Freehold Picks, Mon. January 17, 2011

[Teach]

By popular request (today being Martin Luther King, Jr. day), I'm posting my Freehold picks on Monday Afternoon Live! See you about 12:30 p.m.

Teach

[teddy]

pick 5 carryover... go for it.

[cliffyy]

lets do this :jump:

[Teach]

Live from the home of "Afternoon Delight," Freehold Raceway in Freehold, New Jersey...It's M.A.L., "Monday Afternoon Live"...with your host, Walt...a.k.a. "Teach," "The Harness Maven," With guest appearances by: "The Voice," Larry Lederman; Catello "The Cat-Man" Manzi; The "Pandy Man," "Gentleman Jim" Pantaleano; Pat "The Harvard Man" Berry; "Eric the Red" Abbatiello; Harry "The Falcon" Landy; Steve Smith; Jack Baggitt, Jr; Shaun Vallee; "Yogi" Sheridan; Vinny Ginsburg, Matt Romano and a host of others.


Race One:

#1 Dutch's Gal will have to fall down to lose this race. The odds will be abysmally low. This is a well-bred Jate Lobell, Western Ideal 3-year-old filly. Last year, as a two-year-old, she knocked heads with some of the best two-year-old fillies in harness racing (last Sept., she finished fifth to Kill Time who set a NJSS record with a time of 1:54.3). What's she doing in this 4-thousand maiden race! Her recent "Big M" qualifier was nuthin' to write home about...but, it didn't have to be. Pat Berry should be able to easily guide this distaffer to the winner's circle. As cited: She just needs to stay flat. Underneath: #6 Poison Ivy ("Late at night while you're sleepin' poison ivy comes a creepin'..). This horse won her recent qualifier in decent time. Yes, she does move from the "comfy" two-hole to the more challenging six-hole. How much difference will that make? Also, if this horse doesn't leave, she could become --- an "also-ran". Much will depend on what Eric Abbatiello does at the start. #3 Troubled Waters "broke" last time. If she doesn't do "The Freehold Two-Step" (not to be confused with the "Mashed Potato"), she might just be part of the mix. Two races back, in late December, this horse, the oldest in the field, also finished off the board. Yet, prior to that, she strung together four-straight hit-the-board finishes against slightly stronger company. One caveat: 0-for-16 last year; 0-for28, lifetime. #8 Mimi Imfurst is a lightly raced Big Towner-bred filly who competed against top-notch competition at Tioga last summer. The horse didn't do much in those upstate New York stakes races; yet, her owners must have thought enough of her or they wouldn't have entered her. The horse hasn't shown much since (one second-place finish in late Dec.). And, I might add that starting from the extreme outside post is no bargain. Yet, on her best, she might just add value to an exotic. Finally, #5 Lightning Lucy might be able to pick up the pieces in a super.

[cliffyy]

nice :jump:

[Teach]

Race Two:

I'm going with #5 Keep On Amazin. Why? Because the horse, although finishing fourth last time, did run a decent race. Last fall, this horse was running against much stiffer competition (he even finished second in 43-hundred company). Underneath: I like #1 Continental Cam. He would appear to be the horse to beat. Yet, let's look at the pros and cons. First, the pros: He's hit the board in three of his last five (a win and two seconds); He's drawn the inside starting post -- always a plus. He's driven by the capable Harry Landy. He turned in a lifetime mark of 1:54.1 as a 9-year-old at Freehold last year. He has lifetime earnings of nearly 200K. The cons: The horse acts like "The Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde". Last week, the horse ran against slightly tougher company and finished next-to-last. A week earlier, this same horse won by nearly seven lengths from the same starting post on a good track. Yes, although I'm predicting this horse to be in the mix (I'd prefer an "off" track), I'm still concerned he may play a bridesmaid. Which horse do we get today? Dr. Jekyll, or Mr. Hyde? #2 Life And Taxes looks like a "Swing Horse" in this race. He should hit the board. The horse hasn't shown much in recent starts; yet, I believe the horse is most capable of being part of the mix. He has faced much better in the past. I think today's race is a wake-up call. #3 OhWhatAKnight ("Oh, what a night. Late December back in '63... Frankie Valli and The Four Seasons; "Jersey Boys"). The switch to Jack Baggitt, Jr. is a plus. Yes, little to show in recent races...but, in this company, with Baggitt in the sulky, the horse is worthy of consideration. Finally, #6 RC's Beach Boy with Vinny Ginsburg could do little out of the seven-hole in his last start. On that occasion, the horse was sent to the top only to end of finishing off the board. That race might have tightened this horse up. I wouldn't be surprised if he picked up the pieces in a super.

[cliffyy]

can you please post more than one race ,,, so i can play some pick 3,s and pick 5,s

[Teach]

Race Three:

In this third-race trot, I'm going for a telephone-numbers pick: #7 Manlind with Jack Baggitt, Jr. (he just won the previous race). He could take it all despite an outside starting post. The horse has hit the board in all three of his recent starts. That bodes well. I believe that this horse might just be there at the wire. . Underneath: Another bomb: #5 Wygant Pearl. This horse is a maiden. Taylor Gower probably could have opted for an easier race. But, he didn't. Does that mean that he believes his horse can handle this company? Gower handles trotters very well. On her best, this horse might just be right there. I'm willing to take a shot that the horse hits the board in this anything-can-happen race. #3 Grand Victory with Newton "Yogi" Sheridan has been very consistent. He's logical. He's hit the board in nine of his eleven 2010 starts. He did finish fourth in a very recent effort. That was from a six-hole starting slot; he now moves into the three-post. That should help.He looks very playable in exactas and trifectas. #1 My Mac won his last at Northfield (prior to that he was racing on the Ohio Fair circuit). He does have the services of Cat Manzi. That's a big plus. Yet, the horse will have to stay flat (he shows a few "breaks" on his form). IF the horse stays trotting, he's a factor with these; IF he doesn't, he'll be an "also-ran". Frankly, I believe that this horse may be both overbet and vulnerable. #6 VeebaLikesToRockit is a consistent sort who's hit the board in four of her last five. In a race where there is the possibility of one, two, or even three horses "breaking," a horse that stays flat is a big plus. This horse looks like the kind who can keep trotting.

[Teach]

Race Four:

#4 Darko gets my nod in this highly competitive race. Steve Smith is most capable in the bike. He's driving a horse that can close in a race that's filled with front-running types. I believe the race sets up for this horse to make a closing brush at the top of the stretch and - if everything works out -- get all the enchiladas. The horse has hit the board in four of her last five. Underneath: #5 Annika S (Svenska flicka) appears to be in sharp form. This Morning Breeze-bred mare can close in a race that appears to be begging for late-charging horses.. I believe she has as good a chance as any in this field to hit the board. The pace will make the race. #6 Rusty's Martini is another horse who should be closing in the stretch. I believe this Cole Muffler-bred mare is worthy of consideration. Another horse that catches my interest, despite the outside post, is the #8 One Fifty West. He easily won his last, albeit from the four-slot. He now draws "the grandstand side." It can be a formidable task to overcome that eight-slot; yet, this horse may be able to do it. "Cat" Manzi in the bike is a plus. The question: Can the "Hall-of-Famer" put this horse on the lead, or tuck him into a comfortable spot near the front of the field without exerting too much of the horse's energy? Finally, #2 Sporty Callie won her last in this company. She should be near the front as the pacers reach the quarter-pole.

[Teach]

Race Five:

I'm going to try to beat the chalk with the rail (pylon) horse, #1 Ens Gliding Condor. Jack Baggitt, Jr. in the bike is a plus. This horse, in recent starts, has had difficult outside posts; he now moves inside. This horse is capable of doing 2:00 and change. That would seem to be good enough to prevail over this field. Underneath: #4 Ego Sum gets Cat Manzi. That should make a very big difference. This horse fits well in this field. Although he's only hit the board once in his last five tries, the addition of Manzi in the sulky and a manageable field (he's faced better in the past) makes this horse the one to beat. #5 Classic Scent was 0-for-22 in 2010. Yet, having said that, the horse has hit the board in his last three. He has an "early turn of foot" that should put this Perfect Spiral-bred gelding on or near the lead. This horse just might hang on and hit the tote. #6 Our Little Dip is a front-running type. He's been second and third in his last two. The horse merits consideration in your exotics. Finally, #8 Keystone Howie with Steve Smith has won his last two. Yes, he did that from "inside" posts (he now draws outside). Even so, this horse might just pick up the pieces in a superfecta.

[Teach]

Race Six:

My choice in this race is the #1 Trey with the man from Jackson, NJ (wasn't he originally from the Worcester, MA area?) with the checkerboard colors, Shaun Vallee. Vallee is most capable. He should be able to guide this 5-year-old Direct Scooter-bred gelding into the winner's circle. On New Year's Day, this horse was rushed to the front from the six-hole in a blistering 27.2. Needless to say that opening-panel fraction took too much out of the horse and he had nothing left in the tank for the stretch run. This time, the horse draws inside. Shaun Vallee should have an easier time putting this horse on or near the lead without too much exertion. If he can then ration out his speed, he could then prance over to the winner's circle to have his picture taken. Underneath: I see the main threat to be the #2 Chris with Jack Baggitt, Jr. This horse cannot be ignored. He fits like a glove. If my top pick makes any mistakes, this horse will be right there to come "zooming on by." Although he hasn't hit the board in his last two, he had a four-race win skein this past fall. #3 Real Platinum is another major threat (I believe "the inside" is the place to be in this race). I must admit that this horse is also capable of springing the upset. He should not be ignored in your exactas and trifectas. Vinny Ginsburg, an up-and-coming young driver, is certainly capable of putting this horse in the mix. #5 Herzon with Eric Abbatiello has returned to Freehold after a lengthy stay in the state in Delaware. He hit the board in his first Freehold start; he's most capable of repeating that effort. Finally, #6 Artic Blue with Steve Smith has hit the board in four of his last six. The horse could do nothing against slightly better competition in his last (he finished sixth). Well, he's now back with the kind he can easily contend with. If the horse can pick up some "live" cover as they head past the half-mile marker, he might just end up seeing his number in lights -- on the infield tote board.

[Teach]

Race Seven:

I'm going to try and spring an upset with #2 Bearer's Suprize. His last race was an abomination. The horse got parked three-wide going for the lead and ended up dead last (His time wasn't even posted). But, today's another day. "What sort of day is it? A day like all days. Filled with those events that alter and illuminate our times...only, you are there." This horse is capable. So is Pat Berry. If he's right, I believe he can win. He certainly has a better starting post than he's had in some time. I believe he's worth a shot. Underneath: the major danger is #3 Hona Suga with Steve Smith. This horse has hit the board in all four of his last four starts. He's certainly usable in your exacta and trifecta plays. #4 Blue Sky De Vie with Harry Landy runs evenily. He should be in good position to mount a charge down the stretch. He was 0 for 11 last year; yet he recently ran a string of four straight third-place finishes. He merits consideration in your gimmicks. #4 S J Jasper hasn't hit the board recently. Yet, to complete a tri or super... Yes, that's a possibility. Finally, #8 Highview Fella with Shaun Vallee in the bike might just suprise and add value to your exotic plays.

[Teach]

Race Eight:

#4 Honey N Lemonice looks like the horse to beat here. The horse won his last and his hit the board in four straight tries. He's very usable to exactas and trifectas. Underneath: #5 Mattie Can Tango could surprise. She has faced better. The horse did do a 1:56.3 at Chester last year (she won't do that time here). Driver Vinny Ginsburg is an improving reinsman who's capable of getting this horse into contention. Another horse who merits attention is the #1 Tradin Paint. The horse has the rail. She also has the services of Steve Smith. I wouldn't be surprised to see her on or near "the engine." #2 Keystone Demi finished third in her last. The horse has a good starting post and just might complete a tri or super. Finally, #3 RB'S Luck finished second in her last. The horse did face stakes competition at Pocono last spring.

[Teach]

Race Nine:

#3 Kassamatt looks like a stickout here. The horse has faced better in the past. He recently won in 1:58.3. All that would seem necessary is a clean trip. Underneath: #1 Koda will benefit from the pylons. The horse should be near the front when the pacers reach the quarter-pole. This horse has a good chance of being part of a tri or a super. #2 Quick And Deadly could do little from the seven-hole start late last December. The horse now moves inside and can be part of a gimmick. #4 Retirement Fund with Rick Pantano (I haven't seen his name in awhile) is a classy, veteran campaigner. He might just be able to complete a trifecta or super. Finally, #5 Mike In Motion fits in this company. It's possible that he could pick up the pieces in a superfecta.

[Teach]

Race Ten:

#4 So Confusing is a well-bred Beach Towel filly who's been right there in his last four starts in this company. She looks like the horse to beat, here. She'll benefit from the services of Jack Baggitt, Jr. Underneath: #2 Doc Lock with Greg Bowden (the last I saw Greg he was campaigning at Plainridge, Scarborough and Lewiston). This horse won last time by four lengths. Any repeat of that effort and this mare is right in the thick of things. #5 Pilgrim's Easel has finished third and first in her last two starts. She's certainly capable of hitting the board. Shaun Vallee helps. #6 MyOneAndOnly was narrowly second in a recent qualifier for both driver and horse. This Jenna's Beach Boy-bred filly might just surprise and add value to an exotic. Finally, last but not least, #8 Foxy Native with Steve Smith does draw the outside post. Yet, the mare has an early "turn of foot" and could, if she finds a tuck, be a factor here.

[Teach]

Race Eleven:

#1 April April with Steve Smith was second in her last in this company. She gets my tepid nod to take the Freehold finale. The rail helps. Underneath: #3 Badlands Woman with Vinny Ginsburg looks like the major danger. The horse has won three of her last four. In her current good form she shouldn't be ignored. #2 Fabulous Genie has faced better. This horse finally gets a decent starting post and should be able to get part in this race. #4 Get Well with Mickey Goldin has the ability to pick up the pieces in a superfecta. Finally, #8 Devin Hall has hit the board in three of her last four starts. Despite the outside starting slot, Newton "Yogi" Sheridan might be able to guide this B G's Bunny-bred mare into an exotic.