Odds too high?

[Robert Goren]

Does too high of odds scare you off? I had a horse at TB today that I would have liked if I got 5/2 and up. He went off 8-1 and lost. Is there such a thing as being too good to be true? If so, where do you draw the line?

[tbwinner]

If a horse opens up totally cold on the board, and stays cold I stay away. For example if horses I like on top generally are between 3-1 and 6-1. Say I like a horse and I'll accept odds 2-1 or better, if it opens up 10-1 stays up there with little drift on the board I won't be betting it.

[Overlay]

For me, it would depend on whether or not I could attribute the unexpectedly high odds to overbetting of other horses in the race for reasons that I could identify, and had already taken into consideration and/or discounted; and also on how much of an overlay the horse was in comparison to my fair odds. I might be more inclined to re-look (although not necessarily to change) my thinking on a horse that I had as a top pick with short fair odds, and that was going off at odds much higher than I had assigned, as opposed to a horse to which I had assigned higher fair odds. (Basing my odds on quantitative statistics -- where I know exactly how the line on any given horse was derived -- also helps me to have greater confidence than if I were just going on "feel", where I might start asking myself, "Did I really like the horse that much?")

[cj]

Does too high of odds scare you off? I had a horse at TB today that I would have liked if I got 5/2 and up. He went off 8-1 and lost. Is there such a thing as being too good to be true? If so, where do you draw the line?

If they scare you away, you should find another game in my opinion.

[GameTheory]

In some cases, absolutely. In other cases, the higher the better.

If you think the horse has a "conventional" advantage in speed or pace scenario or whatever (something you'd expect others to notice as well) that you expect to be decisive but he's also got a negative or two and some other horse also looks good, etc etc, i.e. a horse you'd reasonably expect to be 2nd-4th ranked in the betting and you find he's dead last at 30-1 or higher, then I'd stay away. There is something you're missing.

On the other hand, if you like a horse for a very unconventional or hidden reason that you really have to dig to know about, then your advantage probably is not factored into the odds at all and you should bet away.

Basically, you should know why you like a horse, and also the reasons why he is getting the approximate action he is getting. If he is bet way down or getting no action at all and you have no idea why, skip the race because you don't have a handle on it. There should be no big mysteries in your mind about the bet you are about to make.

[stu]

If you are off by an order of magnitude, then I would recommend that you take pause and consider what information the masses have that you don't. The markets will be inefficeint but not really inefficeint (save a Nassim Taleb-like black swan)

Evens going off at 10-to-1 or 10-to-1 going off at 100-to-1 would defintely make check if I have the right track and race number :-)

[CBedo]

If I remember correctly Steve Fierro talked about a similar phenomena in his book (Four Quarters). He found in his research that if too many horses were overlayed, then probably his line was wrong.

I think you just have to keep records showing how these big "overlayed" horses run for you. If you make a horse 3/1 and he's 15/1, it doesn't take many victories to be in the black, so even if your horse is wrong and he wins 1/2 the time you expected, you're still making lots of money.

[classhandicapper]

For me it depends.

If I think I know something about a horse that is well hidden, then I would expect the horse to go off at long odds. So there's nothing to be afraid of.

If I don't know anything more about the horse than everyone else and was expecting a much shorter price but the odds are long, then I will start suspecting that perhaps "I" am missing something, working with an inaccurate speed figure etc... and will take a much closer look.

I'm a firm believe that there's a lot of inside money being bet. We notice it with first time starts, layoffs etc... but IMO it's always there. Sometimes those insiders know things about a horse's condition that the rest of us don't. So I like to bet on horses that look like an overlay when I can "EXPLAIN WHY IT'S NOT GETTING BET" and disagree with the public. The rest of the time I get cautious unless I am extremely thorough.

[Jay Trotter]

If they scare you away, you should find another game in my opinion.

Don't sugar coat it, tell him how you really feel!

[thaskalos]

If I was scared off by these suspiciously high odds, then I would have to to be scared off by other, suspiciously LOW odds...and my contention is that we can't play this game properly if we are scared!

Either we hold our opinion in higher regard than anybody else's...or we have no chance in this game.

Yes, the "smart" money will beat us sometimes...but it's the long run that counts.

[sevenall]

If the public "should" like the horse (good speed figure, good race last out, high profile jockey/trainer)...and he isn't bet...then I usually stay away.

If the public "shouldn't" like him (bad last race, layoff, etc) but I like him...then I will bet into him.

[HUSKER55]

I make my choices and place my bet and hope the odds are very very high because I am really that good.

When it hits I am the gift to mankind. When it doesn't hit I say, "next race".

The problem as I see it is that if you start second guessing yourself, after a while you will second guess everything that you do.

That is not good.

JMHO

[CBedo]

I make my choices and place my bet and hope the odds are very very high because I am really that good.That's the key though; you have to "know" and believe. If you don't know, then keep records and use the feedback loop to determine if you're handicapping these situations correctly.

[dansan]

odds to low scare me away had some good price horses come in today gulfstream is been myfavorite for a long time

[CincyHorseplayer]

I start evening out win/place bets and exacta combinations just because for me personally,horses over 8-1 odds finish 2nd so often.

[Tape Reader]

The higher the better, as long as they were, at some point, lower than the ML. I have caught some huge prices with this angle. (I only play off the tote board.)

[PaceAdvantage]

Serious font issues going on with your recent posts Tape Reader

[ranchwest]

Serious font issues going on with your recent posts Tape Reader

Yeah, if he is reading his own posts, he won't be reading tape or anything else for very long.

[beertapper]

on breeders' cup day, the higher the better !

[JustRalph]

If they scare you away, you should find another game in my opinion.

I have always felt this way. My dad used to beat on me for playing high odds horses. If I have an angle that I like........the higher the better. Toss in some good numbers and the right spot, I don't flinch. I trust in myself. I find that lately I have been using conditional bets and walking away after entering them. The odds sometimes surprise me.

A horse I was hoping to get 9-1 on at OPX the other day paid 34 and I didn't even know it until 8p that night when I pulled it up on my phone.

I rationalize it like this. It's pari-mutuel. I am willing to take some risks that others won't. I have lost tons of money on some high odds horses, but I have won on some nice ones too. Good software helps. If I think I know something most of the crowd doesn't....... go for it.

[highnote]

You need to think about your own oddsline. Your own oddsline can change right up until you place the bet. Use the latest information, adjust your line accordingly and then bet accordingly.

If you think a horse should be 2-1 and it's 8-1 and it makes you feel uncomfortable then make your line 4-1. Now your overlay is smaller. A smaller edge means smaller bet -- all else being equal.

You could also hedge your bets. Bet a little to win, a little more to place and a little more to show -- especially if the horse is underbet to place and/or show compared to his win price.

You could also do some weighted exotics with other contenders. Use your horse on top for a little and underneath for a little more.

If you're not using a computer to do the betting then are probably using a sort of gut-feeling, Gestalt-like approach. This is the way I approach it when I spend the day at Saratoga, for example, and it usually works well -- except when it doesn't. :D

[Johnny V]

Does too high of odds scare you off? I had a horse at TB today that I would have liked if I got 5/2 and up. He went off 8-1 and lost. Is there such a thing as being too good to be true? If so, where do you draw the line?
If I liked the horse hoping to get 5/2 then I am going to love him at 8-1. Too often it goes the other way towards lower odds. Take advantage of those overlays. I try never to let the odds scare me off. I will take another look seeing if I missed something somewhere but I remember times past when getting off a horse because of odds and going elsewhere, only to see that higher odds horse come in.

[gm10]

Does too high of odds scare you off? I had a horse at TB today that I would have liked if I got 5/2 and up. He went off 8-1 and lost. Is there such a thing as being too good to be true? If so, where do you draw the line?

It's a good question. My instinct would be to play the race, but my experience has taught me that when I'm this far off, it's a bad sign.

There are some exceptions - for example, when there is a short fav that you don't think much of, or when your personal speed figures show that an unexposed allowance horse is much better than what Beyer or Equibase are telling us, or some very specific trainer angle at a small track, then I would have no problem placing a large bet.

As another poster wrote, I think you need to have very specific reasons, reasons that other bettors are likely to be unaware of.

[PICSIX]

Does too high of odds scare you off? I had a horse at TB today that I would have liked if I got 5/2 and up. He went off 8-1 and lost. Is there such a thing as being too good to be true? If so, where do you draw the line?

What was your estimate of public odds? If you calculated they should make the horse even money and you're getting 8-1 something is wrong! However, if your public estimate was 15-1 and you're getting 8-1 bet with confidence--IMO.

Mike

[windoor]

In this very short 2011, I have hit for 27.8 to 1 and .07 to 1.

Last year I hit four races at over 40 to 1.

I never look at the odds for just this reason. I don't want them to influence my choices.

If you like the horse, play it.

Regards,

Windoor

[fmolf]

90% of my plays are on one of the top four public choices.Every once in awhile i find a viable longshot that slips thru the cracks.I have only been breaking even even losing some months on these horses

[windoor]

In this very short 2011, I have hit for 27.8 to 1 and .07 to 1.

Last year I hit four races at over 40 to 1.

I never look at the odds for just this reason. I don't want them to influence my choices.

If you like the horse, play it.

Regards,

Windoor

Sorry to quote myself, but as of yesterday my new high odd for the year is 56 to 1. Never looked at morning line and wagered early.

Race 4 #5 at Parx. Worth a look on the replay as it was a crazy race coming from dead last and going very wide.


Regards,

Windoor

[thaskalos]

Sorry to quote myself, but as of yesterday my new high odd for the year is 56 to 1. Never looked at morning line and wagered early.

Race 4 #5 at Parx. Worth a look on the replay as it was a crazy race coming from dead last and going very wide.


Regards,

WindoorCongratulations...and don't be sorry.

Any time you wager on a 56-1 winner, you unquestionably earn the right to quote yourself. :)

[johnhannibalsmith]

If I know the horse and I know the barn and they gamble, but they aren't today, I absolutely re-think my approach to the gamble.

[Zippy Chippy]

I can't stand that when my horses odds are too high I feel like everyone knows something and I don't bet. Loved Bucky 1st race FG I look at board thinking he'd be 7-2 or 4- 1range and he's 11-1. He obviously wins at 8-1.

This happens to me once a day and I promise myself it wont happen again.

[OntheRail]

If I look over the PP's and think a horse has a good shot against the field, I don't care what his odds are the higher the better. People get beat at the window or mouse as it would be all the time on short odds. A lot of folks abandon their picks and go with the tote thinking the public must KNOW something. So No if I like em' I'll roll with it.

[Bruddah]

One of the best scores I "ve ever made was on a horse at Oaklawn whose odds were 52-1. To be truthful, I went to the windows to bet him heavy at 26-1. Affter the race, my nephew called my attention to the fact the horses odds were now 52-1. Who says odds don't go up after betting your horse? ;)

[Robert Fischer]

I look at board thinking he'd be 7-2 or 4- 1range and he's 11-1.

It's fine to expect to see different odds, however I insist on understanding the "why". If I don't know why the odds are higher [or lower] than expected, I pass.

One of the most common reasons is a heavy favorite.

[Robert Fischer]

^
should add that when the odds are lower than expected there are some scenarios that reflect information.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Same topic covered here...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=79190

[MaTH716]

Only time it might scare me off, is if it's a certain trainer that usually takes money. For example if a Pletcher horse I like is dead on the board, I might give it a second thought. But for the most part I like to trust my handicapping/instincts and play the horse no matter how high the odds should drift.

[GaryG]

If I like a horse the longer the odds the better. Faint heart never won the fair damsel, or something like that. My best score was on a figure horse at 50-1, Martial Law in the Big Cap.

[Marlin]

I tend to do much better in races with fewer PP lines. So I obviously tend to play more of them. 2yo, 3yo, Maidens, NW2L, NW1X...etc. Dead on the board usually means I'm a loser. Now, I never don't play one I like but I scale it back a bit. I don't need to see my horse below my M/L, in fact I like it when it's a bit above it. However, when I like what I consider an 8-1 and see it going off at 20-1, I usually lose.

Edit: I usually lose means the occasional 20-1 winner is not enough to make it a net win. Basically I always lose.:)

[MickJ26]

They say the cardinal rule of handicapping is to never look at the tote board. I violated that rule a few years ago at Belmont. I talked myself out of a 65-1 shot because I was convinced I was looking for something that's not there. Needless to say, the horse won and the exacta I would've played was a signer for a dollar.

[Tape Reader]

They say the cardinal rule of handicapping is to never look at the tote board.

Whoever that cardinal was, IMO was an idiot.

[Stillriledup]

I'll only be scared a bit off if its a horse i think should take a certain amount of 'live' money and he doesnt take any.

But, if its a horse who figures to be 20-1 and he's 20-1, i wont have a problem betting him.

[Dave Schwartz]

I used to feel that way but not any more. Ever. I am now able to pull the trigger on horses as long as 100:1 or higher.

The secret lies in my new mantra:

Stop asking the question "Who WILL win the race?"
Instead, ask the question, "Who CAN win the race?"

I had to change my thinking because asking the first question puts me head-to-head with the whales often. Addressing the second question allows me to fish in less crowded waters.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[BetCrazyGirl]

I can't stand that when my horses odds are too high I feel like everyone knows something and I don't bet. Loved Bucky 1st race FG I look at board thinking he'd be 7-2 or 4- 1range and he's 11-1. He obviously wins at 8-1.

This happens to me once a day and I promise myself it wont happen again.

When I started to learn about horseracing my first year I hated to see the odds jumping high and would get scared off from the bet because of the factor that there might be something others are catching that I'm not (espeically with being new) but now I love seeing the odds go up on a bet I have.

I have to say that is one thing I have learned, don't worry what anyone else thinks and don't always go by odds since that is all odds really are telling, what other people think and you should really only care what you think of the horse. If I have study the horse and feel confident on that horse then go ahead with the bet and let the odds rise and hope for a good $$$.

Its actually these type of bets that have so far kept me going good. I know many are going to disagree with this but its how Ive been playing now and its been working out fine for me. Honestly I think people chase odds because they are looking for that 'insider' feel or edge to catch. I do use odds/payout with exotics if I haven't study the race good enough or having a hard time making a choice so can't say I don't use them completely but I don't like to weight to heavy on them.

[dav4463]

A $200 winner came in at Will Rogers Downs the other night. I would hate to think that horse had a chance and then back off because I figured his odds were too high!

[Robert Goren]

There is a difference in betting a horse that you like and you know is going to be a price and one that you like and you think you will be lucky to get 2/1, but is 10/1. Horses who look winners in the form are bet. When they are not, you have too wonder.

[Robert Fischer]

Only time it might scare me off, is if it's a certain trainer that usually takes money.

Good post.

[JustRalph]

been doing a lot of conditional betting, and totally ignoring the races while I am at work. It has really changed my plays....... been knocking down some serious price plays the last month or so........

If you don't know how bad a bet they are........ it's easy :lol:

[dav4463]

Now if you keep records and notice that you actually liked 400 horses that went off at 50-1 or higher and only one of them won....you might want to consider not playing 50-1 and up.

If you are only 0 for 30 or so.....keep betting...it only takes one to be up again!

[Southieboy]

150-1 winner at Australia around 30 minutes ago.

[Pace Cap'n]

Sarava.

[precocity]

personally it doesnt matter the odds to me I look for value and i mostly box ex, tri and supers but odds don't scare me at all..people put odds on horses? :rolleyes:

[pondman]

I'm rather selective...so if the crowd doesn't like it...more money for me. I stay away from the short price, but on the up side I let it ride.

[BlueShoe]

Only when this happens on a short priced standout favorite do I take notice. When the solid chalk that was to be keyed or singled in exotics should be odds on, but instead opens at 8-5 and stays there until late, and only drops to even money in the last couple of minutes, the "ice" warning light comes on. The betting seems to be saying that all is not well with this horse, and that the insiders and sharpies are staying away.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

My story: so my friend Dave and and I are heading south to Southwell (all-weather track in the UK) in July 2009. Its a long 6 hour drive from his house its an evening meet so we leave about 11:00AM. sure to get there by first post. I have my racingpost and I start talking to him about the races. oh man he loves a jockey trainer combo in the first. gauranteed to run. everybody knows this and going to be on it. he'll be 6-4 and he'll win easy.
he friggin waxing poetic about the jock and this trainer wheeling off winner after winner that this jock/trainer have had recently. man I am pysched. I know I got me some easy money coming my way. so we get to the track (in the middle of nowhere might I add). Its raining crazy. first price a book has on the sure thing 5-1. I leap at it with 100 pounds on. I hook up with my friend and tell him my bet. He goes white in the face. Allan, this horse has no chance. I say huh. The horse has drifted and no smart money is on him, maybe next time. sorry about your hundred pounds, I bet so and so. I say what about your 1 hour diatribe on the trainer and jock combo. LOL.

anyway to make a long story short. my horse off odds are 9-2. I am already consoled with being down for the night with no real chance to win. and low and behold I guess nobody told the jock it wasn't his night as he wins off by 3 going away.

I buy my friend supper and a guiness with some of my winnings. :-)

Allan

[Dave Schwartz]

Barnie,

Great story!

Keep 'em coming.


Dave

[Stillriledup]

My story: so my friend Dave and and I are heading south to Southwell (all-weather track in the UK) in July 2009. Its a long 6 hour drive from his house its an evening meet so we leave about 11:00AM. sure to get there by first post. I have my racingpost and I start talking to him about the races. oh man he loves a jockey trainer combo in the first. gauranteed to run. everybody knows this and going to be on it. he'll be 6-4 and he'll win easy.
he friggin waxing poetic about the jock and this trainer wheeling off winner after winner that this jock/trainer have had recently. man I am pysched. I know I got me some easy money coming my way. so we get to the track (in the middle of nowhere might I add). Its raining crazy. first price a book has on the sure thing 5-1. I leap at it with 100 pounds on. I hook up with my friend and tell him my bet. He goes white in the face. Allan, this horse has no chance. I say huh. The horse has drifted and no smart money is on him, maybe next time. sorry about your hundred pounds, I bet so and so. I say what about your 1 hour diatribe on the trainer and jock combo. LOL.

anyway to make a long story short. my horse off odds are 9-2. I am already consoled with being down for the night with no real chance to win. and low and behold I guess nobody told the jock it wasn't his night as he wins off by 3 going away.

I buy my friend supper and a guiness with some of my winnings. :-)

Allan

wow ,great story!

I bet your buddy was beside himself for talking himself off the pick!