Defense still wins

[Valuist]

Arguably, the 4 top defenses are still alive. And the offensive minded teams like New England, New Orleans, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Indy....they gone!

Defense still wins in the NFL. Used to be that way, and it still is.

[slew101]

I'm not a believer in the Green Bay defense, although they are good enough to win behind that offense. Matthews has been a huge addition and Woodson is always dangerous. But if I have to listen to Troy Aikman blow Dom Capers for another two weeks, I'll go nuts.

We've all watched the Packers the last few weeks, and I have to ask any Pack fans. Does AJ Hawk ever make a play? I never hear his name called during a broadcast after the introductions. It appears he's calling the signals in the huddle but he never makes a play. You hear Matthews name called 20 times in a game.

I'd rank Pitt the best defense left, small drop to the Jets, big drop to the Packers and Bears.

[Zydeco]

We call him AJ "Best seat in the House" Hawk because he is so close to the action he can help the players up who made the tackle! But seriously....they shut out the Jets this year, held the Bears to 3 points in the finale and I think held 6 teams to 7 points or under this year. We'll see this weekend..that's why they play the games.

[PhantomOnTour]

The four remaining teams all rank in the top 6 in the NFL in scoring defense. The highest ranked scoring offense still remaining is Green Bay at #10.

[Zydeco]

Hopefully that equals a Green Bay victory. Is GB really a 3 point favorite on the road? In the NFC championship game???

[Valuist]

Think a strong case could be made that GB is the top defense:

Since Halloween, in 11 games they've given up a total of 141 points (12.8/game). In 7 of the 11 games, they allowed 16 points or less. Take out the New England game and they allowed 110 points in 10 games. Clear #1 in QB rating against (67) and second in sacks. Pittsburgh is the clear # 1 D against the run and also had one more sack than Green Bay. The Jets are good but statistically not as good as GB or Pittsburgh.

[CBedo]

Hopefully that equals a Green Bay victory. Is GB really a 3 point favorite on the road? In the NFC championship game???It will be interesting to see where it ends up. At first glance three sounds off, but if you think about it, Atlanta was a 1.5 pt fav and I think Atlanta is better than Chicago. Then add to that the Green Bay momentum of how well they seem to be playing. Three sounds about right to me that way, but I'm the worst NFL bettor in the world so it I think it's right, it's def not!

[rastajenk]

I heard a stat, more like an observation really, on ESPN a couple weeks ago that, that the Packers, at no time during the entire season, was ever more than one score behind. They were always in every game. That feat, it seems to me, would take a pretty good defense to achieve. It also says something about their special teams' ability to keep things in the middle of the field.

[pandy]

The Packers D has come a long way. Remember last year's championship game with the Cardinals? Arizona scored 51 pts against the Pack, and had 531 yards. I don't think they punted once.

The great equalizer for Green Bay is Rogers, he's amazing.

[PhantomOnTour]

If the Steelers can get to Sanchez and force mistakes they will win. If they don't then I foresee a loss.

The Jets are loaded with big time players on both sides of the ball. Jerry Jones should take a lesson from them on how to go get players...Santonio, Cromartie, Jason Taylor, Braylan, Bart Scott, LaDanian etc...they didn't draft any of those guys.

The Steelers? As a fan, I never thought this bunch was a Super Bowl squad all year long. Two starting O-linemen and stud DE Smith out, plus the loss of Santonio. However, now that we stand on the brink of the Bowl I gotta start believin. Offensively it's all about Big Ben...we go as he goes.

As they say in England, "It's itchy bum time."

[pandy]

There have been several games over the past few years where I underestimated the Steelers, usually after a bad game where their offensive line looked horrible, but they always play well when it counts.

I think the Jets obviously have more talent, as you said, and I agree, Sanchez has to play a good game. The key to me is the Jets pass defense. The last two games Brady and Manning had trouble finding open receivers and they're the type of qbs that don't need a wide open receiver, so you know the coverage was very tight. To me that gives the edge to the Jets. Everyone always talks about the running game, but almost all meaningful plays are passes, especially in the red zone.

[mountainman]

I think you guys are slightly overrating the jet's talent. Tomlinson was thought over the hill until his semi-resurgence, and Holmes has been more than eclipsed by Wallace, his replacement. Remember as well that both guys were gladly cut loose by their former teams.

In my opinion, Big Ben gives pittsburgh a clear edge on the offensive side, while the steeler defense is unrivaled in football. Special- teams play-traditionally a steeler weakness- could be a jet's advantage, as might the respective secondaries. Pittsburgh's d-backs tend to position well off the ball, allow the reception, and then make the receiver sorry that his dad met his mom. With those kind of hits now outlawed, steeler-style pass coverage is becoming obsolete. Since pittsburgh is thus vulnerable to short stuff, i do look for Sanchez to have a respectable game.

Overall, though, the steelers figure to win handily. Please keep in mind that i'm EXTREMELY biased. ( and also the same guy who guaranteed that Blame would be named hoy)

[The_Knight_Sky]

The Jets are loaded with big time players on both sides of the ball. Jerry Jones should take a lesson from them on how to go get players...Santonio, Cromartie, Jason Taylor, Braylan, Bart Scott, LaDanian etc...they didn't draft any of those guys.




All of them, save for Bart Scott were unwanted by their previous teams.
Jets lucked out when they produced.

The credit should go to GM Mike Tannenbaum for bringing them to East Rutherford.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Since pittsburgh is thus vulnerable to short stuff,
i do look for Sanchez to have a respectable game.



I don't follow Pittsburgh too much but Sanchez needs to get the short passing
game going early. They most probably won't be able to run like they did at Foxboro. That means TE Dustin Keller and Ben Hartsock and even LT out of the backfield.

If Schottenheimer calls for more slants to Santonio, I'll assume Braylon Edwards would go deep to draw two defenders and clear the middle.

Sanchez' problem throughout the season has been throwing these short passes from the pocket. I think he's not tall enough to see over the Offensive Line. If he rolls out with a bit of time, he'll avoid the batted balls at the line of scrimmage.

Man, I rambled on too much about the game plan.
Back to work. ;)

[The_Knight_Sky]

I heard a stat, more like an observation really, on ESPN a couple weeks ago that, that the Packers, at no time during the entire season, was ever more than one score behind. They were always in every game. That feat, it seems to me, would take a pretty good defense to achieve. It also says something about their special teams' ability to keep things in the middle of the field.




That's why I like the Pack to take control from the very beginning of the game.

And Mr. Rodgers is on fire.
Bears defense can't stop him. They only hope to contain him. :D
And that's not going to be good enough.

[PhantomOnTour]

All of them, save for Bart Scott were unwanted by their previous teams.
Jets lucked out when they produced.

The credit should go to GM Mike Tannenbaum for bringing them to East Rutherford.
That sure is a lotta luck because they are all producing. Pittsburgh parted with Santonio because of his 4 game suspension, the fact that he would be a free agent after this season, and they have other more imporatant guys to sign. Plus, the team image was in the dump after the Ben thing and they didn't want a dope smoker on the team as well. Believe me, they would have kept him if they could.

[The_Knight_Sky]

That sure is a lotta luck because they are all producing. Pittsburgh parted with Santonio because of his 4 game suspension, the fact that he would be a free agent after this season, and they have other more imporatant guys to sign. Plus, the team image was in the dump after the Ben thing and they didn't want a dope smoker on the team as well. Believe me, they would have kept him if they could.


I heard that about the image thing Pittsburgh was dealing with.
But Rex-clamation projects have a way of working out.

Even Braylon Edwards wanted to quit in Cleveland after his contract was up.
Now he Tweets... I'll do anything to stay a part of the NY JETS.

Hopefully he'll get his DUI thing put away with lessons learned.
He's got talent, and suddenly hands as good as Allstate. :ThmbUp:

[PhantomOnTour]

I heard that about the image thing Pittsburgh was dealing with.
But Rex-clamation projects have a way of working out.

Even Braylon Edwards wanted to quit in Cleveland after his contract was up.
Now he Tweets... I'll do anything to stay a part of the NY JETS.

Hopefully he'll get his DUI thing put away with lessons learned.
He's got talent, and suddenly hands as good as Allstate. :ThmbUp:
I hear ya...I know Braylan wasn't liked in Cleveland and Chargers fans had enough of the diva-ish LT. Somehow they've come together for Rex, who gets all of this guys respect for keeping Sanchez outta the media crosshairs as best he can.
I love my Steelers, but we are in for a brawl.

[The_Knight_Sky]

I love my Steelers, but we are in for a brawl.




Definitely intense. Smashmouth football. Under 38.

I just hope Ed Hochuli's crew doesn't over do it.
And they usually do with the flags. Let's them play.

The team with the least mistakes will be standing.
I hear there is a new version of Lamar Hunt trophy to be doled out
after the game. And ex-Jet Dennis Byrd will be at the coin toss ceremony.

The numbers for this crew speaks for itself:
http://www.steelerfury.com/content/scouting-zebras-1

[Zydeco]

I heard a stat, more like an observation really, on ESPN a couple weeks ago that, that the Packers, at no time during the entire season, was ever more than one score behind. They were always in every game. That feat, it seems to me, would take a pretty good defense to achieve. It also says something about their special teams' ability to keep things in the middle of the field.
Yes, the Pack never trailed by more than seven points at any time this season. Lost six games by a total of 20 points (4 games by 3 and 2 games by 4 points).
First game at Chicago(week 3) the Pack had 18 accepted penalties , a team record, and James Jones fumbled with 2:42 remaining which allowed da Bears to kick game winning field goal. The referee in that game, Terry McCauly, will be reffing the game Sunday. Go Pack Go!

[cj's dad]

All of them, save for Bart Scott were unwanted by their previous teams.
Jets lucked out when they produced.

The credit should go to GM Mike Tannenbaum for bringing them to East Rutherford.

I'm pretty sure that Bart Scott was not able to be signed by the Ravens in the at the time salary cap structure - it happens all the time !!

[The_Knight_Sky]

I'm pretty sure that Bart Scott was not able to be signed by the Ravens in the at the time salary cap structure - it happens all the time !!

Yes something like that.
I remember the headlines when he signed with the Jets that
new coach Rex was a great incentive to wear the green and white.

A funny article by Rick Reilly http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/UBGX/row2d.gif (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=6041033) on why he loves and hates the Jets:

I hate the New York Jets because they don't practice in New York and they don't play in New York. Fireman Ed? Grew up as a Dolphins fan. And J-E-T-S? Really? You're thrilled with yourselves for spelling a four-letter word? Try cheering for Our Lady of the Immaculate Conception.

I love the Jets because if they beat Pittsburgh at Heinz Field, it will be the greatest road campaign since Genghis Khan. To beat Peyton Manning, Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, all from hotels? That's re-sick-ulous. Only two wild-card teams have won a Super Bowl while never playing a playoff game at home. Those teams were the 2005 Steelers and 2007 Giants, and their roads to the title were I-80 compared to the jungle the Jets are hacking through.

[Valuist]

I heard a stat, more like an observation really, on ESPN a couple weeks ago that, that the Packers, at no time during the entire season, was ever more than one score behind. They were always in every game. That feat, it seems to me, would take a pretty good defense to achieve. It also says something about their special teams' ability to keep things in the middle of the field.

What you heard was right but the Packers special teams are very bad. Thats one area where the Bears have a clear edge. I think its pretty safe that Rodgers won't go 31 of 36 for 350 yards this weekend. The Bears pass D is better than Atlanta's, the Packers won't be playing in a dome, and the terrible footing is likely to slow down the deep passes. That said, I think the Packers win anyways but definitely won't be a blowout. The line is still 3 at Bookmaker.com, although that is at -135.

[The_Knight_Sky]

.... the terrible footing is likely to slow down the deep passes.



Forecasts:
Chicago: Cloudy and a high of 20
Pittsburgh: Cloudy and a high of 18

This is Green Bay Packers type of weather.
It'll probably be colder than 20 in Pittsburgh by gametime.

Both stadiums do not have FieldTurf so the ground could be hard as a rock.
Mike Wallace finding a "track bias" and overcoming Revis would not be good. :D

[Valuist]

Soldier Field is considered the worst playing surface in the NFL. Its tore up in so many spots, slick in others. The are a great candidate for field turf but the Chicago Park District won't do it. Actually, its ridiculous there isn't a retractable dome so the field could be used for conventions, concerts, and other events year round but thats a whole 'nother topic.

The teams are lucky the game wasn't today. It was 7 below this morning with a wind chill of 25 below.....

[Ocala Mike]

[QUOTE=The_Knight_Sky


Mike Wallace finding a "track bias" and overcoming Revis would not be good. :D[/QUOTE]


No, it would not be good for Jets fans, but many better than him have tried and came up short. No vacancies on Revis Island. Believe Big Ben will be looking elsewhere.


Ocala Mike

[pandy]

Tough games and I'm not going to bet this weekend, but I'll pick the JETS + 3 1/2 and GREEN BAY - 3 1/2

Jets have the better offensive line to protect Sanchez, their pass coverage has been unbelievable, they have excellent special teams, more offensive speed. Steelers have an edge at QB and field goal kicker, should be a great game on a cold night.

Green Bay's edge is their pass rush, 47 sacks during the season, against a team that is the worst in the league at protecting the passer. Because of that, Cutler is likely to make some mistakes. The key to the game for the Bears is the running game. If they can run the ball they have a chance. They have to control the clock to keep the high scoring Packers passing game off the field.

[headhawg]

They have to control the clock to keep the high scoring Packers passing game off the field.Just to remind everyone that in Week 17 -- in a game that GB needed a win to make the playoffs -- their "high-flying" offense scored an astounding 10 points against the beloved Bear, a team which already had the #2 seed locked up and couldn't move up.

I like the fact that people are loving GB in this one. Even I picked them to make the Super Bowl. But I will take the Bears and the 3 1/2.

[pandy]

Just to remind everyone that in Week 17 -- in a game that GB needed a win to make the playoffs -- their "high-flying" offense scored an astounding 10 points against the beloved Bear, a team which already had the #2 seed locked up and couldn't move up.

I like the fact that people are loving GB in this one. Even I picked them to make the Super Bowl. But I will take the Bears and the 3 1/2.

That's a good point and it is a little disturbing to see so many people on the Packers bandwagon, usually better to go against the crowd. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if the Bears win, but I think the Packers pass rush could be the difference.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Just to remind everyone that in Week 17 -- in a game that GB needed a win to make the playoffs -- their "high-flying" offense scored an astounding 10 points against the beloved Bear, a team which already had the #2 seed locked up and couldn't move up.

I like the fact that people are loving GB in this one. Even I picked them to make the Super Bowl. But I will take the Bears and the 3 1/2.


An aberration? A fluke?

What's more important in handicapping? An isolated game in the past such as the 45-3 drubbing of the Jets by New England or how well the Jets have been playing lately? I'd have to say the latter.

Right now Green Bay is a buzzsaw.
By the same token, the Jets defeat of Pittsburgh in the regular season doesn't mean much to me. It's all how they match up on Sunday.
Who will "bring it"? Who will execute flawlessly?