There is a specter haunting the Triple Crown

[My Friend]

is a specter haunting the Triple Crown. It is the specter of the colts not being put into prep races by the connections. The trend is to run 2 or maybe 3 races, once they have the graded money they earned sometimes more than a year prior to the running of the Kentucky derby as two year olds.
There are two ways to remedy this situation, one is to eliminate 2 year old graded money from consideration or to only include a fraction of it when calculating who will be in the derby gate. The other is to run your particular horse 5 or 6 times before the derby, bringing up the base of earnings needed to run in the derby on the first Saturday in May.

Something must be done, 2 races, one race n February and one in March, does not put a pony in its best physical shape to run 10 furlongs in May.

Fans want to see the colts run, not sit in the barn content to wait and see if their bankroll will be enough to get in.

[joanied]

WOW...I said something about this somewhere in my posts recently...it was pertaining to Uncle Mo because Pletcher said he would race twice before the Derby, and I think that's outrageous...
IMO, I think you're right on about these newly turned 3 yr olds racing just a couple of times before the big day...running a 'fresh' horse, has become common place.
Yes, the fans want to see these Derby contenders race more often before the Derby, it's frustrating and I don't think it does the game much good...it certainly, IMO, doesn't do the horses any good, they go into a hard five week run, it's no wonder so many come up short or end up too tired to run in the Belmont, and if they do, too tired to run again until Saratoga.

I think your idea of using just a percentage of their 2 yr. old earnings towards the Derby is a good one, the bulk of that money earned should come from the 3 yr old races.

[Robert Goren]

Maybe a horse that only raced once or twice before the derby might actually stand a chance of being able to put in a good effort in all three triple crown races.

[FenceBored]

Maybe a horse that only raced once or twice before the derby might actually stand a chance of being able to put in a good effort in all three triple crown races.

You may have a point. Just for grins I looked up the 11 Triple Crown Winners and counted the number of 3yo starts they had prior to the TC.

0 - May 10 - Sir Barton
1 - Apr 26 - Gallant Fox
2 - Apr 22 - Omaha
2 - Apr 14 - War Admiral
2 - Apr 13 - Count Fleet
3 - Apr 09 - Assault
3 - Mar 17 - Secretariat
3 - Mar 09 - Seattle Slew
4 - Mar 08 - Affirmed
7 - Feb 08 - Whirlaway
7 - Feb 02 - Citation

Over half of them didn't even start their season before the beginning of April.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You may have a point. Just for grins I looked up the 11 Triple Crown Winners and counted the number of 3yo starts they had prior to the TC.

0 - May 10 - Sir Barton
1 - Apr 26 - Gallant Fox
2 - Apr 22 - Omaha
2 - Apr 14 - War Admiral
2 - Apr 13 - Count Fleet
3 - Apr 09 - Assault
3 - Mar 17 - Secretariat
3 - Mar 09 - Seattle Slew
4 - Mar 08 - Affirmed
7 - Feb 08 - Whirlaway
7 - Feb 02 - Citation

Over half of them didn't even start their season before the beginning of April.

That is an eye opener Fence.I had always assumed listening to some of the old timers talk that this was just a recent phenomenon.Not true.That list goes back 92 years.Very illuminating.Thanks for the work.

[andicap]

Ah, as with all data, its all how you interpret them.

I look at that chart and see that the past four TC winners, going back to Citation, all had at least three starts as 3 yr-olds. The game has certainly changed a lot since Sir Barton ran in 1919 -- horses were much, much hardier back then.

I would say the chart supports the notion a horse needs at least three starts as a 3 yr old nowadays.

[Tom]

I would like to see the number of starters limited to 12, maybe 14.
That is still twice the number of actual contenders every years.

Graded stakes earnings only at a mile or longer count, win and place only.

The Derby has become a joke lately. The Preakness, imho, is by far the only TC race that has any prestige left.

[joanied]

I was very surprised when I saw that chart...but I still hold to my opinion that they need at least 3 starts prior to the Derby...this trend of starting twice, then having a 5 or 6 week rest before the Derby is not doing these youngsters any good...they need to be extremely fit and 2 races with 5 wks rest ain't gonna do it for getting through those five weeks...it's like a shock to their systems, have it easy for months, then all of a sudden they race 3 times in five weeks, rather than having that 5 week rest. By time the Belmont rolls around, most of these colts are actually ready for a 5 week rest!

I agree with Tom that it's time to lessen the runners in the Derby...I think 16 would be fair, that's 2 more than the BC races allow...I know everyone dreams of a Derby win, and long shots have certainly done well, but 4 less horses sure makes the feild a little easier to navigate, lessens the chance of a mishap and those 4 horses left out would probably not run well anyway...

[depalma113]

You may have a point. Just for grins I looked up the 11 Triple Crown Winners and counted the number of 3yo starts they had prior to the TC.

0 - May 10 - Sir Barton
1 - Apr 26 - Gallant Fox
2 - Apr 22 - Omaha
2 - Apr 14 - War Admiral
2 - Apr 13 - Count Fleet
3 - Apr 09 - Assault
3 - Mar 17 - Secretariat
3 - Mar 09 - Seattle Slew
4 - Mar 08 - Affirmed
7 - Feb 08 - Whirlaway
7 - Feb 02 - Citation

Over half of them didn't even start their season before the beginning of April.

The Triple Crown didn't exist until after Gallant Fox won it and it was noted that both he and Sir Barton were the only two to win those races. So there really was no prep schedule before that. After those two,with the exception of War Admiral (8), all the horses that won it, all had at least 10 starts from their debut as 2 year-olds.

Also, Sir Barton beat 2 horses and Gallant Fox beat 3 in their respective Belmont Stakes, You really didn't need that much of a 3 year-old prep schedule to win against such small fields.

How many of the current top 20 contenders will have at least 10 starts before this year's Kentucky Derby? I know Comma to the Top, but who else?

Two starts without a foundation may win you the Derby, but it won't win the Triple Crown. Unless of course no one shows up for the Belmont, which because of a million dollar purse, will never be the case again.

[joanied]

Except for Comma TTT...none of 'em!!


I have to agree that one big reason we can't seem to get that TC winner is lack of foundation...IMO, you can't expect a young horse to race 3 or 4 times as a 2 yr old, then race 2 or 3 times before the TC begins and expect him to hold top form...the worst of it, IMO, is they get a rest after the BC, so they are off for 3 months, then they'll get a race, then wait another 5 or so weeks and race again, then wait another 5 weeks and it's Derby day...now, I admit, there is something to be said for a fresh horse...but fresh doesn't always equate into fit.

[keithw84]

Seattle Slew had only 9 starts after winning the TC

[joanied]

Seattle Slew had only 9 starts after winning the TC

AFTER the Derby...but we're talking about before the Derby:)

[My Friend]

and that strategy has worked real well in the past 4 decdes hasn't it. ??

not one triple crown winner since 1978...

maybe they should at least try to run 4 times , huh ?

all that work, and you drew the WRONG conclusion..

numbers dont lie, but you can lie with numbers.

[joanied]

Seattle Slew had only 9 starts after winning the TC

I read that again, keith84, and I think what you are saying is that Slew was not fit to run more than 9 times after he won the TC...what he shouldn't have done was ship to CA. right after he won the TC...his trainer was against it and it lost him the horse...the real reason he ran only 9 times after the TC was his stud career...owners wanted him to get at it...besides, what's wrong with 9 starts after the TC...today if a horse wins the TC we'll probably never see him race again because he'll be retired to the shed...God forbid they run him and he gets beat a time or two:rolleyes: ...screw the fans, just get that stud career started!!