Charting a method

[andicap]

I never do this, but it's not all backfitting so I'm going to track a really simplistic method that has got to be meet specific. I won't go into details but you only bet horses at 9-1 and below.

At Belmont last 3 weeks its 16-75 with about a 30% ROI and some long losing streaks but of course no "Bombs." Betting below odds-on has had little effect either way so it's easier just to bet all at 9-1 or below. Averages 5 picks a day although can be more than 1 in a race.

I haven't done any dirt/turf separation analysis yet or sprint/route or young/old. Figure sample too small.

Here are today's picks (I'm not betting them -- no redboarding, just following a method -- I have no reason to cheat/lie, etc. I have seen NO results from today yet -- waiting for the 5:30 p show)

Bet all at 9-1 and under.

1. NONE
2. None
3. 10, Ah Wildneress.
9. Real Risk
4. None
5. NONE
6. 2. Benoit (20/1 ML tho)
7. 3. Geometry (odds on likely)
8. NONE
9. 7. Edgefield (20/1 ML)

Much lighter than average than usual.

On a handicapping basis, besides Geometry, only Ah Wilderness really has a legitmiate shot, but this method is based on very little handicapping.

[andicap]

Ah Wilderness won and paid $9.60
Geometry lost at 4-5.

others are longshots or scratched.
Will post again today.

17-77 now through 16 days at Belmont, rain or shine. ROI about 32% give or take a couple of points.

[andicap]

Posting earlier today...again horses 9-1 and under. (with a bias against playing odds on, but will include all in performance)

Belmont

1. 3, Starship and 4 Tony's G (15-1 ML, likely not a play)
2. 10. Mrs. Karen (20/1 ML)
3. 4. Paris and 6, Aventura and 1 Kid Kael and 2 Scott (Yes, four horses, yes, this seems silly, but a system is a system until I refine it. )

4. 7. Service and 6, Moonlight (10/1 ML)
5. 4. Imperial (15/1 ML)
6. 3. Halo
7. none
8. 3. Kazoo, 6, Justification.
9. 5. See you
9. Native
8 Born to
6 Cozy (20/1)

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by andicap
Ah Wilderness won and paid $9.60
Geometry lost at 4-5.

others are longshots or scratched.
Will post again today.

17-77 now through 16 days at Belmont, rain or shine. ROI about 32% give or take a couple of points.

Andy, glad to see you keeping score. Makes it much more interesting.

Good luck

Joe M

[andicap]

Originally posted by andicap
Posting earlier today...again horses 9-1 and under. (with a bias against playing odds on, but will include all in performance)

Belmont

1. 3, Starship and 4 Tony's G (15-1 ML, likely not a play)
2. 10. Mrs. Karen (20/1 ML)
3. 4. Paris and 6, Aventura and 1 Kid Kael and 2 Scott (Yes, four horses, yes, this seems silly, but a system is a system until I refine it. )

4. 7. Service and 6, Moonlight (10/1 ML)
5. 4. Imperial (15/1 ML)
6. 3. Halo
7. none
8. 3. Kazoo, 6, Justification.
9. 5. See you
9. Native
8 Born to
6 Cozy (20/1)

------
Results

1 Starshp nipped at wire at 2-1.
3. 3 plays and I made money! Aventura won at 13.80
8. 2 plays, lost at wire again.
9. 3 plays and another profit. with Born to winning at 9.60.

9 plays. $18 bet. Return was $23.40 for $30 profit.

record to date
19 wins in 86 plays (not races) ROI still at 30% or a little above.
When I corporate regular handicapping into the method, the winners usually are "contenders," but the longer shots are certainly not among the top 2 "figure" horses at first glance.

I'll go back and track % of winning races since I was 2-9 today, but really 2 wins in 4 races.

[andicap]

Friday's picks. (BTW, late scratches are at nyra.com, but not on equibase.com -- nice going Equibase.)
again has to be 9-1 or under

Looks ugly today. Likly only 4 runners, 3 of which are going to be under 2-1 or even odds-on. Still, we persevere.

1. 6. Aggressive (15/1 ML)
2 None
3. Arturo
4. NONE
5. NONE
6. 12 ravidas (but 20/1 ML)
7.NONE
8. 1. Little (likely odds on)
5. Mary Go (10/1 ML)

9.
4, 6, 7 and 8
(7 and 8 likely to be too high)

[andicap]

Didn't look at weekend's cards, so here's Monday's picks

1 too many FTS
2nd. None
3rd. FTSs
4th. 3. Alluring
5th. NONE and FTS
6th 4, transparent (15/1, probably not)
9 Star Ta (6/1, maybe)

7th. Silk (12/1 ML)
8th (Jason's (12/1 ML)
Black M (10/1 M)
9th. None
10th NONE

Yeesh. probably 2 picks at 9-1 and under.