stillriledup]

Why are you using the plural form of God in this instance? There is only one "God" spouting this nonsense (ok, maybe two...I'll hedge my bet).

But don't make it seem as this is the general consensus of those in this thread.

I am starting to seriously detest those who enjoy painting this board with a broad brush.
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/hri-pricci-no-more-expansion-of-the-nhc-please/

:lol:

Read post #2 by Craig!

[Cardus]

Why are you using the plural form of God in this instance? There is only one "God" spouting this nonsense (ok, maybe two...I'll hedge my bet).

But don't make it seem as this is the general consensus of those in this thread.

I am starting to seriously detest those who enjoy painting this board with a broad brush.

Broad Brush was a nice, nice horse.

[Light]

But if I had to lean either way in this issue I would lean toward LUCK.

The issue here is not luck. Luck is certainly an ingrained factor in almost anything. The issue raised is stabbing. Stabbing is not luck nor is it conducive to luck.

[Bobzilla]

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/hri-pricci-no-more-expansion-of-the-nhc-please/

:lol:

Read post #2 by Craig!

If Craig knew what he was talking about he wouldn't have used the example of hitting two 50/1 shots then hope to hold on. There is very little incentive to play any horse above 20/1 in a tournament such as this unless the player REALLY likes the horse's chances because of the cap.

Look at it this way, most serious tournament players know that to have a chance in a WP format, they're going to have to double their bankroll over 30 plays in two days. In the case of the NHC that would be $240. That would be like hitting 7 horses over 30 plays at 11/1. Obviously it doesn't break down that way but you get the idea. The player will have approximately 128 races to chose from 8 different tracks plus 16 mandatory races to make this happen.

I realize that you have a difficult time believing that there are some handicappers out there who can do this based solely on their skill, but the truth is there are, and if the NHC happens to land on two days in which their angles are available and coming in, and if the player is alert and in good form, then he's probably going to have a good tournament. It's only those who never will be able to match this type of performance that cannot conceive of anyone else being able to do it. The greatest attribute I've been able to detect in those who can is their realization that becoming a better handicapper involves an ongoing learning process. They never let their egos convince them that they know all there is to know and any results that don't make sense to them are simply a fluke. If those who can are surprised by any outcome they always go back and try to see what it was that they missed. This is probably the biggest distiction between those who can, like John Doyle, and those who think that the NHC is nothing but a stab fest, like your friend Craig.

[Stillriledup]

If Craig knew what he was talking about he wouldn't have used the example of hitting two 50/1 shots then hope to hold on. There is very little incentive to play any horse above 20/1 in a tournament such as this unless the player REALLY likes the horse's chances because of the cap.

Look at it this way, most serious tournament players know that to have a chance in a WP format, they're going to have to double their bankroll over 30 plays in two days. In the case of the NHC that would be $240. That would be like hitting 7 horses over 30 plays at 11/1. Obviously it doesn't break down that way but you get the idea. The player will have approximately 128 races to chose from 8 different tracks plus 16 mandatory races to make this happen.

I realize that you have a difficult time believing that there are some handicappers out there who can do this based solely on their skill, but the truth is there are, and if the NHC happens to land on two days in which their angles are available and coming in, and if the player is alert and in good form, then he's probably going to have a good tournament. It's only those who never will be able to match this type of performance that cannot conceive of anyone else being able to do it. The greatest attribute I've been able to detect in those who can is their realization that becoming a better handicapper involves an ongoing learning process. They never let their egos convince them that they know all there is to know and any results that don't make sense to them are simply a fluke. If those who can are surprised by any outcome they always go back and try to see what it was that they missed. This is probably the biggest distiction between those who can, like John Doyle, and those who think that the NHC is nothing but a stab fest, like your friend Craig.


Excellent post, i agree with most of what you say.

I just think that because of the amount of people involved in this tournament and the shortness of it, you are really obligated to bet tons of longshots. Some of those longshots will be horses you like and some won't be.

If hypothetically there was only 2 people in the NHC, i would have to imagine that each person would play it closer to the vest, if they loved a 2-1 shot they would have no problem picking that horse, but with hundreds of people who are betting longshots, you too have to pick longshots to have a shot.

Hopefully you're not misreading me, i'm not busting on the talent of the handicappers, i know there are some amazing players in this thing, i know that you have to be good AND lucky to win this, i just think that with 500 players all swinging on 20-1 shots, you have to really hit a few of these on your own in order to have any chance to win.

I think my friend Craig's pointed out that that the more people in the tournament and the shorter it is, it really does make luck a HUGE factor and in horseracing, we both know that there's no luck involved, its a skill game and you can beat the races if you are skillful...personally, and i know this is just me, but i'd prefer a game that is tilted more towards skill than towards luck.

[Tom]

Towards the end of the tourney, if you are out of it, what do you do except play the longest prices and hope for the best?

[SeattleSlew@BP]

The issue here is not luck. Luck is certainly an ingrained factor in almost anything. The issue raised is stabbing. Stabbing is not luck nor is it conducive to luck.

If a football team is down 3 touchdowns in the fourth quarter, I would hope they aren't still running the ball. They are going to take "shots" down field, and calling plays they normally wouldn't. And they won't care if they get lucky in a come-from-behind win. It's part of the game strategy. As is late "stabbing" in contests. You are playing the game and looking for the 'W' any way you can get it.

[Force of One]

I didn't read every post, but in fairness most of these people who finished well are either above average handicappers or EXTREMELY lucky, considering you have to do very well in a previous tournament (and sometimes 2 previous tournaments in the case of NHCQualify.com) just to be there. As somebody who has yet to qualify for this tournamet (missed by 2 spots once) I respect anybody who got there, let alone did well. That said, there is certainly an element of luck, especially late.

More than once, I've gotten beaten in a tournament where the last race was won by the biggest longshot. I serious doubt all the people who jumped me pegged that horse from the get-go, but were more likely throwing up a Hail Mary a longshot.

In the end though, I guess it's like what The Man told Steve McQueen in "The Cinncinnati Kid" - sometimes it's about making the wrong move at the right time.

[Stillriledup]

If a football team is down 3 touchdowns in the fourth quarter, I would hope they aren't still running the ball. They are going to take "shots" down field, and calling plays they normally wouldn't. And they won't care if they get lucky in a come-from-behind win. It's part of the game strategy. As is late "stabbing" in contests. You are playing the game and looking for the 'W' any way you can get it.

Its called a Hail Mary. Same thing happens in the NHC for many players who are far behind with a few races to go.

[Dahoss9698]

I think my friend Craig's pointed out that that the more people in the tournament and the shorter it is, it really does make luck a HUGE factor and in horseracing, we both know that there's no luck involved, its a skill game and you can beat the races if you are skillful...personally, and i know this is just me, but i'd prefer a game that is tilted more towards skill than towards luck.

There is no luck involved in horse racing?

[cj]

Its called a Hail Mary. Same thing happens in the NHC for many players who are far behind with a few races to go.

How many of these have won?

[thaskalos]

... in horseracing, we both know that there's no luck involved, its a skill game and you can beat the races if you are skillful...personally, and i know this is just me, but i'd prefer a game that is tilted more towards skill than towards luck.Even if a gambling game is a "skill" game, it still has to include a strong element of luck, if it expects to attract serious money. Without the element of luck, the weak players are quickly discouraged and drop out...leaving only the strong players to fight for meager returns.

If a game is ALL skill, it generates very little gambling interest...which explains why there so little betting on chess matches.

[Stillriledup]

How many of these have won?

More than 0.

[Stillriledup]

Even if a gambling game is a "skill" game, it still has to include a strong element of luck, if it expects to attract serious money. Without the element of luck, the weak players are quickly discouraged and drop out...leaving only the strong players to fight for meager returns.

If a game is ALL skill, it generates very little gambling interest...which explains why there so little betting on chess matches.

Luck is involved in a very small sample, such as the NTRA 2 day tourney. A winning player can lose bets because of bad luck. But, in the long run (long run meaning a gambling career that lasts years or decades), that player will rise above the 'poor luck' and win out in the end. My point was that in such a short tournament, luck is a huge factor.

Yes, there is a strong element of luck, but when you use a sample of thousands of races and decades of racing, a losing player won't be able to become a winning player based on luck and vice versa.

Comparing chess to horse racing is a little unfair because in chess, there are only two players. In horse racing, there are thousands of people betting the races. Now, if me and you got together in a room and cross booked each other's action, one of us would give up fairly quickly when that person saw the other guy was better. Same as chess.

[cj]

More than 0.

Name one.

[Stillriledup]

Name one.

Doug Flutie.

Kordell Stewart

There's 2, and i didnt even try hard.

[cj]

I don't know of any in the NHC

FTFY.

[thaskalos]

Some years back, at the Penn National handicapping contest, Andy Beyer was leading the contest with ONE race to go...at which point, three players decided to place their bets on a 50/1+ shot in desperation. The longshot won...and those three players finished first, second and third in the contest.

As I recall, Beyer was very vocal about the unfairness of the contest's format...which MAY have played a role in the implementation of the odds cap concept.

[garyscpa]

Some years back, at the Penn National handicapping contest, Andy Beyer was leading the contest with ONE race to go...at which point, three players decided to place their bets on a 50/1+ shot in desperation. The longshot won...and those three players finished first, second and third in the contest.

As I recall, Beyer was very vocal about the unfairness of the contest's format...which MAY have played a role in the implementation of the odds cap concept.

Damn right, if you're leading going into the last race, anybody who beats you at more than 2-1 stabbed. :D

[SeattleSlew@BP]

Doug Flutie.

Kordell Stewart

There's 2, and i didnt even try hard.

It's not just a last play hail mary. It can be the last half or quarter of a contest, whether it's a football game or NHC, you are going to change your gameplan and take shots to get back in it. It's just basic strategy, people get their pride hurt when you call it "stabbing". Start calling it common sense :)

[Light]

whether it's a football game or NHC, you are going to change your game plan and take shots to get back in it.

But what Stillriledup is doing is misrepresenting the value of "Hail Mary's" or "stabbing" as if MOST contests (football or horse racing) are won in this manner when just the opposite is true.

[cato]

Horseplayers are hilarious. Someone has gone to the time trouble and expense of putting together a tournament with over $1,000,000 payout in your vocation and/or avocation and all you can do is bitch about whether its a game of skill or chance. Hmm, clue, it's both, just like all other contests, and if if you enter and make an effort, you have the BEST CHANCE IN YOUR LIFE TO WIN $500,000 (next year its been promised to be $1,000,000 payoff.

Jeez, consider being grateful for the opporunity.

Cheers, Frank

[1GCFAN]

Not a constantant but the Red Rock was fun during the tournment. The tellers did a nice job and they kept the windows free for the players.

[OTM Al]

But what Stillriledup is doing is misrepresenting the value of "Hail Mary's" or "stabbing" as if MOST contests (football or horse racing) are won in this manner when just the opposite is true.

The time I qualified it was an online contest. I was ill that day so I put my picks in in the morning, expecting to watch and update through the day, but promptly fell back asleep. I woke up with 3 races left in 10th place. I thought that was pretty impressive so I just decided to leave well enough alone. I was 5th with one race to go after hitting a modest winner. My last winner was 5-2 which jumped me to 3rd and in. No stabbing neccessary.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Towards the end of the tourney, if you are out of it, what do you do except play the longest prices and hope for the best?

In smaller local tournaments when mathematically eliminated by the last race, I've written "Pulled Up Lame" on my ticket.

[turfnsport]

Some years back, at the Penn National handicapping contest, Andy Beyer was leading the contest with ONE race to go...at which point, three players decided to place their bets on a 50/1+ shot in desperation. The longshot won...and those three players finished first, second and third in the contest.

As I recall, Beyer was very vocal about the unfairness of the contest's format...which MAY have played a role in the implementation of the odds cap concept.

I played in it a couple of times..If I remember, you could only bet 10% (?) of your bankroll on the final race, maybe the final three races, I don't remember exactly.

[The Hawk]

Horseplayers are hilarious. Someone has gone to the time trouble and expense of putting together a tournament with over $1,000,000 payout in your vocation and/or avocation and all you can do is bitch about whether its a game of skill or chance. Hmm, clue, it's both, just like all other contests, and if if you enter and make an effort, you have the BEST CHANCE IN YOUR LIFE TO WIN $500,000 (next year its been promised to be $1,000,000 payoff.

Jeez, consider being grateful for the opporunity.

Cheers, Frank

This is probably what everyone who has read this thread and hasn't chimed in has been thinking.

[Steve 'StatMan']

It only makes sense to play tournaments in the style that fits best winning the tournament, not only from the start, but from where you stand at each point of the contest. If one refuses to play in a manner that will help one win, they won't win.

There are different stlyes of tournaments, or at least there used to be. None that I recall are as lucrative as DRF/NTRA NHC Final, the tour stops, or NHWS at the Orleans. But find those and play those, esp. if free.

Arlington Park in IL had contests at their IL OTBS have contests that has people betting from a limited buy in bankrolSl that lets one bet any race and any pool, minimum number of races, free entry, keep what you have left of bannkroll. Most of the events lets the winner qualify for a spot in the NHWS, but at least at this one, if you're betting long, you're putting real money down. If those or other tournaments fit your game, seek them out.

Basically, appreciiate the free and/or pay tournaments, if you can handle the format, they are a great, and possibly lucrative, alternative. Don't like the tournament format, don't play.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Amen to Cato & The Hawk! Far better chance to win a quarter million or more in these tournaments than any 10 plus ball lottery games, and better chance to win $5,000 than any 4 ball lottery game!

[LRH4]

This is probably what everyone who has read this thread and hasn't chimed in has been thinking.

Good post Hawk......

I've been a competitive horseplayer for only the last 2 years (see my posts on the software forum of PA) and have been fortunate to qualify for the DRF/NTRA last year (placing 150th) and this year (placing 53rd) and in a couple of week's will play in the World Series at the Orleans (qualified for 2 spots).

Here's the deal:
It's like the saying, "Any given Sunday"......Are the Steelers/Packers the best teams in the NFL this year? - dont think so, but these are the rules.

Contests are a completely different animal than just handicapping. You'd have to participate in one to fully understand. The pressure is high and the races come at you fast and furious.

In my opinion, there are 3 components of a contest, 1) Handicapping skills, 2) Betting skills and 3.) Racing luck

Last weekend I liked a lot of horses who won but I didnt play as the odds were too low. You can't win a contest playing chalk. I wont bet anything inside of 4/1 so I often have to look at my back up picks.

These contests are much more than handicapping, its the art of playing a horse at a decent price.

As far as "stabbing", for me I only stab if at the end of a contest I need a 20/1 to win, then I'll swing for the fences and "gamble", not handicap

Here is my beef:

The husband and wifes that qualified and worked together to purposely pick differnet horses in mandatory races giving them a competitive advantage
(Bearding)

LRH4
"Handicap early, bet late"

[Stillriledup]

Good post Hawk......

I've been a competitive horseplayer for only the last 2 years (see my posts on the software forum of PA) and have been fortunate to qualify for the DRF/NTRA last year (placing 150th) and this year (placing 53rd) and in a couple of week's will play in the World Series at the Orleans (qualified for 2 spots).

Here's the deal:
It's like the saying, "Any given Sunday"......Are the Steelers/Packers the best teams in the NFL this year? - dont think so, but these are the rules.

Contests are a completely different animal than just handicapping. You'd have to participate in one to fully understand. The pressure is high and the races come at you fast and furious.

In my opinion, there are 3 components of a contest, 1) Handicapping skills, 2) Betting skills and 3.) Racing luck

Last weekend I liked a lot of horses who won but I didnt play as the odds were too low. You can't win a contest playing chalk. I wont bet anything inside of 4/1 so I often have to look at my back up picks.

These contests are much more than handicapping, its the art of playing a horse at a decent price.

As far as "stabbing", for me I only stab if at the end of a contest I need a 20/1 to win, then I'll swing for the fences and "gamble", not handicap

Here is my beef:

The husband and wifes that qualified and worked together to purposely pick differnet horses in mandatory races giving them a competitive advantage
(Bearding)

LRH4
"Handicap early, bet late"


There are plenty of 'beards' in this NHC, no doubt about it.

You say you've only been following racing for 2 years and you're already good enough to qualify for this and other tournaments?

[LRH4]

There are plenty of 'beards' in this NHC, no doubt about it.

You say you've only been following racing for 2 years and you're already good enough to qualify for this and other tournaments?

Stillriledup...

Clarification.....while I've only been competing in contests for a couple of years, I've been handicapping for about 30 yrs

LRH4

[Stillriledup]

Stillriledup...

Clarification.....while I've only been competing in contests for a couple of years, I've been handicapping for about 30 yrs

LRH4

Gotcha! :ThmbUp:

[PIC6SIX]

Let me put it this way, "Handicapper named Joe Blow was lucky he stabbed the winner at 20:1". Or how about this "Handicapper Joe Blow was lucky his horse won by a centimeter". It has gotta be YOUR DAY.:confused:

[Stillriledup]

Let me put it this way, "Handicapper named Joe Blow was lucky he stabbed the winner at 20:1". Or how about this "Handicapper Joe Blow was lucky his horse won by a centimeter". It has gotta be YOUR DAY.:confused:

Sort of like the lottery, it has to be 'your day'. :ThmbUp:

[toetoe]

I don't wear panties. I'm a guy.





The latter is true. If the former is true, I'm duly scandalized, Commando. :eek:

[toetoe]

Broad Brush was a nice, nice horse.


He loved to ship, didn't he ? He and Dickie Small were quite a team. :jump:

[toetoe]

Some years back, at the Penn National handicapping contest, Andy Beyer was leading the contest with ONE race to go...at which point, three players decided to place their bets on a 50/1+ shot in desperation. The longshot won...and those three players finished first, second and third in the contest.

As I recall, Beyer was very vocal about the unfairness of the contest's format...which MAY have played a role in the implementation of the odds cap concept.



I still can't condone capping the payouts. The lower the cap, the closer it comes to being simply about picking winners. With that rule in place, they turn around and say it's about parimutuel total. Mr. Beyer could play that very longshot himself, or indeed any longshot earlier in the contest --- and maybe he did.

I think I remember that in 2010, a big bomber (50/1?) ran second by a nose (or won and was placed second ... :confused: ), paying less, cumulatively, than the 5/1 winner. Maybe they should pay a 5/1 minimum for winners, and a 3/1 minimum for placers. :rolleyes:

All contestants this year should consider themselves lucky that the great longshot maven

Terry Toczinsky

was absent. ;)

[Light]

Terry Toczinsky

That's not my name but part of the triple play team I was on in 2010. In this video,you can see us in 10th on the leader board at the end of the first day. Hopefully that will not be our last claim to fame.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WL5DAJLI9ts

[toetoe]

I'm glad she made it, but how did she qualify, you may wonder ? Why, she hit an uncapped mutuel of 90-plus dollars at GGF. What's wrong with that ? I say, "Hail Miz Terry !" :jump: