Turf paradise Monday

[appistappis]

if the eye is stronger than the racing form then in the 7th race, #5 Strong Suggestion should be good at a price.

[johnhannibalsmith]

if the eye is stronger than the racing form then in the 7th race, #5 Strong Suggestion should be good at a price.

When this clunker was 35-1 last time at about 8 MTP, I sent a text down to a friend that the horse was utterly playable for part at a price like that. He should have won the race. He rallied up the fence beautifully under Mikey Ybarra who put the best ride on any horse in the race... but had the misfortune of having Eikleberry in front of him inside the eighth... and Ry gave him NOwhere to go at the rail.

That said... I played this horse over and over this summer and I'm sort of convinced that this is one of those horses that will always have a habit of being flattered by a scenario that unfolds in front of him when he looks good and he just flat lacks a true winning attitude.

I can't let a comment go by about my local dive without interjecting an opinion :rolleyes: and I'm just of the feeling now that this is one of those ones you can key when you get a sensational price, but as much as I like him, I'm just not sure I'd waste even .50 cents adding his number on a pick four as a win proposition.

But I'd love to see good old Steve "Chuck" Mingione get one. :cool:

[surfdog89]

Weird Race but Watch Me Go Bye Bye might be the best of this suspect field

[johnhannibalsmith]

Weird Race but Watch Me Go Bye Bye might be the best of this suspect field

I would definitely peg him as the one to beat. I suspect that Mikey Iam Marino will get aggressive and make someone try him. It looks to be a pretty unbettable race. In fact, I was almost motivated to drive all the way up to the OTB, but that's a card that I need the convenience of home wagering to make the effort for.

Maybe the screwball Metz horse Mad N Wild is the right one to consider here. When you've got the 1-2-3 condition, generally the first thing I do is see if any horses have run just once at the meet in (what would by default be) a tougher spot. This guy fits this profile, but his back races are confounding.

He was a Los Al regular, a "rallying" 4 1/2 model. He dabbled in Cal fairs, was off a while, came back, ran once, got eligible... Other than his poor overally form, he really is the horse that offers price and a good profile for the condition, plus Ry (admittedly rides a lot of Metz horses) goes here, which certainly helps ---

...this is a funky condition - I'd be lying if I said that I thought it was a bright idea to play these races like other conditions - if you are eligible for this condition, the LAST thing that you want to do is run second or third... so... it requires a little creativity at times if you don't think there is a clear winner to be found...

[johnhannibalsmith]

Since I'm bludgeoning poor Appistappis' thread with verbose meanderings of the mind and my personal thread below was bad luck the last two days ...(I can blame someone other than Hong)...

I'm a weeeeeeeeeeeeee bit intersted in Rio Torre in the 8th, a grass race at about a mile (which means the rail should be out 28 feet and they bounce down the chute before linking into the turn)... which means????... give me cheap early speed at a big number...

We've got Dennis Collins... I THINK Dennis can win this race at the gate if he breaks him clear gets down on Wilson and Joe Black Sandy. Wilson loves to eat one for three-quarters of a mile after letting someone take space he should have moved for and I don't think anyone will actually press in earnest here if Collins looks dead serious leaving there.

Horses I do like - a la No Laughing Matter, Subtle Hunter - just cannot afford to get those indecisive, neither here nor there, waiting for something to happen, type veteran rides you get on the grass course.

We've had dry weather and lots of wind the last few days, no racing yesterday, a rail that's supposed to be set almost a third out - I have to try for these cheap speedsters every time in a race like this...

[surfdog89]

Magic Maze might just come back running on this field.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Magic Maze might just come back running on this field.

Mystic Maze (I'm guessing that's who...) is a scratch.

[Gapfire]

Tough beat, looked very close to winning it.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I thought briefly I might eat my words... :lol:... He made a heck of a solid key if you went that route....

[appistappis]

I hit the tri for a buck but that nose cost me the 2k super.

[Gapfire]

I hit the tri for a buck but that nose cost me the 2k super.

Too bad, nice pick just the same. :ThmbUp: