Jimmy Winkfield States Winner Fort Hughes

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

WOW 6fl in 108.33

[theguarantee]

Lost my ass on Rift there. Can't believe that performance.

[toussaud]

yeah I remember fh's maiden race, horse has some serious jet packs.

Just please don't' try to stretch him out.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

I didn't see it, was it a bad Dominguez ride at Philly, or too confident?

[MickJ26]

I was looking at the PP's.
Salty group of 3yo sprinters.

[The Bit]

The race at the Pha went a bit slow early and they flew home. FH was stuck out 4 wide. Horse that beat'em that day just ran a credible 2nd here. FH was 2nd off layoff too and KM is almost 30% 2nd off layoff if my memory is correct.

[cj]

The race at the Pha went a bit slow early and they flew home. FH was stuck out 4 wide. Horse that beat'em that day just ran a credible 2nd here. FH was 2nd off layoff too and KM is almost 30% 2nd off layoff if my memory is correct.

I think the race was impressive, but I also think the timer malfunctioned. I timed it a few times and the 1/4 is a second or so too fast.

[PhantomOnTour]

I think the race was impressive, but I also think the timer malfunctioned. I timed it a few times and the 1/4 is a second or so too fast.
You're most likely correct. The first two fractions are so overwhelmingly fast compared to the other four sprints that day...22.21-44.67. The 1/4 split is a full second faster than the next best and the pace call is over 2 seconds faster than the next best. You don't often see a horse go that fast to the pace call and come home in less than 24 seconds.
The Winkfield had the highest par fig and should have been the fastest run sprint that day, but this seems a bit outta whack. The final fig variant was pretty straightforward, but arriving at an accurate pace variant is tricky.

[classhandicapper]

I think the race was impressive, but I also think the timer malfunctioned. I timed it a few times and the 1/4 is a second or so too fast.

I sometimes find it amazing how often we discuss the times and figures of stakes races in this forum. Seriously, it seems like there's a controversy or at least a legitimate debate somewhere between 25%-50% of the time. And that doesn't even count the times there are huge discrepancies among figure makers that tend to not contribute here like TG and Ragozin.

You know that figures are a major part of my own handicapping, but doesn't it sometimes strike you funny that this topic comes up so often and people still get into heated debates about how good horses are over a couple of Beyer points either way when accuracy is only 1/2 the problem. :lol:

[illinoisbred]

I think the race was impressive, but I also think the timer malfunctioned. I timed it a few times and the 1/4 is a second or so too fast.
Out of curiosity I timed the 1st 1/4 3 times and came up with 23.31,23.37,and 23.42.

[cj]

Out of curiosity I timed the 1st 1/4 3 times and came up with 23.31,23.37,and 23.42.

We are nearly identical.

[PICSIX]

We are nearly identical.

Is this done via replay? If so, how do you account for run up times?

Thanks,

Mike

[cj]

Is this done via replay? If so, how do you account for run up times?

Thanks,

Mike

Yes, using replays. The run up is known.

However, I have since used another computer with better video editing software and looked at replays from several inner dirt races at 6f to get a better handle on them. I think the time is accurate. I was using my other computer jumped to a false conclusion.

Backtracking from the finish by the posted final time gives a pretty accurate picture of where the timing begins, within a tenth of a second. The Jimmy Winkfield is right there with all the others I timed. The same goes for the first 1/4. The 1/2 is not nearly as easy to time so I didn't bother.

[The Bit]

Are you guys saying the race at Philly was mistimed or the Aqu? Because if the race at Philly is off, and that quarter is a second fast, than that makes the 2nd half of that race that much more impressive.

[cj]

Are you guys saying the race at Philly was mistimed or the Aqu? Because if the race at Philly is off, and that quarter is a second fast, than that makes the 2nd half of that race that much more impressive.

Aqueduct, but as I mentioned I no longer think it is off. I spent a lot of time on it because you want to be sure with lightly raced horses. As a figure maker, there isn't much more to go on.

[cj]

If you want to see a ridiculous time at Philly, look at the posted 1/2 mile time for the 3rd race on Sunday. It is WAY wrong.

[classhandicapper]

It looks like Beyer gave the race a 104. If so, it appears as though he trimmed the figure. And on the debating goes....

[cj]

It looks like Beyer gave the race a 104. If so, it appears as though he trimmed the figure. And on the debating goes....

I would say there is a lot of argument when figures are assigned, but very, very rarely do those that cry a race shouldn't be broken out come back to claim victory. You know why that is of course. It is because the "broken out" figure is usually going to be much closer to reality then accepting the clock as gospel.

It isn't even the clock always, as I said here I think it is right this time, and most times. Weather changes and tracks change. Those thinking they don't and making figures will wind up finding another hobby very quickly.

I should add I am much more reluctant to break out numbers than other good figure makers, but when I do it I have very good data to back up my decision.