AQU. Workout

[Pell Mell]

Just as a matter of curiosity, I was wondering how some of you might interpret the workout of Jan. 15 for the #7. She worked 4f in a tick under :49 3/56.
What I find interesting was that a stablemate worked on the same day a full 2 seconds slower. The stablemate won the 4th yesterday yesterday with room to spare although it was dropping in class.

I don't think this field is as good as it looks at first glance. RD sticks around to ride the #1 that just broke her maiden against cheaper so maybe Pucek can steal this one at nice odds. Any comments?

[Pell Mell]

Just noticed that the "Kiss of Death" picked the 7 so that eliminates that one. :rolleyes:

[HandyKapper]

"Kiss of Death". Looked at some handicapper's I thought you were speaking of, not sure who this would be. Maybe give us the initials.

[Pell Mell]

"Kiss of Death". Looked at some handicapper's I thought you were speaking of, not sure who this would be. Maybe give us the initials.

LC

[cj]

The horse doesn't look very good to me, and there is enough form to go on without trying to analyze a workout time.

[Pell Mell]

Evidently outran her numbers. ;)

[Tom]

I've got her work at 48.9.

[Pell Mell]

I've got her work at 48.9.

Isn't that something like :48 4/5 ?

Actually my point was that her work was 2 full seconds better than her stablemate. I don't know if they were in company or not but could have been. At any rate her stablemate won yesterday and I thought maybe, just maybe, this one was also ready but I guess that would be presumptuous on my part.

I guess I have to learn to be a little more technical in this environment.

[gm10]

Just as a matter of curiosity, I was wondering how some of you might interpret the workout of Jan. 15 for the #7. She worked 4f in a tick under :49 3/56.
What I find interesting was that a stablemate worked on the same day a full 2 seconds slower. The stablemate won the 4th yesterday yesterday with room to spare although it was dropping in class.

I don't think this field is as good as it looks at first glance. RD sticks around to ride the #1 that just broke her maiden against cheaper so maybe Pucek can steal this one at nice odds. Any comments?

Are you talking about Belle Muse? I had the highest last rating for that one (together with the 3 who finished 3rd). What were the odds?

The stablemate's workout was very slow, two seconds faster didn't mean much in this case.

[Tom]

Isn't that something like :48 4/5 ?



No, you said 49 3/56 - so 48.9 would be even better.

[Pell Mell]

No, you said 49 3/56 - so 48.9 would be even better.

Sorry Tom, I said a tick under 49...the 3/56 meant that her work was 3rd fastest of 56. My typo:blush:

[Pell Mell]

Are you talking about Belle Muse? I had the highest last rating for that one (together with the 3 who finished 3rd). What were the odds?

The stablemate's workout was very slow, two seconds faster didn't mean much in this case.

I guess you were the only one in town that had her rated the highest. That's why she went off at 9/1 and I guess her trainer wasn't impressed with her work.

I give up...some just don't get it.:bang:

[gm10]

I guess you were the only one in town that had her rated the highest. That's why she went off at 9/1 and I guess her trainer wasn't impressed with her work.

I give up...some just don't get it.:bang:

I can't help that can I? I just looked it up because you bring it up :confused:

Olive Eye and Belle Muse had both ran a 59 last, par for the race was 62. The winner ran 42 last (but a 71 on 2 Oct 2010). Computer made it (Belle Muse) 5/2 on my odds line.

Her workout was rated 84 which is pretty good. How do you know the trainer wasn't impressed?

[Pell Mell]

I can't help that can I? I just looked it up because you bring it up :confused:

Olive Eye and Belle Muse had both ran a 59 last, par for the race was 62. The winner ran 42 last (but a 71 on 2 Oct 2010). Computer made it 5/2 on my odds line.

Her rating was rated 84 which is pretty good. How do you know the trainer wasn't impressed?

The trainer statement was a bit of sarcasm.
I've been around a trainer or two in my day and would venture to say that 2 full seconds better than a superior horse in 4f is pretty damn impressive unless the other horse was eased, which hardly seems likely since it won it's next start.

I make a practise of NOT posting about handicapping because I don't want to argue about stuff. I just thought it might arouse a little interest in something OTHER than numbers but invariably the numbers game shows up.

Read my signature. ;)

[cj]

Evidently outran her numbers. ;)

That distant second? Hardly. You guys are acting like she was in it for the win.

She lost by what, 6? The winner had a clear edge over the runner up going in, and apparently going out as well.

Oh, and at no point did I mention numbers until well after you had.

[Pell Mell]

That distant second? Hardly. You guys are acting like she was in it for the win.

She lost by what, 6? The winner had a clear edge over the runner up going in, and apparently going out as well.

Oh, and at no point did I mention numbers until well after you had.

1- I didn't say you mentioned numbers.

2- The horse that won should have been the favorite, not the 3.

3- If she wasn't in it for the win then why was she running at all. I'll take 9/1 shots all day that are trying. She paid as much for place as the winner did to win. Thought this game was about value.

4- In your first post you said she didn't look very good to you which would imply that she didn't have a chance. Where did your highly reliable ratings have her rated? Next to last?

5- The name of the game is to make winning plays, anyway you can get them.

[cj]

1- I didn't say you mentioned numbers.

2- The horse that won should have been the favorite, not the 3.

3- If she wasn't in it for the win then why was she running at all. I'll take 9/1 shots all day that are trying. She paid as much for place as the winner did to win. Thought this game was about value.

4- In your first post you said she didn't look very good to you which would imply that she didn't have a chance. Where did your highly reliable ratings have her rated? Next to last?

5- The name of the game is to make winning plays, anyway you can get them.

I wasn't knocking your post, I thought it was a good one.

She ran second, but really, she was well back. Why get carried away? I was looking at it from a win perspective, and if you only mention one horse, I have nothing else to go on. I agreed the Dominguez horse was bad, not a contender.

I had her rated in the middle of the field. I had the 3, 5, and 8 clearly faster, though the 8 obviously had some questions on current form. So, I did not have her as a win contender.

I had the 1, 4, 6, and 10 as clearly slower. If you asked could she hit the board, I would have said sure.

[Pell Mell]

I wasn't knocking your post, I thought it was a good one.

She ran second, but really, she was well back. Why get carried away? I was looking at it from a win perspective, and if you only mention one horse, I have nothing else to go on. I agreed the Dominguez horse was bad, not a contender.

I had her rated in the middle of the field. I had the 3, 5, and 8 clearly faster, though the 8 obviously had some questions on current form. So, I did not have her as a win contender.

I had the 1, 4, 6, and 10 as clearly slower. If you asked could she hit the board, I would have said sure.

Sorry if you think I got carried away. The object of my post was just to try to show that there are different ways to look at a race, which in this case, happened to be that the trainer is live with the horses he shipped in.

[cj]

Sorry if you think I got carried away. The object of my post was just to try to show that there are different ways to look at a race, which in this case, happened to be that the trainer is live with the horses he shipped in.

I said I liked it, I just thought you were concentrating on the workout angle, not the trainer. Sorry if I got that wrong, keep them coming.

[AgainstAllOdds]

If works meant anything, then the 7th at Santa Anita yesterday should have been a shoo-in for Ventana who worked from the gate 1:10 for 6 fg. I'm guessing the race was left on the track in the workouts because he finished right ahead of Smiling Tiger who I thought had run his best race last out and wouldn't finish in the money....that means they finished just about dead last and two longshots came in, which is unusual for Santa Anita.