Quicky contender/ranking

[andicap]

Based on my speed/pace method using HTR figures
I did the first race at Belmont only so far

three levels of contenders
Top

4. Won Moro

2nd level
2, Danding
8. Prime

3rd level
3. Wild Cu
6. Aggressive
9. Stylish

Took 1 minute based on printout. --
Method -- Horses that were within 1-2 fifths of a second of a "par" set up for 3 pace formulas plus Cramer final time.
Top level met all 4 pars
2nd level met 3 pars
3rd level met 2 pars

Generally I want horses to meet 3 levels to be true contenders, but if a track is biased horses who meet 2 levels are fine. It's a way to find out if track is biased (horses win consistently at a specific distance with only 1-2 levels that are the same)
1 level measures a total pace
1 level measures an early pace (but not just a pace fig)
1 level meausre a late pace (but not just late pace)
1 measure final time

I'll try and chart this on this board like I am doing with my other method.
It's a good way of record keeping for me

[Tom]

Past the test drive and onto the open highway with HTR, eh?
Interesting concept you are doing here.
I do a little comparrsion theing with two paceline modes-1 and 5.
For those not using HTR, PL1 uses the last line, while PL5 is a computer picked line that it thinks best fits today's race.
I look a the horse under both methods, and when a horse is tops on both, it is usulaly a good worth a look.

[andicap]

Tom
Try 4 and 5 -- I think you'll do better. They are good companion pieces.
PL 4 is best AP of last 6 months (if in last 5 races)

Here's why:

4 does not give a horse a line if it doesn't fit the surface/distance.
5 gives all horses a line so you'll get a turf line for a dirt horse if nothing else fits.
If a horse has a blank line on the PL-4, you know something's wrong and have to check it out. (One weakness, HTR doesn't give 9f race pacelines for 8F races because Ken doesn't think they are applicable.)

Also, I like PL 4 because it's the BEST a horse can do going bck 6 months, so if the line is fairly recent (or far back and the horse is 2nd/3rd off a layoff), AND the horse is tops in PL-5, it's very positive.

PL-5 and PL-1 in my mind are often redundent because PL-5 will often use the last race if it's applicable.

Or you can look at all three if you want to drive yourself really crazy.

I'm going to ask Ken to give me a new screen -- The TLC screen but with each horse's last 3 PLs on the bottom instead of the last one (and some minor changes in categories). That way I can see at a glance what the horse has done recently and if he's coming off layoffs, etc.
Will go over a page of course but I get free paper at work :)

[Tom]

I like PL4 and use it in a lot.
MY PL1 and 5 is an offshoot of Sartin's using the last line. If the horse is tops on last line, and is still tops when you give every other horse the PL5 advantage, you have good thing. Do't know if you read the orignal PAce MAkess the Race, but Michael Pizzola had an article in it in the lessons section about how his confidence grew when all horse wre rated of the last line. This is an extension of that for me.
I use this on weekends when I "scan" about a hundered or so races quickley looking for potential spots for the day-any tracks the TVG is carrying that day.