Accepting losses in your handicapping system

[Capper Al]

Maybe after 300 times or more, I might have it now-- stay with your handicapping method. Don't try to second guess yourself. This happens to me when I noticed that I picked a horse that the public selectors won't touch. I get defensive thinking that it must be my system that is off. Too many times I have changed my picks and after the race wish I hadn't. But beware here, I'm generally right that when these marginal races come up that I'm more likely to lose them than win them. This is what feeds the whole cycle of angst that gets me off my picks. I have concluded that there is really only two choices in this situation and avoid the third.

Stay with your pick
Pass the race -- Like this is going to happen!
Avoid, at all cost, changing your selections
One must live or die with their own wherewithal when it comes to handicapping. This happened to me this weekend. I got off a winner.

[HUSKER55]

I pulled the same damn trick.

I finally came to a simple solution, stay with my picks or buy someone elses.

Seriously, if you don't trust yourself or your system then what are you doing?

Buy somone elses and shut up. It makes no sense to go to that much work and then in your moment of triumph you let the public control your fate. How smart is that? I have asked the guy in the mirror that question way too often.

You are not alone. I think everyone has done it at one point or another in time.

This is just my opinion, but I think one of the keys to being a successful player is maintaining control of your own ship.

Kind of like Kenny Rogers in "The Gambler". know when to hold and know when to fold

Good Topic.

[Overlay]

If you know exactly why you selected the horse you did, and why the other horses were not worth a bet (which implies consideration of wagering value, also), it helps to maintain confidence and discipline. Also, I personally find that basing those determinations on statistics (rather than opinion) helps me in that regard.

[thaskalos]

There is only one certainty in this game...all of us are sure to lose many more bets than we stand to win - whether these wagers are "marginal" or not.

The one thing that keeps us from "second guessing" ourselves, is the confidence that we eventually develop in our own handicapping (and betting).

Once the handicapper proves to HIMSELF that he is proficient in this game, he will have no trouble ignoring the opinions of others. Until then...these "second guessing" games are sure to continue.

[Broad Brush]

Different methods work for different people. However, I don't agree with the
notion that you should stick to your original opinion "no matter what".
Things develope as the day goes that you could not plan on ahead of time.
Such as: a track bias, a scratch of a key speed horse, change in track condition,
or most importantly--the odds the public decides. For any real long term success
in this game you must be getting odds above the chances of the horse(s)
you are betting. If you want to win, you have to be tough and take the
horses that are offering value with their odds. Yes, there will be races where
you get off a winner on to a loser--but in the long run, success comes from
betting situations in which the payoff odds are higher than the chances
of it occurring. Any winning "pro" will tell you this.

[thaskalos]

Different methods work for different people. However, I don't agree with the
notion that you should stick to your original opinion "no matter what".
Things develope as the day goes that you could not plan on ahead of time.
Such as: a track bias, a scratch of a key speed horse, change in track condition,
or most importantly--the odds the public decides. For any real long term success
in this game you must be getting odds above the chances of the horse(s)
you are betting. If you want to win, you have to be tough and take the
horses that are offering value with their odds. Yes, there will be races where
you get off a winner on to a loser--but in the long run, success comes from
betting situations in which the payoff odds are higher than the chances
of it occurring. Any winning "pro" will tell you this.CapperAl mentioned second guessing himself when his pick is ignored by the public selectors - for fear that his "system" was wrong about the race; he didn't talk about ignoring things like track biases or late scratches...or about betting horses at lesser odds than indicated by their actual (perceived?) winning chances.

[Broad Brush]

Your are correct. The part about the "avoid changing your pick at all costs"
sounds a bell with me. Sometimes, good public handicappers have seen
something that is useful info that could change your "Odds versus Chances"
opinion on a race. I follow NYRA closely and I do think Andy Serling is quite good.
Though he seems to get a bit criticized here, I think he has insight on some
things I missed. I admit that most public cappers aren't worth the time of day.
You must even handicap them to a degree. Never pass up an opportunity to
learn something in this game. Thats part of what makes it so great: the learning
never ends!!

[windoor]

Maybe after 300 times or more, I might have it now-- stay with your handicapping method. Don't try to second guess yourself. This happens to me when I noticed that I picked a horse that the public selectors won't touch. I get defensive thinking that it must be my system that is off. Too many times I have changed my picks and after the race wish I hadn't. But beware here, I'm generally right that when these marginal races come up that I'm more likely to lose them than win them. This is what feeds the whole cycle of angst that gets me off my picks. I have concluded that there is really only two choices in this situation and avoid the third.

Stay with your pick
Pass the race -- Like this is going to happen!
Avoid, at all cost, changing your selections
One must live or die with their own wherewithal when it comes to handicapping. This happened to me this weekend. I got off a winner.

I always double check my selections before going on line to wager. Only if I made a mistake or overlooked a contender do I change my selection.

As far as odds go, I never look at them. I know it sounds foolish, but my average odd for the last 16 months is approx 7 to 1.

For this very short 2011 I've managed a 31.88 hit (69 plays and 22 win) at a whopping average of 11.37 to 1, thanks in part to a 56 to 1 hit last week.

There was a time when I would not have played this horse, thinking I must have made a mistake. Now I know better.

I hope I didn't make the racing gods angry with posting this. It seems every time I post on how well I'm doing I head in to a long losing streak :)

Regards,

Windoor

[Capper Al]

CapperAl mentioned second guessing himself when his pick is ignored by the public selectors - for fear that his "system" was wrong about the race; he didn't talk about ignoring things like track biases or late scratches...or about betting horses at lesser odds than indicated by their actual (perceived?) winning chances.

You're right. I'm talking about second guessing myself. What I realize is that we have to accept our blind spots. If the winner is 80% likely to be in your top 3 then live with the 20% of the time that it isn't. Here are some scenarios to consider when using two public selectors:

Your public selectors and you have the same horse but not necessarily in the same order. I feel most confident with this one. And don't start talking odds or value here. If half of your selections don't come up this way either you're a genius if you're cashing or you better improve your handicapping.
One selector agrees with you and the other doesn't. I have some confidence here and start double checking my figures to see if I can see what the selector that disagrees sees. This is usually a betting opportunity because the public should be split also resulting in higher odds.
And here's the one scenario that started this thread. Both public selectors disagree with me but agree with each other. I really start double checking my figures now. Here someone has a blind spot, and it's most likely me since I'm the one who disagrees. Yet sometimes I will be right. And it is here that courage is needed and the true test of our handicapping abilities will be judged.

[Broad Brush]

Hello Capper Al, I would not let the fact that you disagree with both Public
Handicappers change your opinion as to bet your choice or not. I think you should listen to why they pick what they pick. You may be looking at the race
from a different perspective and that can be a very good thing!! Higher priced
winners do not usually show traits that all can see--hence the higher odds.
Besides with the exception of an Andy Serling, most try to just pick the logical
ones so they can give out a few winners per day. Perhaps to gain confidence
in yourself, you should keep track of both the percentage of winners and their
odds when you encounter the situation that bothers you the most. If you see
success that will give the confidence you need.

[Dick Schmidt]

I have a solution to this problem that is extremely effective and extremely unpopular: don't look. Make your bets without reference to the odds or morning line, then go on to work the next race. Don't watch the odds move, don't watch the race, don't check the results or payoffs until you are done for the day. Spend your time handicapping and then entering the outcome into a good record keeping program when the day is done. So long as your bankroll is larger at the end of the day, no single race, or any group of races matters. Put your time and mental effort where it actually pays off, not watching dumb animals run around or listening to the opinions of other dumb animals betting on them.

I told you that you wouldn't like it, but it is how most professionals play.


Dick

Anything can be solved through prayer, talking, or violence.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.

[thaskalos]

I have a solution to this problem that is extremely effective and extremely unpopular: don't look. Make your bets without reference to the odds or morning line, then go on to work the next race. Don't watch the odds move, don't watch the race, don't check the results or payoffs until you are done for the day. Spend your time handicapping and then entering the outcome into a good record keeping program when the day is done. So long as your bankroll is larger at the end of the day, no single race, or any group of races matters. Put your time and mental effort where it actually pays off, not watching dumb animals run around or listening to the opinions of other dumb animals betting on them.

I told you that you wouldn't like it, but it is how most professionals play.


Dick

Anything can be solved through prayer, talking, or violence.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.Hi Dick,

I remember reading a post of yours some time ago...where you stated that you were so busy handicapping, that you had no time to actually watch the running of the races that you had wagered on.

Now, you advise that we make our bets without reference to the odds...and then, "go to work on the next race".

Don't you think that the player would be better served if he had his handicapping done in advance...instead of scrambling in between races to get his work done?

Also, if consulting the odds and watching the races are not really necessary...why not place all our bets in advance, and then take the rest of the day off?

If this is really how most professional players operate...why are they complaining about the long hours associated with their jobs?

[dav4463]

I first discovered horse racing when I was a kid watching the daytime TV show "A Day at the Races". I think that was what it was called...anyway, they showed races and I would pick the winners with my Mom. We had a blast!

This means I learned to love the sport first. I love the beauty of the animal. I love the colors, the sounds, and the competition. There is nothing like leaning on the rail and just listening to the sound of thundering hooves as they run by me! Later I learned to appreciate the trainer moves, jockey selection, class moves, and the types of races that the horse likes to run.

That is why I watch the races. Even if I lose my bet, I can appreciate four horses heading down the stretch neck and neck! It is exciting to watch! I like seeing a horse rally from the back of the pack to challenge three other horses to see who can hit the wire first!

That is what I love about horse racing. Handicapping and money came next. It makes it even more fun when I win money, but watching the horses run is what it is all about for me. I love the sport!

These so-called "dumb animals" are beautiful to me. Just watching them in the paddock before a race is fun. I like to look at their walk, their attitude...sometimes it points to a horse that is ready to run. It is not all numbers. It is living, breathing, beautiful creatures competing in one of the most exciting sports in the world!

[Kevroc]

Nice post Dave!

I'd also add that watching races is a skill. You can glean information from the trips. Add horses to a "watch" list and rate performances accordingly.

Win, lose or draw.. the "fun" is in the sweat.

and personally, if i'm not having any fun, i'm not playing anymore.

When it becomes work.. i'm out.

[Johnny V]

I try not to let the public handicappers influence me in any way. Some of them are quite good and sometimes entertaining but they are not going to get me off my pick. I handicap the races the night before and select my contenders. I do watch the odds board closely because at this point I am not thinking "selection" but rather,"how can I make money in this race". Sometimes I pass many races. I watch the races closely noting any trips etc. Later in the day I record my bets and results. That's what works for me. It's work and time consuming. IMO Capper Al is right about his conclusions in his initial post.

[harntrox]

Become schizophrenic...and all the pain goes away ... seriously.

Never cancel an exotic bet.
Just buy another ticket 'against it' - and consider the first bet not to exist so you have no emotional attachment. Like your alter ego made the bet.

Think 'additive+adversarial', not 'subtractive+replacement', when second guessing how to cover your a$$.

Saved my pick 4 a cpl weeks ago. Glad i bought the throw away ticket at a light price which dinnt matter cause the big ticket hit. One of my personalities won ... and made profit for both them.

[Capper Al]

Nice post Dave!

I'd also add that watching races is a skill. You can glean information from the trips. Add horses to a "watch" list and rate performances accordingly.

Win, lose or draw.. the "fun" is in the sweat.

and personally, if i'm not having any fun, i'm not playing anymore.

When it becomes work.. i'm out.

I agree. The whole race experience is something to enjoy from the tote-board to the finish line. If we bet in moderation then when we lose we've just paid for entertainment.

[Capper Al]

The big item to me here is still accepting our own blind spots. Like I said, if 80% of the time the winner is in my top three then 20% of the time I'm not seeing the race correctly. There's nothing we can do about our blind spot. And what's worse is when two public selectors agree with each other and not me, I'm probably in my blind spot. But I could be seeing it right in spite of this. So either I pass or bet my picks. The question I have for readers of this thread is do you sense your own blind spot? Do you know your limitations as a handicapper? It's all part of beating the game.

[windoor]

The big item to me here is still accepting our own blind spots. Like I said, if 80% of the time the winner is in my top three then 20% of the time I'm not seeing the race correctly. There's nothing we can do about our blind spot. And what's worse is when two public selectors agree with each other and not me, I'm probably in my blind spot. But I could be seeing it right in spite of this. So either I pass or bet my picks. The question I have for readers of this thread is do you sense your own blind spot? Do you know your limitations as a handicapper? It's all part of beating the game.

Limitations and blind spots. Yeah, I know what they are, but still fall victim from time to time.

Back it the day, I could never make any money if I went to the track. I always got caught up in the excitement and with 20 minutes or so between races back then, I always had time to look closer at the race I intended to pass.

Given enough time to analyze a race, I always seem to find something I like. Of course I would kick myself, when I played another loser.

Call it a blind spot, but discipline and patience has always been the hardest thing for me to master.

With the use of a PC, and online wagering, I can now make my wagers early, go to work, and check the results when I get home. This has been working very well for me after I found the right angles and spot plays.

Even to this day, I still have some problems from time to time on the weekends when I'm watching the races on the PC. I tend to want to wager on exotics that I don't normally play.

Regards,

Windoor

[riskman]

Yeah, the blind spots are really killing me at Delta Downs. Right now the average winning odds are about 7.5-1. Exactas around $110. and Tris around
$1100.
Seriously, there are races that the winner will not even be on your radar,. If it 20% for you, then accept it. There are races that I handicap every day that after review there is no logical explanation for the winner.[at least for me]

[raybo]

Yeah, the blind spots are really killing me at Delta Downs. Right now the average winning odds are about 7.5-1. Exactas around $110. and Tris around
$1100.
Seriously, there are races that the winner will not even be on your radar,. If it 20% for you, then accept it. There are races that I handicap every day that after review there is no logical explanation for the winner.[at least for me]

Don't feel too bad, DeD is one of the hardest tracks in the country to handicap. It has always been like that, of course, back in the day, there was a lot of "stuff" going on behind the scene.

[ranchwest]

Don't feel too bad, DeD is one of the hardest tracks in the country to handicap. It has always been like that, of course, back in the day, there was a lot of "stuff" going on behind the scene.
You think? Hahahahaha!

You're right, I was there for a lot of "stuff".

Back to the topic, the challenge for me is to face the fact that I have to stay "up" for every race, not necessarily playing every race, but always knowing there is a score in my future and a score to be had. Lose? Turn the page. This is an endeavor of preparation and confidence.

[Eddie W]

One time i lost 800.00 in the pick6 in one day...But i took my wife and
kids out to dinner that night anyways...To bob's big boys
that was around 1995....I don't bet that high anymore....I play twice
a mo, with the same bankroll....It does not pay to go over your head.

[raybo]

Regarding being swayed by the tote, most of the time the public choices are predictable, when they aren't it is wise to find out why, if you can, if you can't, beware.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I have been on some monster streaks.And in 2008 I was coming off a string of them and had come up with a new betting philosophy that I thought insured me of a big profit.

I proceeded to have the worst year of my betting life in 09.A 46% loss.

But it wasn't just dumb luck.At the time I had information overload.I quote Bill James,the baseball stat guru when he finally had access to computers "We have reams of information.Now it will take 10 years to know what to do with it"!

Trust your own opinion Al.It's the only one you have.I think if any one of us can ramble on about a horse for more than 2 minutes,you love that horse and is worth a bet.If the odds are unsatisfying,don't.If they are big rejoice!

[Capper Al]

Once a capper really gets the hang of handicapping, he should at times know he is in a blind spot before betting. The awareness comes from experience. The other side of the coin is when we trust our intuition and pick a winner over and above our numeric ratings. This happens to me the most with jockey changes. If the jockey jumps ship then there is usually something up. Most of us use numbers from the form to at least pick contenders. The master capper knows both ends of the spectrum, the blind spot and the intuitive play. Knowing when to hold or play them makes all the difference in the end.