1/23 AQU Race 9.. hate seeing this

[FantasticDan]

Julie's Ina Frenzy has been in my virtual stable since she won me some cash with her nice maiden win back in August at Saratoga. It's also my wife's name (and yes, she is frequently frenzied). Today was her first start since then, and I noticed Dave Litfin's concerns in his DRF picks:

JULIE'S INA FRENZY has been sidelined over five months since pace-pressing maiden win over special-weight fillies at Saratoga; why is she in for $15k off a bullet gate work?

Julie's race result:

JULIE'S INA FRENZY bumped between rivals a couple of jumps out of the gate, went on with it to grab the early lead, showed the way, rated in the two path, was overhauled turning for home, stopped badly and was vanned off after the finish.

Sigh.. apparently Mr. Litfin's concerns were well-founded. Hope she'll be okay..

She was claimed by Randi Persaud, btw.

[rubicon55]

Julie's Ina Frenzy has been in my virtual stable since she won me some cash with her nice maiden win back in August at Saratoga. It's also my wife's name (and yes, she is frequently frenzied). Today was her first start since then, and I noticed Dave Litfin's concerns in his DRF picks:

JULIE'S INA FRENZY has been sidelined over five months since pace-pressing maiden win over special-weight fillies at Saratoga; why is she in for $15k off a bullet gate work?

Julie's race result:

JULIE'S INA FRENZY bumped between rivals a couple of jumps out of the gate, went on with it to grab the early lead, showed the way, rated in the two path, was overhauled turning for home, stopped badly and was vanned off after the finish.

Sigh.. apparently Mr. Litfin's concerns were well-founded. Hope she'll be okay..

She was claimed by Randi Persaud, btw.

I am always suspicous of a long layoff after an "easy" win. Been there done that. Good luck.

[The_Knight_Sky]

I am always suspicous of a long layoff after an "easy" win.
Been there done that. Good luck.




And I'm always suspicious of performances after overcoming
"bumps" at the gate or "stumbled" at the start.

If Carl Lewis and Ben Johnson set up in the blocks
and they "bumped" at the break wouldn't it be possible to have gotten hurt?
Performances in those situations simply cannot be a true effort.

[FantasticDan]

To borrow a term from NASCAR, "rubbin's racin". At least it often is in those initial yards out of the gate. Looking at the replay, I didn't see that she was bumped around a lot. And it wouldn't explain why she was dropped into that spot to begin with.

But yeah, anything's possible, and she could have been hurt at any point in the race. Or aggravated something.

[onefast99]

I am always suspicous of a long layoff after an "easy" win. Been there done that. Good luck.
Unless its a 2yo who may have bucked a shin. I also look at the trainer owner combo to see if they get aggressive with their horses.

[Fastracehorse]

I am always suspicous of a long layoff after an "easy" win. Been there done that. Good luck.

Layoffs are awesome, many horses are at their best fresh

Horses are like professional athletes, they run hurt

Obviously there are horses that need freshenings because of injury

it's not the easy win that''s the problem, although you are right, the freshening is because of injury; it's the drop that's the problem, it indicates a problem that hasn't been overcome

fffastt

[cnollfan]

I am always suspicous of a long layoff after an "easy" win. Been there done that. Good luck.

Database guys, any win % and ROI stats for horses with a 90 day + layoff after a win? 180 day + ? I would be most interested.

[rubicon55]

Database guys, any win % and ROI stats for horses with a 90 day + layoff after a win? 180 day + ? I would be most interested.

Not a database expert, however IMO I like horses coming back in 30 days or less and coming off a good race at or very near their peak figures. For me they seem to win more than their fair share of races. I will usually take a much closer look at them when they are over 30 days since last raced (unless the trainer is spotting the horse for a particular stakes race). More than 30-45 days may mean there were other issues in their last race. Double check at the paddock, parade and warm up to see if the horse is tight or not. IMHO current form is more reliable to me than long layoffs.

[cnollfan]

Not a database expert, however IMO I like horses coming back in 30 days or less and coming off a good race at or very near their peak figures. For me they seem to win more than their fair share of races. I will usually take a much closer look at them when they are over 30 days since last raced (unless the trainer is spotting the horse for a particular stakes race). More than 30-45 days may mean there were other issues in their last race. Double check at the paddock, parade and warm up to see if the horse is tight or not. IMHO current form is more reliable to me than long layoffs.

I am very skeptical of horses that lay off after a win. Not only does the layoff of an in-form horse suggest problems, but the win sitting at the top of the PPs does not help the odds. That's why I was interested in ROI stats for this profile.